XRPI Targets $6.69 and XRPR $10.15 as XRP ETFs Stabilize Above 52-Week Lows With XRP Holding $1.06

The Volatility Shares XRP ETF, XRPI, closed at $5.69 on Nasdaq on Wednesday, November 11. That is $0.03, or 0.53%, above Tuesday’s close of $5.66. The fund opened at $5.62, which was also its session low, and reached a high of $5.76 before settling near the middle of the range. After-hours trading held at $5.68. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF, XRPR, traded at $8.64 on Cboe at 3:02 p.m. Eastern, up $0.03, or 0.35%. It opened at $8.54, its low, and reached $8.70. Both funds posted their first gain after a sharp run of losses.

The slide that preceded Wednesday was steep. XRPI closed at $6.95 on November 4. It fell $0.38, or 5.46%, to $6.57 on November 5, after opening at its session high of $6.96. It dropped $0.42, or 6.72%, to $5.83 on November 9. It lost another $0.17, or 2.92%, to $5.66 on Tuesday. From the November 4 close, XRPI has fallen $1.26, or 18.1%, in five sessions. Wednesday’s $0.03 gain recovered just 2.4% of that loss.

The 52-week picture shows how far both funds have fallen. XRPI’s 52-week high is $14.82. At $5.69, it sits $9.13, or 61.6%, below that peak. Its 52-week low is $5.42, just $0.27, or 4.7%, below the current price. XRPR’s 52-week high is $20.75. At $8.64, it sits $12.11, or 58.4%, below the peak. Its 52-week low is $8.10, $0.54, or 6.3%, below the current price. Both funds are trading within a few percent of their lows for the year.

The two funds track the same asset but in different ways. XRPI provides 1x exposure to XRP through CME futures contracts and does not hold the token directly. XRPR, which launched in September 2025, was the first US fund to give investors XRP exposure in an ETF wrapper. Both predate the spot XRP ETFs that began trading in November 2025. Their prices move with XRP, which traded near $1.06 on Wednesday after hitting $1.03 on Tuesday.

The forecast below ties both funds to XRP’s next move. A recovery in XRP to $1.25 would lift XRPI to $6.69 and XRPR to $10.15. The supports to defend are XRPI’s $5.42 low and XRPR’s $8.10 low, which correspond to XRP near $1.01 to $1.00. A break of those levels would put both funds at new 52-week lows.

XRP at $1.06: Five Red Weeks and a Test of $1

XRPI and XRPR depend entirely on XRP’s price. The token traded near $1.06 on Wednesday, down 2.57% on the day. On Tuesday, it opened at $1.0977, fell to $1.0553 by the close and set an intraday wick low near $1.03, with another print at $1.0461. The decline came as hotter-than-expected US inflation data hit risk assets. October CPI rose 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast. XRP has now closed lower for five straight weeks.

The November decline has been rapid. XRP traded at $1.3047 on November 4. It closed at $1.1105 on November 8, down 14.9% in four days. It broke the $1.10 support on November 10 and reached the $1.03 to $1.05 zone. From November 4 to Wednesday’s $1.06, the token has lost 18.8%. XRPI’s 18.1% decline over the same period matches that move almost exactly, confirming that the fund tracks XRP closely.

The yearly view is worse. XRP ended 2025 at $1.8400. At $1.06, it is down 42.4% for the year. Its 52-week high of $2.5772 came on November 10, 2025, almost exactly one year ago. The token has lost 58.9% from that peak. Against its all-time high of $3.65, XRP trades 71.0% lower. The 52-week low of $0.9884 came on August 14, 2026. XRP sits just 7.2% above that low.

The August low matters for the forecast. When XRP last tested the $1 zone in mid-August, it rallied 52% over the following weeks. That rally took the token back above $1.50 and lifted XRPI and XRPR well off their lows. The current test of the same zone sets up a similar question: whether buyers defend $1.00 again or whether the token breaks to new lows.

The round number is the key level. A daily close below $1.00 would put XRP below its 52-week low of $0.9884. That would also push XRPI below $5.42 and XRPR below $8.10, setting new lows for both funds. A hold above $1.00, followed by a recovery above $1.10, would set up a rebound toward $1.16 and then $1.25. Those XRP levels translate directly into the XRPI and XRPR targets.

How XRPI Works: CME Futures Through a Cayman Subsidiary

XRPI is an actively managed fund that gains XRP exposure through near-term CME futures contracts and XRP-linked instruments. It does not buy or hold XRP tokens. The fund invests through a Cayman Islands subsidiary, which holds the futures contracts, and it allocates at least 80% of its net assets to XRP-related products. The rest of its assets sit in cash, cash equivalents and high-quality securities that serve as collateral for the futures positions.

