Gold Clears $4,424 As In-Line Inflation Kills The September Hike Trade

Gold did what Bitcoin refused to do with the July CPI print. XAU/USD ripped to $4,424.44, up 1.24% on the session, after the data landed exactly on consensus and traders extended the rate-relief trade that started with the July payrolls miss. December futures pushed to $4,497.20, up $56.10 or 1.26%, having traded at $4,465.20 and $4,472.40 in earlier premarket prints before the release cleared.

The metal opened Asian trade at $4,387, up 0.5%, and had regained the $4,400 handle by the European session at $4,398.04 after finding buyers near $4,350. It closed the loop by taking out Tuesday's high.

That matters because Tuesday was a rejection. Gold hit a ten-week high of $4,435 in the Asian session, failed to hold it, and closed lower at $4,381, down 0.18% on the day. The rejection did not produce sustained selling. Twenty-four hours later, price is back above where it broke down, and the failure has been erased.

The performance table frames the move. Gold is up 1.16% on the day, 9.09% on the week, and 8.09% on the month, with a 30.40% gain over 12 months against a 1.92% year-to-date change. Parallel measurement puts the one-month advance at 10.56% and the annual gain at 31.82%. Last week alone delivered 7%.

The thesis is simple and it is structural. Gold has three independent bid sources operating at the same time: the September rate-relief trade, the Hormuz risk premium with Brent at $90, and official-sector accumulation led by a Chinese central bank that just posted its largest monthly purchase in nearly three years. None of those three depends on the other two. That redundancy is why every dip since August 7 has been bought inside 24 hours.

The obstacle is one number: the 200-day SMA at $4,500.55. That average sits 1.72% above spot and it has not been reclaimed since gold rolled over from its January record. A daily close above it converts a two-month bounce into a trend resumption and puts $4,589 in play. A rejection there hands the tape back to the $4,388.40 to $4,356.70 demand cluster and leaves the metal range-bound into the September 15–16 FOMC.

The Print Removed The Hike Risk Without Killing The Inflation Story

The July data delivered the ideal combination for bullion: soft enough to cap the Fed, hot enough to keep the hedge case alive. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July after falling 0.4% in June, and 3.4% over the last 12 months, per the July 2026 CPI release. Core rose 0.2% after being unchanged in June, and 2.5% over the past 12 months against 2.6% through June.

For a non-yielding asset, the core figure is the one that pays. A 2.5% core reading against a funds rate at 3.50–3.75% puts the real policy rate between 100 and 125 basis points. That is restrictive territory, and it is the cleanest argument available against a September hike. The CME-implied probability of the Fed holding at 3.50–3.75% in September sat at 53.9% heading into the print, with hike odds trimmed to 44% from 55% after the payrolls report showed the economy shedding 23,000 jobs against expectations of an 80,000-job gain and the unemployment rate dipping to 4.1%.

The headline number keeps the hedge intact. Energy is up 14.7% over 12 months with gasoline up 24.6%. Airline fares rose 2.2% on the month and 25.5% on the year. Shelter is up 3.2% annually, having contributed two-thirds of July's monthly increase on a 0.1% gain. Services less energy services runs at 3.0% year-over-year.

The July energy print is the trap. Energy fell 1.5% on the month with gasoline down 2.9%, and that drag is not repeatable. Brent touched $90 Wednesday morning and the national regular gasoline average hit $4.03 per gallon on the same day the data showed a monthly decline. August CPI reverses that sign, and it publishes September 11 — five days before the FOMC votes.

Gold wants exactly this configuration. A Fed that cannot tighten because core is behaving, facing a headline number that reaccelerates because energy is broken. That is a negative-real-rate setup with an inflation tail, and it is the environment in which bullion outperforms every other asset class.

July delivered a 0.5% gain, the first monthly increase since February, on weaker inflation data and an unchanged policy rate. August has already produced 8.09%.

Tuesday's $4,435 Rejection Failed To Convert Into Selling

The most instructive price action of the week was the failure that did not follow through. Gold climbed beyond $4,400 on Tuesday, touching its highest level since June 5 in Asian trade at $4,435, then reversed and closed at $4,381 — down 0.18% and 54 dollars off the high.

