S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Rally as Core PCE Drops to 3.0%, MRNA Slides 6.56% and Micron Looms

Wall Street walked into the final session of September with the 30-year Treasury yield at its highest level since June 2002, the 10-year parked at a 2007 high and two straight losing days on the S&P 500. By 8:30 a.m. ET the tone had flipped. The August personal consumption expenditures report showed core PCE, the measure that strips out food and energy, rising 0.2% on the month for a 3.0% annual rate. The forecast was 0.3% and 3.3%. July's annual core reading had been 3.3%, so the gauge the Federal Reserve watches most closely dropped 30 basis points in a single month.

Headline PCE rose 0.3% month over month, matching expectations, but the annual rate landed at 3.4% against a 3.7% forecast. Energy goods and services jumped 2.3% on the month, which tells you where the pressure still lives. Strip out the fuel line and the underlying price trend looks cooler than anything the bond market had been pricing for most of September.

That gap between the headline and the core is the whole story of today's tape. The monthly numbers are still running too hot for a central bank targeting 2%. A 3.0% core rate is a full percentage point above target, and a 0.2% monthly core print annualizes to 2.4%, better but not finished. The revisions did a lot of the lifting, since part of the drop in the annual rate came from how prior months were restated rather than from a sharp break in current pricing.

Markets did not care about the fine print at 8:31 a.m. They cared that the worst-case scenario, a hot core number forcing an October hike and pushing the 10-year through 5.3%, came off the table. Nasdaq-100 futures, which had been trading 0.17% lower at 6:00 a.m. ET at 30,562.25, turned green inside minutes. S&P 500 futures, down 0.07% at 7,726.75 before dawn, followed.

Consumer spending also came in strong. Outlays in August rose at the fastest pace in more than a year, after economists had penciled in a 0.9% monthly gain. Personal income had been forecast at 0.5%. The saving rate, even after upward revisions, sat at its lowest level since late 2022. That combination points to households spending more than they earn, leaning on credit and stock-market gains to keep the checkout lines moving.

The session thesis writes itself from here. Today is a relief rally built on a single softer inflation print, arriving after a quarter in which the 10-year yield climbed 82 basis points, the largest quarterly jump in four years. Relief is real. Whether it becomes a trend depends on oil, on Friday's September payrolls report, and on what Micron says after the bell.

Index Scoreboard: Nasdaq Leads, Dow Lags, Small Caps Flip Green

At 10:23 a.m. ET the S&P 500 traded at 7,713.97, up 43.13 points or 0.56% from Tuesday's close of 7,670.84. The Nasdaq Composite led at 27,054.02, up 256.48 points or 0.96%, reclaiming the 27,000 handle it lost last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged at 51,422.05, up 72.13 points or 0.14% from 51,349.92. The Russell 2000 sat at 2,816.33, up 8.41 points or 0.30%.

The opening bell set the pattern. Two minutes after 9:30 a.m. the S&P 500 was up 0.29%, the Dow 0.13% and the Nasdaq 0.34%, while the Russell 2000 was down 0.35%. Small caps are the most rate-sensitive corner of the market because they carry more floating-rate debt and depend more on bank loans. They opened lower anyway, a sign that traders did not fully trust the bond rally at first. By 10:00 a.m. the Russell had flipped positive, and by 10:23 a.m. it had gained more than half a percentage point from its early level.

The Nasdaq's pace accelerated through the first hour. It was up 0.52% at 26,936.10 a few minutes into the session, 0.96% by 10:23 a.m., and it touched 1.06% at 27,081.14 in between. The S&P 500 tracked the same curve, reaching 7,719.92, up 0.64%, before settling back to 7,713.97.

The Dow's underperformance comes down to composition. Northrop Grumman is not in the Dow, but defense and industrial weakness, a flat Nike at $35.83 and a drag from financials after Tuesday's bank selloff kept the blue-chip average from matching the tech-heavy benchmarks. Boeing, a Dow component, helped cushion that on a Navy contract win covered below.

