Bitcoin Price Holds Near $118K as Traders Eye Fed, ETF Flows, and Whale Activity
BTC-USD Steadies Below $118,300 as Macro Shifts, ETF Demand, and Whale Accumulation Set the Stage for Breakout or Breakdown | That's TradingNEWS
Bitcoin Price Holds Near $118K as Traders Eye Fed, ETF Flows, and Whale Activity
BTC-USD Flatlines Ahead of Major Macro and Crypto Reports
ETF Demand Steadies as Spot BTC Nears $118K
Bitcoin traded at $117,972.40 on July 28, consolidating just below its 5-day high of $118,299.21, with a mild 0.68% decline across the week. Despite volatility, ETF inflows remained resilient. BlackRock's IBIT saw $410M in weekly additions, while Fidelity’s FBTC netted $190M, pushing cumulative spot ETF holdings above 861,000 BTC. The steady institutional buying helped defend the key $115K support during midweek weakness.
Whale Accumulation and Supply Illiquidity Suggest Strong Hands in Control
On-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates that whales (wallets holding 1,000+ BTC) added +8,600 BTC this week, the sharpest 5-day gain since April. Long-term holder supply hit a new all-time high of 15.48M BTC, while exchange balances declined by 21,300 BTC. These movements signal growing conviction, as large holders prepare for a breakout amid declining sell-side pressure.
Fed Outlook and Macro Data Key to Next Breakout Attempt
Markets are pricing in a 72% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, driven by weakening job openings and disinflation signals. The DXY fell below 102.20, its lowest in over 90 days, while PCE inflation cooled to 2.6%, keeping real yields below 1.5%. Bitcoin’s strong inverse correlation to real yields remains intact, setting the stage for macro tailwinds into August.
Derivatives Show Balanced Leverage but Upside Skew Building
Bitcoin futures open interest held steady above $22.8B, with CME showing a tilt toward long exposure. Meanwhile, funding rates across Bybit and Binance turned marginally positive — signaling cautious optimism. Options traders are pricing in a 6.2% move over the next week, with implied volatility rising modestly to 56%, suggesting traders anticipate a potential directional breakout around $120,000.
Technical Picture: BTC Coils Under $118K Resistance
BTC-USD continues to form a tight consolidation band between $114,500 and $118,300, testing the upper edge repeatedly. A confirmed break above $118,300 would open the door to $122,700, based on the measured move from the recent ascending triangle. Support remains at $115,000, with the 50-day EMA at $116,800 offering intraday defense. RSI is neutral at 54, but MACD is trending upward.
Catalysts Ahead: Crypto Reports, ETF Approval Rumors, and Miner Capitulation
With the Fed decision, crypto regulatory briefings, and post-halving miner metrics due next week, traders are bracing for volatility. Puell Multiple has dropped to 0.68, historically linked with late-stage miner exhaustion and BTC bottoms. Additionally, speculation around a new ETF approval window by mid-August is drawing retail and institutional interest back toward bullish setups.
Verdict: HOLD BTC-USD — Await Confirmed Break Above $118,300
Bitcoin’s price action remains constructive above $115K, with ETF flows, whale accumulation, and macro easing forming a strong base. A close above $118,300 would validate upside toward $122K–$124K. Until then, risk/reward favors patience, with downside protected but no trigger yet confirmed.
