XRP-USD ($1.317) Stuck Below Its $1.3346 Midpoint as RLUSD Shifts to Ethereum — Range Holds Above $1.25

XRP traded at $1.317 at 12:15 UTC on Wednesday, up 1.65% over 24 hours, after an early-session push to $1.34 faded as Bitcoin stalled under $81,500 ahead of the Federal Reserve. The 24-hour range on major venues ran from $1.31 to $1.34, a band of 3 cents, and the USDT pair traded at $1.3184 on the same exchange. At $1.317, XRP’s market capitalization stands at $83.47 billion on a circulating supply of 63.35 billion tokens, with 24-hour volume of $1.64 billion.

The tape captures XRP’s problem in one session. Ripple, the company, has had its best week of the year. It won final approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for Ripple National Trust Bank on October 26, opened its Swell conference in New York on October 27, and is preparing to roll its RLUSD stablecoin out on Robinhood’s app by year-end. XRP, the token, has gone nowhere. It is down 13.25% over the past month, roughly 50% over the past year, and 64% below its all-time high of $3.6618.

The disconnect is structural. Ripple’s trust charter and RLUSD distribution do not require anyone to buy XRP. Each RLUSD transfer on the XRP Ledger pays a tiny XRP fee, which means stablecoin growth does little for token demand. RLUSD’s share on the XRP Ledger has fallen from 49% to 39% this month, as more of the stablecoin’s growth migrates to Ethereum.

The flow data confirm weak demand. US spot XRP ETFs held 1.19 billion XRP as of October 26, but their combined assets fell from $1.77 billion on September 25 to $1.48 billion on October 23, and daily ETF trading volume collapsed from $102 million on October 2 to $18.8 million on October 23. Tokens held on publicly attributed exchange wallets rose from 20.30 billion XRP on October 3 to 22.61 billion on October 24, adding 2.31 billion tokens to the visible sell-side float.

The forecast hinges on two levels. Support at $1.25 has held through every October dip and marks the floor of the post-August consolidation. Resistance at $1.3346, the daily Bollinger midpoint, and the $1.33 to $1.37 band of exponential moving averages above it, has capped every rally. A daily close above $1.40 opens $1.50. A break below $1.25 exposes $0.98, the August low.

Tuesday Closed at $1.32994, Just 4 Hundredths of a Cent Above Resistance

XRP entered Wednesday on a technically constructive but thin close. The token finished Tuesday’s UTC session at $1.32994, up 1.78%, after reaching $1.33287. That close confirmed a move above the $1.31383 resistance level and finished just $0.00004 above the upper edge of the next resistance band between $1.32950 and $1.32990, leaving almost no margin for treating that zone as recovered.

The close also sat just below the falling daily Bollinger midpoint at $1.33456. The midpoint declined from $1.33911 the prior day, and the upper and lower bands stood at $1.40901 and $1.26012. A close below a falling midpoint is a sign that the daily trend has not yet turned, even when the session itself is positive.

Shorter timeframes looked stronger. The latest completed four-hour candle on Tuesday night closed above its upper band at $1.32572, an upside expansion on the four-hour chart. Early Wednesday, XRP traded at $1.32 at 3:29 a.m. ET, up 1.99% over 24 hours, and then pushed to $1.34, up 3.01%, on aggregate volume of $1.53 billion. That move put the token briefly above the daily midpoint in an unfinished session.

The European and early US hours erased it. By 12:15 UTC, XRP had slipped back to $1.317, and other venues quoted $1.31, down 0.33% on the day. The 3-cent fade from $1.34 to $1.31 shows sellers waiting above $1.33, where the daily midpoint and the short-term moving averages cluster.

The pattern is familiar from October. XRP has repeatedly pushed into the $1.33 to $1.37 zone and failed, setting lower highs while holding above $1.25. Each attempt has drawn supply from holders who bought in the $1.40 to $1.66 range in September and want out closer to breakeven.

The rest of Wednesday depends on Bitcoin. The broader crypto market squeezed shorts over the past 24 hours, with $51.51 million of Bitcoin shorts liquidated against $4.60 million of longs, and XRP followed that move. If Bitcoin breaks above its $81,500 ETF cost basis after the Fed, XRP has room to retest $1.34 and the daily midpoint. If Bitcoin fails, XRP is likely to drift back toward $1.29 to $1.30.

