SCHD ETF Holds Up in the Sell-Off, but Texas Instruments, a 15.64% Healthcare Weight and 1.95% Dividend Growth Cap the Upside — $35

The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF traded at $35.30 on Friday, down 0.34% from Thursday’s close of $35.42. On Thursday, SCHD fell 2.18%, or $0.79, its largest one-day drop in weeks, a day after it closed at a record $36.21. The fund is now 2.5% below that record. It still has one of its best years since launch: SCHD started 2026 at $27.52 and is up 28.3% on price alone, with total return above 34% including dividends. It holds $120.70 billion in assets, charges 0.06% a year and pays a trailing dividend of $1.05 per share, a yield of 2.97%.

Thursday showed what SCHD is designed to do. On a day when the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Nasdaq lost 5.52%, SCHD dropped 2.18%, half as much as the broad market. Its five-year beta of 0.57 means it moves a little more than half as much as the S&P 500 on average. Investors who rotated out of technology stocks into dividend payers in October, when SCHD gained 9.6% for the month, got the protection they paid for.

Our thesis is that SCHD’s defensive profile is weaker than its reputation, and two of its key sectors face new risks after the midterm elections. Texas Instruments is the fund’s largest holding at 4.80%, and Qualcomm adds 3.79%. On Thursday, those chip stocks fell with the Philadelphia semiconductor index, which dropped more than 12%. Healthcare holdings Amgen, UnitedHealth, Abbott and Merck make up 15.64% of the fund, and a Democratic Congress brings drug-pricing and insurance reform back into play. Energy holdings Chevron and ConocoPhillips add 8.27%, and Brent crude fell 12% to 16% this week.

The rate backdrop also works against SCHD’s main selling point. The ten-year Treasury yield is 4.90%, 1.93 percentage points above SCHD’s dividend yield. The Fed is priced at 74.8% to raise rates on December 9 after Friday’s strong jobs report. Investors seeking income can earn more from Treasuries than from SCHD, without equity risk. SCHD needs dividend growth and price gains to compete, and its dividend grew just 1.95% over the past year.

Our base case through the December 9 Fed decision and SCHD’s December dividend is a range of $34.00 to $37.00, with a midpoint of $35.50. A rotation out of technology into value stocks would carry SCHD back above its record and toward $38.00, 7.6% higher. A Fed hike, a deeper semiconductor sell-off and pressure on healthcare stocks from Washington would send it toward $33.00, 6.5% lower.

The Week: $35.78 to a $36.21 Record, Then Down to $35.30

SCHD came into November near its highs. It closed October at $35.78, after a 9.6% monthly gain driven by a rotation from technology stocks into dividend payers. That followed a 6.5% decline in September, when the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 and energy prices spiked. Through the end of October, the fund had gained in seven of ten months in 2026.

The first days of November were mixed. On Monday, November 2, SCHD rose 0.31% to $35.90. On Tuesday, it fell 0.53% to $35.55 as the midterm elections got under way and Texas Instruments, its largest holding, dropped 7.59%. The stock’s decline came after weak guidance from chipmakers, and it pulled SCHD lower even as most of the fund’s other holdings rose. Procter & Gamble gained 1.89%, Coca-Cola 1.42% and Chevron 1.79% that day.

Wednesday brought the record. As the market initially read the midterm results as positive, SCHD rose 1.86% to close at $36.21, its highest close ever. It opened at $35.96 and traded as high as $36.21. Investors bought defensive stocks with strong balance sheets as Treasury yields fell and oil dropped 8.7%. Consumer staples and healthcare holdings led the gain.

Thursday reversed it. Once Democrats’ sweep of both chambers was confirmed, the Nasdaq fell 5.52% on fears of AI and data-center regulation, and semiconductors led the decline. SCHD opened at $36.31, fell to $35.40 and closed at $35.42, down 2.18%. Volume reached 40.70 million shares, well above average. The drop was half the size of the S&P 500’s 4.36% decline, but it was SCHD’s largest one-day fall in weeks.

Friday was quieter. SCHD traded at $35.30 at midday, down 0.34%, after the October jobs report showed 165,000 new jobs and pushed Treasury yields higher. Higher yields make dividend stocks less attractive relative to bonds. For the week, SCHD is down 1.3% from the October 30 close of $35.78 and 2.5% below Wednesday’s record. It held up better than the broad market but not as well as its defensive reputation suggests.

