Gold ($4,621) Stalls Below $4,698 as $40T Debt Fuels the Debasement Trade — Upside to $4,970

Gold traded at $4,621.08 on Wednesday, down 0.75% on the session, after posting a fresh three-month high at $4,697 the previous day. Comex futures held better, printing 4,679.00 for a loss of 15.50 or 0.33%, having earlier shown 4,682.80 at −11.70 or 0.25%. The intraday swing was wide: a run to $4,655.95 in Asian hours, a slide toward the $4,620 handle through the European session, and a hold above both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages the entire way.

Tuesday's print is the reference. Spot climbed 1% to $4,695.31 on August 24, with intraday trading pushing as high as $4,738 at points and the bulk of the session held between $4,650 and $4,697. That capped a weekly advance above 5%. The metal now sits 1.6% below that high after two sessions of digestion.

The month has been extraordinary. Gold started August near $4,000 and has gained 13% to 15%, the best monthly performance since January. The one-week gain runs 4.43%, the one-month gain 13.00%, and the twelve-month gain 37.19%. The 52-week range spans $3,437.03 to $5,602.23, which frames exactly how violent 2026 has been in both directions.

Here is the thesis this piece will drive: this is a fiscal trade, not an inflation trade. Gold did not move from roughly $3,900 in July to $4,697 in August because consumer prices accelerated. It moved because the U.S. Treasury started buying its own long-dated bonds against a debt stack that just crossed $40 trillion, and the market read that as a solvency signal rather than a liquidity operation. Gold is pricing the credibility of U.S. fiscal policy.

That distinction explains Wednesday's price action perfectly. July PCE printed hotter than expected on the headline at 3.7%, and gold fell. An inflation hedge rallies on hot inflation. A debasement hedge falls on hot inflation, because hot inflation means the Fed stays restrictive, real yields stay elevated, and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset goes up.

The setup into Friday is unusually clean. Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote on August 28. The symposium runs August 27 through 29. Every level below $4,775.19 and above $4,411.62 is a holding pattern until that speech lands.

The Buyback Decision That Added $700 to Gold in Three Weeks

The catalyst is precise and dated. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated government bonds, raising the cap from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion. The change covers the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year maturity sectors, takes effect September 9, and runs through the current refunding quarter ending November 4.

Treasury framed the expansion as a response to strong dealer demand rather than a shift in debt management policy. Markets read it as evidence of fiscal pressure and potential currency debasement risk. The dollar slipped to multi-month lows within days. Yields dropped: the 30-year fell more than four basis points to 5.234% and the 10-year more than three basis points to 4.704% on the initial move, then extended lower through Tuesday, when the 10-year lost more than seven basis points to 4.625%, the 30-year eased three basis points to 5.2004%, and the 2-year slipped to 4.2166%.

Two transmission channels ran simultaneously. Lower nominal yields cut the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays nothing. A weaker dollar makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for every buyer holding another currency. Gold caught both at once, which is why the move was vertical rather than gradual.

Reports that Treasury could tap its nearly $1 trillion General Account to fund the purchases amplified everything on August 24, the same headline that carried Bitcoin above $81,000 and gave the Dow a third straight winning session.

The intervention is contested at the highest level. Stanley Druckenmiller characterized the operation as price management rather than liquidity management, arguing official intervention belongs in genuine breakdowns like March 2020 or September 2022 rather than a functioning market. That criticism is itself bullish for gold — a bond market that suspects its own sovereign of yield capping prices the currency lower, not the bonds higher.

The mechanical risk cuts against gold. If the buyback expansion succeeds in suppressing long-end yields without triggering further dollar weakness, the debasement premium compresses. Wednesday's move from $4,697 to $4,621 is a small down payment on that scenario.

PCE at 3.7% Was the Wrong Print for Gold and the Right One for the Fed

The July PCE report landed at 12:30 GMT and gold sold off through it.

The headline index rose 0.2% month over month and held at 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% consensus and unchanged from June. Core PCE rose 0.2% and held at 3.3%, matching expectations exactly. Personal income climbed 0.4% against a 0.3% estimate. Personal spending rose 0.2%, but adjusted for inflation, real consumption was essentially flat, rising less than 0.1% after a 0.4% June gain. The personal saving rate rebuilt to 3.0% from a four-year low of 2.6%.

