Ethereum Price Forecast: $2,000 Reset, $1,500 Risk and a Long-Term Path Toward $10K–$18K

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Deep reset, heavy accumulation and an upside-skewed roadmap

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Price structure between $1,500 and $2,700

Ethereum (ETH-USD) has already absorbed a violent reset. From early-2026 highs it has dropped about 35%, flushing into the $1,820 zone, and it now trades roughly in the $2,000–$2,050 band after another 13.2% weekly slide and around 3% down on the day. Measured from the 2025 peak near $5,000, the drawdown is roughly 62%, which is a full cycle reset, not a routine dip.
On the daily chart ETH is locked in a clear descending channel: a sequence of lower highs since late-2025 and lower lows into the $1,800–$1,700 demand region. That zone has produced the current reaction, but the downtrend is still intact and the $2,300–$2,400 bearish fair value gap now behaves as the first serious ceiling. Daily RSI has bounced from deeply oversold levels but remains in a bearish regime, so any bounce is a counter-trend move, not yet a trend change.
On the weekly chart, price has again failed to hold above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and the MACD has already turned lower with a bearish crossover. That keeps a live path toward $1,847, with a realistic risk spike into the $1,600–$1,500 area if macro risk intensifies.
The 4-hour structure defines the tactical range. ETH carved out a local base above $1,800, with resistance at $2,100, then $2,200, and higher at $2,300–$2,400. Holding $1,800 keeps the recovery setup valid and gives room for a push toward $2,200–$2,500. A clear break under $1,800 reopens $1,600 and then $1,500 as the next magnets on the daily chart.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Stablecoin throughput and the 200% divergence

Underneath the price, the usage picture does not match a dying asset. Over roughly 18 months, stablecoin transactions on Ethereum have risen about 200%, while ETH itself has dropped more than 35% from early-2026 highs and more than 60% from the 2025 peak.
That divergence is typical of a structural reset phase. The chain is increasingly used as a settlement layer for stablecoins and token flows while the coin trades at a heavy discount to that activity. Historically, Ethereum has shown this pattern before: fundamentals improve first, then price eventually snaps higher to catch up. The 2019–2020 period is the obvious precedent that current analysts are pointing at.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – MVRV bands, realized price and where sellers run out

On-chain valuation confirms that the market is closer to exhaustion than euphoria. The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands currently show Ethereum (ETH-USD) trading near the –0.5σ band, close to its realized price. In previous cycles this zone has acted as a demand area where a large share of holders sits near break-even and forced selling starts to dry up.
Crucially, ETH has not spent sustained time below the –1.0σ band in this cycle. That deeper band is where the true capitulation events sat in 2018 and in the 2020 crash. The current pattern instead looks like a mid-cycle reset, similar to late-2022 and early-2025, when price compressed around realized value before reversing higher once sellers were drained and new demand stepped in.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Exchange supply ratio at 0.135 and the shrinking tradable float

The exchange supply ratio for Ethereum (ETH-USD) has kept grinding lower and now sits near 0.135. That implies only about 13.5% of total ETH supply is parked on centralized exchanges, with the majority staked, deployed in DeFi or sitting in self-custody.
Short term, this thins out order books and amplifies volatility: derivatives and liquidations can push price hard in both directions because there is less spot available. Medium term, it is constructive. A low exchange float plus a completed drawdown is exactly the configuration that often marks late corrective phases. When demand recovers, there is simply less ETH available to satisfy it at current levels, forcing price to adjust upward if the bid scales.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – BitMine’s multi-million ETH bet and balance-sheet conviction

The largest, clearest positioning signal is coming from balance-sheet buyers. BitMine Immersion Technologies has continued accumulating Ethereum (ETH-USD) into this weakness instead of cutting exposure. In the most recent buying wave the firm disclosed the purchase of 40,613 ETH in a week, taking total holdings to about 4.325 million ETH as of February 8, 2026.
On-chain flows then showed another 20,000 ETH acquired via FalconX and another 20,000 ETH via BitGo, roughly $42.3 million for one tranche and around $83.4 million in a single day when both blocks are combined. At current prices BitMine controls more than 4.3 million ETH, explicitly aiming for roughly 5% of circulating supply, and is carrying around $7–8 billion in unrealized losses after the drawdown.
Despite that, the firm is still adding. Its own stock BMNR closed near $21.45, up about 4.8% after the latest purchase disclosure. That behavior is straightforward: a large, levered balance sheet is treating $1,800–$2,100 in Ethereum (ETH-USD) as a long-horizon entry zone, not a reason to capitulate.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Network throughput, addresses and why this is not a dead chain

The accumulation is happening on a busy network, not on a ghost chain. 2026 data show around 2.5 million daily transactions on Ethereum and roughly 1 million active addresses, even as price trades near $2,000 and far below the last cycle high.
That combination of high usage, shrinking exchange supply and ongoing treasury accumulation does not describe a topping process. It describes a system that is being used heavily while price is still repricing macro and positioning risk lower.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – U.S. spot demand, Coinbase premium and the offshore bid

The Coinbase Premium Index has stayed mostly negative during this drawdown, which means U.S. spot demand has been weaker than offshore demand. Earlier in the cycle, brief spikes into positive territory lined up with upside bursts, confirming that U.S. flows were driving those moves.
Recently, attempts to push the premium back above zero have failed to stick, even as Ethereum (ETH-USD) consolidates. That pattern says U.S. accounts remain cautious, while the heavier bid is coming from offshore venues and institutional-style accumulators rather than broad U.S. spot buying.
The latest bounce in the premium from cycle lows matters because it shows sub-$2,000 is starting to attract interest again. But until the premium can hold positive during rallies, it is still an offshore-led market, not a fully engaged U.S. tape.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Fed regime, risk assets and why every rally is guilty first

