Solana Tests $114 Breakout After 26% Monthly Gain — $120 Wall Opens Path to $130
SOL led the top five crypto assets over 30 days, ahead of BNB at 15.96% and Bitcoin at 11.74% | That's TradingNEWS
Key Points
- Solana fell 3.20% to $113.63 after reaching $118.19, its highest level since January 2026.
- U.S. spot Solana ETFs logged twelve straight weeks of inflows, reaching $1.62 billion in assets.
- Solana cut slot times to 250 milliseconds and generated $23 million in fees over 30 days.
Solana has been the strongest large-cap crypto asset of the past month, and Wednesday tested how much of that strength survives a rate shock. SOL traded at $113.63 with $4.78 billion in 24-hour volume, down 3.20% over the day but still up 19.70% over seven days. The token traded near $116 early Wednesday before U.S. data added pressure. On Monday, September 21, SOL reached $118.19 intraday and $117.79 on the day, above every hourly price of the previous 90 days and its highest level since January 2026.
The monthly scorecard shows why Solana is on traders' screens. Over 30 days to September 21, SOL gained 26.37%, the best performance among the five largest crypto assets, ahead of BNB at 15.96%, Ethereum at 14.34%, Bitcoin at 11.74% and XRP at 3.60%. Solana has outperformed Bitcoin by more than 14 percentage points in a month.
The macro backdrop turned hostile on Wednesday. The U.S. composite PMI jumped to 58.4, with services at 58.7 and manufacturing at 57.0, both five-year highs. Input costs rose at the fastest pace since October 2022. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.058%, its highest since July 2007, the 2-year rose to 4.874%, and October Fed hike odds climbed above 53%. Bitcoin fell 2.30% to $84,255.74, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.06%.
The institutional bid is steady but thinner than it was. U.S. spot Solana ETFs have booked net inflows for twelve consecutive weeks, collecting roughly $1.4 billion with assets under management at $1.62 billion. On September 21, Solana ETFs added $26.10 million. But weekly flows have dropped from $153.87 million in the week to August 28 to $6.18 million in the week to September 4 and $13.2 million to $60.7 million in the week to September 18, depending on which products are counted.
The rally has been driven by derivatives and short covering. SOL's push to $117.23 on September 21 triggered $18 million in short liquidations within 24 hours, and derivatives trading volume jumped 88.78% to $13.28 billion. That is a leverage-fuelled move, and leverage-fuelled moves retrace faster than ETF-driven ones.
The thesis for this forecast is direct. Solana has technical momentum, network upgrades and the strongest relative strength in crypto, which supports a retest of $118.19 and a push toward $120 and $130 once the rate shock fades. The rally is resting more on leverage than on ETF demand, which makes it vulnerable. A close below $110 would signal the breakout is failing and open the 20-day average near $103.
Session Tape: From $118.19 to $113.63 in 48 Hours
The path into Wednesday shows a breakout meeting its first real test. Solana stood at $117.79 on Monday, above every hourly price of the past 90 days, reaching $118.19 during the day. The previous high of that 90-day span was $114.02 on September 18. Monday's gain was 7.35% over 24 hours. The break above $114.02 was a genuine range breakout.
Tuesday held most of the move. SOL traded near $116 into Wednesday morning, with the key resistance wall at $120. A close above $120 opens $125 and $130 as the next targets, while $114 and $110 mark support. The token consolidated just below the $118 area without retreating toward the breakout level.
Wednesday's U.S. data changed the tone. The PMI landed at 9:45 a.m. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 9.4 basis points to 5.042% within minutes, and the dollar index rose 0.4% to its strongest level since late July. Bitcoin fell from $85,800 to a session low of $85,500, then extended its decline to $84,255.74 by 10:35 a.m. ET. Ethereum traded at $2,711.52 at 10:00 a.m. SOL slid to $113.63, down 3.20% over 24 hours.
The size of the pullback is modest. From $118.19 to $113.63, Solana has given back $4.56, a 3.9% decline. That compares with a 15.36% seven-day gain and a 26.37% thirty-day gain as of Monday. A 3.9% retracement after a move of that size is a normal pause.
The level structure matters. At $113.63, SOL sits just below the $114.02 breakout level from September 18. That level has flipped from resistance to support. A close back above $114 keeps the breakout intact. A close below $110 would mark a failed breakout and put the 20-day average near $103 in play.
