Dow Gains 0.48%, Nasdaq Loses 210 Points, S&P 500 at 7,735 as MU Slides 3.8%

Forty minutes into Friday’s session, the three major averages are pointing in three different directions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 52,427.79, up 250.10 points or 0.48%. The S&P 500 is at 7,735.22, down 8.84 points or 0.11%. The Nasdaq Composite is at 26,502.51, down 210.52 points or 0.79%. The Russell 2000 is flat at 2,767.68, up 0.41 points after Thursday’s 1.38% jump.

The gap between the Dow and the Nasdaq is close to 1.3 percentage points in less than an hour. That is the clearest picture of where money is going this week. Old-economy balance sheets are being bid. Anything tied to borrowed money for AI infrastructure is being sold.

The S&P 500 opened at 7,745.32 against Thursday’s close of 7,744.06 and reached 7,756.84 in the first minutes. It then reversed to a session low of 7,733.20, just above where it sits now. Early volume was 478.9 million shares. The index is 1.4% below its 52-week high of 7,844.52 and well above its 52-week low of 6,316.91. It is down 1.00% over five sessions and up 12.97% year to date.

The Nasdaq is under more pressure. At 26,502.51 it is 1,097 points, or 3.98%, below the record close of 27,599.89 set on October 6. It is on track for a weekly loss of more than 2%. The Dow is headed for a weekly gain of 1%, and it rose as high as 52,539.36 just before 10 a.m., up 361.67 points, before giving back part of that move.

Volatility is easing even as the Nasdaq slips. The CBOE Volatility Index is at 15.88, down 3.51% and below Thursday’s 16.46. Wednesday’s spike to 16.87 came with a 1.1% drop in the S&P 500 and a 1.9% drop in the Nasdaq. Two days later, fear gauges are lower and the tech-heavy index is down again. Traders are not hedging a crash. They are moving money out of one group and into another.

The 10-year Treasury yield is steady at 5.09% after falling 10 basis points on Thursday. The 30-year yield is at 5.43%. With long rates at those levels, any company that funds growth with debt is being valued like a credit instrument, and that is driving everything else in this market.

Thursday’s rebound set up the morning. The Dow gained 556.21 points to 52,177.69. The S&P 500 added 25.12 points to 7,744.06 and the Nasdaq added 20.16 points to 26,713.03. Volume reached 20.7 billion shares against a 20-session average of 17.6 billion, and advancers beat decliners 3.1-to-1 on the S&P 500. Friday is repeating that pattern of wide participation, but with tech weighing on the headline numbers.

Day Structure: Firm Futures, a Quiet Warsh, Then a Nasdaq Fade

The session started on a stable footing overnight. Before dawn in New York, S&P 500 futures were at 7,803.75, up 12.75 points, and Dow futures were at 52,616, up 186 points. Nasdaq futures were the weak spot at 30,112.25, down 31.50 points. Russell 2000 futures were up 0.36% at 2,791.70. That split held through every phase of the morning.

The overnight event was Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s fireside chat at the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok. Warsh gave no signal on the October decision. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edged higher after his remarks, Asian equity indexes were steady, and Treasury yields barely moved. The market treated a lack of hawkish surprise as good news.

Before the open, broad buying was already visible in stocks that trade before the bell. S&P 500 members that had moved were rising more than 2-to-1, with 224 higher, 106 lower and 173 unchanged. Chip names were the exception and kept falling through the premarket session. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF was quoted at $773.03, up 0.16% from Thursday’s $771.79 close. The Invesco QQQ Trust was down 0.16% and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF was up 0.29%.

Bank and insurance earnings hit before the bell. Truist and Travelers both traded lower, and Citizens, Regions and M&T Bank also reported. Alcoa traded higher on its after-hours report from Thursday. Tesla rose as much as 5.4% before the bell after unveiling its Roadster. CoreWeave fell 5% before the open, erasing much of Thursday’s late surge.

At the 9:30 a.m. bell, the Dow was up 0.4%, the S&P 500 up 0.1% and the Nasdaq down 0.3%. The S&P 500’s first print was 7,745.32, and it reached its session high of 7,756.84 within minutes.