The composition mattered. Goods prices fell 0.1% on the month, dragged by a 2.7% decline in gasoline and energy-related goods and a 0.9% drop in furnishings. Services rose 0.3%, pushed by a 1.2% increase in financial services and insurance and a 0.3% gain in housing.

Core PCE has now printed 3.3% in April, 3.4% in May, 3.3% in June and 3.3% in July. Four months, zero net movement, and a persistent 130-basis-point gap to the Fed's 2% target.

That reading is precisely wrong for gold and precisely right for a Fed that wants to sit still. The upside headline surprise applied immediate downward pressure on the metal, since persistent inflation supports keeping rates elevated. The in-line core reading prevented a larger break, because it does not force a hawkish repricing.

The Dollar Index firmed 0.13% to 99.03 on the print. EUR/USD held lower ground near 1.1650. GBP/USD traded below 1.3650, eroding part of the prior session's gains while staying within striking distance of a six-month top. Silver fell 0.28%. Every dollar-sensitive asset moved the same direction.

The Q2 GDP second estimate published the same morning held real growth at 1.5% annualized, unrevised, with the quarterly PCE price index revised up 0.2 percentage point to 5.3% and quarterly core revised up 0.2 point to 3.6%. Corporate profits increased $400.9 billion against $74.4 billion in Q1. July durable goods orders ran 1.1% against a 0.5% estimate at $339.3 billion.

Solid growth, stalled inflation, accelerating profits. That is a data set that keeps real yields elevated, which is the single most reliable headwind gold faces.

$40 Trillion in Federal Debt and a 30-Year That Touched 5.331%

The structural driver underneath everything is the fiscal arithmetic, and it does not respond to a single PCE print.

U.S. federal debt recently surpassed $40 trillion. The July federal deficit registered its widest monthly total since March 2021. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.331% last week, the highest level since June 2007 and a 19-year peak. Government borrowing costs across the globe hit multi-year highs in the same window.

That combination — record debt stock, widening deficits, and a long end demanding the highest term premium in nearly two decades — is the reason the buyback announcement moved gold $700 rather than $70. A Treasury that needs to intervene in its own long-bond market is signalling that organic demand at current yields is insufficient. Gold prices that signal directly.

Tuesday's relief rally in bonds does not resolve it. The 30-year at 5.2004% is 12.6 basis points below the 19-year high, which is a reprieve rather than a resolution. Buybacks funded from the General Account address the flow, not the stock. Supply keeps arriving. Inflation has stopped closing the gap to target. Term premium keeps rebuilding.

The Canada trade escalation adds to the fiscal and inflation risk on the margin. Beginning September 8, Canada charges its own importers 15%, 25% and 50% across roughly 700 lines of American goods, covering approximately $20 billion in trade and targeting steel, aluminum, dairy and seafood. That followed additional 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian motor vehicles, alcohol and dairy. Tariff-driven input costs are precisely the kind of pressure that keeps core services inflation sticky.

The counterweight is energy. WTI dropped below $80 on hopes of a Hormuz reopening and U.S.-Iran de-escalation, after Tuesday's 3.1% settlement decline to $82.36 and Brent's 3.9% drop to $88.58. Cheaper crude mechanically pulls the next two headline inflation prints lower, which reduces the near-term inflation argument for gold while doing nothing to the fiscal argument.

That split is the entire debate. Gold's inflation case is weakening. Gold's solvency case is not.

Gold ETFs Took 46.7 Tonnes and $6.4 Billion — the Biggest Week in Ten Months

The flow data confirms that institutional money moved, and moved fast.

Gold-backed ETFs attracted inflows of 46.7 metric tonnes worth $6.4 billion last week, the largest weekly demand in ten months, with North American and European-listed funds leading. SPDR Gold Trust recorded approximately $637 million in net inflows on August 7 alone, well before the Treasury announcement, which suggests the turn began with the soft jobs, CPI and PPI prints earlier in the month rather than with the buyback news.

The reversal is significant because of what preceded it. Gold ETF investors recorded 45 tonnes of net outflows during Q2 2026, concentrated in North American markets. The category spent the quarter shedding metal while prices fell from above $5,400 in early 2026 toward $3,900 by July. Retail and institutional fund investors sold the entire drawdown.

