Solana Rebounds 7.6% From Its June Trendline as Alpenglow Goes Live — Close Above $98.08 Opens $103.81

Solana Rebounds 7.6% From Its June Trendline as Alpenglow Goes Live — Close Above $98.08 Opens $103.81

Spot Solana ETFs lost a record $143.7M in October before flows flattened this week | That's TradingNEWS

Itai Smidt 11/4/2026 12:08:57 PM
Crypto SOL/USD SOL USD

Key Points

  • Solana rose 3.09% to $96.52 after bouncing from an intraday low of $89.73 on its June trendline.
  • Spot Solana ETFs posted zero flows on November 2 and 3 after a record $71.47 million weekly outflow.
  • Alpenglow went live on October 21, cutting transaction finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds.

Solana tested the trendline that has held it up since June and bounced hard. The token dipped to an intraday low of $89.73 early Wednesday as election results confirmed a Democratic sweep of Congress, then rallied as Bitcoin recovered above $79,000 and risk appetite returned across crypto. By 10:47 a.m. ET, SOL traded at $96.52, up $2.89 or 3.09% on the day, on $1.77 billion in 24-hour volume. The recovery from the low totals $6.79, or 7.6%, in a single session.

At $96.52, Solana carries a market value of $57.0 billion on a circulating supply of 590.2 million tokens, ranking seventh among cryptocurrencies. The token remains 67.1% below its all-time high of $293.31.

The damage over the past month has been severe. SOL has fallen 24.2% over 30 days and 9.4% over seven days. It traded near $124 at its late-September high, which puts Wednesday’s level 22% below that peak. Solana fell below $100 after the October 29 Binance hack and traded as low as $91.39 on November 3.

The broader crypto rebound lifted everything on Wednesday. Ether climbed to $2,320 to $2,430, XRP pushed to $1.31 to $1.32, and Bitcoin reached $79,000 to $80,424. Solana’s 3.09% gain roughly matched XRP and trailed ether, consistent with its position as a high-beta asset that follows Bitcoin’s direction.

The pressure on SOL over the past month has come from four sources. Spot ETF outflows hit a record, selling tied to the $6.3 billion Binance theft weighed on large-cap tokens, leveraged long positions were unwound, and the technical structure broke down below all major moving averages.

The forecast runs from one thesis. Solana is deeply oversold, with its daily RSI at 26.13 on November 3, the lowest reading in months, while sitting on a trendline that has held since June. ETF outflows paused with zero flows on November 2 and 3. The network just activated Alpenglow, its largest protocol change since launch, and leads all chains in decentralized exchange volume for a 15th straight month. The bounce from $89.73 is the setup. A reclaim of the 200-day EMA at $98.08 targets $103.60 to $103.81. A break back below $89.73 points to $85.35.

The Trendline Test: $90 Holds as RSI Drops to 26

Wednesday’s low at $89.73 marks the most important test of Solana’s chart in months. The token has followed a rising trendline since June, and the $90 area represents that trendline’s current level. A break below it would have ended a five-month uptrend structure. Buyers defended the level within hours, pushing SOL back above $92 and then above $96.

The momentum readings show deep oversold conditions. The 14-day RSI hit 26.13 on November 3, an oversold daily reading, and stood near 29.50 early Wednesday. Readings below 30 historically mark exhaustion points for selling pressure, though they don’t guarantee immediate reversals. An RSI recovery above 40 would be one sign that selling pressure is easing; a bullish MACD crossover would be another. Neither signal had appeared as of Wednesday morning.

The Bollinger Band structure confirms the extreme. The daily chart showed SOL breaking down below its previously rising trendline in late October and moving into the lower Bollinger Band, with the lower band near $91.39. When price hugs the lower band while RSI sits below 30, the selloff has typically reached a stretched state.

The moving average picture is bearish but close. As of November 2, SOL traded below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages at $103.81, $99.96 and $98.08. At $96.52, the token sits just $1.56, or 1.6%, below the 200-day EMA. Reclaiming that level would be the first sign that the downtrend is ending.

The structure from September explains the setup. SOL rallied to $124 in late September, then fell through October as ETF outflows built and the Binance hack hit. The 28% decline from $124 to $89.73 took the token from overbought to oversold in five weeks.

The downside if the trendline fails is defined. A bearish scenario targets $85.35, below Wednesday’s low. Below that, the June lows mark the next major support zone.

