USD/JPY (158.28) Tests Its 200-Day Average as a Hawkish Fed Split Keeps the 275bp Carry Gap Intact

USD/JPY traded at 158.28 after the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday, up 0.21% on the day and 30 pips higher than its level just before the 18:00 GMT announcement. The Federal Open Market Committee held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10–2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of an immediate quarter-point hike. The pair climbed toward 158.50 as the dollar firmed through Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.

The yen weakened even though the Fed did nothing. Two dissents for a hike told the market that the committee’s next move, if there is one, is higher, not lower. The statement upgraded its description of economic activity from “solid” to “strong,” kept its warning that “inflation remains elevated,” and replaced its September language with a commitment to “accumulating more information” before deciding the appropriate stance. That combination is a hawkish hold, and hawkish holds widen the yield gap that drives USD/JPY.

The gap is large and stable. The Fed’s upper bound of 4.00% sits 275 basis points above the Bank of Japan’s 1.25% policy rate. After the decision, markets priced roughly 79 basis points of Fed hikes over the next year, and the US 2-year Treasury yield rose 2.7 basis points to 4.75%, touching 4.78%. Even if the BoJ hikes to 1.50% in December, as 83% of surveyed economists expect, the carry trade still pays a holder of dollars more than 2.5 percentage points a year to fund in yen.

The yen’s next catalyst arrives in less than 36 hours. The BoJ concludes its two-day meeting on Friday, October 30, with a decision around 03:00 GMT and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference at 06:30 GMT. A hold at 1.25% is widely expected. What matters is whether the quarterly Outlook Report and Ueda’s guidance confirm a December hike.

The ceiling is Tokyo’s. Japan’s Ministry of Finance bought 11.74 trillion yen between April 28 and May 27, 2026, and Japan and the US carried out a joint intervention in July. Any move toward 160.00 risks another round. The forecast through Friday is a range between 157.00 and 159.30, with the 200-day moving average at 158.54 as the pivot and 160.00 as the line the market will not test lightly.

A Three-Day Recovery From a 156.00 One-Month Low

The pair’s move on Wednesday extended a recovery that began late last week. USD/JPY fell to the vicinity of 156.00 on Friday, October 23, its lowest level since September 18, as the yen drew support from BoJ Governor Ueda’s hawkish comments that underlying inflation is nearing the 2% target, strengthening the case for an imminent hike. Haven demand also supported the yen as US equities sold off on October 22.

The rebound started on Monday. USD/JPY attracted fresh sellers early in the week but then turned higher, gaining for three straight days. It traded above 157.00 on Tuesday and held modest gains above 157.50 on Wednesday morning as traders positioned for the Fed and the BoJ. By the time of the Fed decision, the pair stood near 157.93.

The haven bid that lifted the yen last week faded quickly. As AI-related equities recovered on Tuesday, led by semiconductors after Broadcom’s $63 billion financing deal, the risk-off demand for yen reversed. USD/JPY recovered 68% of its slide from the October 14 high to the October 23 low before the Fed decision, a sign that the late-October yen rally was driven by temporary sentiment rather than a shift in rate expectations.

The October high frames the upside. USD/JPY touched 158.95 on October 14 after a hot US inflation reading, and traded near 158.50 around October 20 on reports that the BoJ was leaning against an October rate hike. Wednesday’s post-Fed level of 158.28 sits just 67 pips below that high.

The dollar’s broader strength supported the move. The dollar index rose to a two-week high of 102.39 before the decision after a three-day rally, and the 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.01%. The dollar firmed slightly after Warsh’s press conference, with his tone supporting dollar stability rather than weakness.

The cross-yen picture shows the yen’s weakness is broad. GBP/JPY traded around 209.70 earlier Wednesday, and EUR/JPY moved lower only as the euro itself fell to its 2026 low of 1.1113 against the dollar. The yen has not been gaining against other currencies; it has been losing ground against a dollar that is backed by the highest real yields in the developed world.

A 10–2 Vote With Cook and Hammack Dissenting for a Hike

The Fed’s decision was expected, but the vote was not. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, leaving it where it has been since September’s quarter-point increase, the first hike since 2023. Futures had priced just a 7% chance of a hike at the time of the decision. Two officials, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, preferred to raise the target range by a quarter point.