Down 13.25% in October, 50% in a Year, 64% From the Record

The longer context explains why every rally meets selling. XRP surged after dipping to $0.97 by mid-August, gaining 72% in four days to $1.70 before losing momentum. It reached roughly $1.66 in late September before sellers took control, and it has since fallen from the $1.50 area to lows near $1.25 in October. At $1.317, XRP is down 13.25% over the past month and down 11% on a 30-day basis by other measures.

The yearly picture is worse. XRP closed 2025 at $1.84 and has fallen 28.3% since. Over 12 months, it is down roughly 50%. The all-time high of $3.6618 sits $2.34 above the current price, a 64% drawdown. A holder who bought at the record needs a 178% rally to break even.

The August-to-September run is the critical reference. The 72% surge from $0.97 to $1.70 created a large pool of buyers between $1.40 and $1.70, many of whom are now underwater. Those holders form the supply that has capped every October rally near $1.33 to $1.37. Until that supply clears, either through time or a decisive break higher, the token is likely to stay range-bound.

October’s decline has been orderly rather than violent. XRP has not broken its $1.25 floor despite a month of lower highs, and the Bollinger Bands have narrowed, with the lower band at $1.26012 and the upper at $1.40901. That compression, a band width of 14.9 cents or 11.3% of price, often precedes a larger move.

The relative performance shows XRP is not leading. Over the past month, Bitcoin is down 3.28% and Ethereum 11.59%, while XRP is down 13.25%. The token is underperforming both of the largest crypto assets, which is consistent with a market rotating toward Bitcoin’s deeper ETF liquidity rather than into altcoins.

The 50% annual decline sits against a backdrop of significant positive news: spot ETFs launched, cumulative ETF inflows passed $1.8 billion, Ripple won a national trust charter and RLUSD grew past $2.4 billion. The gap between corporate progress and token price is the core of the forecast.

Ripple’s OCC Trust Bank Approval Doesn’t Mention XRP Once

Ripple delivered the biggest regulatory win in its history this week. The OCC granted final approval for Ripple National Trust Bank on October 26, giving Ripple a federally supervised platform to support RLUSD and provide digital asset custody to enterprises. Chief executive Brad Garlinghouse announced the approval on the eve of Ripple’s Swell conference, which opened in New York on Tuesday, October 27, the company’s tenth anniversary edition.

The market response was muted. XRP traded near $1.29 when the approval was announced and has added less than 3 cents since. The approval release gave no rate and did not mention XRP once. The charter strengthens Ripple’s institutional business but does not create direct demand for the token.

That distinction is the core of the XRP problem. Ripple’s business increasingly runs through RLUSD, custody, prime brokerage and payments infrastructure. None of those services requires a customer to buy XRP. Custody clients hold their own assets. RLUSD users hold dollars. Prime brokerage clients trade a range of assets. The token benefits only indirectly, through network activity on the XRP Ledger.

Ripple’s recent institutional expansion follows the same pattern. Ripple Prime added 24/7 perpetual exposure to equities and other real-world assets, with RLUSD accepted as collateral. Ripple struck October deals with DriveWealth and Korea’s Meritz Securities. Standard Chartered added RLUSD custody through its Dubai International Financial Centre branch. Central securities depository CSD BR began recording securities ownership on the XRP Ledger, a first for a public blockchain. Each is a business win; none is an XRP buying program.

Swell week sets up the next test. The conference is Ripple’s largest annual event and typically produces partnership and product announcements. If any announcement creates direct XRP demand, such as a treasury allocation, a requirement to hold XRP for a service, or a bridge product that routes volume through XRP, the token could react. Announcements limited to RLUSD and custody are unlikely to move the price.

The trust charter does matter for the longer term. A federally supervised Ripple can serve banks and asset managers that would not touch an unregulated crypto company, which expands the XRP Ledger’s potential user base. But that is a multi-year story, and the market is not paying for it at $1.317.

RLUSD at $2.47 Billion, but Its XRP Ledger Share Fell to 39%

Ripple’s stablecoin is growing, but not on the XRP Ledger. RLUSD supply stood at $2.47 billion as of October 24, with $968 million, or 39%, issued on the XRP Ledger and $1.50 billion on Ethereum. Three weeks earlier, on October 3, RLUSD stood at $2.51 billion with $1.24 billion, or 49%, on the XRP Ledger and $1.27 billion on Ethereum.

