Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH-USD Slides to $2,400 as $2.5B Liquidations Smash ETH-USD Below Key Support

Ethereum Price ETH-USD Under Pressure After $2,250 Weekend Flush

ETH-USD Shock Move From $3,300 Rejection to the $2,238–$2,250 Low

Ethereum (ETH-USD) has shifted from a failed breakout near the $3,200–$3,300 band to one of the sharpest pullbacks of this cycle, with price wicking down to roughly $2,238–$2,250 before stabilizing around the $2,400–$2,450 zone. The move carved out an intraday loss of up to 18%, while the broader crypto market shed about $220 billion in capitalization, sliding from roughly $2.84 trillion to $2.62 trillion. Bitcoin traded down toward the $75,600–$80,000 region and XRP slumped toward the $1.58–$1.80 area, but the percentage hit on ETH-USD was larger, confirming Ethereum as one of the main pressure points in this correction. The timing – a weekend session with thin liquidity and intense geopolitical tension – amplified the downside and turned a technical break into a full-scale flush.

Leverage Reset on ETH-USD After Roughly $2.5 Billion Market-Wide Liquidations

The core engine of the collapse in ETH-USD was leverage. Across the crypto complex, roughly $2.5 billion in positions were liquidated inside a 24-hour window, and about $1.1 billion of that hit Ethereum futures alone. That means nearly half of the forced liquidations were concentrated in ETH-USD, despite Bitcoin’s larger market cap. Longs were heavily skewed to the upside; once the $2,800 support failed, liquidation algorithms began closing positions at market, hitting stop clusters and cascading through order books. Thin weekend depth exaggerated every forced sale, accelerating the move from the $2,700s to the $2,200s in a short timeframe. The result is a classic leverage reset: overextended longs cleared out, open interest compressed, and spot price left sitting in a weaker but cleaner structure around $2,400–$2,450.

Whale Distribution: 1.1 Million ETH Sold, $2.8 Billion of ETH-USD Supply Dumped

On top of derivatives pressure, spot whales turned aggressively defensive. Addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have sold more than 1.1 million ETH over roughly a week, a block worth about $2.8 billion at current prices. That distribution directly weighs on ETH-USD, because bids must absorb very large clips at progressively lower levels. In practice, this selling has reinforced downside momentum: each bounce into resistance has been met by fresh supply from wallets that previously supported the trend. Structurally, this is late-cycle behaviour, with big holders using strength to exit instead of adding. Until that cohort either pauses or flips back to accumulation, ETH-USD remains exposed to further waves of spot selling on every rally toward the $2,600–$2,800 band.

On-Chain Stress in ETH-USD as Supply in Profit Falls Below 50%

On-chain metrics confirm the psychological strain behind the price move. The share of ETH supply currently in profit has dropped below 50%, meaning more than half of holders are sitting at breakeven or a loss at today’s $2,400–$2,500 levels. When profitable supply collapses like this, behaviour polarizes. Some investors stop selling entirely to avoid crystallizing losses, which can temporarily slow down spot supply. Others, especially those late to the move above $3,000, start cutting positions aggressively whenever price bounces, treating every rally toward their entry as an exit opportunity. For ETH-USD, that translates into heavy overhead resistance above $2,700–$2,800 and a real risk that the market spends time chopping in a wide, stressful range before any durable bottom forms.

ETH-USD Technical Structure: From Mid-$3,000 Rejection to a Broken $2,500–$2,550 Demand Zone

Technically, ETH-USD has lost the clean uptrend it enjoyed earlier. Price was rejected in the $3,200–$3,300 region, just below the falling 100-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming that the attempt to sustain above $3,000 has failed for now. From there, Ethereum slid through the $2,800 pivot and then broke the $2,500–$2,550 demand zone that previously acted as a strong buyer base throughout January. Current structure is defined by a weekend low around $2,238–$2,250, spot trading near $2,400–$2,450, first resistance in the $2,600–$2,700 region, and major resistance at $2,800 and then the 50-day moving average near $3,050. As long as ETH-USD remains trapped below $2,800, the market is structurally weak, and every push higher must still be treated as a potential bear-market rally, not yet a trend reversal.

Bearish Wedge Breakdown on ETH-USD With a 16% Measured Move Target

Price action in ETH-USD has confirmed the break of a medium-term ascending wedge that framed the advance from sub-$2,000 into the $3,200–$3,300 area. That pattern, defined by rising lows and slower new highs, carries a measured-move target of about 16% from the breakdown zone, pointing initially toward roughly $2,465. That target has effectively been met and overshot, with the wick to $2,238–$2,250 taking Ethereum beyond the first downside objective. Some technical roadmaps extend the risk zone further, flagging the $2,100–$2,150 area as a natural next stop if support at the weekend low gives way. A more extreme bearish extension maps to around $1,435 based on deeper historical structures, but such a path would require a fresh wave of macro or flow-driven stress. The key invalidation level for the wedge breakdown remains $2,800; without a sustained close above that level, the wedge damage is still in force.

