Brent ($115.30) Retakes $115 as US Crude Stocks Drop to 410.6M Barrels Before the Midterms — Path to $120

December Brent crude traded at $115.30 a barrel on Wednesday, up $1.42 or 1.25% from Tuesday’s settlement of $113.88, and December West Texas Intermediate traded at $101.79, up $1.89 or 1.89% from $99.90. The rally recovered most of Tuesday’s slide of nearly $2, when regional talks involving Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani representatives briefly eased fears of a wider Middle East war. Brent touched $115.90 in early European trading, up 1.8%, before settling into a band between $115.00 and $115.60.

Two catalysts drove the rebound. The first was geopolitical: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Tuesday they had struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom’s largest at 550,000 barrels a day, with a ballistic missile. Saudi authorities have not confirmed any damage. The second was fundamental: the Energy Information Administration reported a 1.892 million-barrel draw in US commercial crude inventories for the week ended October 23, against expectations for a 15,000-barrel build, taking stockpiles to 410.6 million barrels, 4% below the five-year average.

The single most important date for oil is not this week’s Fed meeting. It is November 3, the US midterm elections. Reports on Wednesday said Washington has told Gulf states to prepare for renewed strikes against Iran after the vote, and President Trump said on Tuesday that the war would end on his terms and that Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon. Traders are treating November 3 as the date the risk premium either expands sharply or collapses on a negotiated settlement.

The price structure reflects that binary. Brent has risen 19.90% over the past month and 79.26% over the past year. WTI is up 13.88% on the month and 68.30% on the year. Brent sits near its highest levels since mid-2022, and well below the all-time high of $147.50 set in July 2008. The Brent-WTI spread stands at $13.51, a wide gap that reflects Middle East supply risk concentrated in the international benchmark.

The forecast through the November 1 OPEC+ meeting and the November 3 election is a headline-driven range. The base case is Brent between $112 and $118 and WTI between $98 and $104. Confirmed damage at Ras Tanura or a US strike on Iran opens $120 Brent, 4.1% higher. A credible ceasefire proposal sends Brent back to $108, 6.3% lower. US inventories that are 4% below the five-year average on crude and 10% below on distillates provide a floor under any diplomatic sell-off.

A Three-Day Round Trip: Above $117 Monday, Down $2 Tuesday, Back to $115

Oil’s price action this week shows how much of the market is headline-driven. On Monday, Brent rallied above $117 a barrel before reversing, closing the day well below its high in a round trip that left traders whipsawed. On Tuesday, the first day of the Fed meeting, Brent fell nearly $2 to settle at $113.88 and WTI dropped to $99.90, its first close below $100 in more than a week, as diplomatic efforts in the region gained momentum.

The diplomacy that drove Tuesday’s decline was real but fragile. Iran’s Security Council chief, Mohsen Rezaei, met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Tuesday, a day after talks with Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani representatives. Qatar and Pakistan have been mediating between the Trump administration and Tehran. Those efforts temporarily capped Brent’s upside near $115.

Wednesday’s Asian session erased most of that move on a single claim. By 01:40 GMT, Brent had climbed $1.48, or 1.3%, to $115.36. By the early European session it had reached $115.59 and WTI $101.37. At 3:35 a.m. ET, Brent traded at $115.90, up 1.8%, and WTI at $101.91, up 2.0%. By 08:58 GMT, Brent was at $115.24, up 1.2%, and WTI at $101.52, up 1.6%.

The US session added a second driver. The EIA’s 10:30 a.m. ET inventory report confirmed a crude draw for the third straight week and a sharper-than-expected decline in distillate stocks, even as gasoline inventories built. By the late morning, WTI traded at $101.79 and Brent at $115.30, holding most of the overnight gains.

The pattern explains the forecast. Brent has swung between $113.88 and $117-plus in three sessions, a range of roughly $3.50, or 3%, driven almost entirely by headlines from the Gulf rather than changes in physical supply. That volatility is likely to persist until the November 3 election resolves the central question for the market: whether the war with Iran escalates again or moves toward a settlement.

