XRP Heads for $1 Test After Binance Hacker Dumps 139M Tokens and ETF Inflows Stall for Four Days

XRP traded at $1.0940 at 17:49 UTC on Monday, November 9, down $0.0597, or 5.17%, over 24 hours. The token opened the UTC day at $1.1111, briefly reached $1.1224 and then fell to an intraday low of $1.0785. That is its lowest price since August 19. Daily volume reached $3.40 billion, the heaviest turnover since October 30, when $3.90 billion changed hands. Heavy volume on a down day signals that sellers are in control.

At $1.0940, XRP’s market value is $69.39 billion on a circulating supply of 63.52 billion tokens. That keeps it in sixth place among cryptocurrencies by market value. Fully diluted, counting all 99.99 billion tokens that exist, the valuation is $109.46 billion. The gap between the two figures, about $40 billion, represents tokens still held in Ripple’s escrow and treasury. That supply overhang matters more when demand is weak, as it is now.

Monday’s drop extends a slide that began on November 4. That day XRP climbed to $1.3353 intraday and closed at $1.3047, its best level in two weeks. Since then it has fallen five days in a row: to $1.2060 on November 5, $1.1781 on November 6, $1.1620 on November 7, $1.1105 on November 8 and $1.0940 now. The decline from the November 4 high is 18.07%. The November 5 session alone took 7.57% off the price, the largest single-day loss in the sequence.

XRP fell further than its peers on Monday. Bitcoin was down 1.30% at $74,667.10, Ether down 4.72% at $2,122.82, and Solana down 2.87% at $86.50. XRP’s 5.17% loss was the worst of the four largest non-stablecoin assets. A token that falls harder than the market on a broad sell-off is carrying its own problem, and XRP has a specific one this week: stolen tokens from the October 29 Binance hack are moving across the XRP Ledger.

Two numbers now frame the outlook. The first is $1. XRP is 9.40 cents, or 8.6%, above it, and it held above that level through August’s lows. The second is $0.9884, the 52-week low set on August 14, which is 9.65% below the current price. A test of the $1 area looks likely within days if the selling continues at this pace. Whether that level holds depends on three forces: the hacker’s supply, ETF demand and the broader crypto market’s reaction to this week’s US data.

Five Red Weeks and a 40.5% Loss in 2026

XRP’s weekly chart shows how persistent the selling has been. The token has closed five weeks in a row below where each week opened. It ended 2025 at $1.8400, so at $1.0940 it is down 40.54% in 2026. One year ago, on November 9, 2025, it closed at $2.3677. That puts the 12-month loss at 53.8%. The 52-week high of $2.5772, set on November 10, 2025, sits 57.55% above the current price, and the all-time high of $3.8419 is 71.5% away.

The year’s path explains why sentiment is so fragile. XRP opened January near $1.84 and climbed to $2.4103 on January 6. That was the 2026 high. It then lost 50% in a month, falling to an intraday low of $1.1335 on February 6 during a broad crypto crash. The token stabilized between $1.30 and $1.50 from March through May. It then fell through June and July and bottomed at $0.9884 on August 14. A rally followed that took it from $1.1044 on August 19 to an intraday peak of $1.6838 on August 22, a 52% jump in three days.

That August rally set the year’s second major top. XRP held between $1.40 and $1.60 through most of September, peaking at $1.6536 intraday on September 23. It has fallen steadily since. It lost $1.50 on October 6, $1.40 on October 12, $1.30 on October 29 and $1.20 on November 6. A month ago, on October 9, it closed at $1.3953, so the 30-day loss is 21.6%. Every bounce since late September has stalled below the previous one, the classic signature of a downtrend.

The August low is now the reference point for traders. In mid-August XRP spent eight sessions near $1. It touched $0.9884 on August 14 and $0.9891 on August 18 before the sharp reversal on August 19. Buyers defended that zone forcefully, and the volume during the August 19 to 22 rally, which peaked at $15.44 billion on August 22, showed how much demand was waiting there. The question for November is whether the same buyers return at the same level.

