XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD: Fed decision traps price near $1.90 with $1.70–$2.40 on watch

XRP-USD: Fed-day compression around $1.90 keeps bulls and bears locked in a tight range

Macro backdrop anchors XRP-USD near $1.90 as the Fed holds the market hostage

XRP-USD is trading around $1.90–$1.92, after pushing up to roughly $1.94 and fading toward $1.88 during the regular New York session. That is a tight range for a token that has already traded from below $0.40 to above $3.60 over the last year and is still down about 37% year-on-year, which tells you straight away this is a compression phase, not a trend climax.
Short-term performance confirms the stall: one data series prints +0.59% on Tuesday and +0.23% on Wednesday, another shows around +0.4% over the last 24 hours with highs just under $1.92 and lows near $1.87–$1.88. The move is driven by macro, not some sudden idiosyncratic XRP story. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its policy band at 3.50%–3.75%; futures markets and Fed probability tools are almost fully pricing a pause, so traders are focused on Powell’s language around growth, inflation and the future path of cuts.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index has already cracked key support: it failed above $97.50, slid to around $96.10–96.12, and is now probing Fibonacci support in the $95.6–$95.8 area with risk into $95.00–$94.80. That drop pushed the dollar to its weakest levels since early 2022 and triggered talk of a “crisis of confidence” in the greenback after President Trump publicly dismissed this month’s dollar weakness and floated fresh 100% tariff threats toward Canada.
Crypto is trading exactly as a high-beta play on this setup. BTC is consolidating just under $90,000, around $89,100–$89,559, up roughly 0.8–1.9% with a critical support band at $85,000 and the real breakout trigger above $90,000. ETH sits around $3,000–$3,020, up 2–3% in the last day after repeatedly bouncing between $2,700 support and $3,300 resistance. In that context, XRP-USD edging around $1.90 is the classic “coiled spring” price action you expect when the entire risk complex is waiting for one press conference to decide the next leg.

Short-term structure: XRP-USD base at $1.70–$1.90, ceiling still at $2.40

Price structure for XRP-USD is clean and narrow. On multiple venues and timeframes, the token has built a demand zone between $1.70 and $1.90. Every dip toward the high-$1.70s / low-$1.80s has attracted buyers, while each push into the low-$1.90s stalls as supply shows up.
The previous impulsive leg topped in the $2.40–$2.47 area. That region was aligned with Fibonacci extension levels and triggered aggressive profit taking, which started the current corrective wave. Since that rejection, price has been capped below $2.40, with repeated failed attempts to build traction through the low-$1.90s resistance band.
Right now the key local levels are straightforward: short-term support sits at $1.87–$1.88, where long lower wicks show responsive dip-buying, while intraday resistance sits at $1.93–$1.95, where overlap between prior breakdown levels and short-term moving averages repeatedly cuts off upside attempts. As long as XRP-USD holds above $1.70, the structure is a controlled consolidation, not a breakdown. A decisive daily close above $2.05, and especially above $2.40, would mark a structural change and open a path toward $3.00–$3.50.

Trend and momentum: XRP-USD still in a short-term downtrend below key EMAs

On the 4-hour chart, XRP-USD is not in a confirmed bullish trend. Price trades below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs, and all three are sloping down. That combination signals sustained bearish control rather than a quick shakeout.
The full leg down started after the failure in the $2.40–$2.47 area, where Fibonacci extension resistance coincided with heavy profit-taking. Since then, the chart has printed a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows, exactly what you want to see if you are short-term bearish.
Support and resistance are layered in tight bands. The $1.87–$1.88 area is the immediate line in the sand; a break there exposes $1.80–$1.81, which was a prior consolidation shelf, and then the more important $1.77 level, tied into the broader Fib structure and used by multiple analysts as a structural downside marker. On the upside, the first real test for momentum is that $1.93–$1.95 cluster around short-term moving averages. Above that, more meaningful supply waits in the $2.02–$2.05 zone and then the heavier $2.17–$2.28 band, which previously absorbed rallies and marked distribution.
Momentum indicators echo that tone. RSI on the higher timeframes has retreated from overbought, but price remains below the main moving averages, signaling that the rally phase is over and the market is in a corrective regime with potential for one more flush if macro conditions flip against risk.