Conflicting reports on Wednesday about a new proposal to end the US-Iran conflict kept the tape choppy into the US session. Each report of progress knocks $1 to $2 off Brent within minutes; each claim of an attack adds it back. Until one of those narratives wins, traders are selling rallies above $116 and buying dips toward $113.

Ras Tanura’s 550,000 Barrels a Day: A Claim, Not Yet a Supply Loss

The Houthi claim targets the most important refining asset in Saudi Arabia. Ras Tanura processes 550,000 barrels a day, the kingdom’s largest refinery, and sits alongside the country’s biggest crude export terminal on the Gulf coast. Any confirmed damage would hit both Saudi fuel supply and, potentially, crude export logistics.

As of Wednesday morning, the attack remained a claim. Saudi authorities had not confirmed the incident or any damage, and there was no report of reduced throughput or loadings. The market added roughly $1.50 to Brent on the claim alone, which shows how little it takes to lift prices when the risk premium is already elevated.

Saudi energy infrastructure has been a repeated target this year. In March, during the first weeks of the war with Iran, drones struck the 400,000-barrel-a-day Samref refinery at the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and Brent jumped above $119 intraday. In early September, Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities injured 73 civilians and pushed Brent to $99.22, its highest since July at the time. A refinery near Abha was hit on September 8. Each incident added a few dollars that partially faded once damage assessments came in.

The difference now is the starting level. In March, Brent was climbing from below $80. In September, it was near $95. On Wednesday, the claim landed with Brent already above $113, so a confirmed outage at Ras Tanura would push prices into territory last seen in the spring, when dated Brent rose past $140 and futures tested four-year highs.

The market’s reaction function is clear. Unconfirmed claims add $1 to $2 and fade within days unless damage is verified. Confirmed damage at a facility the size of Ras Tanura would likely add $5 or more, because it would remove refined product supply at a time when global distillate stocks are already tight and US distillate inventories sit 10% below their five-year average.

The key watch item is any Saudi statement confirming or denying damage. A denial would likely knock Brent back toward $113 to $114, close to Tuesday’s settlement. Confirmation would put $120 within reach before the weekend.

November 3 Is the Market’s Risk-Premium Marker

The election calendar dominates every oil conversation this week. The war between the US and Iran started roughly eight months ago, and Wednesday’s reports that Washington has told Gulf countries to prepare for renewed strikes after the November 3 midterm elections have reset expectations. Traders now see the vote as the moment the conflict either escalates or turns toward a deal.

President Trump’s comments framed both paths. Speaking at a campaign rally in Texas on Tuesday, he said the conflict could be brought to a swift conclusion but stressed that any agreement must ensure Iran never possesses a nuclear weapon. That language keeps a negotiated outcome on the table while signaling that military pressure will continue if talks fail.

Diplomatic efforts are running in parallel. Qatar and Pakistan are mediating between the Trump administration and Tehran. Iran’s Security Council chief met the Supreme Leader on Tuesday after talks with regional representatives. Wednesday brought conflicting reports about a new proposal to end the conflict, which kept prices choppy into the US session.

Israel adds another variable. Markets are monitoring Israeli election results, which could change the trajectory of the conflict depending on the composition of the next government. A government more inclined to strike Iran, combined with a US push after November 3, would be the most bullish combination for crude.

The timing creates a specific trading pattern. Between now and November 3, the market is likely to hold a premium built on the probability of renewed strikes. Long positions are being carried into the vote as insurance against escalation. If the election passes and the administration pivots to a deal, that insurance premium could come out quickly, which is why the bear case targets $108 rather than a gradual decline.

The upside risk is larger in dollar terms. A renewed US campaign against Iran, especially one that triggered retaliation against Gulf energy facilities or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, would put Brent back near the spring highs. Dated Brent passed $140 at the height of the conflict earlier this year, the highest since 2008. Futures at $115.30 sit $24.70 below that physical-market peak, and $32.20 below the 2008 record of $147.50.

More Than 30 Hormuz Incidents in October, Up From 14 in September

The Strait of Hormuz remains the most important chokepoint in the market, and it has become more dangerous this month. October has seen the most acute escalation in maritime attacks since the war started, with more than 30 incidents recorded in the strait and surrounding waterways, up from 14 in September. That doubling in incident count has raised insurance and freight costs for every tanker moving through the Gulf.