Inside the Fund: 100 Stocks, 41.38% in the Top 10

SCHD tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, which selects 100 US companies based on four factors: cash flow to total debt, return on equity, dividend yield and five-year dividend growth rate. Companies must have paid dividends for at least 10 consecutive years to qualify. The index reconstitutes annually in March and rebalances quarterly. According to Schwab, the fund holds roughly 100 stocks with a combined value of $120.70 billion.

The portfolio is concentrated at the top. The 10 largest holdings make up 41.38% of assets. Texas Instruments leads at 4.80%, followed by Procter & Gamble at 4.29%, Coca-Cola at 4.20%, Chevron at 4.16%, ConocoPhillips at 4.11%, Home Depot at 4.10%, Amgen at 4.07%, UnitedHealth at 3.96%, Abbott Laboratories at 3.87% and PepsiCo at 3.82%. Qualcomm, Merck, Accenture and Verizon round out the top 15, which together make up 59.29% of the fund.

Sector exposure is spread across defensive and cyclical industries. Consumer staples, through Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, make up 12.31% of the fund in the top 10 alone. Healthcare, through Amgen, UnitedHealth, Abbott and Merck, makes up 15.64% in the top 15. Energy, through Chevron and ConocoPhillips, makes up 8.27%. Technology, through Texas Instruments, Qualcomm and Accenture, makes up 12.29%. Home Depot gives the fund exposure to housing and consumer spending.

The selection rules produce a portfolio of financially strong, high-quality companies. High cash flow relative to debt means the companies can keep paying dividends in a downturn. High return on equity means they are profitable. The five-year dividend growth screen favours companies that have been raising payouts, not just paying high yields. The fund’s price-to-earnings ratio is 18.20 on trailing earnings and 14.67 on forward earnings, well below the S&P 500’s.

For the forecast, the concentration in a few holdings matters. A 10% move in Texas Instruments moves SCHD by roughly 0.48%. A 10% move across the four healthcare stocks in the top 15 moves it by 1.56%. On Thursday, the combination of falling chip stocks and steady staples produced a 2.18% decline. The fund’s direction over the next six weeks will depend on whether its chip, healthcare and energy holdings recover or face more pressure.

The Dividend: $1.05 Trailing, $0.2665 in September, 1.95% Growth

SCHD pays dividends quarterly, in March, June, September and December. Over the past 12 months, it has paid $1.05 per share. At $35.30, that is a trailing yield of 2.97%. The most recent payment was $0.2665 per share, with an ex-dividend date of September 23 and a payment date of September 28. The June dividend was $0.2525 and the March dividend was $0.2569. The September payment was 5.5% higher than June’s.

Annualizing the September dividend gives $1.066 per share, a forward yield of 3.02% at the current price. The December payment will complete the 2026 total. The trailing $1.05 includes a December 2025 payment of $0.2741, which was larger than any of the three 2026 payments so far. For the 2026 total to exceed 2025’s, the December payment needs to be at least $0.2741. December dividends are often the largest of the year for SCHD because many holdings raise their payouts late in the year.

Dividend growth has slowed. Over the past 12 months, SCHD’s dividend grew 1.95%. The three-year average growth rate is 7.81% and the five-year compound rate is 7.52%. The slowdown reflects the March 2026 reconstitution, which replaced some high-growth payers with others, and slower dividend increases from energy companies after oil prices fell from their spring highs. A growth rate below 2% barely keeps pace with inflation of 3.7%.

The payout ratio gives room for growth. SCHD’s holdings pay out 54.52% of their earnings as dividends on average, leaving 45% for reinvestment, buybacks and debt reduction. Companies selected for high cash flow relative to debt and high return on equity can usually sustain and raise dividends even in a slowdown. Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo have raised their dividends for decades. Chevron and ConocoPhillips have raised theirs through oil price cycles.

For the forecast, the dividend sets a floor under SCHD’s price. A yield near 3% attracts income investors when the price falls, and a falling price raises the yield. At $33.00, SCHD would yield 3.18% on trailing dividends. At $38.00, it would yield 2.76%. The December dividend announcement, expected around the third week of December, will show whether growth is recovering. A payment above $0.2741 would support the price. A payment below it would raise questions about the fund’s income story.