The dissents were historic. It was the first time a Fed governor and a regional bank president dissented together on the same side since October 1992, and it was Cook’s first dissent since she joined the board in 2022. Cook is also the governor President Donald Trump has tried to fire, which led some observers to describe her dissent as a possible protest vote. This was the second meeting under Warsh’s chairmanship, which began in May, to produce dissents.

The statement shifted in a hawkish direction. The description of economic activity was upgraded from “solid” to “strong.” The committee repeated that inflation remains elevated, that job gains have kept pace with workforce growth, that domestic spending has been resilient, and that productivity growth is strong and capital investment robust. The sentence saying the September action would support a more timely return of inflation to 2% was replaced with language stating that accumulating more information will help the committee determine the appropriate stance of policy.

That replacement is the key change for USD/JPY. It frames the October hold as an observational pause rather than the end of tightening. Combined with two dissents favoring higher rates and an upgraded growth assessment, the statement leaves December open and tilts the risk toward another hike.

The market reaction was measured. The S&P 500 rose 14 points, the 2-year yield climbed 2.7 basis points to 4.75%, and WTI crude rose $2.94 to $102.82. Treasury yields were broadly steady, with the 2-year rate trading around 4.76% later in the session. USD/JPY’s 30-pip gain was the largest move in the major currency pairs, reflecting the yen’s sensitivity to US rate expectations.

The political backdrop added scrutiny. The decision came six days before the US midterm elections, and some economists had warned that an unexplained hold would invite suspicion that politics drove policy. The two dissents and the hawkish statement undercut that suspicion, which helped the dollar.

Warsh: The “Monetary Medicine” Is Working, but There Is No Soft Target

Warsh’s press conference reinforced the hawkish hold. He said the overwhelming judgment of the committee was that the September hike, which removed a dose of accommodation, was starting to work, but that there were no firm conclusions. He said he was encouraged by the progress made in a short period, while acknowledging that the Fed had not yet achieved price stability.

He drew a hard line on the target. Warsh made clear there is no soft inflation target and that 2% PCE inflation remains the only objective. He stressed that relative price increases, such as the energy-driven jump in prices since the Iran war began, must not broaden into a wider inflation problem. He noted that longer-term inflation expectations still show that households and businesses trust the Fed’s commitment.

He described financial conditions as tighter but not tight. Warsh emphasized that monetary policy operates primarily through financial conditions without needing to throw sand into the gears of the economy. With the 10-year Treasury at 5.01%, financial conditions are already doing part of the Fed’s work, which is part of why the committee chose to wait.

He gave no timeline for rate cuts. Warsh’s tone was neither dovish nor hawkish on the surface, but it contained clear warnings: no rush to ease, inflation still too high, and December decided by data. That is a profile that keeps US yields sticky and supports the dollar against low-yielding currencies.

He addressed politics directly. Warsh said politics played no role in the decision, and that he did not hear a single utterance about politics in two days of meetings. That statement matters for the dollar because it protects the Fed’s credibility, which in turn supports demand for US assets.

He also announced a structural change. Warsh said the Fed will cut back on the number of meetings where members vote on rates, with a change to the FOMC schedule starting next fall. From 2028, the committee will move to six policy meetings and two meetings devoted to major economic issues, where it does not expect to make rate decisions or release statements. Fewer rate-setting meetings mean fewer scheduled opportunities to adjust policy, which could increase volatility around each remaining meeting.

The overall message for USD/JPY is that the Fed is not easing anytime soon. That keeps the 275-basis-point gap with the BoJ intact and leaves the dollar’s carry advantage untouched.

A 275bp Policy Gap and 79bp of Fed Hikes Priced for the Year Ahead

The rate differential is the foundation of USD/JPY’s level. The Fed’s upper bound of 4.00% against the BoJ’s 1.25% creates a 275-basis-point gap in overnight rates. That gap pays investors to borrow yen cheaply and invest in higher-yielding dollar assets, a carry trade that has kept the yen weak for most of the past three years.

The forward path widens the gap further. After Wednesday’s decision, markets priced about 79 basis points of Fed hikes over the next year, roughly three quarter-point increases. On the Japanese side, futures price most of one BoJ hike by December and a rate near 2.02% by September 2027. If both paths play out, the gap in a year’s time would be roughly 4.79% against 2.02%, or 277 basis points, almost exactly where it stands today.