The physical flows matter more than the headlines. Roughly a fifth of global oil consumption normally passes through Hormuz. Every incident that delays a tanker, forces a reroute or lifts war-risk insurance premiums adds to the delivered cost of Gulf crude, which feeds directly into Brent and Middle East benchmarks. The surge in incidents is a large part of why Brent trades $13.51 above WTI.

Iran has used the strait as leverage throughout the war. Earlier in the conflict, Iran renewed attacks on the United Arab Emirates and partially halted oil loading at the port of Fujairah after the third attack in four days. In April, reports that Iran was working with Oman on a protocol to monitor traffic through Hormuz briefly knocked Brent off its highs. The strait has been the variable that moves prices most, and October’s rise in incidents shows it is not stabilizing.

The Saudi-Houthi front is gaining its own momentum alongside Hormuz. The Houthi campaign against Saudi energy infrastructure has become self-sustaining, separate from the direct US-Iran conflict. That creates a second source of supply risk that would persist even if Washington and Tehran reached a deal, which limits how far a diplomatic breakthrough could push prices down.

Shipping patterns are shifting in response. Venezuelan dark-fleet tankers have been moving toward the Gulf, suggesting that some sanctioned barrels are being repositioned to fill gaps or exploit elevated prices in the region. That flow adds marginal supply but also reflects how tight the market has become for prompt barrels.

The Middle East benchmark moved differently on Wednesday. Murban crude, the UAE grade, traded at $114.70, down 2.52%, even as Brent and WTI rose. That divergence suggests regional supply of Gulf crude remains adequate for now, and the Brent rally reflects risk premium on future disruptions rather than an immediate physical shortage in the Gulf.

EIA Shows a 1.892M-Barrel Crude Draw Against a 15,000-Barrel Build Forecast

The US inventory data gave the bulls a fundamental argument to go with the geopolitical one. The EIA reported that commercial crude inventories fell 1.892 million barrels in the week ended October 23, against expectations for a 15,000-barrel build. That brought stockpiles to 410.6 million barrels, now 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.

The draw confirmed the private data. The American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that crude stocks fell 2.031 million barrels, against an expected 800,000-barrel build. That was the API’s third straight weekly draw after declines of 4.93 million barrels and 11.12 million barrels in the two prior weeks.

The trend in official data is just as clear. The EIA reported a 3.06 million-barrel draw in the week ended October 16, taking stocks to 412.5 million barrels, against an 820,000-barrel draw expected. The week before, crude fell 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million. Over three weeks, US commercial crude inventories have dropped 13.55 million barrels, and the stock level has moved from 1% above the five-year average in early October to 4% below.

Refinery demand is the main driver. US refineries processed 16.6 million barrels a day in the week ended October 16, operating at 93.4% of capacity. Strong runs during a period when refiners typically cut back for maintenance show that margins remain attractive enough to keep crude flowing into plants at a high rate.

Imports have not filled the gap. Crude imports fell 291,000 barrels a day to 5.8 million barrels a day in the week ended October 16, although the four-week average of 6.1 million barrels a day ran 2.8% above the year-ago level. With Gulf shipping disrupted and Brent priced at a $13.51 premium to WTI, US refiners are leaning more on domestic crude, which draws down inventories faster.

The inventory position limits the downside in a diplomatic scenario. Even if a settlement removed the war premium, US crude stocks at 410.6 million barrels, 4% below normal, would support WTI around the high $90s. The fundamental floor under WTI is higher than it was in September, when inventories still ran 1% to 2% above average.

Gasoline Built 3.87M Barrels While Distillates Drew 1.46M

The product data were mixed, and that kept the inventory report from being an outright bullish surprise. Gasoline inventories rose 3.870 million barrels in the week ended October 23, against expectations for a 942,000-barrel draw. The API had reported a 2.39 million-barrel build. The EIA increase exceeded the private estimate, which tempered the crude draw’s impact on prices.

Gasoline demand is softening. Average daily gasoline production fell to 9.2 million barrels, and gasoline demand averaged 8.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks. The week before, the four-week average stood at 8.7 million barrels a day, up 1.5% from a year earlier. With gasoline prices elevated by the war, US drivers are cutting back at the margin, and the seasonal shift away from summer driving adds to the softening.