Now they are buying it back, and the flow of $6.4 billion in a single week against 45 tonnes of outflows across an entire quarter shows how sharp the reversal has been. That is momentum capital, and momentum capital leaves as quickly as it arrives.

The mechanics matter for price. ETF creations require the sponsor to buy physical metal, so inflows translate directly into demand rather than paper positioning. A week of 46.7 tonnes represents roughly $6.4 billion of forced buying at prevailing prices. That is the marginal bid that carried gold from $4,450 to $4,697.

The vulnerability is symmetry. If Warsh delivers a hawkish message on Friday, or if the September FOMC signals a hike, the same funds that added 46.7 tonnes in a week can reverse it in two. Gold's Q2 experience is the template: 45 tonnes out while the price fell 30% from its high.

For the forecast, ETF flow is the highest-frequency confirmation signal available. Continued weekly inflows above 20 tonnes keep $4,775 in play. A single week of net outflows puts the 38.2% retracement at $4,580.10 under immediate pressure.

Central Banks Bought a Record 288.9 Tonnes in Q2 While Everyone Else Sold

The structural floor under this market has nothing to do with the Treasury or Jackson Hole.

Central banks purchased a quarterly record 288.9 tonnes in Q2 2026. Total H1 2026 purchases reached 345 tonnes, meaning Q1 contributed only about 56 tonnes and the second quarter accelerated more than fivefold. That acceleration happened while gold prices were falling toward the July low near $3,900.

The asymmetry is the entire structural argument. Sovereign buyers accumulated at a record pace precisely during the window when ETF investors were dumping 45 tonnes and global consumption was collapsing. Central banks bought the drawdown. Everyone else sold it.

That behavior reflects reserve strategy rather than price speculation. Central banks diversify away from dollar-denominated reserves when they perceive fiscal or geopolitical risk to the issuer, and a $40 trillion debt stack combined with a Treasury intervening in its own bond market is exactly the condition that accelerates that diversification. The buying is price-sensitive at the margin — elevated prices have historically slowed the pace — but it does not stop.

For price mechanics, sovereign demand functions as a floor rather than a ceiling-breaker. Central banks do not chase. They accumulate on weakness, which means their bid concentrates in the zones where price falls rather than where it rises. That is why gold's drawdowns in 2026 found buyers near $3,900 and why the $4,338.71 to $4,411.62 band below current price has structural support that pure technical analysis would not identify.

The combination now in place is the most constructive configuration gold has had all year: record sovereign accumulation providing the floor, and a $6.4 billion weekly ETF bid providing the momentum. Those two forces have not been aligned at any point in 2026 until this month.

The limit is that sovereign buying is slow and quarterly. It will not defend $4,600 this week. It will defend $4,000 over six months.

Physical Demand Is the Hole in the Bull Case

The weakest part of this rally deserves direct treatment: almost none of it is physical.

Global gold consumption in Q2 2026 fell to its lowest level since late 2021. Jewelry buying weakened materially. Gold ETFs recorded 45 tonnes of net outflows over the same quarter. Retail and investment interest was subdued across the board while central banks were setting a purchase record.

That divergence means the August advance is speculative and policy-driven rather than demand-driven. Price rose 13% to 15% in a month during which the physical market was contracting. A rally built on macro positioning rather than consumption is structurally fragile, because positioning unwinds and consumption does not.

The 14% to 15% August gain creates its own risk. Profit-taking after a move of that size is the default outcome, and Wednesday's slide from $4,697 to $4,621 is the first evidence of it. The trigger does not need to be bearish news. It only needs the absence of new bullish news, which is exactly what a Jackson Hole speech framed as a credibility event rather than a rate-signalling event delivers.

The counterargument is that gold's marginal price is set by financial demand, not jewelry demand, and has been for years. In a world where a single week of ETF creations moves 46.7 tonnes and central banks move 288.9 tonnes in a quarter, Indian wedding-season offtake is a rounding error on price formation. That is largely correct, and it is why gold can rally 15% with consumption at a five-year low.

It is also why the drawdowns are violent. Physical demand cushions declines by absorbing supply at lower prices. When jewelry buying is at its weakest since late 2021, that cushion is thin, and price gaps rather than grinds.

Practical read for the forecast: the physical hole does not cap the upside while the fiscal narrative is intact. It significantly deepens the downside if the narrative breaks.

