XRPI ($7.14) and XRPR ($10.92) Hold Gains as Spot Fund Assets Fall to $1.469B — Range Tied to XRP’s $1.25–$1.40 Band

The two most actively traded non-spot XRP funds closed higher on Wednesday despite a hawkish Federal Reserve. The Volatility Shares XRP ETF (NASDAQ: XRPI) closed at $7.14, up $0.05 or 0.71%, at the top of its $7.00 to $7.14 daily range, and slipped a cent to $7.13 after hours. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF (CBOE: XRPR) closed at $10.92, up $0.14 or 1.27%, also at its session high, after trading between $10.67 and $10.92.

Both funds closed at the exact top of their ranges. XRPI opened at $7.03 and XRPR at $10.71, so each fund gained through the session, including the hours after the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10–2 vote, with two officials dissenting in favor of an immediate hike. A close at the session high on a hawkish decision day signals that sellers did not use the Fed to push the funds lower.

The underlying asset framed the move. XRP traded near $1.32 to $1.33 on Wednesday, after rising on October 27 from about $1.29 to the $1.32 range before leveling off slightly below $1.33. XRP is down roughly 13% over the past month and about 64% from its all-time high of $3.66, which explains why both funds sit far below their 52-week highs.

The drawdowns are steep. XRPI at $7.14 is 54.7% below its 52-week high of $15.76 and 31.7% above its 52-week low of $5.42. XRPR at $10.92 is 50.3% below its 52-week high of $21.98 and 34.8% above its low of $8.10. Both funds bottomed with XRP’s August low near $0.97 and have since recovered roughly a third.

The demand picture behind XRP is soft. US spot XRP ETFs recorded a net outflow of $3.61 million on October 26, their total net assets have fallen from $1.70 billion on October 6 to $1.469 billion, and cumulative net inflows of $1.801 billion sit just below the $1.804 billion peak recorded on October 22 and 23. Fresh capital has slowed to a trickle after a record summer.

The forecast for both funds tracks XRP’s $1.25 support and $1.40 resistance. Mapped onto the funds, XRP at $1.40 corresponds to roughly $7.52 on XRPI and $11.49 on XRPR, while XRP at $1.25 corresponds to roughly $6.71 and $10.26. The base case is a range between those levels through Friday’s monthly close.

How XRPI and XRPR Differ From the Spot XRP Funds

XRPI and XRPR are not spot XRP trusts. They predate the wave of spot XRP ETFs that launched in November 2025 and use different structures to deliver exposure to XRP’s price, which affects how they track the token and what they cost to hold.

XRPI, launched by Volatility Shares on Nasdaq in May 2025, gains XRP exposure through futures contracts rather than holding XRP directly. A futures-based fund must roll its contracts as they approach expiry, selling the expiring month and buying the next. When later-dated futures trade above the front month, a condition known as contango, each roll costs a small amount, which causes the fund to lag spot XRP over time.

XRPR, launched by REX Shares and Osprey Funds on Cboe in September 2025, was the first US-listed fund to offer spot-linked XRP exposure. It uses the Investment Company Act of 1940 framework rather than the Securities Act structure used by the spot trusts, holding XRP and related instruments partly through an offshore subsidiary. That structure allowed it to launch before the spot trusts were approved.

Cost and tracking differ across the wrappers. XRPI charges 0.94% a year and XRPR 0.75%, compared with 0.34% for the Bitwise XRP ETF, which has accrued its sponsor fee at that annual rate since its fee waiver ended in December 2025. Higher fees and futures roll costs mean XRPI and XRPR trail the token more than the spot funds do over longer holding periods.

The daily moves show the gap. On Wednesday, XRPR rose 1.27% and XRPI 0.71%, while XRP itself had risen roughly 1.65% at its intraday high. XRPR’s structure tracks closer to spot, while XRPI’s futures-based design and different pricing time produced a smaller gain.

For traders, both funds offer XRP exposure through a standard brokerage account, with options-eligible shares and intraday liquidity. For longer-term holders, the spot trusts, including Bitwise’s XRP, Canary’s XRPC and Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ, offer lower costs and tighter tracking.

Mapping the Funds to XRP: $1.25, $1.40, $1.50 and $0.98

Because XRPI and XRPR track XRP closely day to day, their key levels can be translated directly from the token’s chart. At Wednesday’s close, XRPI traded at roughly 5.37 times XRP’s price near $1.33, and XRPR at roughly 8.21 times. Those ratios drift slowly over time with fees and roll costs but are stable over days.