Distillates told a different story. Distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, fell 1.462 million barrels, against an expected 858,000-barrel draw. The API had reported a 380,000-barrel build, so the official figures surprised in the bullish direction. Distillate stocks now sit 10% below their five-year average, after starting the week 9% below.

Distillate production fell to an average of 5.2 million barrels a day. Four-week distillate supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels a day, down 0.6% from a year earlier, a sign that diesel demand is not growing even as supply tightens. That combination of low stocks and flat demand points to a supply problem rather than a demand boom.

The distillate shortage is where the Ras Tanura claim matters most. Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery produces large volumes of diesel and jet fuel, a significant share of which supplies export markets. Any outage there would hit global distillate supply at a time when US stocks are 10% below normal and heating season is starting in the Northern Hemisphere. Diesel cracks, the margin refiners earn on distillates, would widen sharply.

The gasoline build is the bears’ best argument in the data. Rising gasoline stocks and softening demand suggest that high prices are starting to destroy consumption. If that spreads to distillates, the fundamental support under crude would weaken. For now, the distillate draw outweighs the gasoline build, and the overall petroleum balance remains tight.

Cushing Swung to a 624,000-Barrel Draw as the SPR Sits at 1982 Lows

Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI futures contract, fell 624,000 barrels in the week ended October 23, after rising 987,000 barrels the prior week. The API had reported a 453,000-barrel Cushing draw. A swing from a build to a draw at the hub is a constructive signal for the front of the WTI curve.

Cushing matters out of proportion to its size because it determines physical availability for WTI delivery. Draws at the hub tighten prompt supply, and sustained draws have historically shown up first in the front-month spread, pushing the curve toward steeper backwardation, where near-dated contracts trade above later ones. A single week’s draw is noisy, but combined with three weeks of national crude draws, it adds to the case that US physical supply is tightening.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve offers little cushion. The SPR released 100,000 barrels in the week ended October 23 to support commercial inventories, bringing its total to 282.6 million barrels. That is the lowest level since October 1982 and roughly 40% of the reserve’s 714 million-barrel capacity, leaving it 431 million barrels short of maximum.

That level constrains Washington’s options. Earlier in the war, SPR releases helped widen WTI’s discount to Brent to its largest in 11 years, as US barrels flooded the domestic market. With the reserve at 282.6 million barrels, a large new release to offset a spike after November 3 would drain it toward levels not seen since the early years of the program. The government can still release barrels, but the political and strategic cost of doing so rises with every drawdown.

The combination of falling commercial stocks, a Cushing draw and a depleted SPR means the US has less buffer against a supply shock than at any point in four decades. That is the structural reason the bear case for WTI stops near $98 rather than falling back toward the $80s. Even a peace deal would not quickly rebuild inventories that have been drawn down for weeks.

The weekly pattern bears watching through November. Three more weeks of crude draws would take commercial inventories toward 405 million barrels and widen the deficit to the five-year average toward 6%, a level that historically supports a firmer WTI curve regardless of geopolitics.

The $13.51 Brent-WTI Spread Prices the Middle East Premium

The gap between the two benchmarks is the clearest measure of where the risk sits. Brent at $115.30 and WTI at $101.79 leave a spread of $13.51 a barrel. In normal markets, the spread runs between $3 and $6, reflecting transport costs from the US Gulf Coast to Europe. A spread above $13 shows that the premium is concentrated in seaborne crude exposed to Middle East disruption.

The spread has been wide for most of the war. Earlier this year, WTI traded at its widest discount to Brent in 11 years, as US strategic reserve releases and higher freight costs suppressed domestic prices while attacks on Gulf facilities lifted international ones. On one day in March, Brent jumped 6.9% to $114.77 while WTI rose just 0.3% to $96.59.

Wednesday’s move narrowed the spread slightly. WTI rose 1.89%, outpacing Brent’s 1.25% gain, because the US inventory draw supported the domestic benchmark while the Ras Tanura claim lifted Brent. That narrowing suggests the domestic fundamentals are catching up with the international risk premium.