That is a textbook exhaustion print on the daily chart: a push to a fresh two-month high, a wide-ranging bar, and a close below the open. The setup called for follow-through selling on Wednesday, with a target back at the 100-day SMA.

It did not arrive. Buyers stepped in near $4,350 in the overnight session, price reclaimed $4,398.04 before the data, and the CPI print carried it through $4,424 and back above Tuesday's failed level. Twenty-four hours after the rejection, the metal is trading higher than it was when the rejection occurred.

That behavior tells you the bid is not tactical. Profit-taking from the seven-week high of $4,372 set on August 7 produced a slide toward $4,300 on Monday, which held. The rejection at $4,435 produced a slide to $4,350, which held. Each successive dip has been shallower and each recovery faster.

The sequence: Friday August 7 saw gold jump more than 2% to $4,353, its highest level in two months, after the weak employment data accelerated a rally that had been building all week. Monday brought profit-taking toward $4,300 following the prior week's 7% gain. Tuesday pushed to $4,435 and rejected to $4,381. Wednesday cleared $4,424.

That is four sessions of higher lows inside a 135-dollar band, with the top of the band advancing each time it is tested. Compression into resistance with rising support is a continuation pattern, not a topping pattern, and it argues for the 200-day SMA getting tested rather than for a reversal from current levels.

The 200-Day SMA At $4,500.55 Is The Entire Trade

Every level above spot is noise until $4,500.55 resolves. The 200-day simple moving average is the last structural barrier between gold and a resumption of the trend that ran from 2024 into January 2026, and it sits 1.72% above current spot.

The path to it is dense but shallow. First resistance is $4,416.82, which spot has already cleared. Then $4,430, then $4,435.25 as Tuesday's rejection high, then $4,444. Those four levels sit inside a 27-dollar band, and they represent the same supply pocket from three different measurement systems.

Above $4,444, the tape opens up. There is no defined resistance between that print and the 200-day SMA at $4,500.55, a 56-dollar gap that price can traverse quickly if the bid holds. A decisive break above $4,500.55 opens continuation of the broader bullish trend, with $4,589 as the first objective.

The overhead supply that has capped this rally is the 100-day SMA at $4,388.40, and gold is now trading above it. That is the technical distinction between this attempt and the failed pushes in June and July: spot holds above the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages simultaneously, with the 100-day providing trend support rather than resistance for the first time in ten weeks.

The miner guidance corroborates the level. Both major producers are running gold price assumptions at $4,500 an ounce for planning purposes. When the two largest operators in the industry build budgets at a number, that number becomes a psychological anchor for the physical market and for equity valuations levered to it.

Failure to clear $4,500.55 is the bear scenario, and the mechanics are straightforward: rejection at the 200-day sends price back to test $4,398.04, then the 100-day SMA at $4,388.40, and a loss of that cluster exposes $4,356.70 with no major support zone until $4,188.67 to $4,130.48.

That gap — 168 dollars of air between $4,356.70 and $4,188.67 — is the risk that makes this trade asymmetric in the wrong direction if the level fails on volume.

The Support Ladder And The 168-Dollar Air Pocket

Downside structure is thinner than the upside, and traders positioning long need to respect it.

Immediate support sits at $4,398.04, the level gold reclaimed before the print. Directly beneath it is the 100-day SMA at $4,388.40, and those two form a shallow demand cluster separated by less than 10 dollars. That cluster is the first real test on any reversal.

Below it, $4,356.70 is the operative print. A hot inflation surprise would have put that level at risk immediately, and the in-line result is what protected it. Losing $4,356.70 on a daily close removes the last defined support before the gap.

Beneath that, the tape has no major support zone until $4,188.67 to $4,130.48. Inside that zone sit the 50-day SMA at $4,147.80 and the 21-day SMA at $4,133.91, which cluster tightly at the bottom of the range. Alternative measurement places the 50-day at $4,148.

The distance from spot to that support zone is 5.3% to 6.6%. That is the drawdown risk on a failed test of the 200-day, and it is why position sizing matters more than direction here.

Deeper structure: the June low near $4,002 marked the weakest level since November 2025, and it arrived during the month the PBoC executed its largest single-month purchase since 2023 at 14.93 tonnes. That coincidence is not accidental — official-sector buying accelerated 50% month-on-month during a period of price weakness, which is counter-cyclical allocation rather than momentum chasing.