XRP’s $1.25 support is the first downside level. On XRPI, that corresponds to about $6.71, and on XRPR to about $10.26. XRP has held $1.25 through October’s lows, and a daily close below it would open a deeper decline for both funds.

XRP’s $1.40 resistance is the first upside level. On XRPI, that corresponds to about $7.52, and on XRPR to about $11.49. The $1.40 level marks XRP’s 50-day average, and a decisive close above it is one of the two conditions analysts cite for a genuine change in trend.

XRP’s $1.50 target, the next resistance above $1.40, corresponds to about $8.05 on XRPI and $12.32 on XRPR. That would represent gains of 12.7% and 12.8% respectively from Wednesday’s closes.

XRP’s $0.98 breakdown level, close to its August low of $0.97, corresponds to about $5.26 on XRPI and $8.05 on XRPR. Those figures sit right at the funds’ 52-week lows of $5.42 and $8.10, which confirms the mapping: both funds bottomed alongside XRP’s August low.

The levels give clear risk parameters. From $7.14, XRPI’s downside to $6.71 is 6.0%, and its upside to $7.52 is 5.3%. From $10.92, XRPR’s downside to $10.26 is 6.0%, and its upside to $11.49 is 5.2%. The near-term risk-reward is balanced in both funds, with neither level far from price.

Spot XRP ETFs Lost $3.61M on October 26, All From Bitwise

The spot XRP fund complex shows demand that has stalled rather than collapsed. On October 26, US spot XRP ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $3.61 million. Only the Bitwise XRP ETF recorded a net outflow, and its cumulative net inflow stands at $680 million.

The rest of the complex was flat. No other spot XRP fund recorded flows on October 26, a sign that buyers and sellers were both sitting out ahead of the Fed decision. The outflow was small relative to the $1.469 billion in total net assets across the funds, equal to roughly 0.25%.

The broader crypto ETF picture shows where money went. On October 26, Bitcoin spot ETFs took in $110.34 million, while Ethereum, Solana and XRP ETFs lost $88.58 million, $8.23 million and $3.61 million respectively. Combined net flows across the four categories stayed positive at $9.92 million, but only because Bitcoin’s inflows offset the altcoin outflows.

The pattern has persisted. On October 27, Bitcoin ETFs took in $176.0 million while Ethereum and Solana funds lost money again. Institutional crypto demand has concentrated in Bitcoin, leaving XRP, Solana and Ethereum products with weak or negative flows.

Cumulative net inflows into spot XRP ETFs stand at $1.801 billion. That is just below the $1.804 billion peak reached on October 22 and 23, meaning October’s net flows have been nearly flat. The flow trigger that analysts watch is a run of positive daily inflows that pushes cumulative net inflows beyond $1.804 billion, which would show new money entering the market.

Bitwise’s fund is the largest. Its cumulative net inflows of $680 million lead the complex, ahead of Franklin’s XRPZ and Canary’s XRPC. Bitwise’s dominance means its flows set the daily direction, as they did on October 26.

Net Assets Fell From $1.70B to $1.469B as XRP Slid

The decline in spot XRP ETF assets has come almost entirely from price. Total net assets fell from a high of $1.70 billion on October 6 to $1.469 billion on October 26, a drop of $231 million or 13.6%. Over the same period, cumulative net inflows barely moved, so the decline reflects XRP’s falling price rather than redemptions.

Earlier in the month, the picture was stronger. During the September 28 to October 2 week, spot XRP ETFs took in $4.74 million, with Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ accounting for $4.065 million and Canary’s XRPC adding $780,900. Total net assets stood at $1.66 billion, equal to 1.79% of XRP’s market capitalization.

The streak broke in mid-October. During the October 12 to 16 week, spot XRP ETFs recorded $1.84 million in withdrawals, ending 13 consecutive weeks of net inflows. Bitwise’s product lost roughly $3.01 million that week, while XRPZ attracted about $3.64 million, partly offsetting the outflows.

The scale of new demand has shrunk. The largest daily inflow since late September was about $8.2 million on October 8. October inflows totaled only about $13 million as of mid-month, and XRP’s price did not rise with those flows. A report on October 15 cited roughly $1.8 billion in historical ETF inflows but noted that October’s contribution was minimal.

That contrasts sharply with late summer. In one week in August, spot XRP ETFs took in $110.49 million, with all five trading days recording double-digit inflows. The best day that week brought in $28.14 million, the strongest since January 5, when the funds attracted more than $46 million. That week marked the best five-day performance since early December 2025.

The funds hold roughly 1.19 billion XRP. At $1.33, those holdings are worth about $1.58 billion by token value, while reported net assets of $1.469 billion reflect the price on October 26. The ETF share of XRP’s supply remains small, about 1.9% of XRP’s market value, so ETF flows alone are unlikely to drive large price moves.

