IBIT ETF Targets $45 Rebound as Bitcoin ETFs Shed $1.28B in Their Worst Week Since June and 2026 Flows Turn Negative

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.282 billion in net outflows in the week of November 2 to 6. That was the largest weekly withdrawal since the week ended June 26, when the funds lost $1.79 billion. It was also the seventh-largest weekly outflow since the products launched in January 2024. The funds lost money on four of five trading days. The previous week ended with a $202.6 million outflow, so the pace of selling increased sixfold in a single week.

The daily breakdown shows how the selling built. On Monday, November 2, the 12 funds lost $398.6 million. Tuesday added $115.6 million in outflows. Wednesday brought the only positive session, with $74.6 million in net inflows. Thursday reversed that with a $430.2 million outflow as Bitcoin fell to a seven-week low. Friday added another $411.9 million. The two final sessions alone took out $842.1 million, two-thirds of the weekly total.

The week erased all of 2026’s gains for the category. Before November 2, the funds had attracted about $368 million in net inflows for the year. By Friday’s close, year-to-date flows stood at negative $914.1 million. That means more money has left US spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2026 than has come in. The reversal happened in just five trading sessions. A year that started with steady buying has turned into a year of net redemptions.

The funds still hold a large base of assets. Combined net assets fell 2.3% during the week to $95.897 billion. That equals 6.28% of Bitcoin’s total market value. Cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $55.699 billion. The funds have returned less than 2% of that total this year, so the long-term investor base remains largely in place. The outflows represent profit-taking and risk reduction, not a mass exit.

Monday’s price action shows the pressure has not lifted. Bitcoin traded at $74,772.94 at 21:22 UTC, after dropping to an intraday low of $73,713.20 and touching $75,452.81. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) closed Monday at $42.32, down $0.56, or 1.31%, on volume of 30.955 million shares. Monday’s ETF flow figures will publish on Tuesday, alongside the October US consumer price index. That combination will decide whether the outflow streak extends into a third week.

IBIT Absorbs $1.21 Billion, or 94% of the Week’s Selling

BlackRock’s IBIT drove almost all of the week’s outflows. The fund lost $1.209 billion from November 2 to 6, about 94% of the category’s net withdrawals. On Friday alone, IBIT lost $403 million out of the $411.9 million that left all Bitcoin ETFs. That was roughly 88% of the day’s gross redemptions. IBIT also recorded outflows on Wednesday, when the category as a whole took in money.

The fund’s losing streak is the longest in months. IBIT recorded outflows on six consecutive trading sessions through November 6, with about $1.44 billion withdrawn since October 30. On November 4, it lost $201.2 million, extending a four-session withdrawal streak that had already reached $935.2 million. The pace accelerated on Thursday and Friday as the AI sell-off spread to crypto. Volume confirmed the activity. On Friday, IBIT traded $1.83 billion of the category’s $2.33 billion total.

IBIT’s size explains why it dominates both inflows and outflows. The fund held $60.29 billion in net assets on November 6, about 62.9% of all spot Bitcoin ETF assets. Its cumulative net inflows since launch stand at about $65.10 billion. Because IBIT is the most liquid product, large investors use it to adjust exposure quickly. When they cut risk, IBIT sees the biggest redemptions. When they add risk, it sees the biggest inflows.

IBIT’s net assets now sit below its cumulative inflows. With $65.10 billion of money put in and $60.29 billion in current assets, the fund’s investors hold about $4.81 billion less than they contributed in aggregate. That reflects Bitcoin’s 30% drop from its 52-week high. Many recent buyers sit on losses, which creates incentives to sell into any rally that brings their positions closer to break-even.

The concentration matters for reading the data. A headline of $1.28 billion in outflows sounds like a broad institutional exit. In practice, it reflects decisions by holders of a single fund. Fidelity’s FBTC took in money during the same week. The pattern points to specific large investors, likely hedge funds and multi-asset managers, reducing exposure through the most liquid vehicle. That kind of selling can reverse as quickly as it started.