The futures structure has advantages and costs. The advantage is regulatory and operational simplicity. Futures trade on a regulated exchange, and the fund does not need to custody tokens. That allowed XRPI to launch on May 22, 2025, months before spot XRP ETFs received approval. It was the first XRP futures ETF on Nasdaq. The cost is the roll. Each month, the fund must sell expiring futures and buy the next contract. When later contracts trade at higher prices than near-term contracts, a condition called contango, the fund loses value on each roll.

The roll cost varies with market conditions. In bullish periods, XRP futures often trade at a premium to spot, and the roll cost can reach several percent a year. In bearish periods, the premium shrinks and the roll cost falls. With XRP funding rates on perpetual futures at their highest level in more than a year, the futures curve likely carries a premium, which adds to XRPI’s holding cost.

The collateral earns interest, which partly offsets the roll. XRPI holds most of its assets in Treasury bills and money market funds as collateral. With short-term rates near 4%, that collateral earns meaningful income. The fund passes part of that income to shareholders through monthly distributions. Recent distributions have been small, near $0.01 per share, after $0.0263 in January and $0.0163 in February. The next ex-dividend date is November 18.

The fee structure is higher than spot funds. Volatility Shares waived part of its management fee until June 30, 2026, holding the fee at 0.94% of net assets. After the waiver expired, the management fee rose to 1.15%. That is several times higher than the fees charged by most spot XRP ETFs. For short-term traders, the fee matters little. For long-term holders, the combination of fees and roll costs makes XRPI more expensive to hold than a spot fund.

XRPI’s Assets Fall to $93.89 Million

XRPI’s net assets stood at $93.89 million on November 6, down from $99.39 million in mid-October. The decline of $5.50 million, or 5.5%, came mostly from the falling XRP price. The fund had 13.97 million shares outstanding in October, and its share count has since edged toward 13.35 million. Fewer shares mean some holders have redeemed. Its net asset value on November 6 was $6.24, and its market price stayed within a few cents of that figure.

Since then, the price has fallen further. At $5.69, XRPI trades 8.8% below its November 6 NAV. Applying that decline to the $93.89 million asset base, the fund’s net assets are now near $85.6 million. That would be the lowest level since early in the fund’s history. The asset decline reflects the price drop more than redemptions, which shows that most XRPI holders are sitting through the decline.

Liquidity remains adequate. On November 9, XRPI traded 1,048,000 shares, a large volume for a fund of its size. The median 30-day bid-ask spread stands at 0.13%, which means a round-trip trade costs about $0.0074 per share at current prices. The fund’s premium or discount to NAV has stayed within a range of a few hundredths of a percent, most recently 0.07%. Authorized participants keep the price aligned with the value of the futures holdings.

The fund’s one-year fund flows totaled $234.79 million in net new money, according to its records. That figure shows strong demand during 2025, when XRP traded above $2. Much of that capital entered at higher prices and now sits at a loss. Holders who bought near the $14.82 peak have lost 61.6%. Those holders are the most likely to sell on any rebound, which creates overhead supply as the fund recovers.

The fund’s small size compared with spot ETFs is a structural issue. XRPI’s $85.6 million in assets is a fraction of the $1.26 billion held by the six spot XRP ETFs. Investors who want XRP exposure now have cheaper options that hold the token directly. XRPI’s appeal lies in its liquidity, its options market and its familiarity to traders who used it before the spot funds launched.

XRPR: The First US XRP ETF Faces Spot Competition

The REX-Osprey XRP ETF launched in September 2025. It was the first US fund to give investors XRP exposure, arriving before both the spot XRP ETFs that followed in November 2025 and several of the futures products. At launch, it was the only way for US investors to buy XRP exposure in an ETF wrapper. That first-mover advantage drew early inflows and made XRPR the default choice for several weeks.

Its competitive position has weakened since then. Multiple spot XRP ETFs have launched with lower fees and direct token holdings. Spot XRP ETF trading volume on November 4 showed Bitwise at $14.44 million, Franklin Templeton at $5.08 million, Canary Capital at $1.42 million, Grayscale at $447,460, REX-Osprey at $49,480 and 21Shares at $41,500. XRPR’s volume was a tiny share of the group’s total. On that day, Bitwise’s spot fund traded 292 times as much dollar volume as XRPR.

Low volume creates costs for traders. Thin trading can widen bid-ask spreads and make it harder to enter or exit large positions. Earlier in 2026, XRPR’s average daily volume was near 41,930 shares. At $8.64, that equals $362,275 of daily trading. A trader trying to move $1 million would represent nearly three days of average volume. That limits XRPR’s usefulness for institutions and active traders.

