Stock Market Today: Alphabet Soars 13%, NVDA Stock Slumps as Nasdaq 23,365 and Gold Breaks $4,200

Stock Market Overview: Indices Rally But November Ends With Diverging Momentum

The final trading sessions of November delivered a mixed close for U.S. equities as the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) finished at 23,365.69 (+0.65%), the S&P 500 (^GSPC) advanced to 6,849.09 (+0.54%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) settled at 47,716.42 (+0.61%). The Russell 2000 (RUT) also posted a 5.5% weekly gain, its best since late 2024, signaling renewed small-cap participation after months of underperformance. Despite the week’s rally, the Nasdaq ended its seven-month winning streak with a 1.5% monthly decline, dragged down by profit-taking in AI-related megacaps. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, ending a six-month uptrend, while the Dow remained roughly flat for the month, supported by defensive sectors like healthcare and industrials. The market’s resilience through the CME futures outage and a muted holiday week underscored investor conviction that the Federal Reserve’s next move will be a rate cut in December, now priced at an 87% probability according to CME FedWatch data.

The shortened Black Friday session revealed a striking dichotomy: while retail and consumer discretionary stocks rallied on robust online spending, high-multiple tech equities faced valuation compression. Trading volumes were thin, but sentiment was notably more constructive than earlier in the month. The five-day streak of gains leading into the holiday period marked the best Thanksgiving week performance since 2008, with the S&P 500 up 3.7% and the Dow up 3.2% for the week. Historically, when the S&P 500 rises more than 2% during Thanksgiving week, December ends higher over 80% of the time—a seasonal pattern investors are now watching closely as 2025 winds down.

AI Rotation: Alphabet Dominates While Nvidia and Palantir Lose Leadership

November underscored a power shift within the AI trade. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) outperformed every other “Magnificent 7” stock, rising 13% for the month thanks to enthusiasm over its Gemini 3 AI model and proprietary TPU chips that increasingly challenge Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominance in machine learning infrastructure. Alphabet’s dual-class shares (GOOG, GOOGL) benefited from strong institutional inflows as investors rotated toward more diversified AI exposure rather than pure hardware plays. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) also ended the month positive, supported by resilient device demand and signs of stabilizing iPhone sales in Asia.

In stark contrast, Nvidia fell roughly 12%, its worst month since early 2024, amid growing concerns about saturation in AI GPU sales and tighter export restrictions to China. Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) was hit even harder, tumbling 16%, its sharpest drop since August 2023. Despite posting a second consecutive $1 billion revenue quarter, investors balked at its 233× forward P/E, dwarfing Nvidia’s 38× and Alphabet’s 30× valuations. Hedge fund data revealed that Michael Burry’s short position against both Nvidia and Palantir amplified selling pressure. Palantir CEO Alex Karp, in a rare public counterattack, accused short-sellers of “market manipulation,” asserting that “those who didn’t invest are crying while we deliver venture returns to everyday Americans.” The defense did little to restore confidence as analysts at Jefferies, RBC, and Deutsche Bank labeled the valuation “extreme.”

The AI-driven pullback also extended to Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), which fell about 5% each, while Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) declined amid weaker EV demand and price compression. This rotation highlights a critical inflection point in market leadership: the AI trade is no longer uniform. Capital is moving toward firms with diversified revenue sources and real earnings leverage rather than speculative growth multiples.

Consumer and Retail Stocks Lift Market Sentiment

Amid the tech rotation, the consumer discretionary sector emerged as a bright spot. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) rose 1.3%, Target (NYSE:TGT) climbed 1.3%, and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) gained 1% during Black Friday trading, benefiting from strong online engagement. Adobe Analytics reported $6 billion in U.S. online spending on Thanksgiving Day alone, forecasting a $253 billion digital shopping season—a 5.4% year-over-year increase. Chewy (NYSE:CHWY) gained 1.4%, while fashion brands Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) and Victoria’s Secret (NYSE:VSCO) surged over 3%, signaling renewed apparel demand at discount levels.

However, the broader retail picture remains uneven. Gap (NYSE:GPS) and Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) dipped, reflecting shifting consumer behavior and reduced in-store traffic. Department store names like Macy’s (NYSE:M) and Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS) saw mild gains ahead of their next earnings reports. Seasonal hiring trends were far weaker than usual: U.S. retailers are expected to add only 265,000–365,000 temporary workers, down from 442,000 in 2024, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This signals caution despite resilient consumer spending. Overall, retail provided the week’s crucial tailwind, helping offset tech sector weakness and preserving market breadth.

Gold Maintains Bullish Momentum on Fed Policy Bets

The precious metals market continues to outperform risk assets. Gold (GC=F) closed near $4,200 per ounce, logging its fourth straight monthly gain and the strongest performance since mid-2020. The rally stems from dovish rhetoric among Fed officials and swelling expectations for at least one 25-basis-point rate cut in December. The metal gained over 2% for the week as investors hedged against fiscal excess and a softening dollar. Michele Schneider of MarketGauge.com attributed gold’s strength to “tremendous deficit spending, central bank accumulation, and government liquidity policies running hot.”

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.018%, boosting non-yielding assets like gold and silver. Technical support lies near $4,160, with analysts targeting $4,300–$4,350 if the Fed confirms policy easing. The combination of easing real yields, global central bank buying, and record-high fiscal deficits provides a multi-quarter structural tailwind for bullion. Gold miners and ETFs such as SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) have mirrored this strength, signaling that investor appetite for hard assets remains robust amid declining real returns on cash.

