Yen Grinds Near a 40-Year Low at 161.50 as Fed Hawkishness Overwhelms the Bank of Japan's Historic Tightening

USD/JPY traded near 161.50 Tuesday, edging up 0.14% within a tight 160.47-to-161.52 band and holding just below the 162-plus level that recently marked its highest point in around 40 years — a peak not sustained since the mid-1980s. The yen sits pinned near multi-decade lows against the dollar, unable to strengthen meaningfully even as the Bank of Japan executes the most significant monetary normalization in its modern history. The pair is elevated, and the reason is a rate gap that refuses to close.

The setup is a paradox that defines the yen in 2026. The BoJ has raised its policy rate to 1.00% and signaled a hawkish stance — a historic shift after decades of zero and negative rates — which should support the yen. Yet USD/JPY rose above 162 anyway, driven by growing expectations for Fed rate hikes as the Iran oil shock pushed US inflation higher. The dollar's hawkish momentum has overwhelmed the yen's tightening, keeping the pair near its four-decade high.

The mechanics come down to the rate differential. With the Fed holding at 3.50%-3.75% and leaning toward hikes while the BoJ sits at 1.00%, the gap stands near 250-275 basis points — narrower than the roughly 325 basis points that prevailed in early 2026, but still wide enough to power the carry trade that keeps the yen weak. Money borrows cheap yen and buys higher-yielding dollars, and every day the yen stays flat or weakens, that trade pays.

Two forces cap the upside and create the tension in the pair. Japan's Ministry of Finance has a history of intervening to defend the yen at multi-decade lows, and 162 sits squarely in intervention territory, which acts as a soft ceiling. Layered on that is the ever-present threat of a violent carry-trade unwind — the kind that cascaded through markets in August 2024 — where a sudden yen spike triggers margin calls and forced liquidation.

The catalysts that break the standoff are the Fed's July 29 decision and the BoJ's path toward a possible September hike. At 161.50, the pair is caught between a rate differential that pushes it higher and an intervention-plus-unwind risk that caps it. The 162 level is the intervention line, 165 is the bull target, and a sudden yen spike is the tail risk that could send the pair violently lower. The yen is weak, but it is weak on borrowed time.

The Rate Differential That Drives Everything

The single most important variable in USD/JPY is the interest-rate gap between the two central banks, and right now it favors the dollar decisively. The Fed's policy rate sits at 3.50%-3.75% while the BoJ's is at 1.00%, a differential of roughly 250-275 basis points that makes holding dollars far more rewarding than holding yen. That gap is the gravitational force pulling USD/JPY toward its multi-decade highs.

The differential has been narrowing, which is the yen bulls' hope, but slowly. In early 2026 the gap stood near 325 basis points, and it has compressed toward 250-275 basis points as the BoJ raised rates from 0.50% to 1.00%. The pace of that compression determines whether the yen bulls or the dollar bulls are right — a fast narrowing would strengthen the yen, while a slow one keeps the carry trade alive and the pair elevated.

The direction of the compression matters as much as the pace. The narrowing was supposed to come from both sides — the BoJ raising rates while the Fed cut them — but the Iran oil shock changed the Fed's trajectory. Instead of cutting, the Fed is now leaning toward hikes to combat energy-driven inflation, which means the differential is compressing only from the BoJ side while the Fed side holds firm or widens. That asymmetry has kept the gap wider than the yen bulls expected.

The historical context shows how extreme the current gap is. The Fed, ECB, and Bank of England all tightened aggressively in 2022-2023 while Japan did not, a divergence that pushed USD/JPY to 161 in July 2024, a level not seen since 1986. The pair has now pushed above that 2024 high, extending the yen's weakness to fresh multi-decade extremes as the rate gap persists.

The differential is why the yen's fundamentals do not drive its price in the near term. The BoJ's historic normalization is genuinely yen-supportive over time, but as long as the Fed holds a 250-275 basis point advantage, the carry trade overwhelms the tightening story and keeps the yen pinned near its lows. The gap sets the price, and the gap is wide.

The Fed's Hawkish Turn and the Oil Shock

The dollar side of the pair carries a hawkish momentum that has been the yen's undoing. USD/JPY rose above 162 specifically on growing expectations for Fed rate hikes, as the Iran conflict drove oil prices sharply higher and pushed US inflation expectations up. The energy shock forced the Fed to abandon any easing bias and lean toward tightening, and that hawkish pivot lifted the dollar against every major currency, the yen included.