The August forecast range runs $3,580.75 to $4,645.91, with month-end projections clustering at $4,084.00 to $4,120.78. Gold is currently trading 7.4% above the upper end of that month-end projection, which frames how much of the move has already been delivered.

The trade discipline is clean. Long above $4,388.40 with a stop on a daily close below $4,356.70 risks 1.53% for a first target of $4,500.55 at 1.72% and a second target of $4,589 at 3.72%. Risk-reward on the second target runs 2.4 to 1.

Momentum Is Stretched And That Is The One Genuine Warning

The Relative Strength Index is the strongest argument for caution in the entire setup. The 14-period RSI on the daily chart printed 67.03 heading into the CPI release and near 66 on Tuesday's session, which places it within three points of overbought territory.

RSI approaching 70 as price approaches the 200-day SMA is a specific and unfavorable combination. It means the metal is arriving at its most important resistance level with its momentum reserves depleted. The advance could be losing steam precisely where it needs the most force.

The Average Directional Index refines the read. ADX sat just below 30 on Tuesday, which indicates a still-directional but moderating trend. Above 25 confirms trend; the approach toward 30 without breaching it says the trend is intact but decelerating. Upside momentum remains constructive and increasingly vulnerable to consolidation near current highs.

The structural offset is that gold maintains a bullish rising-channel formation on the daily. Price holding above the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day SMAs simultaneously, inside a rising channel, with ADX confirming direction, is a trend configuration. RSI at 67 inside that configuration is normal — it becomes a warning only when price fails to make a new high while RSI rolls over.

That divergence has not printed. Gold took out Tuesday's high on Wednesday, which means RSI advancing into the high 60s is confirming rather than diverging.

The realistic path from here is a grind rather than a rip. A test of $4,500.55 on RSI near 70 will likely require consolidation before it breaks — a multi-session build between $4,430 and $4,500 that lets RSI reset toward 60 while price holds. That pattern resolves higher. The alternative — a vertical push through $4,500 on RSI above 72 — resolves lower and fast.

Watch for the consolidation. It is the constructive outcome even though it feels like stalling.

The Dollar And The Curve Are Supplying The Tailwind

The macro cross-currents favor bullion for the first time since spring, and the dollar is doing the heaviest lifting.

The dollar index slipped to 99.6 on August 10, hovering at its weakest level since early June, after the July payrolls report reshaped Fed expectations. The euro climbed to $1.1558, its strongest since mid-June, and traded up 0.09% on the session. Sterling advanced 0.15%. A dollar at two-month lows is a mechanical tailwind for gold priced in dollars, and the greenback has stuck to a range rather than recovering.

The curve is the more nuanced input. The 10-year Treasury yield sat flat at 4.682% into the print, with the 2-year at 4.212% and the 30-year unchanged at 5.231%. Thirty-year yields near two-decade highs represent the structural headwind for a zero-carry asset — the opportunity cost of holding bullion is the highest it has been in twenty years.

That headwind has stopped mattering, and the reason is the shape rather than the level. The 2s10s spread at 47 basis points and 10s30s at 54.9 describes a market pricing long-run inflation risk rather than near-term policy tightening. Steepening driven by inflation expectations is gold-positive even at high absolute yields, because it signals the market does not believe the central bank will contain the problem.

The receding September hike bets complete the picture. Easing Fed rate hike expectations continue to drive flows toward the non-yielding metal, while inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices support the case for at least one hike in 2026 — which supports the dollar and caps the upside.

That tension is why gold is grinding at $4,424 rather than gapping to $4,600. The rate-relief trade pulls it up. The hike-risk premium in the dollar pulls it back. Resolution comes from the September FOMC, and until then the metal works a range with an upward bias.

Equity risk appetite adds a competing bid. Nasdaq futures ripped 1.02% post-print to 29,928.50 while the VIX bled to 15.19. Gold rallying 1.26% alongside a 1% equity advance and a collapsing volatility index is unusual — it means the bid is not risk-off. It is monetary.

Hormuz And $90 Brent Are Rebuilding The Inflation Case

The geopolitical premium in gold is real and it is expanding.

Iran has maintained conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran demanding financial compensation for damages suffered during the conflict. Washington enforced the blockade by firing on a Panama-flagged vessel attempting to cross the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday. Brent crude touched $90 Wednesday morning with WTI pushing toward $84, and crude rallied 21% during July.