Oil Faces Structural Headwinds as Supply Glut Persists

Energy markets ended November under pressure. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) settled around $59 per barrel, while Brent (BZ=F) hovered near $63, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline—the longest since 2023. Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs cut 2026 price targets sharply: JPMorgan projects Brent at $58 and WTI at $54, citing oversupply and waning OPEC+ cohesion; Goldman expects a delayed rebound to $80 Brent and $76 WTI by 2028, assuming demand recovery and shale maturity.

The November CME futures outage further disrupted crude trading as a cooling system fault at a Chicago data center halted live transactions across multiple markets, including oil and Treasuries. This temporary shock revealed fragility in commodities infrastructure just as traders brace for OPEC’s upcoming production meeting. With U.S. inventories rising and global consumption softening, especially from Europe and Asia, oil faces persistent downside risk. Energy equities underperformed, while refiners and LNG exporters provided limited shelter.

AI Infrastructure Fuels Power Demand Shock and Commodity Strain

The expansion of AI data centers has become an economic catalyst and risk factor. According to Bank of America, U.S. electricity demand is now growing five to ten times faster than during the previous decade, driven by energy-intensive server farms. Each facility requires massive quantities of aluminum for racks, cooling systems, and infrastructure. While demand supports aluminum prices, rising energy costs threaten domestic smelting. High electricity prices are forcing capacity reductions, constraining supply just as Big Tech’s hardware demands surge.

Indonesia, a major bauxite supplier, and China, the world’s top aluminum producer, are expanding processing capacity, intensifying global competition. This paradox—AI fueling demand while its own power consumption strains industrial ecosystems—exposes the fragility of the energy transition. Tech firms now face the dual challenge of securing affordable power and sustainable material sourcing. Analysts expect continued volatility in industrial metals as the AI boom collides with global energy constraints through 2026.

Economic Fractures Beneath Market Optimism

While the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow have each logged record highs in 2025, macroeconomic data signal growing imbalances. The commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquency rate climbed to 11.76% in October, the highest on record and nearly tenfold above 2023 levels. This spike reflects stress in commercial real estate and regional banking systems, where refinancing costs have surged post-pandemic. Meanwhile, corporate credit spreads remain narrow, indicating markets are not yet pricing in this risk.

The divergence between financial markets and the underlying economy echoes late-cycle conditions: robust asset inflation alongside deteriorating fundamentals. Despite Fed rate cuts on the horizon, consumer debt delinquency, muted job growth, and rising business bankruptcies hint at a fragile recovery. Wall Street remains fixated on liquidity rather than solvency—an imbalance that could resurface once the Fed’s easing cycle matures.

Software Sector Discount Emerges Amid Broader Tech Rotation

The software sector, represented by the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV), has underperformed the broader market—up just 4% year-to-date versus the S&P 500’s 16.5% advance. Analysts at Baird see this as a tactical opportunity. Axon Enterprise (NASDAQ:AXON), Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM), and Twilio (NYSE:TWLO) screen attractively at 9×, 18×, and 18× respective 2027 free-cash-flow multiples. Cybersecurity names like Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), Rubrik (NYSE:RBRK), and Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA) have compressed to valuation ranges that historically precede multi-quarter outperformance.

Enterprise adoption of AI remains nascent, suggesting these discounted software and SaaS providers may benefit from second-wave AI integration. ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW), Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM), and Monday.com (NASDAQ:MNDY) also appear positioned for margin recovery as macro conditions stabilize. The sector’s correction has reset multiples to sustainable levels, attracting long-term institutional capital back into digital infrastructure plays.

Earnings Calendar and 2026 Market Forecasts

The coming week’s key earnings include Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), expected to report $10.3 billion in revenue (+9% YoY). Focus will center on the company’s Agentforce 360 AI integration and Informatica acquisition, both pivotal to sustaining double-digit growth. In Europe, firms such as AJ Bell, Balfour Beatty, and Future PLC will issue full-year results, shaping sentiment across the FTSE indices.

Strategists from Deutsche Bank forecast the S&P 500 reaching 8,000 by 2026, citing robust earnings momentum and buyback activity. JPMorgan projects a base case of 7,500–7,800, while HSBC remains more conservative. FactSet data shows Q3 2025 S&P 500 earnings up 13.4%, but stock reactions have been asymmetric—companies missing estimates saw an average 5% drop, twice the five-year norm. The heightened sensitivity underscores that the market’s multiple expansion phase is likely ending, replaced by an earnings-driven regime.

Outlook and Investment Stance

The overall structure of the market points to a late-cycle environment—strong headline indices masking sector-specific cracks. The Fed’s December meeting will likely set the tone for 2026. If the anticipated rate cut materializes, liquidity should extend the bull cycle into Q1, led by consumer, infrastructure, and diversified technology names. However, economic cracks, CMBS delinquencies, and power-demand shocks imply volatility ahead.

Based on current data:

• Buy: Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Gold (XAU/USD)

• Hold: S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Dow Jones (DIA)

• Sell/Underweight: Nvidia (NVDA), Palantir (PLTR), overvalued AI small caps

With the S&P 500 at 6,849, the next technical zone lies at 7,100 short term and 7,500 medium term. Provided Fed easing coincides with sustained earnings growth, an 8,000 handle by late 2026 remains plausible. The path forward will depend on whether monetary policy relief fuels another expansion—or merely delays an overdue correction in one of history’s most liquidity-driven bull markets.

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