Then the bid faded in the largest names. By 9:54 a.m. the S&P 500 had slipped to 7,742.25 while the Dow climbed to 52,539.36 and the Nasdaq dropped to 26,530.57. By 10:10 a.m. the Nasdaq loss had grown to 0.79% and the S&P 500 had turned negative at 7,735.22.

Most stocks did not follow the indexes down. At the turn of the hour, close to four in five S&P 500 stocks were rising, with advancers ahead 4-to-1. Ten of 11 sectors were green, led by financials and energy. The cap-weighted index is falling because its biggest technology weights are falling, not because the average stock is weak.

Friday also has a moderate data load. September import and export prices and September industrial production are scheduled, with consensus forecasts of 0.8% for imports, 1% for exports and 0.4% for production. The September federal budget balance has a consensus deficit of $34.70 billion, against a $167 billion deficit in August. None of these releases has yet moved the trade enough to change its direction.

Chips on the Edge of a Nine-Session Losing Streak

The weakest group in the market is semiconductors, and the losses are wide. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is down more than 2% this morning and is heading for a ninth straight decline. That would be its longest losing streak since May 2006. After that 2006 streak ended, the fund fell another 17% before bottoming in July. This sector has seen this setup before.

SOXX closed Thursday at $514.71, down 0.91%. Its five-session loss through Thursday was 8.62%. It is still up 68.80% year to date, with a 52-week range of $260.44 to $655.95. Thursday’s trading ran from $495.79 to $517.12 on 16.44 million shares, double its 8.16 million average. Heavy volume on down days means investors are selling, not just stepping back.

Within a 60-stock semiconductor basket, 57 names are down this morning. That kind of near-total selling is what an asset-allocation shift looks like, not a reaction to one company’s news.

Micron is the biggest single drag. The memory maker is at $895.82, down $35.42 or 3.80%, with its market value back to $1.014 trillion. Its 52-week range runs from $192.40 to $1,255.00, so it is now 29% below its peak while still up 360% over 12 months. Micron was quoted at $912.80 before the bell and has lost more ground since the open.

SK hynix ADRs are down 5.34% to $138.31. Intel is down 2.77% to $92.73, valuing the company at $490.2 billion, with 17.8 million shares traded in the first 40 minutes. Super Micro Computer has dropped 5.33% to $33.22. Sandisk was quoted at $1,362 before the open, down 2.35%.

Nvidia is holding up better than the rest of the group. It is at $216.36, down 0.40%, with a market capitalization of $5.224 trillion. It fell 1.84% on Thursday to $217.23. Nvidia funds its own expansion from operating cash. The names falling hardest are the ones whose customers, or the companies themselves, rely on bond markets to build capacity.

That split is the clearest reading of this week. AI hardware is not being sold as one group. The market is separating firms that self-fund from firms that depend on financing, and in a market with a 5.09% 10-year yield the second group is being treated as rate-sensitive. Thursday’s chip losses were cut short by a 10-basis-point drop in yields. Friday’s yields are flat, and the chips are falling again.

Upside catalysts exist, but they come later. Big Tech earnings start next week, and those reports will show whether the capital spending that drives chip demand is being maintained or cut.

CoreWeave CRWV and the AI Credit Trade

CoreWeave is the stock most directly tied to the AI financing worries this week, and it is falling again. Shares are at $64.11, down $5.58 or 8.01%, on 20.4 million shares by 10:12 a.m. Its market capitalization is $35.36 billion. The 52-week range of $59.51 to $141.79 shows how much has been lost: the stock is 55% below its high and down 49% over 12 months.

Thursday was a big reversal. CoreWeave traded between $59.51 and $69.76, dipping below $60 to touch its late-July lows before closing at $69.69, up 5.94%. Friday’s drop has erased most of that rebound. The $60 level is now the key support. If it holds, Thursday’s break below it was a false breakdown. If it fails, the rebound was only a short squeeze. Overhead, the $70 strike, which carries large options open interest, and the $92 to $93 area are the next resistance points.

