Sterling Rebounds To 1.3535 As Waller Guts The Dollar

Sterling trades at 1.3535 against the dollar, up 0.37% on the session, after attempting a rebound from a two-week low near 1.3485 earlier Thursday. The pair is recovering from a multi-day losing streak that took it to four-week lows around 1.3470 on Wednesday, its weakest stretch since mid-August.

The catalyst is entirely American. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that if upcoming inflation data shows cooling, he would be inclined to allow a resumption of the disinflation process, adding that he views the current federal funds rate as appropriate. That shifted him to a neutral stance and collapsed September hike pricing. CME FedWatch odds for the September 15-16 meeting fell to roughly 48% from 63% a day earlier. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped for a second consecutive session to around 4.74% from 4.81%, its highest since October 2023. The dollar index slid to near 99.00, a one-week low, after printing 99.86 on Wednesday.

Cable followed mechanically. Nothing in the United Kingdom changed on Thursday.

That dependence is the defining feature of this pair right now, and it comes from an unusual place: the interest rate differential has essentially vanished. The Bank of England holds its base rate at 3.75%. The Federal Reserve's target range runs 3.50% to 3.75%. The significant rate advantage the dollar enjoyed for three years has been closed entirely, and with it the fundamental anchor that used to drive cable.

Both central banks are also now priced to tighten into the same energy shock. Markets carry approximately 32 basis points of Bank of England tightening by year-end, with a November hike seen at almost 70% probability and a second by February around 80%. The Fed sits at 48% for September.

The result is a currency pair with no differential story, sitting on top of its 8-day, 21-day, 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages simultaneously — the tightest compression cable has seen this year.

The thesis running through this forecast is that GBP/USD has become a pure dollar proxy with a UK fiscal tail attached, and the break out of a 1.3470 to 1.3675 range comes from Friday's American payrolls report rather than from anything sterling-specific. Above 1.3567 the range top reopens. Below 1.3470 the consensus targets near 1.3327 come into play.

The Differential Is Gone: 3.75% Against A Fed Upper Bound Of 3.75%

Strip cable to its fundamental driver and there is almost nothing left to trade.

The Bank of England base rate stands at 3.75%. The Federal Reserve's target range is 3.50% to 3.75%. Measured against the Fed's upper bound the spread is zero. Against the midpoint of 3.625%, sterling carries a 12.5 basis point advantage. For a pair that spent 2022 through 2024 trading a differential that ran hundreds of basis points in the dollar's favour, this is a structural change.

The path here matters. The Fed cut three times in 2025 for a total of 75 basis points, taking the range to its current level. The Bank of England ran its own easing cycle in parallel, delivering a widely expected cut to 3.75% in December 2025 while signalling that the bar for further reduction was high given persistent inflation. Money markets at that point believed the Bank would deliver at least one more cut in the first half of 2026 and priced nearly a 50% probability of a second before year-end.

None of that happened. Both central banks stopped, and both have since turned toward tightening as the energy shock from the Iran conflict pushed headline inflation higher on both sides of the Atlantic.

With the carry gone, cable's price is set by whichever central bank's expectations move faster, and lately that has been the Fed's. September hike pricing has travelled from approximately 36% before Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address, to 65% to 68% by September 1, to 63% after Wednesday's weak ADP report, to 48% today. Sterling fell from around 1.3675 to 1.3470 as the dollar side repriced hawkish, and it has recovered 0.37% as the same pricing unwound.

The five-year context frames how stretched sterling already is on an absolute basis. Over the past five years GBP/USD has averaged approximately $1.29, with a high of $1.40 and a low of $1.07. At 1.3535 the pound trades roughly 5% above its five-year average.

That is the tension in every bullish cable call. Sterling is historically expensive against the dollar at a point where its rate advantage over the dollar is 12.5 basis points at most.

Markets Price 32 Basis Points Of BoE Tightening And A 70% November Hike

The sterling-positive half of the equation is real, and it has been building for months.

Money markets carry approximately 32 basis points of Bank of England tightening by year-end. A November hike is priced at almost 70% probability, and a second increase by February sits around 80%. That would take the base rate from 3.75% toward 4.25% by early next year while the Fed's own path remains a coin flip.

