Spot Funds Shed $1.16B in 3 Sessions as IBIT ETF Outflows Drop 77% — BTC Close Above $82K Turns Flows Positive

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs extended their losing streak to three sessions on election day, but the pace of redemptions fell sharply. The 12 funds recorded $115.56 million in net outflows on Tuesday, November 3, according to SoSoValue data. That followed $398.6 million in outflows on Monday, November 2, and $643.2 million on Friday, October 30. The three-session total reached $1.157 billion.

The deceleration is the story. Tuesday’s outflow was 71% smaller than Monday’s, and Monday’s was 38% smaller than Friday’s. Each session drained less than the one before, a pattern that typically marks the late stage of a redemption wave rather than its acceleration.

The first two trading days of November drained $514.2 million, matching the entire month of October, when the funds recorded $515 million in net outflows. That brought the funds’ 2026 year-to-date flows close to flat, with estimates ranging from roughly $38 million in net outflows before November to $34.7 million in net inflows depending on the data provider.

The cumulative picture remains large. Cumulative historical net inflows across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $56.466 billion after Tuesday’s session, down from $56.582 billion a day earlier. Total net assets reached $99.157 billion, equal to 6.33% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization, up from $98.125 billion on Monday as Bitcoin’s price recovered.

Bitcoin’s price action diverged from the flows on Wednesday. After falling to $75,700 overnight as election results came in, Bitcoin recovered above $79,000 by the U.S. session, with one feed marking it at $80,424, up 3.65%. Shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) rose 3.29% on Wednesday. The price recovery came despite three days of institutional selling, which means other buyers absorbed the ETF supply.

The thesis for the next two weeks runs from that divergence. ETF redemptions are slowing sharply, the Democratic sweep removed election uncertainty, and Bitcoin held above its election-night low while the funds were still selling. If Bitcoin holds above $78,000 while ETFs keep redeeming, other buyers are stepping in, and a return to net inflows would add fuel. The forecast calls for flows to turn positive within the next week, with Bitcoin targeting the $82,000 cost-basis ceiling for ETF holders.

Tuesday, November 3: $115.56 Million Out, Three Funds Take In Capital

Tuesday’s session showed a split market. Three of the 12 ETFs attracted inflows while two recorded significant outflows. Bitwise’s BITB took in $21.92 million, the largest single-day inflow, Fidelity’s FBTC added $6.76 million and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT received $3.34 million. Combined, the three inflow funds attracted $32.02 million.

The outflows concentrated in two products. BlackRock’s IBIT recorded $94.98 million in outflows, while Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) lost $52.60 million. Withdrawals from IBIT alone exceeded combined inflows into the three funds that attracted capital. The remaining funds recorded little or no activity.

Trading volume stayed heavy. Total volume across the funds reached $1.46 billion on Tuesday. IBIT led with $1.08 billion, followed by FBTC at $179.08 million and Grayscale’s GBTC at $91.09 million. Heavy volume with modest net flows shows investors were actively trading positions rather than simply exiting, with buyers and sellers largely offsetting each other.

The fund-level assets show the concentration of the market. IBIT held the most net assets at $62.55 billion, followed by FBTC at $13.51 billion and GBTC at $9.69 billion. IBIT alone accounts for 63% of the category’s $99.16 billion in assets.

The cumulative inflow figures show each fund’s history. IBIT’s cumulative historical net inflows stood at $65.81 billion after Tuesday, a figure that exceeds the category’s total cumulative net inflows of $56.47 billion because Grayscale’s GBTC has recorded large cumulative outflows since converting to an ETF in January 2024. FBTC’s cumulative net inflows reached $10.186 billion.

The Tuesday flows coincided with election day. Investors reduced crypto exposure ahead of the midterm results, with ether ETFs also losing $85.35 million on the same day. Bitcoin closed Tuesday around $77,300 to $77,700 after fluctuating, with intraday dips below $76,000.

The inflows into BITB, FBTC and MSBT matter for the forecast. Three funds attracting capital on the day before the election results shows that some investors were buying the dip. If that buying spreads to IBIT, the category flips to inflows quickly.

