Yen Firms Near 158 as BoJ Signals Faster Hikes and Wall Street Breaks — 158.65 Resistance Holds

The Japanese yen was the strongest major currency on Thursday, November 5. USD/JPY drifted lower for a second straight session and traded near 158.00 in the U.S. afternoon, down from Wednesday’s close of 158.45. The pair touched 158.25 during the European session after Asian trade printed 158.01 at 10:06 a.m. Hong Kong time. The yen gained against all of its major peers as a sharp selloff in U.S. technology and chip stocks pushed investors into safe havens, and as minutes from the Bank of Japan’s September meeting reinforced bets on a December rate hike.

Wednesday set the stage. As U.S. midterm results landed on November 4, USD/JPY fell about 0.87 yen in a single hour to a low of 157.38, the weekly bottom, before recovering to 158.67 the same evening, within 0.10 yen of the pre-results high near 158.76. The rebound came as the yen’s safe-haven bid faded and global stocks rallied. Thursday reversed that rally as equities collapsed.

The bigger picture is a pair pinned near multi-decade highs. USD/JPY’s 52-week range runs from 152.64 to 163.86. The yen has weakened 3.48% against the dollar over 12 months and 0.18% over the past month. USD/JPY rose 1.1% in October, its third failed run at 160 since August. At 158.00, the pair sits 1.3% below the 160 level that Japanese authorities have defended twice this year.

The thesis for this forecast is direct. USD/JPY is caught between a wide interest-rate gap that rewards selling the yen and an official ceiling at 160 that punishes it. The Federal Reserve holds at 3.75% to 4.00%, and the Bank of Japan sits at 1.25%. That 250-to-275-basis-point policy gap fuels carry trades that keep pushing the pair higher. But Tokyo intervened in April and again in July alongside the U.S. Treasury, and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama keeps warning she will act against disorderly moves. Now the BoJ is signaling a December hike, and Thursday’s equity rout showed the yen still works as a haven. The base case is a 156.00 to 159.00 range with a mild bearish tilt into the December 17-18 BoJ meeting.

The Midterm Whipsaw: 157.38 to 158.67 in Hours, Then Back Down

Wednesday’s price action shows how jumpy the pair has become. As U.S. election results came in on November 4, the dollar sold off sharply across the board. USD/JPY lost about 0.87 yen in a single hour and hit 157.38, a weekly low. A separate data feed recorded a range of 157.40 to 158.60 for the day.

The first move was a classic risk-off reaction. Democrats were winning both chambers of Congress, and early in the count, uncertainty about the outcome pushed investors toward the yen. Once the results became clear and markets judged the outcome as removing political uncertainty, the haven bid faded fast. Global stocks rallied, the Dow surged 3% on the day, and USD/JPY climbed back above 158.50 by early evening Hong Kong time. By 23:00 it reached near 158.67.

That rebound left the pair almost exactly where it started. The pre-results high near 158.76 sat just 0.09 yen above the evening peak. The election shock lasted hours, not days.

Thursday told a different story. As Asian trading opened, USD/JPY drifted lower from its Wednesday close of 158.45. Hawkish Bank of Japan minutes released in Tokyo gave the yen an early lift. By 10:06 a.m. Hong Kong time, the pair traded at 158.01, between its 50-period hourly moving average at 158.24 and its 200-period average at 157.81.

The European session saw a modest bounce to 158.25 as the dollar steadied on U.S. data. Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000, matching a 57-year low, and Fed officials delivered hawkish remarks. But the bounce stalled. Once U.S. stocks opened and the Nasdaq began its slide toward a 4.3% loss, the yen attracted haven buying again. The dollar gave up its earlier gains, and USD/JPY slipped back toward 158.00.

The pattern matters. Each attempt to push USD/JPY above 158.65, where the 200-day simple moving average sits, has failed. Each dip toward 157.40 has found buyers. The pair is stuck in a compressed range where risk sentiment drives the daily direction and the bigger forces, rate differentials and intervention risk, set the outer bounds.

The BoJ Minutes: Members Agree to Keep Raising Rates

Thursday’s main yen-specific catalyst came from Tokyo. Minutes of the Bank of Japan’s September meeting, released early Thursday, showed policymakers concurred it was suitable for the bank to keep increasing the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary easing. That language reaffirmed market bets on a December hike.