That is the core of the yen’s problem. Even as the BoJ tightens at the fastest pace in decades, the Fed is tightening at a similar pace, so the gap does not narrow. The BoJ raised its rate to 1.00% in June and to 1.25% in September, its highest in 31 years, and the yen weakened after both hikes because a single increase barely touches the differential.

The short end of the US curve shows the pressure. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.75% after the decision, touching 4.78%. That yield is the one most directly linked to Fed expectations, and its rise shows the market pushing back against any hope of an early pause. A 2-year yield near 4.75% against a Japanese policy rate of 1.25% leaves a 350-basis-point gap at the two-year horizon.

Real yields add to the dollar’s edge. US CPI inflation stands at 3.7%, and the 10-year Treasury yields 5.01%, a real yield of roughly 1.3%. Japan’s September inflation came in at 2.1%, with the BoJ’s policy rate at 1.25%, leaving real policy rates negative. Capital flows toward positive real returns, which favors the dollar.

A narrowing of the gap requires one of two things: the Fed signaling that it is done hiking, which Wednesday’s statement refused to do, or the BoJ accelerating its pace beyond what the market expects. Friday’s meeting is the next opportunity for the latter.

The BoJ Is Expected to Hold at 1.25% on Friday, With December in Sight

The Bank of Japan meets on October 29 and 30, its first opportunity to assess how the September increase has filtered through the economy. The board raised its policy rate to 1.25% from 1.00% on September 18 in a 7–2 vote, its highest level in 31 years. A hold at 1.25% is widely expected on Friday, with the decision due around 03:00 GMT and Ueda’s press conference at 06:30 GMT.

Expectations for a December move have surged. A survey published on October 22 found that 83% of economists expect the next BoJ hike in December, up from 35% a month earlier, while none forecast an increase on October 30. Earlier in the month, overnight-rate futures gave an October hike roughly a one-in-four chance, a probability that has since faded.

Ueda’s message has shifted the bank’s focus. Speaking in Bangkok on October 16, he said that with underlying inflation now close to 2%, the bank can no longer tolerate further increases and must stabilize inflation around its target. He has also said there is no need for back-to-back hikes, and that oversized or consecutive increases are reserved for situations where inflation rises rapidly beyond target. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida described artificial intelligence as a positive demand shock adding upward pressure on activity and prices.

The data support further tightening. Japan’s September inflation rate stood at 2.1%, services prices are rising 3.7%, and underlying inflation has reached 2%. The BoJ’s quarterly Outlook Report, published with Friday’s decision, may raise its fiscal 2027 inflation forecast, which would reinforce the case for December.

The likely path is a hike to 1.50% in December or January, then 1.75% in March or April, with a terminal rate near 1.75% to 2.00%. Hawkish board members Takata and Tamura may begin pushing for the next hike on Friday, setting up a possible move at the December 17–18 meeting, while dovish members Asada and Sato have argued for patience.

The vote is the signal to watch. Hawkish dissents from Takata or Tamura, or language pointing to the next meeting, would likely bring December pricing forward and offer the yen some support. A unanimous hold paired with cautious messaging could see hike expectations drift toward January, keeping the yen soft. An upgraded inflation forecast would support the yen, but high oil prices will limit gains because Japan remains a key energy importer.

Two BoJ Hikes in 2026, and the Yen Weakened Both Times

History this year argues against expecting much from the BoJ. The bank raised its policy rate to 1.00% on June 16, with USD/JPY near 160.00. It raised again to 1.25% on September 18. The yen weakened after the September hike, as it did after the June hike, because a single 25-basis-point increase barely touches a 275-basis-point gap.

That pattern defines the yen’s challenge. The BoJ is tightening, but in steps too small to change the carry math. Investors borrowing yen at 1.25% to buy dollar assets yielding 4.75% at the two-year horizon still earn 350 basis points a year, and a further hike to 1.50% reduces that to 325 basis points. The trade remains highly profitable.

The Outlook Report can matter more than the decision. The BoJ’s July report placed the point at which underlying inflation reaches 2% somewhere between October 2026 and March 2028. If Friday’s report confirms that point has been reached, it would close an 18-month window in its first month and justify a faster pace of tightening than the market currently prices. That is the scenario that could force a sharp yen repricing.