Monday, November 2: IBIT’s $405 Million Exit, Its Largest Since June

Monday’s session delivered the heaviest single-fund outflow of the streak. BlackRock’s IBIT shed $405.3 million on November 2, its largest daily outflow since June 26, when investors pulled $444.5 million. The fund’s outflow exceeded the category’s total net outflow of $398.6 million, because other funds recorded small combined inflows of roughly $6 million.

Fidelity’s FBTC was the only notable bright spot. FBTC recorded the highest single-day net inflow at $6.68 million on Monday, bringing its cumulative net inflows to $10.179 billion. FBTC added another $6.76 million on Tuesday, giving it two straight days of inflows while IBIT bled.

The Monday outflow came as Bitcoin hit its lowest level since August. Bitcoin briefly fell below $76,400 on Monday, extending the selloff that began with the October 29 Binance hack. The withdrawals came amid broader crypto market volatility following the $6.3 billion theft, the largest in crypto history.

IBIT’s outflow carries particular weight because of the fund’s investor base. IBIT is the largest and most liquid Bitcoin ETF, popular with financial advisors, hedge funds and institutional investors who can move large amounts quickly. A $405 million single-day exit reflects decisions by large holders rather than retail selling.

The timing suggests pre-election de-risking. Some traditional investors reduced crypto exposure ahead of the U.S. midterms, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recording outflows. Ether ETFs lost $139.7 million on Monday, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for $138.3 million.

Daily ETF flows measure changes in fund shares; they don’t represent Bitcoin purchases or sales for BlackRock’s own corporate holdings. When IBIT records a $405 million outflow, authorized participants redeem shares and the fund sells the corresponding Bitcoin.

The size of IBIT’s Monday outflow compared with Tuesday’s $95 million shows how quickly the selling pressure faded. A 77% drop in IBIT redemptions in a single day points to a one-off repositioning rather than a sustained exodus.

Friday, October 30: The $643 Million Peak of the Redemption Wave

The redemption wave began in earnest on the last trading day of October. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.2 million in outflows on October 30, the largest single-day total of the three-session streak. That outflow came the day after the Binance hack, as investors reacted to the theft by cutting crypto exposure.

The October 30 outflow shaped the weekly total. Bitcoin ETFs lost $202.59 million for the full week ending October 30, which means the funds recorded net inflows earlier in the week before Friday’s selling wiped out those gains and more. Ether ETFs lost $431.53 million that week, and Solana ETFs a record $71.47 million. Only XRP ETFs recorded positive flows, taking in $4.32 million.

October as a whole marked a reversal. The funds recorded $515 million in net outflows for the month, erasing gains from earlier in the year and bringing 2026 year-to-date flows close to zero. The month’s weakness reflected a combination of factors: the Binance hack, the Fed’s September rate hike to 3.75% to 4.00%, rising Treasury yields and uncertainty ahead of the midterms.

The hack’s impact on Bitcoin was direct. Attackers attributed by investigators to North Korea’s TraderTraitor unit drained Binance hot wallets across ten blockchains, with Ethereum and Bitcoin accounting for 83% of the stolen value. Roughly $3 billion was frozen on-chain, mostly stablecoins that issuers could lock, but none of the stolen Bitcoin or Ether was frozen. That left a large pool of stolen Bitcoin the attackers could sell.

Bitcoin’s price fell to a six-week low of $76,368 on hack day. The combination of the theft, unfrozen stolen Bitcoin and ETF outflows created a cycle of selling that carried into November.

The pattern from October 30 to November 3 shows a classic shock-and-recovery flow profile. The largest outflow came immediately after the shock, followed by progressively smaller outflows as the initial panic faded. That’s consistent with investors cutting exposure quickly after a negative event, then stabilizing once the immediate threat passes.

The 71% Slowdown: What Decelerating Outflows Signal

The sequence of outflows tells a clear story. $643.2 million on October 30, $398.6 million on November 2, $115.6 million on November 3. Each session drained less than the one before, with Tuesday’s outflow 82% smaller than Friday’s peak.

That deceleration matters more than the absolute numbers. Redemption waves in Bitcoin ETFs typically follow a pattern: a large initial outflow after a shock, followed by smaller outflows as remaining holders decide to stay. When outflows shrink to a fraction of their peak, the wave is usually near its end.

IBIT’s numbers show the same pattern. The fund’s outflow fell from $405.3 million on Monday to $94.98 million on Tuesday, a 77% drop. The slower pace suggests redemption pressure is easing, though it doesn’t yet show institutions returning to accumulate Bitcoin.