The shift is significant. In three weeks, RLUSD on the XRP Ledger fell by $272 million, a decline of 22%, while RLUSD on Ethereum rose by $230 million. Total supply was roughly flat. The stablecoin’s center of gravity is moving to Ethereum, where decentralized finance liquidity is deeper, rather than to Ripple’s own chain.

That trend undercuts one of the main bull arguments for XRP. The thesis was that RLUSD growth would drive transaction volume on the XRP Ledger, which would require XRP for fees and potentially for liquidity bridging. With 61% of RLUSD now on Ethereum, the stablecoin’s growth is generating more activity on a competing chain than on the XRP Ledger.

Even XRP Ledger activity generates little token demand. Each RLUSD transfer on the XRP Ledger incurs only a small XRP fee, which means increased stablecoin usage will not significantly drive demand for XRP. The network burns those fees, and only 14.39 million XRP had been burned as of early October, a fraction of the 63.35 billion circulating supply.

Robinhood is the next distribution channel. RLUSD is expected to roll out on the Robinhood app by the end of 2026, introducing Ripple’s stablecoin to millions of retail users. Ripple and Robinhood have also expanded RLUSD across trading and treasury services and brought RLUSD to Robinhood Chain. Robinhood reported 28.7 million funded customers in its third quarter, so the distribution reach is large.

The Robinhood channel faces its own headwinds. Robinhood’s third-quarter crypto revenue fell 55% to $120 million, and crypto notional volume on its app dropped 48% to $21 billion. Retail crypto activity on the platform is in a deep slump, and RLUSD’s arrival is more likely to serve as a cash-management tool than as a driver of XRP trading.

For XRP holders, RLUSD’s growth is positive for Ripple’s valuation and neutral for the token. A reversal in the chain split, with RLUSD supply on the XRP Ledger rising back toward 50%, would be a more meaningful signal than headline stablecoin growth.

ETF Assets Fell From $1.77 Billion to $1.48 Billion in a Month

The spot XRP ETFs show demand fading on a value basis. As of the October 26 close, the six US spot XRP ETFs, XRPC, XRP, XRPZ, GXRP, TOXR and XRPR, held 1.17 billion XRP with $1.53 billion in net assets. Including the XRP held by the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF, total ETF holdings stood at 1.19 billion XRP, about 1.19% of the fixed 100 billion supply.

The token count has been stable while dollar value has fallen. ETF holdings were 1.19 billion XRP on October 3, with $1.77 billion in combined assets. Three weeks later, the funds still held 1.19 billion XRP, but combined assets had fallen to $1.48 billion by October 23. The $290 million decline in assets, a drop of 16%, came almost entirely from the falling XRP price rather than redemptions.

Trading activity in the funds has collapsed. Daily ETF trading volume fell from more than $102 million on October 2 to $18.8 million on October 23, a decline of 82%. Lower volume in the wrappers means fewer investors are actively trading XRP through ETFs, which reduces the marginal buyer that could absorb supply from other holders.

Cumulative flows remain positive. US spot XRP ETFs have amassed more than $1.8 billion in total net inflows since launch. The largest single-day inflow over the past month was $8.2 million on October 8, a small figure relative to the funds’ size and to the $176 million that flowed into Bitcoin ETFs on a single day this week.

Individual funds show the scale. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ held $395.9 million in assets and 306.1 million XRP, trading at $14.31 with daily volume of $2.5 million. REX-Osprey’s XRPR traded at $10.76 with $42.9 million in assets. The funds are a meaningful holder base but a small daily buyer.

The ETF picture explains why positive Ripple news has not lifted XRP. Institutional demand through regulated wrappers is steady but not growing, and the trading activity that would amplify price moves has dried up. A return to daily inflows above the $8.2 million October high would be the first sign that ETF buyers are adding exposure again.

A 13-Week ETF Inflow Streak Ended in Mid-October

Weekly ETF flow data show demand stalling after a long run. US spot XRP ETFs and the Bitwise index fund recorded net inflows of 8.2 million XRP in the week ended October 3 and 7.9 million XRP, worth roughly $11.1 million, in the week ended October 9. Then the streak broke.

In the week ended October 16, the funds recorded net outflows of 1.8 million XRP, worth roughly $2.3 million. That ended 13 consecutive weeks of inflows. The outflow was modest relative to total assets, but it signaled that institutional demand can fluctuate and that the steady accumulation of the summer had paused.

Flows turned slightly positive the following week. In the week ended October 23, the funds recorded net inflows of 1.5 million XRP, worth roughly $2.1 million, or about $4.3 million on some measures. Daily figures showed 708,300 XRP of inflows on October 19 and 199,600 XRP of outflows on October 20.