Context matters for how this session closes the books. Through Tuesday the Dow had lost 3.5% in September and was on track to snap a five-month winning streak. Today's 0.14% gain barely dents that. The S&P 500 had been down 0.2% for the month before today, so a 0.56% gain flips it back to a small monthly advance. The Nasdaq entered the day up more than 1% for September and now sits closer to 2%.

For the quarter, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were each up 2% through Tuesday. At current levels both are on pace to finish the third quarter with gains near 2.5% to 3%, despite the worst bond-market quarter in four years.

The CBOE Volatility Index fell 2.24% to 15.68. A VIX under 16 during a month in which the 30-year yield blew through 5.6% tells you equity traders have been hedging rates through bonds and oil, not through index puts.

The 10-Year Backs Off Its 2007 High, but the Long End Stays Heavy

The Treasury market delivered the biggest reaction of the morning. The 2-year note yield, the part of the curve most tied to Fed expectations, dropped more than 6 basis points to 4.827% after the PCE release. The 10-year fell almost 4 basis points to 5.217%, pulling back from Tuesday's session high of 5.29%, its highest level since 2007. The 30-year bond slipped almost 2 basis points to 5.578%, after Tuesday's spike to 5.62%, a level last seen in 2002.

Those moves reshape the curve in a specific way. The front end rallied hardest because the data directly lowered the odds of an October hike. The long end moved least because the forces pushing 30-year yields higher have little to do with a single monthly inflation print. Oil above $90 a barrel, heavy Treasury issuance and a term premium rebuilding after years of compression all keep pressure on long bonds.

By 10:23 a.m. the 10-year had drifted back to 5.25%, down only 0.01 points on the day according to the index quote. That partial give-back is the tell to watch into the close. When the 10-year briefly traded at 5.217%, stocks got their first real breathing room in two weeks. If it grinds back toward 5.29%, the rally loses its fuel.

September has been brutal for bonds. The 10-year yield climbed 46 basis points during the month through Tuesday. The curve, as of Tuesday's close, showed a 3-month bill at 4.17%, the 1-year at 4.47%, the 2-year at 4.89%, the 5-year at 5.06%, the 10-year at 5.25% and the 30-year at 5.57%. That is a steepening curve, with the 10-year trading 108 basis points above the 3-month bill.

Steepening driven by the long end is the uncomfortable version for equities. It means investors demand more compensation to hold duration, which raises the discount rate applied to long-dated corporate cash flows. Growth stocks, whose value sits furthest in the future, feel that most. That is why the Nasdaq led today's rebound so decisively once yields eased.

The Federal Reserve's daily H.15 release will record today's official constant-maturity yields after the close. For equities, the line in the sand is simple. A 10-year below 5.2% has historically supported multiple expansion in this cycle. A 10-year above 5.3% has coincided with the three worst sessions of September.

Mortgage markets show what those yields do in the real economy. The average 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rate rose to 7.30% last week from 7.12%, a sixth straight weekly increase and the highest reading since November 2023. That is the bond market's pain transmitted straight into household budgets.

Fed Pricing: October Hike Odds Collapse From 80% to 37%

Rate futures tell the story of how quickly the market's fear unwound. At one point in September, traders priced more than an 80% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Fed's October meeting. As of Tuesday morning that probability still sat above 70%. After Tuesday's comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who said there was no urgency to tighten in October, it slid to a coin flip. After today's PCE print it fell to 37%, and the next fully priced increase moved out to December.

That is a 43-percentage-point swing in the hike odds inside a few weeks, and the second half of it happened in less than 24 hours. For equity traders, the difference between a 70% chance and a 37% chance of another hike is the difference between defending positions and adding to them.