Ueda has already promised more. He told a meeting of securities firms earlier in October that the BoJ will keep raising rates. If Friday’s report signals a faster pace, the market would have to price more than one hike over the next six months, which would narrow the forward rate gap and support the yen.

The risk for yen bulls is a cautious tone. If Ueda emphasizes uncertainty, high energy costs or the need to monitor the effects of the September hike, the market will push its expectations for the next hike from December to January or later. That would leave the yen exposed, especially after a hawkish Fed that keeps US yields elevated.

The asymmetry favors the dollar into Friday. A hawkish BoJ would likely pull USD/JPY back toward 157.00, roughly 130 pips lower. A cautious BoJ would likely push the pair toward 159.00 to 159.30, the 100-day moving average. Given the Fed’s hawkish hold, the cautious outcome would hit a market already leaning toward dollar strength.

¥11.74 Trillion in Spring Intervention Sets the 160 Line

Tokyo’s intervention record caps the upside. Japan’s Ministry of Finance bought 11.74 trillion yen in the currency market between April 28 and May 27, 2026, selling dollars to support the yen as USD/JPY pushed toward and above 160.00. In July, Japan and the US carried out a joint intervention, a rare coordinated action that showed Washington’s willingness to help stabilize the yen.

That history defines the 160.00 line. Any move toward 160 per dollar could trigger intervention, and the market knows it. Traders have been reluctant to push USD/JPY above 159.00 since the summer, because the risk of a sudden 3% to 5% drop on intervention outweighs the carry gained by holding dollars.

Officials have been warning again. With the yen back near 158, Tokyo has been threatening to intervene, and the warnings have kept speculative buying of dollars in check. The pair has failed to hold above 159.00 since the July intervention, touching 158.95 on October 14 before retreating.

Intervention works best when it is coordinated with fundamentals. The spring intervention came as the BoJ prepared its June hike, and the July joint action came as US data softened. An intervention in late October, after a hawkish Fed hold and before a BoJ decision, would be fighting the rate differential. That makes officials more likely to use verbal warnings first and act only if the move becomes rapid or disorderly.

The resistance zone between 159.00 and 160.70 is where intervention risk peaks. A break above 159.30, the 100-day moving average, would put the pair in that zone and raise the probability of a response. Traders positioning for a move above 160.00 would face the risk of a sharp reversal.

The intervention cap shapes the forecast’s risk profile. The upside is limited to roughly 160.00, about 172 pips above the current level, while the downside on a hawkish BoJ or a risk-off shock extends to the 155.00 to 156.00 support zone, roughly 230 to 330 pips lower. That asymmetry means USD/JPY is closer to its ceiling than its floor.

$102 WTI Hurts Japan’s Terms of Trade and Feeds the Dollar

Energy prices are a direct weight on the yen. WTI crude rose $2.94 to $102.82 after the Fed decision, and front-month Brent traded above $115 earlier in the day following a Houthi claim of a strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery. Japan imports nearly all of its oil and gas, which means every rise in crude prices widens its trade deficit and increases demand for dollars to pay for energy.

That dynamic has hurt the yen all year. The Iran war that began roughly eight months ago pushed oil from near $66 in early February to above $115, and Japan’s import bill rose with it. Each dollar of energy imports requires Japanese companies to sell yen and buy dollars, a steady flow that supports USD/JPY regardless of interest rates.

High oil also limits what the BoJ can do. Energy-driven inflation pushes headline prices higher, which supports the case for hikes, but it also squeezes household incomes and corporate margins, which slows growth. The BoJ has to balance those forces, and an upgraded inflation forecast on Friday would support the yen only partly because high oil prices will limit gains.

The geopolitical calendar adds risk. Reports on Wednesday said Washington has told Gulf states to prepare for renewed strikes against Iran after the November 3 US midterms. A renewed campaign that pushed Brent toward $120 would worsen Japan’s terms of trade and add upward pressure on USD/JPY through the trade channel. Crude barely moved on the Fed hold as Iran weighed a Qatari-mediated deal, which shows diplomacy remains a counterweight.

