Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Holds $89K After 143K BTC Selloff, Eyes $95K–$98K

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) stalls near $89,000 as hard assets and Fed risk collide

Spot price, crypto board and underperformance vs traditional markets

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades around $89,000–$89,600, up roughly 2%–2.2% on the day, but still capped well below the $95,500 swing high and the psychological $100,000 line that bulls expected to clear in Q4 2025. That quarter actually closed in the red for the first time in years, despite the spot ETF launch and a massive recovery from the $15,800 bear-market low in 2022. Short-term, BTC-USD is green; structurally, it is stuck in a sideways “coma” between the low $80,000s and mid $90,000s.

The broader crypto board shows that risk appetite has not disappeared. ETH-USD trades near $3,012, up about 3.3%. XRP-USD is around $1.92 (+~2%), SOL-USD trades near $126.5 (+~2.5%), BNB-USD sits just over $900 (+~2.3%), and meme and L1 names like DOGE-USD ($0.1251, +~2.8%), ADA-USD ($0.3584, +~2.7%) and TRX-USD ($0.2911, slightly negative) show a still-active risk curve. Total crypto market cap is about $3.18 trillion, up less than 1%. Compared with gold above $5,200 and silver near $117–$118, both at or near record highs, BTC-USD is no longer the strongest hard asset on the board, and that shift in relative performance is exactly what the smart money is reacting to now.

Long-term holders sell 143,000 BTC: structural profit-taking at the top of the range

On-chain data shows long-term holders have unloaded roughly 143,000 BTC over the last 30 days, the fastest pace of distribution since August. At spot levels around $89,600, that block is worth over $12.7 billion. This selling wave has completely reversed the brief accumulation phase seen from late December into early January. Long-horizon wallets that typically sit through full cycles are now selling into strength, not buying the dip.

That behavior matters more than intraday candles. When long-term holders dump 143k BTC in a month while price fails to reclaim $95,500, the message is simple: the current range is viewed as a rich zone, not a bargain. It doesn’t mean the cycle is over, but it means that the most patient capital is reducing exposure rather than leveraging up.

ETF flows as Bitcoin’s “insider tape”: from $1.3B outflows to tentative stabilization

Because BTC-USD has no boardroom and no classic insider trading tape, the closest proxy to insider behavior is the flow into and out of spot Bitcoin ETFs and large institutional vehicles. Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $1.3 billion in net redemptions, with Ethereum ETFs losing another $611 million. That wave of selling came on top of the 143,000 BTC long-term holder distribution and helped push BTC down toward $87,000 after Trump’s Greenland comments.

This week, the tone has shifted from panic to hesitation. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed roughly $140 million so far—still negative, but almost an order of magnitude smaller than last week. That is exactly how insider-style distribution usually evolves: aggressive selling at the first break, followed by smaller, more selective outflows as institutions reassess. At the same time, specific institutional players are still adding. Strive, for example, bought 333.89 BTC, lifting its total to 13,131.82 BTC in custody. Those adds are small compared with the aggregate outflows, but they show that not all large holders are walking away.

Taken together, ETF flows plus long-term holder moves look like late-stage distribution at elevated prices, not a panic exit. The “insider tape” is cautious but not capitulating.

BTC-USD vs silver and gold: ratio breakdown and loss of hard-asset leadership

The BTC/silver relationship has flipped against Bitcoin. Silver has surged roughly 60% year-to-date, spiking to almost $118 per ounce, while BTC-USD is stuck under $95,500 and currently trades just below $90,000. The BTC–silver ratio has broken down sharply, signaling that capital is rotating from digital to physical hedges. Historically, Bitcoin often moved in tandem with precious metals when inflation or geopolitical risk dominated the narrative. This time, that link has broken: silver and gold are making new highs while BTC is range-bound.

Gold is even more aggressive. The metal rallied through $5,100 and on toward $5,200–$5,300 before a minor pullback, and it continues to attract safe-haven flows on top of speculation. In contrast, Bitcoin has not re-tested its prior peaks near six figures, despite a weaker dollar and a global liquidity backdrop that should, in theory, favor a high-beta inflation hedge. The market message is blunt: in 2026, the primary hard-asset havens are metals, with BTC-USD temporarily downgraded from “must-own hedge” to second-tier risk asset in relative terms.