For the forecast, the trendline test matters because it’s the line between a correction and a breakdown. Holding $89.73 with RSI below 30 sets up a relief rally toward the moving averages. Losing it would confirm that the uptrend from June is over.

Record ETF Outflows: $71.47 Million in a Week, $143.7 Million in October

Spot Solana ETFs have been the clearest source of selling pressure. U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded $71.47 million in net outflows for the week of October 26 to 30, the largest weekly withdrawal since the products launched and the fourth consecutive week of net outflows. October’s outflows totaled $143.7 million, the funds’ largest monthly outflow since launch. October was the first consistently negative month for the Solana funds.

The outflows concentrated in the two largest funds. Bitwise’s Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) led withdrawals with $45.82 million for the week, leaving its cumulative net inflows at $1.12 billion. Grayscale’s Solana Trust (GSOL) followed with $25.71 million in outflows and $128 million in cumulative inflows. Morgan Stanley’s MSOL posted the only reported weekly inflow, a token $49,300, with cumulative inflows of $43.11 million.

The heaviest single day came on October 29, the day of the Binance hack. The funds recorded $27.69 million in net outflows that Thursday, with BSOL accounting for $23.68 million and GSOL for $4.01 million. Friday, October 30, added another $10.8 million in outflows.

The bleeding has stopped for now. All seven funds, BSOL, VSOL, FSOL, TSOL, SOEZ, MSOL and GSOL, posted zero net flows on Monday, November 2, and again on Tuesday, November 3. The five-session outflow total narrowed from $63.4 million through November 2 to $44.2 million through November 3 as the October 29 outflow day rolled out of the window.

The cumulative picture remains substantial. Cumulative net flows since launch stand at $1.46 billion. Across the funds, net assets total $1.40 billion, equal to 2.49% of SOL’s market cap.

The outflows are smaller than they look relative to the market. The $71.5 million weekly outflow weighs about 5% of fund assets but only around 1% of the exchange turnover over the same five days. Individual large wallets have moved more in single transfers: two wallets shifted $111 million in SOL over a weekend, more than a full week of fund outflows.

Two flat days don’t make a reversal. But after four straight weeks of outflows, a pause during a crypto rebound suggests the forced selling from ETF holders has slowed. A return to inflows would remove the biggest single headwind on the price.

BSOL’s Staking Edge: 96% Staked and a 5.8% Reward Rate

Solana’s ETFs have a structural feature Bitcoin funds lack: staking yield. Bitwise’s BSOL, the largest Solana fund, delegates most of its SOL to validators and adds the resulting rewards to the fund. As of late August, Bitwise reported that 96% of BSOL’s assets were staked, against a stated target of 100%, with a net reward rate of 5.80%.

That yield matters in a high-rate environment. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.92% and the Fed’s policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, a 5.8% staking yield gives Solana ETF holders income that partially offsets price declines. Bitcoin ETFs offer no such yield, and Ethereum ETFs have only recently begun adding staking.

BSOL has dominated Solana ETF demand. It became the first Solana ETF to cross $1 billion in net assets in late August, holding 9.33 million SOL worth roughly $1.018 billion. Investors kept adding to BSOL during SOL’s decline through the first half of 2026, even as falling prices reduced the fund’s value.

The staking structure also creates a natural accumulation mechanism. Staking rewards add SOL to the fund’s holdings every epoch, which means BSOL’s SOL count grows even without new inflows. At a 5.8% annual reward rate on roughly 10 million SOL, the fund adds around 580,000 SOL a year from staking alone.

The outflows show the yield wasn’t enough to hold investors through October’s drawdown. A 24% monthly price decline overwhelms a 5.8% annual yield. BSOL’s $45.82 million weekly outflow and $23.68 million single-day outflow on October 29 came from holders exiting despite the staking income.

The yield becomes more valuable as prices stabilize. If SOL holds the $90 trendline and volatility declines, the 5.8% staking return becomes a reason to hold rather than an afterthought. That’s the dynamic that could turn flat ETF flows into inflows during November.

For the forecast, the staking yield provides a fundamental floor for ETF demand that Bitcoin funds lack. Investors who sold during the October panic left a 5.8% yield on the table. If prices stabilize, some will return to collect it.