The credit markets are driving the stock. CoreWeave’s five-year credit default swap spread rose 16% to a record 1.14% before easing to 1.03%. Its 2031 bonds yield 15.78%. The company has more than $50 billion in debt. Since October 6, the spread on that default protection has widened sharply, and that rise lines up closely with the share price slide.

A bond yielding 15.78% from a company at the center of AI infrastructure tells investors exactly how lenders view the risk. When the 10-year Treasury pays 5.09%, a spread above 10 percentage points prices in real default risk, not just the cost of funding a fast-growing company. Equity investors are following the lead of bond holders.

Nvidia, CoreWeave’s second-largest shareholder with a 10% stake, tried to calm the market. CEO Jensen Huang told reporters in Stockholm that CoreWeave’s financial strength is improving every day and that its cost of capital is falling. He said he saw no need for Nvidia to backstop the company. The easing of the swap spread from 1.14% to 1.03% is so far the only market evidence that supports his view.

The CoreWeave selloff has spread to other AI-power and data-center names. IREN is down 5.69% to $28.66. Cipher Digital has dropped 3.24% to $9.72. TeraWulf, which gained 9.36% on Thursday, has fallen 1.66% to $12.41. Constellation Energy fell for a second straight session on Thursday after a 5.49% drop on October 14 that was tied to the CoreWeave news.

Across the market, data center operators, utilities, chipmakers and cloud providers are expected to raise between $300 billion and $570 billion in debt this year. With a 5.09% 10-year yield, that is a large amount of new supply competing for buyers. CoreWeave’s 15.78% bond yield is the clearest signal of how much buyers are now demanding to lend into that buildout.

The 5.09% 10-Year and the Inflation Data Behind It

The level of long-term yields is the backdrop for every move this week. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.09% this morning, after falling 10 basis points on Thursday. The 30-year bond is at 5.43%. Earlier this month the 30-year reached its highest level in 19 years, which led Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to buy back bonds in an effort to push long rates lower.

The September inflation data pushed yields higher. Headline consumer price inflation rose to 3.7% year over year. Core CPI increased 0.3% for the month, above the 0.2% forecast, bringing the annual core rate to 2.6%. Energy prices jumped 5.2% in a single month and gasoline rose 9.1%. Pump prices have stayed above $4 a gallon for a record 158 straight days.

Thursday’s producer price data added to the pressure. August PPI was revised up to 0.5% from the initial 0.4%, and September core PPI rose 0.3%. Both readings show input costs feeding through to companies. The bond market still rallied on Thursday because positioning was heavily short after the CPI report, and the bounce came largely from investors covering those bets.

The effects reach well beyond Wall Street. Mortgage rates are at 7.5%, and mortgage applications have weakened. Higher refinancing costs affect companies, households and governments, and that explains why falling yields help nearly all equity groups while rising yields hurt the debt-funded ones first.

The rate outlook is shaped by a Fed that has already tightened policy. In September the central bank raised rates by a quarter point, its first increase since 2023. A weak September jobs report had led markets to expect the Fed to hold in October. The hot CPI and PPI readings changed that view, and yields rose as traders priced in a higher chance of another increase.

Today’s moves show which stocks are most sensitive to rates. Banks are higher because a steeper yield curve and stable credit help lending margins. Bank of America is up 1.05% to $52.24. Health care, which hit record highs this week, is attracting buyers looking for steady cash flow. The weakest groups are chips and leveraged AI infrastructure names, whose valuations depend most on future financing.

At these levels, investors can earn 5.09% on government debt for a decade without taking stock market risk. That return is the hurdle every growth stock now has to beat. Companies with steady earnings can clear it. Companies that need to borrow at 15% or more to grow struggle to.

Small caps add another angle. The Russell 2000 surged 1.38% on Thursday as yields fell. It is flat today with yields unchanged, at 2,767.68. Smaller companies carry more floating-rate debt than large caps, so they react quickly to any change in the yield path.

Warsh in Bangkok and the October 27–28 FOMC

Kevin Warsh’s comments in Bangkok were the main policy event of the morning, and he said little that moved markets. Speaking in a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, the Fed chair said economic conditions since the September meeting had “broadly conformed to our expectations.” That line suggests the Fed’s outlook has not changed in a month.