Ripple’s OCC Charter, Swell and RLUSD: Fundamentals Without Flows

Ripple has delivered a run of corporate milestones this month that have not translated into ETF demand. On October 26, Ripple received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a national trust bank charter, allowing it to offer regulated custody and settlement services in the US. On October 27, Ripple held its annual Swell conference, where it highlighted payments and stablecoin growth.

RLUSD, Ripple’s dollar stablecoin, has grown to $2.47 billion in supply. But only 39% of that supply sits on the XRP Ledger, down from 49% earlier, with the rest on Ethereum and other chains. Growth in RLUSD strengthens Ripple’s business without creating proportional demand for XRP.

Payments adoption faces the same issue. Stablecoin and payments activity on the XRP Ledger can grow without requiring users to hold large amounts of XRP, which serves mainly as a bridge asset and fee token. That disconnect explains why strong corporate news has not lifted XRP or the ETFs.

The regulatory backdrop is mixed. The CLARITY Act, legislation intended to define the jurisdiction of US regulators over crypto markets, failed a Senate vote 49 to 50 on September 15. That outcome left the regulatory framework for tokens like XRP less settled than many investors had hoped.

Supply overhang remains a factor. Ripple holds 31.40 billion XRP in escrow, and its monthly unlocks release up to 1 billion XRP. Roughly 37 billion unreleased XRP outweigh the $1.8 billion in fund holdings, so the funds provide some support but cannot absorb a large supply release on their own.

The fundamentals and the flows have diverged. Ripple is building a regulated financial business, with a trust charter, a growing stablecoin and a payments network. But XRP’s price depends on demand for the token itself, and that demand, measured by ETF flows and exchange balances, has weakened through October.

Exchange Balances Rose 2.31 Billion XRP While Whales Control 68.5%

On-chain data show selling pressure building. Exchange balances rose to 22.61 billion XRP by late October, up from 20.30 billion on October 3, an increase of 2.31 billion XRP in three weeks. Rising exchange balances typically signal that holders are moving tokens to venues where they can sell.

Other measures show a different picture. Separate data put XRP reserves across exchanges at 11.81 billion tokens on October 17, reflecting differences in how trackers classify wallets. Both counts point to rising balances through the month, but the absolute level depends on methodology.

Whale concentration has reached a multi-year high. XRP whales now control 68.5% of the supply, the most since 2022. But that figure includes exchange cold wallets, ETF custodians and Ripple’s treasury, meaning the increase may reflect storage shifts rather than new buying by large investors.

Whale accumulation has not stopped price weakness. Large holders have increased their share of supply through October while XRP has fallen roughly 13%, which suggests the accumulation reflects custody consolidation rather than aggressive buying.

Leverage has declined. Leverage on the largest offshore exchange has fallen, according to on-chain analysts, which reduces the risk of a forced liquidation cascade but also removes a source of speculative buying.

For XRPI and XRPR, on-chain data matter through XRP’s price. Rising exchange balances raise the risk of a break below $1.25, which would push XRPI toward $6.71 and XRPR toward $10.26. A reversal in exchange flows, with tokens moving off exchanges into cold storage, would support a recovery toward $1.40.

A 10–2 Fed Hold, a 5.01% 10-Year and Oil Above $100

The macro backdrop weighs on XRP and the funds that track it. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a quarter-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh said there is no soft inflation target and that the Fed has not yet achieved price stability.

Markets entered the month expecting worse. In late September, markets priced as much as a 64% to 70% chance of a hike at the October meeting, after Goldman Sachs and Bank of America added October hikes to their forecasts. A hot CPI report on October 14 doubled October hike odds at the time and pushed XRP toward $1.33. By the meeting, the hold was priced at more than 90%.

The hold removed one risk. A hike on Wednesday would have raised the cost of holding non-yielding assets like XRP and likely pushed both funds lower. The hold, combined with XRPI and XRPR closing at their session highs, shows that the market treated the outcome as a relief, even with the dissents.

But rates remain high. The 10-year Treasury yields 5.01%, and markets price roughly 79 basis points of hikes over the next year. December hike odds remain elevated. Every basis point of yield on Treasuries raises the opportunity cost of holding speculative tokens.

Oil adds to the pressure. Brent crude trades above $115 a barrel and WTI above $101 after Yemen’s Houthis claimed a strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery. Analysts note that oil above $100 feeds inflation and keeps the Fed from cutting, removing the speculative capital XRP needs to rally. In that scenario, XRP is likely stuck between $1.00 and $1.35, and a Fed hike could extend the drawdown to $0.80.