Risk sentiment cuts the other way. The yen still acts as a haven during sharp equity sell-offs, as it did on October 22, when US stocks fell and the yen rallied toward 156.00. Microsoft and Alphabet reported after the US close on Wednesday, and a sharp reaction in AI stocks could trigger either a risk-on rally that weakens the yen or a risk-off move that strengthens it.

The balance favors the dollar. With oil above $100 and AI equities recovering, the two forces that typically help the yen, falling energy costs and risk aversion, are both absent. The yen needs a shift in one of them, or a hawkish BoJ surprise, to break out of its range.

Thursday Brings US PCE, Q3 GDP and the ECB Before the BoJ

The calendar between the Fed and the BoJ is crowded. On Thursday, October 29, the US releases September PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP at 12:30 GMT. The European Central Bank announces its decision at 13:15 GMT, followed by President Christine Lagarde’s press conference at 13:45 GMT. The BoJ’s decision lands roughly 14 hours later.

The PCE report is the most important for USD/JPY. It is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, and Warsh said the committee will rely on accumulating more information to decide December. A hot PCE reading would push December hike pricing higher, lift the 2-year Treasury yield above 4.80% and support USD/JPY toward 159.00. A soft reading would ease December pricing and pull the pair back toward 157.50.

GDP adds context. The Fed described growth as strong on Wednesday, and a strong third-quarter GDP print would confirm that the US economy can absorb further tightening. A weak print, consistent with September payrolls of just 29,000, would give doves an argument for patience.

The ECB matters indirectly. A hold at 2.50% is expected, with 64 of 73 economists anticipating a December hike. If Lagarde signals December firmly, the euro could recover against the dollar, which would weaken the dollar index and modestly support the yen through broad dollar selling. If she sounds cautious, the euro’s slide toward 1.1066 would extend, and the dollar would strengthen across the board.

The sequence creates a three-step test for USD/JPY. PCE and GDP set the dollar’s tone on Thursday morning in New York. The ECB shapes the dollar index on Thursday afternoon in Europe. The BoJ decides the yen’s direction on Friday morning in Tokyo. The pair is likely to move in the direction of whichever surprise is largest.

Liquidity will be thin. The BoJ’s decision lands during the Asian session, when trading volumes are lower, and Ueda’s press conference starts at 06:30 GMT, before London opens. Sharp moves in thin markets are common around BoJ meetings, and the 160.00 intervention line adds the risk of official action during low-liquidity hours.

The Carry Trade Remains Crowded but Profitable

The yen carry trade is the dominant positioning in USD/JPY. With a 275-basis-point gap in policy rates and a 350-basis-point gap at the two-year horizon, investors are paid to borrow yen and hold dollars. That trade has driven the yen weaker for three years, and Wednesday’s Fed decision did nothing to reduce its appeal.

Positioning is crowded but not stretched to extremes. The late-October rally toward 156.00 shook out some weak longs, and the subsequent recovery to 158.28 shows that buyers returned quickly. The pair’s 68% retracement of its slide before the Fed decision suggests that carry traders treated the yen’s rally as a buying opportunity.

The carry trade carries tail risk. A sudden narrowing of the rate gap, either from a dovish Fed shift or an aggressive BoJ move, can trigger a rapid unwind, as investors rush to repay yen borrowings. In August 2024, a surprise BoJ hike combined with weak US data triggered one of the sharpest yen rallies in decades. The memory of that unwind keeps some traders cautious near 160.00.

Intervention is the other tail risk. A Ministry of Finance intervention can knock 3 to 5 big figures off USD/JPY within hours, wiping out months of carry gains. Traders holding dollars near 159.00 to 160.00 face that risk directly, which is why the pair has struggled to break above 159.00 since July.

The options market reflects the balance. Volatility rises around BoJ meetings, and implied volatility for Friday’s decision is likely to be elevated. Risk reversals that favor yen calls would signal that traders are paying up for protection against a sharp yen rally.

The carry math favors holding dollars in the base case. A trader earning 350 basis points a year on the two-year spread gains roughly 1 yen per month on a 158 starting point, before considering exchange-rate moves. That income cushions small yen rallies and keeps buyers active on dips toward 157.00. Only a shift in rate expectations or an intervention threat that becomes credible can break that support.