Alpenglow Goes Live: Finality Drops From 12.8 Seconds to 150 Milliseconds

Solana activated the largest protocol change in its history in late October. The Alpenglow consensus upgrade went live on mainnet on October 21, replacing the network’s previous system for validating transactions. The upgrade targets transaction finality of about 150 milliseconds under normal conditions, compared with roughly 12.8 seconds under the former consensus system.

That’s an 85-fold improvement in the time it takes for a transaction to become irreversible. Alpenglow works by having validators exchange their votes directly and bundle them into certificates, rather than recording each vote as a blockchain transaction. Some analysts have described it as an architectural transformation rather than a routine version update.

The upgrade also improves security. Alpenglow provides what developers call “20+20” resilience, meaning the network remains safe even if 20% of validators act maliciously and another 20% are offline. That’s a meaningful improvement in fault tolerance for a network that suffered multiple outages in its early years.

The change has a measurement quirk. Because validator votes are no longer recorded as blockchain transactions, network dashboards can show lower transaction counts without any decline in actual usage. Investors comparing transaction data before and after October 21 need to account for that shift.

The market reaction was muted. SOL fell after Alpenglow launched as the Binance hack and ETF outflows dominated price action. The upgrade addresses performance, while ETF flows provide a more direct indication of near-term demand.

The developer pipeline continues. The Solana Foundation’s October 29 changelog listed new releases for Agave and Firedancer validator clients, Solana Kit and Token-2022, along with offchain message signing and further work on Alpenglow-compatible transaction formats.

Faster finality matters for specific use cases. Payments, trading and tokenized securities settlement all benefit from near-instant finality. A 150-millisecond settlement time puts Solana closer to traditional payment networks and gives it an advantage in real-world asset tokenization, where institutions require certainty that trades are final.

For the forecast, Alpenglow is a long-term positive that hasn’t yet translated into price. The upgrade improves Solana’s competitive position against Ethereum and other smart-contract platforms, but the market needs evidence that faster finality drives more usage and revenue before rewarding it.

Firedancer and 1,000 Days Without a Halt

Solana reached a reliability milestone this week. The network marked 1,000 consecutive days of 100% cluster-level uptime around November 2, 2026, having produced blocks nonstop since February 2024. The cluster is the full set of validators that run the network together, so the measure covers the chain as a whole.

That record matters given Solana’s history. The network suffered multiple outages in 2021 and 2022 that damaged its reputation with institutional investors. The last halt, on February 6, 2024, stemmed from a bug in validator software that got stuck in an infinite recompile loop. The outage lasted approximately five hours.

Firedancer is the main reason for the improvement. Developed by Jump Crypto, Firedancer is a second independent validator client that adds client diversity to the network. If a bug affects one client, validators running the other client keep the network running. Firedancer breaks each validator’s tasks into separate tiles, which keeps issues contained.

The performance numbers are striking. Firedancer handled up to 1 million transactions per second in testing. Solana currently runs a hybrid called Frankendancer, which combines elements of Firedancer and the original Agave client. The full Firedancer rollout continues in phases.

Network activity has surged during the uptime streak. Since the February 2024 halt, DEX volume and transactions have doubled, and the number of active traders on Solana has grown sixfold. That growth in users matters more than throughput figures because it shows real adoption.

The DEX dominance is persistent. Solana processed over $65 billion in decentralized exchange volume in October, its 15th consecutive month leading all chains. That’s despite SOL’s 24% price decline during the month, which shows trading activity on the network doesn’t depend on the token’s direction.

The security work extends to future threats. Both Anza and Firedancer have selected Falcon post-quantum signatures, positioning the network for eventual quantum computing risks.

For the forecast, reliability is the foundation for institutional adoption. Asset managers, payment companies and tokenization platforms need assurance that the network won’t go down. A 1,000-day uptime streak combined with client diversity removes one of the biggest objections to building on Solana.

Real-World Assets: $5.12 Billion and Growing 17.65% a Month

Tokenized real-world assets are becoming Solana’s strongest growth story. The value of distributed RWAs on Solana reached $5.12 billion on November 3, up 17.65% over 30 days. That figure set a record on October 29, the same day as the Binance hack, before easing slightly.

The holder base is broad. Data showed 862,792 wallets holding tokenized assets on Solana and $16.15 billion in transfer volume over 30 days. The network hosts 3,516 tokenized assets, ranging from tokenized Treasury funds to equities and private credit.

