Solana Price Targets $80 as ETF Outflows Stretch to 5 Weeks Despite Schwab and Formation Bringing SOL to Wall Street

Solana traded at $86.43 at 21:11 UTC on Monday, November 9, up $0.59, or 0.69%, from the UTC day’s open at $86.32. Over the past 24 hours, it was down about 2.4%. Earlier in the session it slid to $85.36, its lowest level since August 20. A rebound in US trading then lifted it to $88.21 before sellers pushed it back toward $86. Daily volume reached $3.40 billion, the heaviest since November 5. That is 6.64% of Solana’s market value, a high turnover ratio that points to forced selling and active repositioning.

At $86.43, Solana’s market value stands at $51.15 billion on 591.15 million circulating tokens. That puts it seventh among cryptocurrencies by market value. Its fully diluted value, counting all 637.31 million tokens issued, is $55.08 billion. Unlike Bitcoin or XRP, Solana has no maximum supply, so its token count grows each year through staking rewards. The gap between circulating and total supply is modest, but inflation adds steady selling pressure that buyers must absorb.

Monday’s session capped a fifth straight weekly decline. Solana closed Sunday, November 8, at $86.24, down from $94.45 a week earlier, a weekly loss of 8.7%. On Sunday it broke below a long-term rising trendline near $90.41 that connected its June and August lows. That line had supported the price through two prior sell-offs. Losing it removed a key technical floor and shifted attention to the August breakout zone between $77 and $85.

The broader damage is large. Solana ended 2025 at $124.48, so it is down 30.6% in 2026. One year ago, on November 9, 2025, it closed at $164.45, which puts the 12-month loss at 47.4%. The 52-week high of $171.61, set on November 11, 2025, sits 49.6% above the current price. The all-time high of $294.33 is 70.6% away. Solana has lost more than two-thirds of its peak value even as its network keeps setting records for activity.

That contrast defines the outlook. On Monday alone, Charles Schwab opened Solana trading to its retail crypto clients. Formation Securities notified the SEC that it plans to run a tokenized stock venue on Solana. Solana developers also moved to retire the transaction feature used in April’s $270 million Drift hack. Yet the price barely moved. Five weeks of ETF outflows, a market-wide liquidation wave and a weak crypto backdrop are outweighing good news.

Five Red Weeks: From $124.62 in September to $85.36

Solana’s decline has been steady and sustained. The token peaked near $124.62 intraday on September 27, after a rally from the August lows. It closed September at $117.99. It then lost 19.2% in October, closing the month at $95.35. The first week of November added another 8.7%. From the September 27 close of $122.06, Solana is down 29.2% in six weeks.

The October decline came in clear steps. Solana held near $120 until October 7, then dropped 6.6% in two days to $109.44 on October 8. It traded between $103 and $111 through mid-October. It broke below $100 on October 29, falling 6.7% in one day from $102.31 to $95.49, its heaviest drop of the month. Volume that day reached $4.88 billion. Every attempt to recover since has stalled below the previous bounce.

November’s moves have been sharper. Solana rallied to $97.70 intraday on November 4, its highest level in a week, on hopes that the US midterm results would support risk assets. The next day, it dropped 6.65% to $89.14 as the AI sell-off spread to crypto. It closed November 6 at $90.06 and November 7 at $89.67. On Sunday it lost 3.8% to $86.24, breaking the trendline. Monday’s low at $85.36 extended the decline.

The 2026 pattern shows how volatile Solana has been. The token started the year near $125 and climbed to $148.22 on January 14. It then crashed in early February during a broad crypto sell-off, falling to $68.69 intraday on February 6. It recovered to the $80 to $90 range through spring, then fell again in late May and June. The 52-week low of $60.41 came on June 6. From there, it rallied 43.1% to the current price, peaking near $124.62 in late September.

The August breakout set up the current test. Solana spent most of July and early August between $71 and $78. On August 19, it jumped 10.8% from $77.03 to $85.37, then rallied to $110.04 by August 27. That move, a 43% gain in eight days, came as Schwab announced it would add Solana to its platform and as ETF inflows picked up. The current price sits at the top of the August launch zone. If the zone fails, the market will test where that rally started, near $77.

Spot Solana ETFs Lose Money for a Fifth Straight Week

The clearest driver of Solana’s slide is the ETF market. US spot Solana ETFs recorded net outflows for a fifth straight week through November 6, totaling nearly $170 million over that stretch. Last week’s outflows reached $26.25 million. October produced $143.71 million in net outflows, the worst month for the funds since launch. The single largest week came from October 26 to 30, at $71.47 million.