The oil-inflation channel is the transmission mechanism. Crude at $91 Brent feeds directly into US inflation through gasoline and transportation costs, and the resulting inflation impulse gives the Fed cover to hold rates high or hike. Every escalation in the Iran conflict that lifts oil reinforces the Fed's hawkish stance, which in turn widens the effective rate advantage over the BoJ and pushes USD/JPY higher.

The reversal from the prior expectation is stark. Earlier in 2026, the market expected the Fed to cut rates toward 3.50%-3.75%, which would have compressed the differential and supported the yen. The oil shock flipped that expectation — now the Fed is expected to hold or hike, keeping the differential wide and the yen weak. The energy-driven change in the Fed's path is a core reason the yen has failed to benefit from the BoJ's tightening.

There is a counterargument that the Fed's support may not last. Some forecasts note that the dollar's strength could fade if crude and gasoline prices fall and political pressure for rate cuts mounts, which would compress the differential and support the yen. But that scenario assumed oil would decline — and the Iran re-escalation has instead pushed crude back to five-week highs, keeping the inflation impulse and the Fed's hawkishness intact for now.

The July 29 Fed meeting is where the hawkish bet gets tested. If the Fed confirms its lean toward hikes on the energy-inflation risk, the dollar's advantage over the yen widens and USD/JPY presses toward 162 and the intervention zone. If the Fed softens in response to cooling core inflation and weak labor data, the differential narrows and the yen gets relief. The oil-driven Fed hawkishness is the yen's biggest near-term headwind, and it hinges on the conflict and the Fed's read of it.

The BoJ's Historic Normalization, Overwhelmed

The Bank of Japan is executing the most consequential policy shift in its modern history, and it deserves recognition even as the yen languishes. After decades of zero and negative interest rates, the BoJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00% and signaled a hawkish stance — a historic turning point that marks Japan's exit from the ultra-loose policy that defined its economy for a generation. The BoJ controls the single most important variable in any USD/JPY forecast: Japanese interest rates.

The normalization timeline moved fast by BoJ standards. Yield curve control ended in March 2024, rates rose from -0.1% to 0.25% by July 2024, then to 0.50% in January 2025, and now to 1.00% in 2026 — a steady march away from the negative-rate regime. Each hike narrowed the rate gap with the Fed and, in theory, should have supported the yen, yet the currency remains near its lows.

The problem is credibility and pace. Curbing yen weakness is likely to take time because the market is not yet fully convinced of the BoJ's commitment to sustained tightening. After decades of dovishness, the BoJ has to prove it will keep raising rates, and until the market believes the tightening is durable, the yen struggles to rally on the hikes already delivered. The BoJ is fighting a credibility deficit built over thirty years.

The speculation about further tightening provides some yen support. Expectations of an additional BoJ rate hike in September give the yen a floor, because the prospect of a narrower rate differential ahead keeps some money from pressing short-yen positions too aggressively. The BoJ's hawkish signal and the September hike speculation are the yen's fundamental support against the carry-trade selling.

The BoJ's dilemma is that its tightening is being drowned out by forces beyond its control. The Fed's oil-driven hawkishness, the wide carry differential, and Japan's deteriorating trade balance all push the yen weaker faster than the BoJ's 1.00% rate can pull it stronger. The central bank is doing the historic work of normalization, but the external forces — a hawkish Fed and a global oil shock — are overwhelming it, which is why USD/JPY sits near a 40-year high despite the most aggressive BoJ tightening in decades.

The Carry Trade That Keeps the Yen Weak

The dominant speculative force in USD/JPY is the carry trade, and it explains the yen's persistent weakness better than any single factor. The trade is simple: borrow yen at 1.00%, buy US Treasuries yielding around 4.00%, and pocket the roughly 3% annual difference. At scale, hedge funds run billions in carry positions, and the trade is profitable every day the yen stays flat or weakens. That structural short-yen positioning keeps the currency pinned near its lows.

The carry trade's power comes from its self-reinforcing nature. As money borrows yen to buy dollars, it sells yen in the process, pushing the currency weaker — which makes the trade more profitable and attracts more participants, weakening the yen further. The trade feeds on itself as long as the rate differential holds and the yen keeps depreciating, creating a persistent downward pressure that fundamental yen-supportive factors struggle to overcome.