The growth matters because it reflects institutional use. Tokenized assets are issued by asset managers, banks and fintech companies that need a reliable, fast and cheap settlement layer. Alpenglow’s 150-millisecond finality and Firedancer’s resilience directly address those requirements.

The divergence between RWA growth and price is stark. Tokenized assets on Solana grew 17.65% in the same 30 days that SOL’s price fell 24%. That gap shows usage of the network is rising even as speculative demand for the token falls.

Tokenized equities have been a focus. Solana has positioned itself as a venue for tokenized stocks, competing with Ethereum and other chains for the business of platforms that offer 24-hour trading in equity tokens.

The question is how RWA growth translates into SOL demand. Tokenized asset issuers need SOL to pay transaction fees, and some stake SOL to participate in network security. But fees on Solana are very low by design, which limits the direct demand RWA activity creates for the token.

That’s the core bear argument about Solana’s economics. Network revenue in the first half of 2026 fell to $141 million, down 87.1% from $1.09 billion in the first half of 2025. Second-quarter network fees declined 44% from the first quarter. The memecoin trading frenzy that generated high fees in early 2025 has faded, and the RWA and payment activity replacing it generates less revenue per dollar of activity.

For the forecast, RWA growth is a long-term support for SOL but not a near-term catalyst. The market rewards revenue, and Solana’s revenue has fallen sharply even as usage grows. Investors need evidence that institutional activity can rebuild fee income before rerating the token.

The Revenue Problem: $141 Million in H1 2026, Down 87%

Solana’s revenue decline is the most important fundamental challenge for the token. Network revenue reached $141 million in the first half of 2026, down 87.1% from $1.09 billion in the first half of 2025, according to 21Shares data. Second-quarter network fees fell 44% from the first quarter. Analysts increasingly point to revenue and fees as more important price indicators than technical upgrades.

The collapse reflects the end of the memecoin boom. In late 2024 and early 2025, speculative trading in memecoins on Solana generated enormous fee revenue as traders paid priority fees to get their transactions processed first. That activity has largely dried up, taking the fee income with it.

The revenue decline challenges the investment case for SOL. Unlike Bitcoin, which is valued primarily as a store of value, smart-contract tokens like SOL are often valued on the economic activity they capture. When fees fall 87%, the fundamental basis for the token’s valuation weakens.

The counterargument is that volume hasn’t fallen. Solana still leads all chains in DEX volume with over $65 billion in October, and active traders have grown sixfold since early 2024. The network is processing more activity at lower cost per transaction, which is the design goal. Low fees attract users; high fees drive them away.

Alpenglow could change the revenue picture over time. Faster finality makes Solana more attractive for high-frequency trading, payments and institutional settlement, all of which generate steady fee income rather than speculative spikes. If those use cases scale, fee revenue could recover without depending on memecoin cycles.

The staking economics are a separate consideration. Solana’s inflation schedule distributes new SOL to stakers, providing the 5.8% yield BSOL earns. That inflation dilutes holders who don’t stake, and without strong fee revenue to offset it, the net economics for the token are weaker.

For the forecast, the revenue problem caps the upside. A relief rally toward $103 to $112 is plausible on oversold technicals and paused ETF outflows. A sustained return to $124 or higher requires evidence that network revenue is recovering, which the third-quarter data due over the coming weeks will help clarify.

The Binance Hack and Leveraged Unwinding

The October 29 Binance theft hit Solana alongside the rest of the crypto market. Attackers drained Binance hot wallets across ten blockchains in the largest theft in crypto history, with an estimated $6.3 billion stolen. Solana was among the affected networks, though the bulk of the stolen value came from Ethereum and Bitcoin, which made up 83% of the theft.

The hack drove immediate selling. SOL fell below $100 after the October 29 Binance hack, and spot Solana ETFs recorded $27.69 million in outflows that day, their largest single-day withdrawal of the week. Bitcoin dropped to a six-week low of $76,368 and ether to a two-month low of $2,178 on hack day.

Leveraged positions amplified the decline. As prices fell, traders holding leveraged long positions on SOL were liquidated, forcing additional selling. The unwinding of leveraged longs was one of the four main drivers behind Solana’s October weakness, alongside ETF outflows, hack-related selling and weak technicals.

That liquidation cascade may be largely complete. When leveraged longs are flushed out during a selloff, the market typically finds a floor once forced sellers are exhausted. The RSI reading of 26.13 on November 3 and the bounce from $89.73 on Wednesday are consistent with that pattern.