The broader crypto tape shows rotation. Total crypto market capitalization rose from $2.90 trillion to $2.93 trillion over the 24 hours before the U.S. selloff, with 91% of the top coins gaining. Bitcoin Cash jumped 28.99% to $339.55 as the top gainer. Capital is chasing laggards as leaders stall. Solana was a leader of the September rally, which makes it a candidate for profit-taking.
Volume remains healthy. SOL's 24-hour volume of $4.78 billion on a pullback day shows active participation. Heavy volume on a decline can signal distribution, but on a 3% drop after a 26% monthly gain, it more likely reflects position trimming by short-term traders.
The Rate Shock: A 58.4 PMI and Why SOL Feels It More
Wednesday's pressure on Solana started with U.S. economic data. The flash composite PMI rose to 58.4 from 56.0. Backlogs grew at the fastest pace since May 2022, factory hiring rose at the quickest rate since February 2021, and the survey pointed to annualized growth near 5% and a 4% third quarter. Input costs rose at the fastest pace in 23 months.
The Fed is already tightening. On September 16, the Fed raised the federal funds target to a 3.75% to 4.00% range, its first increase since July 2023, and 16 of 18 policymakers projected another hike this year. After Wednesday's data, October hike odds rose above 53%. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Boston Fed President Susan Collins both warned on Tuesday of persistent inflation risk.
Solana carries more rate sensitivity than Bitcoin. SOL is a higher-beta asset, with larger moves in both directions. When the 10-year Treasury yield rises, speculative capital retreats from the riskiest assets first. Bitcoin fell 2.30% on Wednesday; Solana's 3.20% decline reflects that higher beta.
The staking yield offers less protection than it once did. Solana pays a native staking yield, but network inflation near 3.7% offsets much of that return in real terms. At a 5.058% 10-year yield and a 4.874% 2-year yield, Treasuries now pay more than net staking returns, with far less volatility. That shifts the relative appeal of holding SOL.
The dollar adds a second channel. The dollar index hit a seven-week high near 100.86 before the U.S. data and rose further after. EUR/USD fell to 1.1401 and GBP/USD to 1.3272. A strong dollar tightens global liquidity, which is the fuel for crypto rallies.
The Monday rally showed the reverse. On Monday, Brent fell below $100 on Iran de-escalation signals, the 10-year eased to 4.96%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.5% and 2.1%. Bitcoin broke above $86,000, and SOL's rally to $117.23 was partly fuelled by that move. Solana's September gain has been built on falling yields and rising risk appetite.
For the forecast, the 10-year yield is the most important macro variable. A close back below 5% would reopen the path to $118.19 and $120. A sustained hold above 5.05% keeps SOL pinned below $116 and raises the risk of a test toward $110.
ETF Flows: Twelve Straight Weeks, $1.62 Billion in Assets, but a Slowing Pace
The Solana ETF complex is growing steadily. U.S. spot Solana ETFs have logged twelve consecutive weeks of net inflows, collecting roughly $1.4 billion, with assets under management at $1.62 billion as of September 20. The direction is consistent. The pace is not.
The weekly data shows a sharp slowdown. Inflows reached $153.87 million in the week to August 28, fell to $6.18 million in the week to September 4, and came in between $13.2 million and $60.7 million in the week to September 18, depending on which products are counted. Both figures for the latest week are a fraction of what late August delivered.
Daily flows remain positive. On September 21, Solana ETFs recorded $26.10 million in net inflows, with Bitwise's BSOL taking $14.44 million, Grayscale's GSOL $7.80 million, Fidelity's FSOL $2.08 million and Franklin's SOEZ $1.02 million. Broad participation across four issuers shows demand from multiple investor bases.
The comparison with Bitcoin and Ethereum is revealing. On September 21, Bitcoin ETFs took in $999 million and Ether ETFs $270 million, while Solana ETFs took $26.10 million. Solana ETF inflows ran at 2.6% of Bitcoin's and 9.7% of Ether's on the same day. Institutional capital is flowing to the two largest assets first.
The market-cap ratio shows the gap. With 590 million SOL in circulation, SOL's market value at $113.63 stands near $67 billion. Bitcoin, at $1.69 trillion, is roughly 25 times larger. Solana's ETF assets of $1.62 billion compare with Bitcoin ETF cumulative net inflows of $58.7 billion, a ratio of 36 to 1. Solana is under-owned through ETFs relative to its market size.