The Fed already raised rates in September. The committee has been fighting a second wave of inflation driven by energy costs tied to the war with Iran, now in its seventh month. Fed Governor Michael Barr said last week that more hikes are needed to bring down sticky inflation. Williams struck a softer tone, saying another increase late this year could be appropriate but that the Fed may need more data first. Governor Lisa Cook and regional presidents Thomas Barkin, Austan Goolsbee and Neel Kashkari are all scheduled to speak today, and any hawkish pushback against the PCE-driven repricing would hit the 2-year first.

Swaps markets had priced close to a full percentage point of Fed hikes over the next 12 months as of Tuesday. Even after today's repricing, the market still expects rates to go higher, not lower. The debate is timing, not direction.

The dollar reflects that. The dollar index traded near 101.40 on Tuesday after starting September below 99, and the euro fell to $1.1312 on Tuesday, its lowest since May 2025, before trading at $1.1339 overnight. The greenback gained close to 2.5% against the euro in September and is set for a third straight quarterly gain. The dollar eased slightly after the PCE release but remains on track for its best month since June.

The October decision now hinges on data still to come. September CPI and PPI reports, due before the meeting, carry more weight than they did a week ago. So does gasoline. A core PCE of 3.0% gives the Fed room to wait. A core CPI rebound would take that room away just as quickly. Traders who spent September positioned for three hikes in a row now have to price a Fed that could skip October entirely.

ADP Adds 90,000 Jobs and Takes the Recession Trade Off the Table

Fifteen minutes before the PCE release, ADP's September employment report showed private employers added 90,000 jobs. The consensus was 68,000. August was revised down to 36,000 from 38,000, so September marked a rebound after a three-month slowdown.

The gains were broad. Service providers added 59,000 positions and goods producers 31,000. Education and health services led with 55,000 new hires. Leisure and hospitality added 22,000, manufacturing 17,000 and construction 15,000. Financial activities lost 16,000 jobs, professional and business services shed 11,000, and natural resources and mining cut 1,000.

Geographically, the Northeast added 56,000 jobs, the bulk of the national total. By company size, firms with 50 to 499 workers accounted for 54,000 hires, a sign that mid-sized businesses, not just large corporations, are still expanding headcount despite borrowing costs above 7% for many of them.

Pay held firm. Base pay for workers who stayed in their jobs rose 3.2% from a year ago. Gross pay accelerated 4.7%. Against a 3.4% headline PCE rate, stayers are barely keeping pace with inflation on base pay, while total compensation including bonuses and overtime runs ahead.

For the stock market, the jobs data and the inflation data landed in the sweet spot at the same time. A strong labor market with cooling core inflation is exactly the mix that lets the Fed pause without signaling recession. Had ADP missed badly while PCE cooled, the bond rally would have come with a growth scare. Had ADP blown out while PCE ran hot, the October hike odds would have jumped back above 70%.

The one note of caution sits in the job losses in finance and professional services, two white-collar categories that have been shedding positions as higher rates slow deal-making and companies push automation. Those losses line up with Tuesday's selloff in bank stocks, when JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America all fell and the Financial Select Sector SPDR closed lower.

Friday brings the official September nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ADP and BLS numbers often diverge, sometimes sharply. A payrolls figure north of 150,000 with rising wages would test today's rally. A figure in line with ADP's 90,000 would reinforce the pause narrative. The equity market has three sessions to price that risk, and after a 43-point collapse in hike odds, it has little cushion left if the Friday print runs hot.

The Consumer Squeeze Behind the Spending Numbers

The August spending figures look strong on the surface. Underneath, the household picture is stretched. Tuesday's consumer confidence reading fell to a 12-year low in September, and today's PCE data showed the saving rate at its lowest level since late 2022 even after revisions lifted it.

Those two facts fit together. Prices are rising faster than incomes for a large share of households. Affluent consumers with stock portfolios have been cushioned by capital gains that never show up in the PCE income numbers, while households living paycheck to paycheck have been drawing down savings and leaning on credit. The spending data captures both groups in one aggregate, which is why a record pace of outlays can coexist with a 12-year low in sentiment.