Macro remains a headwind. A hawkish Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve and persistent geopolitical noise keep all risk assets on a short leash. For Ethereum (ETH-USD) that translates mechanically into short, sharp rallies that fade, followed by equally aggressive selloffs whenever the dollar firms or rate expectations reprice.
As long as this environment persists, moves into the $2,300–$2,700 band should be treated as tests of supply, not as confirmed trend reversals, unless price can reclaim and then hold above that zone while on-chain and spot-flow indicators improve in parallel.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Immediate defensive levels at $1,800, $1,600 and $1,500

The first job is defense. $1,800 is the key short-term floor for Ethereum (ETH-USD). It coincides with the lower boundary of the descending daily channel and sits inside the $1,800–$1,700 demand region that just halted the last capitulation leg.
If that region fails on a closing basis, the next technical levels are around $1,600 and then the $1,500 band highlighted by weekly MACD and Fibonacci mapping. A slide into $1,500–$1,600 would be another 20–25% drop from roughly $2,000, painful but fully consistent with historical mid-cycle washouts. For a multi-year horizon, that zone becomes a high-conviction accumulation region if the macro backdrop does not structurally change for the worse.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Recovery path through $2,200, $2,500 and $2,700

The upside path is clear in stages.
First, $2,100–$2,200 needs to be cleared and held. Moving through that resistance confirms that the $1,800 base is more than a dead-cat bounce.
Next, $2,300–$2,400 is the bearish fair value gap built by the breakdown. Filling and turning that zone into support is exactly what shows that aggressive sellers are losing control.
Then, $2,500–$2,700 becomes the key band near the midline of the descending channel and just under the last breakdown area. A sustained push above $2,500 and the channel midline is what starts to argue that the entire downtrend from 2025 is ending rather than simply pausing.
This roadmap mirrors the early-2025 fractal: ETH briefly broke below moving averages, tagged the long-term rising trendline anchored in 2022, absorbed forced selling, reclaimed those averages and then delivered a 200%+ rally over the following months. The same long-term trendline is in play again now. Confirmation will depend on whether Ethereum (ETH-USD) can execute the same reclaim above $2,500–$2,700.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – 2030 base case between $10,000 and $18,000

The 2030 lens is where the payoff becomes obvious. With Ethereum (ETH-USD) trading near $2,000 and roughly 20–25% lower over 12 months, a reasonable base case that assumes Ethereum keeps its role as the dominant smart-contract settlement layer puts end-of-decade pricing in a $10,000–$18,000 band.
That path assumes continued Layer-2 growth, sustained DeFi and stablecoin anchoring on Ethereum, and regulatory frameworks that allow institutional participation in staking and on-chain products at scale. Under that set of conditions the coin does not need extreme scenarios to justify a 5x–9x move from current levels by 2030.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Bull case scenarios toward $25,000–$40,000

The aggressive bull case pushes Ethereum (ETH-USD) toward $25,000–$40,000 by 2030. That requires large-scale tokenization of real-world assets, deep institutional use of Ethereum-based infrastructure, strong and persistent fee generation, and continued net supply reduction through burn and staking.
If Ethereum becomes a core layer for tokenized credit, equities, real estate and global payment rails, and if most of that value settles on the Ethereum plus L2 stack rather than migrating to competitors, a 12x–20x move from roughly $2,000 into that range is not unrealistic. Those outcomes are scenario-dependent but they explain why long-horizon capital is comfortable carrying drawdowns at current prices.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Bear case still implies $6,000–$9,000 by 2030

The downside long-term scenario is not a zero outcome; it is underutilization relative to potential. If adoption slows, regulation around DeFi and staking stays restrictive, and alternative L1s plus modular stacks take more share than expected, then Ethereum (ETH-USD) can still plausibly end the decade in a $6,000–$9,000 range.
That band would still imply around 3x–4.5x from the current $2,000 region but with much less attractive risk-adjusted returns than the base and bull cases. It is the scenario that materializes if Ethereum remains important but does not fully capitalize on its current lead.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Final stance: Buy, with staged accumulation and drawdown tolerance

Putting it together, the near-term picture is technically fragile: a descending channel, a bearish weekly MACD, failure at key Fibonacci levels and a clear risk of a further slide into $1,600–$1,500 if macro deteriorates.
At the same time, structural and on-chain data argue the other way:

Stablecoin activity up roughly 200% over 18 months while price fell more than 35%

Exchange supply ratio near 0.135, one of the lowest points in the series

Roughly 2.5 million daily transactions and 1 million active addresses in 2026

BitMine holding about 4.3 million ETH, targeting 5% of supply, adding ~40,000 ETH (~$83M) in a single day and carrying $7–8 billion in unrealized losses without cutting

Eight 50%+ drawdowns since 2018, each followed by a V-shaped recovery, including a 64% drop in 2025 from about $1,600 to nearly $5,000 later that year

With spot around $2,000, immediate risk down into $1,500–$1,600, and 2030 scenarios clustering between $10,000–$18,000 in the base case and $25,000–$40,000 in the bull case, while the bear case still sits near $6,000–$9,000, the skew is clear.
The rational stance for Ethereum (ETH-USD) is Buy, with staged accumulation across the $1,500–$2,200 zone and portfolio sizing that can absorb another 20–30% drawdown without forcing an exit. The structural thesis relies on usage, supply dynamics and long-term integration into digital finance, not on the next few weeks of price action.

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