On the October decision, he was clear that he would not commit. “I don’t prejudge meetings,” Warsh said. He said he would not state in advance what he might do at the remaining meetings this year. His comments came just before the Fed’s blackout period ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, so markets will hear no more official guidance before the decision.

Warsh linked global policy together, noting that central banks around the world are tightening at the same time to fight inflation. He also called the AI investment surge “probably the most important thing that’s happening in the global economy on the upside.” He said AI could change the real economy, but added that he does not yet know how deeply it will affect employment.

He has previously linked part of the rise in long-term Treasury yields to stronger growth and to big technology companies competing for capital. That connects directly to today’s market. If AI firms are raising debt at yields above government bonds, they are bidding for the same pool of savings, and that pushes up borrowing costs across the economy.

Other Fed officials have pointed toward a pause. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller have all signaled that the Fed could hold in October. Waller said rate increases do not need to come at back-to-back meetings. Together with Warsh’s neutral tone, that has kept the dollar softer and supported expectations for no change this month.

The bond market is not ruling out another hike. December is still in play, and the September inflation data increased the odds of a move by year-end. Before Jackson Hole in August, Warsh had said inflation was a bigger concern than weaker hiring, and he has not changed that stance.

Politics adds more pressure. The November 3 midterm elections are less than three weeks away, and President Trump has repeatedly called for much lower rates, writing in September that U.S. interest rates should be 1% or below. With the Fed raising rates while the White House calls for cuts, every speech is under close watch.

For equities, a Fed that holds in October without signaling cuts means real yields stay high. That supports banks, insurers and companies with steady cash flow over long-duration growth stocks. Friday’s sector moves match that outlook.

Breadth: Four Advancers for Every Decliner Under a Red Nasdaq

The headline index levels hide a broad rally. Close to four in five S&P 500 members are trading higher this morning, with advancers outnumbering decliners 4-to-1. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are up. The cap-weighted S&P 500 is negative only because its largest technology weights are falling.

The list of stocks at record highs shows where money is going. Visa and Mastercard both reached new highs this morning as payments stocks rallied. MetLife, McKesson and Expeditors International set records. ConocoPhillips hit a new high as energy rebounded from Thursday’s 1.58% drop. Software firm Box also printed a record. Dow Jones indexes for consumer finance and reinsurance reached new peaks as well.

Payments, insurance, drug distribution, freight forwarding and oil production all share one trait: steady cash flow with little reliance on capital markets. Those are the businesses investors are favoring while borrowing costs stay high.

This shift started before Friday. Through Thursday, 366 of the S&P 500’s 500 members, or 73%, were higher for the week, even though the index was down. Since October 6, close to 70% of members had advanced while the S&P 500 fell 1%. When most stocks rise and the index falls, it shows how concentrated the index has become in a few large technology names.

Software is showing the same split within tech. Salesforce and ServiceNow are each up more than 1% after rallying Thursday. Of 45 stocks in a software basket, 33 are higher. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF is at $109.60, up 1.81%. Software outside of cybersecurity has been a source of strength as chips slide. Software firms spend far less on capital than chipmakers or data center operators, so their margins hold up better with higher rates.

Varonis Systems is one of the morning’s most active stocks. It is up 2.71% to $48.62 on 14.8 million shares, more than eight times its 1.75 million average daily volume. That kind of volume points to a specific catalyst or major repositioning in the stock.

Health care is still the leading defensive group. The sector reached record highs this week, rose 1.86% on Thursday as the best of 11 sectors, and is up more than 4% over seven days. Diagnostics company Labcorp agreed to buy selected BioReference Health assets from OPKO Health, including the FDA-approved 4Kscore prostate cancer test.

Thursday’s breadth was strong: 23 of 30 Dow components rose and S&P 500 advancers outnumbered decliners 3.1-to-1. Friday’s 4-to-1 ratio is even stronger. Two days of wide participation are a positive sign for the market’s foundation, even as AI leadership weakens.

Truist TFC and Travelers TRV Open Bank-and-Insurer Earnings Friday

Financials are leading the sector rankings this morning, but the two biggest earnings reports in the group drew selling. That shows investors are bullish on the sector while being selective about individual names.