The question for traders is where the money is coming from. With ETFs supplying only a trickle since the end of August, the September rally has been driven by derivatives, short covering and spot buying on exchanges rather than by institutional wrappers. That makes the rally more fragile.
Corporate treasury demand adds a separate bid. Forward Industries has converted into a Solana-focused treasury company, holding more than 6.9 million SOL, launching a $1 billion share repurchase program and running its own validator node. At $113.63, Forward's stake is worth $784 million.
For the forecast, ETF flows need to reaccelerate to support a sustained move above $120. A return to $100 million-plus weeks would signal institutional re-engagement. Weekly flows under $30 million are not enough to anchor a breakout.
Derivatives and Leverage: $7.33 Billion in Open Interest and $18 Million in Liquidations
Leverage has powered Solana's September rally. The push to $117.23 on September 21 triggered $18 million in SOL short liquidations within 24 hours, while derivatives trading volume jumped 88.78% to $13.28 billion. When shorts are forced to buy back positions, their buying accelerates the move.
Open interest has built up. SOL open interest stands at $7.33 billion, and options volume surged 111% to $37 million. Open interest at $7.33 billion is roughly 11% of Solana's $67 billion market value, a high ratio that signals heavy speculative positioning.
Momentum indicators are elevated but not extreme. The RSI reads 65.58, still below the overbought threshold of 70. That reading allows room for another push higher before momentum signals exhaustion.
Leverage cuts both ways. The same open interest that fuelled the rally becomes a source of forced selling on the way down. Longs opened near $117 to $118 are now underwater at $113.63. If SOL breaks below $110, stop-losses and liquidations among recent longs could accelerate the decline toward the 20-day average near $103.
Friday's quarterly options expiry adds volatility. The Bitcoin market faces an $18 billion quarterly expiry on Friday, and bullish call positioning and dealer hedging helped fuel the recent crypto rally; those flows could fade after settlement. Solana's options market is smaller, but its surge in options volume shows that dealer-hedging dynamics now affect SOL too. Expect wider daily ranges from Monday, September 28.
Market-wide leverage has also risen. Futures open interest across BTC, ETH and SOL jumped 7.6% during the recent rally, while short-term Bitcoin holders moved 47,600 BTC to exchanges. Rising leverage alongside profit-taking by short-term holders is a classic late-rally setup.
The positioning signals favour patience. A leverage-driven breakout often retests its breakout level before continuing. For Solana, that means a test of $110 to $114 would be a healthy reset that clears excess longs before another attempt at $120.
For the forecast, the $110 level is the leverage line. Holding above it keeps the breakout structure intact. Losing it risks a cascade that could quickly take SOL toward $103.
Network Upgrades: 250ms Slots, Transaction V1 and the Alpenglow Target
Solana's technical roadmap is delivering. Solana reduced its slot time to 250 milliseconds on September 18, with a target of 200 milliseconds to cut confirmation times. On September 9, the Transaction V1 format was activated, increasing the maximum transaction size by 3.3 times to enable complex operations such as zero-knowledge proofs. Both upgrades landed during September, adding a fundamental story to the price rally.
Faster slots matter for real applications. A 250-millisecond slot time means blocks are produced four times per second. For trading, payments and gaming applications, faster block times reduce latency and improve user experience. The move toward 200 milliseconds would push that to five blocks per second.
Larger transactions open new use cases. The 3.3x increase in maximum transaction size allows developers to bundle more instructions into a single transaction. That supports zero-knowledge proofs, complex DeFi operations and multi-step agent transactions that previously required several separate transactions.
The Alpenglow upgrade is the next major milestone. Solana's key catalysts include Firedancer validator diversity and the Alpenglow upgrade targeting 150-millisecond finality. Finality measures how quickly a transaction becomes irreversible. At 150 milliseconds, Solana would offer near-instant settlement, a critical feature for payments and financial applications.
Network activity supports the upgrade story. Solana's adoption metrics include 88 million daily transactions, $1.96 billion in DEX volume and $15.8 billion in stablecoins. Solana's protocol fees reached $23 million over 30 days, against $12.6 million for Ethereum over the same period. Higher fees than Ethereum show real economic demand for block space.
The fee picture needs context. In a recent 24-hour period, Solana recorded $1.09 million in fees and $120,591 in project revenue. Protocol fees are growing, but the absolute levels remain small relative to a $67 billion market value. The valuation still rests heavily on expected future adoption rather than current fee revenue.