That energy complex is what rebuilds the inflation case and leaves gold exposed in both directions. Brent near $90 revives September rate-hike odds if it holds, which pressures bullion through the rate channel. It simultaneously feeds headline CPI, which supports bullion through the hedge channel. The net effect depends on which channel the market prioritizes, and right now it is prioritizing the hedge.

Renewed Middle East tension fueled safe-haven demand into the print. The rise in energy prices capped Tuesday's advance while supporting the underlying bid — a firm dollar and higher crude working against each other inside the same session.

Resolution is the risk to the long. A US-Iran agreement to end the war and reopen the strait collapses the energy premium, drops the inflation tail, and removes the geopolitical component of gold's bid in a single headline. That scenario takes the metal back through $4,356.70 toward the $4,188.67 to $4,130.48 zone, and it can happen overnight.

The offset is that the same resolution drops the 30-year yield and weakens the case for any 2026 hike, which restores the rate-relief bid. Gold would lose the geopolitical premium and gain a monetary one. Net exposure is smaller than the headline risk suggests.

The impact of the shifting geopolitical environment on inflation is compounding. Energy at these levels does not pass through in one month — it works through airline fares at 25.5% annually, through transportation services at 2.9%, through utility gas at 4.3% and electricity at 4.2%. Those are the sticky channels, and they are the reason the inflation swap market still implies 2.4% average inflation over the long run.

The PBoC Bought 19.9 Tonnes In July And Extended To 21 Months

Official-sector demand is the structural floor under this market, and China just accelerated it.

The People's Bank of China expanded official gold reserves by 19.9 tonnes in July, the largest single-month net addition since November 2023 and the 21st consecutive month of purchases. That brought China's year-to-date official net purchases to 60 tonnes and total declared reserves to 2,366 tonnes. Chinese gold reserves rose to 76.08 million ounces as of the end of July.

The trajectory tells the story. May holdings stood at 2,332 tonnes, representing 8.9% of total reserves. June added 14.93 tonnes — 480,000 troy ounces — during a month when gold touched a low near $4,002, its weakest level since November 2025. July added 19.9 tonnes, a 33% acceleration on the June figure, which itself represented a 50% month-on-month increase.

Read that pattern carefully. The central bank bought its largest volumes in nearly three years during the two months gold traded at its lowest levels of 2026. That is deliberate counter-cyclical allocation, not momentum participation, and it establishes a price floor that is behavioral rather than technical.

The structural case does not depend on price. The PBoC manages $3.4 trillion in total reserves, and gold at 8.9% of that leaves the allocation far below Western peer levels. Closing that composition gap at current purchase rates requires sustained accumulation well into the 2030s. Each quarterly decision is made against a destination allocation that remains distant.

The plumbing change matters as much as the tonnage. The PBoC has been stockpiling gold in Hong Kong, accelerating a shift of reserves out of London and back closer to home. That physically relocates bullion out of the market that sets the LBMA benchmark and into a jurisdiction with lower turnover, which tightens available float in the pricing center.

Global central bank purchasing has continued to offset heavy redemptions from Western gold ETFs earlier in the year, providing a structural underpinning for prices even as the metal traded in a wide range below its January record. That offset is the single most important reason gold held $4,000 during the June flush instead of breaking to $3,600.

Chinese ETF Flows Reversed A Record Outflow Month

The onshore Chinese retail and institutional bid has flipped from the worst month on record to the longest inflow streak since March, and the turn was violent.

Chinese gold ETFs lost RMB15 billion — $2.2 billion — in June, the worst month on record. That outflow combined with a falling gold price to drag total AUM down 16% to RMB243 billion, or $36 billion, the lowest level since December 2025. Holdings fell 17 tonnes to 277 tonnes as local investors rotated into equities, with surging new account openings diverting attention away from bullion.

August reversed it. Chinese domestic gold ETFs have posted a 14-day inflow streak worth over $1.2 billion, the longest run since March. Gold-backed exchange traded funds in China recorded their longest stretch of inflows in months as Chinese institutional investors built bullion positions to hedge volatility across other markets.

The driver is the equity market that pulled the money out in June. Volatility in domestic Chinese equities and declining local yields have pushed institutional investors back toward alternative assets. Asian equities showed a risk-off tilt through the session, led by declines in the Hang Seng and Sensex.