Truist reported adjusted earnings of $1.16 per diluted share, up 12% from $1.04 a year earlier but down from $1.23 in the second quarter. Reported earnings were $0.56 per share. The gap came from $1.4 billion in losses on available-for-sale securities sold to reposition the balance sheet, which cut noninterest income by 95% to $0.08 billion. Net interest income was $3.66 billion, up from $3.62 billion in the prior quarter and $3.63 billion a year ago. Net income fell to $0.80 billion from $1.55 billion in the second quarter.

The bank guided fourth-quarter net interest income to $3.65 billion to $3.7 billion. That forecast includes a $125 million hit from a loan sale and a $40 million benefit from the securities repositioning. Truist sold $7.7 billion of unsecured consumer loans to private equity this week, after selling $5.5 billion of near-prime auto loans last month. New CEO Mike Lyons is shrinking riskier balance-sheet assets. Before the open the stock was quoted at $45.39, below Thursday’s low of $45.51 and close to the October 8 swing low of $45.06.

Travelers delivered a strong report on paper. Net income was $1.917 billion, or $9.04 per diluted share, up 10% from $8.24. Core income rose $80 million to $1.947 billion, or $9.18 per share. The combined ratio improved by 0.5 point to 86.8%, and the underlying combined ratio was 84.1%.

The details are what moved the stock. Catastrophe losses reached $538 million, up from $402 million a year earlier, mostly from wind and hail storms in several states. Favorable development on prior-year reserves, which jumped to $234 million from $22 million, did much of the work in the earnings beat. Net written premiums were $11.480 billion, up 2% after adjusting for the sale of its Canadian business. Flat premiums combined with earnings driven by reserve releases do not support the stock’s valuation.

Travelers was quoted before the open at $364.65, down 5.01% from Thursday’s close of $383.89. A $19 drop in a stock with an $80 billion market value is a large reaction for a company that beat estimates.

The overall group is still rising. Bank of America is up 1.05% to $52.24 on 9.7 million shares. SoFi Technologies is up 1.19% to $15.27. Citizens Financial was quoted before the open at $62, down 2.25%. Bank stocks are trading on interest margin expectations. Insurers are trading on how sustainable their underwriting profits are.

Alcoa AA and the Physical Side of the AI Buildout

Alcoa is one of the morning’s clear earnings winners, and its report links the AI investment theme to the industrial economy. Shares were quoted at $41.44 before the open, above Thursday’s high of $40.68 and up from a $40.42 close.

Third-quarter net income was $483 million, or $1.81 per diluted share, more than double the $232 million, or $0.88 per share, reported a year earlier. Adjusted earnings were $1.82 per share. Revenue was $3.704 billion, down 7% from the second quarter but up from $2.995 billion a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items was $789 million, compared with $901 million in the prior quarter and $270 million a year ago.

Cash generation was strong. Operating cash flow was $643 million and free cash flow was $472 million, up from a negative $66 million a year earlier. Alcoa ended the quarter with $4.4 billion in cash, including $2.6 billion raised for the AliGroup acquisition from South32. South32 shareholders approved that deal on October 15. Alcoa issued $1.5 billion of 6.625% notes due 2034 and $1.1 billion of 6.875% notes due 2036 to fund the $3.1 billion cash price. Closing is expected in the first half of 2027.

Operations improved. Alumina output rose 11% from the prior quarter to 2.467 million metric tons as the Pinjarra refinery stabilized. Aluminum production climbed 2% to 649,000 metric tons, the sixth straight quarterly increase, after the restart of the Alumar smelter in Brazil. Realized aluminum prices fell to $4,527 per metric ton from $4,752. Realized alumina prices rose to $353 from $334.

The AI link is in the Massena East deal. Alcoa signed agreements to sell parts of its New York site for up to $315 million. The upfront payment of $50 million to $65 million depends on how much data center capacity is approved there. Another $60 million to $250 million could follow over seven years as that capacity is built. An aluminum maker’s industrial land is now valued based on how much computing power it can host.

Alcoa reaffirmed full-year guidance of 2.4 million to 2.6 million metric tons of aluminum production and 9.5 million to 9.6 million metric tons of alumina. It expects fourth-quarter aluminum segment EBITDA to face $30 million in headwinds from raw materials and maintenance.