Fidelity’s FBTC Bucks the Trend With $93.1 Million in Inflows

Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) moved against the tide. It attracted about $93.1 million in net inflows during the week of November 2 to 6. On Friday, when IBIT lost $403 million, FBTC took in $42.82 million, making it the only Bitcoin ETF with a positive flow that day. FBTC’s cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $10.266 billion, the second-largest total in the category.

The split between IBIT and FBTC reflects different investor bases. IBIT draws heavy use from hedge funds, trading desks and tactical allocators, who move money in and out frequently. FBTC’s investor base leans more toward financial advisors and long-term retail accounts on Fidelity’s platform. Those investors tend to buy dips rather than sell them. Their steady buying offered a partial offset to IBIT’s redemptions.

Other funds saw mixed results. Bitwise’s BITB recorded a $20.5 million outflow on Friday, the second-largest that day. Grayscale’s GBTC, ARK’s ARKB and Grayscale’s lower-fee Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) all saw smaller moves. The price action across the funds was nearly identical on Monday. FBTC closed at $65.02, down 1.34%. GBTC fell 1.28% to $57.69, ARKB 1.27% to $24.78, BITB 1.29% to $40.58, the Mini Trust 1.19% to $33.10 and VanEck’s HODL 1.24% to $21.14.

FBTC’s inflows suggest that dip buying has not disappeared. When Bitcoin trades near multi-month lows, long-term investors tend to add positions. FBTC’s $93.1 million inflow in a week of $1.28 billion in category-wide outflows is small, but it is a sign that a buyer base still exists. If IBIT’s redemptions slow, FBTC-style buying could tip daily flows back into positive territory.

The divergence also shows the market is not uniform. Some investors are cutting exposure, while others are adding. The net outflow figure masks that split. For traders, the most useful signal is the direction of IBIT’s daily flows. As long as IBIT keeps losing $200 million to $400 million a day, the category will stay negative. Once IBIT’s outflows stop, the steady buying in other funds will show through in the headline numbers.

Bitcoin Breaks to Its Lowest Level Since August

The ETF outflows ran alongside a sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin closed Sunday, November 8, at $74,740, its lowest daily close since August 20, when it finished at $73,021. Late Sunday, it fell more than $2,000 in 15 minutes, touching an intraday low near $73,477. Over four days, its cumulative loss reached about 9%. On Monday it recovered to $74,772.94, up 0.99% on the UTC day, but stayed below $75,452.81.

The sell-off followed a failed recovery. Bitcoin closed at $80,443 on November 4 and traded as high as $80,935 in the first week of November. It then fell to $76,006 within days as tech stocks sold off and ETF outflows mounted. At $74,772.94, it sits 7.0% below the November 4 close. Its 52-week high of $107,428.26 is 30.4% above the current price. The all-time high of about $126,173, set in October 2025, is 40.7% away.

Bitcoin’s market value stands at $1.504 trillion. Spot ETF assets of $95.897 billion represent 6.28% of that total. ETF flows have become one of the most important drivers of Bitcoin’s price since the funds launched. Large outflows force the funds to redeem shares, which can lead to Bitcoin being sold through authorized participants. That selling pressure added to the weekend’s leveraged liquidations.

Leverage amplified the move. More than $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours over the weekend, with $913 million coming from long positions. Ether accounted for $448 million in liquidations, Bitcoin for $272 million. When long positions are liquidated, exchanges sell the collateral at market, adding to the selling. The combination of ETF redemptions and leverage unwinding produced the sharpest drop since August.

Bitcoin’s 52-week low of $57,747.77 sits 22.8% below the current price. The August low near $62,844 held through the late-summer sell-off and led to a rally to $80,268 by August 27. Bitcoin now trades between its August recovery high and its August low. The ETF flow picture over the coming weeks will decide which end of that range it tests next.