The Rate Problem: 2.97% Yield Against a 4.90% 10-Year

SCHD’s main competitor is the bond market. The ten-year Treasury yield rose to 4.90% after Friday’s jobs report, and the two-year yield is 4.54%. Investors can lock in 4.90% a year for a decade with no default risk. SCHD’s 2.97% dividend yield is 1.93 percentage points lower. For income investors, the choice between SCHD and Treasuries now favours Treasuries unless they expect substantial price gains or faster dividend growth.

The gap has widened through 2026. When SCHD started the year at $27.52, its trailing yield was 3.82%, close to the ten-year yield at the time. The fund’s 28.3% price gain has cut its yield by 0.85 percentage points. Over the same period, Treasury yields have risen as the Fed turned from cutting to hiking. Dividend stocks typically struggle when bond yields rise, because their income looks less attractive in comparison.

The Fed makes the problem worse. Friday’s jobs report showed 165,000 new jobs against a 70,000 consensus and unemployment falling to 4.1%. Futures now price a 74.8% chance that the Fed will raise rates on December 9, which would take the Fed funds rate to 4.00% to 4.25%. Money-market funds and short-term Treasuries already pay close to 4%. For investors who want income without equity risk, SCHD’s 2.97% looks expensive.

Dividend growth is SCHD’s answer. A bond’s coupon is fixed. SCHD’s dividend has grown at 7.52% a year over five years. An investor who buys SCHD at a 2.97% yield and receives 7% annual dividend growth would earn a yield on cost above 5.8% within 10 years. That compounding is the reason long-term investors hold dividend growth funds rather than bonds. But it requires dividend growth to return to its historical pace, and the past year’s 1.95% is far below it.

For the forecast, rates are the main headwind. A soft CPI print on Tuesday and a pullback in Treasury yields would make SCHD’s yield more competitive and support the price. A hot print and a ten-year yield above 5% would push income investors further toward bonds. Dividend ETFs have tended to underperform when the ten-year yield rises above 4.5%, and it is now 4.90%.

Texas Instruments and Qualcomm: The Chip Exposure in a Dividend Fund

SCHD’s largest holding is a semiconductor company. Texas Instruments makes up 4.80% of the fund, and Qualcomm adds 3.79%. Together, they account for 8.59% of SCHD’s assets, more than any single sector except healthcare and consumer staples. Both companies qualify for the index because they have long dividend histories, high returns on equity and strong cash flows. Texas Instruments has raised its dividend for more than two decades.

The chip exposure hurt this week. On Tuesday, November 3, Texas Instruments fell 7.59% to $287.85 after weak guidance from the chip sector. On Thursday, the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell more than 12%, its worst day in years, as fears of AI regulation hit the entire industry. SCHD’s chip holdings fell with the sector, and they accounted for a large share of the fund’s 2.18% decline.

Texas Instruments and Qualcomm are not AI chip companies in the way that the sector’s leaders are. Texas Instruments makes analog and embedded processors used in cars, industrial equipment and consumer electronics. Qualcomm makes processors and modems for smartphones and is expanding into PCs and cars. Their businesses are cyclical and tied to industrial and consumer demand rather than AI data centers. But in a sector-wide sell-off, investors sell all chip stocks.

The chip holdings add growth to SCHD. Texas Instruments and Qualcomm have higher earnings growth potential than most of the fund’s consumer staples and energy holdings. When chip demand recovers, they lift SCHD’s returns. In 2026, the semiconductor rally helped SCHD outperform other dividend funds. That same exposure now adds volatility at a time when investors are using SCHD to reduce it.

For the forecast, the chip holdings are a source of both upside and risk. A recovery in semiconductors after Thursday’s sell-off would lift SCHD by 0.5% to 1% on its own. A continued decline, driven by AI regulation fears or weaker industrial demand, would weigh on the fund. Investors looking at SCHD as a pure defensive holding should know that 8.59% of it moves with the chip sector.