One member went further. According to the minutes, one policymaker said the BoJ would need to speed up rate hikes if inflation showed signs of overshooting expectations. That is a notable shift for a central bank that spent more than a decade fighting deflation. The discussion is no longer about whether to normalize policy. It is about how fast.

The September meeting delivered a hike. The BoJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on September 18, effective September 24, after a first hike on June 16 and a hold in July. That took the short-term policy rate, the target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate, to around 1.25%. The minutes describe the debate that led to that move and point toward more.

The minutes landed on the right day for the yen. With U.S. stocks falling and the dollar softening, hawkish BoJ signals added a fundamental reason to buy yen on top of the haven demand. The combination pushed USD/JPY lower for a second straight session.

The minutes also confirm the trajectory the market expects. Bets on a December hike rose after the release. Any attempted recovery in USD/JPY ahead of Friday’s U.S. payrolls is more likely to be sold into amid speculation that Japanese authorities will step in to support the domestic currency.

There is a limit to what minutes can do. They describe a meeting that took place in September, before the October hold and before the latest market moves. Traders already knew the BoJ was on a hiking path. The minutes added detail, especially the comment about speeding up hikes, but they did not change the timeline. The December decision will depend on data released between now and December 18.

For the forecast, the minutes support a lower USD/JPY path into December. A central bank openly discussing faster hikes raises the odds that the policy gap with the Fed narrows, which is the single most important driver for the pair over the medium term.

The October Hold: 1.25%, an 8-1 Vote and Inflation at Target

The BoJ’s most recent decision set up December. On October 30, the Policy Board held the policy rate at around 1.25% in an 8-1 vote. Board member Hajime Takata dissented, proposing an immediate hike to 1.50%. The other eight members, Governor Kazuo Ueda, deputy governors Ryozo Himino and Shinichi Uchida, and board members Naoki Tamura, Junko Koeda, Kazuyuki Masu, Toichiro Asada and Junko Sato, voted to hold.

The bigger news was the inflation assessment. The BoJ declared that underlying inflation had reached its 2% target, the first time in 13 years. The July Outlook Report had described underlying CPI inflation as approaching 2%. The October report said it was generally consistent with 2%. The bank projected core inflation at 2.6% for fiscal 2027.

That shift opened the door. Ueda adopted a hawkish tone at his press conference, signaling strong prospects for a December hike hours after declaring the inflation goal had been met. He said the policy phase is changing and that decisions would be made at each meeting, including the next one. He said the board would discuss monetary policy with particular attention to upside inflation risks at the December meeting.

Economists moved quickly. A survey published October 22 found 83% of economists expected the next BoJ hike in December, up from 35% a month earlier. More than 80% now expect a December move, with some forecasts pointing to a terminal rate of 2% in 2027. A December hike would take the policy rate to 1.50%.

Market pricing has wavered. Overnight swap markets priced December hike odds at 77.3% before the October meeting and 68.4% right after, as Ueda held off on an immediate move. Thursday’s minutes pushed odds back up.

The path beyond 1.50% is less clear. Japan is approaching its neutral interest rate, the level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. Households and businesses accustomed to decades of near-zero borrowing costs may feel each hike more acutely than in other economies. Ueda has stressed the need to contain inflation without undermining the recovery.

For USD/JPY, the October decision changed the conversation. Before, traders debated whether the BoJ would keep hiking. Now they debate how far and how fast. That shift supports the yen over the medium term.

The Rate Gap: 250 Basis Points of Carry Still Favors the Dollar

Despite the BoJ’s hawkish turn, the interest-rate gap remains huge. The Federal Reserve holds its benchmark at 3.75% to 4.00%. The BoJ sits at 1.25%. That leaves a policy-rate differential of 250 to 275 basis points in favor of the dollar.

Bond yields tell the same story. As of October 29, Japan’s 10-year government bond yielded 2.876%, the 5-year 2.285% and the 2-year 1.901%. On Thursday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yielded 4.831% and the 2-year 4.50%. That leaves a gap of roughly 195 basis points at 10 years and 260 basis points at 2 years.