Daily RSI 68.77 and the 38.2% Retracement at $4,580.10

The daily chart shows a market that is stretched without being broken.

XAU/USD at $4,621.08 sits well above the 20-period EMA at $4,411.62 — a gap of $209.46, or 4.75%. Price also trades above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,580.10 by $40.98, and above the 23.6% retracement at $4,338.71 by $282.37. The structure is intact and the near-term bias remains upward.

Daily RSI reads 68.77, flirting with the 70 overbought threshold without crossing it. That is momentum that is strong and increasingly stretched — enough to sustain a continuation, not enough to force one. The weekly RSI sits near 60, which leaves considerably more room before the higher timeframe reaches levels historically associated with extended pauses.

The shorter-horizon picture is weaker. Gold slipped below the lower trendline of a recently formed bullish channel, and price is consolidating just above the 50 EMA at $4,634 while sitting below the 100 EMA at $4,593 on that same reading — a configuration that puts current price inside a compression zone rather than trending through it. The intraday RSI at 45 has pushed into neutral-to-weak territory. Price has repeatedly failed to break above the $4,673 to $4,698 resistance band, and three failed attempts at the same ceiling is a signal in its own right.

The weekly structure is unambiguously constructive. The rising 100 SMA and the slower 200 SMA both sit well below current prices. The weekly pivot point sits at $3,829, a full $792 beneath spot. First weekly resistance is at $5,043.63.

Reconciling the timeframes: the weekly chart says a major trend reversal is underway with room to run. The daily chart says momentum is stretched and needs digestion. The intraday chart says the immediate direction is lower until $4,673 breaks. All three can be true simultaneously, and they typically are at exactly this stage of a recovery.

The one number that resolves it is $4,580.10. Above it, everything constructive stays constructive. Below it, the daily structure begins failing.

The Upside Ladder: $4,775.19, $4,970.29 and the $5,601.87 Cycle High

The resistance structure above current price is defined by Fibonacci retracements of the entire 2026 decline, and the levels are widely spaced.

Immediate resistance sits at $4,673 to $4,698, the band that capped Tuesday's three-month high at $4,697 and rejected price on multiple attempts. Clearing it requires a daily close above $4,698, and given the $4,738 intraday spike on August 24 already probed above that zone and failed, the break needs volume rather than a wick.

The first meaningful target is the 50.0% retracement at $4,775.19. That represents 3.34% upside from $4,621.08 and marks the midpoint of the entire drawdown from the cycle high to the July low. Fifty-percent retracements act as decision points rather than terminal levels — markets that clear them tend to extend, markets that reject them tend to retest the origin.

Above that, the 61.8% retracement at $4,970.29 sits 7.56% higher and carries the psychological weight of the $5,000 handle immediately behind it. The weekly first resistance pivot at $5,043.63 sits just beyond, creating a cluster between $4,970 and $5,044 that would represent the most serious technical test of the recovery.

Further out, the 78.6% retracement at $5,248.05 and the cycle high reference at $5,601.87 define the extremes. Reaching $5,601.87 requires 21.2% additional upside and would mark a full recovery of the 2026 decline.

The realistic near-term path stops at $4,775.19. Gold has gained 13% to 15% in August, daily RSI reads 68.77, physical demand is at a five-year low, and the metal just failed three times at $4,698. Adding another 3.3% into that configuration requires a specific catalyst, and the only one on the calendar is Warsh delivering something the market reads as dovish on Friday.

What would genuinely open $4,970 is not a rate signal. It is a fiscal signal — further Treasury intervention, a deficit surprise, or a failed long-bond auction. Those are the events that price debasement rather than policy.

Downside Structure: $4,580, $4,411.62 and the $4,338.71 Demand Shelf

The support map is tighter than the resistance map, which is what happens after a vertical advance.

Immediate support sits at $4,606, then $4,573 and $4,545 on the intraday structure. The critical daily level is the 38.2% retracement at $4,580.10, currently $40.98 below spot. Gold holding above it preserves the entire bullish daily configuration. Losing it on a closing basis is the first genuine failure signal.

Below $4,580.10, the next reference is the 100 EMA at $4,593 — which sits above the retracement, creating a compressed band between roughly $4,573 and $4,606 where several methodologies converge. A clean break through that band accelerates because it removes multiple supports simultaneously.

