Solana Targets $100 After SOL Defends $81.25 as RSI Hits 23.41 and Longs Lose $28.77M in Liquidations

Solana traded at $84.73 on Wednesday evening, November 11. That is $1.47, or 1.77%, above Tuesday’s close of $83.26. The 24-hour range ran from $81.25 to $85.30. The low marked the weakest level in nearly three months. Buyers stepped in at that floor and lifted the token 4.28% off the bottom during the US session. Market capitalization stands at $50.20 billion on a circulating supply of 591.41 million SOL. Spot volume over 24 hours reached $2.60 billion, or 5.2% of market value. That is an active market, not a thin one.

Tuesday’s session set up the current test. SOL opened at $86.55, reached a high of $86.66, fell to $81.62 and closed at $83.26. The $5.04 intraday range equaled 6.2% of the low, a wide swing for one day. Leveraged traders paid the price. Liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled $31.27 million, and 92% of that, or $28.77 million, came from long positions. Open interest fell 2.22%, mostly through longs closing. That kind of flush usually removes the forced sellers that drive a decline. It often precedes a bounce.

The broader decline has been steep. SOL traded at $124.80 at its October high. At $84.73, it is down $40.07, or 32.1%, from that peak. The token entered a technical bear market on November 7, after a 28.2% fall from the October top. It closed below its 200-day moving average of $88.99 on November 8 and has stayed below that level since. Over the past 30 days, SOL has lost 21.02% from $107.27. Over seven days, it has lost 5.95% from $90.09. Over one year, it is down 45.58% from $155.68. Against the all-time high of $295.90, the token trades 71.4% lower.

The three-month view shows something different. SOL traded at $75.56 three months ago and is up 12.13% from that level. The summer low held, and the token has not yet broken it. The October rally from that base to $124.80 was a 65.2% move. The current decline has given back 81% of that gain, but not all of it. The $75.56 level is the line that separates a deep correction from a full return to the summer lows.

The momentum reading is extreme. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 23.41. Readings below 25 are rare and usually come near the end of a selling wave. The forecast below sets $81.25 as the support to defend, $88.99 as the first resistance, and $100 as the upside target for an oversold rebound.

ETF Outflows Reach $46.1 Million in Four Sessions

The spot Solana ETFs have turned from a source of demand into a source of supply. Over the four trading sessions from November 5 to November 10, the funds recorded net outflows of $46.1 million. The sequence ran $0.8 million on November 5, $24.2 million on November 6, $7.7 million on November 9 and $13.4 million on November 10. No fund posted an inflow on November 6, and no fund in the group has posted a net inflow on any day this month.

Bitwise’s Solana Staking ETF, BSOL, led the redemptions. It lost $14.4 million on November 6, $5.9 million on November 9 and $8.2 million on November 10, for $28.5 million in four sessions. Grayscale’s GSOL lost $5.4 million on November 6 and $2.4 million on November 10. The Morgan Stanley product, MSOL, lost $4.4 million on November 6. The 21Shares fund, TSOL, lost $2.8 million on November 10. Smaller products from VanEck and Franklin recorded mostly zero flows, with a few minor redemptions.

The pattern has persisted for weeks. Solana ETF outflows have now extended to five consecutive weeks. In the week of October 26 to 30, the funds lost $71.47 million. An earlier episode in October produced a nine-day withdrawal streak. The selling is persistent rather than panicked. It looks like steady de-risking by institutions that bought during the summer and autumn rally.

The cumulative picture remains positive. Since launch, the spot Solana ETFs have taken in $1.414 billion in net inflows. Bitwise’s BSOL accounts for $1.095 billion of that total, or 77%. Total assets under management stood at $1.31 billion in the latest data. That is lower than cumulative net inflows, which means the average ETF buyer is holding at a loss. Holdings equal 2.61% of Solana’s market capitalization, a meaningful share but not a dominant one.

The flow data matter more for sentiment than for price mechanics. A $13.4 million daily outflow is small against $2.60 billion of daily spot volume, at 0.52%. The ETFs do not move the price on their own. They signal institutional mood. Five weeks of outflows tell the market that large allocators are reducing exposure to altcoins. A first day of net inflows would be the clearest signal that the mood has shifted, and it would likely coincide with the start of a rebound toward $90.

RSI at 23.41 and the Oversold Setup

The momentum indicators show a market stretched far to the downside. The daily RSI at 23.41 sits deep in oversold territory. Over the past two years, SOL has printed daily RSI readings below 25 only a handful of times. In most cases, the token rebounded 15% to 25% within two to three weeks of the reading. The signal does not guarantee a bottom. It shows that sellers have pushed price further and faster than the underlying flows usually support.

