XRP-USD ($1.56) Tests $1.50 After Rate Shock — Break of $1.70 Opens 28% Upside to $2.00

XRP-USD ($1.56) Tests $1.50 After Rate Shock — Break of $1.70 Opens 28% Upside to $2.00

XRP remains 57% below its $3.65 cycle top despite seven U.S. ETFs holding close to 1B tokens | That's TradingNEWS

Itai Smidt 9/23/2026 12:27:48 PM
Crypto XRP/USD XRP USD XRPR

Key Points

  • XRP traded at $1.56 at 9:16 a.m. ET, down 3.5% from $1.6161 after a 24.13% weekly gain.
  • U.S. spot XRP ETFs added $20.02 million on September 22, lifting net assets near $1.62 billion.
  • Escrow releases add 200 million to 400 million XRP a month, worth $312 million to $624 million at $1.56.

XRP is giving back part of a powerful week. The token traded at $1.56 at 9:16 a.m. ET on Wednesday, down from $1.6161 on Tuesday, a 3.5% pullback. The retreat follows a run that lifted XRP 24.13% over seven days and put it among the strongest large-cap performers in crypto during the September rebound. Trading volume held at $4.82 billion over 24 hours by the morning print.

The macro backdrop turned hostile after that print. At 9:45 a.m. ET, the U.S. composite PMI jumped to 58.4, with services at 58.7 and manufacturing at 57.0, both five-year highs, and input costs rising at the fastest pace since October 2022. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.058%, its highest since July 2007, and the 2-year climbed to 4.874%. Bitcoin fell 2.30% to $84,255.74 by mid-morning, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.06%. XRP carries higher volatility than Bitcoin, so the post-data pressure lands harder on it.

The institutional bid has not disappeared. U.S. spot XRP ETFs took in $20.02 million on September 22, after recording no net flows on September 21 with net assets at $1.62 billion. That is modest against Bitcoin ETF inflows of $714.7 million on the same day, but it keeps the ETF complex in positive territory during a week when price rose sharply.

The structural picture is the key to this forecast. XRP has won nearly every battle it was supposed to win: the SEC case ended, seven U.S. spot ETFs launched and now hold close to 1 billion XRP, Ripple secured conditional approval for a national trust bank, raised capital at a $50 billion valuation and spent roughly $4 billion on acquisitions. RLUSD, Ripple's stablecoin, crossed $1.6 billion. Yet XRP still trades 57% below its $3.65 cycle high from July 17, 2025, and is down 41.23% over the past year.

The reason is supply. Ripple releases 1 billion XRP from escrow each month and re-escrows 600 million to 800 million, which means 200 million to 400 million XRP enters circulation monthly. At $1.56, that is $312 million to $624 million of new supply every month, two to four times what the ETF complex absorbs.

The thesis for this forecast is direct. XRP needs sustained ETF and treasury demand to outrun escrow supply. As long as the $1.50 level holds and the rate shock fades, XRP can retest $1.70, 9% above the current price, with $2.00 as the extended target. If yields keep climbing and ETF flows stall, the $1.35 to $1.38 zone that held after the August Jackson Hole shock comes back into play.

Session Tape: From $1.6161 to $1.56 and the Post-PMI Slide

The pullback began before U.S. data. XRP traded at $1.6161 on Tuesday, up 3.34% over 24 hours and 24.13% on the week, with trading volume of $7.48 billion and a market value of $101.55 billion. That marked the top of the current leg. By Wednesday morning at 9:16 a.m. ET, the token had slipped to $1.56 on lower volume of $4.82 billion.

The volume drop matters. A 36% decline in 24-hour turnover, from $7.48 billion to $4.82 billion, alongside a 3.5% price pullback, signals profit-taking on thinning participation rather than aggressive selling. Buyers stepped back after a 24% weekly move; sellers did not flood the market. That is a healthy pause pattern, not a reversal signal on its own.

The broader crypto tape started firm. Total crypto market capitalization rose from $2.90 trillion to $2.93 trillion over the 24 hours before the U.S. session, with 91% of the top coins gaining. Bitcoin opened Wednesday at $86,195.28 and Ethereum at $2,753.25, both near eight-month highs.