The price tracking remains close. XRPR’s move from $8.61 to $8.64 on Wednesday, a 0.35% gain, aligns with XRP’s stabilization. The fund’s price-to-XRP ratio stands at about 8.12. Each $0.10 move in XRP translates to roughly $0.81 in XRPR. XRPI’s ratio is about 5.35, so each $0.10 move in XRP translates to roughly $0.54 in XRPI. The percentage moves in both funds should match XRP’s percentage moves, minus fees and tracking costs.

XRPR’s 52-week range of $8.10 to $20.75 reflects the full arc of XRP’s move from its peak near $2.58 to its current level. The fund’s 58.4% decline from its high is slightly smaller than XRPI’s 61.6% decline. The difference reflects timing and structural factors, including XRPI’s roll costs and the different dates on which each fund set its high. Both funds have lost close to 60%, in line with XRP’s 58.9% decline from its 52-week high.

Spot XRP ETFs Lose $18.04 Million in Two Sessions

The spot XRP ETF complex has turned from inflows to outflows. On November 9, spot XRP ETFs recorded net outflows of $10.42 million. On November 10, they lost another $7.62 million. The two-day total reached $18.04 million. Those outflows followed four sessions with no net flows from November 3 to November 6. Every session in November has been flat or negative.

One fund drove each day’s selling. On November 9, the Bitwise XRP ETF accounted for $9.4 million of the $10.42 million outflow, or 90%. The other spot funds saw negligible movement. On November 10, Grayscale’s GXRP lost $7.17 million and Canary’s XRPC lost $449,756. In both cases, a single large redemption from one fund produced most of the day’s outflow. That pattern points to a small number of large holders exiting rather than broad selling across the investor base.

The longer view is weaker. From October 12 to November 9, spot XRP ETFs recorded a net outflow of $4.2 million. Before mid-October, spot XRP ETFs had logged zero net flows on 10 of 22 sessions. Demand for XRP ETFs has been stagnant for more than a month, and the November outflows have tipped it negative.

The holdings remain large. The six spot XRP ETFs hold 1.16 billion XRP, worth $1.26 billion. The Bitwise XRP ETF holds the most, at 406.77 million XRP as of the November 10 close. The Franklin XRP ETF, XRPZ, holds 310.43 million XRP. Together, those two funds hold 717.20 million XRP, or 61.8% of the spot complex. The two-day outflow of $18.04 million equals 1.4% of total spot holdings.

The spot outflows weigh on XRPI and XRPR indirectly. When spot ETFs redeem, they sell XRP tokens, which adds supply and pushes the price lower. That price decline lowers XRPI and XRPR. The spot funds also compete with XRPI and XRPR for investor capital. If spot flows turn positive, the improved sentiment would lift XRP and both older funds. If they stay negative, the pressure continues.

The Spot ETF Anniversary on November 13

The first US spot XRP ETF turns one year old on Friday, November 13. The anniversary marks a full year of direct XRP exposure for US investors through a standard brokerage account. It also provides a natural point to assess the products. The record is mixed. The funds attracted strong inflows in their first months, when XRP traded above $2, but demand has faded as the price fell.

The spot ETF holders sit on large losses. Holders across the complex carry roughly $440 million in unrealized losses. Most of the capital that entered the funds came in during late 2025 and early 2026, when XRP traded between $1.80 and $2.58. At $1.06, those holders have lost between 41% and 59%. That loss explains why flows have stalled. Investors who bought at higher prices are reluctant to add more until the price recovers.

The anniversary could bring attention. One-year milestones often generate commentary and marketing from issuers. Some advisers review positions after a full year. That review could lead to tax-loss harvesting, where investors sell losing positions to offset gains elsewhere, adding to outflows in late November and December. It could also bring new buyers who see the depressed price as an entry point.

Tax-loss selling is a real risk for both spot funds and XRPI and XRPR. US investors can deduct capital losses against gains, and many harvest losses in November and December. With XRP down 42.4% for the year and both funds down near 60% from their highs, many holders have losses to harvest. That selling could keep pressure on prices through year-end. Once the harvesting window closes, the selling usually stops, and January often brings a rebound.

The anniversary also highlights how the market has changed. A year ago, XRP ETFs were new, and investors expected them to drive large inflows similar to Bitcoin ETFs. Instead, XRP ETF holdings equal about 2.3% of XRP’s market capitalization. Bitcoin ETFs hold a much larger share of Bitcoin supply. The XRP ETF market has not yet become a dominant source of demand, which limits its ability to support the price during declines.