The spread creates trading flows. At $13.51, US crude exports become highly profitable, which pulls barrels out of US storage and onto ships bound for Europe and Asia. That export pull is part of why US inventories have drawn for three weeks. A wide spread is self-correcting over time: it drains US stocks, which lifts WTI and narrows the gap.

The forecast for the spread depends on the November 3 outcome. A renewed US campaign against Iran would widen it again, likely toward $15 or more, because Brent would absorb the direct supply risk while WTI benefited only indirectly. A settlement would narrow it toward $10 as the Middle East premium came out of Brent faster than domestic tightness came out of WTI.

For traders, the spread is a cleaner expression of the geopolitical view than outright price. Long Brent and short WTI captures escalation risk while hedging against broader demand weakness. Short the spread captures a diplomatic settlement while keeping exposure to the tightening US balance. Both positions are active in the market this week, which explains part of the intraday chop between the two contracts.

OPEC+ Meets Sunday With Members Already Below Target

The producer group’s response is a secondary but important input this week. OPEC+ meets on Sunday, November 1, and is expected to keep its December output targets steady. Most core members are already producing below their targets, which limits how much additional supply the group could deliver even if it wanted to.

The constraint is physical rather than political. War-related disruptions to Gulf production and shipping mean several core members cannot reach their quotas regardless of what the group decides. Earlier in the conflict, OPEC+ considered a potential output increase, but any additional supply was unlikely to reach the market quickly given the shipping disruptions in the Gulf.

That leaves the market without a release valve. In previous price spikes, OPEC+ spare capacity, concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, acted as a buffer. With Saudi infrastructure under attack and Gulf export routes disrupted, that spare capacity is harder to deploy. A hold on Sunday would confirm the group has limited ability to cap prices.

Russia adds a variable on the supply side. Potential changes in Russian oil shipments are part of the market’s supply assessment, with refinery activity in Russia possibly limiting crude exports. Any further reduction in Russian seaborne crude would tighten the market at the margin, particularly for European buyers who rely on Brent-linked grades.

The OPEC+ meeting lands two days before the US election. A hold is the base case and largely priced. A surprise increase would be a bearish signal that could knock $2 to $3 off Brent, but it would carry little credibility given that most members are already below target. A surprise cut, aimed at defending prices in case of a post-election settlement, would add to the upside but is unlikely while prices sit above $115.

The meeting matters more for its messaging than its numbers. Any comment from Saudi Arabia on Ras Tanura, or on its willingness to raise output if the war ends, would shape how traders position for the November 3 outcome.

The Fed, a 5.01% 10-Year and the Inflation Feedback Loop

Oil is now a central input into monetary policy, which creates a feedback loop. The Federal Reserve announces its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, with a 92.8% probability of a hold at 3.75% to 4.00% and an 84.4% probability of a December hike. Higher oil prices are a key reason the Fed hiked in September and is expected to hike again.

The inflation link is direct. September US consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, above forecast, with energy a major driver. Eurozone inflation hit 3.8% in September, a three-year high, also on energy. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on Wednesday, citing concern that higher oil prices are bleeding into broader inflation.

Tighter policy pushes back on oil demand. Higher interest rates slow growth, which eventually reduces fuel consumption. The 10-year Treasury yield at 5.01% and a dollar index at 102.42 both weigh on commodities priced in dollars. A stronger dollar raises the cost of crude for non-US buyers, which tempers demand in Europe and Asia.

There are early signs of demand pressure. US gasoline demand averaged 8.6 million barrels a day over four weeks, softer than the 8.7 million recorded the week before. Distillate supplied fell 0.6% year over year. Total product supplied had been running 3.2% above a year earlier, but the latest gasoline build suggests consumers are starting to cut back.

The macro feedback works against the bulls over a longer horizon. If the Fed hikes in December and again in 2027, as futures price, the resulting slowdown would reduce oil demand into next year. That is a slow-moving force that does not offset a supply shock in the near term, but it limits how long prices can stay above $115 without destroying demand.

The Fed decision affects oil indirectly this week. A hawkish Warsh that lifts the dollar and yields would add modest pressure on crude. A dovish tilt would support risk assets and commodities. Either effect is small compared with the geopolitical driver, but it sets the tone for Thursday’s trading after the US PCE inflation report at 8:30 a.m. ET, which will show how much of the energy shock is passing through to consumer prices.