The liquidation data back up the oversold view. Long liquidations of $28.77 million in 24 hours, along with a 2.22% drop in open interest, mean leveraged buyers have been forced out. Once those positions are gone, the market loses a source of mechanical selling. The remaining participants are either spot holders who chose not to sell at $81 or short sellers who now face a squeeze risk if price turns higher.

The token also broke a major ascending trendline before Tuesday’s drop. That trendline had connected the summer low to the higher lows of September and early October. Breaking it confirmed the shift from uptrend to downtrend. Broken trendlines often act as resistance on a retest. For SOL, that retest would come in the $88 to $90 area, near the 200-day moving average. That zone is the first real hurdle for any rebound.

The price structure since late September is a clear series of lower highs and lower lows. SOL traded at $121.96 on September 28, reached $124.80 in October, then fell to $94.48 on November 2, $91.12 on November 6, $83.26 on November 10 and $81.25 on November 11. Each bounce has failed below the previous high. A rebound that breaks the pattern would need to clear $90.09, the level from seven days ago, and then $94.48.

The divergence between price and momentum is the signal to watch next. If SOL makes a new low below $81.25 while RSI holds above 23.41, that would be a bullish divergence. It would show that the selling is losing force even as price drifts lower. That setup has marked several important bottoms in the token’s history. A new low with a lower RSI would suggest the decline has further to run.

Alpenglow, 150ms Finality and the Network Paradox

The network itself has rarely looked stronger. Solana replaced its consensus protocol in October. The Alpenglow upgrade went live on mainnet on October 21, targeting finality of about 150 milliseconds. That is a large improvement over the previous design, and it puts Solana’s settlement speed in the range of traditional payment networks. The upgrade launched without incidents. The network status page shows no outages between November 3 and November 9.

Activity data are strong. On November 11, the network processed 93.48 million transactions in 24 hours across 2.71 million active addresses. In one week during 2026, Solana’s weekly trade count briefly surpassed that of the New York Stock Exchange. Tokenized stock trading on Solana reached $657 million on Monday, a figure that shows demand for real-world assets on the chain. October set records across network speed, tokenized assets, payments and institutional access.

The paradox is that price fell as the network improved. The decline from $124.80 began in the days around the Alpenglow launch. ETF outflows accelerated after the upgrade. The pattern looks like a classic sell-the-news reaction. Traders bought SOL ahead of a well-publicized upgrade and sold once it was delivered. The selling then fed on itself as the broader crypto market weakened.

The disconnect matters for the forecast. Network fundamentals do not set short-term prices, but they set the floor for long-term value. A chain processing more than 93 million transactions a day, with 2.71 million active users and a working sub-second finality layer, has real usage. That usage generates fee revenue and staking demand. When market conditions stabilize, the gap between activity and price tends to close.

Access is also widening. On November 9, Schwab added SOL alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum for its clients. That gives millions of brokerage customers direct access to the token. The effect will not show up in a single day’s flows. Over months, broader retail access through mainstream brokers should support demand. That is a structural positive that the current price does not reflect.

Staking Ratio Slips to 68.26% From 70%

Staking is one of the supports for Solana’s price, because staked SOL is locked and cannot be sold immediately. The staking ratio has dropped to 68.26% from last month’s high of 70%. A decline of 1.74 percentage points in a month signals that some holders have unstaked their tokens, which makes them available for sale. That shift adds to the supply on exchanges and helps explain why the decline accelerated in early November.

The unstaking trend lines up with exchange flow data. Large deposits of SOL to exchanges, including one cluster worth $26 million, appeared in the days before the November 10 drop. Tokens moving from staking accounts to exchanges usually precede selling. The sequence of unstaking, deposit and sale is visible in the on-chain data and fits the price action from November 5 to November 10.

The ratio remains high by any standard. At 68.26%, more than two-thirds of SOL supply is staked. That is among the highest staking participation rates of any major proof-of-stake network. Most staked tokens belong to long-term holders, validators and institutions that earn yield on their positions. The ETFs also stake a large share of their holdings. BSOL stakes part of its holdings, and other funds stake between 5% and 25%.

The staking yield sets a floor on holder behavior. Validators and long-term holders earn a yield that compounds their position over time. At current prices, a holder staking 1,000 SOL earns a stream of new tokens that partly offsets the price decline. That income gives holders less reason to sell at depressed prices. When the staking ratio stops falling, it usually signals that the wave of tactical unstaking has ended.