Momentum and Volatility Profile: ETH-USD Oversold but Still in a Weak Trend

Momentum and volatility indicators tell a story of stress, not yet resolution. On daily frames, RSI in ETH-USD has dipped toward the mid-20s at points, marking deeply oversold conditions, while other live readings hover closer to 40–50 as bounces lift the indicator off extremes. In powerful downtrends, oversold RSI can persist without an immediate reversal, so the signal is not enough to declare a bottom. Average True Range sits around $140–$150, implying a typical daily range of roughly 5–6% of the current Ethereum price. For traders, that means a move of $150–$300 in either direction within one session is entirely realistic. Price is trading firmly beneath both the 50-day moving average (around $3,050) and the 200-day moving average (around the mid-$3,600s), a combination that characterizes a weak trend regime. On volatility bands, recent candles have pierced below lower Bollinger and Keltner bands around $2,770, the kind of action that often produces short reflex rallies but does not, on its own, guarantee a sustainable recovery.

ETF and Derivatives Flow Signals: ETH-USD Hit by Outflows and Cooling Institutional Appetite

Flows in structured products and derivatives reinforce the cautious picture for ETH-USD. Recent sessions have seen Ethereum ETFs report outflows rather than inflows, reducing steady spot demand and signalling that some institutions are taking risk off instead of “buying the dip”. While these flows can flip quickly, the latest prints have skewed negative into a risk-off environment, amplifying every technical break. At the same time, open interest in ETH futures has reset lower after the liquidation wave, confirming that leveraged long positioning has been cleaned up. That is constructive in the long term, but in the short term it means there is less fuel on the long side to drive a sharp, sustained rebound. Until ETF demand stabilizes and futures positioning shows controlled, organic rebuilding of longs, ETH-USD remains vulnerable to further volatility around macro headlines and equity-market risk sentiment.

Cross-Asset Context: ETH-USD Versus BTC-USD and XRP-USD in the Risk-Off Regime

The behaviour of ETH-USD must be viewed alongside BTC-USD and XRP-USD. During the same stress window, Bitcoin slipped under $80,000, with intraday spikes toward $75,000–$76,000, while XRP crashed from levels near $3.65 last July to around $1.70–$1.90, leaving it roughly 50% below its 2025 cycle high. Total crypto capitalization contracted by about $220 billion in a day. ETF flows add another layer: Bitcoin ETFs have printed multi-day outflows in the multi-billion-dollar range, while some XRP ETF products still show modest consecutive inflow streaks and cumulative demand above $1.3 billion since late 2025. This divergence shows a complex rotation inside digital assets, but the headline message remains that broad risk appetite is cooling. As long as BTC-USD struggles to reclaim and hold the $80,000–$85,000 band, it is hard for ETH-USD to stage anything more than tactical bounces.

Key Trading Levels for ETH-USD: $2,238 and $2,100 Support, $2,600–$2,800 Resistance

The immediate map for ETH-USD is defined by a tight set of levels. On the downside, the first critical support is the weekend low around $2,238–$2,250; a daily close below that zone opens a cleaner path toward the $2,100–$2,150 area. On the upside, the first resistance band sits around $2,600–$2,700, where prior support converges with local trendline resistance. A more important line in the sand is $2,800; reclaiming and converting that into support is the minimum requirement to argue that the down-leg has exhausted itself. Above that, bulls must then challenge and break the 50-day moving average near $3,050 to re-establish any credible medium-term uptrend. Until ETH-USD is back inside the $2,800–$3,000 value area with volume backing the move, every spike below that band should still be treated with suspicion.

Positioning and Risk Stance on ETH-USD: Hold Bias, Bearish Near Term, Data-Driven Patience

From a positioning standpoint, the facts around ETH-USD are clear. Price has already fulfilled a first downside objective near $2,450–$2,465 and briefly tagged the $2,238–$2,250 zone. Whales have distributed around 1.1 million ETH, worth roughly $2.8 billion, into the decline. Less than half of supply is in profit, heightening the risk of forced selling if price revisits or breaks below current lows. Technically, Ethereum remains below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and has broken key demand zones at $2,800 and $2,500–$2,550. Under these conditions, chasing an outright Buy on ETH-USD at $2,400–$2,500 is not justified on a strict risk-reward basis, while a fresh Sell call after an 18% weekend flush offers limited additional edge unless macro risk deteriorates further. The data supports a Hold stance with a bearish short-term bias: existing holders can justify staying in with clear risk lines at $2,238 and $2,100, while new capital should either wait for a deeper capitulation into the low-$2,000s or a convincing reclaim of $2,800 with volume before upgrading Ethereum back to an active Buy.

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