The inflows into smaller funds add to the signal. BITB, FBTC and MSBT all attracted capital on Tuesday, and FBTC recorded inflows on both Monday and Tuesday. When some funds take in money while the largest fund’s outflows shrink, the category is close to a turning point.

Historical precedent supports a reversal. After IBIT’s June 26 outflow of $444.5 million, its largest before this week, the fund returned to inflows within days as Bitcoin stabilized. A similar pattern this time would put net inflows back on the tape by the end of the week.

The price action reinforces the read. Bitcoin rose 3.65% to $80,424 at one point on Wednesday while ETFs were still redeeming. If Bitcoin holds above $78,000 while ETFs keep redeeming, it would suggest other buyers are absorbing the supply. That’s typically a precondition for ETF flows to reverse, as advisors and institutions follow price momentum.

The risk is that the slowdown stalls. If Wednesday’s data shows outflows widening again, the deceleration narrative breaks. Wednesday’s flow data, published after the U.S. close, is the first test.

For the forecast, the deceleration points to a return to inflows within the next three to five sessions. The election result removed a major uncertainty, and the price recovery gives allocators a reason to add rather than cut.

IBIT: $62.55 Billion in Assets, $65.81 Billion in Cumulative Inflows

BlackRock’s IBIT dominates the Bitcoin ETF market. The fund held $62.55 billion in net assets after Tuesday’s session, 63% of the category total. Its cumulative historical net inflows stood at $65.81 billion, more than the entire category’s cumulative net inflows of $56.47 billion.

IBIT’s year has been strong despite recent outflows. The fund recorded year-to-date net inflows of $3.81 billion through early November, even after its $405.3 million Monday outflow. That compares with FBTC’s year-to-date net outflows of $1.93 billion, showing that IBIT has gained market share during 2026 while competitors lost assets.

The fund’s market structure gives it outsized influence. IBIT traded $1.08 billion on Tuesday, 74% of the category’s total volume. Its average daily volume runs near 46.9 million shares. That liquidity makes IBIT the preferred vehicle for large institutional trades, which is why its flows swing more than smaller funds.

IBIT’s price follows Bitcoin. Shares rose 3.29% on Wednesday as Bitcoin recovered above $79,000. The fund’s year-to-date total return stands at negative 12.69%, reflecting Bitcoin’s decline from its 2026 highs. The fund charges a 0.25% expense ratio.

The fund’s asset level is sensitive to Bitcoin’s price. With roughly $62.55 billion in assets at Bitcoin near $77,500, each $1,000 move in Bitcoin changes IBIT’s asset value by roughly $800 million, independent of flows.

IBIT’s cumulative inflows exceed the category’s because of GBTC’s history. When Grayscale’s GBTC converted from a closed-end trust to an ETF in January 2024, investors redeemed billions of dollars, much of which moved into lower-fee products like IBIT. GBTC still holds $9.69 billion in assets but carries large cumulative outflows.

For the forecast, IBIT is the fund to watch. Its flows determine the category’s direction, and its return to inflows would be the clearest signal that institutional demand is recovering. A single day of IBIT inflows above $200 million would confirm that the redemption wave has ended.

FBTC, BITB and MSBT: The Funds Buying the Dip

Smaller funds told a different story from IBIT over the past two sessions. Fidelity’s FBTC recorded inflows on both Monday and Tuesday, adding $6.68 million and $6.76 million. That brought its cumulative net inflows to $10.186 billion and its net assets to $13.51 billion, the second-largest Bitcoin ETF.

FBTC’s resilience is notable given its year. The fund recorded year-to-date net outflows of $1.93 billion in 2026, which means it had been losing assets to IBIT and other competitors. Two consecutive days of inflows during a broad redemption wave suggests FBTC’s investor base, heavy with Fidelity brokerage clients, saw the selloff as a buying opportunity.

Bitwise’s BITB led Tuesday’s inflows. The fund took in $21.92 million, the largest single-day inflow among all 12 funds. Bitwise’s investor base tends to include crypto-native allocators and advisors who specialize in digital assets, and their buying during the selloff signals conviction among informed investors.

