Ethereum Price Forecast – ETH-USD Struggles At $2,900 As ETF Outflows Fight Shrinking Supply

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Price At $2,900–$3,000 – Compression Before The Next Major Leg

Short-Term Snapshot For ETH-USD Around The $3,000 Threshold

Ethereum (ETH-USD) is trading in a tight band around the psychologically critical $3,000 handle after a clear rejection from the $3,400 area. Spot quotes have oscillated roughly between $2,801 and $3,040–$3,065 in recent sessions, with one recent daily range marked by a low near $2,916.22 and a high close to $3,040.72. Market capitalization sits around $360–365 billion, while 24-hour trading volume has fluctuated between about $23.5 billion and $26.5 billion, showing that participation remains robust even as direction cools.

The price is roughly 14% below the local peak near $3,400, and every attempt to sustain trade above $3,000–$3,050 has been sold into. At the same time, buyers consistently step in above $2,880–$2,900, preventing a clean breakdown. That compression is not noise; it is the market deciding whether ETH-USD resolves lower toward $2,250–$2,400, or builds a base for another push into the $3,500–$3,800 region in the coming months.

ETH-USD Technical Map: Triangle Breakdown Versus Mean-Reversion Risk

Structurally, ETH-USD has already triggered a bearish pattern. After topping near $3,400, price carved a symmetrical triangle and then broke below the lower trendline. The initial break was followed by a classic retest: ETH bounced back up, tagged the underside of the former support, and failed to reclaim it. This rejection confirms that what used to be support has flipped into resistance.

Using the height of the triangle, the measured move points at a downside target near $2,250, which corresponds to roughly a 25% decline from the $3,000 area if the pattern completes. Under pure technical rules this target remains active as long as ETH trades below the broken trendline and below the key moving averages clustering just above current price.

However, Ethereum has already produced a similar false breakdown in the past. In 2024, ETH briefly slipped under a comparable structure, then reversed aggressively higher once it reclaimed its main moving averages. The current setup leaves room for that kind of “failed breakdown” scenario. If ETH can recover the old triangle boundary and hold above it, the bear pattern is invalidated and short positions are forced to cover into strength.

This is why both sides are so aggressive at the current levels. For bears, the breakdown is clean and the $2,250 target is straightforward. For bulls, the risk–reward of a failed break with upside projections in the $7,500–$10,000 region in 2026 (as some institutional and on-chain forecasts suggest) justifies defending the $2,800–$2,900 band even under heavy pressure.

Intraday Structure In ETH-USD: $2,880 Support Against $3,050 Resistance

On the short-term charts, ETH-USD has already rolled over from a recovery leg that started at about $2,784 and topped near $3,040–$3,050. That move has been partially retraced, and price is now trading below both the broken intraday trendline and the 100-hour simple moving average, signaling that intraday momentum has flipped back in favor of sellers.

The crucial short-term levels are clear.

On the upside, the first resistance band sits around $2,980–$3,000, where price repeatedly stalls. Above that, $3,050 is the primary ceiling. That level not only marks the recent rejection high, it also aligns with the confluence of moving averages on higher time frames, making it an important line in the sand. A clean break and hourly close above $3,050 would expose $3,120, followed by a wider target zone in the $3,180–$3,200 region. Only above that area does the immediate pressure on bears become severe.

On the downside, the near-term pivot is $2,920. Beneath it, the first meaningful support sits around $2,880, which corresponds almost exactly to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $2,784 → $3,040 upswing. A decisive move below $2,880 opens the door toward $2,820, then $2,780, with a deeper “last defense” support near $2,740.

The indicators support this cautious stance. The hourly MACD is pushing deeper into the bearish zone, confirming building downside momentum, while the hourly RSI has slipped below 50, indicating that every bounce is being sold quicker than buyers can sustain it. As long as ETH stays below $3,000–$3,050, intraday structure favors a retest of $2,880–$2,820 rather than an immediate breakout.

Weekly Trend For ETH-USD: Below $3,050 And $3,515 Keeps Bulls Capped

The weekly perspective for ETH-USD explains why upside stalls so consistently under $3,100.

Price is sitting below the 9-week moving average near $3,050 and significantly below the 21-week moving average around $3,515. That combination is typical of a consolidation or corrective phase after a strong advance. The earlier peaks near $3,800 created a lower-high pattern, and subsequent weekly candles have failed to break that structure, confirming that sellers are still active at elevated levels.