That gap fuels the carry trade. Investors borrow in yen at low rates and invest in higher-yielding dollar assets, earning the spread. As long as the exchange rate stays stable or moves in their favor, carry traders profit. Their selling of yen to fund dollar purchases has been the main force pushing USD/JPY toward 160 all year.

A December BoJ hike to 1.50% would narrow the gap only modestly. If the Fed also hikes in December, as markets price at 74.5% odds, the gap stays roughly unchanged. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Thursday that the Fed needs at least two more quarter-point hikes. If both happen and the BoJ moves only once, the policy gap could widen.

That is the core problem for yen bulls. The BoJ is hiking, but the Fed is hiking too. Unless the BoJ raises rates well above 1.75% to 2% within a short period, markets are unlikely to change the perception that Japan is behind the curve. Narrowing the gap enough to reverse the carry trade would require either much faster BoJ hikes or Fed cuts, and neither is in the base case.

Lower U.S. yields help at the margin. The U.S. 2-year yield fell more than 8 basis points to 4.50% on Thursday as investors sought safety, and the 10-year fell to 4.831%. Easing inflation concerns after Wednesday’s 8% oil crash, plus falling U.S. bond yields, weighed on the dollar and pressured USD/JPY. But a few basis points of movement cannot offset a 250-point structural gap.

For the forecast, the rate differential sets a floor under USD/JPY. As long as the gap stays above 200 basis points, carry traders will keep buying dips, and a sustained move below 152 to 155 is unlikely without a major shift in Fed policy.

The 160 Ceiling: Two Interventions and a Joint U.S.-Japan Operation

The other side of the pair is Tokyo’s intervention line. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has never named an official intervention level, but its behavior in 2026 has made 160 the line traders respect. Three runs at 160 since August have all failed.

The first intervention came in April. On April 30, USD/JPY hit a peak of 160.73. Finance Minister Katayama warned authorities were nearing the time to take bold action, and Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura followed with what he called a final advisory to yen bears. The Ministry of Finance and BoJ then carried out direct yen-buying, dollar-selling intervention. USD/JPY plunged 2.25% in a single session, falling roughly 500 pips from 160.73 to test 156.00, the yen’s strongest one-day rally in more than three years. Japan spent ¥11.7 trillion, about $73.14 billion, since April to support the yen, the largest-ever intervention round in a month.

The second came in late July, with U.S. help. Japan and the U.S. Treasury carried out a coordinated intervention, the first joint yen-buying operation between the two countries. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the coordinated actions countered disorderly yen movements, citing a joint statement issued in September 2025. Estimates put the Japanese operation near $75 billion and the U.S. operation at $5 billion to $10 billion. The U.S. used euros rather than dollars to buy yen, possibly to limit Treasury sales.

The U.S. role matters. American participation signaled that Washington views yen weakness as a broader financial stability issue. Japan is the world’s largest holder of U.S. debt, and Bessent’s participation may have aimed to discourage Japan from selling Treasuries to fund yen purchases. Japan’s finance minister later said future dollar-selling intervention would be financed through the Fed’s foreign repo facility to avoid selling U.S. Treasuries. Japan held about $1 trillion in foreign reserves at the end of April.

The limits of intervention are clear. After both operations, the yen ground weaker again because the underlying rate gap did not change. Intervention can counter disorderly markets, catch out stretched positions and move exchange rates a few percent, but it cannot produce lasting changes unless accompanied by fundamental shifts.

For the forecast, 160 is the ceiling. Every move toward 159 brings verbal warnings, and every move toward 160 brings the threat of a sudden 4-to-6-yen drop.

Verbal Warnings: Katayama Keeps the Threat Alive

Tokyo has kept up a steady drumbeat of warnings. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned speculators on October 15 that she was prepared to act in the currency market again if needed, stressing that the stance of Washington and Tokyo had not changed since their joint July intervention. The yen strengthened past 158 to a one-week high on that warning.

She repeated the message on October 27 with decisive-action language. She said the government stands ready to take decisive action in the FX market and is always watching moves with a high sense of urgency, including at this very moment. She stressed that yen moves must reflect economic fundamentals and that she hopes to maintain market trust in the yen and in the Takaichi administration’s fiscal policy.

On Sunday, November 2, she went further. Katayama said the joint foreign exchange statement with the U.S. remains in effect and that Tokyo will act against disorderly currency moves. She noted that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has described yen undervaluation as problematic, a reminder that concern reaches the top of the government. She declined to name specific levels.