The reason is inflation that stopped cooperating. The latest UK inflation print came in at 3.3%, up from 3.0% the month before. Services inflation — the metric the Monetary Policy Committee watches more closely than any other — climbed from 4.3% to 4.5%. That is not disinflation stalling. That is inflation re-accelerating in the component the Bank has repeatedly said determines policy.

The committee's chief economist has been voting to hike, backing higher rates and providing the intellectual foundation for the tightening case. Governor Andrew Bailey has taken the more cautious line, stating that inflation is expected to decline next year while confirming policy will remain restrictive, and pointing to a weakening labour market and cautious consumers whose savings run at twice pre-pandemic levels.

That split — a chief economist voting to hike against a governor emphasising labour market softness — is why the pricing sits at 70% rather than 95%.

The oil linkage makes the timing unstable. When Brent fell earlier in the summer, expectations for the next Bank of England hike were pushed into 2027 from late 2026 as lower crude eased UK inflation concerns. Brent is now above $95 and has gained more than 7% this week, which has dragged the hike back into the November window.

The next scheduled sterling-specific catalyst is the Bank of England's vote on balance sheet reduction on September 17 — one day after the FOMC decision. That sequencing means the dollar leg resolves first, and cable will have already moved before the Bank speaks.

For the pair, the mechanism is straightforward: 32 basis points of BoE tightening against a Fed that holds widens the differential in sterling's favour for the first time since 2021.

UK Inflation At 3.3% With Services At 4.5% Is Re-Heating

The composition of British inflation is worse than the headline suggests, and it is the reason the tightening case has teeth.

Headline UK inflation at 3.3% against a 2% target is uncomfortable. Services inflation at 4.5%, up from 4.3%, is the number that forces action. Services prices are dominated by domestic wages and are the cleanest read on whether inflation has become embedded in the economy rather than imported through commodities. Goods inflation driven by $95 Brent will wash out. Services inflation at 4.5% will not.

That distinction separates the UK from the eurozone case. Euro area flash inflation hit 3.3% in August, the highest since September 2023, but with services and core both easing and the headline driven overwhelmingly by an energy surge. The European Central Bank is hiking against an imported shock it cannot influence. The Bank of England faces a domestic price problem on top of the same energy shock.

For sterling this is fundamentally supportive against the euro and ambiguous against the dollar. A central bank forced to tighten by domestic wage-driven inflation delivers a real rate advantage that persists. A central bank tightening against imported energy delivers a temporary one.

The offset sits in growth. One institutional forecast lowered its 2027 UK growth projection to 1.2%, a 10 basis point cut. A 3.75% base rate heading toward 4.25% against 1.2% growth is a restrictive stance in a stagnant economy, and that combination historically weighs on a currency once the market shifts from pricing rate levels to pricing growth damage.

The labour market data supports the caution. The governor's framing of a weakening labour market and consumers sitting on savings twice pre-pandemic levels describes an economy where demand is being held back voluntarily rather than by policy — which means further tightening does more harm than good on the activity side.

Watch two releases. UK services PMI has surprised to the upside before, and sterling jumped to $1.3675 when services activity unexpectedly accelerated. Any repeat would push the November hike probability toward 90% and break cable out of its range without needing the dollar to cooperate.

The Fed Side: 48% From 63% On One Governor's Speech

Every meaningful cable move over the past nine sessions traces to American rate pricing rather than to anything British, and the swings have been violent.

Before Jackson Hole, September hike odds sat near 36%. Warsh recommitted the committee to bringing inflation down to 2%, and by September 1 futures priced 65% to 68%. Sterling fell from 1.3675 through 1.3549, 1.3535, 1.3514 and eventually to 1.3470 across that stretch, its weakest since August 19.

Wednesday's ADP report started the reversal. Private employers added 38,000 jobs in August after an upwardly revised 46,000 in July, the weakest reading since January and below the 47,000 to 48,000 consensus. Hike odds slipped to 62% from 66% pre-release. New York Fed President John Williams then argued rising bond yields reflect a solid economy rather than inflation fears and counselled waiting. Waller finished the job Thursday.

The current 48% represents a 20-point move in two sessions and a 32-point round trip in nine.

The July FOMC held with a 9-3 vote, three members dissenting in favour of a quarter-point increase. That split is what makes each speech tradeable — the committee is genuinely divided, and a single governor stating a position shifts the expected outcome.