Healthcare: 15.64% in Amgen, UnitedHealth, Abbott and Merck

Healthcare is SCHD’s largest sector exposure among its top holdings. Amgen makes up 4.07%, UnitedHealth 3.96%, Abbott Laboratories 3.87% and Merck 3.74%. Together, they account for 15.64% of the fund. All four have long dividend histories and strong cash flows, and healthcare is traditionally a defensive sector, since people need medical care regardless of the economy.

The midterm results change the outlook for the sector. Democrats will control both chambers of Congress from January 3, 2027. Drug pricing has been a Democratic priority for years, and Medicare drug-price negotiations, which began under earlier legislation, could be expanded to more drugs and faster timelines. That would affect pharmaceutical companies like Amgen and Merck. Health insurance reform, including rules on Medicare Advantage payments, could affect UnitedHealth.

UnitedHealth has already been under pressure. The company has faced rising medical costs, regulatory scrutiny of its Medicare Advantage business and investigations into its billing practices. Its weight in SCHD has fallen as its share price declined. A Democratic Congress focused on insurers’ profits would add to that pressure. Abbott, which makes medical devices, diagnostics and nutrition products, is less exposed to drug-pricing and insurance rules.

A divided government limits how far reform can go. The president can veto legislation, and major healthcare changes would need bipartisan support. Most drug-pricing changes would take years to affect company earnings. But markets price risk ahead of time, and healthcare stocks tend to underperform when the political risk rises. Merck, Amgen and UnitedHealth all have significant exposure to Medicare.

For the forecast, healthcare is a slow-moving risk. It will not move SCHD sharply in the next six weeks unless Democratic leaders announce specific plans. Over 2027, drug-pricing legislation, Medicare Advantage reform and investigations could weigh on the sector. SCHD’s 15.64% exposure to these four stocks means healthcare will drag on the fund’s returns if Washington turns against the industry.

Energy: Chevron and ConocoPhillips at 8.27% With Oil Falling

Energy is SCHD’s third major sector exposure. Chevron makes up 4.16% of the fund and ConocoPhillips 4.11%, together 8.27%. Both companies pay high dividends and have strong balance sheets, and they qualify for the index because of their cash flows and dividend growth. Energy gave SCHD a significant boost earlier in 2026, when the Iran war pushed oil prices above $120 a barrel in March.

Oil prices have fallen sharply this week. Brent crude dropped from above $110 on Monday to $94.62 on Wednesday, its lowest close since August 31, as traders priced a US-Iran peace deal after the midterms. Brent traded at $97.02 on Friday, down 12% to 16% for the week. WTI settled near $90.52 on Thursday. Lower oil prices reduce energy companies’ revenue and cash flow, which can slow dividend growth.

Chevron and ConocoPhillips are well positioned for lower prices. Both have cut costs and reduced debt since the 2020 oil crash, and both can cover their dividends at oil prices well below current levels. Chevron rose 1.79% on Tuesday as the market rotated into defensive stocks. Their dividends are not at risk at $90 to $100 oil. But their dividend growth would slow, and share buybacks, which have supported their stock prices, could be scaled back.

A US-Iran deal would push oil lower. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and Iranian exports resume, Brent could fall toward $85, and the International Energy Agency expects a large oil surplus in 2027. That would weigh on Chevron and ConocoPhillips and reduce SCHD’s dividend growth. A renewed US strike on Iran would push oil back above $110 and lift energy stocks, but it would also hurt the broader market.

For the forecast, energy is a hedge within SCHD. When oil rises, energy stocks lift the fund even if the rest of the market falls. When oil falls, energy stocks drag on returns but the rest of the fund benefits from lower costs and inflation. At 8.27%, the energy weight is large enough to matter but not to dominate. Falling oil this week was a small negative for SCHD, offset by gains in consumer staples.

Consumer Staples and Home Depot: The Core Defensive Holdings

The heart of SCHD’s defensive profile is its consumer staples holdings. Procter & Gamble makes up 4.29% of the fund, Coca-Cola 4.20% and PepsiCo 3.82%. Together, they account for 12.31%. All three sell products people buy regardless of the economy: household goods, beverages and snacks. All three have raised their dividends for decades. Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola are among the longest-running dividend growers in the US market.