Morgan Stanley’s MSBT also attracted capital. The fund received $3.34 million on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley’s entry into spot Bitcoin ETFs gives its wealth management clients a house product, and inflows during a selloff suggest its advisors are adding positions for clients.

Grayscale’s products moved the other way. The Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) lost $52.60 million on Tuesday, the second-largest outflow after IBIT. GBTC traded $91.09 million but held $9.69 billion in assets. Grayscale’s products have consistently lost share to lower-cost competitors since the January 2024 conversions.

The split shows rotation within the category. Investors aren’t uniformly exiting Bitcoin ETFs; some are leaving IBIT and Grayscale while others add to FBTC, BITB and MSBT. That rotation reduces the net outflow and suggests the category’s total demand is more stable than the headline numbers imply.

For the forecast, the dip-buying in smaller funds is a leading indicator. When advisors and crypto-native allocators add during a selloff, larger institutional flows often follow once prices stabilize.

The Ether, Solana and XRP Comparison: Bitcoin Isn’t Alone

The ETF outflows extend across crypto. Spot Ether ETFs recorded their seventh straight day of outflows on November 3, losing $85.35 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for $74.44 million and Grayscale’s ETH products $10.91 million. Ether ETFs lost $139.7 million on November 2, with ETHA shedding $138.3 million. Total Ether ETF assets stood at $13.32 billion, 4.76% of Ether’s market cap.

The Ether ETF picture is worse than Bitcoin’s. ETHA shed 580,145 ETH over the past month, and its assets fell from $9.9 billion to $6.9 billion. Ether ETFs lost $431.53 million in the week ending October 30, more than double Bitcoin ETFs’ $202.59 million. Seven straight days of outflows show persistent rather than event-driven selling.

Solana ETFs hit a record. The seven spot Solana ETFs lost $71.47 million in the week ending October 30, their largest weekly withdrawal since launch. Solana ETFs posted zero flows on November 2 and 3, suggesting the selling there has paused.

XRP stood alone. Spot XRP ETFs took in $4.32 million in the week ending October 30, the only crypto ETF category with positive flows. XRP ETFs saw minimal outflows of $530,000 on November 2 and zero net flows on November 3.

The cross-asset comparison helps size the Bitcoin outflows. Across the four major crypto ETF categories, the week ending October 30 saw combined outflows of $701.27 million. Bitcoin’s share, $202.59 million, was 29% of that total, despite Bitcoin ETFs holding far more assets than the others combined. Relative to assets, Bitcoin ETF outflows were the smallest of the losing categories.

The ratio matters. Bitcoin ETFs hold $99.16 billion in assets, so a $1.157 billion three-session outflow equals 1.2% of assets. Ether ETFs holding $13.32 billion lost $225 million over two sessions, 1.7% of assets. Solana ETFs lost 5% of assets in a single week.

For the forecast, Bitcoin’s relative stability is a positive. Institutional investors cut crypto exposure across the board after the Binance hack, but they cut Bitcoin proportionally less than altcoins. When flows turn, Bitcoin is likely to see inflows first, consistent with its role as the institutional entry point to crypto.

The Election Effect: Democratic Sweep Removes Uncertainty

The midterm results changed the backdrop for Bitcoin ETF flows. Democrats swept both chambers of Congress on Tuesday, winning Senate seats in historically red states including Texas, South Carolina and Kansas. The outcome surprised investors who had expected a split Congress, and Bitcoin initially fell to $75,700 overnight.

The recovery came quickly. Bitcoin recovered above $79,000 by the U.S. session as clarity after the midterms and strong chip earnings lifted risk appetite. Markets were relieved that Trump accepted the results, removing a tail risk of a contested election.

The regulatory implications are mixed but manageable for Bitcoin. The CLARITY Act, the crypto market-structure bill, failed a Senate procedural vote 50 to 49 in September and likely won’t pass before 2027. Democratic control puts Senator Elizabeth Warren in an elevated position on the Banking Committee, which could bring hearings and investigations into crypto. But Bitcoin’s status as a commodity is not in dispute, and spot Bitcoin ETFs are firmly established.

The macro impact is supportive. The Democratic sweep pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.92% and the Dollar Index to a one-month low of 101.30. Lower yields and a weaker dollar historically support Bitcoin by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Gold rose 3% to $4,046 on the same move.