The equipment side of the AI buildout is also strong. Schneider Electric said data center demand grew at a triple-digit rate in the third quarter and raised its 2026 organic growth target to 12% to 14%. Real-world demand for power gear is still rising even as financing for new projects gets harder. Investors are buying companies that supply the physical buildout and selling the companies that borrow heavily to fund it.

Tesla TSLA, SpaceX SPCX and the Musk Complex

Tesla is one of the most actively traded large-cap gainers today, thanks to a product event rather than earnings. Shares are at $369.45, up $7.01 or 1.93%, on 17.3 million shares by 10:12 a.m. The market value is $1.458 trillion. The stock rose as much as 5.4% before the bell and was quoted at $373.64, up 3.09%, before trimming gains after the open.

The catalyst was the second-generation Roadster, unveiled Thursday night at SpaceX’s facility in Texas after a two-week delay. The car rode up an inverted half-ramp held by a vacuum fan, launched off it upside down, flipped in the air and righted itself using compressed-air thrusters before landing. The cold-gas thruster system was developed by SpaceX. Tesla calls the Roadster the world’s first flying car and expects production to start in 2028.

The rally comes ahead of Tesla’s earnings next week. The stock is down 17.50% over 12 months, with a 52-week range of $297.38 to $498.83. Its trailing P/E of 340 shows how much of the valuation rests on future products rather than current earnings. The Roadster event adds to that story, and the third-quarter report will show how the core EV business is performing.

SpaceX shares are moving in the opposite direction after the open. The stock is at $146.46, down $2.16 or 1.45%, on 22.7 million shares, with a $1.931 trillion market capitalization. It was quoted up more than 2% before the open and was at $150.35 early, up 1.16%. A price-target increase to $275 from $230 boosted it before the bell, along with the use of SpaceX thrusters in the Roadster.

SpaceX debuted at $135 per share on June 12 and hit a record $225.64 on June 16. At $146.46 it is 35% below that peak. Its 52-week range is $104.83 to $225.64. Rival Blue Origin’s plans to ramp New Glenn launches to several flights per week by the end of the decade add to the competitive picture.

Investors have long expected Tesla and SpaceX to combine at some point, and Thursday’s event put the two companies’ technology in a single product. That kind of crossover makes Musk’s companies trade as a group on news days.

Rocket Lab is still under pressure in the space sector. It fell 6.64% on Thursday to $55.25 on 47.8 million shares after its Neutron launch was pushed to 2027. Its 52-week range is $37.57 to $151.00, a 63% drop from its high.

Ford is a smaller auto winner, up 2.60% to $12.63. Stellantis rose 2.53% before the open.

Netflix NFLX, Strategy MSTR and the Rest of the Single-Stock Board

Netflix is under pressure ahead of its earnings report. Shares are at $70.94, down $1.67 or 2.30%, on 10.4 million shares. The stock was quoted at $70.23 before the open, down 3.28%. The latest news is that Netflix named Peter Rice chief content officer, following its largest layoffs in four years.

Netflix announced on Wednesday that it would cut close to 1,000 jobs, or 6% of its workforce. The cuts mainly hit product, technology, legal and human resources teams. Its last major layoffs were in 2022, when it let go of 450 people after losing subscribers. The stock closed at $70.57 on Wednesday, compared with $122 a year earlier. Its 52-week range is $65.08 to $124.86, and it is down 39.46% over 12 months. The market value is $295.4 billion. Netflix reports third-quarter results on October 20.

Strategy is down more than 3% before the open because of an index decision. MSCI said it will adopt rules to remove “non-operating companies,” those whose main business resembles an investment fund, from its global indexes. Strategy holds 4% of all bitcoin and is the most prominent company that could be affected. MSCI will publish the final list on November 11, and the rules take effect after the market close on November 30. Removal would force index funds to sell.

Semtech was quoted 4.36% higher before the open after raising its fiscal third-quarter 2027 revenue and earnings guidance and setting a long-term outlook through 2030 at its investor day. The rebound follows a 10.02% drop on Thursday to $144.21. Twilio was quoted 3.28% higher before the open as price-target increases tied to AI agents lifted the stock.