The daily data show how the selling clustered. On November 2 and 3, flows were flat. On November 5, the funds lost $1.18 million. On November 6, they lost $24.2 million, the heaviest day in more than a week. The Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) led with $14.4 million in outflows. The Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) lost $5.4 million, and the Morgan Stanley fund lost $4.4 million. No fund recorded an inflow that day. The October stretch also included a nine-day withdrawal streak.

Despite the selling, the long-term ETF base remains intact. Cumulative net flows since the funds launched still stand at $1.435 billion. Investors who bought early have not abandoned the product. Much of the recent outflow likely reflects rebalancing and tax-loss selling, as holders who bought near $120 to $170 trim positions sitting on losses. The funds are not seeing a rush for the exits. They are seeing a steady drain that the market has struggled to absorb.

The comparison with other crypto ETFs is telling. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion in the week of November 2 to 6, their largest weekly outflow since late June. XRP ETFs saw four straight days of zero flows. Ethereum funds also bled. Solana’s outflow streak fits a broader retreat by institutional investors from crypto products after a difficult autumn. The selling is not specific to Solana, but Solana has a smaller ETF base, so each dollar of outflow has more impact.

The ETF trend is the variable to watch. Solana’s August rally came alongside inflows. Its autumn slide has come alongside outflows. A return to daily inflows would signal that institutional demand is stabilizing and would likely mark a bottom. Five weeks of consecutive selling is a long streak. Streaks like this tend to end once prices fall far enough to attract value buyers. The question is whether $86 is low enough, or whether the market needs to test $77 first.

Schwab Opens Solana Trading to Its Retail Clients

The biggest Solana-specific news on Monday came from Charles Schwab. The brokerage opened Solana, Avalanche and Chainlink trading to its retail crypto clients, expanding the Schwab Crypto platform beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Schwab first announced the plan on August 27, when it said the three tokens would come “in the coming months.” That announcement helped fuel Solana’s 12.9% one-day gain in late August.

The potential reach is large. Schwab holds about 39.9 million brokerage accounts. Schwab Crypto launched in May with direct Bitcoin and Ethereum trading through the firm’s website, mobile app and thinkorswim platform. Clients pay a 0.75% fee on each crypto trade. Schwab also introduced 24/7 crypto futures trading for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP in June through thinkorswim. It is targeting the middle of 2027 for spot trading, transfers and custody built for registered investment advisors.

The market’s reaction shows how much the news had already been priced. On Monday, Avalanche jumped 8.84% to $8.55 and Chainlink rose 4.05% to $10.64. Solana gained just 0.69% on the UTC day. The other two tokens rallied because Schwab access is new for their holders and they trade far below their past highs. Solana’s August rally had already priced in the Schwab listing. Monday’s launch confirmed it without adding much fresh demand.

The long-term effect matters more than the first day. Retail access through a major US brokerage brings Solana to investors who would never open a crypto exchange account. Schwab’s clients skew older and wealthier than typical crypto buyers. Even a small allocation from that base could add steady demand over months. That kind of buying tends to build slowly, without the sharp spikes that drive daily price moves.

The listing also strengthens Solana’s position among the major cryptocurrencies. It is now one of only five tokens available on Schwab Crypto. Combined with spot ETFs, CFTC-regulated futures and inclusion in major index products, Solana has the full institutional toolkit that Bitcoin and Ethereum enjoy. That access will not stop short-term selling, but it builds a deeper buyer base for when sentiment turns.

Formation Securities Brings 24/7 Tokenized Stock Trading to Solana

Monday brought a second major adoption headline. Formation Securities notified the SEC that it intends to operate a tokenized securities venue on Solana. Trading is expected to begin in early 2027. Verified investors will hold tokenized shares in their digital wallets and trade them 24/7 against stablecoins and other eligible assets. Shareholders will keep their voting, dividend and other rights, and the transfer agent will still maintain the official shareholder record.

The first listings are already lined up. Galaxy Digital, Exodus Movement and Forward Industries are expected to make tokenized shares available at launch. Superstate and Securitize, two tokenization firms, are set to supply the tokenized shares. Formation will use trading technology licensed from Orca, a decentralized exchange built on Solana. Trades will settle atomically, meaning the asset and payment move at the same moment, with no clearing delay.