The U.S. data changed the direction. The PMI hit at 9:45 a.m. ET, the 10-year yield jumped 9.4 basis points to 5.042% within minutes, and the dollar index rose 0.4% to its strongest level since late July. Bitcoin slid from $85,800 to a session low of $85,500, then extended the decline to $84,255.74 by 10:35 a.m. ET. Ethereum traded at $2,711.52 at 10:00 a.m. ET. XRP, as a high-beta asset, followed the same path.

The rotation inside crypto adds context. Bitcoin Cash surged 28.99% to $339.55 over 24 hours as the top gainer among the 200 largest tokens, with capital also flowing into Zcash. When capital rotates into smaller coins while the large caps fade, the rally is maturing. XRP has been one of the leaders of this move, which makes it a natural candidate for profit-taking.

The levels for the rest of the session are clear. $1.50 is the first line, the round number XRP broke through two weeks ago when Binance reserves hit a three-month high. A daily close below $1.50 would give back the breakout. A recovery above $1.6161 would signal that the post-PMI selling has run its course.

The Rate Shock: Why a 5.058% Ten-Year Hits XRP Harder

Wednesday's pressure started with the U.S. economy. The composite PMI rose to 58.4 from 56.0. Backlogs grew at the fastest pace since May 2022, factory hiring rose at the quickest rate since February 2021, and the survey pointed to annualized growth near 5% and a 4% third quarter. Input costs, driven by fuel, transport and wages, rose at the fastest pace in 23 months.

The Fed is already tightening. On September 16, the Fed raised the federal funds target by 25 basis points to a 3.75% to 4.00% range, its first increase since July 2023, and 16 of 18 policymakers projected another increase this year. After Wednesday's PMI, the odds of an October hike climbed above 53%. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Boston Fed President Susan Collins both warned on Tuesday of persistent inflation risk.

The transmission to XRP runs through risk appetite and liquidity. XRP pays no yield. At a 5.058% 10-year yield and a 4.874% 2-year yield, the opportunity cost of holding a volatile non-yielding asset is at its highest in nearly two decades. When yields jump, speculative capital retreats, and assets with the highest volatility fall hardest.

The dollar adds a second channel. The dollar index hit a seven-week high near 100.86 before the U.S. data and extended its gain afterward. EUR/USD fell to 1.1401 and GBP/USD to 1.3272, its lowest since July 2. A strong dollar tightens global liquidity, which is the fuel for speculative crypto rallies.

XRP has felt this before. In late August, the token surged from $1.00 to $1.70 in under 72 hours, then slid below $1.40 by the end of the week, with the $1.35 to $1.38 support zone tested after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech. Warsh told that symposium the inflation fight was not finished, and gold, Bitcoin and XRP all sold off on the same day. Wednesday's PMI is a milder version of the same shock.

The Monday rally showed the reverse. On Monday, Brent fell below $100 on Iran de-escalation signals, the 10-year eased to 4.96%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.5% and 2.1%. Crypto rallied with them. XRP's weekly gain of 24% was built on falling yields.

For the forecast, the 10-year yield is the most important macro input for XRP. A close back below 5% would reopen the path to $1.70. A sustained hold above 5.05% keeps XRP pinned below $1.60 and raises the risk of a test toward $1.44.

ETF Flows: $20 Million on Tuesday and a $1.62 Billion Asset Base

The XRP ETF complex is growing but remains small relative to supply. U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $20.02 million in net inflows on September 22. On September 21, the day Bitcoin ETFs took in $999 million and Ether ETFs $270 million, XRP ETFs recorded no net flows, with net assets closing at $1.62 billion.

The seven U.S. spot XRP ETFs span a range of issuers: Bitwise (XRP), Canary Capital (XRPC), Franklin Templeton (XRPZ), Grayscale (GXRP), REX-Osprey (XRPR), 21Shares (TOXR) and the Bitwise 10 Index fund. By May, they held more than $1.2 billion in assets and had locked up more than 840 million XRP tokens. Holdings have since grown to close to 1 billion XRP.

August was the best month of the year. XRP ETFs pulled in more than $150 million in August, their strongest 2026 performance and $18 million above the previous 2026 high of $131.94 million in May. Most of that came late in the month: $31.78 million in the week ending August 21 and $110.49 million in the week ending August 28, the largest weekly total since the week ending December 5. Bitwise's fund led with $92 million, 61% of the monthly total.

September has been slower. XRP ETFs took in just $19 million in the week to September 5, down 83% from $110.5 million the week before. That slowdown coincided with Bitcoin ETFs pulling in $731 million on a single day, September 3. Capital rotated toward Bitcoin as the macro picture tightened.