Funding Rates at a 13-Month High Meet Falling Prices

The derivatives market sends a conflicting signal. XRP funding rates on perpetual futures have reached their highest level in more than a year, even as the token enters a 30% correction. A high funding rate means traders holding leveraged long positions pay a premium to short sellers. That indicates bullish positioning among derivatives traders, who are betting on a rebound while the spot price and ETF flows point lower.

The divergence carries risk. When funding rates are high and the price keeps falling, leveraged longs face growing losses. If the price breaks a key level, such as $1.00, those positions could be liquidated in a cascade. Forced selling from liquidations would push the price lower quickly. That scenario would take XRPI and XRPR to new lows within hours.

Open interest has fallen more slowly than price. On one major exchange, XRP open interest stood at $132.1 million on November 4 and $101.9 million on November 10. The decline of $30.2 million, or 23%, is meaningful but smaller than the full leverage flush that typically marks a bottom. Leverage is shrinking, but some bullish positions remain. A further drop in open interest would clear the remaining leveraged longs and remove the cascade risk.

The positioning also creates squeeze potential in the other direction. If XRP holds $1.00 and starts to rise, the leveraged longs would profit and add to their positions. Short sellers who entered during the decline would need to cover, adding buying pressure. A move from $1.06 to $1.16 could happen quickly in that scenario. That would lift XRPI to $6.21 and XRPR to $9.42.

The divergence will resolve within days. Either the price holds and the high funding rates prove justified, or the price breaks and the leveraged longs are forced out. The direction of that resolution will decide whether XRPI tests its $5.42 low or rebounds toward $6.21. Traders should watch the funding rate closely. A sharp drop in funding without a price decline would show that leverage is leaving calmly, which is a constructive sign.

The Binance Hacker and the Stolen XRP Overhang

A specific source of supply has weighed on XRP in November. The attacker behind a Binance-related theft has moved more than 200 million stolen XRP since November 5. At current prices, that is more than $212 million worth of XRP. The attacker has been passing the tokens through wallets and exchanges, likely selling part of the holdings. That flow has added to selling pressure during the worst days of the November decline.

The overhang matters because of its size relative to other flows. The two-day spot ETF outflow of $18.04 million is less than one-tenth of the value of XRP the attacker has moved. Even if only part of the stolen XRP reaches exchanges and is sold, it represents a large source of supply. Market participants watch the attacker’s wallets closely. Each large transfer creates fear of new selling.

The supply on exchanges is otherwise limited. Only 225 million XRP are listed for sale across 64 exchanges. That figure is small against XRP’s total supply. The stolen tokens, at more than 200 million XRP, are close in size to all the XRP listed for sale across those exchanges. When the attacker moves tokens, the effect on available supply is large, which explains the sharp price reactions.

The overhang has a natural limit. Once the attacker has moved or sold most of the stolen XRP, the selling stops. If the outflow from the attacker’s wallets slows and ETF flows stay neutral, XRP could move sideways in the $1.00 to $1.16 range while funding rates decline. That sideways move would give XRPI and XRPR time to stabilize near current levels before any recovery.

Large-holder data offer a counterweight. Wallets holding at least 1 million XRP recently reached a 2026 high, and 13.24 million XRP left exchanges in one session. Whales accumulating while the attacker distributes is a classic sign of a market transferring tokens from weak hands to strong hands. If that accumulation continues, it would absorb the attacker’s supply and set up a recovery once the overhang clears.

Technical Map: XRPI Support at $5.42, Target $6.69

The technical levels for XRPI and XRPR map directly to XRP’s levels. For XRPI, the first support is Wednesday’s low of $5.62, followed by Tuesday’s close near $5.66. The main support is the 52-week low of $5.42, which corresponds to XRP near $1.01. A close below $5.42 would put XRPI at a new 52-week low. The next level below that would be $5.35, which corresponds to XRP at $1.00.

For XRPR, the first support is Wednesday’s low of $8.54. The main support is the 52-week low of $8.10, which corresponds to XRP near $1.00. A close below $8.10 would put XRPR at a new low. Both funds are within 7% of their lows, which means a modest further decline in XRP would break both levels at the same time.

Resistance for XRPI starts at Wednesday’s high of $5.76 and then $5.83, the November 9 close. The first upside target is $6.21, which corresponds to XRP at $1.16. Above that, $6.57, the November 5 close, marks the next level. The main target is $6.69, which corresponds to XRP at $1.25. Reaching $6.69 would require a gain of $1.00, or 17.6%, from $5.69.