The venue relies on the SEC’s Innovation Exemption, released on September 17. That framework lets qualifying venues trade tokenized US-listed shares under conditions that include limits on listed securities and trading volume, required public disclosures and customer checks. The framework runs for five years. Companies have 30 days to block trading of their shares if an unaffiliated third party tokenizes them. Formation is one of several venues that plan to use the exemption.

Formation chose Solana for its speed, low costs and track record with tokenized assets. Solana’s token standard supports the permissioning and transfer restrictions that securities rules require. That lets issuers control which wallets can hold or trade their shares. Solana already hosts more than $5 billion in tokenized real-world assets, including treasury bills, credit products and early tokenized equities. Formation’s venue would add regulated stock trading to that base.

The announcement matters for Solana’s long-term value. Tokenized stock trading, if it grows, would bring steady transaction volume, stablecoin demand and fee revenue to the network. Each trade pays fees in SOL, and validators earn rewards from network activity. The venue is not live yet, and the SEC framework imposes volume limits, so the near-term impact on SOL demand is small. Solana fell 3.7% on the day the news broke, a sign that traders are focused on flows, not fundamentals.

Network Records Clash With a Falling Price

Solana’s network fundamentals have rarely looked stronger. A recent industry report found that Solana’s weekly trade count briefly surpassed the New York Stock Exchange in one week of 2026. The same report put Solana’s share of major US exchange-related flows at 15% in 2026, up from 0.30% in 2022. Solana has become one of the busiest blockchains for trading, payments and tokenized assets, rivalling traditional exchanges on transaction count.

The network has also upgraded its core technology. Alpenglow, a new consensus protocol, went live on mainnet on October 21. It targets transaction finality of about 150 milliseconds, far faster than Solana’s previous design. Faster finality matters for trading, payments and tokenized securities, where users need certainty that a transaction is complete. Alpenglow puts Solana among the fastest-settling public blockchains.

The network also raised its block compute limits by 66% this year, giving each block room to handle more computation. That allows more transactions and more complex applications to run at once. It also places greater demands on validators, who must run more powerful hardware. Validators were told to upgrade to Agave version 4.4.1 before epoch 1079, which began around November 6, or risk falling off the network. The upgrade went ahead without major disruption.

The gap between network growth and price performance is striking. October was a month of records for network speed, tokenized assets, payments and institutional access. In the same month, SOL lost 19.2%. That gap reflects the difference between using the network and holding the token. Rising activity pays fees, but Solana’s fees are low by design. Network growth helps the token over time, but it does not stop selling driven by ETF flows, leverage and macro risk.

That gap creates the longer-term opportunity. When sentiment improves, markets tend to reprice tokens toward their fundamentals. Solana’s adoption metrics now look far stronger than its price. If ETF outflows end and macro conditions settle, the network’s growth gives buyers a reason to step in. The timing depends on factors outside Solana’s control, but the fundamental case has strengthened even as the price has fallen.

Solana Moves to Retire Durable Nonces After the $270 Million Drift Hack

Solana developers moved on Monday to eliminate the transaction feature used in April’s Drift hack. The plan would retire durable nonces, with a six-month migration window for applications that rely on them. Durable nonces let users pre-sign transactions that stay valid indefinitely. Normal Solana transactions expire after 60 to 90 seconds. The feature was designed for hardware wallets, offline signing and institutional custody workflows.

The Drift attack showed how that convenience could be abused. On April 1, attackers drained about $270 million from Drift Protocol, Solana’s largest perpetual futures platform. Estimates later ranged up to $285 million. The attackers did not exploit a code bug. They tricked two of the five members of Drift’s security council into pre-signing transactions weeks in advance. On April 1, the attackers submitted the pre-signed transactions four slots apart and took full control of Drift’s administrative powers in under a minute.

The losses included about $155 million in JLP tokens, $70 million in USDC and $50 to $60 million in other tokens. Drift’s total value locked fell by nearly half within hours. Investigators linked the attack to North Korean hackers. It ranks among the biggest crypto thefts of 2026. The 2-of-5 multisig threshold, which let just two signers approve major changes, drew heavy criticism.

Retiring durable nonces removes a known attack vector, but the transition carries costs. Custody providers and institutional users who rely on offline signing will need to adapt their systems. The six-month window gives them time, but some applications may face disruption. The move signals that Solana’s developers are willing to change core features to improve security. That matters for institutional adoption, especially as tokenized securities and regulated venues move onto the network.