The 2026 environment has narrowed the carry but not killed it. The BoJ raising the borrowing cost from 0.50% to 1.00% and the compression of the differential toward 250-275 basis points have squeezed the trade from both ends, reducing its profitability. But narrowing is not the same as ending — even a 250-275 basis point differential still pays in a leveraged position, so the carry trade remains attractive and the short-yen positioning remains large.

The structural dollar demand from Japan reinforces the carry flows. Japanese corporates have persistent dollar needs for their international operations and investments, generating structural demand for the dollar against the yen that adds to the speculative carry selling. That combination of structural corporate demand and speculative carry positioning is why some forecasts target USD/JPY as high as 164 despite expecting the rate differential to narrow.

The carry trade's persistence is the yen's near-term prison. As long as the differential stays wide enough to pay — and 250-275 basis points is wide enough — the carry trade keeps money short the yen, overwhelming the BoJ's tightening and the yen's safe-haven appeal. The trade only becomes a problem for the dollar bulls when it unwinds, and carry trades do not unwind gradually. They unwind violently.

The Carry-Unwind Tail Risk

The single biggest tail risk in USD/JPY is not a gradual reversal but a violent one, and the market has seen it before. The carry trade does not unwind because rates converge slowly — it unwinds when a sudden yen spike triggers margin calls, forcing liquidation that cascades through the leveraged positions. When the yen strengthens sharply, the carry trade flips from profitable to loss-making overnight, and the rush to close positions amplifies the yen's move into a violent spike.

The August 2024 episode is the template that haunts the market. A sudden yen appreciation triggered exactly this kind of cascade, as leveraged carry positions hit margin calls, forced selling of dollar assets to buy back yen, and sent USD/JPY plunging in a matter of sessions while spilling volatility into global equity markets. The unwind was fast, violent, and disruptive far beyond the currency market — a reminder that the carry trade is a source of systemic risk, not just a currency bet.

The conditions for an unwind are building even as the trade stays profitable. The BoJ raising rates and the potential for the Fed to eventually ease both narrow the differential that makes the carry work, and a narrower differential means a smaller cushion against a yen spike. The trade is profitable today, but its margin of safety is shrinking, which raises the probability that a shock — a BoJ surprise hike, a Fed dovish pivot, a risk-off event — triggers the cascade.

The trigger for an unwind is unpredictable by nature. It could be a hawkish BoJ surprise that jolts the yen higher, a Fed dovish turn that compresses the differential, a risk-off event that drives safe-haven flows into the yen, or an intervention by Japan's authorities. Any of these could spark the initial yen move that forces the leveraged positions to liquidate, and once the cascade begins, it feeds on itself as forced selling begets more forced selling.

The unwind risk is the asymmetry that defines USD/JPY at these levels. The pair can grind higher slowly on the carry trade, gaining a fraction of a percent at a time as the yen bleeds lower, but it can fall violently and fast when the trade reverses. That asymmetry — slow grind up, violent drop down — means the risk-reward for chasing USD/JPY higher near a 40-year high is unattractive, because the downside, when it comes, comes all at once.

Intervention Risk Guards the 162 Ceiling

Japan's authorities are the second force capping USD/JPY's upside, and they have a track record of acting. The Ministry of Finance has intervened repeatedly to defend the yen at multi-decade lows, and with the pair near 162 — its highest in around 40 years — the market is on high alert for official action. Intervention concerns provide support for the yen by making money reluctant to push short-yen positions too aggressively near the levels where authorities have struck before.

The mechanics of intervention are powerful in the short term. When the Ministry of Finance intervenes, it sells dollars and buys yen in massive size, forcing USD/JPY sharply lower and inflicting losses on the carry-trade positions caught short the yen. A well-timed intervention can trigger the kind of yen spike that cascades into a broader carry unwind, which is why the mere threat of intervention acts as a soft ceiling on the pair.

The intervention playbook has escalating stages. It typically begins with verbal warnings — officials expressing concern about excessive or disorderly yen moves — before progressing to actual intervention if the warnings are ignored. At 162, the market expects the verbal warnings to intensify, and any acceleration in the yen's decline toward fresh multi-decade lows raises the probability that the authorities move from words to action.

