Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Holds Near $77K After Violent Flush

Bitcoin price at a critical floor as BTC-USD absorbs a 38% drawdown

Intraday crash zone and current BTC-USD trading range

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has shifted from grinding highs to an outright stress test of its bull-market floor. After trading near $89,000, price collapsed into the mid-$70,000s, with one 24-hour range showing a peak around $84,356 and a low near $75,644. Earlier in the move, Thursday’s slide took BTC-USD into the low-$84,000s, then down to about $81,600 before the weekend selloff extended the damage. Across major venues, prints over the last sessions have clustered between roughly $77,000 and $79,000, including levels around $77,038, $77,296, $77,310, $78,000, $78,690 and $79,000. That puts Bitcoin down roughly 1.5% on the quieter days and 7%+ on the heaviest sessions, and roughly 38% below the all-time high near $126,100 hit in early October. The last time BTC-USD traded consistently in this zone was April 2025, underlining how far back the market has been forced to reset in just a few days.

Structure of the drop: from $126,100 peak to the $75,000–$80,000 correction band

From the top near $126,100, the correction is now in classic deep-pullback territory. The $75,000–$80,000 range corresponds to roughly a 37–40% decline from the peak. Several cycle specialists note that 35–40% drawdowns are historically normal inside Bitcoin bull runs: in earlier cycles, similar contractions marked violent but temporary setbacks rather than the end of the advance. This time, however, the path has been staggered. After the October top, BTC-USD bled lower, bounced, and then failed repeatedly to build fresh momentum. The latest break finally flushed price below prior pivot areas and into a zone that analysts explicitly frame as an “ultimate low” candidate for this cycle – but only if structural demand holds.

Leverage purge and weekend illiquidity: $800M–$1.68B in liquidations

The selling wave was leverage-driven, not just spot holders giving up. Derivatives data point to about $1.68 billion in crypto positions liquidated in a single session, with roughly 93% of that coming from longs – traders who were betting on continued upside and got closed out automatically as collateral was wiped out. Another dataset focused on futures markets flags roughly $800 million in forced closures specifically tied to the sharpest leg of the BTC-USD decline. This deleveraging hit when weekend liquidity was already thin, which magnified the move. Once the market lost the $82,500 support region, books were too shallow to absorb sell orders smoothly; price slid from around $84,356 to the mid-$70,000s in hours. Daily BTC-USD trading volume surged to roughly $75 billion, confirming that this was a true capitulation flush rather than a slow trend.

Altcoin spillover: double-digit drawdowns confirm broad risk-off

The move was market-wide, not a Bitcoin-only anomaly. Over a 24-hour window, Bitcoin (BTC) itself dropped about 7.54% and roughly 12.45% over seven days. Major altcoins saw even steeper hits: Ethereum (ETH) fell about 12.30% on the day and 11.13% over the week; BNB (BNB) slid around 9.20%; XRP (XRP) lost 10.55%; Solana (SOL) declined 13.43%; Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) were down approximately 13.40% and 13.76%; Bitcoin Cash (BCH) dropped about 12.35%. The only notable outlier was Hyperliquid (HYPE), which still fell more than 10% in 24 hours but remains up roughly 32.50% over the week. For BTC-USD, that backdrop confirms this is a broad de-risking across the crypto complex, not just isolated profit-taking in a single asset.

On-chain stress: BTC-USD trades below realized price as new addresses spike

On-chain data shows genuine pain. The realized market value – effectively the aggregate cost basis for the currently active BTC-USD supply – is around $80,700. Price has now fallen below that level for the first time since October 2023, which means a large chunk of coins sit at a book loss versus their last on-chain transfer. Historically, trades below realized price often mark late phases of a capitulation process. At the same time, address activity sends a different signal. The number of new Bitcoin addresses has jumped to the highest daily figure in nearly two months over the last 24 hours. That suggests that while short-term leveraged players are being washed out, longer-term participants and new entrants are stepping in to buy BTC-USD at reduced prices. That mix – heavily negative P&L for recent buyers but rising new participation – is typical of turning points in prior cycles.

Treasury concentration: Strategy’s BTC-USD book slips below its cost basis

No entity illustrates the capital-structure impact better than Strategy, the largest listed corporate holder of Bitcoin. The company has accumulated roughly 712,647 BTC, adding about 40,000 BTC since the start of the year alone. Its average cost basis is about $76,037 per Bitcoin. With BTC-USD trading in the $77,000 area and having dipped below $76,000, the position has flipped into net unrealized loss for the first time in this bull phase. Equity investors have reacted sharply. Strategy’s common stock is down about 6% for the week, closing below $150 and now around $143, nearly 70% under a local peak near $455 last July. The perpetual preferred STRC, with a $100 par value, has spent the week trading below par, even after a dividend increase intended to entice buyers. That sub-par trading muzzles Strategy’s ability to raise new capital via at-the-market equity programs tied to both the common and preferred.
Despite that, the executive chairman has again signaled further accumulation with his usual “More Orange” social posts following the dump. For BTC-USD, that is effectively an insider-style signal: the key decision-maker at the biggest public treasury holder is still choosing to add coins even as the firm’s total position crosses into red territory and equity investors punish the stock. The constraint is that, with MSTR down and STRC below $100, any new BTC-USD buys from this source are likely smaller and more opportunistic than the blockbuster purchases of earlier phases.