IBIT Closes at $42.32, 29.9% Below Its 52-Week High

IBIT closed Monday at $42.32, down 1.31% on the day. The fund traded between $41.98 and $42.70 on volume of 30.955 million shares. Its 52-week range runs from $32.84 to $60.36, so the current price sits 29.9% below the high and 28.9% above the low. The fund tracks Bitcoin closely, and its 30% decline from the peak mirrors Bitcoin’s 30.4% drop from its 52-week high.

At $42.32, each IBIT share represents about 0.000566 Bitcoin at Monday’s price. That ratio lets investors translate Bitcoin levels into IBIT levels. If Bitcoin returns to $80,443, its November 4 close, IBIT would trade near $45.53. If Bitcoin falls to $70,000, IBIT would trade near $39.62. If Bitcoin returns to its 52-week high, IBIT would be close to $60.80, just above its own 52-week high.

IBIT’s trading volume shows its role as the market’s main Bitcoin vehicle. Monday’s 30.955 million shares traded represent about $1.31 billion in dollar volume. On Friday, IBIT accounted for $1.83 billion of the $2.33 billion traded across all Bitcoin ETFs, about 79%. No other fund comes close. That liquidity makes IBIT the first choice for large investors who need to move money quickly.

The fund’s position near 30% below its high puts many recent buyers under water. IBIT attracted heavy inflows in late 2025 and early 2026, when Bitcoin traded between $90,000 and $107,000. Investors who bought then hold losses of 15% to 30%. Those losses create pressure to sell on any recovery toward break-even. That overhead supply is one reason IBIT’s rallies have stalled below $47 since September.

IBIT’s price over the next two weeks depends on Bitcoin and on its own flows. A return to daily inflows would support the price by forcing authorized participants to buy Bitcoin. Continued outflows would add selling pressure. The fund’s next major support sits at the August low, where IBIT traded near $35.60, equivalent to Bitcoin at about $62,844. The key resistance sits at $45.53, equivalent to Bitcoin’s November 4 close.

Ether ETFs Extend Their Losing Streak to Six Weeks

The selling extended beyond Bitcoin. US spot Ether ETFs lost $365.2 million in the week of November 2 to 6, their sixth straight week of outflows. On November 5, they lost about $100 million. On November 6, they lost another $93.19 million. Combined outflows from spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs totalled $1.647 billion for the week.

Ether’s price reflected the pressure. ETH traded near $2,124.92 on Monday, roughly flat on the day after dropping below $2,100 over the weekend. Ether closed November 8 at $2,124, its lowest close since August 18, when it finished at $1,916. Ether accounted for $448 million of the weekend’s liquidations, more than Bitcoin. Its six-week ETF outflow streak has removed one of the main sources of institutional demand.

Other crypto ETFs showed the same pattern. Spot Solana ETFs posted their fifth straight week of outflows, losing $26.25 million. Spot XRP ETFs recorded four consecutive days with zero net flows after a $529,500 outflow on November 2. Only small pockets of buying showed up across the crypto ETF complex. The retreat was broad, though it was concentrated in the largest products.

The rotation inside the crypto market favoured Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market value rose to 60.3% as Ether, XRP and Solana fell harder. In risk-off periods, investors tend to cut exposure to smaller tokens first and keep their Bitcoin holdings. That pattern shows up in ETF flows as well. Bitcoin funds lost a larger dollar amount, but Ether, Solana and XRP funds lost a larger share of their assets.

The broader retreat matters for Bitcoin’s outlook. When institutional investors pull money from all crypto products at once, it signals a general reduction in crypto exposure rather than a shift between tokens. That kind of selling tends to last until the macro backdrop improves. A recovery in tech stocks and a softer inflation outlook would likely bring buyers back to Bitcoin first, then to Ether and the other tokens.

Why Institutions Sold: Midterms, the AI Sell-Off and Nvidia

The outflows followed a sharp turn in the broader market. On November 3, Democrats won both chambers of Congress. Investors feared tighter regulation of data centers and AI spending. On November 5, the Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since March 2020, and the S&P 500 fell about 1.5%. Bitcoin, which trades closely with tech stocks, fell alongside them. ETF outflows that day reached $430.2 million.