Five straight losing weeks put XRP in an extended oversold condition, but extended conditions can persist. Past runs of five or more losing weeks have tended to end at lower prices within the following three months, not at the point where the streak ended. The setup favours a test of the August zone before any sustained recovery. That is the base case unless a clear buying catalyst appears in the next two weeks.

The Binance Hacker’s 139 Million XRP Is the Supply Problem Nobody Can Price

The single biggest XRP-specific factor this week is stolen supply. On October 29, attackers drained about $6.34 billion from Binance across ten blockchains, the largest crypto theft on record. Part of the haul was 233.46 million XRP. At Monday’s price, that stash is worth about $255 million. Because the XRP Ledger has no protocol-level mechanism to freeze tokens, the stolen coins can move freely, and every move is visible on-chain.

The tokens sat dormant for about 80 hours after the hack. On November 2, the attacker split all 233.46 million XRP across six new wallets in nine large transfers within eight minutes. Five wallets received about 40 million XRP each and the sixth about 33.46 million. On Thursday, November 5, the distribution began. Since then, 139 million XRP, worth about $151 million, has left one of the hacker’s wallets in 728 payments to 79 addresses, 55 of them newly created. Large amounts of that supply have been swapped into Bitcoin through cross-chain exchange protocols.

The timing lines up with the price. The first payouts went out on Thursday, November 5, the same day XRP fell 7.57%, its worst session of the week. The receiving wallets hold only about 2.3 million XRP now, so most of the 139 million has already moved on, much of it sold. About 94.5 million XRP remain in the hacker’s known wallets, and 73.5 million of those have not moved since November 2. That leftover supply, worth about $103 million at $1.0940, is the overhang the market must still absorb.

The size of the overhang is modest against total supply but large against daily demand. The full 233.46 million XRP stash equals 0.37% of circulating supply. Monday’s $3.40 billion in volume, however, includes a great deal of derivatives and arbitrage trading. Net new buying on any given day is a small fraction of that figure. Selling $151 million of XRP into thin spot demand over four days hits the price far harder than its share of supply suggests. The hacker is a forced, price-insensitive seller who needs to convert stolen tokens before they can be traced or blocked.

Traders cannot know when or how fast the remaining 94.5 million XRP will move. That uncertainty acts as a cap on rallies. Any bounce gives the hacker a better price to sell into, and buyers know it. The overhang only clears when the stolen tokens are fully distributed and swapped. On current evidence, that could take another one to two weeks. Until then, the hacker’s wallets are the most important on-chain data point for XRP.

Weekend Liquidations Dragged the Whole Market to August Lows

XRP’s slide came alongside a broad crypto sell-off over the weekend. Bitcoin dropped to an intraday low between $73,477 and $73,761 late Sunday, its weakest level since August, in a 15-minute flush of more than $2,000. Bitcoin closed Sunday, November 8, at $74,740, its lowest daily close since August 20. On Monday it traded at $74,667.10, down 1.30%, inside a $73,713.20 to $75,452.81 range. Ether dropped below $2,100 before recovering to $2,122.82.

Forced selling drove most of the damage. More than $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, and $913 million of that came from long positions, bets on higher prices. Ether accounted for $448 million in liquidations, Bitcoin for $272 million. When long positions are liquidated, exchanges sell the collateral at market. That pushes prices lower and sets off further liquidations. The cascade hit hardest in the thin weekend market, when crypto was the only major asset class open for trading.

Two headlines set off the sell-off. Reports emerged of an investigation into Nvidia’s chief executive, raising concerns about the AI trade that has supported risk assets all year. Separately, US-Iran nuclear talks were reported to have collapsed, adding geopolitical risk. With stock markets closed, crypto absorbed the first reaction to both. Nvidia shares fell 4.91% to $177.48 on Monday, which confirmed that the weekend move in crypto anticipated Monday’s equity reaction.

The weekend added to a week of heavy institutional selling. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.28 billion in net outflows from November 2 to 6, the largest weekly withdrawals since late June. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% on November 5 in the selling that followed the November 3 midterm elections. Crypto has traded with high-beta technology stocks through 2026. When the Nasdaq and the AI trade come under pressure, crypto falls harder, and the smaller tokens fall hardest.