Earlier comments set the reference point. In October interviews with several media outlets, Katayama said USD/JPY levels above 160 ahead of the coordinated intervention at the end of July represented an extremely weak yen. With President Trump also expressing concern about yen undervaluation, her remarks could be read as signaling that authorities would not tolerate a sustained rise above 160.

The warnings work, but only briefly. After the November 2 comments, the yen slipped anyway, suggesting markets saw little immediate deterrent. Katayama’s remarks keep intervention in the background without signaling that action is imminent. They are designed to keep pressure on yen sellers and slow the approach to 160, not to reverse the trend.

Some analysts suggest 158 has replaced 160 as the level the market watches most closely, since warnings intensify around that zone. With USD/JPY at 158.00, the pair sits right in the warning zone.

For the forecast, verbal warnings cap rallies above 158.65 to 159. They will intensify if the pair approaches 159.50, and actual intervention becomes likely if it tests 160.

Safe Haven Returns: The Yen Rallies as Wall Street Breaks

Thursday reminded markets that the yen still behaves as a safe haven. The yen outperformed all its major peers as traders sought safety amid a sharp selloff in U.S. equities led by technology and chip shares. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.3% into correction, the S&P 500 dropped 3.14% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index collapsed 11%, its worst day since March 2020.

The mechanism runs through carry unwinds. When risk assets fall sharply, investors who funded leveraged positions by borrowing in yen must repay those loans. That forces them to buy yen, which strengthens it. Japanese investors also repatriate funds from overseas assets during market stress, adding to yen demand.

The pattern held on Wednesday too, in reverse. As election uncertainty peaked, the yen rallied. Once global stocks rallied on the result, the haven bid faded and USD/JPY recovered. Thursday’s equity collapse brought the haven bid back.

Asian markets felt the pressure. The Nikkei 225 fell sharply as the chip rout spread across Asia. South Korea’s Kospi also dropped, with Samsung Electronics down 7.5% and SK Hynix down 9.5%. Japanese chip-equipment makers sold off.

Toyota bucked the trend. Toyota’s Tokyo shares jumped more than 16%, the biggest one-day gain since 1987, on a profit upgrade and an $89 billion shareholder-return plan. Investors sold AI-related Japanese stocks and bought blue-chip exporters, a rotation that does not by itself move the yen but shows the depth of repositioning in Japanese markets.

The VIX jumped as high as 23.46, a 41.6% spike, confirming the stress. Gold rose 1.48% to $4,121.74. Bitcoin fell 4.97%. The yen and gold were the clear winners on a risk-off day.

For the forecast, risk sentiment is now a key short-term driver. If U.S. tech stocks keep falling, the yen will keep attracting haven flows, pushing USD/JPY toward 157.40 and possibly 156.00. If the Nasdaq stabilizes, the haven bid fades and the rate gap reasserts itself, pushing the pair back toward 158.65.

The Dollar Side: 189,000 Claims, Fed Hawks and Friday’s Payrolls

The dollar fought back on U.S. data before the equity rout took over. Initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 189,000 for the week ended October 31, matching a 57-year low and beating the 196,000 consensus. Third-quarter productivity rose at a 3.6% annualized pace, well above the 2.8% forecast, and unit labor costs fell 0.7%.

Fed officials added hawkish signals. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said policy needs to move to a restrictive stance because inflation is too high and moving in the wrong direction. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said gradual tightening makes sense. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed needs at least two more quarter-point hikes. Markets price a 74.5% chance of a December Fed hike, down from 79.9% a week earlier.

The dollar index edged up to 101.51 on the data, after falling to a five-week low on Wednesday. But the dollar gave up its earlier gains against the yen as equities slid. Against the yen specifically, haven demand outweighed the data.

Friday’s October payrolls report is the next big test. Consensus sits at 65,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.2%. September showed 29,000 jobs added, with July and August revised down by 60,000. ADP counted 86,000 private jobs in October, above expectations.

The payrolls report hits USD/JPY through two channels. A strong report would push Fed hike odds toward 90%, lift U.S. yields and widen the rate gap, pushing USD/JPY higher. But if the pair approaches 159 on a strong print, intervention risk rises. A weak report would cut hike odds, lower U.S. yields and push USD/JPY toward 157 and below.