The weekend brought two more shocks. Reports emerged of an investigation involving Nvidia’s chief executive, raising concerns about the AI trade that has driven risk assets all year. US-Iran nuclear talks were reported to have collapsed, raising geopolitical risk. Crypto, as the only major market open over the weekend, absorbed the first reaction. Nvidia fell about 4.4% on Monday, confirming the weekend move in crypto anticipated the equity reaction.

The Binance hack added to the pressure. On October 29, attackers drained about $6.34 billion from Binance across ten blockchains, the largest crypto theft on record. They have since converted large amounts of stolen assets into Bitcoin through cross-chain swaps. The hack weighed on confidence in crypto infrastructure. It also raised concerns about how and when the stolen funds would be sold.

Institutional investors responded by cutting risk across the board. Bitcoin ETFs are among the easiest positions to reduce quickly. A hedge fund that needs to lower its overall exposure can sell IBIT in seconds. That makes Bitcoin ETFs a natural source of liquidity in a broad risk-off move. The outflows reflect a reduction in total risk rather than a specific judgment against Bitcoin.

Monday’s market showed signs of stabilisation. The S&P 500 rose 2.35% and the Nasdaq Composite 2.74%, recovering from the previous week’s losses. Bitcoin rose 0.99% on the UTC day, but IBIT fell 1.31% during US trading hours. The split shows that crypto lagged the equity rebound. If the equity recovery holds, crypto ETF flows could turn positive within days.

Strategy and Coinbase Show the Pressure Across Crypto Stocks

Crypto-linked stocks reflected the same strain. Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, fell 2.72% on Monday to $125.42, giving it a market value of $53.16 billion. It traded between $122.48 and $129.37. Its 52-week range runs from $81.81 to $249.96, so it sits 49.8% below its high. Strategy’s shares move with Bitcoin but with more volatility, because the company uses debt and equity issuance to buy more Bitcoin.

Strategy’s position matters for the broader market. The company holds a large share of Bitcoin’s supply and has financed purchases through convertible bonds and preferred stock. When its share price falls, its ability to raise money for new purchases weakens. That removes one of the steadiest sources of Bitcoin demand. With Bitcoin near $75,000, Strategy’s holdings are near its average cost, which reduces its flexibility.

Coinbase (COIN) rose 0.90% on Monday to $135.97, after touching $131.12, its 52-week low. The company received final approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for its national trust bank on Monday, joining Ripple and Circle. The charter lets Coinbase offer federally supervised custody. That matters for Bitcoin ETFs because Coinbase serves as custodian for many of the funds, including IBIT.

Coinbase’s 52-week range runs from $131.12 to $324.80, so it trades 58.1% below its high. Its business depends on crypto trading volume, which has fallen as prices have dropped. Its stock price reflects concerns about lower trading revenue rather than custody risk. The OCC charter strengthens its position as a custodian for ETF assets, but it does not offset the hit from lower activity.

The crypto equity picture points to stress without panic. Strategy and Coinbase sit far below their highs, but neither has broken down sharply in the past week. Their moves track Bitcoin closely. A Bitcoin recovery would lift both stocks. A further drop in Bitcoin would hit Strategy harder because of its leverage. For ETF investors, these stocks offer a gauge of how much risk appetite remains in the crypto sector.

Year-to-Date Flows Turn Negative: What -$914 Million Means

The swing in 2026 flows marks a shift in institutional demand. Bitcoin ETFs drew about $368 million in net inflows from January through October. That was already a weak result compared with 2024 and 2025, when the funds attracted tens of billions. The first week of November wiped out those gains and left the year at negative $914.1 million.

The year’s flows explain much of Bitcoin’s 2026 performance. When ETF inflows were strong, Bitcoin rallied. When flows turned negative, Bitcoin fell. In 2024 and 2025, steady ETF buying helped push Bitcoin to its record of about $126,173. In 2026, flows have been weak or negative most months, and Bitcoin has lost about 40% from that record. The relationship between flows and price has held throughout.