Thursday's American data offered no clean signal. Initial jobless claims rose to 206,000 in the week ending August 29 against a 205,000 forecast and a 204,000 prior, a labour market with no visible stress.

The calendar compresses everything into the next two weeks. August nonfarm payrolls land Friday, with the headline expected to rebound by 58,000 after an unexpected 23,000 decline in July. August CPI arrives around September 10. The FOMC decides September 16, and the Bank of England votes on balance sheet reduction September 17.

Waller made clear the inflation print, not the jobs number, determines his vote. That structure means Friday's payrolls move cable on positioning while the September 10 CPI moves it on substance.

For a pair with no carry differential, that dependency is complete. Cable is a dollar chart wearing a sterling label.

ISM Services At 55.4 With Prices Paid At 72.6 Caps The Sterling Bounce

The data released alongside Waller's remarks argued firmly for the dollar, and it is the reason cable is up 0.37% rather than 1%.

The August ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4 from 54.1 in July, beating the 54.3 consensus. Inside the report, the Prices Paid index climbed to 72.6 and the Employment index came in at 47.8, in contraction.

Read together: activity accelerating in the sector that generates most American output, price pressures accelerating faster, and hiring shrinking. That is a stagflationary print at the margin, and the 72.6 prices component is precisely the number a committee worried about a $95 oil pass-through will focus on when it meets in twelve days.

Business activity improving and the labour market holding at 206,000 claims limits how far sterling can run on a dovish speech. The market took Waller's vote over the survey's signal, because a governor's stated position carries more weight into a close decision than a diffusion index. But that is a positioning judgment, and positioning judgments reverse when hard data lands.

The equivalent British data cuts the other way. UK services activity has previously surprised to the upside strongly enough to send sterling to $1.3675, and final services PMIs for the UK have been the pound's most reliable positive catalyst this year.

The asymmetry in the current setup: American services are accelerating with prices at 72.6, and the Fed is being talked out of hiking. British services inflation is at 4.5%, and the Bank of England is being talked into hiking. If both data sets keep printing in those directions, the differential moves toward sterling by 30 to 50 basis points over two quarters.

The risk to that convergence trade is that a hot August CPI on September 10 forces the Fed's hand and takes hike odds from 48% straight back through 68%. In that scenario cable does not stop at 1.3470 — the four-week low becomes support that fails, and the consensus targets near 1.3327 arrive within days rather than months.

Cable Is Sitting On Four Moving Averages At Once

The technical setup is genuinely unusual and it is the strongest argument that a large move is coming.

As of September 2, GBP/USD was trading near its 8-day exponential moving average, near its 21-day, near its 50-day and near its 100-day — all four simultaneously. Moving average convergence at that degree means the trend has flattened across every relevant timeframe, and it typically resolves with an expansion move rather than continued drift.

The four-week price structure confirms the compression. Cable has traded from 1.3470 at the low to roughly 1.3675 at the high — a 1.5% range across a month for the fourth-most-traded currency in the world. Within it, the pair has printed 1.3675, 1.3650, 1.3605, 1.3549, 1.3545, 1.3535, 1.3514, 1.3485 and 1.3470, which reads as a slow grind lower with a bounce at the bottom rather than a trend.

Near-term structure sets clear reference points. A resistance lid sits at 1.35549 to 1.35669, described as a strong retest zone with only moderate supply overhead but substantial demand stacked beneath — a configuration that supports a grab-and-reverse pattern where a push into the mid-1.35s runs buy-side stops before reversing. The 1.3600 handle above it carries weaker resistance liquidity.

On the hourly chart, a head-and-shoulders reversal formation was identified on September 1 with volume and momentum supporting a bearish resolution, and the subsequent slide to 1.3470 validated it.

The broader assessment holds that cable remains bearish after failing above 1.3650, with 1.3520 flagged as the resistance to watch ahead of the payrolls report. Sterling has stopped being one of the stronger major currencies, and that shift in perception combined with the technical damage is what makes this pair worth watching over the coming sessions.

Cable at 1.3535 has already cleared 1.3520. The next test is 1.3567. Above that, the dollar index needs to break below 99 decisively, and one framework holds the dollar's own trend will not be decisive until DXY establishes above 100 — which cuts the other way.

The £252 Billion Gilt Problem Nobody Is Currently Pricing

There is a tail risk in sterling that has nothing to do with rates and everything to do with supply.