The effectiveness of intervention is debated but real in the near term. Intervention cannot reverse the fundamental rate differential that drives the carry trade, so its effects tend to be temporary unless backed by a shift in the underlying policy divergence. But even temporary intervention can trigger a violent short-term move, force a carry unwind, and reset the pair lower, which is why it functions as a genuine risk that caps the upside near 162-165.

The intervention line makes the upside asymmetric alongside the unwind risk. USD/JPY can push toward 162 and perhaps 165 on the carry trade and the wide differential, but each step higher raises the intervention risk, and the authorities have shown they will act. That ceiling, combined with the carry-unwind tail risk, is why the pair's upside near a 40-year high is capped even as the rate differential argues for further yen weakness.

Japan's Trade Balance and the Oil Shock

A fundamental force working against the yen is Japan's deteriorating trade balance, and the Iran oil shock has made it worse. Japan imports the vast majority of its energy, so the surge in oil prices toward $91 Brent directly worsens the country's trade balance — more yen must be sold to buy the dollars needed to pay for imported energy. That structural import demand is a persistent yen-negative force that the oil spike has amplified.

The trade-balance channel is a direct transmission of the oil shock to the yen. As energy import costs rise, Japanese importers sell yen and buy dollars to pay for the more expensive crude, generating real yen selling that pushes USD/JPY higher. The recovery in imports after the Strait of Hormuz situation, combined with the elevated oil prices, deteriorates Japan's trade position and adds to the downward pressure on the currency.

The energy dependence makes Japan uniquely vulnerable among major economies to the oil shock. Unlike the US, which is a net energy producer and comparatively insulated, Japan must import nearly all its oil and gas, so a Middle East supply shock that lifts prices transfers wealth out of Japan and weakens the yen on both the trade-balance and the growth channels. The same oil spike that supports the dollar through Fed hawkishness weakens the yen through Japan's import bill — a double blow.

The trade-balance deterioration compounds the rate-differential pressure. The wide Fed-BoJ rate gap drives the carry trade, and the worsening trade balance adds structural yen selling on top of the speculative carry flows, reinforcing the yen's weakness. Both forces point the same direction, which is why the yen has struggled to rally even as the BoJ tightens and intervention risk looms.

The oil shock's effect on Japan is a reminder that the yen's weakness is not purely a rate story. Even if the rate differential narrowed, the structural energy-import demand would keep pressure on the yen as long as oil stays elevated. Japan's position as a major energy importer in a world of $91 crude is a fundamental headwind that supports USD/JPY independently of the central-bank divergence, and it will persist as long as the Iran conflict keeps oil prices high.

Fiscal Concerns and Structural Dollar Demand

Beyond the trade balance, Japan's fiscal position adds another layer of yen-negative pressure. Concerns about Japan's fiscal sustainability — the country carries one of the highest public-debt burdens among developed economies — weigh on the yen by raising questions about the long-term health of Japanese government finances. Fiscal worries in a country with enormous debt make the currency vulnerable, particularly if rising rates increase the cost of servicing that debt.

The fiscal dimension interacts uncomfortably with the BoJ's tightening. As the BoJ raises rates, it increases the government's borrowing costs on its massive debt stock, which creates a tension between fighting inflation and managing the fiscal burden. That tension could constrain how far the BoJ can tighten, limiting the yen support from further hikes and keeping the rate differential wider than it would otherwise be. The fiscal constraint is a hidden cap on the BoJ's hawkishness.

Structural dollar demand from Japanese corporates reinforces the yen weakness independently of speculation. Japanese companies with international operations and overseas investments have persistent needs to hold and spend dollars, generating a steady structural demand for the dollar against the yen. That corporate flow is a baseline of yen selling that persists regardless of the carry trade's profitability, providing a floor under USD/JPY.

The combination of fiscal concerns and structural demand is why some forecasts remain bullish on USD/JPY despite the narrowing rate differential. The argument is that structural dollar demand from Japanese corporates and persistent carry flows offset the rate-differential narrowing, keeping the pair elevated even as the BoJ tightens and the Fed's advantage compresses. Those structural forces are the reason the yen cannot simply rally on the BoJ's rate hikes.