The new week opened negative. On Monday, October 26, US XRP ETFs recorded net outflows of 2.70 million XRP, worth about $3.56 million to $3.61 million at that day’s price. That was the day the OCC approval was announced, which shows that the trust bank news did not draw ETF buyers.

The flow sizes are small relative to the market. A weekly inflow of $2.1 million compares with XRP’s daily spot volume of $1.64 billion. At that ratio, ETF flows cannot drive price on their own, and they serve more as a sentiment gauge than as a direct source of demand.

The contrast with Bitcoin is stark. On October 26 and 27, Bitcoin ETFs took in $286.3 million. Over the same two days, Ethereum ETFs lost $148.8 million and Solana ETFs lost $19.2 million on October 27 alone. XRP’s flows were near zero. Institutional crypto money is concentrating in Bitcoin, leaving altcoin ETFs either flat or bleeding.

A sustained return to weekly inflows above 8 million XRP, matching the early-October pace, would signal that institutional demand has resumed. Until then, the ETF channel offers a floor of holders rather than a source of new buying.

Exchange Balances Rose by 2.31 Billion XRP in Three Weeks

The supply on exchanges is the clearest bearish signal in XRP’s on-chain data. Publicly attributed exchange wallets held 22.61 billion XRP as of October 24, up from 22.06 billion on October 17, 21.98 billion on October 10 and 20.30 billion on October 3. In three weeks, exchange balances rose by 2.31 billion XRP, an increase of 11.4%.

Rising exchange balances usually signal intent to sell. Holders move tokens to exchanges when they want liquidity, and a steady increase over several weeks points to accumulating sell-side supply. At $1.317, the 2.31 billion XRP added to exchange wallets is worth $3.04 billion, more than double the entire ETF complex’s assets.

The week-on-week figures show the pace. Balances across the same set of tracked wallets rose by 79.8 million XRP between October 10 and October 17, then by 550 million XRP between October 17 and October 24. The acceleration in the latest week coincided with XRP’s slide toward $1.25 and its failure to hold above $1.33.

Whale activity earlier in the cycle shows the other side. In late September, whales bought more than 470 million XRP over five days, worth about $724 million at the time, even as the October 1 escrow unlock approached. Separately, whale inflows to Binance hit $112.4 million in September, a sign of high selling pressure at the time. The data suggest large holders accumulated near $1.50 to $1.66 and are now either holding or distributing.

The concentration of supply is high. Wallets classed as whales control 68.5% of XRP supply. That concentration means a handful of large holders can move the market, and their decisions to send tokens to exchanges or hold them off-exchange matter more than retail flows.

Exchange balances are also where Ripple’s own unlocks would land if sold. So far, Ripple’s October unlock has not moved, but the rise in exchange balances shows that other large holders are positioning supply for sale. A reversal, with exchange balances falling back toward 21 billion XRP, would be a constructive signal that sellers have finished distributing.

Ripple’s October 1 Unlock Sits Untouched as November’s Approaches

Ripple’s escrow schedule is a recurring supply event. On October 1, four escrow contracts released 1 billion XRP into two Ripple wallets labeled Ripple 10 and Ripple 11, with 500 million XRP in each. A check of the XRP Ledger on October 27 showed both wallets still holding those 500 million XRP, and neither had sent a single payment since the unlock.

The untouched unlock is unusual. Ripple has historically returned 700 million to 800 million XRP of each monthly unlock to new escrow contracts, using the remainder for operational needs and ecosystem initiatives. After the September 1 unlock, Ripple put 700 million XRP back into escrow. On October 1, a later transaction showed 300 million XRP re-locked, which fits the pattern, but the wallets that received the gross unlock have not moved since.

Ripple’s escrow held 31.40 billion XRP as of October 24, or 31.4% of the fixed 100 billion supply, summed directly from live escrow objects on the XRP Ledger. A further 4.74 billion XRP sits in Ripple’s operational wallets. On October 3, escrow stood at 31.68 billion XRP, which means escrow balances fell by 280 million XRP over three weeks.

The next unlock is due on November 1, four days away. Another 1 billion XRP will be released from escrow, worth $1.32 billion at current prices. If Ripple follows its pattern, 700 million to 800 million will be relocked and 200 million to 300 million will enter circulation over the following month. That net addition has been priced in for years, and recent unlocks have had a limited impact on price.

