Stock Market Today - META Stock, CRM, PATH Lead Market as DJIA (Dow) 47,913 | SPX 6,858 | IXIC 23,480 Hold Firm Before Fed Cut

Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Waver as Wall Street Awaits Fed Rate Decision

The U.S. stock market traded flat on Thursday as investors positioned ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations of a 0.25% rate cut reaching 89% probability according to CME FedWatch. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hovered near 47,913 (+0.06%), while the S&P 500 (SPX) edged higher to 6,857 (+0.11%) and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) was up 0.12% at 23,482.91, staying just below record territory. Traders weighed falling jobless claims, mixed corporate earnings, and signs of sector rotation as Wall Street entered the final stretch of 2025.

Labor Market Cools, Fueling Confidence in Fed Cuts

The U.S. private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November, the weakest ADP reading since mid-2020, defying expectations for a 40,000-job increase. The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report confirmed that layoffs surpassed 1.17 million year-to-date, the highest since 2020. Yet paradoxically, weekly jobless claims dropped to 191,000, the lowest since September 2022, as states like California (-20,000) and Texas (-8,349) reported fewer filings. This contradictory data reinforced investor conviction that the Fed will begin easing policy, as labor softening aligns with the central bank’s path toward lower rates.

Treasury yields reflected the mixed backdrop, with the 10-year yield ticking up to 4.097% before retreating. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped to 96.27 (-0.12%), while gold (GC=F) rose slightly to $4,238.10, underscoring cautious optimism across risk assets.

Corporate Earnings Drive Diverging Moves Across Sectors

Earnings season continued to reshape sentiment across sectors. Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) gained +2.04% to $243.60 after delivering Q3 EPS of $3.25, beating expectations of $2.86. Revenue reached $10.27 billion (+8.6% YoY), and the company raised its full-year outlook to $41.45–$41.55 billion, citing surging adoption of its Agentforce AI platform, now exceeding $1.4 billion in annual recurring revenue — a 114% YoY increase.

Conversely, Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) plunged 9.54% to $239.73 after issuing weak Q4 guidance of $1.19–$1.20 billion, below the $1.23 billion consensus. The company did announce a $200 million multiyear AI partnership with Anthropic, but investors reacted to a lower operating margin forecast of 7%, down from 9% last quarter.

Retail stocks showed divergent performance: Dollar General (NYSE:DG) jumped 6.5% after raising full-year EPS guidance to $5.60–$5.80 versus prior $5.32–$5.72, while Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) advanced 4.5% on 23.1% YoY revenue growth to $1 billion and a 12.4% increase in same-store sales. In contrast, Kroger (NYSE:KR) fell 6.96% to $61.59, reporting flat revenue of $33.9 billion and warning of intensifying competition from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Walmart (NYSE:WMT).

Among software names, UiPath (NYSE:PATH) surged 17.56% to $17.47 following Q3 EPS of $0.16 on $411 million revenue, both ahead of estimates. The automation firm’s results underscored resilience in the enterprise AI segment, even as investors rotated away from megacaps.

Rotation Hits Mega-Cap Tech as AI Trade Shows Fatigue

After leading markets for most of 2025, the AI-driven tech rally began to show strain. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) fell 2.5% Wednesday before rebounding +0.23% Thursday to $478.85, following reports of lowered AI sales targets, which the company denied. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) rose 1.77% to $182.76, stabilizing after volatility tied to export control debates in Washington. Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) outperformed, climbing 4.19% to $666.41 after reports surfaced that CEO Mark Zuckerberg plans to cut the metaverse budget by up to 30%, signaling a strategic refocus toward AI-enabled devices.

Meanwhile, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) slipped roughly 1%, with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) losing 1.58% to $228.72. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), tracking these giants, rose marginally 0.30% to $67.20, indicating modest stabilization after sharp rotations earlier in the week.

Indices Hover Near Record Highs Amid Fed Transition Speculation

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) remains within 1% of its record high of 48,254.82, while the S&P 500 trades near 6,857, just 0.5% below its all-time closing level of 6,890.89. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) lingers about 2% beneath its October peak. Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as the market digests the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as Federal Reserve Chair, replacing Jerome Powell.