The UK Debt Management Office plans to issue approximately £252 billion of gilts in the 2026-27 fiscal year. That is an enormous volume to place, and it lands in a global bond market already struggling to absorb supply. Gilt yields rose alongside German and French yields on Wednesday as the 10-year Treasury reached 4.818%, and estimates that AI companies have raised $1.5 trillion in debt this year have squeezed primary dealer capacity for government paper generally.

The mechanism that matters for cable is auction failure. If demand falters at a major gilt sale, yields spike for the wrong reasons — a supply problem rather than a growth or inflation story — and sterling sells off in hours rather than sessions. The September 2022 mini-budget episode is the case study, and the market has not forgotten it.

The Bank of England's balance sheet reduction vote on September 17 sits directly on top of this. Quantitative tightening removes the central bank as a buyer of gilts at exactly the moment the DMO needs to place record volumes. A decision to accelerate the runoff would compound the supply problem. A decision to slow it would be read as fiscal accommodation and could weigh on sterling for a different reason.

That is the genuinely two-sided risk in this pair over the next fortnight, and it is not visible in the rate differential or in any technical level.

The broader vulnerability is well documented. Sterling correlates positively with risk sentiment — when traders exit risk assets, they sell the pound and buy dollars. During acute stress the pair moves fast: GBP/USD dropped 13% in March 2020 during the initial pandemic shock. There is no tactical defence against a move of that speed beyond position sizing and stops.

With Brent above $95, U.S. strikes on Iran ongoing, Kuwait engaging incoming missiles and drones, and a global bond market absorbing record issuance, the conditions for a risk-off episode are present. Sterling is the major currency with the least protection against one.

Brent Above $95 Cuts Both Ways For Sterling

The energy shock is the variable that connects everything in this pair, and it works in opposite directions depending on the timeframe.

Brent trades at $96.20, up 57 cents after breaking $97 intraday, with West Texas Intermediate at $91.98 and crude up more than 7% this week. Renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets, Iranian retaliation against American bases, and Kuwaiti air defences engaging missiles and drones have kept a substantial risk premium in the price.

Sterling fell toward $1.35, its weakest since August 19, specifically as renewed risk aversion driven by higher oil prices weighed on the currency while hawkish Fed signals supported the dollar. That is the short-term channel: higher crude equals risk-off equals dollar bid equals cable lower. The United Kingdom is a net energy importer, so the terms-of-trade hit is real.

The medium-term channel runs the other way. Higher crude pushes UK headline inflation higher, which forces the Bank of England toward the November hike currently priced at 70%, which widens the differential in sterling's favour. When Brent fell earlier this summer, the market pushed the next BoE hike into 2027 from late 2026. The relationship is direct and documented.

That gives cable an unusual property: it sells off on the oil headline and then recovers on the rate implication, which is exactly the pattern of the past week. Sterling hit 1.3470 on the risk-off move and has recovered to 1.3535 as rate pricing absorbed it.

The scenario that breaks the pattern is oil high enough to cause genuine demand destruction. One institutional framework holds that if Gulf blockades persist and reserves cannot cushion supply, crude could climb toward $120 — a level Brent already touched at $120.88 on April 30 — with a genuinely recessionary shock requiring above $140 alongside a sharp equity selloff. At those levels the growth damage overwhelms the rate support, and a UK economy already marked down to 1.2% growth for 2027 cannot absorb it.

Below $120 the two channels roughly offset. Above it, sterling is the wrong side of the trade.

The Yen Is Doing The Dollar Damage, Not The Pound

A meaningful portion of today's cable gain is not sterling strength — it is arithmetic from elsewhere in the dollar index.

USD/JPY has accelerated a severe pullback and hovers around 155.50 as investors assess a potential Bank of Japan rate hike as soon as the September 18 meeting, alongside speculation that Japanese authorities will intervene to support the currency. That yen rally triggered broad-based dollar selling and is the single largest contributor to the greenback's softness this week.

The pound carries substantial weight in the dollar index, but a violent move in USD/JPY drags the entire basket, and cable picks up the residual mechanically. That is why sterling can gain 0.37% on a day when no British data was released and no Bank of England official spoke.

The distinction matters for how much confidence to place in 1.3535. Gains borrowed from a yen squeeze reverse when the squeeze ends, and yen-driven dollar weakness has a short half-life unless the Bank of Japan actually delivers on September 18. That decision lands two days after the FOMC and one day after the Bank of England's balance sheet vote — three central bank events inside 72 hours.

