Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Holds Around $69K as ETF Inflows and Strategy Buying Cushion the Selloff

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD grinds around $69,000 after a violent reset

Short-term structure for BTC-USD between $60,000 and $71,751

BTC-USD trades around $68,900–$69,300 after swinging between roughly $68,400 and $71,000 during the latest session. It sits about 45% below the October all-time high north of $126,000, when a combination of forced liquidations and large whale sales triggered a sharp “crypto winter” style correction. The recent phase included the worst single-day loss since November 2022 and a sequence of weekly declines exceeding 30%, driving price down to a local low near $60,000 before the rebound.
Price is currently boxed into a tight band. After recovering from $60,000, BTC-USD has moved sideways between about $67,300 and $71,751. That $67,300 area is the lower edge of the current consolidation; the zone around $71,751 marks the upper barrier. Each break above $70,000 has faded quickly, while dips toward the high $60,000s still find buyers, but only with measured, not aggressive, demand.

On-chain cycle signals: 50% profitable supply and the first clean bottom setup in years

On-chain data indicate stress, not euphoria. The share of BTC-USD supply in profit has fallen to roughly 50%, implying that about half of circulating coins are now at or below their owners’ purchase price. Historically, this 50% profitability threshold has been associated with cycle bottoms and late-stage bear zones rather than blow-off tops. When only half the supply is in profit, the incentive to dump coins weakens and many long-term holders prefer to wait rather than lock in losses.
Cycle indicators that track long-term moving averages tell a similar story. The structure comparing a shorter 111-day average to a longer 350-day-based band is far from a topping configuration. Instead of the short average spiking above the long one, it runs below, reflecting a market that has cooled down rather than overheated. This is the first clear, textbook bottom-style signal in nearly three years, and it appears while the broader macro uptrend that began in early 2023 is still intact.

Multi-timeframe technicals: $67,300, $65,520, $63,007 and $60,000 are the critical BTC-USD levels

Technically, BTC-USD is in a sideways channel with a defined floor and ceiling. In the 4-hour view, price is locked between support at roughly $67,300 and resistance in the $71,672–$71,751 band. A clean break and close below $67,300 would be the first confirmation that the market is ready to revisit deeper support levels.
Momentum signals are turning negative on this timeframe. The 4-hour RSI has slipped under the neutral 50 line, showing that bearish pressure is building, while MACD lines are converging and close to a bearish crossover. If that crossover confirms while BTC-USD loses the $67,300 floor, a slide back toward $60,000 becomes a realistic short-term scenario.
The daily chart adds more precision. After nearly a 9% drop last week, BTC-USD hit $60,000 and bounced, then retested resistance at $73,072 before rolling over again. Below the $67,300 zone, the first meaningful support sits near $65,520, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement drawn from the August 2024 low around $49,000 to the October 2025 peak near $126,199. If that level breaks, attention shifts toward the region around $63,007, which aligns with the 23.6% retracement from the broader move and has acted as a deeper, structural line in the sand.
Daily RSI hovers near 32 and is angled down, edging toward oversold territory, while the daily MACD has already triggered a bearish crossover. That combination usually precedes either a volatile washout into final support or a noisy bottoming process with repeated tests of the same zone. As long as BTC-USD holds above $60,000 on closing basis, the larger bullish trend from $49,000 is damaged but not broken. A sustained break under $60,000 would confirm that the market has shifted from a corrective phase into a deeper cycle reset.

Derivatives and liquidations: leverage in BTC-USD still amplifies every move

Derivatives positioning explains why the tape feels unstable around $69,000. Recent swings between roughly $68,000 and $71,000 have already wiped out both sides of the leveraged crowd. A push to about $71,000 liquidated roughly $130 million of short positions, followed by a drop back toward $68,000 that erased around $150 million of longs. Across the broader crypto space, 24-hour liquidations have exceeded $250 million even as spot price stayed inside a relatively narrow band.
Heat-map and order-book data highlight dense pockets of resting liquidity above $72,000–$74,000 and below around $66,000–$68,000. The area between $66,000 and $68,000 has become a preferred zone for stop hunts and liquidity sweeps, which is why intraday rallies beyond $70,000 are consistently sold and dips rapidly attract both forced and opportunistic flows.
Whale flow adds to the pressure. Larger holders have been distributing into strength over the last 24 hours, forcing BTC-USD to grind downward toward support rather than break cleanly higher. Until that pattern flips, volatility will stay elevated, and the short-term bias inside the current range remains tilted to the downside.

Spot volumes, profitability and demand: BTC-USD stabilizes, but buyers are not yet in charge

Spot trading confirms a cooling market. Daily BTC-USD volume has fallen to roughly $111 billion, down sharply from more than $300 billion during the peak of the selloff. Activity is still elevated versus quiet mid-cycle periods, but the behavior is reactive: traders respond to price swings rather than drive a sustained trend.
On-chain flow shows more coins moving, but fiat inflows are not keeping pace. Demand has slipped into negative territory, indicating that supply hitting the market exceeds fresh capital coming in. That divergence is typical of transition phases, where a strong advance slows and the market either forms a sideways base or rolls into a deeper correction.
Profitability is compressed, capital inflows are modest, and hedging appetite is high in spot, derivatives and ETF markets. This is not a setup for an explosive breakout; it is a setup for an extended base-building process with sharp traps on both sides.