The Technical Map: $113.88 Below, $117 and $120 Above for Brent

Both benchmarks are in established uptrends. WTI’s average directional index stands at 31.1 and rising, with the positive directional indicator at 31.4 well above the negative indicator at 13.6, a mature uptrend. Brent’s ADX crossed above 25 on October 27 and stands at 26.0, with the positive indicator at 26.4 against 10.6 for the negative, confirming a trend that strengthened this week. Energy and precious metals are trending in opposite directions, with oil in positive-indicator-led uptrends and gold and silver in negative-indicator-led downtrends.

For Brent, immediate support is Tuesday’s settlement at $113.88. Below that, $111.75 marks the level reached following earlier tanker attacks, and $108 is the bear target that a diplomatic settlement would bring into play. The $105 zone, where Brent traded before the October escalation, sits below that.

Brent resistance begins at Wednesday’s intraday high of $115.90 and the $116 area. Monday’s peak above $117 marks the next level, and the round $120 number is the upside target on confirmed escalation. Above that, the spring highs near four-year peaks come into view.

For WTI, support starts at $99.90, Tuesday’s close, and the $100 handle just above it. A close back below $100 would signal that Wednesday’s rebound has failed. Below that, $98 is the bear target. Resistance sits at Wednesday’s high near $101.91 to $102.11, followed by $104 and the $105 zone.

The monthly gains frame how stretched the move is. Brent is up 19.90% over the past month and WTI 13.88%. On a year-over-year basis, Brent is up 79.26%, around $52 a barrel above its level a year ago. Brent traded near $66 in early February, before the war began, so the current price embeds roughly $49 of premium and tightening since then.

The distances favor balanced risk in the near term. From $115.30, the downside to $113.88 is $1.42, or 1.2%, and to $108 is $7.30, or 6.3%. The upside to $117 is $1.70, or 1.5%, and to $120 is $4.70, or 4.1%. The trend indicators favor the upside, but the size of the potential downside on a settlement is larger than the upside on escalation.

Oil Price Forecast: $112–$118 Brent Into November 3, $120 on Escalation

The oil forecast this week rests on two dates and one claim. The dates are Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting and the November 3 US midterm elections, after which Washington has reportedly told Gulf states to prepare for renewed strikes on Iran. The claim is the Houthi strike on Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s 550,000-barrel-a-day refinery, which remains unconfirmed.

The base case is a range of $112 to $118 for Brent and $98 to $104 for WTI through the election. Claims and interceptions continue, talks proceed without a deal, OPEC+ holds December output steady, and Brent trades headlines through the Fed, Thursday’s PCE inflation report and the weekend meeting. US crude inventories at 410.6 million barrels, 4% below the five-year average, and distillates 10% below keep a floor under prices.

The bullish case targets $120 Brent and $105 WTI. It requires Saudi confirmation of damage at Ras Tanura, a renewed US campaign against Iran after November 3, a post-election Israeli government that moves against Tehran, or a further rise in Hormuz incidents beyond October’s 30-plus. Each of those would add to a risk premium that already accounts for a $13.51 Brent-WTI spread. With the SPR at 282.6 million barrels, its lowest since 1982, Washington has less capacity to cap a spike.

The bearish case targets $108 Brent and $98 WTI. It requires Saudi denial of damage at Ras Tanura, a credible US-Iran settlement proposal emerging from the Qatar and Pakistan mediation, and confirmation that higher prices are destroying demand, as the 3.87 million-barrel gasoline build hinted. A settlement would remove the insurance premium traders are carrying into the vote, and it would likely come out quickly.

The verdict is bullish with high event risk. The trend indicators, three weeks of US crude draws, a 10% distillate deficit, a depleted SPR and an OPEC+ group producing below target all support prices, while October’s doubling of Hormuz incidents shows the conflict is escalating rather than cooling. Brent at $115.30 and WTI at $101.79 are buys on dips toward $113.88 and $100 respectively into November 3, with $120 Brent as the upside target on escalation, and a daily close below $108 Brent or $98 WTI as the signal that a settlement has taken the war premium out of the market.

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