Next week brings U.S. October CPI on Tuesday, November 10, expected at 3.7% year over year. A hot print would firm Fed hike bets. A soft print would help the yen.

The Fed meets December 9. The BoJ meets December 17-18. Both central banks are expected to hike. The relative size and guidance of those moves will set the direction for USD/JPY into year-end.

For the forecast, U.S. data has upside asymmetry for USD/JPY in the short term, capped by intervention risk. A strong payrolls print could push the pair to 159, but not much beyond.

Japan’s Fundamentals: Oil, Exporters and Takaichi’s Fiscal Policy

Japan’s economy feeds into the yen through several channels. Oil is the biggest. Japan imports nearly all its energy and relies heavily on Middle East crude. The Iran war pushed Brent crude above $126 at its peak, worsening Japan’s trade balance and weighing on the yen. Wednesday’s 8% oil crash, which took Brent to $94.62, helps Japan’s terms of trade. Thursday’s bounce to $97.17 offset some of that relief.

Earlier in 2026, oil prices drove yen weakness directly. The yen came under pressure from surging oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, given Japan’s reliance on oil imports from the region. In March, the yen weakened past 160 as crude spiked. A lasting drop in oil would remove a structural drag on the yen.

Exporters benefit from yen weakness. Toyota reported that its April-to-September average exchange rate was about ¥159 per dollar, roughly 13 yen weaker than a year earlier, boosting translated profits. Toyota assumes ¥157 per dollar for the rest of its fiscal year, meaning even Japan’s largest exporter is planning for some yen strength from current levels.

Inflation is now at target. The BoJ declared underlying inflation consistent with 2% in October. Yen weakness adds to import costs at a time when Japanese manufacturers are already reporting firmer input price inflation. A weak yen dampens real incomes, making it unpopular with households. That political pressure pushes both the BoJ and the government toward supporting the currency.

Fiscal policy is a wild card. Prime Minister Takaichi’s administration has pursued expansionary fiscal policy, including stimulus aimed at easing household living costs. Larger deficits can weigh on the yen if investors worry about Japan’s debt. Takaichi has said fiscal policy would be managed while closely monitoring its impact on interest rates and exchange rates, signaling an intention to maintain confidence in the yen.

JGB yields reflect both forces. The 10-year JGB yield at 2.876% is near its highest in decades, driven by BoJ hikes and fiscal concerns. Higher JGB yields narrow the gap with Treasuries and support the yen, but if they rise because of fiscal stress rather than policy, the effect can be negative.

For the forecast, Japan’s fundamentals lean toward a gradually stronger yen. Inflation at target, a BoJ hiking cycle, political pressure against yen weakness and lower oil all point the same way. The rate gap with the U.S. is the counterweight.

The Yen Crosses: EUR/JPY at 177.85, Sterling Supported by the BoE

The yen crosses show where Thursday’s strength came from. EUR/JPY traded at 177.85 in the ECB’s reference fixing. The euro faced pressure from France’s budget crisis and a weak euro-area composite PMI of 51.7, while the yen gained on haven demand. With the ECB at 2.50% and the BoJ at 1.25%, the euro carries a smaller rate advantage over the yen than the dollar does, which makes EUR/JPY less supported by carry.

Sterling held up better. GBP/USD traded near 1.3465 after the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% on Thursday, its first hike since 2023. That implies GBP/JPY near 212.7. With the BoE at 4% and the BoJ at 1.25%, sterling carries a 275-basis-point rate advantage over the yen, the widest among the major European currencies. The BoE’s hawkish guidance kept sterling bid even as risk sentiment soured.

The yen outperformed across the board. It gained against all its major peers on Thursday as traders sought safety amid the U.S. equity selloff. That broad-based strength points to haven demand and carry unwinds rather than a dollar-specific move.

The Swiss franc also gained. Like the yen, the franc tends to strengthen during risk-off episodes. EUR/CHF traded at 0.9180 in the ECB fixing.

Commodity currencies lagged. The Australian dollar consolidated near 0.7000 against a weak U.S. dollar but underperformed the yen as risk appetite fell. AUD/JPY and other high-beta yen crosses typically fall hardest during equity selloffs, since they are popular carry trades.