These holdings did their job this week. On Tuesday, Procter & Gamble rose 1.89% to $170.48 and Coca-Cola gained 1.42% to $97.16 while Texas Instruments fell 7.59%. On Wednesday, staples led SCHD to its record close. On Thursday, they fell less than the broad market. Consumer staples tend to outperform when investors worry about growth or market volatility, and both concerns rose this week.

Staples face their own pressures. High energy prices earlier in the year raised their costs for packaging, transportation and raw materials. Consumers facing higher prices have shifted to cheaper store brands in some categories. Coca-Cola and PepsiCo have raised prices to protect margins, which has slowed volume growth. Weight-loss drugs have raised questions about long-term demand for snacks and sugary drinks.

Home Depot adds exposure to housing. At 4.10%, it is SCHD’s sixth-largest holding. Home Depot’s sales depend on home improvement spending, which is tied to housing turnover and mortgage rates. With mortgage rates elevated and housing sales weak, Home Depot’s growth has slowed. A Fed hike in December would keep mortgage rates high. Falling rates in 2027 would help Home Depot, but that is a longer-term story.

For the forecast, the staples holdings are SCHD’s anchor. They give the fund its low beta and its stable dividend base. In a market sell-off, they cushion the decline. In a rally led by technology, they hold the fund back. With 12.31% in three staples companies and 4.10% in Home Depot, SCHD will continue to fall less than the market in a sell-off and rise less in a rebound.

Valuation: 18.20 Times Earnings, 14.67 Forward, Record Inflows

SCHD is cheap relative to the broader market but no longer cheap relative to its own history. The fund trades at 18.20 times trailing earnings and 14.67 times forward earnings. The S&P 500 trades at a much higher multiple, driven by technology stocks. SCHD’s forward multiple of 14.67 is in line with large-cap value funds and below the market average.

The 28.3% price gain in 2026 has expanded SCHD’s valuation. At the start of the year, the fund’s holdings traded at lower multiples and its yield was 3.82%. Price gains have outpaced earnings and dividend growth, pushing the yield down and the P/E up. SCHD’s trailing yield of 2.97% is near its lowest level in several years. Investors are paying more for each dollar of dividends than they were in January.

Inflows have supported the price. SCHD has become one of the largest dividend ETFs in the market, with $120.70 billion in assets and 3.40 billion shares outstanding. Assets were $85.49 billion in April, so the fund has added more than $35 billion in seven months through price gains and new money. Investors rotating out of technology stocks and into dividend payers have favoured SCHD because of its low fee and quality screens.

Record inflows can reverse. When investors pile into a fund for its defensive qualities, they expect it to hold up in a sell-off. Thursday’s 2.18% decline was less than the market’s, but SCHD investors who bought near the record lost money quickly. If the fund underperforms the market in a recovery, some of that new money could leave. The fund’s growing popularity makes it more sensitive to sentiment than it was.

For the forecast, SCHD’s valuation leaves limited room for multiple expansion. Further gains will need to come from earnings growth, dividend growth or a further rotation into value stocks. A forward P/E of 14.67 provides a reasonable floor, since it is not expensive. But the fund will not repeat 2026’s 28.3% gain without another large rotation out of technology, and the conditions for that rotation are less favourable with Treasury yields at 4.90%.

The Technical Map: $36.21 Resistance, $35.40 and $34.00 Support

SCHD’s record close of $36.21 on Wednesday is the first resistance. The fund opened at $36.31 on Thursday, above the record, before falling. A daily close above $36.31 would mark a new high and point to $37.00 and then $38.00. From $35.30, $36.21 is 2.6% higher, $37.00 is 4.8% higher and $38.00 is 7.6% higher.

Support starts at $35.40, Thursday’s intraday low, and $35.44, Tuesday’s intraday low. Friday’s trading at $35.30 is just below both, so the first support zone is being tested. A daily close below $35.40 would point to $35.00 and then $34.00, the bottom of our base-case range. Below that, $33.00 and the July close of $32.70 are the next supports. From $35.30, $34.00 is 3.7% lower and $33.00 is 6.5% lower.

The trend is up. SCHD has risen from $27.52 at the end of 2025 to $35.30, with only three monthly declines in 2026: March, June and September. The September decline of 6.5% was the largest, and the fund recovered it with a 9.6% gain in October. The pattern of higher highs and higher lows remains intact unless the fund falls below its September low.