XRP sits at the far end of that risk curve. Its price is set mainly by traders on crypto exchanges rather than by long-term institutional holders, so it responds sharply to leverage-driven moves. The weekend liquidations pulled XRP from $1.1620 on Saturday to $1.1105 on Sunday, a 4.4% drop. Monday added another 1.5% on top of that from the Sunday close. The market-wide washout cleared some leverage, which can help a floor form. The selling has not stopped, though, and XRP still carries the extra weight of the hacker’s supply.

XRP Is Falling Harder Than Bitcoin, Ether and Solana

XRP’s underperformance shows up across every time frame. On Monday it lost 5.17% against Bitcoin’s 1.30%, Ether’s 4.72% and Solana’s 2.87%. Over the week from November 2’s close of $1.2478, XRP is down 12.33%. Over 30 days, it is down 21.6%. Against Bitcoin, XRP now trades at about 0.00001465 BTC, or 1,465 satoshis. When a token loses value against Bitcoin during a falling market, it signals that capital is moving to the largest asset as a relative safe haven.

The market values highlight how much XRP has lost relative to the leaders. Bitcoin’s market value stands at $1.501 trillion, Ether’s at $259.07 billion, XRP’s at $69.39 billion and Solana’s at $51.03 billion. XRP is worth about 4.6% of Bitcoin’s market value. A year ago, when XRP traded near $2.37 and Bitcoin was higher, the ratio was well above that level. The steady decline in that share has run all year and has accelerated since October.

The main reason is that XRP lacks a dedicated buyer during sell-offs. Bitcoin has large spot ETFs, corporate treasuries and long-term holders who add on weakness. Ether has a staking yield and its own institutional base. XRP’s spot ETFs hold $1.34 billion, against $95.9 billion in spot Bitcoin funds. That leaves XRP’s price in the hands of exchange traders and large on-chain holders, who tend to sell when momentum turns against them.

The 52-week ranges show the same pattern. Bitcoin’s 52-week low of $57,747.77 sits 22.7% below its current price, so it trades well above its year low. Ether’s low of $1,506.51 is 29.0% below. Solana’s low of $60.41 is 30.2% below. XRP’s low of $0.9884 is just 9.65% below the current price. Among the four, XRP is by far the closest to its 52-week floor, and the most exposed to a break below it.

Relative weakness can reverse quickly when the specific cause fades. If the hacker finishes distributing the remaining 94.5 million XRP and the broader market stabilises, XRP could outperform on the rebound simply because it has fallen furthest. That happened in August, when XRP rallied 52% in three days from near $1.10 while Bitcoin gained far less. A similar move needs a trigger, and none is in sight this week.

Spot XRP ETFs Stall With Zero Inflows Four Days in a Row

Spot XRP ETFs, which the US approved in November 2025, have gone quiet. From November 2 to 6, the funds recorded a net outflow of $529,500, all of it on Monday, November 2. They then posted zero net flows on November 3, 4, 5 and 6. Four straight sessions without any reportable flow is the longest such stretch since August. It shows that new institutional demand has dried up while the price falls.

The trend has been building for weeks. The XRP ETFs took in net inflows every week from the week ending July 17 to the week ending October 9, a streak of 13 straight weeks that lifted cumulative net inflows to about $1.80 billion. September brought $121.4 million in inflows. October brought only $18.8 million, an 84.5% drop. The last positive week was the one ending October 30, at $4.3 million. Since then, nothing new has come in.

That stall matters more for XRP than for Bitcoin because the ETF base is small. With $1.34 billion in net assets, the XRP funds hold about 1.82% of XRP’s market value. They are not big enough to absorb heavy selling, but they were the only steady source of fresh dollars buying XRP through the summer and early autumn. When that source dried up in late October, the price lost one of its few consistent supports. The timing matches the slide from $1.30 to $1.09.

The ETFs also hold up better than the price in one respect. Even during the weakest stretch, the funds have not seen heavy redemptions. The only outflow in the past two weeks was $529,500, a trivial amount against $1.34 billion in assets. Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion in the same week. ETF holders in XRP are not running for the exits. They are simply not adding. That points to a buyers’ strike rather than capitulation, and buyers’ strikes tend to end once prices reach levels that look like value.