Cumulative flows still show a strong investor base. The funds have attracted $55.699 billion in net inflows since January 2024. They have returned less than $1 billion of that this year. Most investors who bought Bitcoin ETFs are still holding them. The net asset ratio of 6.28% shows that ETFs hold a meaningful share of Bitcoin’s total market value. That base is not leaving. It is simply not growing.

The question for the rest of 2026 is whether flows return. Seven weeks remain in the year. If the funds attract $1 billion in that period, they would end the year roughly flat. If outflows continue at the pace of the last two weeks, year-to-date flows could reach negative $3 billion to $4 billion. That would be the first full year of net outflows since the products launched.

Seasonal patterns offer some hope. December has historically brought year-end rebalancing and tax-related moves, which can cut both ways. Some investors sell losing positions for tax purposes, which adds to outflows. Others rebalance into assets that have fallen, which adds to inflows. The balance depends on the macro backdrop and Bitcoin’s price into year-end.

Tuesday’s US CPI and Monday’s Flow Data Arrive Together

Tuesday brings two key data points. The October US consumer price index will publish in the morning. Monday’s ETF flow figures will publish later that day. The combination will show whether the outflow streak extends into a third week, and whether macro conditions are turning in Bitcoin’s favour.

The CPI release sets the tone for the Fed. Futures markets price about an 80% chance of a December rate hike, which would lift the target range to 4.00%–4.25%. A hot inflation reading would push those odds higher and strengthen the dollar. That has consistently hurt Bitcoin in 2026. A soft reading would cut rate hike odds and support risk assets. Bitcoin ETF flows tend to follow those shifts within one or two sessions.

Monday’s flow data will provide the first read on how institutions responded to the weekend sell-off. If IBIT’s outflow streak extends to seven sessions, the market will see continued institutional selling. If IBIT shows flat or positive flows, it would suggest the weekend liquidations cleared the worst of the pressure. A return to inflows in FBTC and the smaller funds would add to the case for stabilisation.

The price action on Monday points to a mixed result. Bitcoin rose 0.99% on the UTC day and held above $73,713.20. IBIT fell 1.31% during US hours. That suggests Bitcoin’s overnight recovery faded during the US session, when ETF flows are set. Volume in IBIT was solid at 30.955 million shares. Without the official flow data, the direction of Monday’s flows is unclear.

The rest of the week carries more risks. US Treasury yields, the dollar, oil prices and AI stocks will all affect risk appetite. Any further news on the Binance hack, including the movement or sale of stolen Bitcoin, could add pressure. Elsewhere, the Bank of Russia approved crypto trading starting November 17, a sign that regulatory support is spreading globally. The ETF flow picture will reflect all of these factors.

Technical Map Above: $75,452, $80,443 and IBIT at $45.53

The first resistance level for Bitcoin is Monday’s intraday high of $75,452.81, 0.9% above the current price. That level sits just below the round number of $76,000, which marks the bottom of last week’s trading range. A close above $76,000 would put Bitcoin back inside the range it held before the weekend sell-off. For IBIT, the equivalent level is about $43.03.

The next major resistance sits at $80,443, the November 4 close, and $80,935, the November high. Reclaiming $80,443 would require a 7.6% rally. That would erase the entire sell-off since the midterm elections. For IBIT, the $80,443 level translates to about $45.53, a 7.6% gain from Monday’s close. That is the near-term target for a recovery in ETF flows.

Above $80,935, the $81,000 to $81,850 zone has repeatedly capped rallies this autumn. Bitcoin failed there in early November and again in October. A break above $81,850 would signal a change in trend. It would likely require a combination of positive ETF flows, a soft CPI print and a recovery in AI stocks. For IBIT, $81,850 corresponds to about $46.33.

The 52-week high of $107,428.26 marks the outer target. A return there would require a 43.7% rally and a full reversal of 2026’s flow trends. It is not a near-term target. It shows how far Bitcoin has fallen from its late-2025 levels and how much institutional demand would need to return to reach them again.