A stabilization in the staking ratio would be a constructive signal for the forecast. If the ratio holds near 68% through the rest of November, the supply overhang from unstaking will fade. A drop below 67% would suggest that more holders are heading for the exit, and it would weaken the case for a rebound to $100. The ratio is published daily and is one of the best real-time indicators of holder conviction.

China’s Halt of Solana Accelerate and the Regulatory Overhang

A regulatory shock added to the selling in early November. On November 6, the People’s Bank of China halted the Solana Accelerate China 2026 event in Shanghai and announced investigations into local entities. The action was taken under crypto rules introduced in February 2026. The event had been designed to bring developers and businesses in China into the Solana ecosystem. Its cancellation was a direct blow to the network’s growth plans in Asia.

The direct economic impact is limited. China banned crypto trading and mining years ago, and Chinese users already access Solana mainly through offshore exchanges and wallets. The halted event would not have moved transaction volumes in the short term. The symbolic impact was larger. It showed that Chinese authorities remain hostile to crypto activity, even as other jurisdictions open up. It also raised questions about the reach of the investigations and whether they might target developers or firms with links to the Solana ecosystem.

The timing amplified the effect. The news broke on the same day that ETF outflows jumped to $24.2 million. SOL fell from $91.12 on November 6 to the low $80s over the following days. The China action did not cause the decline on its own, but it gave sellers another reason to act and removed a potential catalyst for Asian demand.

The regulatory picture in the US remains supportive. Spot Solana ETFs trade on US exchanges, staking is allowed within those funds, and mainstream brokers like Schwab are adding the token. The contrast between US openness and Chinese hostility is not new. It has shaped crypto markets for years. For Solana, the US side of that contrast matters more, because US institutions hold the ETFs and drive the flows that set sentiment.

The overhang should fade unless the investigations expand. Any news that Chinese authorities are targeting major Solana developers or foundations would revive the concern. Absent that, the November 6 shock is likely to be absorbed within weeks. The forecast treats it as a one-time hit to sentiment, not a lasting change in the token’s outlook.

Prediction Markets Price a 65% Chance of a Sub-$80 Print

Prediction markets show how traders see the rest of November. Contracts on the lowest SOL price in November put a 65% probability on a print below $80. Contracts on the highest price in November put a 22% probability on a print above $100. The market expects further downside before any recovery, and it assigns roughly one-in-five odds to the $100 target being reached this month.

The sub-$80 probability makes sense given the distance. From $84.73, a move to $79.99 requires a decline of 5.6%. SOL has moved more than that in a single session twice this month. With RSI deeply oversold and liquidations already flushed, a sub-$80 print would most likely come as a brief wick rather than a sustained break. Many bottoms in crypto form on a final capitulation wick that tags a round number and reverses within hours.

The $100 probability reflects the size of the move required. From $84.73, a rise to $100 requires a gain of 18.0%. SOL has rallied that much within three weeks several times in the past year, including the October move from $75.56 to $124.80. The 22% probability prices in the current bearish mood more than the token’s historical volatility. If ETF flows turn positive or Bitcoin stabilizes, those odds would rise quickly.

The two contracts together describe a likely path. The market expects SOL to test lower first, possibly breaking $80 briefly, before any meaningful rebound. That path fits the technical picture. A final flush below $81.25 to the $78 to $80 zone, followed by a reversal, would create the bullish divergence on RSI and set up a recovery toward the 200-day moving average.

Daily contracts give a shorter-term read. Contracts on the SOL price at 5 p.m. Eastern on November 11 centered on the $81 level. The token traded above that through the US afternoon. Holding above $81 into the daily close confirms that buyers are defending the level for now. Traders should treat the $81.25 low as the line in the sand for the next two to three sessions.

Macro Backdrop: A 5% Treasury Yield and a December Fed Hike

Crypto trades as a risk asset, and the macro backdrop is hostile. The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.998%. Headline US inflation rose 0.4% in October, and futures price a 91.9% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on December 9. The probability of a second hike at the following meeting has jumped to 60.5%. The dollar index sits at 102.86. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding assets that produce no fixed income, and they reduce the liquidity that speculative markets rely on.

SOL’s yield partly offsets that pressure. Staking pays a return in SOL, which competes against Treasury yields for capital. When the 10-year yielded 3.5%, staking looked very attractive by comparison. At 5%, the gap has narrowed, and some investors have moved from crypto yield to Treasury yield. That rotation is visible in the unstaking data and the ETF outflows.

Equity markets add another link. AI-related stocks have fallen sharply over the past month, and crypto has tracked that decline. Speculative capital moves between high-beta equities and high-beta crypto. When AI infrastructure stocks rallied on Wednesday after strong earnings from the sector, crypto showed some stabilization as well. A broader recovery in risk appetite would help SOL. A further equity sell-off would add pressure.