The investor base is a vulnerability. Retail drives 84% of XRP ETF inflows, with institutional capital largely sitting out ahead of regulatory clarity. Retail flows are more sensitive to price momentum and headlines, which makes XRP ETF demand more volatile than the institutional-dominated Bitcoin complex.

The scale gap is stark. XRP ETF net assets of $1.62 billion compare with a Bitcoin ETF complex that has absorbed $58.7 billion in cumulative net inflows. XRP's market value near $98 billion is 6% of Bitcoin's, while its ETF assets are less than 3% of Bitcoin ETF inflows. XRP is under-owned through regulated products relative to its market size.

For the forecast, ETF flows need to accelerate to matter. A return to $100 million-plus weeks, like late August, would support a push toward $1.70. Weekly flows near $20 million to $40 million are not enough to offset escrow supply.

The Escrow Problem: 200 to 400 Million XRP a Month

XRP's supply structure is the single biggest reason the token has lagged its fundamentals. XRP's total supply was fixed at 100 billion at genesis, with 80 billion allocated to Ripple and 20 billion to the founders. Ripple placed 55 billion XRP into monthly time-release escrows, with unused tokens automatically returning to escrow.

The monthly release is large. Ripple releases 1 billion XRP from escrow each month and re-escrows 600 million to 800 million, so 200 million to 400 million XRP enters circulation every month. That rate is two to four times faster than the entire ETF complex absorbs. At $1.56, the monthly net release equals $312 million to $624 million of potential sell-side supply.

The comparison with ETF demand is the core problem. August, the best ETF month of the year, brought in more than $150 million. Even at that pace, ETF buying absorbed only a quarter to a half of monthly escrow supply at current prices. In a normal month, with ETF inflows of $20 million to $80 million, escrow supply exceeds ETF demand by a factor of four to fifteen.

Circulating supply keeps growing as a result. XRP's circulating supply stands at 62.88 billion against a maximum of 100 billion. At a net release of 300 million per month, the midpoint, circulating supply grows by 3.6 billion XRP a year, a 5.7% annual dilution rate. An asset diluting at nearly 6% a year needs demand growth faster than that just to hold price.

Ripple's use of released XRP matters. Not every released token is sold on the open market. Ripple uses XRP for its payment products, institutional sales, partnerships and operations. But the market treats escrow releases as a supply overhang regardless of end use, because the tokens are available to be sold.

The August-September rally suggests demand may finally be catching up. When XRP surged more than 56% in a single week on short liquidations, renewed ETF inflows and broader crypto momentum, it showed that concentrated demand can overwhelm the supply flow in short bursts. The question is whether that demand can be sustained.

For the forecast, escrow is the ceiling on XRP. Rallies can run hard on short squeezes and momentum, but sustained moves above $2.00 require a structural increase in demand, such as institutional ETF allocation or a regulatory catalyst, that matches the monthly supply release.

Ripple's Corporate Build-Out: Trust Bank, $50 Billion Valuation, $4 Billion in Deals

Ripple's business has transformed in 2026, even as XRP has struggled. The company secured conditional approval for a national trust bank, raised capital at a $50 billion valuation and spent roughly $4 billion on acquisitions, including Hidden Road, GTreasury, Rail, Standard Custody and Palisade.

The acquisitions build a full financial services stack. Hidden Road is a prime brokerage, giving Ripple a foothold in institutional trading and clearing. GTreasury adds corporate treasury management software. Rail brings payment infrastructure. Standard Custody and Palisade provide digital-asset custody. Together, they position Ripple as a regulated, vertically integrated financial institution rather than a payments startup.

The national trust bank approval is the most significant step. A federally chartered trust bank can hold custody of client assets, offer fiduciary services and operate under national banking regulation. For institutional clients who have been reluctant to engage with crypto, a regulated bank charter removes a major barrier. If Ripple's bank uses XRP in settlement and custody products, it could create structural demand for the token.

RLUSD adds a second product line. Ripple's stablecoin crossed $1.6 billion in circulation. RLUSD competes in the dollar-stablecoin market and operates on the XRP Ledger, generating network activity. Stablecoin growth on the XRP Ledger increases transaction volume and supports the ledger's utility, even if it does not directly require holding XRP as a reserve asset.