*ETF flows and corporate balance sheets: structural support from spot funds and MSTR

Despite softer spot demand, the structural underpinnings of BTC-USD are stronger than in prior cycles. U.S. spot ETFs have returned to net inflows. One recent session registered about $145 million of net inflow, following roughly $371 million two days earlier. Within that total, a fund labeled “BTC” brought in around $130.5 million, while BlackRock’s flagship IBIT product saw outflows near $20.9 million. Flows are rotating rather than collapsing; overall, more money is entering ETF wrappers than leaving them.
On the corporate side, the most aggressive listed holder continues to accumulate. Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) disclosed the purchase of 1,142 BTC-USD between February 2 and 8, spending about $90 million at an average price around $78,815 per coin. That transaction lifts its stash to roughly 714,644 Bitcoin, with an aggregate average cost around $76,056.
This matters because MSTR is effectively a leveraged proxy on BTC-USD inside the equity market. Continued buying above and below current prices signals that management views the $60,000–$70,000 band as attractive on a multi-year horizon. At the same time, spot ETF outflows remain modest—around 7% of assets—relative to a price correction that reached about 50% from peak to trough. That gap shows the structural investor base is much more stable than the spot price behavior implies.

Sentiment and narratives: from ‘crisis of confidence’ to talk of $150,000 and a long bear window

Sentiment has flipped from greed to fear. Crypto market gauges show “extreme fear” even as total market capitalization holds near $2.4 trillion and BTC-USD trades close to $69,000 rather than at cycle lows. That combination—large aggregate valuations with deep pessimism—typically appears in mid-cycle drawdowns rather than final capitulations.
One major research house describes the latest slide as a “crisis of confidence.” Under that interpretation, no core component of the Bitcoin system has failed, the ETF structure remains intact, and there are no hidden structural liabilities surfacing. From that angle, the bear case is weaker than in the past because regulation, custody and institutional channels are more mature. That same outlook is tied to a year-end target around $150,000 for BTC-USD, implying upside of more than 100% from the current band if the long-term pattern plays out.
Other analysts take a colder stance, pointing to the $65,000 area—about 52% below the October 2025 peak—as a marker of a bear phase that could run into the fourth quarter of 2026. That view frames the current price region as the middle of a prolonged down leg rather than a pre-breakout consolidation.
Active desk positioning reflects this tension. A head of digital assets at one firm recently increased net long exposure to roughly 80% while explicitly holding back capital to add on a possible revisit into the $50,000s. That approach acknowledges that the long-term structure remains constructive while the short-term path remains vulnerable to another flush.

Macro cross-asset context: equities, gold and BTC-USD competing for the same capital

The macro environment is not hostile to risk, but competition for capital is fierce. U.S. equity indices trade around record levels, with the Dow above 50,000 and the S&P 500 close to 7,000. Japan’s Nikkei sits near 57,650–57,800 after a historic rally that followed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election victory and expectations for pro-growth reforms. The dollar has weakened modestly, while the U.S. 10-year yield has eased back toward roughly 4.15%, and markets price about two Federal Reserve cuts this year.
At the same time, gold has reclaimed the premium hedge role. Spot prices have climbed back above $5,000 per ounce and now hold around $5,040–$5,065. Several large institutions outline paths toward $6,000 if geopolitical risks remain elevated and real yields drift lower. A key argument supporting gold is the profile of its buyers: central banks are consistently adding to their reserves, creating a floor that BTC-USD does not yet enjoy.
In this environment, BTC-USD trades more like a high-beta risk token than a defensive hedge. On strong jobs or hot inflation days, when yields spike and the dollar rallies, Bitcoin tends to sell off harder than equities. On dovish days, it outperforms but with higher volatility. That behavior complicates its role in diversified portfolios and slows the pace of deeper institutional adoption.

*Structural issues and resilience: quantum chatter, miners, and the adaptability of BTC-USD

Two structural debates shape the long view. The first is technological risk. Quantum computing is frequently cited as a future threat to Bitcoin’s current cryptographic primitives. For now, the consensus inside the space is that the risk is not imminent and that the network can upgrade if and when hardware capability truly demands it, particularly with backing from large corporate holders and asset managers that cannot afford to see their exposure destroyed.
The second is miner stress. Recent weeks have seen increased miner transfers to exchanges as operators cover energy costs, hardware investments and debt. That constant background supply adds pressure to BTC-USD whenever spot demand fades. If price holds above $60,000 while miners sell, it demonstrates deep underlying bid strength; if price slips and miner selling persists, it amplifies downside moves.
Despite these concerns, the protocol continues to run without interruption. Blocks confirm, fees clear, and the broader custody and trading infrastructure improves. The real question has shifted away from survival and toward valuation: what is the appropriate price for an asset with this risk profile, volatility and structural tailwinds.

Trading stance for BTC-USD: near-term downside risk versus medium-term upside – net Buy with staged entries

The current zone near $69,000 for BTC-USD presents a clear risk-reward profile. On the downside, a confirmed break below $67,300, followed by a loss of $65,520 and $63,007, would likely drag price back toward $60,000. That implies roughly 13%–15% short-term downside from current levels. On the upside, a decisive move through $71,672 and then $73,072 would signal that sellers have lost control of the range; beyond that, prior cycle patterns and the presence of ETF and corporate accumulation make a retest of the old high near $126,199 and an eventual push toward the aggressive $150,000 scenarios entirely plausible.
This sets up an asymmetric profile: limited but real near-term risk versus significantly larger medium-term upside. Structural buyers such as MSTR, spot ETFs and a gradually maturing institutional base provide a floor that did not exist in earlier cycles, while on-chain metrics show the first credible bottom signals in years.
From a positioning standpoint, BTC-USD justifies a Buy rating, with the explicit understanding that volatility remains high and entry should be staged. Accumulating in tranches between roughly $60,000 and $69,000 rather than committing at a single price aligns with a market where conditions are still defensive but improving, profitability is compressed, ETF and corporate flows are supportive, and macro catalysts such as upcoming payrolls and CPI have the power to flip the narrative from cautious stabilization to renewed expansion very quickly.

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