Context on the full year: June weakness cut Chinese gold ETF year-to-date inflow to RMB40 billion, or $5.6 billion, which still represents the second strongest first half on record. First-half demand totaled 29 tonnes with AUM up 1%.

The regional split in global flows shows where the marginal buyer lives. North American products saw modest inflows of 0.3 tonnes worth $71 million, while Asian-listed funds accumulated 4.8 tonnes worth $616 million. Asian funds remain the largest regional contributor to global year-to-date ETF inflows, which stand at $11 billion across 39 metric tonnes.

That is a 16-to-1 ratio between Asian and North American flow in tonnage terms. Western investors have not returned to this rally. When they do — and a September hold is the catalyst that brings them — the incremental bid arrives on top of official-sector demand and an Asian retail base that is already positioned.

Miners Delivered A 21% Week And The Operating Leverage Is Extreme

The equity complex has repriced faster than the metal, which is what happens when margins expand at this rate.

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF ripped 21.09% over five days to $89.73, with the Junior Gold Miners ETF outperforming at 22.42% to $116.78. GDX is up 18.2% year-to-date. Agnico Eagle Mines gained 22.92% over the same window to C$250.17 in Toronto, Newmont advanced 20.55% to $112.97 in New York, and Barrick Mining climbed 19.22% to C$61.34.

The earnings backed it. Newmont reported July 23 and Agnico Eagle followed July 30, both delivering EPS beats on realized gold prices north of $4,400 an ounce. Gold's move above $4,400 translated into record free cash flow at Newmont — $2.21 billion in the second quarter — and record operating margins at Agnico Eagle. Both majors guide to a $4,500 gold price assumption, and every dollar above all-in sustaining costs falls to free cash flow.

The margin math is the whole thesis. Newmont reported AISC near $1,680 per ounce in 2026, up sharply from $1,400 two years earlier. At $4,424 spot, that is a $2,744 per-ounce spread. Industry-wide margins have exceeded 170% at points during this cycle, against the 20-30% range that prevailed when gold traded between $1,700 and $2,000.

Revenue rises rapidly when bullion advances while many operating costs adjust more slowly, which allows stronger gold prices to flow disproportionately into earnings and share valuations. That is why a 9.09% weekly move in the metal produced a 21.09% move in GDX — a 2.3x beta that compounds in both directions.

The complication is production. Newmont designated 2026 a trough year, guiding total attributable production down to 5.3 million ounces from close to 6 million the prior year, attributed to a sequencing reset at Boddington in Australia and technical delays at Nevada operations. Miners are earning more while producing less, which means the earnings leverage is entirely price-driven rather than volume-driven.

The inverse products show the damage. The Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares fell 13% in a single session as GDX jumped 7%, extending a brutal run for a geared inverse product against a trending underlying.

Sector valuation sits at a forward P/E of 13x to 24x, a significant step up from depressed 2024 levels but still a discount to comparable-revenue technology companies.

Silver Is Confirming The Move And The Deficit Is Structural

Silver's participation validates the precious complex bid, and its supply story is tighter than gold's.

Silver rose 2.28% on the session against gold's 1.28%, an outperformance ratio of 1.8x that is characteristic of a genuine precious metals bid rather than a pure safe-haven rotation. When silver leads gold, industrial and speculative demand are both engaged. When gold leads silver, only fear is.

Technically, silver holds a bullish structure above $64.47. A break above $66.50 opens the path toward $67.60. That resistance sits 3.1% above the current support base, with the target 4.9% higher.

The fundamental case is a deficit that will not close. The market is projected to remain in deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2026, with a shortfall of 46.3 million ounces against total anticipated demand of 1.11 billion ounces. That gap represents 4.2% of annual demand going unmet by mine supply and recycling.

The demand composition is shifting rather than shrinking. Industrial consumption is anticipated to decline as solar manufacturers reduce silver loading per panel. AI data center construction, automotive electronics, and power grid infrastructure buildout are expected to continue absorbing metal. Physical investment demand is expected higher, offsetting weaker industrial, jewellery and silverware consumption.