The key date to watch is November 13, the first anniversary of the first XRP ETF. That marker will put the one-year inflow total against the $1.81 billion drawn since launch. More practically, the first day of fresh inflows after four straight zeros would show institutional buyers stepping back in. With XRP near $1.09 and the August low in sight, an ETF inflow day would signal that the $1 area is attracting demand.

$1.34 Billion in ETF Assets Against $1.81 Billion of Inflows

A key detail in the XRP ETF data shows how much damage the price decline has done to institutional holders. Cumulative net inflows stand at $1.81 billion, but total net assets have fallen to $1.34 billion. The $470 million gap represents unrealised losses on the tokens the funds bought. On average, ETF investors put money into XRP at prices well above $1.09, and they are sitting on paper losses of about 26%.

The gap widened sharply in recent weeks. On October 30, cumulative net inflows were $1.81 billion against $1.42 billion in net assets. By November 2, net assets were $1.425 billion. By November 6, they had dropped to $1.34 billion, and with XRP’s further 7.1% fall since the November 6 close, the current value is lower again. Inflows have been flat while the value of holdings has shrunk. Each further drop in price deepens the loss for the ETF base.

Underwater institutional holders create two opposing forces. Some holders will sell any rally that brings their positions closer to break-even, adding supply on every bounce. That caps recoveries and helps explain why each rally since September has stalled below the previous one. Other holders, especially those with long time horizons, may average down at lower prices, adding demand near $1. Which group dominates will decide whether the $1 area holds.

The ETF structure also matters for how quickly sentiment can turn. ETF flows report daily, so a shift in institutional appetite becomes visible within 24 hours. In August, XRP’s sharp reversal from $1.10 to $1.68 came alongside renewed ETF inflows. The summer’s 13-week inflow streak began in mid-July, near the bottom of the June and July decline. If the pattern repeats, the first sign of a durable bottom would be a return of daily ETF inflows while the price holds above $1.

For now, ETF data points to caution. Institutional buyers have stepped back, and the ones who bought earlier are underwater. That leaves the price in the hands of exchange traders and on-chain whales, who respond to momentum and to headlines such as the hacker’s wallet activity. Until ETF flows turn positive again, XRP lacks the steady institutional bid it would need to reverse its five-week losing streak.

Ripple National Trust Bank Approval Has Not Reached the Price

Ripple’s biggest regulatory win of the year landed just as XRP’s slide began. On October 26, Ripple announced that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency had granted final approval for Ripple National Trust Bank. That completed a process that began with conditional approval on December 12, 2025, 318 days earlier. The charter gives Ripple a federally supervised platform to hold reserves for its RLUSD stablecoin, worth about $2.6 billion, and to provide digital asset custody to institutions.

The approval puts Ripple in a small group. Circle received final approval for its national trust bank on July 10. On Monday, Coinbase also secured final OCC approval for its own federal trust charter. A national trust bank cannot take deposits or make loans, and RLUSD holders are not bank depositors. The charter does make Ripple a federally regulated custodian, which matters to banks and asset managers that need a supervised counterparty. The OCC’s GENIUS Act stablecoin rule takes effect on January 18, 2027, completing the framework.

The market’s response shows the gap between Ripple the company and XRP the token. XRP traded at $1.3069 on October 26 and $1.3296 on October 27, when the approval was publicly confirmed. That was the last time it closed above $1.32. Within three days, after the Binance hack on October 29, it had fallen to $1.2349. The approval did not create lasting buying pressure, and the price has since fallen 17.7% from the October 27 close.

The disconnect is structural. Ripple’s trust bank supports RLUSD, a dollar stablecoin, and custody services for a range of digital assets. Neither business requires buying XRP. Ripple uses XRP in cross-border payment products, and the XRP Ledger hosts RLUSD alongside Ethereum. A stronger, federally supervised Ripple is good for the XRP ecosystem in the long run. It does not translate directly into token demand in the short run.

Regulatory progress still provides a floor of sorts. Ripple is now among the most heavily regulated crypto firms in the US. Spot XRP ETFs trade on three US exchanges, and CFTC-regulated XRP futures trade on Coinbase Derivatives. XRP’s legal status in the US, once the token’s biggest risk, has been settled. That clarity limits the chance of a regulatory shock pushing XRP below its August low. It does not make the token rise without fresh buying.