Network activity is rising. XRP Ledger active addresses grew 35% in August, giving fund managers a fundamental, non-price argument for institutional XRP allocations. Rising active addresses signal genuine use, not just speculation. The ledger is also competing in AI agent payments, alongside Solana and Cardano, an emerging use case for fast, low-cost settlement.

The disconnect between Ripple's corporate value and XRP's price is the central tension. A company valued at $50 billion holds tens of billions of XRP in escrow and on its balance sheet. Ripple's success does not automatically translate into XRP price gains, because Ripple is both the largest holder and the largest seller through escrow releases.

For the forecast, Ripple's build-out is a long-term positive that has not yet shown up in price. The trust bank and custody businesses are the most likely channels for new institutional XRP demand. Their impact will take quarters, not days.

Regulation: The SEC Case Is Over, but the CLARITY Act Stalled

XRP's regulatory story has two sides. The SEC case against Ripple ended, removing the largest legal overhang the token has faced. Seven U.S. spot ETFs launched after the resolution, a direct result of regulatory clarity. For years, the lawsuit capped institutional interest; that barrier is gone.

The legislative front is less settled. The CLARITY Act, the crypto market-structure bill, stalled in the Senate on September 15. Bitcoin dropped to $74,888 that day. A Senate cloture vote had been viewed as a potential catalyst to unlock institutional capital that currently sits on the sidelines. That catalyst did not arrive.

The bill's specific relevance to XRP was significant. The legislation had advanced through committee with all 13 Republicans voting yes on a bipartisan 15-9 amendment, leaving XRP one Senate floor vote from being codified as a digital commodity. Commodity classification would place XRP under a clearer regulatory framework and reduce the risk of future securities challenges. The stall leaves that classification in limbo.

The gap is being filled by regulators. After the CLARITY Act stalled, state and federal regulators moved to fill the void on crypto oversight. Rule-making by agencies rather than Congress creates more uncertainty, because agency rules can change with leadership. For XRP, the risk is that a future regulator reopens questions the SEC case seemed to settle.

The institutional impact is direct. Retail investors drive 84% of XRP ETF inflows, while institutional capital waits for legislative clarity. Pension funds, endowments and registered advisers often need clear legal classification before allocating. Without the CLARITY Act, that capital stays on the sidelines, and XRP ETF flows remain retail-dominated and volatile.

The upside from regulation is still available. A renewed push on the CLARITY Act after the midterm elections could unlock institutional flows that have not yet entered XRP products. The Ripple trust bank approval also signals regulators are willing to integrate crypto firms into the banking system.

For the forecast, regulation is a pending catalyst. It will not drive price this week, but a legislative breakthrough in the fourth quarter would be the single largest positive event for XRP's institutional demand. The stall caps the upside until then.

Technical Structure: $1.50 Pivot, $1.70 August High, $1.35 to $1.38 Floor

The chart shows XRP testing the upper half of its post-August range. The token surged from $0.9888 on August 18 to $1.70 on August 22, a 71.9% gain in four days, then fell more than 20% to $1.37. That $1.70 high is the top of the range, and $1.37 marks the post-spike low.

The current leg has recovered most of that ground. From $1.37 to Tuesday's $1.6161, XRP gained 18%, retracing roughly 74% of the pullback from $1.70. Wednesday's $1.56 sits 8.2% below the August high and 13.9% above the post-spike low.

Resistance is layered above. The first level is $1.59 to $1.6161, the high of the recent 24-hour range and Tuesday's print. Above that, $1.70, the August 22 high, is the main target. A daily close above $1.70 would mark a new post-summer high and open the path toward $2.00, a round number with heavy psychological significance. $2.00 sits 28% above the current price.

Support is well defined. The first line is $1.50, the level XRP broke through two weeks ago as Binance reserves reached a three-month high. The key technical level just below is $1.44, which XRP had returned to before approaching structural resistance. The major floor sits at $1.35 to $1.38, the support zone tested after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. Below that, $1.00 is the psychological level from which the August surge launched.

The summer range provides the longer-term context. XRP spent most of the summer grinding between $0.90 and $1.10. The move from that range to $1.56 is a 42% to 73% gain, depending on the starting point. The token has rebuilt most of its 2026 losses from the summer lows.

The long-term chart remains weak. At $1.56, XRP sits 57% below its $3.65 cycle top from July 17, 2025, and 41.23% below its level a year ago. The recovery from the summer lows is strong, but the token is still deep in a multi-quarter correction.