The rest of the majors tell the same story. The euro trades at 1.1622 against the dollar, up roughly 0.30% and testing its 200-day simple moving average at 1.1633 from beneath. The Australian dollar has struggled to build on the previous session's bounce from a near two-week low and ranges above 0.7150 after weak trade data. Gold has extended its rebound after slipping below $4,300 to a near four-week low, with the sharp yen rally weighing on the dollar and falling Treasury yields adding support.

Every one of those moves has the same driver and none of them originate in the currency being quoted. This is a dollar session, and cable is a passenger.

For sterling specifically the read-through is that a genuine breakout above 1.3650 requires either UK data strong enough to lock in the November hike, or an American CPI print soft enough to take the September hike off the table entirely. Yen mechanics alone will not get it there.

Upside Map: 1.3567, 1.3600 And The 1.3650/60 Ceiling

The resistance structure above is dense and well defined, which is what a month-long range produces.

The immediate lid sits at 1.35549 to 1.35669, a strong retest zone with moderate supply overhead. Clearing it requires 0.24% from current levels and would take cable to the highest print since Wednesday's decline began. Above that, 1.3600 carries weaker resistance and represents both a round number and the level cable held before the Jackson Hole selloff.

The genuine ceiling is 1.3650 to 1.3660. Sterling tested that area and failed, and the failure is what turned the near-term structure bearish. The pair held close to six-month highs around 1.3650 in mid-August before the reversal. Above it, 1.3675 marks the high printed when UK services activity unexpectedly accelerated — the last time a British datapoint, rather than an American one, set the price.

Measured from 1.3535: 1.3567 is 0.24% higher, 1.3600 is 0.48%, 1.3650 is 0.85% and 1.3675 is 1.03%. Those are small distances, which is the point — a month of compression means the levels are stacked close together and a genuine break travels through several of them quickly.

Beyond the range, the bullish outlier target sits at 1.40, worth 3.44% from here, based on a view that sterling reaches that level by December and holds 1.41 through much of 2027. That call requires the Fed to abandon tightening entirely while the Bank of England delivers both priced hikes.

One conditional objective sits above the aggregated consensus, contingent on cable clearing the 1.3650/60 resistance area first. That framing is the right one: nothing above the range matters until the range breaks.

The path to a break is specific. Friday's payrolls need to disappoint, taking September hike odds from 48% toward 30%, and August CPI on September 10 needs to confirm the disinflation Waller says he is finally seeing. Two soft prints in seven sessions would push the dollar index through 99 decisively and take cable to 1.3675 without requiring anything from the UK.

Absent that, every push into the mid-1.35s is a stop run before a reversal.

Downside Map: 1.3485, 1.3470 And The 1.3327 Consensus

The support structure is thinner than the resistance, which makes the downside faster once the first level goes.

Immediate support is Thursday's two-week low at approximately 1.3485, 0.37% below the current print. Beneath it, Wednesday's four-week low near 1.3470 is the level that has defined this decline, 0.48% lower. Those two sit within 15 pips of each other, which means they function as a single shelf — and a shelf that thin does not absorb a determined move.

Below 1.3470 the chart opens. There is no meaningful structure until the aggregated consensus target zone, and that zone sits well beneath current prices: a survey of 25 providers with a bearish bias projects 1.3327 by late 2026 and 1.3385 by December, with a one-month path at 1.3347 and a three-month estimate at 1.3386.

Measured from 1.3535: 1.3385 is 1.11% lower, 1.3347 is 1.39% lower and 1.3327 is 1.54% lower. One independent forecast puts the September average at 1.327 with a monthly low of 1.303, and a separate framework expects the pair to hold between $1.32 and $1.36 for the remainder of 2026, ending the year around $1.34.

The scenarios producing those outcomes are straightforward. A hot August CPI on September 10 takes Fed hike odds from 48% back through 68%, the dollar index retests 99.86 and then 100, and cable breaks 1.3470 on the same session. One technical framework holds that the dollar's move is not decisive until DXY establishes above 100, which identifies exactly the trigger.

The second path is fiscal rather than monetary: a weak gilt auction into £252 billion of annual issuance sends UK yields higher for supply reasons, and sterling sells off in hours. That risk peaks around the September 17 balance sheet vote.