The 20-period EMA at $4,411.62 is the real test. That is 4.53% below current price and represents where a normal trend pullback terminates within an intact uptrend. Gold has not touched it during the August advance, which is itself a measure of how vertical the move has been. A retest there would be constructive rather than damaging, provided it holds.

The deeper demand area is the 23.6% retracement at $4,338.71, sitting 6.11% below spot. That level combined with the record central bank accumulation pace makes the $4,338 to $4,412 band the zone where structural buyers reappear. Sovereign reserve managers accumulated aggressively while prices were near $3,900 in Q2, and there is no reason to assume they would decline metal $400 above that.

The scenario that produces a test of $4,338.71 is specific: Warsh signals the Fed is prepared to hike, the dollar rips through 100 on the index, the 30-year retreats from 5.20% toward 5.00% on genuine confidence rather than intervention, and ETF flows reverse. That is four things going right for the dollar simultaneously, which is not the base case but is far from impossible given a December hike is already fully priced by money markets.

Practical framework: $4,580.10 is the line for anyone long the August breakout. $4,411.62 is the level that determines whether this was a trend change or a bear-market rally.

Warsh at Jackson Hole Is a Credibility Test, Not a Rate Signal

Friday, August 28 is the single most consequential scheduled event for gold this week, and the framing matters more than the content.

Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote. Strategists have flagged the gathering as a credibility event rather than a rate-signalling one — a distinction with direct price implications. Rate signals move the front end and the dollar. Credibility signals move the long end and the debasement premium, which is what gold is actually trading.

Warsh faces a genuine balancing act: defending Fed independence and the price-stability mandate while providing greater clarity on the reaction function, all without abandoning his stated preference for less forward guidance. The two-day decline in the 30-year yield offers only a reprieve, not a resolution, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's decision to expand long-bond buybacks is an executive-branch attempt to calm a market that the central bank does not control.

That tension is the trade. A Fed chair who defends independence forcefully while acknowledging that fiscal policy is driving the long end validates gold's entire thesis. A chair who signals the Fed will respond to sticky 3.3% core inflation with tightening compresses the debasement premium and pushes gold toward $4,411.62.

The rate math going in is muddled and the readings conflict. September hike odds sit near 38% on one measure, with a roughly 61.6% probability the Fed holds. Odds fell from 50% to 31% earlier in August after soft jobs, CPI and PPI prints. Money markets separately have a December hike fully priced. The funds target is 3.50% to 3.75% after a 9-3 hold on July 29, the fifth consecutive meeting without a move, with dissents from Hammack, Kashkari and Logan.

The September 15–16 FOMC is the follow-through event. Between now and then, gold has one CPI report and one employment report to trade.

For positioning, the asymmetry favors caution into Friday. Gold has already priced a substantial amount of fiscal anxiety. It has priced very little hawkishness.

Positioning Flipped: 16% of Managers Now Call Gold Undervalued

Sentiment turned before price did, and the magnitude of the shift is measurable.

The latest Global Fund Manager Survey showed a net 16% of managers viewing gold as undervalued — the highest reading since March 2023 and up sharply from just 6% in July. That is a near-tripling of institutional conviction inside a single month, and it happened while gold was still trading near $4,000.

That shift explains the mechanics of the August advance better than any single catalyst. Professional money decided gold was cheap at $4,000 after a 30% drawdown from above $5,400, then the Treasury buyback announcement provided the trigger to act. The $6.4 billion of ETF inflows in the week ending August 21 is that decision showing up as flow.

The commentary around it has been blunt. The argument circulating among gold bulls is that with gold at $4,600, silver near $70, oil above $87 and Bitcoin spiking above $79,000 simultaneously, the market has concluded the Fed has lost credibility on returning inflation to 2%, and that Treasury made clear the Fed will choose inflation over fiscal discipline. Investors are choosing their preferred hedge. Gold, silver and Bitcoin all ripped in the same window for the same reason.

That cross-asset confirmation is the strongest evidence the debasement thesis is real rather than a gold-specific story. Bitcoin gained 23.6% in its strongest week since March 2023, tagging $81,255. Silver approached $70. Copper surged to an all-time high of $6.71. Four unrelated assets with one common characteristic — scarcity — all repriced within days of the same fiscal announcement.