Volume points to a shift in sentiment. Thursday’s volume of 40.70 million shares was well above average, as investors sold SCHD alongside the broader market. High volume on a down day after a record suggests some profit-taking by investors who bought during the October rally. A recovery on lower volume would suggest that selling is exhausted. A further decline on high volume would point to a deeper correction.

SCHD’s low volatility means the levels are close together. A typical daily move is 0.5% to 1%, and Thursday’s 2.18% was unusually large. The fund rarely moves more than 3% in a week. Traders should treat the $35.40 to $36.21 range as the near-term band and look for a break of either end. The December ex-dividend date will lower the price by the size of the dividend, likely between $0.27 and $0.29, which should be factored into any technical analysis.

Scenario Map: $38.00 Upside, $34.00–$37.00 Base, $33.00 Downside

Our forecast covers the period through the December 9 Fed decision and SCHD’s December dividend, with three scenarios.

The base case, at 50% probability, is a range of $34.00 to $37.00, with a midpoint of $35.50. In this scenario, the equity market stabilizes after Thursday’s sell-off and the Fed hikes on December 9 as priced. Treasury yields stay between 4.70% and 5.00%. Chip stocks recover part of their losses, healthcare holds steady, and staples continue to provide stability. SCHD trades around its current level and pays a December dividend close to $0.2741.

The bullish case, at 25% probability, is a rally to $38.00, 7.6% above the current price. This would need a soft CPI print that lowers Treasury yields and the December hike odds, a further rotation out of technology into value stocks, and a recovery in Texas Instruments and Qualcomm. A December dividend above $0.28 would add support. SCHD would break above its $36.21 record and set new highs into year-end.

The bearish case, at 25% probability, is a fall to $33.00, 6.5% below the current price. This would follow a hot CPI print that pushes the ten-year yield above 5% and locks in the December hike, a further semiconductor sell-off, Democratic announcements on drug pricing that hit healthcare stocks, and oil falling toward $85 on a US-Iran deal. Income investors would shift to Treasuries, and the fund’s yield would rise to 3.18%.

From $35.30, the risk-reward is balanced. The bullish target is 7.6% away, the bearish target 6.5% away, and the two scenarios carry equal probability. The base-case midpoint of $35.50 is 0.6% above the current price. The signals that will decide which scenario plays out, in order of importance, are the ten-year Treasury yield, Tuesday’s CPI, the Fed’s December 9 decision, semiconductor stocks, and the December dividend announcement.

Verdict: Neutral, Buy Dips Toward $34.00–$34.50, Trim Above $36.50

SCHD at $35.30 sits 2.5% below its record close of $36.21, set on Wednesday. It fell 2.18% on Thursday, half the S&P 500’s 4.36% decline, showing the defensive qualities that attract income investors. It is up 28.3% on price in 2026 and holds $120.70 billion in assets at a fee of 0.06%. Its trailing dividend of $1.05 gives a yield of 2.97%, and its forward P/E of 14.67 is well below the market’s.

The defensive profile has gaps. Texas Instruments and Qualcomm make up 8.59% of the fund and fell with the semiconductor sector this week. Amgen, UnitedHealth, Abbott and Merck make up 15.64% and face drug-pricing and insurance reform risk under a Democratic Congress. Chevron and ConocoPhillips make up 8.27% and are exposed to falling oil. Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, at 12.31%, are the fund’s strongest defensive holdings.

The rate backdrop is the bigger problem. The ten-year Treasury yield of 4.90% is 1.93 percentage points above SCHD’s dividend yield, and the Fed is priced at 74.8% to hike in December. Dividend growth slowed to 1.95% over the past year, below inflation of 3.7%. SCHD needs faster dividend growth or lower yields to compete with bonds for income investors.

Our call is neutral. We would buy dips toward $34.00 to $34.50, where the trailing yield rises above 3.04%, and trim above $36.50, within a base-case range of $34.00 to $37.00 and a midpoint target of $35.50 through the December dividend. A daily close above $36.31 would open $38.00. A close below $34.00 would point to $33.00 and the July level of $32.70. SCHD remains one of the best low-cost dividend funds available, but at a 2.97% yield against a 4.90% Treasury, the 2026 rally has priced in most of the good news.

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