Warner Bros Stock Price Forecast - WBD Trading At $27.54 Between Netflix’s $27.75 Cash Floor And A $30 Takeover Wildcard

NASDAQ:WBD – Deal-Driven Stock Trapped Between $27.75 And $30

NASDAQ:WBD price, range and trading setup

NASDAQ:WBD closed at $27.54, fractionally below the prior close at $27.60, and the after-hours quote slipped to $27.50. The stock is now a $68.26B media platform with a 52-week range of $7.52–$30.00, trading in a tight intraday band of $27.36–$27.79. Valuation has exploded versus the crisis lows: the forward P/E sits above 70x, reflecting deal optionality more than pure earnings power. Any serious work on the name today starts from the fact that WBD’s tape is controlled by M&A mechanics, not by quarterly EPS. The live picture sits here for reference on the real-time chart.

Netflix $27.75 all-cash bid: hard floor and near-term ceiling for NASDAQ:WBD

The amended Netflix offer is simple: $27.75 per WBD share in cash for the studios and streaming complex. At a cash leg only $0.21 above the last trade at $27.54, the classical merger spread has been crushed to roughly 0.8%, well within normal noise for a mid-cap media stock. That tiny spread tells you what the market believes: the Netflix deal is currently treated as the base case, with a high probability of closing and a short time frame embedded. For common equity, this cash number is both a floor and a cap. As long as regulators do not derail the transaction, upside from deal completion alone is only cents, while any sustained move below the mid-$27s would signal rising doubt about closing or timing.

What Netflix is really buying inside NASDAQ:WBD

The $27.75 offer targets the high-value engine in NASDAQ:WBD: Warner Bros. studios, HBO and Max, the DC universe, games and the premium streaming and licensing infrastructure. In economic terms, Netflix is paying to bolt a global IP factory and a deep library onto its own streaming distribution and ad stack. Post-deal, Netflix gets the growth pieces: scripted franchises, tentpole films, prestige series, and the ability to monetize them across subscription, advertising and downstream licensing at scale. WBD holders effectively cash out of that upside and retain the legacy segments that do not fit Netflix’s model. This split is why the risk profile of WBD has flipped from “turnaround media conglomerate” to “event-driven stub plus cash leg”.

Discovery Global stub: structurally shrinking, heavily levered, still worth something

Once the studio and Max assets move to Netflix, existing NASDAQ:WBD shareholders will receive shares in Discovery Global, a spin-off built around global linear networks, discovery+, CNN, TNT Sports and Bleacher Report. Management projections point to revenue sliding from about $16.9B in 2026 toward $15.6B by 2030, while EBITDA (after stock-based comp) falls from roughly $4.6B to $2.9B as cord-cutting pressure compounds. Net debt is expected near $17B, leaving the stub leveraged at roughly 3.5–5.5x EBITDA depending on the year you use. On a blunt 5x EV/EBITDA multiple to 2026 numbers, Discovery Global would carry around $23B of enterprise value. Subtract $17B of net debt and you get $6B of equity; spread across the current share count, that implies low-single-digit dollars per current WBD share. Even if the market slaps a harsher multiple on a shrinking linear bundle, the absolute dollar risk on the stub is small versus the $27.75 cash anchor. The real question is not whether Discovery Global is flawless, but whether a risky, cash-flow-positive asset with leverage deserves zero. The current WBD price, sitting almost exactly on the Netflix cash leg, is treating that equity optionality as close to worthless.

Paramount Skydance $30 hostile proposal: upside cap above NASDAQ:WBD

The hostile all-cash bid from Paramount Skydance at $30.00 per share adds a second layer of structure to NASDAQ:WBD. Paramount is arguing that its proposal, roughly $2.25 richer than the Netflix leg, offers more value and fewer regulatory headaches. The board disagrees and has endorsed Netflix, but the $30 marker still matters. It creates a soft ceiling above the stock: if WBD trades materially above $30, the tape must be discounting either a raised offer from Netflix, a sweetened bid from Paramount, or a very bullish view on the spin-off. At $27.54, none of that is in the price. The market is not paying for a guaranteed $30 take-out; it is treating the Paramount proposal as out-of-the-money upside. If Paramount succeeds and closes at $30, the incremental gain from today is about $2.46 per share or ~9%. If Paramount walks away or is sidelined by process, the current quote loses nothing on that front. That asymmetry is attractive for special-situations capital but does not transform the stock for long-only investors.