Derivatives and flows: leverage in XRP has been cut back, spot buyers still cautious

Derivatives positioning around XRP has cooled significantly. Open interest exploded above $10 billion during the late-2025 push, then compressed toward roughly $3.4 billion as the market rolled over. That is a major deleveraging: the bulk of speculative leverage built into the prior rally has been unwound. Importantly, the data does not point to a flood of outright shorts; it looks more like traders closing positions and de-risking ahead of the Fed, not an aggressive capitulation move.
Spot flows tell the same story. Net outflows have dominated over an extended period, including during brief price rebounds. Inflow spikes during rallies failed to sustain, which means larger players used strength to distribute rather than accumulate. You are not seeing the type of persistent spot absorption that usually precedes a secular upside break.
Put together, XRP-USD sits in a reduced-leverage, low-conviction zone. Derivatives are not heavily skewed to one side, and spot participants are unwilling to chase at current levels. That makes Fed day particularly important: a dovish surprise or a continuation of dollar weakness can flip this positioning into fuel for a squeeze higher, while a hawkish tone or a sharp DXY bounce can shake out the remaining weak longs and retest the $1.80–$1.77 supports.

Fundamental layer: Ripple Treasury and institutional use add real utility to XRP

While short-term price action for XRP is technical and macro-driven, there is a non-trivial fundamental story developing in the background. Ripple has launched Ripple Treasury, a platform aimed squarely at corporate treasurers and institutional cash managers. The product integrates GTreasury’s enterprise software with Ripple’s blockchain infrastructure, allowing corporates to manage liquidity, reconcile assets and settle cross-border flows more efficiently.
Transactions using the RLUSD stablecoin on this stack can settle in seconds instead of the multi-day cycles seen in legacy correspondent banking. On top of that, Ripple Treasury is designed to aggregate fiat and digital balances into a single interface, replacing fragmented manual workflows. For institutions, that is not a speculative meme; it is an operational efficiency gain.
For XRP, the key point is that Ripple continues to position the token as part of a broader liquidity and settlement stack rather than a pure speculation vehicle. When institutional flows run through Ripple infrastructure, XRP can be used as a bridge asset, backing the narrative that it is a liquidity token rather than just another high-beta coin. That does not guarantee higher prices, but it gives a fundamental anchor that many small-cap altcoins simply do not have. In an environment where regulators are slowly tightening the screws on unbacked speculative projects, that matters.

Regulation, SEC overhang and the structural role of XRP

Regulatory risk still sits over XRP like a ceiling. Ripple remains entangled in an ongoing legal process with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over past XRP sales. Every new filing, partial judgement, or regulatory comment can swing sentiment sharply, both on the upside and downside. The last year of price action, from sub-$0.40 to above $3.60 and back toward $1.90, shows how tightly price is tied to headlines rather than purely on-chain growth.
At the same time, analysts looking beyond the immediate legal noise frame XRP as a potential bridge currency for cross-border payments. Long-term projections out to 2030 in some institutional-style models cluster in the $6–$10 band as a plausible range if — and only if — there is a meaningful expansion of real settlement flows using the XRP Ledger in the banking and fintech stack.
The competitive landscape is the real structural risk. Stablecoins and future CBDCs can offer low-volatility settlement rails on top of existing fiat currencies. XRP has to compete not only with other smart-contract platforms, but with regulated tokenized fiat that might be easier for banks to integrate. On top of that, the circulating supply of XRP is large — roughly 60.85 billion tokens — which mechanically caps the upside for market-cap-driven valuations compared to scarcer assets.

The $100 debate: why ultra-bullish XRP targets remain extreme tail scenarios

The ultra-bull corner has not gone quiet. Some prominent XRP advocates argue that the standard market-cap math does not apply. Their claim: XRP is a high-velocity liquidity asset, not a static store of value, so the same units can recycle rapidly across transactions and “support” far greater economic flows than the headline market cap implies. On that logic, they insist $100 per XRP is not “delusional” if the token underpins a large share of global settlement flows.
The numbers are hard to ignore though. At roughly $1.90–$1.92, XRP would need to climb about 5,100% to reach $100. With a circulating supply near 60.85 billion, a simple price × supply calculation implies a nominal market cap around $6 trillion at that level, larger than today’s entire crypto market and approaching the scale of major global asset classes. The liquidity-recycling argument might justify high valuations relative to static mcap logic, but it does not erase the arithmetic: if the market trades XRP at $100, that market cap figure will still print on price aggregators.
Realistically, multi-trillion dollar valuations demand massive, verifiable, sustained settlement flows, full regulatory clarity, and deep integration with the banking system. None of that is currently proven. The far more grounded long-term debate is between scenarios where XRP becomes a niche but profitable settlement asset (supporting mid-single-digit prices) and scenarios where competition from stablecoins, CBDCs and regulatory drag keep it rangebound or lower.