The trading range for the rest of the week runs from $1.44 to $1.6161. A close above $1.6161 targets $1.70. A close below $1.44 opens the $1.35 to $1.38 support zone.

On-Chain and Positioning: Binance Reserves, Whales and Short Liquidations

The on-chain data shows a market with active participation from both buyers and sellers. XRP reserves on Binance hit a three-month high as the token broke through $1.50, suggesting increased exchange activity and possible accumulation. Rising exchange reserves can signal either buying interest from traders preparing to trade or selling pressure from holders preparing to exit. The interpretation depends on what follows.

Large holders are accumulating. XRP's recent strength has been driven by continuous accumulation from large holders and short covering, with short-term sentiment turning bullish. Whale accumulation provides a firmer base under price than retail momentum alone, because large holders tend to hold through volatility.

Short liquidations drove the sharpest moves. The August surge came from a combination of short liquidations, renewed ETF inflows and broader crypto momentum. When XRP breaks through resistance, traders who bet on declines are forced to buy back their positions, which accelerates the move higher. That dynamic produced the 71.9% four-day gain in August and part of the 24% gain this week.

The same mechanism creates downside risk. Once shorts are cleared, the rally loses one of its fuels. Futures open interest across major crypto assets jumped 7.6% during the recent rally, which means new long leverage entered the market. If price falls, those longs become the next source of forced selling.

Friday's quarterly options expiry adds volatility. The Bitcoin market faces an $18 billion quarterly expiry on Friday, and bullish call positioning and dealer hedging helped fuel the recent crypto rally. Those flows could fade after Friday's settlement. XRP options are smaller, but XRP trades in the same risk complex and will feel the same post-expiry volatility.

Network fundamentals support the bull case. XRP Ledger active addresses rose 35% in August, and the ledger is competing with Solana and Cardano in AI agent payments. Rising usage gives the token a demand source that is independent of speculation.

For the forecast, positioning argues for caution after a 24% weekly move. Short covering and leverage-fuelled rallies tend to retrace part of their gains before continuing. A pullback toward $1.44 to $1.50 would clear excess leverage and set up a cleaner next leg.

Cross-Asset Map: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold and the Dollar

XRP moves with the broader crypto and rate complex. Bitcoin fell 2.30% to $84,255.74 by mid-morning Wednesday. Ethereum traded at $2,711.52 at 10:00 a.m. ET, 3.3% below its Tuesday high. Gold futures dropped 1.33% to $4,318.10. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.06%. Every non-yielding and high-beta asset lost ground on the same rate shock.

The Bitcoin relationship defines XRP's direction. Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $2.306 billion across four sessions, and Bitcoin reached eight-month highs near $87,251 before pulling back. XRP's 24% weekly gain outpaced Bitcoin's rebound, making XRP a leveraged expression of the same macro relief. When Bitcoin falls on rising yields, XRP tends to fall further.

XRP has outperformed in recent weeks. Earlier in September, XRP had risen 39% over a month against Bitcoin's 23%, even as XRP ETF inflows slowed. That outperformance reflects XRP's higher beta and the short squeeze dynamics in its derivatives market. It also means XRP has more room to give back when momentum reverses.

The ETF flow comparison is revealing. On September 21, Bitcoin ETFs took in $999 million, Ether ETFs $270 million and XRP ETFs nothing. On September 22, Bitcoin ETFs took $714.7 million, Ether ETFs $162.2 million and XRP ETFs $20.02 million. Institutional capital is flowing into Bitcoin first, Ether second and XRP a distant third.

The dollar is the macro link. The dollar index reached a seven-week high near 100.86, and EUR/USD fell to 1.1401 while GBP/USD dropped to 1.3272. A strengthening dollar tightens global liquidity and weighs on speculative assets. XRP, as a global payments token with significant non-U.S. trading, is sensitive to dollar strength.

The altcoin rotation is a late-cycle signal. Bitcoin Cash's 28.99% gain and inflows into Zcash show capital chasing laggards as leaders stall. XRP was a leader in this rally, which makes it vulnerable to profit-taking as capital rotates toward smaller coins.

For the forecast, the clearest cross-asset signals are the 10-year yield and Bitcoin's reaction to Friday's expiry. If yields fall below 5% and Bitcoin holds $85,000, XRP can retest $1.6161 and $1.70. If Bitcoin breaks below $82,000, XRP is likely to test $1.44.