Housing is where the pressure shows up fastest. Mortgage applications fell 6% last week on the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. Refinance applications dropped 9% for the week and were 56% lower than a year ago, since almost no borrower can save money by refinancing at 7.30%. The refinance share of activity slipped to 38.3% from 39.3%. Purchase applications fell 4% for the week and were 14% lower year over year.

Home prices keep rising anyway. National price growth accelerated even as rates climbed, so buyers face higher prices and higher financing costs at the same time. That squeeze keeps inventory locked up, since existing owners with sub-4% mortgages have no incentive to sell.

Tourism is another soft spot. A decline in international visitors has been hitting the U.S. economy through the summer, and a strong dollar that gained 2.5% against the euro in September only makes American travel more expensive for foreign visitors.

For equity positioning, the consumer split explains why discretionary stocks have been so uneven. Nike trades at $35.83, flat on the day but down 51.7% over the past 52 weeks and sitting just above its 52-week low of $35.22. Etsy is up 4.97% to $72.72 today, but only because it was oversold. Mattel fell to $12.86, a hair above its $12.73 low.

The PCE report did nothing to fix that picture. What it did was lower the probability that the Fed makes it worse in October. For stocks tied to lower-income consumers, that is a reprieve, not a recovery. For stocks tied to affluent consumers and capital spending, the story is AI, not the household balance sheet, and that is where the day's buying went.

Oil at $90.75 and the Strait of Hormuz: The Inflation Input PCE Can't Fix

Crude oil is the one market that refused to join the relief rally. November West Texas Intermediate futures traded at $90.75 a barrel at 10:23 a.m. ET, up $1.37 or 1.53%. Earlier in the morning WTI had touched $91.19, up 2.03%. Brent crude traded at $103.30 in early European hours, up 0.66%, leaving a spread of more than $12 between the two benchmarks.

Energy goods and services prices rose 2.3% in August according to the PCE data. That single line is why headline inflation sits at 3.4% while core sits at 3.0%. As long as oil holds above $90, the headline number stays elevated, and the Fed's patience has a limit.

The geopolitical backdrop deteriorated overnight. Unknown projectiles struck three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, including a crude oil tanker and an LNG tanker, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre. A spokesperson for Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said the war would end only when Washington admits defeat and withdraws. Iran received a U.S. response to its proposed seven-day ceasefire plan on Wednesday.

President Trump denied reports that he was willing to offer Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds in exchange for concrete nuclear steps. Those reports had sent crude well off its highs on Monday. Today's denial pushed prices back up. Qatar said it hopes shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington can deliver a breakthrough, but markets are not pricing one.

Supply is recovering at the margin. Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings on Tuesday from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting its East-West Pipeline. Estimates put Gulf oil exports back at 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, in line with their 2025 average, after exports doubled in September. A Strategic Petroleum Reserve release pushed WTI briefly below $90 on Tuesday.

Refined products remain the tighter market. Russia extended its diesel export ban, the White House has urged the European Union to draw down emergency diesel inventories, and Trump has floated a U.S. diesel export ban as fuel prices become a midterm issue ahead of November. Freight costs stay elevated.

Gold reflects the same tension. Gold futures traded at $4,212.30 an ounce, up $32.60 or 0.78%, after touching $4,224.40 earlier. Silver slipped 0.16% to $61.06. Bitcoin traded at $83,752, flat on the day. Gold's gain alongside falling yields and a softer dollar fits the inflation-hedge bid that has held the metal above $4,200 all month.

For the equity rally, oil is the unresolved variable. A cooler core PCE buys time. A move in WTI back toward $95 would erase it.

Megacap Tech Carries the Tape: Nvidia, Apple, Intel and SpaceX

The Nasdaq's 0.96% gain came from the largest companies on the exchange, and volume confirms where the money went. Intel led the most-active list with 27.3 million shares traded by 10:23 a.m., rising $2.91 or 2.51% to $118.84. Intel's market value stands at $628.2 billion and the stock is up 222.6% over 52 weeks, one of the most dramatic turnarounds in large-cap tech. It surged 12% earlier this month as CPU stocks rallied, and today it trades within reach of its 52-week high of $142.35.