The October anomaly adds a variable. If Ripple 10 or Ripple 11 start sending XRP out after Swell, that would say more about the month’s supply than any conference keynote. An untouched unlock is not a promise that Ripple won’t sell; it can relock the coins or move them later. Market participants will watch those wallets closely in the days after Swell and around the November 1 unlock.

Ripple originally placed 55 billion XRP into escrow in 2017 to create a predictable release schedule. Roughly one-third of supply remains locked, and the XRP Ledger enforces each release date, so tokens cannot be accessed early. The predictability limits shock risk, but the monthly release remains a structural headwind for a token that needs net new demand to rise.

A Death Cross and 68.5% Whale Control Raise the Stakes at $1.25

XRP’s longer-term technical structure is weak. The token’s moving averages have formed a death cross, in which a shorter-term average crosses below a longer-term one, a signal often associated with extended downtrends. XRP trades below its short and medium-term exponential moving averages, which cluster near $1.33, $1.36 and $1.37.

The $1.25 level is the line that matters. XRP has held above it throughout October despite a series of lower highs, and on-chain analysis identifies $1.25 as the support that must hold for any recovery toward $1.40. A break below $1.25 could trigger a drop to $0.98, especially if large holders continue selling, a level that matches the August low that preceded the 72% rally.

A three-day chart has generated a buy signal targeting $1.50, according to technical indicators tracked by market participants. That signal depends on $1.25 holding. The same setup shows whale control at 68.5% of supply, which cuts both ways: concentrated holders can drive a sharp rally if they buy, or a sharp decline if they sell.

The three-month context frames the risk. XRP has consolidated since the 70% rally in August, after dipping to $0.98. That consolidation has lasted long enough to build energy for a large move in either direction. The narrowing Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, with a width of 14.9 cents, support the view that a breakout is approaching.

Recovery requires reclaiming the averages. A move above the $1.33 to $1.37 band would put XRP back above its key moving averages and could support a rebound toward $1.40 and then $1.50. Continued weakness below those averages, combined with rising exchange balances, could push the price below $1.00 if the $1.25 floor gives way.

The bull case has a clear trigger. A daily close above $1.40 would confirm a bullish breakout pattern and potentially renew momentum toward $1.50. A close above $1.57, combined with ETF inflows above the October 8 high of $8.2 million, would indicate a stronger upward trend. Those are the levels traders are watching for confirmation that the death cross was a false signal.

The bear case has a clearer trigger. A daily close below $1.25 would break the October floor and put $0.98 in play, a decline of 25.6% from $1.317.

The Fed, Bitcoin’s $81,500 Line and a Weak Altcoin Bid

XRP trades as a high-beta follower of Bitcoin, and Bitcoin’s setup this week is pivotal. Bitcoin traded at $81,385 at 12:51 UTC, $115 below the $81,500 average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. A daily close above that line would put Bitcoin ETF holders back in profit and could lift the whole crypto market. Failure would leave altcoins exposed.

The Federal Reserve decides at 2:00 p.m. ET, with a 92.8% chance of a hold at 3.75% to 4.00% and an 84.4% chance of a December hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. will set the tone. His previous appearances triggered crypto liquidations of $488 million in August and $440 million in June, and altcoins like XRP fell further than Bitcoin on those days.

Macro conditions are not friendly to speculative assets. The 10-year Treasury yields 5.01%, the dollar index sits at 102.42 near a two-week high, and Brent crude trades at $115.30 after a strike claim on a Saudi refinery. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding tokens, and a stronger dollar tightens global liquidity.

The broader crypto tape is mixed. Bitcoin gained 1.88% over 24 hours on a short squeeze. Ethereum traded at $2,361, up 2.23%, holding its $2,310 realized price. Solana traded near $102. XRP’s gain of 1.65% is in line with the group, which shows it is moving with the market rather than on its own news.

Retail activity remains depressed. Robinhood’s crypto app volume fell 48% year over year in the third quarter, and the Coinbase premium on Bitcoin stayed negative all October, both signs that US retail buyers are absent. XRP has historically depended more on retail demand than Bitcoin or Ethereum, which makes the retail slump a specific headwind.

Options markets show caution easing. The premium paid for short-dated downside protection on Bitcoin has narrowed sharply, with one-week skew falling to under 1% from almost 10% a week earlier. Maturities from one to six months still price a preference for puts. That positioning suggests traders expect near-term stability but remain hedged against a longer decline.