The hack still weighs on sentiment. Solana’s appeal to institutions depends on its reputation for security as well as speed. The Drift attack, along with the October 29 Binance hack, in which attackers converted about $90 million of stolen SOL into Bitcoin, has reminded investors of the risks in the ecosystem. The durable nonce fix addresses one issue. Rebuilding confidence will take time and a clean track record.

Liquidations and Leverage Amplify the Slide

Leverage has made Solana’s decline sharper. In the 24 hours ending November 8, crypto liquidations totaled $604.4 million, with long positions accounting for 92% of the losses. Solana accounted for $29.6 million of that total. During the same stretch, SOL fell 3.2% in a single hour to about $86.29. The weekend wave grew larger. More than $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours as Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since August.

The November 5 sell-off showed the same pattern. Solana fell 6.65% that day as $37.68 million of SOL positions were liquidated, $34.18 million of them longs. When long positions are liquidated, exchanges sell the collateral at market. That pushes prices lower and triggers more liquidations. The cascade explains why Solana’s daily drops have been so steep, even when the triggering news was not Solana-specific.

Open interest in Solana futures has fallen to a two-month low. Funding rates, the payments traders make to hold leveraged positions, have also dropped. Both signals point to reduced appetite for leveraged long bets. That cuts both ways. Fewer leveraged longs means fewer forced sellers in the next drop. It also means less fuel for a quick rebound, because traders are not positioned to chase prices higher.

The derivatives picture suggests the market is cleaning out leverage. After five weeks of declines and repeated liquidation waves, the weakest long positions have been forced out. Futures markets are less crowded than they were in September. That reduces the risk of another sudden cascade. It also sets up a more stable base for a recovery, once spot buyers return.

The broader market adds risk. Bitcoin fell to the low $73,000s over the weekend, and Ether dropped below $2,100. Solana tends to move more than Bitcoin in both directions. If Bitcoin breaks lower, Solana will likely fall further. If Bitcoin stabilizes, Solana could rebound faster. The leverage reset gives Solana room to rally, but only if the broader crypto market stops falling.

Macro Pressure: Nvidia, the Midterms and Tuesday’s US CPI

Solana’s slide has run alongside a broad risk-off move. The US midterm elections on November 3 handed Democrats both chambers of Congress. That raised concerns about tighter rules on data centers and AI spending. The Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since March 2020 on November 5. Crypto, which trades closely with tech stocks, fell sharply. Solana dropped 6.65% that day.

The weekend brought fresh shocks. Reports of an investigation involving Nvidia’s chief executive and the collapse of US-Iran nuclear talks hit crypto while stock markets were closed. Crypto absorbed the first reaction, and leveraged positions were wiped out. On Monday, Nvidia fell about 4.4%, but the S&P 500 rallied 2.59% as falling oil prices lifted broader markets. Crypto lagged that rebound, with Solana up only modestly.

Tuesday’s US consumer price index for October is the next major risk. Futures markets price about an 80% chance of a Fed rate hike in December. A hot inflation number would push those odds higher, lift the dollar and weigh on risk assets, including crypto. A soft reading would cut rate hike odds, support risk appetite and give crypto room to rebound. Solana, as one of the higher-beta major tokens, would move more than Bitcoin in either case.

The AI trade matters for Solana in particular. Much of Solana’s 2026 narrative has centred on its role in AI-driven applications, payments and tokenized assets. When AI stocks sell off, Solana tends to fall alongside them. AI-linked tokens dropped about 30% recently as concerns grew about the sector. A recovery in AI stocks would likely support Solana. Further losses would add pressure.

The macro picture points to continued volatility. Solana’s price will depend heavily on US inflation data, Fed expectations and the AI trade over the next month. Positive surprises in any of those areas could trigger a sharp rebound, given how oversold Solana has become. Negative surprises could push it through its August support levels.

Technical Map Above: $88.21, the $90.41 Trendline and $97.70

The first resistance level for Solana is Monday’s intraday high of $88.21, 2.1% above the current price. A break above $88.21 would put Solana back above Sunday’s close and signal that the weekend sell-off has run its course. The next level sits at $89.67 to $90.06, the November 6 and 7 closes, where Solana held for two days before breaking down.

The key resistance is the broken trendline near $90.41. That line connected the June and August lows and supported Solana until Sunday. Broken support often turns into resistance, as traders who bought near the line sell to exit at break-even. A daily close back above $90.41 would mean the breakdown was a false move. It would require a 4.6% rally from current levels.