Three-year scoreboard: BTC-USD still crushes QQQ and metals despite the current plateau

Short-term relative weakness hides a much more powerful three-year scoreboard. From the $15,800 lows of the 2022 crypto winter to recent levels near $89,000, BTC-USD has gained roughly +430%. Over the same period since spot ETF approval in early 2024, gold is up about +177%, silver roughly +350%, and the tech-heavy QQQ has climbed around +140%.

That context matters. The current sideways range near $89,000 is not a failure of the asset; it is a high-altitude consolidation after a fourfold move, where prior outperformer status has earned Bitcoin a pause. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas is correct on the structural logic: what looks like a “coma” on the daily chart is actually a plateau after multi-asset outperformance. The scoreboard still favors BTC over almost every major asset class when measured from the last cycle low.

Weekly EMA crossover: historical warning from the 21-week and 50-week trend lines

On the weekly chart, technician Rekt Capital has flagged a rare crossover between the 21-week EMA and 50-week EMA on BTC-USD. The last time this specific pair crossed the way it just did was in April 2022, just before Bitcoin rolled into the deepest part of its last bear market. EMAs do not deliver timing, but they define trend health. This crossover signals that medium-term upside momentum is fading, even if the longer-term uptrend from $15,800 is intact.

At current prices near $89,000, that EMA event argues against assuming a straight-line run to new highs. It supports a scenario where Bitcoin spends months, not weeks, digesting gains, especially while metals, AI equities and the dollar narrative all compete for capital.

Four-hour descending wedge: $86,000 support, $91,200 breakout, $98,000 ceiling

On the 4-hour chart, BTC-USD is showing a classic compression structure. Price is holding above $86,000, printing higher lows, but it is pinned beneath a falling trendline that starts at the $95,500 high. That creates a descending wedge, historically a tired-downtrend pattern rather than a fresh breakdown pattern.

Price action between $88,500 and $89,000 shows repeated long lower wicks, confirming that buyers defend dips aggressively in that zone. Candle bodies are shrinking, indicating that directional conviction—especially from sellers—is fading. Short-term exponential moving averages are curling up, and both the 50-EMA and 100-EMA on this timeframe are clustering around $91,000–$91,200. That band is now the immediate trigger level.

If BTC-USD can break and hold above $91,200, the next upside checkpoints sit near $93,300, then the prior ceiling at $95,500, and beyond that a possible extension toward $98,000. Momentum indicators support that possibility: the RSI is climbing toward the mid-50s, signaling recovery without yet flashing overbought conditions.

On the downside, if price loses $88,500 and closes decisively below $86,000, the wedge pattern shifts from bullish exhaustion to extended consolidation, and traders would refocus on a broader range anchored by the ETF cost basis and weekly moving averages.

Critical supports: 100-week moving average at $87,145 and ETF cost basis at $84,099

Two deeper levels anchor this range from a structural perspective. The 100-week moving average currently sits near $87,145, just below recent lows around $87,000 after the Greenland-related selloff. That line has been a major medium-term trend gauge in previous cycles. A sustained break below it would signal more than just noise.

Below that, ETF buyers’ estimated aggregate cost basis clusters around $84,099. That level has held during prior consolidation phases. If BTC-USD were to close and stay under $84,000, a significant share of ETF holders would be underwater, increasing the risk of a feedback loop of redemptions and further price pressure. As long as price respects $87,145 and especially $84,099, the structural bull case remains intact: this is a high-range pause, not a full trend reversal.

Fed meeting impact: 7 of last 8 FOMCs saw average 9% drops in BTC-USD

The Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark rate in the 3.5%–3.75% range, with CME FedWatch showing less than 3% odds of a cut at today’s meeting. The decision itself is a nonevent; the risk sits in Powell’s 2:30 PM press conference and the path for 2026 cuts. Historically, Bitcoin has traded badly around these events. In seven of the last eight FOMC meetings, BTC-USD sold off after the announcement, with an average decline of around 9%.

This time, the setup is layered. Fed projections show a split committee: 7 of 19 officials favor no cuts for at least a year, 4 support just one quarter-point cut, and 8 want at least 50 bps of easing in 2026. That divergence makes Powell’s guidance and his eventual successor’s stance critical for risk assets. For Bitcoin, which is trading just above key supports with a fragile sentiment profile, any hint of slower easing or renewed hawkish tone can easily trigger another swift $7,000–$8,000 downdraft, pushing price back toward the low $80,000s.