A Fed that frames December as data-dependent, combined with a Bitcoin close above $81,500, would give XRP the macro tailwind it needs to test $1.40. A hawkish Warsh that pushes yields higher would likely send XRP back to test $1.25.

The Technical Map: $1.25 Below, $1.3346 and $1.40 Above

XRP’s chart shows a token pinned between a firm floor and a dense resistance band. On the daily chart, the Bollinger midpoint at $1.33456 is falling and acts as the first major resistance. The upper band at $1.40901 marks the top of the current volatility range, and the lower band at $1.26012 sits just above the $1.25 support.

Immediate resistance begins at $1.32950 to $1.32990, the zone XRP closed just above on Tuesday. Above that, $1.33287 marks Tuesday’s high, $1.33456 the Bollinger midpoint, and $1.34 Wednesday’s early peak. The exponential moving averages at $1.33, $1.36 and $1.37 form a resistance band that has capped October rallies. A daily close above $1.37 would clear all of them.

Above $1.37, $1.40 is the confirmation level for a bullish breakout. The upper Bollinger band at $1.409 sits just above it. Beyond that, $1.50 marks the three-day buy signal target and the early-October trading level, and $1.57 is the close that would signal a stronger trend. The late-September high near $1.66 and the August peak of $1.70 are the longer-range targets.

Support starts at $1.31383, the resistance level XRP reclaimed on Tuesday, followed by $1.31, Wednesday’s intraday low. The $1.29 to $1.30 zone, where XRP traded during the OCC announcement, is next. The lower Bollinger band at $1.26012 and the $1.25 floor form the critical support zone. Below that, $0.98 is the target on a breakdown.

The distances frame the setup. From $1.317, the downside to $1.25 is 6.7 cents, or 5.1%. The upside to $1.3346 is 1.8 cents, or 1.3%, and to $1.40 is 8.3 cents, or 6.3%. The upside to $1.50 is 18.3 cents, or 13.9%, while the downside to $0.98 is 33.7 cents, or 25.6%.

The near-term risk is roughly balanced, with the price trapped between a firm floor at $1.25 and immediate resistance at $1.3346. The larger moves are skewed: a breakdown below $1.25 risks a deeper fall than a breakout above $1.40 would deliver in gains, because the next support below $1.25 is much further away than the next resistance above $1.40.

XRP Price Forecast: $1.25–$1.41 Range, $1.50 on a Close Above $1.40

The forecast for XRP-USD rests on whether Ripple’s corporate progress ever translates into token demand, and on whether $1.25 holds while it waits. XRP at $1.317 trades 64% below its record and roughly 50% below its level a year ago, with a death cross on the daily chart, exchange balances up 2.31 billion XRP in three weeks, ETF assets down 16% to $1.48 billion and RLUSD’s XRP Ledger share falling to 39%.

The base case is a range between $1.25 and $1.41 through the November 1 escrow unlock. The Fed holds and keeps December open, Bitcoin stays near its $81,500 ETF cost basis, Swell produces RLUSD and custody announcements without direct XRP demand, and ETF flows stay near flat. XRP oscillates between its $1.25 floor and the upper Bollinger band at $1.409, with the daily midpoint at $1.3346 as the pivot.

The bullish case targets $1.40, then $1.50 and $1.57. It requires a daily close above $1.40 to confirm a breakout, a Bitcoin close above $81,500 after a data-dependent Fed, a Swell announcement that creates direct XRP demand, ETF inflows above the $8.2 million October high, and exchange balances falling back from 22.61 billion XRP. The three-day buy signal and narrowing Bollinger Bands support the possibility of a sharp move once resistance clears.

The bearish case targets $0.98. It requires a daily close below $1.25, a hawkish Fed that pushes the 10-year above 5.05%, a Bitcoin failure below $79,000, continued exchange inflows, and evidence that Ripple is moving the October unlock from its Ripple 10 and Ripple 11 wallets. With 68.5% of supply held by whales, a coordinated move by large holders would accelerate any break.

The verdict is neutral with a bearish tilt. Ripple’s trust charter, Swell and RLUSD’s Robinhood launch strengthen the company but do not require anyone to buy XRP, and the on-chain data show supply building on exchanges while ETF demand stalls. The $1.25 floor has held all month, which keeps a range trade viable. XRP at $1.317 is a hold for range traders, a buy only on a daily close above $1.40 targeting $1.50, and a sell on a daily close below $1.25 targeting $0.98.

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