Coca-Cola rose 0.8% before the open after a price-target increase to $98 from $93. Separately, KFC’s U.S. restaurants will switch from PepsiCo to Coca-Cola drinks next year. It is the first change in the chain’s beverage supplier since PepsiCo bought KFC in 1986. EchoStar was quoted 2.7% higher after an upgrade with a $144 price target.

Fox Corporation was the top S&P 500 gainer before the open, with Class A shares at $66.32, up 3.66%, and Class B shares at $59.24, up 3.68%. Invitation Homes was quoted at $27.44, up 2.39%. NiSource rose 2.3% to $42.20 before the open. J.B. Hunt was quoted down 2.97% to $228.31.

At the far end of the speculative market, Jaguar Health fell 21.3% to $3.61 before the open after a special dividend update. MDxHealth dropped 15.8% to $0.5080 after preliminary third-quarter revenue and withdrawing its full-year forecast. Recursion Pharmaceuticals is down 9.12% to $3.78.

Thursday’s biggest movers shaped some of today’s trading. Circle Internet Group gained 9.33% to $86.97. Hewlett Packard Enterprise lost 7.10% to $58.63 and Dell dropped 6.80% to $473.39 after downgrades questioned how much AI spending is reaching hardware sales.

Oil at $95.77, Gold at $4,205.90, Bitcoin at $81,790

Commodities are giving equities some relief this morning, and geopolitics is driving most of the moves. West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery is at $95.77 per barrel, down 73 cents or 0.76%. Earlier the contract was quoted at $97.52. Brent crude was trading near $105.90, keeping the spread between the two benchmarks close to $10.

Two supply measures are capping prices. The International Energy Agency has committed to releasing the last 100 million barrels under its March emergency agreement, along with more than 20 million barrels of diesel. The U.S. is also considering easing sanctions on some “shadow fleet” tankers carrying oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela, aiming to lower record global freight rates. That follows a temporary lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel.

Supply risks remain. Ships have caught fire or sunk in the Strait of Hormuz this week, and more than two dozen attacks have been recorded in the region since the start of October. Conflict along the Red Sea has also picked up. President Trump said the U.S. may strike Iran’s nuclear facilities again, including the fortified Pickaxe Mountain site, while ruling out nuclear weapons and ground troops.

For stocks, oil acts as an inflation driver. Energy prices rose 5.2% in September’s CPI report and gasoline climbed 9.1%. Every dollar oil falls eases pressure on the next inflation report. Energy stocks are rising even with crude lower, as ConocoPhillips reaches a record and the energy sector rebounds from Thursday’s 1.58% loss.

Tanker stocks gave up gains on the sanctions news. Frontline fell 6.63% on Thursday to $52.54. DHT Holdings dropped 6.09% to $23.43, and Okeanis Eco Tankers lost 6.77% to $89.18. Easing shadow fleet sanctions would add tanker supply and lower the freight rates that have lifted these stocks.

Gold futures are at $4,205.90 an ounce, up $35.80 or 0.86%, recovering further after slipping earlier in the week. Silver futures rose 1.35% to $57.92 early. Gold’s gain alongside a softer dollar and firm Treasury yields shows demand for protection against both inflation and geopolitical risk. Equinox Gold rose 7.97% on Thursday to $11.11.

Bitcoin is at $81,790 after jumping as much as 2% early to $81,765 as yields and oil fell. It is still on track for a second straight weekly loss. The usual October rally has not appeared this year, despite Bitcoin’s history of strong Octobers since 2013. The MSCI rule on digital asset treasury companies adds pressure on stocks tied to bitcoin holdings.

The VIX at 15.88 shows that oil and geopolitical risks are not causing panic. Markets are taking the Middle East news in stride.