Trump, the dollar, shutdown odds and political volatility around BTC-USD

Politics is amplifying macro noise. President Trump has openly dismissed concerns about the dollar’s weakness, saying the currency is “doing great” even after the Dollar Index dropped 10% over the past year and suffered a 1.3% one-day slump—its worst since last April. That move briefly pushed BTC-USD above $89,000 before gains faded, and it sent gold and silver to fresh highs.

At the same time, prediction markets put odds of a U.S. government shutdown by month-end at around 76%, adding another potential volatility catalyst. Trump has also promised that interest rates will “plummet” once he replaces Powell, saying he will announce a new Fed chair soon. These statements inject direct political risk into the Fed’s independence and into the rate path that underpins all risk assets, including Bitcoin.

For BTC, a structurally weaker dollar and higher political risk are long-term supportive, but they can produce short, violent squeezes in both directions as rates, shutdown odds and Fed leadership headlines cross the tape.

Fear & Greed, American selling pressure and Dalio-style macro stress

Sentiment indicators back the idea that the current range is defined by fear, not euphoria. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped into “extreme fear” earlier this week, despite BTC-USD holding in the high $80,000s. That combination—elevated price with depressed sentiment—is typical of consolidations, not blow-off tops.

At the same time, macro voices like Ray Dalio warn that the U.S. is nearing a crisis point, with Bitcoin facing “American selling pressure.” That framing fits the data: U.S.-domiciled ETFs dumped $1.33 billion in BTC last week and are still net sellers this week, even though overall outflows have slowed to around $140 million. Domestic institutional players are clearly trimming risk into macro uncertainty rather than aggressively treating Bitcoin as a safe haven. For now, U.S. balance sheets are liquidity providers on the way down, not buyers of last resort.

Altcoin tape and cross-market context: risk is bruised, not dead

Altcoins provide extra context for the BTC stance. With ETH-USD near $3,027, XRP-USD around $1.89–$1.92, and SOL-USD roughly $127, high-beta names are holding up, not collapsing. That fits with a market in defensive risk-on, where traders are more selective but still willing to hold volatility.

On the traditional side, the S&P 500 trades above 6,990, having touched 7,000 for the first time, the Nasdaq sits near 23,900, and the Dow Jones hovers around 49,000. Gold above $5,200 and silver near $117–$118 tell you that hard-asset demand is intense, and Bitcoin’s underperformance is relative, not absolute. This is a rotation within risk and hedges, not a full liquidation of the crypto complex.

Innovation around BTC: Bitcoin Hyper and the search for new narratives

While spot price consolidates, builders are pushing new narratives around BTC-USD liquidity. One example is Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), a token raising capital on the idea of merging Bitcoin’s settlement security with Solana-level speed and costs. With a presale already above $31 million and a current token price around $0.013645, the project is marketed as a way to deploy Bitcoin-linked value into fast smart contracts, dApps and meme coins.

Regardless of whether HYPER delivers, the key takeaway is that capital is actively searching for ways to leverage BTC’s brand and security without being stuck with slow L1 throughput. These experiments matter because they can either increase Bitcoin’s utility and fee income or siphon speculative energy into side assets. Right now, they underline a reality: much of the new upside optionality in the ecosystem is orbiting BTC-USD rather than being fully captured by the base asset itself.

Buy, sell or hold BTC-USD at $89,000: late-stage boom, not full bubble

Pulling everything together—price near $89,000–$90,000, long-term holders offloading 143,000 BTC, ETF outflows of $1.33 billion last week and $140 million this week, underperformance versus gold and silver, but +430% performance since the 2022 bottom and clear support at $87,145 and $84,099—the signal is nuanced but decisive.

The tape shows a late-stage boom, not a terminal bubble. Fundamentals and three-year returns justify high prices, but short- to medium-term positioning is crowded, and the weekly EMA crossover plus FOMC history argue for volatility and shakeouts.

On a clean scale:
– At current levels near $89,000, BTC-USD is a Hold for existing institutional-style positions.
– Tactically, the structure is moderately bullish as long as $87,145–$84,099 holds, with upside targets in the $93,300–$98,000 band on a successful break above $91,200.
– From a fresh capital perspective, the highest-quality entries are buying into fear closer to $84,000–$87,000, not chasing breakouts above $95,000 immediately after a Fed event.

Verdict based strictly on the data: BTC-USD is a Hold with a bullish bias, with Buy-on-dips favored between $84,000 and $87,000 and a clear risk line if weekly support and ETF cost basis fail. This is still a leader of the cycle—just no longer the only hard asset in town.

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