The fiscal outlook shifted. A Democratic Congress will oppose further tax cuts and spending increases, which means less Treasury issuance. That reduces upward pressure on yields, which helps risk assets including Bitcoin.

Pre-election de-risking may now reverse. Some traditional investors reduced crypto exposure ahead of the midterms, contributing to the outflows on November 2 and 3. With the uncertainty resolved, those investors have reason to rebuild positions, which would turn flows positive.

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, faces its own catalyst. The company holds 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,448 and bought 811 BTC at an average of $80,846 between October 26 and November 1. MSCI’s November 11 decision on whether to exclude Strategy from its indexes could affect sentiment toward Bitcoin-proxy stocks.

For the forecast, the election removes one of the main reasons investors cut ETF exposure. The flows on Wednesday and Thursday will show whether that de-risking reverses.

Cost Basis Math: ETF Holders Underwater Below $82,000

The ETF holder base has a cost basis problem that shapes flows. Bitcoin ETF investors who bought during the 2026 rally hold an average cost basis near $82,000, creating a ceiling where many holders would break even. At Bitcoin’s Wednesday price of $79,000 to $80,424, many ETF holders remain underwater.

That cost basis creates overhead supply. When prices approach an investor’s entry price, some sell to get out at breakeven, which caps rallies. Existing holders who bought above current prices add to selling pressure on any recovery toward their cost basis.

The cost basis also explains the outflows. Investors who bought Bitcoin ETFs between $82,000 and $100,000 earlier in the year saw their positions fall 15% to 25% by late October. The Binance hack triggered capitulation among some of those holders, contributing to the October 30 to November 3 outflows.

The other side of the math is supportive. Investors who held through the selloff and didn’t redeem have shown conviction. The $56.47 billion in cumulative net inflows remains in the funds, and the 1.2% of assets that left over three sessions is small relative to the total.

Strategy’s cost basis offers a parallel floor. The company’s average cost of $75,448 sits just below Wednesday’s low of $75,700. Bitcoin’s bounce from just above that level suggests buyers view it as a support zone.

The 200-day simple moving average near $73,169 marks the deeper support level. Bitcoin hasn’t tested it during this selloff, which keeps the longer-term uptrend intact.

The path to inflows runs through $82,000. If Bitcoin climbs back above the average ETF cost basis, underwater holders return to profit, removing their incentive to sell on rallies. New buyers see momentum and add positions. That combination typically produces sustained inflows.

For the forecast, $82,000 is the level that matters for ETF flows. Below it, rallies face selling from holders seeking breakeven. Above it, flows should turn decisively positive as momentum attracts new money.

The Macro Backdrop: Fed Hike Odds at 78% and the Jobs Report Friday

Bitcoin ETF flows respond to the macro environment, and the backdrop remains mixed. The Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, and futures price a 78% chance of another 25 basis-point hike at the December 8 to 9 meeting. September PCE inflation came in at 3.6%. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, which pays no yield.

The jobs data has been firm. Wednesday’s ADP report showed private payrolls up 86,000 in October, beating the 69,000 forecast. September JOLTS openings came in at 7.523 million, above the 7.15 million forecast. Strong labor data supports the Fed’s case for another hike.

Friday’s October jobs report is the next test. Consensus calls for nonfarm payrolls of 65,000 and unemployment at 4.2%. A strong print would push hike odds higher and pressure Bitcoin, potentially extending ETF outflows. A weak print would lower hike odds, support Bitcoin and accelerate the return to inflows.

U.S. October CPI on November 10 follows. A soft inflation reading would challenge the December hike and support risk assets. A hot reading would revive pressure.

The election changed the growth outlook. A Democratic Congress less inclined to fiscal stimulus, combined with potential AI regulation, raises the risk of slower growth. Slower growth reduces the need for rate hikes, which would help Bitcoin. The 10-year yield’s drop to 4.92% on Wednesday reflected that shift.

The dollar is the other macro lever. The Dollar Index fell to 101.30, a one-month low, on Wednesday. A weaker dollar supports Bitcoin, which is priced in dollars and often trades inversely to the currency.

Gold’s move offers a parallel. Gold rose 3% to $4,046 on Wednesday, recovering above $4,000 after hitting a yearly low of $3,870.25 on October 30. Gold ETFs hold a record 4,256 tonnes after record third-quarter inflows of $31 billion. When gold and Bitcoin both rally on a weaker dollar and lower yields, it signals a macro tailwind for hard assets.