Bond markets, however, have expressed unease. Top U.S. debt investors warned the Treasury that Hassett’s dovish alignment with President Trump could fuel an overaggressive easing cycle. The 2-year yield sits at 3.527%, reflecting skepticism toward long-term inflation control. Traders are watching Friday’s PCE inflation report, expected to confirm subdued consumer spending and give the Fed further leeway to cut.

Energy and Commodities Surge as Natural Gas and Oil Rebound

Energy markets rallied sharply, with January natural gas futures hitting $5.046 per MMBtu, their highest since December 2022. Prices are up 50% this quarter and 36% YTD, driven by frigid weather across the U.S. Midwest and East Coast. Producers like Baytex Energy (NYSE:BTE), Comstock Resources (NYSE:CRK), and CNX Resources (NYSE:CNX) each gained over 20%, while the First Trust Natural Gas ETF (NASDAQ:FCG) advanced 7%, marking its strongest quarter since early 2024.

Crude oil (CL=F) traded near $59.16 (+0.36%), and Brent (BZ=F) held around $62.43 (+0.24%), supported by escalating U.S.–Venezuela tensions and renewed discussions over a Ukraine ceasefire. President Trump confirmed “reasonably good” diplomatic progress with Russia but hinted that U.S. military action against Venezuelan drug cartels remains imminent — factors that kept a mild geopolitical risk premium in crude.

Asian and Global Markets Signal Diverging Growth Paths

Asian equities delivered mixed performance. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (^N225) jumped 2.33% to 51,028.42, led by SoftBank Group (TYO:9984), which surged 8.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (^HSI) added 0.2% to 25,816.50, while South Korea’s Kospi (^KS11) slipped 0.7% amid weakness in chipmakers. Bond yields in Japan spiked to 1.941%, the highest since 2007, reinforcing speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise rates this month — a stark contrast to the U.S. and Europe’s easing bias.

In Europe, major indices including the DAX (GER40) and FTSE 100 (UKX) remained steady, as traders mirrored Wall Street’s wait-and-see approach.

Crypto and Alternative Assets Recover Modestly

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) traded at $92,932, up 0.37%, recovering from its steepest one-day drop since March. While volatility remains elevated, institutional holdings through Bitcoin ETFs continue to expand. Gold (XAU/USD) strengthened to $4,238, extending its correlation as a defensive hedge against slowing growth and dollar softness.

Market Outlook and Trading News Verdict

The stock market’s underlying strength remains anchored in cooling inflation, firm corporate earnings, and resilient consumer spending. However, sectoral rotation away from high-beta AI names toward defensive retail and energy signals the first meaningful recalibration since mid-year. The S&P 500’s 16% year-to-date gain, coupled with a 4.8% November rally, positions Wall Street within striking distance of new records if the Fed confirms a dovish pivot next week.

Trading News Verdict:

Momentum remains bullish but increasingly tactical. Selective exposure to outperformers like Salesforce (CRM) $243.60, Meta Platforms (META) $666.41, and UiPath (PATH) $17.47 continues to offer relative strength, while investors hedge through energy and consumer staples. The S&P 500 (SPX) trades near 6,858, holding a bullish bias above 6,800 with rotation risk emerging in mega-cap tech. The Nasdaq (IXIC) sits around 23,480, locked in a consolidation zone, while the Dow Jones (DJIA) at 47,913 shows momentum for a breakout above 48,000 on dips near 47,500.

Energy remains a standout — the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) benefits from surging natural gas prices at $5.04/MMBtu, driving producer stocks Baytex Energy (BTE) and Comstock Resources (CRK) up over 20% this quarter. The AI-focused Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) trades near $67.20, flashing caution signals as valuations stretch.

TradingNews.com maintains a STRONG BUY stance on energy, HOLD on S&P 500, and BUY-the-dip bias on Dow Industrials. The December outlook hinges on Fed’s December 10 decision and PCE inflation data, with market breadth narrowing but liquidity support intact. The balance of power now lies between easing-driven optimism and the risk of AI overexuberance — a test that will define Wall Street’s direction into 2026.

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