Nvidia added $3.89 or 1.71% to $231.10 on 25.2 million shares. At a $5.58 trillion market cap, a 1.71% move adds more than $90 billion in value. Nvidia now trades $5.44 below its 52-week high of $236.54 at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 28.46, a lower multiple than Apple's despite faster growth.

Apple rebounded hard. The stock rose $8.52 or 2.59% to $337.92, lifting its market value to $4.932 trillion. Apple slid in late trading on Tuesday as investors trimmed large-cap tech exposure, and today's move reversed that decline and then some. The 52-week high sits at $345.34. Apple trades at 39.13 times trailing earnings after its fiscal third quarter delivered $109.4 billion in revenue, up 16%, and diluted EPS of $2.02 against expectations of $1.89. The next catalyst is fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on October 29. The stock also carries a $5.7 billion patent verdict from last week and reports that new CEO John Ternus is weighing layoffs as memory-chip costs rise.

SpaceX, trading as SPCX since its June 12 debut at $135, gained $2.63 or 1.76% to $151.87 on 19.2 million shares. The company's value sits at $2.002 trillion. It remains down sharply from its record of $225.64 on June 16. SpaceX has placed a launch-business veteran in charge of building out its AI computing infrastructure, with a mandate to bring up the next six phases of compute capacity by year-end.

Tesla bucked the trend, falling $3.19 or 0.90% to $349.65 on 10.9 million shares. Tesla trades at 344.69 times trailing earnings with a $1.381 trillion market cap and sits 23.2% below where it traded a year ago.

The pattern is clear. The rate-relief trade went straight into AI infrastructure and semiconductor names with the strongest earnings momentum. Super Micro Computer was the exception, slipping 0.55% to $40.79 as investors rotated toward rival HPE. The Micron report after the bell determines whether this morning's tech bid extends into Thursday or reverses.

HPE Jumps 4.92% on a $1.2 Billion AI Rack Order and a Raised Networking Outlook

Hewlett Packard Enterprise delivered the cleanest single-stock catalyst of the day. Shares rose $3.02 or 4.92% to $64.51 by 10:23 a.m. ET on 9.98 million shares, half the stock's three-month average daily volume in the first hour. The 52-week high sits at $65.65, just $1.14 away. The stock has gained 146.7% over the past year and carries an $85.6 billion market value.

At its Networking Investor Day in Sunnyvale, HPE disclosed a $1.2 billion order from cloud provider Vultr for AMD Helios AI racks built by HPE. It is the first major order for the platform. Each rack integrates 72 AMD Instinct MI455X GPUs with AMD EPYC Venice CPUs, Pensando Vulcano AI networking cards and HPE's purpose-built scale-up switching. The systems will be deployed across Vultr's U.S. data centers.

The order matters beyond its dollar value. Helios is AMD's rack-scale answer to Nvidia's integrated data-center architecture, and HPE is the systems integrator. If HPE can attach its switches and networking software to AI rack deals, expansions and refresh cycles tend to follow the same design, turning one project into recurring revenue.

HPE also raised its targets. Fiscal 2027 networking segment revenue growth now sits in a high-teens to low-20s percent range, up from 14% to 17% previously. The long-term networking compound annual growth rate from fiscal 2026 through fiscal 2029 is now high teens, up from a prior mid-single-digit target. Data Center Networking revenue is projected to grow at a compound rate in the low-to-high 50s percent through fiscal 2029.

The Juniper Networks integration is delivering more than promised. HPE lifted its cost synergy target to $800 million in annual run-rate savings by the end of fiscal 2028, a 33% increase from the original floor of $600 million.

Premarket, HPE was up almost 6% before trimming gains at the open. It traded at $63.88 before the bell, then extended to $64.51 once the broader market turned higher. The stock ran into supply near $65, and the 52-week high is the next test.