Weekly RSI (14) hovers around 44–45, just under the neutral 50 line. This shows that neither side dominates completely, but the market is not in a strong bullish trend. The weekly MACD remains below its signal line, with the histogram in negative territory, reinforcing the view of a market that is digesting prior gains rather than embarking on a fresh impulsive rally.

A proprietary trend indicator like the Bull Bear Power Trend (BBPT) shows that bears have lost some of their earlier control, but bulls have not yet taken over. That is precisely what you see in price action: ETH trades above structural supports from earlier in the cycle but prints lower highs and fails to reclaim the major moving averages.

The weekly message is simple. As long as Ethereum remains below $3,050 on a weekly close, the medium-term trend remains capped. Only a sustained bid through $3,515 would shift the broader structure back toward a trending bullish phase, with room to revisit $3,800 and, beyond that, the higher institutional targets projected for 2026.

ETF Flows Into Ethereum (ETH-USD): $12.36 Billion Net Inflows, But January Sends A Warning

Beyond the chart, ETH-USD is increasingly driven by spot ETF flows. Since launch, Ethereum spot ETFs have attracted around $12.36 billion in cumulative net inflows, a substantial structural demand source that did not exist in previous cycles. That pipeline has provided a powerful backstop on larger dips and explains, in part, why selloffs into the $2,800–$2,900 zone are finding support.

However, the January 27 data show that the flows are not one-way. On that day, Ethereum ETFs collectively recorded a net outflow of about $63.53 million. BlackRock’s ETHA fund accounted for the largest share of that outflow, while vehicles like the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust saw modest inflows that were not large enough to offset the aggregate selling.

This pattern tells you two things. First, the structural story remains net positive, but the market is no longer in an early euphoria phase where capital only enters. Second, ETF demand can switch to the sidelines or even turn negative on a weekly basis when macro risk rises, as seen after the latest Fed meeting combined with rising geopolitical stress.

From a price-action standpoint, those flows align perfectly with the range. Persistent net inflows support the floor around $2,800–$2,900, but intermittent outflows or soft days in ETF demand help enforce the ceiling around $3,050–$3,200. Until the flow picture flips decisively back to heavy inflows, ETH-USD will continue to behave like a range asset, not a runaway trend.

Exchange Reserves And Staking: 36 Million+ ETH Locked, Spot Supply Shrinks

Parallel to ETFs, on-chain data for ETH-USD is unambiguous about one thing: liquid exchange supply is shrinking.

Sanbase numbers highlighted that the amount of Ethereum held directly on trading platforms fell from about 12.31 million ETH in July to around 8.15 million ETH now. Over the same period, the price has endured more than a 40% drawdown from its October highs, yet holders have continued to move coins away from exchanges, not back to them.

CryptoQuant data tracking “Ethereum: Exchange Reserve” across all exchanges over the last month shows the same direction at a larger scale. Reserves started the period near 16.72–16.85 million ETH, briefly popped back toward those highs at the very start of the year, and then slid steadily down to approximately 16.26 million ETH by late January. The sharpest drop came at the start of last week, when holdings fell to 16.33 million, marking the lowest level for the month, before drifting marginally lower toward the 16.25–16.26 million floor.

Opposite this decline in exchange balances, the staking side continues to expand. More than 36 million ETH is now staked, representing around 29% of total supply. The staking entry queue is heavily congested, with roughly 3.6 million ETH waiting to be staked and an estimated wait of about 63 days and 20 hours to enter. The exit queue is tiny by comparison, with only about 44,448 ETH queued to withdraw, which corresponds to less than a day’s wait.

Large on-chain players are reinforcing this imbalance. BitMine Technologies recently staked another 250,912 ETH, bringing its staked total above 2.5 million ETH, or about 61% of its holdings. In parallel, four staking-linked wallets pulled more than 26,000 ETH off Binance on a single day, likely allocating it into long-term staking strategies or cold storage rather than keeping it available to sell.

This combination of shrinking exchange reserves, expanding staked supply and persistent long queues for new validators means that the sellable float of ETH-USD is being reduced over time. While this does not prevent sharp corrections when leveraged positions unwind, it reinforces the idea that deep dips can meet real spot demand once short-term forced selling exhausts itself.

Macro And Fed Backdrop For ETH-USD: Fed On Hold, Iran Risk, And Risk-Off Rotation

Macroeconomic conditions are feeding directly into ETH-USD price action.

The latest Federal Reserve decision kept policy rates unchanged at the first meeting of the year. Chair Powell retained a cautious tone on inflation and avoided committing to rapid easing. Markets, however, remain skeptical about the Fed’s independence and timeline, especially with political pressure rising and an investigation clouding the institution’s leadership. This mistrust has weighed on the US Dollar more broadly, but it has not been enough to sustain a clean risk-on move in crypto after such a strong previous run.

