Solana Price Forecast; SOL-USD Critical $116–117 Support Stands Between Bulls and a $100 Flush

Solana (SOL-USD) At $116: Compression Before A Violent Move

Price Snapshot And Market Context For SOL-USD

Solana (SOL-USD) is trading around $116–117, with one feed showing $116.31, down roughly 7.0%–7.5% on the day and about -7.7% over the last week. Market cap stands near $65.84 billion, with 24-hour volume close to $5.9 billion, which is elevated enough to confirm that this is real repositioning, not illiquid drift. The broader crypto complex is risk-off: BTC-USD has slipped below roughly $84,000–$85,000, majors like ETH-USD and XRP-USD are under pressure, and sentiment has weakened after the Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% and reiterated a data-dependent stance. For SOL-USD, the message is that a high-beta asset is being repriced lower while global liquidity is paused, not expanding.

Trend Structure And Momentum Signals On SOL-USD

Structurally, SOL-USD is in a confirmed downtrend, printing lower highs and lower lows on the higher time frames. On the weekly chart, RSI sits around 36–40, just above oversold but well below the midline, a zone that historically points to seller exhaustion risk but not yet a momentum reversal. The MACD remains below the signal line on the daily and weekly views, which keeps the trend decisively bearish, yet the contracting negative histogram shows the downside impulse is slowing rather than accelerating. The Awesome Oscillator is still negative, but red bars are shrinking, echoing the same story: bears remain in control, but the aggression of the move is cooling. Importantly, the long-standing weekly trendline that had supported the move from the 2023–2024 expansion has been broken decisively below roughly $150, signaling that the prior secular uptrend has transitioned into a vulnerable corrective phase where every bounce is suspect.

Critical Support And Resistance Zones For SOL-USD

The immediate battlefield for SOL-USD sits around $116–117, which has acted as high-time-frame support multiple times, including the December 18 low and a recent Sunday defense. Current price action back into that band without a strong reaction shows that this demand is weakening, not strengthening, and repeated tests mechanically erode support. If $116 fails on a sustained daily close with real volume, the first logical downside waypoint is around $104, a prior weekly demand shelf, followed by the critical psychological zone at $100. The weekly picture from the trendline break suggests that a clean loss of $100 dramatically increases the probability of a fast slide toward $88–$95, where the last meaningful structural base from the 2024 expansion sits. If selling accelerates and macro risk-off persists, deeper targets such as $60 and even $30 cannot be dismissed as medium-term tail risks. On the upside, SOL-USD faces a dense resistance stack: the 50-day EMA around $133, the 100-day EMA around $144, and a clear supply band at $145–$148. Above that, heavy historic positioning in the $150–$180 region forms an on-chain high-volume node that will not be cleared without a sustained trend reversal, not just a short squeeze.

Derivatives Positioning Funding And Liquidations In SOL-USD

Derivatives data confirms that this drawdown in SOL-USD is being driven by aggressive position adjustment. SOL futures open interest has slipped about 1.40% over 24 hours to roughly $7.42 billion, signaling that leverage is being cut from the system. Long liquidations near $5.55 million versus short liquidations of about $1.34 million show that late bulls, not shorts, have been the side taking most of the pain, which is exactly what you expect in a controlled grind lower. The funding rate has flipped negative to around -0.0042%, meaning new money in perpetuals is paying to be short and confirming that short-bias is now dominant among traders. If SOL-USD breaks below $116 with open interest stabilizing or rising while funding stays negative, that would point to fresh short build-up into a potential capitulation move. If, instead, open interest keeps bleeding and funding normalizes back toward zero while price defends $116–117, that would indicate shorts are losing conviction and would increase the probability of a rebound toward $133–$145.

On-Chain Volume CVD And Accumulation Patterns Around SOL-USD

On-chain and order-flow metrics introduce nuance into the bearish picture for SOL-USD. Volume Bubble Maps across spot and futures show dense green clusters between roughly $110 and $150, indicating that large volumes are transacting in this cooling band, a behavior more consistent with supply absorption and quiet accumulation than with pure panic selling. Spot Taker CVD has turned positive and has trended upward since early January, signaling a Taker Buy–dominant environment in spot markets even as headlines and retail sentiment have turned negative. Futures Taker CVD has remained tilted to the buy side since around December 2025, pointing to sustained interest from larger, often more professional participants who are willing to lean long into weakness rather than chase shorts at the lows. At the same time, liquidity measures like Chaikin Money Flow on the higher time frame are around -0.19, confirming outflows from the asset class but not the kind of extreme liquidation that characterizes final capitulation. The weekly technical package with RSI near 36, a flattening MACD histogram, a still-negative yet improving Awesome Oscillator, and concentration of volume in a tight price band shows a market that is coiling for a move, not one that has already completed its repricing.