The structural yen-negative factors form the deep foundation of the pair's elevation. The rate differential drives the near-term price, but the fiscal concerns, the trade-balance deterioration, and the structural corporate dollar demand provide a persistent undertow that keeps the yen weak across cycles. These forces are why the yen has trended weaker for years and why USD/JPY sits near a 40-year high — the weakness is structural, not merely cyclical.

The Yen as a Safe Haven: The Risk-Off Wildcard

Cutting against all the yen-negative forces is the currency's traditional role as a safe haven, and it is the wildcard that could reverse the pair violently. The yen has historically strengthened during periods of global risk aversion, as money unwinds carry trades and repatriates to Japan during crises. In a genuine risk-off event, the yen's safe-haven appeal can overwhelm the rate differential and drive USD/JPY sharply lower.

The Iran conflict is the obvious potential trigger. A dramatic escalation — a Strait of Hormuz closure, a broader regional war, a major supply shock — could spark the kind of global risk-off event that sends money fleeing into safe havens, including the yen. That safe-haven flow would coincide with a carry-trade unwind, as the risk-off environment forces leveraged positions to liquidate, amplifying the yen's move into a violent spike.

The tension between the yen's safe-haven status and its carry-trade weakness is the pair's central contradiction. In calm markets, the carry trade dominates and the yen weakens toward its lows; in crisis markets, the safe-haven flows dominate and the yen strengthens sharply. USD/JPY near a 40-year high reflects the calm-market carry dynamic, but that same elevation makes the pair vulnerable to a violent reversal if a crisis flips the market into risk-off.

The safe-haven dynamic explains why the yen can spike even against a hawkish Fed. Even with the rate differential favoring the dollar, a sufficiently severe risk-off event would trigger yen repatriation and carry unwinding that overwhelm the rate story, sending USD/JPY plunging regardless of the differential. The August 2024 unwind demonstrated exactly this — the yen spiked violently even though the rate gap still favored the dollar.

The safe-haven wildcard is why the yen bears cannot be complacent near 162. The pair can grind higher on the carry trade in calm markets, but the yen's safe-haven status means any escalation in the Iran conflict, any equity-market shock, or any risk-off event could trigger a violent reversal. The same geopolitical tension that supports the dollar through Fed hawkishness could, if it escalates far enough, flip into a risk-off event that sends the yen soaring. The yen is weak, but it is a coiled spring.

The Technical Map: 162 and the Intervention Zone

The chart frames USD/JPY's predicament around its multi-decade high. The pair trades near 161.50, just below the 162-plus level that marks its highest point in around 40 years and above the 161.62 peak from July 2024. That 40-year-high zone is both the technical resistance and the intervention line, making 162 the critical level that defines the near-term ceiling.

The resistance overhead is layered but capped by intervention. Above the 162 zone, some forecasts target 165, and the most aggressive projections see the pair reaching toward 176-180 if a monthly close above 160 confirms the bullish momentum. But the intervention risk from Japan's authorities makes the path above 162 treacherous — each step higher raises the probability of official action that could trigger a sharp reversal, which caps the realistic upside near 165.

The support structure below defines the downside path. The first support sits near 160, a psychological level the pair has been holding above, followed by 159 and then the mid-150s. A break below those levels — most likely triggered by intervention, a carry unwind, or a Fed dovish pivot — would open a faster descent, given the violent nature of yen reversals when they come.

The momentum indicators reflect a pair grinding higher within an intervention-capped range. USD/JPY has been trending up on the carry trade and the wide differential, but the approach to the 40-year high and the intervention zone has slowed the ascent, producing the tight 160.47-to-161.52 range of recent sessions. The pair is coiled near resistance, waiting for the Fed and BoJ catalysts to determine the next move.

The technical setup captures the asymmetry that defines the pair. The upside is capped near 162-165 by intervention risk, while the downside, when it comes, tends to be violent and fast due to the carry-unwind dynamic. That asymmetry — limited, intervention-capped upside against a potential for a sharp, cascading drop — makes the risk-reward for chasing USD/JPY higher unattractive near its 40-year high, even as the rate differential argues for further yen weakness.

The Forecasts: A Wide and Divided Range

Analyst forecasts for USD/JPY span an enormous range, reflecting the deep disagreement about whether the carry trade or the reversal wins. Bank forecasts range from 150 to 164, with the bulls arguing that structural dollar demand and persistent carry flows keep the pair elevated, and the bears arguing that the BoJ's tightening and an eventual Fed pivot compress the differential and strengthen the yen. The spread captures the genuine uncertainty about the pair's direction.