Macro overlay: shutdown uncertainty, Warsh nomination and metals shock

The macro backdrop has turned noisier just as BTC-USD cracked. The U.S. government has entered a partial shutdown after lawmakers missed a budget deadline, leaving several agencies temporarily unfunded. The Senate has approved a funding package that would keep most operations running through September and provide a two-week stopgap for the Department of Homeland Security, but the House of Representatives has yet to pass it. That uncertainty adds headline risk to all risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Simultaneously, President Donald Trump has moved to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, replacing Jerome Powell. Markets initially framed Warsh as a hawkish choice, hammering silver and gold, which “fell hard” just ahead of the BTC plunge. Some traders connected the dots: precious metals crashed, then BTC-USD followed as broader “hard asset” positioning unwound. Others argue the Warsh story is being overstated. Several macro strategists describe him as a pragmatist, not an ideological inflation warrior, warning that the “Warsh hawkish trade” of aggressively shorting risk could easily whipsaw once his actual policy stance becomes clearer.
For Bitcoin, the immediate impact is clear: correlations to risk assets and alternative stores of value have been high. The shutdown noise, Fed-chair politics and volatility in metals and equities have fed into a single risk-off impulse that helped push BTC-USD through key supports.

Technical landscape: 12-year trendline support versus broken short-term structure

Technically, BTC-USD is at a junction where long-term and short-term signals conflict. On the long-term chart, price has just touched a 12-year trendline support that has been cited by several technicians. One analyst notes that the last time Bitcoin bounced cleanly off this line, the market went on to rally roughly 400%. That history is the basis for the “tighten your seatbelts” narrative: structurally, a major cycle support has been tagged in the $75,000 zone at the same time a 37–40% drawdown has unfolded.
Shorter term, the picture is more bearish. BTC-USD has broken an ascending trendline that had been intact since late December and has fallen decisively below the 50-day exponential moving average around $90,000, with that moving average now acting as resistance. The failure to hold $82,500 and the inability to reclaim the $82,000–$84,000 band after the selloff mean this zone has flipped into a supply area. Until daily closes move back above that region and hold, the path of least resistance remains sideways to down.
Below current price, the next technical signposts are the recent panic low around $75,644 and the April 2025 trough near $74,500, which together define a first support zone in the low-to-mid $70,000s. If that area fails on volume, the prior macro high around $69,000 from November 2021 becomes the next obvious structural level. A slide from $77,000–$79,000 to $69,000 would add another 10–12% of downside, while a test of $60,000 – a level some veteran traders project for Q3 2026 – would extend the drawdown from the October peak to about 52%, fully in line with prior “deep cycle” washes.

**Cycle debate: capitulation low or bear-market regime for BTC-USD

Opinion is split on what this move represents in the cycle. One high-profile on-chain analyst argues there is a “decent chance” that this is the deepest pullback of the current bull run, explicitly comparing the setup to the 2018 capitulation near $3,000, the March 2020 crash around $5,100, and the FTX wipeout near $15,500. In his framework, $75,000–$80,000 is the probable cycle low zone: painful, but ultimately a buying opportunity if the long-term uptrend remains intact.
On the other side, a strategist at a major analytics firm describes “a sequence of breakdowns across major support levels” and clearly “bearish” spot and futures behavior, labelling the current phase as capitulation inside a new bear market regime. The firm’s CEO reinforces this view by pointing out that there is no obvious fresh capital entering the system; from his perspective, when market cap declines in the absence of new inflows, the structure is not bullish no matter how optimistic long-term holders feel.
Macro technicians contribute further downside markers. One veteran trader projects that BTC-USD could reach $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026. Another strategist, focusing on macro valuation models, suggests $65,000 is a realistic target in a “year off” where Bitcoin consolidates prior gains rather than expanding them. A cycle analyst expects the market-cycle low to occur in early October, warning that “plenty of rallies” are likely between now and then, meaning this correction could stretch out in time even if the $75,000–$80,000 band ultimately proves durable.
Balanced against that are more measured voices. One widely followed Bitcoin commentator reminds traders to “never trust a weekend pump or dump,” arguing that BTC-USD has a long history of reversing violent weekend moves once full liquidity returns. Another analyst emphasizes that 35–40% corrections are “not unheard of” during bull markets, positioning the current 37–40% drawdown as consistent with an still-intact uptrend, not proof that the cycle is over.

