Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Rebounds to $111,000 After $19B Liquidation and 100% Tariff Shock

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Battles After a $19 Billion Liquidation as Prices Recoil Around $111,000 Amid Trump’s Tariff Shock

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is facing one of its most turbulent trading weeks of the year as volatility sweeps across the crypto market. Following President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, global investors rushed to unwind risk positions, triggering a deep correction that sent Bitcoin plunging from $117,000 to an intraday low of $104,582. The flash decline resulted in nearly $19 billion worth of liquidations, primarily across overleveraged long positions, marking one of the largest single-day liquidations in digital asset history. By Saturday, the price of Bitcoin managed a fragile recovery to around $111,000, showing a 9% weekly loss and confirming the market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic disruption. The total market capitalization now stands at $2.11 trillion, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $42.1 billion, reflecting both panic-driven turnover and institutional attempts to absorb the selling pressure.

Trump’s 100% Tariff Policy Reignites Global Market Fears and Sends Bitcoin Into Defensive Mode

The policy shift that catalyzed this crash has deep macro implications. President Trump’s 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, expected to take effect on November 1, 2025, came as a retaliation against Beijing’s new restrictions on rare-earth exports—minerals critical to semiconductors and defense technology. Markets reacted immediately, with U.S. equities suffering their worst weekly decline since spring. Bitcoin, historically a hedge against fiat instability, instead tracked equities downward as liquidity rushed out of speculative assets. The sudden fall below $108,000 mirrored risk aversion across global indices, and the ripple effect hit the broader crypto ecosystem, with Ethereum (ETH) dropping 11.4% to $4,016, Solana (SOL) retreating 18% to $188, and XRP (XRP-USD) sliding 17.6% to $2.47. Despite its reputation as digital gold, Bitcoin’s behavior underscored its correlation with macro risk when market stress peaks, particularly during policy shocks that threaten cross-border trade and corporate earnings.

Institutional Flows Continue Despite the Panic as ETF Holdings Reach Record Highs

Behind the short-term panic, long-term accumulation trends remain unshaken. According to data from ARK Invest’s Q3 2025 Bitcoin Quarterly, institutional ownership through ETFs and digital asset treasuries has expanded to unprecedented levels. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now collectively hold 1.3 million BTC, equivalent to 6.6% of total supply, while public-company treasuries hold roughly 1.1 million BTC, or 5.6% of circulating supply. Combined, institutional vehicles now control over 12.2% of all Bitcoin, creating a liquidity crunch that amplifies volatility during selloffs but also reinforces structural scarcity. ARK’s report highlights that 94.5% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply remains in profit, even after the correction—an unusually strong on-chain metric signaling that most holders are not under water. Mining activity remains robust, with network difficulty climbing 21.7% in Q3 and 61% year-over-year to reach a record 611 EH/s, confirming the highest security baseline in the network’s history. Miner revenue, now averaging $52.4 million per day, reflects both profitability recovery since the last halving and continued institutional demand for block space.

On-Chain Metrics Reveal Accumulation as Supply Becomes Increasingly Illiquid

While short-term traders unwind, long-term holders appear to be using the dip as an opportunity to accumulate. The amount of illiquid supply—BTC that has not moved for extended periods—rose to 14.3 million BTC, up 4.6% year-over-year, signaling growing conviction among holders. Transaction activity remains firm, averaging 103,600 BTC per day, while active entities increased 6.1% compared to 2024. This resilience in usage despite volatility points to a maturing market structure where speculative leverage drives short-term pain, but organic demand underpins long-term stability. Funding rates, which had turned negative earlier in the week, are now normalizing around 2.1%, and the three-month futures basis has eased to 7.6%, well below the 17% peaks observed during the 2021 bubble. The data paints a picture of a market resetting rather than collapsing, with leverage clearing out while genuine accumulation quietly continues underneath the surface.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Easing Inflation and Shifting Fed Policy Support Bitcoin’s Longer-Term Outlook

The macro backdrop that triggered this volatility may ironically turn into a long-term tailwind. Inflation indicators are showing clear signs of moderation, with Truflation’s CPI trending below 3% year-over-year, while labor data continues to weaken. The U.S. labor differential has turned negative for the first time since 2020, and the quits rate dropped to 1.9%, suggesting a softer job market that could push the Federal Reserve toward a more accommodative stance. ARK’s economists argue that this combination of fading inflation and slowing employment sets the stage for policy easing in early 2026, a historically bullish environment for Bitcoin. Moreover, structural tax incentives from the “One Big Beautiful Bill” have spurred renewed capital investment in software and R&D, improving productivity and expanding GDP potential—conditions that tend to coincide with bullish crypto cycles as liquidity flows back into risk assets.

Technical Outlook: $108,000 Remains the Line in the Sand for Bitcoin Bulls

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is consolidating within a critical support zone. The $108,000–$110,000 range aligns with the 200-day moving average and historical on-chain cost basis at $104,772. As of Sunday, BTC/USD trades at $111,691, while the RSI at 40.6 reflects near-oversold momentum, signaling the potential for a rebound. The next resistance stands at $117,000, followed by a breakout target between $124,000–$126,000 if momentum returns. Should Bitcoin fail to hold above $108,000, analysts project a deeper retracement toward $103,000 or even $98,200, consistent with the 50% Fibonacci retracement from June’s rally. Traders are increasingly treating the $108,000 level as a key accumulation zone, with major institutional desks reportedly layering buy orders below that mark to capture discounted exposure.

Historical Cycles and Future Projections Point Toward $150,000–$160,000 Range by Late 2025

Bitcoin’s price structure still aligns with its post-halving rhythm. With approximately 18 months since the last halving, the cycle is entering what historically becomes the mid-to-late-stage expansion phase. Analysts from Cryptopolitan and Standard Chartered maintain that the upper band of this cycle could drive BTC toward $150,000–$160,000 before year-end, assuming ETF inflows and macro easing persist. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest reiterated her long-term projection of $600,000 by 2030, with a bull-case scenario reaching $1.5 million if institutional allocation continues accelerating. The forecasted supply density at 30%, the highest since 2020, suggests a tightly clustered ownership structure—a condition that often precedes explosive upside once market sentiment reverses.

Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER) Emerges as the Layer-2 Catalyst in Bitcoin’s Expanding Ecosystem

Parallel to Bitcoin’s price drama, new innovations are building around its ecosystem. Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), the first Bitcoin-native Layer-2 powered by the Solana Virtual Machine, is introducing high-speed, low-cost smart contract functionality while leveraging Bitcoin’s security model. The project’s presale has already exceeded $23 million, with tokens priced at $0.013095 in the current round. Investors see HYPER as a critical infrastructure upgrade that could bridge Bitcoin with the wider DeFi ecosystem, allowing developers to deploy decentralized apps directly anchored to BTC’s chain. The audited code and fast adoption trajectory have made it one of the fastest-selling presales of Q4 2025, reflecting investor appetite for scalability solutions that strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term use case beyond store-of-value narratives.

Market Outlook and Verdict: Structural Strength, Tactical Volatility

Despite the week’s shock events, Bitcoin’s structural health remains exceptionally strong. Network fundamentals, institutional ownership, and macro liquidity trends all suggest that the current turbulence is a consolidation phase rather than the end of the cycle. While volatility will persist through the next Federal Reserve meeting and geopolitical tensions could add temporary pressure, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain aligned with a broader upward trajectory.

Verdict:
Bitcoin (BTC-USD): Buy on Major Dips – Support $108,000 / Resistance $126,000 – Target Range $150,000 by Year-End
Bias: Bullish (Macro Accumulation Phase)