The bull-case forecasts lean on the carry trade and structural demand. One major forecast maintains an upside target of 165, having pushed back its expected timing for the peak, while another targets 164, arguing that structural dollar demand from Japanese corporates and persistent carry flows offset the rate-differential narrowing. The most aggressive projections see a monthly close above 160 opening the path toward 176-180, though those levels would almost certainly trigger intervention.

The bear-case forecasts see a yen recovery. A contrarian forecast projects USD/JPY declining toward 140, driven by the BoJ's continued tightening, an eventual Fed pivot, and the yen's safe-haven appeal in a risk-off environment. The bears argue that the rate differential will compress faster than the market expects and that a carry unwind could accelerate the yen's recovery violently. The 140 target represents a substantial yen appreciation from the current 161.50.

The assumptions behind the forecasts reveal the key variables. The bullish projections assume the differential stays wide — the Fed holding or hiking while the BoJ tightens only gradually — and that structural dollar demand persists. The bearish projections assume the differential compresses faster, whether through more aggressive BoJ tightening, a Fed dovish pivot, or a carry unwind that forces a yen repricing. The forecasts diverge on the pace and direction of the rate-gap compression.

The wide forecast range underscores that USD/JPY is at an inflection point. A pair trading near 161.50 with credible forecasts ranging from 140 to 180 is a pair where the market genuinely cannot decide whether the carry trade extends the yen's weakness or a reversal drives its recovery. That uncertainty reflects the tension between the rate differential pushing the pair higher and the intervention-and-unwind risks that could send it violently lower.

Bull Versus Bear and the Verdict

The bull case for USD/JPY is the carry trade extended. The Fed holds a 250-275 basis point advantage over the BoJ, the Iran oil shock keeps the Fed hawkish and Japan's trade balance deteriorating, structural dollar demand from Japanese corporates provides a floor, and the carry trade pays every day the yen stays weak. As long as the differential holds and markets stay calm, USD/JPY grinds toward 162 and potentially 165, with the bulls targeting 164-165 on the strength of the rate gap and the carry flows.

The bull's strongest point is the persistence of the differential. Even with the BoJ tightening to 1.00%, the 250-275 basis point gap still pays in a leveraged carry position, and the oil-driven Fed hawkishness keeps the dollar side firm. The yen cannot rally on the BoJ's hikes alone while the differential remains this wide, which is why the pair has held near its 40-year high despite the historic normalization.

The bear case is the reversal, and it is potentially violent. The BoJ's tightening is narrowing the differential, a September hike could accelerate it, intervention risk caps the upside near 162, and the carry trade is vulnerable to a violent unwind that a risk-off event or a BoJ surprise could trigger. The yen's safe-haven status means any Iran escalation or equity shock could spark a cascade that sends USD/JPY plunging toward 150 or 140, as the August 2024 unwind demonstrated.

The bear's decisive argument is the asymmetry. The upside is capped near 162-165 by intervention, while the downside is open and violent due to the carry-unwind risk. That asymmetry means the risk-reward favors the bears even though the rate differential favors the dollar — the pair can grind up slowly but fall fast, and near a 40-year high, the potential for a sharp reversal outweighs the limited remaining upside.

The verdict: USD/JPY at 161.50 is a pair pinned near a 40-year high by a wide rate differential and the carry trade, but capped by intervention risk and threatened by a violent unwind. The near-term path favors continued yen weakness as long as the Fed stays hawkish on the oil shock and the differential holds — the bulls can push toward 162 and perhaps 165. But the asymmetry is stark: the upside is intervention-capped while the downside is a cascading carry unwind that a Fed pivot, a BoJ surprise, or an Iran escalation could trigger. The BoJ's historic tightening to 1.00% is being overwhelmed by the Fed's oil-driven hawkishness, but that overwhelming is temporary and fragile. The July 29 Fed decision and the BoJ's September path are the catalysts. Trade the carry while it pays, but respect the 162 intervention line and the unwind risk — this is a pair that grinds up on borrowed time and falls hard when the time runs out. The differential favors the dollar today; the intervention and the unwind favor the yen tomorrow. The yen is weak, but it is a coiled spring, and the higher USD/JPY climbs toward 162, the more violent the eventual snap-back.

That's TradingNEWS