The third is a broad risk-off event driven by the Middle East. Sterling correlates positively with risk sentiment and has no defence against a fast move — the March 2020 precedent produced a 13% decline.

Position sizing matters more than level selection on the downside here.

Forecast Distribution: A 1.3327 Consensus Against A 1.40 Outlier

Published sterling forecasts are unusually clustered on the bearish side, and the one bullish outlier is worth understanding.

The aggregated consensus across 25 providers carries a bearish bias and projects 1.3327 by late 2026, 1.3479 by March 2027 and 1.3695 by late 2027 — a path that has cable falling 1.5% over the remainder of this year before recovering through next. A separate house expects the range to hold $1.32 to $1.36 with a year-end print around $1.34, explicitly ruling out a sustained move significantly above $1.36. Bank consensus more broadly looks for modest sterling strength toward 1.33 to 1.37 by year-end.

The outlier sees sterling at 1.40 by December and 1.41 through much of 2027, a call that survived the post-Jackson Hole retreat to 1.3534. That is 3.44% above the current price and roughly 5% above the aggregated consensus, and it requires the Fed to move from hiking to cutting while the Bank of England delivers the priced tightening.

The spread between 1.3327 and 1.40 is 5%. For a major currency pair over four months, that is wide dispersion, and it reflects genuine uncertainty about which central bank blinks rather than analyst noise.

Two things stand out in the distribution. First, almost nobody forecasts a sustained break above 1.3675 — the level cable reached on strong UK services data — which means the market treats the August high as a ceiling rather than a launching point. Second, almost nobody forecasts a break below 1.30, which means the fiscal tail risk is not in the central estimates at all.

That combination describes a range trade with an unpriced left tail. The central forecasts are all inside 1.32 to 1.40, and the scenario that breaks the range — a gilt auction failure — sits outside every published path.

The honest synthesis: at 1.3535 sterling trades roughly 5% above its five-year average of $1.29 with a rate advantage of at most 12.5 basis points over the dollar. That is not a cheap currency, and the burden of proof sits with the bulls.

Verdict: Range-Bound Between 1.3470 And 1.3675, With Friday's Payrolls The Trigger

GBP/USD at 1.3535, up 0.37% and recovering from a two-week low at 1.3485, deserves a neutral stance with a bearish tilt and tight levels on both sides.

The sterling-positive case has substance. The rate differential has closed entirely — 3.75% at the Bank of England against a 3.50% to 3.75% Fed range — erasing the dollar advantage that defined this pair for three years. Markets price approximately 32 basis points of Bank of England tightening by year-end with a November hike at almost 70% and a second by February at 80%, against a Fed sitting at 48% for September. UK inflation at 3.3% with services at 4.5% and rising is a domestic wage problem rather than an imported energy one, which forces the Bank's hand more durably than the ECB's. The dollar index at 99.00 has given back its entire move from Wednesday's 99.86, the 10-year has retreated to 4.74% from 4.81%, and Waller — a sitting governor — described the current funds rate as appropriate.

The sterling-negative case is equally concrete. Cable trades roughly 5% above its five-year average of $1.29 with at most a 12.5 basis point rate advantage. The August ISM Services PMI at 55.4 with Prices Paid at 72.6 argues the Fed's inflation problem is unresolved. UK 2027 growth was just marked down to 1.2%, which is a restrictive stance in a stagnant economy. The Debt Management Office needs to place £252 billion of gilts this fiscal year with the Bank voting on balance sheet reduction September 17, and sterling has no defence against a supply-driven yield spike. Much of today's gain was borrowed from a yen squeeze on Bank of Japan speculation ahead of its September 18 meeting.

The forecast: range-bound between 1.3470 and 1.3675 until the data breaks it. A daily close above 1.3567 opens 1.3600 and then the 1.3650/60 ceiling, worth 0.85%, and requires a soft payrolls print Friday followed by a cooperative CPI on September 10. A close below 1.3470 removes the only support shelf on the chart and targets the 1.3327 to 1.3385 consensus zone, 1.1% to 1.5% lower. Three central banks decide inside 72 hours — the Fed on September 16, the Bank of England on September 17, the Bank of Japan on September 18. Verdict: trade the range, respect 1.3470, and hold no position through Friday's payrolls without a stop.

That's TradingNEWS