For the forecast, the macro backdrop is turning supportive after a difficult October. The election-driven drop in yields and the dollar gives Bitcoin room to rally, and Friday’s jobs report will determine whether that tailwind holds.

The Catalyst Calendar: Wednesday’s Flow Data, Jobs Friday and MSCI November 11

Bitcoin ETF flows face a run of catalysts over the next two weeks. Wednesday’s flow data, published after the U.S. close, is the first test of whether the election result changed investor behavior. A fourth day of outflows below $100 million would extend the deceleration. A return to net inflows would end the streak and signal that the redemption wave is over.

Thursday’s data will confirm the direction. Two consecutive days of inflows would establish a new trend, while a return to outflows would suggest the election bounce was temporary.

Friday’s U.S. jobs report sets the macro tone. A strong number would push Fed hike odds higher and could revive outflows. A weak number would support Bitcoin and accelerate inflows.

MSCI’s decision on Strategy, due November 11, could move Bitcoin-proxy sentiment. Exclusion from MSCI indexes would force passive funds to sell Strategy shares, which could weigh on Bitcoin sentiment broadly. Inclusion would support it.

U.S. CPI on November 10 tests the inflation picture. Bitcoin has responded to inflation data through its effect on Fed expectations, and a soft print would support flows.

The Binance hacker’s Bitcoin remains a risk. None of the stolen Bitcoin has been frozen, and any large movement of those coins toward exchanges would trigger selling. On-chain analysts track the hacker’s wallets continuously.

Weekly flow totals will provide the bigger picture. The week ending November 6 will show whether November’s first week delivers net outflows, extending October’s negative trend, or net inflows, reversing it. With $514.2 million already out in the first two sessions, a positive week would require more than $500 million in inflows over Wednesday through Friday.

The Fed’s December 8 to 9 meeting caps the period. A hike with guidance pointing to a pause would likely support flows into year-end. A hike with guidance for more tightening would pressure them.

Bitcoin ETF Flow Forecast: Outflows Ending, Inflows by Next Week, $82,000 the Trigger

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.157 billion in outflows across three sessions, with $643.2 million on October 30, $398.6 million on November 2 and $115.6 million on November 3. The first two trading days of November drained $514.2 million, matching all of October. BlackRock’s IBIT led with its largest outflow since June at $405.3 million on Monday, followed by $94.98 million on Tuesday.

The pace of selling is slowing sharply. Tuesday’s outflow was 71% smaller than Monday’s and 82% smaller than Friday’s peak. IBIT’s outflow fell 77% in a day. Three funds, BITB, FBTC and MSBT, attracted a combined $32.02 million on Tuesday, and FBTC recorded inflows on both Monday and Tuesday. Total net assets rose to $99.16 billion, 6.33% of Bitcoin’s market cap, as prices recovered.

Bitcoin’s price is leading the flows. Bitcoin rose to $79,000 and as high as $80,424 on Wednesday, with IBIT shares up 3.29%, despite three days of ETF selling. The Democratic sweep removed election uncertainty, pushed the 10-year yield to 4.92% and the dollar to a one-month low.

The risks remain. ETF holders sit underwater below $82,000, creating overhead supply. The Fed’s 78% December hike odds keep pressure on non-yielding assets. Stolen Bitcoin from the Binance hack hasn’t been frozen.

The forecast sets clear markers. Expect the outflow streak to end within the next three sessions, with Wednesday’s or Thursday’s data showing net inflows. A single day of IBIT inflows above $200 million would confirm the reversal. For Bitcoin, support sits at the $75,700 election-night low, just above Strategy’s $75,448 average cost. The trigger for sustained inflows is a Bitcoin close above $82,000, the average ETF holder cost basis.

The verdict: the redemption wave is ending. Outflows have shrunk for three straight sessions, smaller funds are buying the dip, and Bitcoin’s price is rising while the funds still sell. Hold $78,000 through Friday’s payrolls, and ETF flows turn positive before the November 11 MSCI decision, with a Bitcoin close above $82,000 the trigger that converts underwater holders into buyers and puts the $56.47 billion cumulative inflow total back on a rising path.

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