Narratives and sentiment extremes: fear, astrology and the ‘final dump’ story

As always in crypto, hard data is layered with narratives. One prominent social-media voice tied the crash to the “final full moon of the Snake year,” characterizing it as a phase of “silent accumulation” followed by “shedding” before the market “moves faster.” In this framing, the upcoming Year of the Horse is supposed to deliver “fast momentum, high speed, epic expansion and aggressive price moves,” with the next three months cast as decisive for whether BTC-USD embarks on a parabolic run.
While that explanation is not credible as a causal mechanism, its existence matters because it shapes behavior. Traders citing this story are effectively justifying buying fear and holding through volatility, which can increase the proportion of investors willing to sit on large drawdowns without selling. The real takeaway for BTC-USD is that sentiment is split between fear of a deeper bear and almost religious conviction that this is the last, best dip before a new leg toward or beyond $126,100. Extremes on both sides are typical of late-stage corrections.

**ETF flows and institutional positioning around BTC-USD

Spot and futures Bitcoin ETFs have reportedly seen roughly $6 billion in net outflows as the latest leg unfolded. For BTC-USD, that is a critical data point: this capital represents regulated, institution-friendly exposure. When those vehicles see heavy redemptions, it signals that larger pools are reducing risk, not leaning in to buy the dip. Combined with the hit to Strategy’s equity, this underscores that institutional risk appetite is, at least temporarily, curtailed at current prices.
At the same time, on-chain data showing spikes in new addresses suggests that some of the slack is being taken by smaller or newer investors. That rotation – outflows from ETF wrappers, inflows from fresh addresses – is not automatically bullish or bearish, but it does change who holds the marginal coin. A market anchored more in retail and smaller entities and less in large, slow-moving pools tends to be more volatile and more sentiment-driven in the short term.

Cross-asset comparison: BTC-USD versus gold and silver in the latest flush

The latest BTC-USD leg followed an “epic” crash in silver and a steep decline in gold, both of which sold off hard as markets digested the Warsh nomination and repricing of rate expectations. Some windows showed Bitcoin actually displaying relative strength versus gold, falling less in percentage terms even as both lost ground. That matters for the “digital gold” thesis.
On one side, the fact that BTC-USD, gold and silver all dropped together supports the view that Bitcoin trades as part of a broader hard-asset complex: when real yield expectations adjust or macro fear hits, they move in tandem. On the other, relative resilience versus gold during parts of the move gives bulls ammunition to argue that Bitcoin is evolving into a higher-beta hedge that can absorb macro shocks differently from metals. Over this week’s horizon, though, the message is simpler: this was a cross-asset de-risking where almost everything that had run hard – equities, metals, crypto – was forced to give back some gains.

Short-term trading context for BTC-USD: volatility, levels and risk profile

In the near term, BTC-USD is in a classic high-volatility trading environment. The key tactical resistance band is $82,000–$84,000; below that, every bounce is suspect. The first support zone is the $74,500–$75,644 region; if that gives way, attention will shift to $69,000 and then potentially $60,000–$65,000 as deeper downside targets discussed by macro technicians. With realized volatility elevated and leverage still being reset, intraday swings of 5–10% are likely to remain normal rather than exceptional. For short-term, leveraged traders, that profile justifies a defensive stance, with position sizes reduced and tight, pre-defined invalidation points.

Medium-term positioning: is BTC-USD a Buy, Sell or Hold here?

Over the next 6–12 months, the data point in one direction: BTC-USD is neither a straightforward Sell nor a low-risk Buy, but it is not neutral either. A 38% drawdown from $126,100, a 37–40% correction band in $75,000–$80,000, a touch of a 12-year trendline, price dipping below a realized price near $80,700, roughly $800M–$1.68B in liquidations, BTC-treasuries like Strategy sitting at or below cost basis around $76,037, ETF outflows near $6B, and a macro backdrop clouded by a U.S. shutdown and Fed-chair transition – this cluster defines a high-risk, high-optional value zone rather than a simple exit or entry.
For long-horizon, unleveraged investors who size positions prudently and can tolerate major volatility, this zone justifies a measured Buy/Hold bias. Historically, entries taken during 35–40% corrections at major long-term supports have been rewarded over multi-year horizons, even when price spent months grinding lower first. The risk is that the market follows the more bearish path toward $60,000–$65,000 or even retests $69,000 from above; the reward is that this proves to be the deep pullback of the cycle and BTC-USD eventually grinds or sprints back toward and beyond $126,100.
For short-term traders and for investors whose risk tolerance is lower, the stance is closer to Hold/underweight. The break of $82,500, the loss of the 50-day EMA at $90,000, and ambiguous ETF flows all argue against aggressive new leverage until BTC-USD can reclaim and hold at least the $82,000–$84,000 band.
Forced to choose a single label at current levels, and strictly based on data rather than optimism, BTC-USD sits in bullish Hold with selective Buy on deep dips toward the low-$70,000s, not in automatic Sell. The cycle risk has clearly risen, but so has the long-term payoff for capital that can survive another 10–20% downside before any eventual recovery.

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