Weekly Scorecard and Next Week’s Catalysts

Heading into Friday, the week has been one of the most clearly split in months. The Dow is on track for a 1% weekly gain. The S&P 500 is down 1.00% over five sessions. The Nasdaq is on pace to lose more than 2%. Through Thursday, the week’s closes looked like this:

The S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54 on October 9, 7,807.24 on October 12 and 7,805.45 on October 13. It fell to 7,718.94 on October 14, Wednesday, the worst session for the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 since July, and rebounded to 7,744.06 on Thursday. The 86.51-point drop on Wednesday came after the hot CPI report and a global selloff in AI stocks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 5% and Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 3% in the same selloff.

Next week shifts attention from inflation to earnings. Tesla, Meta Platforms and Netflix all report between Tuesday, October 20 and Wednesday, October 21. Meta’s results matter most for the AI financing debate. Meta is a major CoreWeave customer with a long-term computing contract worth up to $21 billion, and its capital spending plans will set the outlook for data center demand.

Big Tech needs to show that its large AI investments are producing enough revenue and cash flow to justify the cost. If spending guidance holds while margins stay intact, chips have a reason to stabilize. If spending is cut or financing becomes more expensive, the CoreWeave selloff could spread further.

Housing data arrives Tuesday, October 20. Building permits are forecast at 1.39 million and housing starts at 1.3 million, along with pending home sales. With mortgage rates at 7.5%, any miss would add to evidence that higher rates are hurting construction.

The Fed’s October 27–28 meeting follows. Warsh’s neutral remarks and the comments of Jefferson, Williams and Waller point to a hold. Inflation data released between now and the meeting could still change that. Valero reports next week, with its stock at $450.34 before the open after a sevenfold rally.

The weekly technical picture leaves a few clear markers. For the S&P 500, Wednesday’s close of 7,718.94 is the first support and the 7,844.52 high is the ceiling. For the Nasdaq, 26,500 is being tested this morning, and the October 6 record of 27,599.89 is far above. For SOXX, Thursday’s low of $495.79 matters if the ninth straight loss is confirmed. For CoreWeave, the $60 level separates a false breakdown from a real one.

Session Verdict: Mixed, With Breadth Beating the Headline

Friday’s session so far is mixed, but the details lean more constructive than the S&P 500’s 0.11% loss suggests. The Dow is up 250.10 points at 52,427.79, the S&P 500 is at 7,735.22 and the Nasdaq is down 0.79% at 26,502.51. Advancers beat decliners 4-to-1 and 10 of 11 sectors are higher. A market with that much participation is not breaking down.

Leadership is changing, not disappearing. Payments, insurance, drug distribution, freight, energy and software are carrying the market. Visa, Mastercard, MetLife, McKesson, Expeditors, ConocoPhillips and Box all hit records in the same hour that a 60-stock chip basket fell almost across the board. Over the past two weeks, 70% of S&P 500 members have risen while the index lost 1%. That is rotation, not a selloff.

The weak spot is AI infrastructure that depends on borrowing. CoreWeave down 8.01% to $64.11 with its 2031 bonds yielding 15.78% is the clearest signal. Micron down 3.80% to $895.82, SK hynix down 5.34% and SOXX heading for a ninth straight loss show the pressure spreading. Nvidia, at $216.36 and down only 0.40%, shows that self-funded AI leaders are holding up far better than the rest.

The bear case is yields. At 5.09% for the 10-year and 5.43% for the 30-year, with core CPI at 0.3% monthly and a Fed that hiked in September, financing pressure is unlikely to ease soon. If inflation reports keep running hot, the December meeting could bring another rate increase, and the rotation away from growth would continue.

The bull case is breadth and the absence of fear. A VIX at 15.88, oil easing to $95.77, gold at $4,205.90 and four-to-one breadth do not look like a market heading for a broad decline. Warsh’s neutral tone and a likely October pause give investors time to see next week’s Big Tech earnings.

The verdict is mixed: bullish for the average stock and cash-generating businesses, bearish for chips and leveraged AI infrastructure, and neutral for the S&P 500 headline. The Dow’s 0.48% gain is the more accurate read of market health today. The Nasdaq’s 0.79% loss shows where risk is concentrated. Through the rest of Friday, the key levels are CoreWeave’s $60 floor, SOXX’s streak and a 10-year yield at 5.09%. If those hold, the rotation into broad cash-flow businesses can carry the market into next week’s earnings without hitting the headline index.

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