Firedancer adds resilience. The Firedancer validator client provides a second independent implementation of Solana's validator software, which reduces the risk that a single software bug could halt the network. Solana's history of outages has been one of the biggest institutional concerns, and client diversity directly addresses it.
For the forecast, network upgrades provide a fundamental floor under the rally. They do not drive daily price action, but they support the medium-term case that Solana is maturing into a high-performance financial network.
Institutional Adoption: Payments, Stablecoins and Tokenization
Solana is gaining ground as a financial infrastructure layer. MoneyGram joined Solana as a network validator and infrastructure partner on June 22, staking SOL and processing blocks, its third blockchain validator deployment. A global remittance company running validator infrastructure signals a commitment to stablecoin-powered payments on Solana.
Stablecoin infrastructure is expanding. On September 21, the regulated bank Anchorage selected LayerZero to enable cross-chain stablecoin transfers, including those on Solana. With $15.8 billion in stablecoins on Solana, the network is one of the largest stablecoin platforms. Cross-chain connectivity through regulated institutions increases the utility of Solana-based stablecoins.
Tokenization is another channel. In September 2025, Galaxy Digital partnered with Superstate to tokenize its SEC-registered Class A common stock directly on Solana. Real-world asset tokenization brings traditional financial instruments onto the network, creating demand for transaction capacity and settlement.
AI agent payments are an emerging use case. Solana is competing with the XRP Ledger and Cardano to enable AI agent payments. As consumer AI agents like Meta's Muse, which reached 2.8 million downloads in 12 days, begin executing transactions, the blockchains that can settle payments fastest and cheapest stand to benefit. Solana's 250-millisecond slots and low fees position it well for that market.
Institutional product filings continue. Morgan Stanley filed for its own Solana Trust, and Morgan Stanley's MSOL fund is among the U.S. Solana ETF products. A major Wall Street bank building Solana products signals growing institutional comfort with the asset.
Institutional ownership is meaningful. About 49% of identifiable U.S. spot Solana ETF assets were associated with institutions disclosing holdings through 13F filings as of December 31. That compares with a much more retail-heavy profile for XRP ETFs. Institutional holders tend to be stickier through volatility.
The long-term value case rests on becoming a major global financial network. That thesis requires sustained adoption across payments, stablecoins, tokenization and DeFi. The September upgrades and institutional partnerships are steps in that direction.
For the forecast, institutional adoption supports Solana's medium-term floor. Payments partners, stablecoin infrastructure and tokenization create demand that is less sensitive to macro swings than pure speculation.
Supply and Valuation: 590 Million SOL, 3.7% Inflation, $67 Billion Market Value
Solana's supply structure differs from Bitcoin's. With a circulating supply of 590 million SOL, Solana's market value stands near $67 billion at $113.63. The network runs an inflation schedule that issues new SOL as staking rewards, with the rate currently near 3.7%.
Inflation is a structural headwind. At 3.7% annual inflation, circulating supply grows by roughly 21.8 million SOL a year. At $113.63, that is $2.48 billion of new supply annually. Stakers receive most of those new tokens, which offsets dilution for them, but non-stakers see their share of the network shrink.
The comparison with ETF demand frames the supply problem. Twelve weeks of ETF inflows totalled roughly $1.4 billion. At the current pace of $13 million to $60 million a week, annual ETF demand would run between $676 million and $3.1 billion. At the lower end, ETF demand would absorb less than a third of annual inflation. At the upper end, it would slightly exceed it.
The all-time high sets the long-run context. Solana's prior all-time high was $293 in January 2025, which would imply a market value near $171 billion today because of expanded supply. At $113.63, SOL sits 61% below that record. A return to the old high would require the network's value to rise 2.6 times.
The comparison with Ethereum is instructive. Solana's market value sits at roughly 20% of Ethereum's. With Ethereum near $331 billion, Solana at $67 billion is 20.2% of it. Solana generates more protocol fees than Ethereum over 30 days, yet trades at a fifth of its value. Bulls see that gap as an opportunity; bears see it as a reflection of Ethereum's deeper institutional base and more established DeFi ecosystem.
The recovery from the June low is steep. As of June 25, SOL traded at $66.34, near a 2.5-year low, with a market value of $38.51 billion. From $66.34 to $113.63, SOL has gained 71% in three months. The market value has risen by roughly $28 billion over that span.
