EUR/USD Price Forecast - Eur Holds the 1.17 Zone as ECB Meeting and NFP Pull the Pair Toward 1.20

EUR/USD Price Today: Bulls Defend 1.17 as Fed Cuts Clash With ECB Stability

EUR/USD Spot Snapshot And Intraday Structure

EUR/USD is trading around the 1.1730–1.1750 band after pulling back from last week’s spike toward 1.1760–1.1762, the highest area in roughly two months. The pair briefly pushed above 1.1750 before slipping back toward 1.1730–1.1740, but price remains clearly above last week’s lows and well above the mid-November base. On intraday charts, EUR/USD is holding above the 50-hour EMA near 1.1726 and the 100-hour EMA around 1.1705, which keeps short-term control with buyers, not fresh dollar longs.

Fed Cuts, Weaker DXY And US Data Risk For EUR/USD

The macro backdrop for EUR/USD starts with the Fed. The US central bank has already delivered its third 25 bp cut of 2025, taking the funds range down to 3.50%–3.75%. Futures now price roughly a 76% probability that rates stay unchanged at the January 2026 meeting, compared with about 70% before the most recent decision. That shift weighs on the dollar. The US Dollar Index is trading near 98.35 inside a clear descending channel, below its 50-EMA around 99.20 and 100-EMA near 99.30, signaling that sellers still dominate while any rallies remain corrective. Immediate DXY support sits around 98.10 and then 97.80, with 97.45 as a deeper target if selling extends. As long as the index stays capped under 98.95–99.30, EUR/USD has room to stay supported above 1.17.

ECB Stability Premium And 2026 Rate Divergence

On the European side, the single currency is benefiting from a relative stability premium. Markets see the ECB much closer to the end of its easing cycle than the Fed, and in some scenarios even flirting with limited tightening in 2026 if inflation proves sticky. While the Fed has already cut three times and remains exposed to softer US data, the base case for the ECB is to keep policy largely unchanged next year, with a rate cut almost entirely priced out. That divergence supports EUR on dips. The move back into the 1.17 handle effectively unwinds much of the risk-off decline seen during the autumn and now looks more like a controlled bullish correction than a one-off squeeze.

Trend Structure, Momentum And Key Technical Levels For EUR/USD

Technically, EUR/USD remains in an upward corrective phase with a clear bullish bias. On the daily chart, the pair recently tagged resistance around 1.1762 and is now fluctuating near 1.1733–1.1750. The 14-day RSI has pushed toward 67, just under the 70 overbought threshold, confirming strong upward momentum without an obvious blow-off. MACD lines are sloping higher, backing a continuation of the move as long as macro data does not reverse the rate narrative. On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is trading above the 50-EMA around 1.1685–1.1726 and the 100-EMA near 1.1620–1.1705. The prior multi-week ascending structure has already been broken to the upside, with the old breakout band around 1.1720 now serving as first support. RSI on this timeframe sits roughly in the 57–65 band, signaling persistent bullish momentum without an extreme reading.

Support Zones: Where EUR/USD Dips May Attract Buyers

Support levels are tightly layered and well-defined. Immediate support sits at 1.1720–1.1725, the former breakout zone that price is currently retesting from above. Below that, several models highlight 1.1707–1.1690 as the next key band, combining Fibonacci structure with recent intraday lows. The broader daily map then steps down into 1.1690, 1.1620, and 1.1540 as a deeper support ladder if volatility accelerates. One tactical framework you provided suggests a buy zone at 1.1640 with an upside target at 1.1850 and a protective stop at 1.1580, which effectively turns the 1.1640–1.1580 pocket into the line where the medium-term bullish view would be reassessed.

Resistance Zones: Where EUR/USD Rallies May Stall First

On the topside, the market is watching a cluster of nearby resistance levels. The latest push stalled in the 1.1760–1.1763 region, which now marks the first ceiling. Above that, a tactical plan you gave flags 1.1810 as a sell zone, with a downside target at 1.1500 and a stop at 1.1900, defining 1.1810–1.1900 as the first major resistance band to beat. The broader daily structure then shows incremental resistance at 1.1790, 1.1830, and 1.1900, with the psychologically important 1.2000 level acting as a larger 2026 objective if the euro can sustain closes above 1.1800. For now, dips are being bought above 1.1690–1.1720, while rallies into 1.1760–1.1810 still face profit-taking and tactical shorts.

Dollar Index, Risk Sentiment And Cross-Asset Context For EUR/USD

Cross-asset behavior reinforces the current EUR/USD setup. The US Dollar Index continues to respect its descending channel, pressured by the 50-EMA near 99.20 and 100-EMA near 99.30, with sellers defending every approach to 98.95–99.30. At the same time, global risk assets are not flashing crisis: US and European indices are trading near highs, and gold is holding above 4,300 dollars per ounce while probing resistance toward 4,345–4,381, a configuration that fits a regime of policy and currency hedging rather than forced deleveraging. In that environment, a softer dollar coexisting with firm risk sentiment typically supports EUR/USD staying above 1.17 unless a shock data print flips flows back into USD cash.

Event Risk Radar: Data And Central Banks Driving The Next Move

Near-term direction in EUR/USD is concentrated around a few binary macro events. US labor data, including Nonfarm Payrolls, average hourly earnings, and the unemployment rate, will decide whether Fed-cut expectations ease or intensify. Strong employment and wage numbers would push yields higher, give the dollar a floor, and open a test of 1.1705, 1.1685, and potentially the 1.1650–1.1640 band. Weaker data would drag yields and the dollar lower again, giving EUR/USD another shot at 1.1760, 1.1790, and possibly 1.1810. The ECB meeting and press conference then determine whether the euro can keep its policy advantage. A message of patience with no renewed easing bias would validate the idea that rate cuts are off the table in 2026, giving buyers more confidence to push toward 1.1830–1.1900; any unexpected dovish shift would cap the pair within the 1.1690–1.1810 consolidation corridor.

Final View On EUR/USD Bias: Buy, Sell Or Hold

Stacking everything together — Fed at 3.50%–3.75% after three cuts, markets assigning a 76% probability of no change in January 2026, DXY stuck in a downtrend around 98.35, EUR/USD trading above the 50-EMA near 1.1685 and the 100-EMA near 1.1620, with RSI hovering between 57 and 67 — the balance of evidence points to a bullish bias. The structure favors treating pullbacks into 1.1720–1.1690 and, more aggressively, into 1.1640 as opportunities to position for a move toward 1.1790–1.1850 and potentially 1.1900–1.2000 if macro data and ECB communication cooperate. The bullish case only starts to materially weaken if EUR/USD breaks and holds below 1.1680 first and then 1.1620, which would signal that the corrective uptrend from late November has run its course and that the pair is shifting back into a deeper retracement phase.

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