Geopolitics cuts both ways. Hopes for a US-Iran peace deal have reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar this week. A confirmed deal would lower oil prices, ease inflation pressure and reduce the Fed’s need to hike aggressively. That would be the most bullish macro outcome for crypto. A breakdown in talks would push oil higher and keep rates elevated.

The Fed calendar sets the timing. The December 9 decision falls four weeks from now. The November nonfarm payrolls report arrives on December 4. Between now and then, any data that softens the rate outlook would help SOL rebound. A hotter jobs report would extend the pressure. The macro environment is not the reason SOL fell 32% from its October high, but it is the reason a recovery will need help from flows and fundamentals.

SOL Against Bitcoin and Ethereum

Solana’s decline has been sharper than that of the two largest cryptocurrencies. SOL’s one-year loss of 45.58% and its 30-day loss of 21.02% outpace the declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum over the same periods. That is typical for a higher-beta altcoin. SOL tends to rise faster than Bitcoin in rallies and fall faster in sell-offs. The current underperformance reflects risk-off positioning across the crypto market.

The ETF flow data show the same hierarchy. On November 10, Bitcoin ETFs recorded small net inflows, while Ethereum products saw minor withdrawals. Solana and XRP products recorded the largest outflows among altcoin ETFs, with SOL funds losing $10.56 million and XRP funds losing $7.62 million. Institutions are cutting altcoin exposure while holding their Bitcoin positions. That rotation toward the largest asset is common in the late stages of a crypto correction.

The SOL-to-BTC ratio is a useful gauge for timing. When SOL begins outperforming Bitcoin on a daily basis, it usually signals that risk appetite is returning to altcoins. A rising ratio during a flat or falling Bitcoin market would be particularly bullish, because it would show SOL-specific demand. The ratio has been falling since the October high and needs to stabilize before a sustained SOL rally can develop.

Ethereum offers another comparison. Both networks compete for smart contract activity, tokenized assets and decentralized finance. Solana’s transaction count and active addresses exceed Ethereum’s base layer by a wide margin, though Ethereum holds more value locked in its ecosystem. Solana’s market capitalization of $50.20 billion is well below Ethereum’s. If SOL’s usage advantage translates into fee revenue and ecosystem growth, the valuation gap could narrow over time.

For the near term, SOL is unlikely to rally while Bitcoin falls. A stable or rising Bitcoin is the precondition for any altcoin recovery. If Bitcoin holds its recent range, SOL’s oversold condition gives it room to bounce faster than the leader. If Bitcoin breaks lower, SOL will likely follow it below $80, in line with the 65% probability priced in prediction markets.

Support Levels: $81.25, $78 and $75.56

The support map below the market has three main levels. The first is the 24-hour low at $81.25, which sits just below Tuesday’s low of $81.62. Those two prints form a double bottom zone between $81.25 and $81.62. A daily close above $81.62 keeps the zone intact. A close below $81.25 would break it and put the next level in play.

The second support sits in the $78 to $80 zone. That area marks the top of the late-August base, before the September rally began. It is also the level where the prediction market’s sub-$80 contract would pay out. A wick into this zone, followed by a quick recovery above $81, would form the classic capitulation pattern. A sustained close below $78 would be more damaging, because it would remove the last support before the summer low.

The third support is $75.56, the level SOL traded at three months ago. That price marks the bottom of the summer range and the launch point for the October rally to $124.80. A break below $75.56 would erase the entire autumn advance and turn the three-month return negative. It would also signal a structural shift from a correction within a larger range to a new leg lower. Below that, the next significant level sits near $70, where the token found support earlier in the summer.

The distances between levels are important for risk management. From $84.73, the first support at $81.25 is 4.1% lower. The second at $78 is 7.9% lower. The third at $75.56 is 10.8% lower. A trader buying at current prices with a stop below $78 risks 7.9%. Against an upside target of $100, an 18.0% gain, that gives a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.3 to 1.

The volume profile supports the $78 to $82 zone. A large amount of trading took place in that range during August and September, before the rally. Areas of high past volume tend to act as support, because many holders entered positions there and defend them. That is why the $78 to $82 zone is the most likely place for the current decline to end.

Resistance Levels: $88.99, $94.48 and the $100 Target

The resistance map above the market starts close. The first level is the 200-day moving average at $88.99, which SOL lost on November 8. That average now sits 5.03% above the current price. A return above it would repair the most widely watched long-term trend signal. It would also likely trigger short covering from traders who sold the break below it. The 200-day average also coincides with the broken ascending trendline, which strengthens the resistance.