Escrow Releases Lift Circulating Supply to 63.52 Billion

XRP’s supply structure adds steady background pressure. XRP has a fixed maximum supply of 100 billion tokens, and no new XRP can be created. At creation, 80 billion went to Ripple Labs and 20 billion to the founders. In 2017, Ripple locked 55 billion XRP into escrow contracts that release up to 1 billion tokens a month. Ripple typically re-locks much of each release, so net releases have averaged 200 to 300 million XRP a month. That is well below the 1 billion monthly cap.

The data show the effect. As of May 13, 2026, circulating supply was about 61.8 billion XRP, according to a fund registration statement filed with the SEC. Circulating supply is now 63.52 billion. That is an increase of about 1.72 billion tokens in just under six months, or roughly 290 million a month, at the top of the historical range. At Monday’s price, the added supply is worth about $1.88 billion. Over the same period, ETFs added only part of that amount in net inflows.

Escrow still holds a large reserve. As of May 2026, 35 to 38 billion XRP remained in escrow, and Ripple held another 6 to 8 billion outside it. Total supply stands at 99.99 billion after about 14 million tokens were burned through transaction fees since launch. The difference between the $69.39 billion market value and the $109.46 billion fully diluted value reflects that locked and treasury supply. Investors are buying into a token whose float grows by about half a percent every month.

Steady supply growth creates a constant need for new demand just to hold the price flat. At 290 million XRP a month and a price of $1.0940, the market must absorb about $317 million of new tokens monthly. When ETF inflows ran at $121.4 million in September, they covered part of that. At $18.8 million in October and near zero in November, they cover almost none. The gap must be filled by exchange buyers, and the price has to fall until enough of them show up.

The hacker’s supply sits on top of that flow. The 139 million XRP the attacker has moved since November 5 equals about half a month of net escrow releases, delivered in four days. The remaining 94.5 million is another third of a month’s releases. The stolen tokens are a temporary shock layered on a permanent drift. Once the hack supply clears, the escrow drift remains, and XRP will need consistent buying to offset it.

Exchange Balances and Whale Withdrawals Point the Other Way

Not all on-chain data is negative. On November 4, about 418.5 million XRP left Binance in a single day, the exchange’s largest one-day XRP outflow in nine months. That surpassed a 315 million XRP withdrawal on October 23. When tokens leave exchanges, holders are usually moving them into self-custody or institutional storage. That points to accumulation, because tokens off exchanges are harder to sell quickly.

The timing is unusual. The November 4 outflow came on the day XRP posted its local high of $1.3353, before the five-day slide began. It also came five days after the Binance hack, when users may have been moving funds off the exchange for security reasons rather than to accumulate. The hack makes this data point harder to read than usual. Some of the outflow likely reflects lost trust in Binance’s custody rather than a bullish view on XRP.

Exchange-held supply has been trending lower for more than a year. As of mid-May 2026, total XRP held on exchanges was estimated at 2.8 to 3.2 billion tokens, a historically low level. ETF custody and long-term holder wallets have absorbed much of the float. Lower exchange balances mean less XRP is readily available to sell. In theory, that should amplify upward moves once demand returns, because sellers will have to come from a smaller pool.

The weakness in the price despite lower exchange balances shows that the active trading float is still large enough to drive the market. Daily volume of $3.40 billion on Monday equals about 3.1 billion XRP, roughly the entire estimated exchange balance. Most of that volume is derivatives, market-making and repeat trading rather than new tokens coming to market. It shows how quickly the available supply can turn over in a sell-off.

The on-chain picture is mixed. Long-term holders and some large wallets are withdrawing tokens, a quiet positive. The hacker’s distribution and steady escrow releases are adding supply, a clear negative. Over the past week, the negatives have dominated the price. If the hacker’s distribution ends and large withdrawals continue, the balance could tip. The November 4 outflow suggests buyers with deep pockets are still active, even if they are not chasing the price higher.