Regulatory and political risk: why NASDAQ:WBD trades like a merger file, not a media stock

Regulation is the main threat that can punch a hole below $27.00. A combined Netflix–Warner entity would dominate premium streaming in multiple markets, merge a vast content library with the leading subscription and ad-supported platform, and concentrate bargaining power with talent, distributors and advertisers. State attorneys general and small exhibitors have already signaled opposition and are pressuring enforcers to challenge the deal. Any Department of Justice or FTC complaint to block the transaction would force NASDAQ:WBD to reprice back to standalone fundamentals, likely well below the current $27.54 quote given the stock traded under $10.00 less than a year ago. The market is now trading three regulatory states: a clean approval, an extended review or litigation, and a full block. Each state has a different P&L profile for WBD holders, and that is why the stock no longer responds violently to every headline; the game is now about time and process, not news surprise.

Option surface and merger-arb behavior around NASDAQ:WBD

Implied volatility across the WBD option chain confirms the arbitrage framing. Near-term calls around $29–$30 concentrate open interest and trade with rich implied volatility, consistent with capped upside controlled by the bid levels. Mid-dated puts in the low- and mid-$20s carry heavy premium, reflecting tail risk of deal failure and reversion toward pre-deal media valuations. Longer-dated expiries still hold elevated IV, even as the underlying stock barely moves, which signals that the options market is now pricing duration and regulatory optionality more than directional conviction. This backdrop favors covered-call writing slightly above spot for holders who accept the $27.75–$30 cap, or cash-secured put selling in the mid-$20s for traders willing to own NASDAQ:WBD if the Netflix structure collapses and the market reprices the business as an independent media company again. None of that is “safe income”; it is classic merger-arb risk with headline and litigation exposure.

Standalone WBD fallback: what happens if the deals blow up

If both Netflix and Paramount Skydance walk away or regulators block every path, NASDAQ:WBD reverts to a leveraged, content-rich, structurally challenged media conglomerate. The stock’s $7.52 low in the last 12 months shows what the market thought of that story before M&A surfaced. Debt remains heavy, the linear portfolio still bleeds, and streaming economics are competitive and capital intensive. The one bright spot is that the underlying IP and studio assets that Netflix wants do not vanish if a judge blocks the merger; they remain with WBD and can be monetized across licensing, international distribution and direct-to-consumer. In that scenario, the stock profile metrics and any future insider transactions would matter far more than deal spreads. But there is no reason to assume the pre-deal trough near $7–$10 cannot be revisited if the entire M&A premium disappears and the cycle turns against media again. That downside tail is exactly what the current micro-spread over $27.75 is failing to compensate for.

Final stance on NASDAQ:WBD – event-driven Hold with a speculative long bias

At $27.54, NASDAQ:WBD is no longer a classic value or growth trade; it is a deal file pinned between a $27.75 friendly bid and a $30.00 hostile marker, with an unpriced Discovery Global stub on top and very real regulatory risk underneath. The cash leg caps near-term upside to cents, the Paramount proposal adds limited convexity toward $30, and the spin-off offers uncertain low-single-digit equity value levered to a declining linear TV bundle. The downside scenario, where regulators kill the Netflix path and the stock reprices back to independent-media terms, is severe in absolute dollars. On that balance, the clean rating is Hold. For specialized event-driven capital that actively trades spreads and options, WBD can justify a speculative Buy for arbitrage and stub optionality. For long-only investors looking for fundamental upside beyond the deal, the reward-to-risk at $27–$28 is not compelling enough to justify fresh capital.

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