Catalyst Calendar: Fed, Xi, Iran and a Potential "Uptober"

The next five weeks carry several catalysts. The first is Fed commentary later Wednesday. After a 58.4 PMI, a hawkish tone is priced. A dovish surprise would pull yields lower and lift crypto broadly. A repeat of the Barkin-Collins message keeps pressure on XRP.

The second is Friday's quarterly options expiry. Bullish call positioning and dealer hedging supported the crypto rally, and those flows could fade after settlement, raising volatility as traders roll into October and December contracts. Expect wider daily ranges for XRP from Monday, September 28.

The third is the U.S.-China summit. President Xi Jinping's first visit to Washington in 11 years puts trade, rare earths, AI and the Iran war on the agenda. A trade de-escalation would lift risk appetite broadly. A breakdown would strengthen the dollar and hurt crypto.

The fourth is Iran and oil. The U.S. and Iran held three hours of talks at the United Nations, but Tehran denied it had dropped its preconditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. WTI rose 1.55% to $91.92 on Wednesday after a Libya pipeline disruption. Lower oil would ease inflation and yields, supporting XRP. Higher oil would add pressure.

The fifth is seasonality and sentiment. XRP's sharp recovery from its September low, renewed ETF flows and improving technical momentum have revived the "Uptober" narrative. October has historically been a strong month for crypto, and traders often position for it in late September. That positioning can become self-fulfilling in the short term, but it also raises the risk of disappointment if October starts weak.

The sixth is the October 28-29 FOMC. A second Fed hike would push XRP toward the $1.35 to $1.38 zone. A pause with hawkish language would likely spark a relief rally toward $1.70.

The seventh is regulatory. Any movement on the CLARITY Act after the midterms would be the largest single catalyst for institutional XRP demand. Ripple's trust bank build-out and custody expansion could also generate announcements that shift sentiment.

For the forecast, the calendar favours volatility over direction in the near term. The Fed sets the macro tone, and ETF flows and positioning decide how XRP responds.

XRP Price Forecast: $1.70 Target, $1.50 Line, Verdict

The forecast breaks into three scenarios, each keyed to the 10-year yield, ETF flows and the escrow supply balance.

The bull case targets $1.70, 9% above the current price, with $2.00 as the extended objective, 28% higher. It requires the 10-year yield to close back below 5%, XRP ETF inflows to return to $100 million-plus weeks as in late August, and Bitcoin to hold above $85,000 through Friday's expiry. A daily close above $1.6161 would signal continuation, and a close above $1.70 would mark a new post-summer high. The "Uptober" narrative and whale accumulation would amplify the move. This path carries a 30% probability.

The base case is consolidation between $1.44 and $1.70 into the October FOMC. The 10-year stays between 4.95% and 5.10%, XRP ETF flows run at $20 million to $50 million a week, and escrow supply caps rallies near $1.6161 to $1.70. XRP builds a base above $1.50 after its 24% weekly gain. This path carries a 45% probability.

The bear case targets $1.38, 11.5% below the current price, with $1.35 as the lower edge of the support zone. It requires the 10-year to push toward 5.15%, October hike odds to climb above 70%, XRP ETF flows to turn negative and Bitcoin to break below $82,000. A daily close below $1.44 would confirm the breakdown. Leverage built during the rally and monthly escrow releases of 200 million to 400 million XRP would add to the selling. This path carries a 25% probability.

Levels to trade: resistance at $1.59, $1.6161, $1.70 and $2.00. Support at $1.50, $1.44, $1.38, $1.35 and $1.00.

The verdict on XRP for September 23 is neutral with a bullish medium-term bias. XRP at $1.56 is pulling back 3.5% from Tuesday's $1.6161 after a 24.13% weekly gain, as a 58.4 U.S. PMI pushed the 10-year yield to 5.058% and October Fed hike odds above 53%. The fundamentals have improved sharply: the SEC case is over, seven U.S. ETFs hold close to 1 billion XRP with $1.62 billion in net assets, Ripple holds a conditional trust bank approval and a $50 billion valuation, RLUSD tops $1.6 billion and ledger active addresses rose 35% in August. Against that, escrow releases put 200 million to 400 million XRP into circulation each month, ETF demand is 84% retail and the CLARITY Act has stalled. XRP remains 57% below its $3.65 cycle top. Dips toward $1.44 to $1.50 are buyable while $1.35 to $1.38 holds, and a close above $1.70 opens the path to $2.00.

 

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