Macro Pressure: Nvidia, Iran and Tuesday’s US CPI

XRP’s next move depends heavily on factors outside crypto. The most immediate is Tuesday’s US consumer price index for October. Fed funds futures assign about 80% probability to a December rate hike, which would lift the target range to 4.00% to 4.25%. A hot CPI reading would push those odds higher and strengthen the dollar. In 2026, that combination has consistently weighed on crypto, with smaller tokens like XRP hit hardest.

The AI trade is the second pressure point. Nvidia’s 4.91% drop to $177.48 on Monday followed the weekend reports about its chief executive. Crypto has tracked technology stocks closely this year, especially when AI names sell off. The Nasdaq Composite’s 5.5% fall on November 5 coincided with XRP’s 7.57% drop that day. If the Nvidia investigation deepens and AI stocks keep falling, crypto will likely follow, and XRP will likely fall further than Bitcoin.

Geopolitics add a third layer. Reports that US-Iran nuclear talks had collapsed raised the risk of renewed conflict in the Middle East. Since the Iran war began in March, Bitcoin has more often fallen than risen during oil rallies. Higher oil prices feed inflation, push up rate expectations and drain liquidity from speculative assets. A fresh oil spike would add to the pressure on XRP, which sits far out on the crypto risk spectrum.

Institutional flows tie these pressures together. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion from November 2 to 6, the largest weekly outflow since late June. Spot Solana ETFs extended their outflow streak to five weeks after losing $143.71 million in October. When institutional investors pull money from the largest crypto products, smaller assets rarely attract new capital. The zero-flow week in XRP ETFs fits that broader retreat.

A positive surprise in any of these areas could change the picture quickly. A soft CPI reading would cut December rate hike odds and lift risk assets. A rebound in Nvidia and the AI trade would ease pressure on crypto. Any sign of renewed US-Iran diplomacy would calm oil. XRP, at 9.65% above its 52-week low after a 21.6% monthly decline, has the most room to bounce if the macro backdrop improves. The risk is that the backdrop worsens before it improves.

Technical Map Above: $1.1224, $1.1620 and the $1.25 Shelf

The first resistance level for XRP is Monday’s intraday high of $1.1224, 2.6% above the current price. A recovery through $1.1224 would put the token back above Sunday’s close of $1.1105 and Monday’s open of $1.1111. That would reverse the day’s damage. The next level is $1.1620, Saturday’s close and the bottom of the November 7 range, 6.2% above the current price. Clearing $1.1620 would end the five-day losing streak.

Above $1.1620 sits $1.1781, the November 6 close, followed by $1.2060, the November 5 close. That level marks the point where the hacker’s distribution began and where the selling became heavy. Reclaiming $1.2060 would need a 10.2% rally from current levels. It would signal that the market had absorbed the stolen supply. Volume during any move toward $1.2060 would need to match or exceed Monday’s $3.40 billion to be credible.

The major resistance zone sits between $1.2478 and $1.2544. XRP held that shelf from October 30 to November 2, closing at $1.2544, $1.2501, $1.2499 and $1.2478 on consecutive days. Four closes inside a seven-tenths-of-a-cent band show a level buyers defended until it broke. It now acts as resistance. A move back above $1.25 would require a 14.3% gain and would put XRP back where it traded before the hacker began selling.

Beyond the shelf, the next targets are $1.3047, the November 4 close, and $1.3353, the November 4 intraday high. Reaching $1.3353 would mean a 22.1% rally. That would likely require both a completed hacker distribution and a return of ETF inflows. Above that, the October 21 high of $1.3966 and the $1.40 level mark the top of the autumn range. A return to $1.40 would recover the whole October decline and is not a realistic near-term target.

Momentum indicators remain bearish. The daily relative strength index stood at 29 on November 7, below the 30 level that marks oversold conditions, and the further decline since then has pushed it lower. Oversold readings can last for weeks in a downtrend. They often precede sharp short-covering rallies, though. A bounce toward $1.1620 to $1.1781 is a reasonable expectation once selling pressure eases. A sustained move above $1.2060 needs a catalyst.