Binance’s response helped stabilize markets. The exchange said user funds are safe and set aside $6.34 billion to cover losses. Withdrawals reopened on November 1, and the exchange published proof of reserves on November 2.

Large wallets have been active. Two wallets shifted $111 million in SOL over a weekend, more than a full week of ETF outflows. Such transfers can signal either accumulation or preparation to sell, and the direction won’t be clear until the tokens either land on exchanges or move to long-term storage.

The hack’s lasting impact may be on regulation. The Democratic Congress elected Tuesday brings stronger oversight of crypto, with Senator Elizabeth Warren set for an elevated role on the Banking Committee. The CLARITY Act, which would have defined regulatory jurisdiction for tokens like SOL, failed in September and likely won’t pass before 2027.

For the forecast, the hack-driven selling looks exhausted. The combination of oversold RSI, flushed leverage and paused ETF outflows sets up a relief rally, with the hack’s aftermath fading as a factor.

Regulation After the Midterms: CLARITY Stalls and SOL’s Status Stays Unsettled

The Democratic sweep of Congress complicates the regulatory path for Solana. Democrats won the Senate with victories in historically red states including Texas, South Carolina and Kansas, and flipped House seats from Florida to New Jersey to Kentucky. The CLARITY Act, the market-structure bill that would sort digital assets between securities and commodities regulators, already failed a Senate procedural vote 50 to 49 in September.

That failure matters more for SOL than for Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s status as a commodity is settled. Solana’s status is less clear: securities regulators previously named SOL in lawsuits alleging it was sold as an unregistered security, which caused some exchanges including Robinhood to delist it before relisting in November 2024. CLARITY would have provided a framework for determining when tokens like SOL qualify as commodities.

The existence of spot Solana ETFs reduces the practical risk. Seven Solana ETFs trade on U.S. exchanges, including products from Bitwise, Grayscale, Fidelity, VanEck and Morgan Stanley. Their approval implies regulators accept SOL as an asset suitable for exchange-traded products. Reversing that would be a major policy shift.

The new Congress brings oversight rather than legislation. Democratic control puts the Senate Banking Committee under the party’s direction, with Warren, the chamber’s most persistent crypto critic, positioned to hold hearings and investigate the industry. Any broad crackdown would weigh on crypto sentiment generally.

The Senate also confirms nominees to the securities and commodities regulators. From January, any vacancy requires Democratic votes, limiting how far pro-crypto rulemaking can go. New ETF approvals, staking products and token classifications face more congressional scrutiny.

The stablecoin framework stays in place. The GENIUS Act, already signed into law, regulates dollar-pegged stablecoins and isn’t affected by the election. Stablecoins are a major part of Solana’s activity, used for payments, trading and DeFi, so that legal certainty supports network usage.

For SOL specifically, regulatory uncertainty is a background risk rather than an immediate catalyst. The token’s ETFs, exchange listings and institutional adoption are in place. Comprehensive rules will wait until 2027 at the earliest, and the market has largely priced that delay.

The Technical Map: $89.73 Floor, $98.08 Pivot, $103.81 Target

Solana’s chart has clear levels after Wednesday’s bounce. The intraday low of $89.73 is the first and most important support, marking the trendline that has held since June. Below it, the lower Bollinger Band near $91.39 has already been tested. A break below $89.73 would open a bearish scenario targeting $85.35.

The resistance stack above the current price is tightly clustered. $97.76 is the short-term resistance level where price has remained under pressure. Above it, the 200-day EMA at $98.08 is the critical pivot: reclaiming it would mark the first close above a major moving average since the October breakdown. The 100-day EMA at $99.96 sits just below the psychological $100 level.

Above $100, the 50-day EMA at $103.81 and the bullish scenario trigger at $103.60 form the next resistance zone. A move above $103.60 targets $112.60. Above that, the late-September high near $124 marks the top of the recent range.

The momentum setup favors a bounce. RSI at 26 to 29 indicates deeply oversold conditions. The ADX reading of 55 shows a strong downward trend, but extreme ADX readings during oversold conditions often precede trend exhaustion. A bullish MACD crossover and an RSI recovery above 40 would confirm the reversal.

The risk-reward favors buyers from current levels. From $96.52, the distance to $103.81 is $7.29, a 7.6% gain, and to $112.60 is $16.08, a 16.7% gain. The distance to $89.73 is $6.79, a 7.0% decline, and to $85.35 is $11.17, an 11.6% decline. A stop below $89.73 targeting $103.81 offers roughly a one-to-one setup, improving to more than two-to-one toward $112.60.