Competitors are moving in different directions. Super Micro fell 0.55% to $40.79 and Dell's recent AI-driven rally has also cooled. HPE got paid today because it brought new order flow and raised guidance at the same time. That is the bar for AI hardware names right now, and it is the same bar Micron faces at 4:00 p.m.

Jabil Beats, Raises and Still Gets Sold 5.70%

Jabil offered the day's reminder that AI hardware beats are priced in until proven otherwise. The contract manufacturer reported fiscal fourth-quarter results before the bell that topped expectations on every major line, then fell 5.70% after the open.

Net revenue for the quarter ended August 31 came in at $10.62 billion, up 29% from a year earlier, against forecasts near $9.7 billion. Core earnings per share hit $4.40 against expectations of $4.06 to $4.08, and core EPS grew 34% year over year. GAAP diluted EPS was $3.76. GAAP operating income reached $602 million and core operating income $675 million.

For the full fiscal year 2026, revenue rose 21% to $36.0 billion. Core operating margin expanded 40 basis points and adjusted free cash flow topped $1.5 billion. The Intelligent Infrastructure segment, which houses the AI data-center business, did most of the heavy lifting alongside Regulated Industries.

The guidance was stronger still. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Jabil expects revenue of $10.6 billion to $11.4 billion, with a $11.0 billion midpoint, and core EPS of $3.80 to $4.20. For full fiscal 2027, the company expects revenue of $44.5 billion, up 24%, core operating margin expansion of 30 basis points to 6.1%, core diluted EPS growth of 34% to $17.55 and adjusted free cash flow of $1.6 billion. The revenue and EPS guides each sit 3% above consensus.

So why did the stock drop? Positioning. Jabil traded at $318.84 in premarket after a long run into the report. Insider activity over the past 12 months shows $79.8 million in sales against $0.1 million in purchases. When a stock prices in a beat and a raise, delivering a beat and a raise triggers profit-taking.

The drop also says something about the AI supply chain. A 6.1% core operating margin is thin compared with chip designers or memory makers. Investors are rewarding companies that capture pricing power in AI, like memory suppliers running 86% gross margins, and treating assemblers as volume plays whose multiples have already expanded.

Jabil's report still confirms the demand picture. Revenue growth of 29% in a single quarter from a $36 billion company shows AI infrastructure spending is not slowing. The market's response shows how little room for error remains when expectations run this high. Micron reports into that same setup tonight.

Boeing Wins the $20 Billion F/A-XX and Northrop Grumman Gets Smoked

The defense sector split in two after the Pentagon announced late Tuesday that Boeing won the U.S. Navy's F/A-XX sixth-generation carrier fighter contract. The award covers the full-scale development phase and is valued at more than $20 billion, including multiple test aircraft for ground, airworthiness, systems and weapons integration testing.

Northrop Grumman, the losing bidder, fell $21.45 or 4.25% to $483.45 by 10:23 a.m. The stock touched a 52-week low of $479.02 and is down 16.7% over the past year, with a market value of $68.7 billion. Northrop dropped 3.66% in premarket and extended the losses after the open. Northrop had hoped the program would restore its role as a fighter prime contractor, and it can still protest the decision.

Boeing climbed 3.1% in premarket and led Dow gainers through the open. The contract gives Boeing both of the Pentagon's sixth-generation crewed fighter programs, following its March 2025 selection to build the Air Force's F-47. Lockheed Martin exited the F/A-XX competition earlier after the Navy determined its design did not meet requirements, leaving Northrop and Boeing as the finalists.

The long-term value dwarfs the initial $20 billion. The F/A-XX will replace the Navy's fleet of F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, which begin leaving the fleet in the 2030s, and operate alongside the F-35C. Full production over the program's life could run into hundreds of billions of dollars, with international customers potentially adding orders. On the same day, the Navy awarded Boeing a $16.7 million contract to plan the shutdown of the F/A-18E/F and EA-18G Growler production lines.