Technical Map Below: $1.0785, $1 and the $0.9884 Floor

The first support level is Monday’s intraday low of $1.0785, just 1.4% below the current price. That is the lowest price since August 19. A daily close below $1.0785 would confirm a new leg lower and open the path toward the August consolidation zone. The next marker is $1.0597 to $1.0605, where XRP closed on July 31 and August 1, during the late-summer drift toward $1.

The critical level is $1, a psychological round number and the floor buyers defended through August. XRP traded within a few cents of $1 from August 12 to August 19, with closes of $1.0044, $0.9980, $1.0014, $0.9920, $1.0026 and $1.0014. That cluster shows how much demand sat there. A test of $1 from the current price would mean a further 8.6% decline. Given the pace of the last five days, that could happen within a week.

Below $1, the 52-week low of $0.9884, set on August 14, is the floor. A drop there would mean a 9.65% decline from the current price. Just above it, the August 18 low of $0.9891 and the August 19 low of $0.9959 strengthen the zone. Three separate lows within 0.75 cents of each other make $0.9884 to $0.9959 a strong support band. A daily close below $0.9884 would put XRP at its lowest level in more than a year.

A break below that band would leave little nearby support. The next significant levels would come from 2024’s trading range, well below current prices. A clean break of $0.9884 would likely set off another round of liquidations, as stop-loss orders and leveraged long positions clustered around $1 are triggered. That could produce a fast move toward $0.90. That scenario requires the hacker’s remaining supply, weak ETF demand and a poor macro backdrop to combine. All three are present now.

The downside map points to a clear trading framework. Holding $1.0785 on a daily close would suggest Monday’s flush has run its course. Losing it would point to $1. The $1 to $0.9884 band is where the August buyers stepped in, and it is where the market will test whether they return. A strong bounce from that zone on rising volume would mark the most likely bottom for the move. A break below it on heavy volume would turn a correction into a breakdown.

Event Risk and the Verdict on XRP

The calendar for the next week is full. US CPI on Tuesday, November 10, will set the tone for rate expectations and risk appetite. Daily XRP ETF flow data will show whether institutional buyers return after four straight zero sessions. November 13 marks the first anniversary of the first XRP ETF. Throughout the week, on-chain data from the hacker’s wallets will show how much of the remaining 94.5 million XRP is still to come to market. Weekly escrow releases will add their usual 60 to 75 million tokens.

The bear case is clear. XRP has fallen 18.07% from its November 4 high, 21.6% in a month and 40.54% in 2026. It has closed five straight weeks lower. The Binance hacker has sold about $151 million of stolen XRP and still holds 94.5 million tokens. Spot ETFs have gone four sessions without a single dollar of inflows, and ETF holders sit on about $470 million in paper losses. Circulating supply is growing by about 290 million tokens a month. The broader market is at August lows after $1 billion in liquidations. XRP is the weakest of the four largest non-stablecoin assets.

The bull case rests on positioning and history. XRP trades just 9.65% above its 52-week low of $0.9884, a level that held through August and produced a 52% rally in three days. Daily momentum readings are deeply oversold. About 418.5 million XRP left Binance on November 4, the largest one-day outflow in nine months. Ripple has its federal trust charter, and regulatory risk to the token is settled. The hacker’s supply is finite, and once it clears, the main XRP-specific source of selling disappears.

On balance, the near-term risk still points lower before it turns. The hacker overhang, the ETF stall and the macro backdrop all lean against buyers this week. The $1 area offers a well-defined level where demand has appeared before. That makes the August zone the most likely place for a durable bottom to form, rather than the current $1.09 level.

The verdict on XRP is bearish in the short term from $1.0940, with a buy zone at $1.00 to $0.9884. A daily close below Monday’s $1.0785 low targets $1.00 within days. A strong reaction from the $1.00 to $0.9884 band on rising volume and renewed ETF inflows would set up a recovery toward $1.1620 and then the $1.25 shelf. A daily close below $0.9884 cancels the buy zone and opens $0.90. On the upside, only a daily close back above $1.2060 would end the downtrend, and that needs the hacker’s distribution to finish and ETF inflows to return. Until then, rallies toward $1.16 to $1.18 are selling opportunities, and $1 is the line that decides XRP’s direction into year-end.

That's TradingNEWS