The Technical Map: 158.54 Pivot, 159.27 Resistance, 156.00 Support

USD/JPY’s chart places the pair at a critical pivot. On the daily timeframe, the pair trades slightly below the 200-day simple moving average at 158.54 and the 100-day average near 159.27. The pair remains confined between a major support zone at 155.00 to 156.00 and a resistance area at 159.00 to 160.70. On the four-hour chart, the pair has been trading around its 200-period moving average, which had kept a bearish near-term tone before the Fed decision.

The 200-day average at 158.54 is the immediate test. A daily close above it would flip the medium-term trend back in the dollar’s favor and open the 100-day average at 159.27. Above that, the October 14 high of 158.95 and the 159.00 to 160.70 resistance zone come into play, with 160.00 as the intervention line.

Support starts at 158.00, the round number the pair crossed after the Fed decision. Below that, 157.93, the pre-decision level, and 157.50, where the pair held through Wednesday morning, form the next band. The 157.00 level, which the pair reclaimed on Tuesday, is the next support. Below that, the major support zone at 155.00 to 156.00, which includes the October 23 one-month low near 156.00, is the floor.

The distances frame the risk. From 158.28, the upside to 158.54 is 26 pips, or 0.16%. The upside to 159.27 is 99 pips, or 0.63%, and to 160.00 is 172 pips, or 1.09%. The downside to 157.00 is 128 pips, or 0.81%, and to 156.00 is 228 pips, or 1.44%.

The near-term momentum favors the dollar. Three straight days of gains, a hawkish Fed hold and a dollar index at a two-week high support a test of 158.54. But the 100-day average and the intervention zone above 159.00 limit how far the pair can run, and the BoJ on Friday could reverse the move.

The pattern since July is a range between 155.00 and 159.00. The pair has tested both edges and failed to break either decisively. A break above 159.30 or below 155.00 would signal a new trend; until then, range trading remains the dominant strategy.

USD/JPY Forecast: 157.00–159.30 Range, 160 Capped, 156.00 on a Hawkish BoJ

The forecast for USD/JPY rests on whether the BoJ can narrow a rate gap that the Fed just refused to close. The Fed’s 10–2 hold, with two dissents for a hike, a growth assessment upgraded to strong and a commitment to accumulate more information before deciding, keeps the 275-basis-point policy gap intact and leaves about 79 basis points of Fed hikes priced for the year ahead. USD/JPY at 158.28 sits 26 pips below its 200-day average and 172 pips below Tokyo’s 160.00 intervention line.

The base case is a range between 157.00 and 159.30 through Friday’s BoJ press conference. The BoJ holds at 1.25% with a hawkish tilt that keeps December in play, the US PCE report lands close to expectations, and the pair oscillates around its 200-day average at 158.54. Carry traders buy dips toward 157.00, while intervention risk caps rallies near the 100-day average at 159.27.

The bullish case targets 159.27, then 160.00. It requires a hot US PCE print on Thursday that pushes December Fed hike pricing higher and lifts the 2-year Treasury yield above 4.80%, a cautious BoJ that holds unanimously and pushes the next hike toward January, and a risk-on equity tape after Microsoft and Alphabet earnings. A rise in Brent toward $120 on renewed Middle East tension would add pressure through Japan’s terms of trade. Above 159.50, intervention risk rises sharply.

The bearish case targets 157.00, then 156.00. It requires a hawkish BoJ, with dissents from Takata or Tamura, an upgraded fiscal 2027 inflation forecast and guidance pointing to December, combined with a soft US PCE print that eases December Fed pricing. A risk-off shock in equities or verbal intervention from Tokyo would accelerate the move. A break below 156.00 would expose the 155.00 base of the support zone.

The verdict is mildly bullish for the dollar with a hard ceiling. The Fed’s hawkish split and a 275-basis-point carry advantage favor dollar strength, and the BoJ’s history this year shows that single hikes do not reverse the trend. But the 160.00 intervention line, the 100-day average at 159.27 and Friday’s BoJ risk limit the upside. USD/JPY at 158.28 is a buy on dips toward 157.00 to 157.50 with a stop below 156.00, a sell on spikes toward 159.30 to 159.80 ahead of the intervention zone, and a daily close above 158.54 opens 159.27.

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