Thursday’s data test the outlook. September PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP land at 8:30 a.m. ET. A soft PCE print would ease December hike pricing and support XRP toward $1.40, lifting XRPI toward $7.52 and XRPR toward $11.49. A hot print would revive hike fears and push the funds toward their $1.25-equivalent levels.

Bitcoin’s Bid Has Not Spilled Into XRP

XRP’s weakness stands out against Bitcoin’s relative strength. Bitcoin ETFs took in $286.3 million on October 26 and 27, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $261.8 million. Over the same two days, XRP spot ETFs lost $3.61 million on October 26 and recorded little activity on October 27.

The rotation is clear. Institutional money is concentrating in Bitcoin, the most liquid and least regulatory-sensitive crypto asset, while altcoin products see outflows. Ethereum ETFs lost $1.26 billion in October through Tuesday, and Solana ETFs lost $99.62 million, while XRP ETFs held near flat.

XRP’s relative resilience in flows is notable. XRP spot ETFs have avoided the large outflows that hit Ethereum and Solana funds, with October flows close to zero rather than sharply negative. That stability reflects a holder base that has not panicked, even as XRP’s price has fallen.

But price has lagged. XRP is down roughly 13% over the past month, compared with Bitcoin’s decline of about 3%. XRP’s beta to Bitcoin is high, so it falls more than Bitcoin in sell-offs and needs Bitcoin to lead any recovery.

Bitcoin’s $81,500 level matters for XRP. That is the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and a daily close above it would put ETF holders back in profit and could trigger momentum buying across crypto. A failure there would leave XRP exposed to further selling, with $1.25 the key support.

For XRPI and XRPR holders, Bitcoin is the main driver after XRP itself. A Bitcoin rally toward $86,000 would likely lift XRP toward $1.40 to $1.50, pushing both funds toward the upper end of their ranges. A Bitcoin drop toward $76,500 would likely push XRP below $1.25, taking both funds toward the lower end.

Technical Map: Death Cross, $1.40 50-Day Average, $1.25 Floor

XRP’s chart, which drives both funds, shows a market in a downtrend. A death cross formed on the daily chart, where the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day, signaling that the medium-term trend has turned negative. The 50-day average sits near $1.40, and XRP trades about 5% below it.

Bollinger bands on the daily chart run from $1.26 to $1.41, with the 20-day midpoint at $1.3346 and falling. XRP trades just below the midpoint, in the lower half of the band, which confirms the bearish tilt. A move above the midpoint would be the first sign of strength.

XRP’s 24-hour range on Wednesday ran from $1.31 to $1.34, a narrow band. XRP traded in its narrowest daily range of October on October 25 ahead of the Fed, and the tight trading has continued since. Narrow ranges often precede larger moves, and the Fed decision and Thursday’s PCE data could provide the catalyst.

Support sits at $1.25, the October low and the level XRP has defended through the month. Below that, $1.00 to $1.10 marks the next support zone, and $0.98 the breakdown level near the August low. Resistance sits at $1.35, then $1.40, the 50-day average and upper Bollinger band, then $1.50.

For XRPI, the technical levels translate to support at $6.71, resistance at $7.25 and $7.52, and a breakout target of $8.05. For XRPR, support sits at $10.26, resistance at $11.08 and $11.49, and the breakout target at $12.32.

The two conditions for a trend change are clear. XRP needs a decisive close above its $1.40 50-day average, and ETF inflows past the $1.804 billion cumulative peak. Neither has happened yet. Until both do, the funds remain in a downtrend with rallies likely to meet selling.

Wednesday’s Session Close at the Highs Is the Only Bullish Signal

The most constructive feature of Wednesday’s trading was where both funds closed. XRPI closed at $7.14, its intraday high, after opening at $7.03 and dipping to $7.00. XRPR closed at $10.92, its intraday high, after opening at $10.71 and dipping to $10.67. Both funds rallied steadily through the US session, including after the Fed decision.

A close at the session high on a decision day shows buyers in control into the bell. Traders who expected the Fed’s hawkish tone to push risk assets lower did not get the reaction they wanted, and both funds finished with their best prints of the day.

XRPR’s stronger gain stands out. At 1.27%, XRPR outperformed XRPI’s 0.71%, reflecting its closer tracking of spot XRP and different pricing timing. XRPR’s previous close was $10.78, and its $0.14 gain added roughly 1.3% to its value. XRPI’s previous close was $7.09.