For the forecast, supply and valuation frame the upside. Solana can rally hard on momentum and adoption news, but 3.7% inflation and modest ETF flows mean it needs sustained demand growth to hold gains. The 61% gap to the all-time high leaves significant long-term room.
Technical Structure: $114 Pivot, $120 Wall, $103 20-Day Average
The chart shows Solana at a critical juncture after a clean breakout. SOL broke above $114.02, the prior 90-day high from September 18, and reached $118.19 on September 21. At $113.63, the token has fallen back just below that breakout level.
Resistance is layered above. The first level is $116, Wednesday's early trade. Above that, $117.79 to $118.19 marks Monday's high zone and the highest levels since January. The key wall sits at $120; a close above it opens $125 and $130. A clean break of $130 would push SOL into territory it last traded in late 2025.
Support is well defined. The first line is $114.02, the former 90-day high that should now act as support. Below that, $110 is the next level, and a drop through it would test the 20-day average near $103. Deeper support sits at $100, the psychological level SOL fought around in early September, and $95, the level that anchored the recovery framework earlier this month.
The retracement math frames the risk. The rally from the early-September zone near $97.38 to $118.19 measures $20.81. A 38.2% retracement lands at $110.24, a 50% retracement at $107.79, and a 61.8% retracement at $105.33. The $110 support aligns with the shallowest retracement level, which makes it the most important line on the chart.
Momentum supports the uptrend. The RSI at 65.58 sits below overbought territory, leaving room for another push higher. Earlier in September, the RSI moved out of overbought and the Chaikin Money Flow held at 0.25, signalling continued capital inflows. Positive money flow and a non-overbought RSI favour further gains once the macro pressure lifts.
The longer-term structure has improved sharply. From the June 25 level of $66.34 to $113.63, SOL has recovered 71%. The token has moved from a 2.5-year low to an eight-month high in three months. That is a trend change on the weekly chart.
The trading range for the rest of the week runs from $110 to $118.19. A close above $118.19 targets $120 and $125. A close below $110 opens $103 to $107.79.
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Cross-Asset Map: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold and the Altcoin Rotation
Solana trades as a high-beta extension of the broader crypto and rate complex. On Wednesday, Bitcoin fell 2.30% to $84,255.74, Ethereum traded at $2,711.52, gold dropped 1.33% to $4,318.10, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.06%. Every non-yielding and high-beta asset lost ground on the same shock.
The Bitcoin relationship sets the direction. SOL's rally to $117.23 on September 21 was partly fuelled by Bitcoin breaking above $86,000. Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $2.306 billion across four sessions, and Bitcoin reached eight-month highs near $87,251 before pulling back. When Bitcoin strengthens, SOL outperforms; when Bitcoin weakens, SOL underperforms.
Solana has outperformed its peers. Over 30 days to September 21, SOL gained 26.37%, against 15.96% for BNB, 14.34% for Ethereum, 11.74% for Bitcoin and 3.60% for XRP. That outperformance reflects Solana's higher beta and the short-squeeze dynamics in its derivatives market. It also means SOL has more room to give back when momentum fades.
The ETF flow ranking tells a different story. On September 21, Bitcoin ETFs took $999 million, Ether ETFs $270 million and Solana ETFs $26.10 million. Institutional capital is flowing to Bitcoin first and Ether second. Solana's price outperformance has come from outside the ETF channel.
The dollar is the macro link. The dollar index reached a seven-week high near 100.86, and EUR/USD fell to 1.1401 while GBP/USD dropped to 1.3272. A strong dollar tightens global liquidity, which weighs on speculative assets. Solana, with a large global trading base, is sensitive to dollar strength.
The altcoin rotation is a late-rally signal. Bitcoin Cash's 28.99% jump and flows into Zcash show capital chasing laggards as leaders pause. Solana has been a leader of this rally, which makes it vulnerable to profit-taking as traders rotate into smaller coins.
The Nasdaq link is strong. Monday's crypto rally coincided with a 2.1% Nasdaq gain; Wednesday's pullback coincided with a 1.06% Nasdaq drop. Solana is trading as a leveraged tech proxy in the current regime. A view on tech stocks and yields is effectively a view on SOL.
For the forecast, the clearest cross-asset signals are the 10-year yield and Bitcoin's behaviour through Friday's expiry. If yields fall below 5% and Bitcoin holds $85,000, SOL can retest $118.19 and $120. If Bitcoin breaks below $82,000, SOL is likely to test $110 and possibly $103.