Momentum indicators reflect oversold conditions. Bitcoin’s weekend drop pushed it below several moving averages, including its 50-week average near $75,492. Short-term momentum has turned down, but the scale of last week’s selling has left the market stretched. A relief rally toward $76,000 to $77,500 is likely if ETF outflows slow. A sustained move above $80,443 needs flows to turn positive.

Technical Map Below: $73,713, $73,021 and the $70,000 Line

The first support level for Bitcoin is Monday’s intraday low of $73,713.20, 1.4% below the current price. Just below sits $73,477, Sunday’s flush low, the lowest point since August. For IBIT, those levels translate to about $41.72 and $41.59. IBIT’s Monday low of $41.98 sits just above that zone.

The next support is $73,021, the August 20 close. That level marks the last time Bitcoin closed below $74,000. A close below $73,021 would signal a new leg lower and put the August lows in view. For IBIT, $73,021 corresponds to about $41.33, a 2.3% decline from Monday’s close.

The $70,000 level is the key psychological support. It marks the August 19 high and the round number that the market has defended twice this year. A drop to $70,000 would mean a 6.4% decline from current levels. For IBIT, $70,000 translates to about $39.62. That is the level where ETF buyers stepped in during the August sell-off, and it is the most likely zone for a durable bottom if outflows continue.

Below $70,000, the August low near $62,844 marks the next major support. A drop there would mean a 16.0% decline. For IBIT, it translates to about $35.57. The 52-week low of $57,747.77 sits below that. A return to $57,748 would require a 22.8% decline and would put IBIT near $32.69, just below its 52-week low of $32.84.

The downside path depends on flows. Each $1 billion in weekly outflows adds selling pressure that the market must absorb. Another week of $1 billion or more in outflows would likely push Bitcoin through $73,021 toward $70,000. A return to flat or positive flows would likely hold the $73,477 to $73,713 zone. Traders should watch IBIT’s daily flow figures as the leading indicator for Bitcoin’s next move.

Event Risk and the Verdict on Bitcoin ETF Flows

The next two weeks will decide whether 2026 ends with net outflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Tuesday’s CPI release and Monday’s flow data arrive together. The Fed’s December decision follows, with a hike priced at about 80%. Daily flow reports will show whether IBIT’s six-session outflow streak extends or ends. Any news on the Binance hack, AI stocks or US-Iran tensions will feed directly into risk appetite and ETF demand.

The bearish case rests on momentum and concentration. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.282 billion in the week of November 2 to 6, their worst week since June. Year-to-date flows swung from about +$368 million to -$914.1 million. IBIT lost $1.209 billion, 94% of the total, and about $1.44 billion over six sessions. Ether ETFs lost $365.2 million in their sixth straight week of outflows. Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since August, and $913 million of leveraged long positions were liquidated over the weekend.

The bullish case rests on the investor base and selective buying. Cumulative net inflows still stand at $55.699 billion, and ETF assets total $95.897 billion, 6.28% of Bitcoin’s market value. FBTC took in $93.1 million during the worst week since June, including $42.82 million on Friday. Wednesday brought $74.6 million in category-wide inflows. Bitcoin has held above $73,477, and equity markets rallied strongly on Monday. The selling is concentrated in one fund, which means it can reverse quickly.

The balance points to continued pressure in the short term. IBIT’s redemptions have not stopped, and the macro backdrop remains uncertain. A sustained return to inflows needs a catalyst, most likely a soft CPI print or a durable recovery in AI stocks.

The verdict on Bitcoin ETF flows is bearish in the short term, with IBIT at $42.32 targeting $39.62 and Bitcoin targeting $70,000 if outflows continue. A daily Bitcoin close below the $73,021 August 20 level would confirm that move. A soft CPI print and a first day of positive IBIT flows would shift the outlook, targeting $45.53 for IBIT and $80,443 for Bitcoin. A weekly inflow above $500 million would mark a turn in institutional demand. Until IBIT’s outflow streak ends, the path of least resistance for both the fund and Bitcoin points toward the $70,000 support zone.

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