Above the trendline, the next zone runs from $95.49 to $97.70. That covers the November 4 close and intraday high, the last time Solana attempted a recovery. Reclaiming $97.70 would require a 13.0% rally. Just above sits the 200-day exponential moving average, near $99. Solana has traded below that average since late October. A close above it would end the downtrend and shift the medium-term picture back to neutral.

The $100 to $102.31 zone marks the October 28 close and the last level before the October 29 breakdown. A move back to $102 would erase all of November’s losses. That would likely need a combination of ETF inflows, a soft US CPI print and a broader crypto rebound. It is a realistic target over four to six weeks, but not in the next few days.

Momentum indicators point to oversold conditions. The daily relative strength index fell to about 26 to 30, below the 30 level that marks oversold territory. Readings that low often precede short-term rebounds, especially after five weeks of declines. A bounce toward $90.41 is a reasonable expectation. A sustained move above it would need a catalyst beyond oversold conditions.

Technical Map Below: $85.36, $77 and the $60.41 Floor

The first support level is Monday’s intraday low of $85.36, 1.2% below the current price. That level marks the lowest point since August 20. A daily close below $85.36 would confirm a new leg lower and open the path toward the August 20 low near $84.08. Below that sits $80, a round number that has not traded since August 19.

The critical support zone runs from $76.62 to $77.03. That covers the August 18 close and the August 19 low, where Solana’s 43% August rally began. A test of $77 would mean a 10.9% decline from current levels. The zone saw heavy buying in August, and the market will test whether those buyers return. A strong bounce from $77 would set up a higher low against the June bottom.

Below $77, the July and early August range offers support between $70.69 and $74.20. Solana traded in that band for most of July and early August, with the August 1 low at $70.69. A drop into that range would mean a decline of 14% to 18% from current levels. It would likely require a broader crypto sell-off, with Bitcoin breaking below its August lows.

The 52-week low of $60.41, set on June 6, is the final floor. A return there would mean a 30.1% decline from current levels. That would require a major risk-off event, such as a deep AI-driven equity correction or a sharp tightening in financial conditions. It is a tail risk, not a base case, but it marks the bottom of the 12-month range.

The downside map points to a clear structure. Holding $85.36 suggests the weekend sell-off is ending. Losing it points to $80 and then the $77 August base. The $77 zone is where buyers stepped in before, and it is the most likely place for a durable bottom if the decline continues. Below $77, support becomes thin until the $70 to $74 band. Position sizing should account for Solana’s tendency to move 6% to 10% in a single day during sell-offs.

Event Risk and the Verdict on Solana

The next few weeks carry clear catalysts. Tuesday’s US CPI release will set the tone for rate expectations and risk appetite. Daily ETF flow data will show whether the five-week outflow streak finally breaks. The Fed’s December decision will shape the macro backdrop into year-end. Early demand from Schwab’s retail launch will show whether brokerage access brings new buyers. Progress on retiring durable nonces and Formation’s SEC process will shape Solana’s institutional story.

The bearish case is strong in the short term. Solana has fallen five weeks in a row, losing 29.2% from late September. It broke the trendline from its June and August lows near $90.41 and trades below its 200-day moving average near $99. Spot Solana ETFs have lost nearly $170 million in five weeks, including a record $71.47 million in one week and $143.71 million in October. Leveraged longs have been liquidated repeatedly. The broader crypto market is at August lows, and Solana remains 70.6% below its all-time high.

The bullish case rests on adoption and positioning. Schwab opened Solana trading to its retail clients on Monday, reaching about 39.9 million brokerage accounts. Formation Securities plans 24/7 tokenized stock trading on Solana from early 2027 under an SEC exemption. Alpenglow brought finality of about 150 milliseconds. Solana’s weekly trade count briefly topped the NYSE. Cumulative ETF flows remain positive at $1.435 billion. Momentum indicators are deeply oversold, and futures leverage has been flushed out.

The balance favours caution in the short term and patience over the medium term. The fundamentals are improving, but flows and macro conditions still point lower. The August base near $77 is the most likely zone for a durable bottom.

The verdict on Solana is bearish in the short term from $86.43, with a target of $80 and a buy zone at $77 to $80. A daily close below Monday’s $85.36 low targets $80 within days, then the $77 August base. A strong reaction from $77 on renewed ETF inflows would set up a recovery toward $90.41 and then $97.70. On the upside, a daily close back above $90.41 cancels the bearish view and targets the $95.49 to $97.70 zone, with the 200-day average near $99 as the line that would end the downtrend. A daily close below $76.62 opens the July range near $70. Solana’s network keeps growing, but ETF flows still set the price.

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