The AI data center channel is the one to watch. That is the same capital cycle driving CoreWeave's $104.2 billion backlog and Super Micro's $65-to-72 billion fiscal 2027 revenue guide. Silver has quiet exposure to the largest capital expenditure program in the economy, and the market has not priced that connection.

For gold traders, silver's role is confirmation. A break of $66.50 while gold tests $4,500.55 is a synchronized precious complex breakout, and those resolve higher. Silver failing at $66.50 while gold pushes into the 200-day SMA is a divergence that historically precedes gold rejections.

Platinum added 1.97% on the session, completing the complex-wide bid across three metals.

Gold Sits 21% Below Its Record And That Is The Bull Case

Perspective on where this rally sits in the cycle changes how the setup should be traded.

Gold's 52-week range spans $3,311.56 to $5,602.23. Spot at $4,424.44 sits 21.0% below the upper bound and 33.6% above the lower. The metal rose to a record above $5,100 in late January 2026, crossing $5,000 for the first time in that same session, with silver topping $110 an ounce alongside it.

The drawdown from those highs took gold to $4,002 in June, its weakest level since November 2025 — a 28.6% decline from peak. The recovery from that low to current spot represents a 10.6% advance, and the metal has retraced only 18.4% of the total drawdown.

Year-to-date, gold is up 1.92%. That figure is the single most important number for framing this trade. After a 30.40% twelve-month gain and an 8.09% monthly rip, the metal is effectively flat on the year. The January record and the June flush have cancelled each other out.

That means positioning is not crowded at the index level even though momentum indicators are stretched. Western ETF investors have not returned — North American products drew 0.3 tonnes worth $71 million against Asia's 4.8 tonnes and $616 million. Global year-to-date ETF inflows total $11 billion across 39 tonnes, a modest figure against a market this size.

The asymmetry runs the right way. Downside to the $4,188.67 to $4,130.48 support zone is 5.3% to 6.6%. Upside to reclaim the January record above $5,100 is 15.3%, and to the 52-week high at $5,602.23 is 26.6%. Central banks are buying at 60 tonnes year-to-date from China alone, miners are budgeting at $4,500, and the metal is flat on the year.

What is required to unlock it: a September hold, a resolution or escalation in Hormuz that clarifies the energy path, and Western ETF flows turning positive. The first is 53.9% probable. The second is binary. The third follows from the first.

Verdict: Long Above $4,388.40, Target $4,500.55 Then $4,589

The trade is long with tight risk, and the entry is already live.

Gold holds above its 21-day, 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages for the first time in ten weeks, inside a rising channel, with ADX below 30 confirming a directional trend. The 100-day SMA at $4,388.40 has flipped from resistance to support. Tuesday's rejection at $4,435 failed to produce follow-through selling and was erased within 24 hours. Three independent bid sources — rate relief, geopolitical premium, and official-sector accumulation — are operating simultaneously.

Entry at $4,424.44 with a stop on a daily close below $4,356.70 risks 1.53%. First target is $4,500.55 at the 200-day SMA for 1.72%. Second target is $4,589 for 3.72%. Third target is the $4,645.91 upper bound of the August range for 5.0%. Risk-reward on the second target runs 2.4 to 1; on the third, 3.3 to 1.

The invalidation is precise. A daily close below $4,356.70 removes the last defined support and opens a 168-dollar air pocket down to $4,188.67, where the 50-day SMA at $4,147.80 and 21-day SMA at $4,133.91 cluster. That scenario is a 6.6% drawdown and it requires either a Hormuz resolution headline or a hawkish repricing of September.

The one genuine warning is RSI at 67.03 arriving at the 200-day SMA with momentum reserves depleted. The constructive resolution is consolidation between $4,430 and $4,500 that resets RSI toward 60 while price holds — that pattern breaks higher. A vertical push through $4,500 on RSI above 72 breaks lower and fast. Size for the second outcome, trade for the first.

For leveraged exposure, GDX at $89.73 offers a 2.3x beta to the metal with a forward P/E of 13x to 24x and majors budgeting at $4,500 gold against $1,680 AISC. Silver above $64.47 with $66.50 as the trigger provides the confirmation signal and the higher-beta alternative into a sixth consecutive annual deficit of 46.3 million ounces.

The September 15–16 FOMC is the resolution point. Everything between now and September 11, when August CPI publishes with $4.03 gasoline embedded, is positioning.

That's TradingNEWS