After-hours trading was quiet. XRPI slipped a cent to $7.13, a decline of 0.14%, as the broader market digested Alphabet’s earnings miss and Microsoft’s beat. No after-hours trade was recorded for XRPR beyond its $10.92 close.

The signal is limited. One day of strength does not change a downtrend, and both funds remain well below their 50-day equivalents. But a close at the highs gives the funds a firmer starting point for Thursday’s PCE data than a close at the lows would have.

The confirmation level is clear. A second day of gains, taking XRP above $1.35 and XRPI above $7.25 and XRPR above $11.08, would show that Wednesday’s rally had follow-through. A reversal back toward $7.00 on XRPI and $10.67 on XRPR would show it was a one-day bounce.

Friday’s Month-End Close and the November Setup

Friday’s monthly close is a key reference point for both funds. XRP opened October near $1.50 and has fallen roughly 13% through the month. A monthly close below $1.30 would confirm a second straight losing month and leave XRP near the bottom of the range it has occupied since February.

November brings its own catalysts. Ripple can release up to 1 billion XRP from escrow on November 1, adding to potential supply. The October 1 unlock of 1 billion XRP has remained in Ripple’s wallets, untouched, as of October 27. Ripple has typically re-locked most of each monthly release, but the overhang weighs on sentiment.

US midterm elections on November 3 add political uncertainty. Crypto policy has been a campaign issue, and the outcome could affect the prospects for legislation like the CLARITY Act, which failed in the Senate in September. A result that favors clearer crypto regulation would support XRP; one that stalls legislation further would weigh on it.

The Fed’s December 9 meeting is the next major macro event. Markets price a high probability of a hike, and the October dissents suggest the committee is leaning that way. A December hike would raise the opportunity cost of holding XRP further, while a hold would ease pressure.

ETF flows will be the clearest signal through November. A run of daily inflows above $5 million, pushing cumulative net inflows past $1.804 billion, would show renewed institutional interest. Continued flat or negative flows would confirm that demand has stalled.

For XRPI and XRPR, November’s direction depends on whether XRP can reclaim $1.40. A move above that level would put XRPI near $7.52 and XRPR near $11.49, opening a path toward their $1.50-equivalent levels. A failure would leave both funds vulnerable to a retest of the $1.25-equivalent levels and, in a deeper sell-off, the 52-week lows.

XRP ETF Forecast: XRPI $6.71–$7.52, XRPR $10.26–$11.49, Breakout Above $1.40 XRP

The forecast for XRPI and XRPR rests on XRP’s ability to hold $1.25 and reclaim $1.40. Both funds closed Wednesday at their session highs, XRPI at $7.14, up 0.71%, and XRPR at $10.92, up 1.27%, after the Fed held rates 10–2. But spot XRP ETFs lost $3.61 million on October 26, their net assets fell from $1.70 billion to $1.469 billion this month, and cumulative inflows have stalled at $1.801 billion, just below the $1.804 billion peak.

The base case is a range for XRP between $1.25 and $1.40 through Friday, which translates to XRPI between $6.71 and $7.52 and XRPR between $10.26 and $11.49. Thursday’s PCE data and Friday’s month-end positioning set the direction within the range, with Bitcoin’s $81,500 cost basis the main external driver.

The bullish case requires a daily XRP close above $1.40, the 50-day average and upper Bollinger band. It needs a soft PCE print, a Bitcoin close above $81,500, and a run of spot XRP ETF inflows that pushes cumulative flows past $1.804 billion. XRP would target $1.50, lifting XRPI to about $8.05 and XRPR to about $12.32, gains of roughly 13% from Wednesday’s closes.

The bearish case requires a daily XRP close below $1.25. It needs a hot PCE print, a Bitcoin slide toward $76,500, continued growth in exchange balances and further ETF outflows. XRP would target $1.00 to $1.10 and potentially $0.98, pushing XRPI toward $5.26 to $5.90 and XRPR toward $8.05 to $9.03, near their 52-week lows.

The verdict is neutral with a bearish tilt. Ripple’s fundamentals, from the OCC charter to RLUSD’s $2.47 billion supply, are improving, and spot ETF holders have not panicked. But flows have stalled, exchange balances are rising, a death cross sits on the daily chart, and the Fed’s two hike dissents keep macro pressure on. For traders, XRPR offers tighter tracking to spot XRP, while XRPI’s futures structure adds roll costs. Both are buys on dips toward their $1.25-equivalent levels, $6.71 on XRPI and $10.26 on XRPR, with stops below the $1.20-equivalent, and sells into $7.52 and $11.49 unless XRP closes above $1.40 on rising ETF inflows.

That's TradingNEWS