For XRPR, resistance starts at $8.70, Wednesday’s high. The first target is $9.42, matching XRP at $1.16. The main target is $10.15, matching XRP at $1.25. Reaching $10.15 would require a gain of $1.51, or 17.5%, from $8.64. Both targets assume XRP recovers to $1.25, which would mean a 17.9% rally from $1.06.

The trading plan follows from these levels. Buyers can enter XRPI in the $5.62 to $5.69 zone with a stop below $5.35, risking $0.27 to $0.34 per share. Against the $6.69 target, that gives a reward-to-risk ratio near 3 to 1. For XRPR, entries in the $8.54 to $8.64 zone with a stop below $8.05 risk $0.49 to $0.59 against a $1.51 gain to $10.15, a ratio near 2.6 to 1. A close above $5.83 for XRPI or $8.70 for XRPR would confirm the rebound and support adding to positions.

Choosing Between XRPI, XRPR and the Spot Funds

Investors who want XRP exposure through an ETF now have several choices. The spot funds, led by Bitwise’s XRP ETF and Franklin’s XRPZ, hold XRP tokens directly. They charge lower fees and carry no roll costs. Their trading volume is much higher than XRPR’s. For long-term investors seeking the closest tracking at the lowest cost, the spot funds are the logical choice.

XRPI fits a different role. It has the most liquid options market among XRP ETFs and trades over 1 million shares on busy days. Its futures structure gives it a regulatory history that predates the spot funds. It pays monthly distributions from its collateral income. For active traders who want to use options or need deep liquidity, XRPI offers advantages that the spot funds do not yet match. Its 1.15% management fee and roll costs make it expensive to hold over long periods.

XRPR’s position is the weakest of the three. As the first XRP ETF in the US, it built an early following. Its low trading volume, which reached just $49,480 on November 4, makes it costly to trade in size. Investors who already hold XRPR may choose to keep it rather than incur taxes by selling. New investors have better options in both the spot funds and XRPI.

The choice also affects how investors handle tax-loss harvesting. An investor holding XRPR at a loss can sell it and buy a spot XRP ETF or XRPI to maintain exposure while realizing the loss. Because the funds use different structures and issuers, the switch may not trigger wash-sale rules in the same way as selling and rebuying the same fund. Investors should confirm the tax treatment with an adviser, but the existence of several XRP products gives holders flexibility.

All three options share the same core risk: XRP’s price. No fund structure protects against a further decline in the token. The difference between the funds lies in costs, liquidity and tracking. For the forecast, the key point is that XRPI and XRPR will move with XRP. A rebound to $1.25 lifts both to their targets. A break below $1.00 sends both to new lows.

Verdict: Speculative Buy Above XRP $1.00, XRPI $6.69 and XRPR $10.15 Targets

XRPI at $5.69 and XRPR at $8.64 are speculative buys above XRP’s $1.00 support, with targets of $6.69 for XRPI and $10.15 for XRPR on an XRP rebound to $1.25. The case rests on four facts. XRP sits just 7.2% above its August low of $0.9884, a level that launched a 52% rally three months ago. Whale wallets holding at least 1 million XRP have reached a 2026 high, showing accumulation during the decline. The spot ETF outflows of $18.04 million over two days came mostly from single large redemptions, not broad selling. Both funds have stabilized after an 18% five-session slide, with Wednesday’s small gains marking the first pause.

The risks are clear and large. XRP has fallen for five straight weeks and is down 42.4% for the year. Spot XRP ETFs have recorded no net inflows in November, and the anniversary on November 13 could bring tax-loss selling. The attacker who stole XRP has moved more than 200 million tokens since November 5, creating supply equal to all the XRP listed on exchanges. Funding rates at a 13-month high leave leveraged longs exposed to a liquidation cascade if $1.00 breaks. A close below $1.00 would send XRPI below $5.42 and XRPR below $8.10, both to new 52-week lows.

The trade setup reflects that risk. For XRPI, entries in the $5.62 to $5.69 zone with a stop below $5.35 risk 6% against a 17.6% gain to $6.69. For XRPR, entries near $8.54 to $8.64 with a stop below $8.05 risk 7% against a 17.5% gain to $10.15. Position sizes should be small, given the volatility of both funds and the proximity to their lows.

For investors choosing between the funds, the spot XRP ETFs offer lower costs for long-term holding, XRPI offers the deepest liquidity and options market, and XRPR offers the weakest combination of cost and liquidity. Above XRP $1.00, the bias is cautiously bullish toward $1.25 and the $6.69 and $10.15 targets. Below $1.00, the forecast flips bearish, with XRPI at $5.00 and XRPR at $7.60 as the next downside levels.

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