Long-term adoption path for XRP-USD toward 2030

Into 2030, the central question is whether XRP-USD secures a durable role in real-world payment infrastructure. In a base case where Ripple continues to sign institutional clients, Ripple Treasury gains adoption, and legal/regulatory clarity gradually improves, it is reasonable to argue for gradual appreciation into the mid-single-digit zone, in line with the $6–$10 band some models reference. That requires real settlement volumes, not just new announcements.
A stronger bull case assumes XRP becomes a widely used liquidity asset for cross-border flows, standing alongside or on top of stablecoin rails rather than being displaced by them. In that scenario, long-term valuations could overshoot those conservative ranges. However, that is highly path-dependent — it relies on execution by Ripple, the comfort level of banks, the shape of future regulation, and how aggressively CBDCs and tokenized bank money roll out.
On the downside, if stablecoins and CBDCs become the default rails for cross-border transactions and big institutions see little incremental benefit in adding XRP to the stack, the token risks remaining an event-driven, low-conviction asset that trades violently around legal headlines and macro shifts without building a sustainable utility premium.

Fed scenarios, levels and tactical bias on XRP-USD

For the next leg, XRP-USD is essentially a leveraged bet on how the Fed and the dollar trade in the coming weeks, layered on top of its own technical structure.
If Powell signals he is in no hurry to cut aggressively, leans hawkish on inflation risks, or pushes back against the recent dollar weakness, the DXY can squeeze higher from the $95.6–$96.1 region back toward $97.50–$98.40. In that scenario, risk assets likely catch a downside shock. For XRP-USD, a clear daily break below $1.87–$1.88 would then open $1.80–$1.81, with the $1.77 structural support as the key level. A loss of $1.77 would confirm that the current consolidation has morphed into a deeper correction.
If Powell sounds cautious and patient, hints at a willingness to resume cuts if growth softens, or at least refuses to endorse tighter-for-longer language, the dollar can stay on the back foot. DXY then has room to probe deeper into the mid-$95s or even test $95.00, which would support a risk-on extension. For XRP-USD, that backdrop plus the current $1.70–$1.90 accumulation zone and reduced leverage could be enough to break $1.93–$1.95, then $2.02–$2.05, and make a serious attempt at $2.17–$2.28. A clean daily close above $2.40 would be the confirmation that this entire consolidation was a base, not a topping pattern, and that the path toward $3.00–$3.50 is open.
Tactically, the market has already done a lot of de-risking: open interest is down from $10B to roughly $3.4B, spot flows are muted, and price has not broken the $1.70 floor. That makes XRP-USD highly sensitive to any macro surprise.

Verdict on XRP-USD: speculative buy with a hard line at $1.77

Combining macro, technicals, flows and fundamentals, the balance for XRP-USD at around $1.90 is clear. The short-term trend is down, price sits below the key EMAs, and spot demand is cautious. At the same time, leverage has already been flushed out, there is a well-defined base between $1.70 and $1.90, macro conditions are currently dollar-negative, and Ripple is still pushing real enterprise utility through products like Ripple Treasury.
On that basis, the profile is not attractive for a conservative investor who wants clean trend confirmation; for that cohort, XRP-USD is a Hold, with a trigger to upgrade only after a sustained reclaim of $2.05–$2.40.
For aggressive, macro-aware traders able to sit through volatility and respect a clear invalidation level, the setup justifies a speculative Buy with risk defined below $1.77. Upside targets in that framework are $2.17–$2.28 first, then $2.40, and, if the Fed and dollar cooperate, an extension into the $3.00–$3.50 zone. The $100 narratives remain marketing noise — the real battle over the next few years is whether XRP proves it can earn and keep a serious role in global settlement infrastructure.

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