The second level is $90.09, where SOL traded seven days ago. A close above that would turn the seven-day return positive and break the sequence of lower highs. The third level is $94.48, the November 2 price and the last significant swing high before the latest leg lower. A rally through $94.48 would end the lower-high pattern that has defined the decline since September.

The upside target is $100. That level is a psychological round number, the strike for the 22% prediction market contract, and the 38.2% retracement area of the decline from $124.80 toward the $81.25 low. The full decline covers $43.55. A 38.2% retracement of that move gives $97.89, and a 50% retracement gives $103.03. The $100 target sits between the two. Reaching it would require an 18.0% gain from $84.73.

Above $100, the next resistance is $107.27, the price from 30 days ago. Breaking that level would turn the 30-day return positive and signal that the correction is over. The October high at $124.80 is the final level, 47.3% above the current price. That target belongs to a longer time frame and would require a return of ETF inflows and a broader crypto recovery.

The path to $100 likely runs through a series of steps. A first rebound to the 200-day moving average at $88.99, a pullback to retest $84 to $85, and a second leg through $94.48 toward $100. That sequence would take two to four weeks under normal conditions. A sudden catalyst, such as a large ETF inflow or a softer Fed outlook, could compress it into days.

Positioning, Funding and the Squeeze Setup

Derivatives positioning has shifted sharply over the past week. The liquidation of $28.77 million in long positions in a single day removed a large part of the leveraged bullish exposure. Open interest fell 2.22%, mostly from longs closing. Funding rates on perpetual futures, which measure the cost of holding leveraged longs, have dropped toward neutral or negative territory. When funding turns negative, short sellers pay longs to hold their positions. That is a sign of crowded bearish positioning.

Crowded shorts create squeeze potential. If SOL rises from $84.73 to $88.99, short sellers who entered below the 200-day moving average would face losses and might buy to cover. That buying would push the price higher, triggering more covering. Squeezes in crypto can lift prices 10% to 15% in hours. The current setup, with oversold RSI, flushed longs and building shorts, is the type of configuration that produces them.

Spot holders have behaved differently. Despite the steep decline, ETF holders have redeemed only a small share of their holdings. Cumulative inflows of $1.414 billion against $46.1 million of outflows over four sessions means that more than 96% of the net capital that entered the funds remains invested. Most institutional holders are sitting through the drawdown rather than selling.

Exchange balances tell a mixed story. The $26 million in exchange deposits before the November 10 drop showed some holders preparing to sell. If those deposits do not turn into further selling, and withdrawals from exchanges resume, it would signal that holders are moving tokens back into cold storage or staking. That shift would reduce the supply available for sale and support a rebound.

The positioning setup favors a short-term bounce. The combination of oversold momentum, liquidated longs, negative or neutral funding and patient spot holders creates the conditions for a relief rally. The question is whether the rally can extend beyond the 200-day moving average. That will depend on whether ETF flows turn positive and whether Bitcoin stabilizes.

Verdict: Accumulate in the $78–$82 Zone, $100 Target

Solana at $84.73 is a buy for traders willing to accept further volatility, with an upside target of $100 and a stop below $78. The case rests on four facts. The daily RSI at 23.41 is deeply oversold, at a level that has preceded rebounds of 15% to 25% in the past. Long liquidations of $28.77 million in 24 hours have cleared the leveraged buyers that drive forced selling. The network is running at full strength, with 93.48 million daily transactions, 2.71 million active addresses and the Alpenglow upgrade live since October 21. ETF holders have redeemed only $46.1 million against $1.414 billion of cumulative inflows, so institutional capital remains invested.

The risks are clear. ETF outflows have run for five straight weeks, and the staking ratio has slipped from 70% to 68.26%. The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.998% and a 91.9% probability of a December Fed hike keep pressure on risk assets. Prediction markets put a 65% probability on a print below $80 this month. China’s halt of the Solana Accelerate event adds a regulatory overhang. A break below $75.56 would erase the autumn rally and invalidate the bullish setup.

The best entry is in the $78 to $82 zone, where the double bottom at $81.25 to $81.62 and the August base meet. A capitulation wick below $80, followed by a recovery above $81.62, would provide the cleanest signal. Traders buying at current prices should keep a stop below $78, risking 7.9% against an 18.0% gain to $100.

The path higher runs through $88.99, the 200-day moving average, then $94.48, the November 2 swing high, and then the $100 target. A first day of ETF net inflows would confirm the turn. A stable Bitcoin is the precondition. Above $81.25, the bias is cautiously bullish toward $100. Below $75.56, the forecast flips bearish, with $70 as the next target.

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