For Bitcoin, the reaction has been straightforward: BTC-USD has slipped below $88,000 and remains under pressure, with ETF outflows and tariff headlines adding weight. Ethereum (ETH-USD) is tracking that risk-off tilt. FX and crypto desks describe a confluence of weak technicals and macro unease, where traders prefer to reduce exposure rather than aggressively add to long positions into the weekend.

On top of the Fed narrative, rising tensions between the US and Iran have capped risk appetite globally. Geopolitical stress tends to hit high-beta assets first, and ETH sits at the center of that spectrum. The result is exactly what the charts show: attempts to break above $3,000–$3,050 are quickly faded, while dips see measured but not panic buying above $2,880–$2,900.

This macro context matters for interpreting the technical patterns. The symmetrical triangle breakdown and the inability to reclaim the key moving averages are not happening in a vacuum; they are being reinforced by a cautious macro tape, softer ETF flows and a market that is already heavily positioned in crypto after a strong multi-month run.

Scenario Analysis For ETH-USD: Path To $2,250 Or Reclaim Toward $3,515 And Beyond

With the data on the table, ETH-USD is effectively trading between two well-defined scenarios.

In the bearish continuation case, the symmetrical triangle breakdown remains valid, the $3,050 ceiling holds, and ETF flows stay muted or negative. Under this path, a clean loss of $2,880 and then $2,820 opens a slide toward $2,780–$2,740. If sellers control that zone as well, the full triangle target around $2,250 comes back into play, especially if macro conditions deteriorate further or Bitcoin’s drop accelerates below the $85,000–$86,000 range. In that environment, leveraged longs could be forced to unwind, amplifying volatility.

In the alternative mean-reversion or failed-breakdown scenario, the current range resolves higher. ETH holds above $2,880–$2,900, ETF flows turn positive again, and spot demand from shrinking exchange reserves and staking continues absorbing supply. Price then grinds back through $3,000–$3,050, converts that zone into reliable support, and works toward the $3,150–$3,200 band highlighted on the daily chart. A weekly close above $3,515 would confirm that the correction from $3,800 has ended and would reopen the technical path toward the high-3,000s and, later in 2026, the institutional targets in the $7,500–$10,000 bracket.

Given the strong on-chain supply contraction, heavy staking, and large cumulative ETF inflows, the medium-to-long term skew still leans bullish. However, the presence of a valid breakdown pattern with a clear $2,250 lower target forces any serious analysis to recognize that the path to those higher projections may involve one more sharp flush lower before the next leg up.

ETH-USD Trading Strategy View: Levels For Bulls And Bears, And A Clear Verdict

From a trading and positioning standpoint, ETH-USD is not in the middle of nowhere. The key areas are known and backed by hard numbers.

Short-term, the market is defending $2,880–$2,900 and selling $3,000–$3,050. That range will break. If you see high-volume trade pushing through $3,050 and holding above the 200-3D EMA near $3,065, with daily closes sustained above that level, the probability of a failed breakdown rises sharply and the upside toward $3,150–$3,200 becomes attractive. If instead ETH loses $2,880, follows through below $2,820 and trades under $2,780, the market will be signaling that the triangle breakdown is extending toward the $2,400–$2,250 zone.

Structurally, shrinking exchange reserves from about 12.31 million ETH to 8.15 million ETH, more than 36 million ETH already staked (about 29% of total supply), a staking entry queue backed up with 3.6 million ETH and cumulative ETF net inflows around $12.36 billion all argue that deep dips are more likely to be accumulated than abandoned. At the same time, January’s $63.53 million spot ETF outflow, the rejection below multiple moving averages and the macro risk backdrop justify expecting volatility and a possible final shakeout.

For a multi-year horizon, ETH-USD at roughly $2,900–$3,000 justifies a Buy rating, with the understanding that the market can still probe lower toward $2,400–$2,250 before the next major uptrend. The supply profile, staking lock-up, on-chain behavior of large holders and the ETF infrastructure all support higher valuations over time. For short-term leveraged trading, however, the environment is closer to a speculative range with downside risk rather than a low-risk breakout, and any aggressive bullish positioning that ignores the $2,250 technical target is not respecting the current tape.

In simple terms, ETH-USD is a Buy for patient capital prepared to tolerate a possible drawdown into the mid-$2,000s, while short-term operators should treat the current band between $2,880 support and $3,050 resistance as a battlefield, not a comfort zone.

That's TradingNEWS