Validator Centralization Risk And Network Fundamentals For Solana

Away from the chart, network fundamentals for Solana introduce a structural overhang that markets are beginning to price into SOL-USD. The count of active validators has dropped to its lowest level since August 2021, at the very time when a maturing network should be broadening participation. While Ethereum now runs with well over 900,000 validators, Solana’s validator curve has turned down, and comments from independent operators point to clear economic reasons. Large validators are able to charge zero fees, attracting stake from delegators who simply chase the headline yield, while changes in reward matching and foundation support have eroded profitability for smaller operators. Without those incentives, many smaller validators have shut down or scaled back, causing stake to cluster increasingly in a narrow set of large nodes. This shift raises real decentralization concerns. For institutional allocators, a shrinking validator set and a perception of creeping centralization directly undercut the long-term investment case for SOL-USD, especially when compared with more distributed architectures. Combined with the multi-year trendline break below $150, the weakest validator count since 2021 supports a narrative where Solana risks sliding down the quality ladder exactly when large financial players are deciding which chains will anchor the next wave of DeFi and tokenized infrastructure.

Macro Rates And Policy Backdrop Around SOL-USD

Macro conditions are amplifying the volatility in SOL-USD rather than cushioning it. The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep the funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% on a 10–2 vote and to emphasize that inflation remains elevated while the labor market is stabilizing preserves the possibility of rate cuts later in 2026, but provides no immediate liquidity boost. Short-term, that has translated into a classic risk-off rotation: US equities have weakened, high-beta tech has been hit, and crypto has traded like leveraged macro beta, with SOL-USD underperforming majors. Secondary macro headlines such as rising geopolitical tensions and the lingering impact of US trade and tariff policy on risk appetite add to the cautious tone. At the same time, scheduling of future policy and regulatory meetings around digital assets, including discussions of broader market structure and frameworks like the so-called CLARITY efforts, are latent catalysts: a constructive outcome could unlock new institutional flows, while a restrictive posture would further depress appetite for names like SOL-USD which already carry architecture risk.

Scenario Map Bullish Path Versus Bearish Path For SOL-USD

From here, SOL-USD is boxed into a relatively clean scenario tree. On the bullish path, buyers defend $116–117 on a weekly closing basis, funding normalizes from the current -0.0042% region, long liquidations slow, and the positive Taker CVD regime continues. In that case, the first upside checkpoint is $135, where short-term resistance and the 50-day EMA converge. A sustained close above $135 opens a run at $145–$148 near the 100-day EMA, and if that band is absorbed with volume, price can push into the heavier on-chain accumulation zone around $150–$180. That move would likely be driven by a combination of macro relief, short covering, and follow-through from the wallets that have been accumulating between $110 and $150. On the bearish path, SOL-USD closes decisively below $116, dragging spot and futures volume with it, while funding remains negative and open interest stops shrinking. That configuration usually precedes a capitulation-style move, with stops and forced selling accelerating price into $104 and then toward the $100 psychological floor. If $100 fails, the weekly structure points next to $88–$95, and in a full de-risking cycle the market can probe as low as $60, or even $30, before a durable long-term base forms. Given the deteriorating validator distribution and Solana’s inability to print a higher high since the last peak above $150, the market currently leans closer to the bearish branch than the bullish one.

Final Stance On Solana (SOL-USD) Bearish Bias And Sell Rating

Taking all dimensions together – price action around $116–117, the broken three-year trendline below $150, the downtrend in validator count to its weakest level since August 2021, the negative funding near -0.0042%, long liquidations of roughly $5.55 million versus short liquidations of about $1.34 million, open interest around $7.42 billion drifting lower, and the structural risk of further centralization – the current configuration for Solana (SOL-USD) is bearish with asymmetric downside if $100 fails. The on-chain accumulation between $110 and $150 and positive Taker CVD argue that strong hands are active and a sharp squeeze toward $135–$150 is possible, but that would be a counter-trend move inside a damaged structure, not yet a confirmed new bull leg. From a risk–reward standpoint, at ~$116–117 the asset screens as a Sell / underweight, with the burden of proof squarely on the bulls to reclaim at least $135 and then $150 before SOL-USD can earn a neutral or constructive rating again.

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