The intraday volatility requires wide stops. SOL moved 7.6% from its low to its high on Wednesday. Stops within $3 of the current price will get hit on noise.

The level that matters most is $98.08 on a closing basis. A daily close above the 200-day EMA would signal that the October downtrend has ended. A failure at $98.08 followed by a return below $92 would suggest the bounce is a dead-cat rally, with $89.73 the next test.

The Catalyst Calendar: ETF Flows, Jobs Friday and the Fed

Solana faces a run of catalysts over the next five weeks. Daily ETF flow data is the most direct near-term signal. After four straight weeks of outflows and two days of zero flows, a return to inflows would confirm that institutional selling has ended. Any day with BSOL inflows above $10 million would mark a meaningful shift.

Friday’s U.S. October jobs report sets the macro tone. Consensus calls for nonfarm payrolls of 65,000 and unemployment at 4.2%. A strong report would lift the dollar and push Fed hike odds above 78%, pressuring crypto. A weak report would support risk assets and extend the bounce.

U.S. October CPI lands November 10. A soft inflation print would challenge the Fed’s December hike and support crypto broadly. A hot print would revive pressure.

Bitcoin’s direction remains the dominant driver. Solana typically amplifies Bitcoin’s moves, rising more on rallies and falling more on selloffs. Bitcoin holding above $79,000 would support SOL’s move toward $100; a Bitcoin break below $75,700 would push SOL back toward $89.73.

Network data will test the revenue story. Third-quarter network fee and revenue figures will show whether the 44% sequential decline in second-quarter fees continued or reversed. Any sign of fee recovery would strengthen the fundamental case.

Firedancer’s rollout continues. Further deployment of the full Firedancer client, beyond the current Frankendancer hybrid, would advance the network’s performance and resilience. Major milestones could serve as sentiment catalysts.

RWA data will keep coming. Tokenized asset value on Solana grew 17.65% in October. A move above the October 29 record would reinforce the institutional adoption narrative.

The Fed’s December 8 to 9 meeting caps the period. A hike with guidance pointing to a pause would likely support crypto into year-end. A hike with guidance for more tightening would pressure every risk asset, including SOL.

Solana Price Forecast: Cautiously Bullish Above $89.73, $98.08 Pivot, $103.81 Target

Solana rebounded 3.09% to $96.52 on Wednesday after testing its June trendline at $89.73, recovering $6.79 as Bitcoin reclaimed $79,000. The token remains 24% lower over 30 days and 67% below its all-time high of $293.31.

The bear case drove October. Spot Solana ETFs recorded a record $71.47 million in weekly outflows and $143.7 million for the month, the largest since launch. The Binance hack triggered selling and leveraged liquidations. SOL broke below its 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs. Network revenue fell 87.1% in the first half of 2026 to $141 million as memecoin activity faded.

The bull case is building underneath. ETF outflows paused with zero flows across all seven funds on November 2 and 3. RSI hit 26.13, deeply oversold. Alpenglow went live on October 21, cutting finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. The network reached 1,000 days without a halt, active traders grew sixfold since February 2024, and Solana led all chains in DEX volume for a 15th straight month with $65 billion in October. Tokenized real-world assets reached $5.12 billion, up 17.65% in 30 days. BSOL offers a 5.8% staking yield that Bitcoin funds can’t match.

The forecast sets clear levels. The near-term bias is cautiously bullish above $89.73 on a closing basis. The pivot is the 200-day EMA at $98.08. A daily close above $98.08 opens the 100-day EMA at $99.96 and the 50-day EMA at $103.81, a 7.6% gain from $96.52. Above $103.60, the bullish scenario targets $112.60. Support sits at $91.39 and $89.73. A close below $89.73 would break the June trendline and target $85.35.

The verdict: cautiously bullish with a $103.81 target. Solana is oversold on a trendline that has held for five months, ETF selling has paused, and the network’s fundamentals on uptime, finality and real-world assets are the strongest they’ve been, while the revenue decline caps how far a rally can run. Hold $89.73 through Friday’s payrolls, and a close above $98.08 opens the path to $103.81 before the Fed’s December meeting, with a return to ETF inflows the trigger that could carry SOL to $112.60.

 

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