Funding has been building for months. Congress provided $972 million in F/A-XX research and development money in the fiscal 2026 defense appropriations bill, earmarked for a single engineering and manufacturing development contract. Boeing is building a secure manufacturing facility in St. Louis to produce the aircraft.

The win lands at a useful moment for Boeing. The stock fell almost 7% on Monday after the Federal Aviation Administration said it would not certify the 737 Max 10 until it assesses a new software glitch. Today's gain recovers a meaningful slice of that loss and gives the defense unit a second anchor program.

Defense spending more broadly remains active. The Army awarded up to $7 billion in counter-drone contracts to 10 companies this week. Space names ripped alongside, with Rocket Lab up 6.40% to $74.16, Firefly Aerospace up 7.63% to $24.60, AST SpaceMobile up 5.68% to $62.77 and Intuitive Machines up 4.71% to $15.23.

The Movers Board: Moderna Rolls Over, Cboe Rips, Quantum and Space Snap Higher

Moderna posted the day's largest large-cap loss. Shares fell $13.35 or 6.56% to $190.12 by 10:23 a.m. on 8.12 million shares, after trading as low as $187.24, down 7.97%, earlier in the session. The stock closed Tuesday at $203.46. Moderna was hit with a downgrade to Sell with a price target raised to $80 from $60, a level that still implies 60% downside from Tuesday's close. The call argued that a market cap near $80 billion puts Moderna level with far more profitable peers despite materially lower expected revenue and earnings.

Moderna has gained 223% since August 19, when it reported positive Phase 3 results for its personalized cancer vaccine intismeran autogene in combination with Keytruda in more than 1,100 melanoma patients. The stock ran from $62 on August 18 to an intraday high of $208 on September 25 and is up 637% over 52 weeks. A Delaware federal court on September 28 also denied Moderna's motion to dismiss a patent infringement case, adding legal overhang.

Cboe Global Markets rose 4.38% after it and S&P Dow Jones Indices extended their exclusive licensing agreement for 25 years through 2051. The deal secures Cboe's exclusive right to list S&P 500 Index options, a franchise that traded 970.6 million contracts in 2025, up 25%. Cboe said the 2027 royalty reset will have a minimal impact on net revenue growth.

Synopsys gained 3.42% on a strategic agreement with Amazon to accelerate custom silicon development. Mattel fell 3.37% at the open and traded down 2.72% at $12.86 after CEO Ynon Kreiz said he will step down October 2, with Roger Lynch taking over as chairman and assuming the CEO role by November 2. MongoDB bounced $20.12 or 5.97% to $357.31 after collapsing 21% on Tuesday when its CEO resigned abruptly to join Meta.

Quantum computing snapped higher. IonQ jumped 7.56% to $47.23 on 8.24 million shares, and Rigetti Computing rose 4.90% to $16.51. Semiconductor test supplier FormFactor led all gainers, up $10.93 or 8.02% to $147.18, with Rogers Corporation up 7.90% to $149.08. MP Materials added 5.66% to $48.00. Snap rose 6.27% to $5.68. Tanker operator TORM climbed 7.08% to $38.71, a new 52-week high, on the Hormuz strikes.

On the downside, Trulieve Cannabis fell 15.03% to $10.54. Cerebras Systems dropped 6.94% to $181.41, and Cal-Maine Foods lost 6.26% to $64.26. Before the open, Formula One Group jumped 8.51%, Alliant Energy gained 7.58% on data-center power demand, and Concentrix sank 9.24% after missing third-quarter forecasts.

Micron After the Bell: The $50 Billion Quarter That Decides Thursday

Everything this morning's rally built rests on one report. Micron Technology reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close, with the earnings call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET. The memory maker has become the single most important read on AI infrastructure spending outside of Nvidia.