Catalyst Calendar: Fed Remarks, Friday's Expiry, Xi and October
The next five weeks carry a dense set of catalysts. The first is Fed commentary later Wednesday. After a 58.4 PMI, a hawkish tone is priced. A dovish surprise would pull yields lower and lift crypto broadly. A repeat of the Barkin-Collins message would keep pressure on SOL.
The second is Friday's quarterly options expiry. The Bitcoin market faces an $18 billion quarterly expiry, and the options flows that supported the rally could fade after settlement, raising volatility as traders roll into October and December contracts. Solana's options volume surged 111% during the rally, which means SOL will feel the post-expiry repositioning.
The third is the U.S.-China summit. President Xi Jinping's first visit to Washington in 11 years puts trade, rare earths, AI and the Iran war on the agenda. A trade de-escalation would lift risk appetite. A breakdown would strengthen the dollar and weigh on crypto.
The fourth is energy and Iran. The U.S. and Iran held three hours of talks at the United Nations, but Tehran denied it had dropped its preconditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. WTI rose 1.55% to $91.92 on a Libya pipeline disruption. Lower oil would ease inflation and yields, supporting SOL. Higher oil would add pressure.
The fifth is regulation. The CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate on September 15, and regulators are moving to fill the gap on crypto oversight. Solana's institutional adoption depends partly on regulatory clarity for staking, DeFi and tokenization. Any legislative progress after the midterm elections would be a positive catalyst.
The sixth is network development. The move from 250-millisecond to 200-millisecond slots and the Alpenglow upgrade targeting 150-millisecond finality are ongoing milestones. Successful delivery would reinforce the fundamental story.
The seventh is the October 28 FOMC decision. A second Fed hike would likely push SOL toward $103 to $105. A pause with hawkish language would likely spark a relief rally toward $120.
October has historically been a strong month for crypto, and traders often position for it in late September. That seasonal narrative can support dip-buying but raises the risk of disappointment if the month opens weak.
For the forecast, the calendar favours volatility. The macro backdrop sets the ceiling; network news and ETF flows set the floor.
Solana Price Forecast: $120 to $130 Target, $110 Line, Verdict
The forecast breaks into three scenarios, each keyed to the 10-year yield, derivatives positioning and ETF flows.
The bull case targets $120, 5.6% above the current price, with $130 as the extended target, 14.4% higher. It requires the 10-year yield to close back below 5%, Bitcoin to hold above $85,000 through Friday's expiry, and Solana ETF flows to reaccelerate toward $100 million-plus weeks. A daily close above $118.19 would confirm continuation, and a close above $120 would open $125 and $130. Another wave of short liquidations would accelerate the move. This path carries a 35% probability.
The base case is consolidation between $110 and $120 through the end of September. The 10-year stays between 4.95% and 5.10%, ETF inflows run at $13 million to $60 million a week, and Friday's expiry keeps prices contained. SOL retests the $114.02 breakout level and builds a base before the October FOMC. This path carries a 45% probability.
The bear case targets $103, the 20-day average, 9.4% below the current price, with $100 as an extension. It requires the 10-year to push toward 5.15%, October hike odds to climb above 70%, Bitcoin to break below $82,000 and leveraged longs to unwind. A daily close below $110 would confirm the breakdown. The $7.33 billion in open interest would amplify the selling. This path carries a 20% probability.
Levels to trade: resistance at $116, $118.19, $120, $125 and $130. Support at $114.02, $110.24, $107.79, $105.33, $103 and $100.
The verdict on Solana for September 23 is bullish on the medium-term structure and cautious for the next week. SOL at $113.63 is pulling back 3.9% from its $118.19 high, its best level since January, as a 58.4 U.S. PMI pushed the 10-year yield to 5.058% and October Fed hike odds above 53%. Solana was the strongest of the five largest crypto assets over 30 days, up 26.37%, backed by twelve straight weeks of ETF inflows totalling $1.4 billion, $1.62 billion in ETF assets, a 250-millisecond slot time, Transaction V1 activation, $15.8 billion in stablecoins and protocol fees of $23 million over 30 days against $12.6 million for Ethereum. Against that, weekly ETF inflows have slowed sharply from $153.87 million in late August, the rally rests on $7.33 billion of open interest and short liquidations, and 3.7% inflation dilutes holders. Dips toward $110 to $114 are buyable while $110 holds, and a close above $120 opens the path to $130.