The risk in a sentiment flip this fast is that it is now partially spent. A net 16% undervalued reading from 6% means the easy repositioning is done. The marginal manager who was going to add gold has added it. Extending from here requires either new money or higher conviction from existing holders, and both are harder to source after a 15% monthly gain.

From $5,602 to $3,900 to $4,621 — Placing This in the 2026 Cycle

Context is what separates a recovery from a reversal, and gold's 2026 has been brutal in both directions.

The metal peaked above $5,400 in early 2026, with the 52-week high at $5,602.23 and the cycle high reference at $5,601.87. It then slid toward $3,900 by July — a decline of roughly 30% from the peak and a move that took eight months. The 52-week low sits at $3,437.03.

From the July trough, gold has recovered to $4,621.08, an advance of approximately 18.5%. It remains 17.5% below the cycle high. The year-to-date change sits at 6.52%, and the twelve-month change at 37.19% — meaning gold is still substantially higher than a year ago despite spending most of 2026 falling.

That sequencing places the current move precisely. This is a recovery inside a completed drawdown, not a fresh breakout to new highs. The metal has retraced 38.2% of the decline and is testing whether it can reach the 50% level at $4,775.19. Nothing about the price structure yet confirms a new uptrend; what it confirms is that the downtrend has stopped.

The comparison to prior cycles is instructive on magnitude. Gold rallied 26% in a prior year to record levels, which slowed central bank buying without stopping it. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes worth roughly $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual purchase since records began, and have continued expanding reserves since. The 288.9-tonne Q2 2026 record fits that multi-year pattern.

The forecast implications are two-sided. A retracement rally that stalls at the 50% level and rolls over back toward $4,338.71 would be entirely normal price behavior and would not invalidate the longer-term structural case. A retracement that clears $4,775.19 and extends toward $4,970.29 changes the character of the move from recovery to trend.

Institutional multi-quarter frameworks generally remain constructive, with several targets at or above current levels under supportive macro conditions. Near-term paths stay hostage to data and policy signals — which is a precise description of a market waiting for Friday.

Price Forecast and Verdict: $4,775 Base Case, $4,970 on a Break, $4,411 If the Bid Fades

The verdict is constructive with a hard technical invalidation, and the risk skews modestly lower over the next week.

The base case is consolidation between $4,580.10 and $4,698 through the Jackson Hole window. Gold at $4,621.08 sits inside that band. The floor is the 38.2% retracement, the ceiling is the resistance zone that has now rejected price three times. Daily RSI at 68.77 with an intraday reading at 45 argues for time-based digestion rather than a further leg immediately, and a 13% to 15% August gain does not typically extend without a pause.

The bull case requires a daily close above $4,698 on expanding volume, ideally with a fourth consecutive week of ETF inflows above 20 tonnes. That opens the 50% retracement at $4,775.19 first, then the $4,970.29 to $5,043.63 cluster where the 61.8% retracement and the weekly first resistance pivot converge. Reaching $5,000 demands 8.2% additional upside and needs a fiscal catalyst — further Treasury intervention, a deficit surprise, or a long-bond auction that fails to clear — rather than a rate signal.

The bear case triggers on a close below $4,580.10. That exposes the compressed support band at $4,545 to $4,573, then the 20-period EMA at $4,411.62 for a 4.53% decline, and finally the 23.6% retracement at $4,338.71 for 6.11%. The scenario requires Warsh signalling tightening resolve, the Dollar Index clearing 100 from 99.03, and ETF flows reversing — three conditions, all plausible given money markets have a December hike fully priced.

Weighting them: gold has run 15% in a month with physical consumption at its lowest since late 2021, jewelry demand contracting, RSI stretched, and three failed attempts at $4,698. Against that, central banks bought a record 288.9 tonnes in Q2, ETFs absorbed 46.7 tonnes and $6.4 billion in a single week, federal debt crossed $40 trillion, the 30-year sits at 5.2004% after touching a 19-year high of 5.331%, and a net 16% of fund managers now call gold undervalued. The structural bid is the strongest it has been all year and the tactical setup is the most stretched — hold $4,580.10 and this recovery is intact with $4,775.19 as the target, lose it and $4,411.62 comes fast.

That's TradingNEWS