Micron guided the quarter to $50 billion in revenue, plus or minus $1 billion, adjusted EPS of $31, plus or minus $1, and an adjusted gross margin near 86%. The Street sits slightly above that. Consensus estimates cluster between $50.8 billion and $51.2 billion in revenue and between $31.52 and $31.56 in adjusted EPS, with 33 analysts spanning an EPS range of $28.04 to $37.44 and a revenue range of $46.91 billion to $59.80 billion. That dispersion is enormous for a company this size and tells you how uncertain the memory cycle has become.

The scale is hard to overstate. Micron's fiscal third quarter delivered $41.46 billion in revenue, GAAP diluted EPS of $24.67, non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 and a GAAP gross margin of 84.6%. A $50 billion quarter would exceed Micron's entire fiscal 2025 revenue of $37.1 billion. A year ago, fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted EPS was $3.03, so the expected figure represents a tenfold increase.

Three items will move the stock more than the headline beat. First, guidance for fiscal first-quarter 2027, where estimates sit near $56.64 billion in revenue and $35.07 in EPS. Anything short of that reads as a deceleration. Second, the timing of HBM4 volume production and its revenue contribution. Third, capital spending. Micron guided fourth-quarter capex to $10 billion, bringing fiscal 2026 to $27 billion, and said every quarter of fiscal 2027 would run above fourth-quarter levels. Take-or-pay contracts already account for 40% of revenue, with the company targeting 50% over time.

Consensus puts fiscal 2027 EPS near $158, up 117% from a projected $72.99 in fiscal 2026. Micron has beaten EPS estimates in each of its last four quarters, with an average surprise of 21%.

Memory is the one AI category where pricing power is visible in the numbers. Rising memory costs are forcing Apple to weigh layoffs. Jabil's 6.1% margin sits at the opposite end. A clean beat with strong guidance would extend the Nasdaq's rally into October. A guide that merely meets the $56.64 billion bar risks the same sell-the-news reaction that hit Jabil this morning.

Session Verdict: Bullish With a Short Leash

The session so far earns a bullish verdict, and the leash is short. The August PCE report handed the market the one thing it needed after a September in which the 10-year yield rose 46 basis points and the 30-year hit a 2002 high. Core PCE at 3.0% against a 3.3% forecast cut the probability of an October hike from above 70% to 37%, dropped the 2-year yield more than 6 basis points to 4.827%, and gave the Nasdaq room to rip 0.96% to 27,054.02.

Breadth improved as the hour went on. The Russell 2000 opened down 0.35% and turned to a 0.30% gain at 2,816.33. The VIX fell to 15.68. Leadership came from AI infrastructure, with Intel up 2.51%, Nvidia up 1.71%, Apple up 2.59% and HPE up 4.92%, while the Dow's 0.14% gain showed how little the rally reached into industrials, consumer names and financials.

Three forces cap how far this runs. Oil at $90.75 is still pushing headline inflation, and energy costs rose 2.3% in August. The 10-year drifted back to 5.25% after touching 5.217%, a sign that bond buyers are not fully convinced. And Friday's September payrolls report can reverse the Fed repricing as fast as today's print created it.

For traders, the levels are straightforward. The S&P 500 needs to hold above 7,700 into the close to lock in a positive September and a quarterly gain near 2.5% to 3%. The Nasdaq needs to hold 27,000. A 10-year yield back above 5.29% would turn today's relief into a one-day bounce.

Micron at 4:00 p.m. ET is the deciding event. A beat on the $50 billion guide with fiscal first-quarter 2027 guidance above $56.64 billion would extend AI leadership and carry the Nasdaq into October on firm footing. A soft guide, with Jabil's 5.70% sell-the-news reaction already on the tape this morning, would expose how much of today's gain rests on megacap tech alone.

The market closes the third quarter with the S&P 500 near 7,714, the Dow down 3.5% for September and the 10-year yield 82 basis points higher than where it started the quarter. Today's relief is real and it is earned by the data, but it is a pause in the rate shock, not the end of it, and the bulls hold the tape only as long as oil stays below $95 and yields stay under 5.3%.

That's TradingNEWS