The crosses matter for the broader yen picture. Carry traders often fund positions across multiple currencies, not just the dollar. A broad carry unwind lifts the yen against everything, and the crosses can move more than USD/JPY because they lack the dollar’s own haven appeal.

For the forecast, yen crosses are the purest expression of risk sentiment. If the equity selloff continues, crosses like AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY could fall faster than USD/JPY. If risk appetite returns, they would rebound faster.

The Technical Map: 158.65 Ceiling, 157.40 Floor, 160 the Line

USD/JPY’s chart shows a mildly bearish near-term bias. The pair has repeatedly failed to build on gains above the 200-day simple moving average at 158.65. Thursday’s high at 158.25 stayed well below that level. Resistance starts at 158.25, then 158.65, the 200-day SMA, followed by 158.67 and 158.76, Wednesday’s evening high and the pre-election peak.

Above those levels, 159.00 marks the zone where verbal warnings intensify. The 160.00 level is the intervention line, and the 160.73 April peak marks where Tokyo last stepped in. The 52-week high at 163.86 sits well above, a level that would require a breakdown in Tokyo’s defense.

Support starts at the 200-period hourly moving average near 157.81. Below that, 157.40 marks Wednesday’s election-night low and the weekly bottom. A break of 157.40 would open a path toward 157.00 and then 156.00, the level tested after April’s intervention. The 52-week low at 152.64 sits far below.

The hourly chart showed a pivot at the 50-period average near 158.24. The pair traded between the 50-period and 200-period averages through much of Thursday, a sign of consolidation. Momentum indicators are flat to slightly negative.

The broader range has held for months. USD/JPY has traded largely between 152 and 160 since late January, with interventions marking the top. October’s 1.1% gain took the pair to the upper part of that range but failed to break 160 for a third time since August.

Volatility is compressed. The pair’s daily ranges have been narrow aside from election-day spikes. Compressed volatility near a known intervention level sets up asymmetric risk: modest upside to 160, sharp downside if Tokyo acts.

The pattern of failures above the 200-day SMA is the key technical signal. Repeated rejections at 158.65 suggest sellers are defending that zone, likely including exporters, real-money accounts and traders positioning for intervention. Until the pair closes above 158.76, the near-term bias stays mildly bearish.

USD/JPY Forecast Verdict: Range-Bound With a Bearish Tilt, 160 Caps and the BoJ Pulls Lower

USD/JPY’s Thursday session was bearish, and the forecast for the next two weeks leans the same way within a range. The pair near 158.00 is down from Wednesday’s close of 158.45 after failing again below the 200-day simple moving average at 158.65. The yen outperformed every major currency as U.S. tech stocks collapsed and hawkish BoJ minutes reinforced December hike bets.

The rate gap supports the dollar. The Fed at 3.75% to 4.00% against the BoJ at 1.25% leaves a 250-to-275-basis-point policy spread. U.S. 2-year Treasuries yield 4.50% against 1.901% on 2-year JGBs. Carry traders keep buying dips, and Fed officials, from Hammack to Logan, keep pointing to more hikes. Friday’s payrolls, with consensus at 65,000, could push the pair toward 159 on a strong print.

The ceiling caps the upside. Tokyo intervened in April after USD/JPY hit 160.73, sending it 500 pips lower, and again in July alongside the U.S. Treasury in the first joint operation. Finance Minister Katayama said on November 2 that the joint statement remains alive and Tokyo will act against disorderly moves. Every approach to 160 has failed three times since August.

The BoJ is turning. It declared underlying inflation at 2% for the first time in 13 years, held at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote with Takata dissenting for a hike, and Ueda signaled strong prospects for a December move. More than 80% of economists expect the BoJ to hike to 1.50% on December 18. Thursday’s minutes showed one member wants faster hikes if inflation overshoots.

Base case for the next 10 trading days: range trade between 156.00 and 159.00 with a bearish tilt, as Friday’s payrolls, Tuesday’s U.S. CPI and risk sentiment set direction. A daily close below 157.40 targets 156.00. A daily close above 158.76 targets 159.50, where intervention risk becomes acute. The carry trade keeps the floor firm, but with Tokyo guarding 160 and the BoJ heading higher, the path of least resistance into December runs lower.

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