XRP Holds $1.03 After Brief Break Below $1 as ETF Holders Stay Put and $1.26 Target Holds

XRP traded at $1.03 on Friday, November 13, after a session that took the token below $1.00 for the first time since August. The 24-hour range ran from $0.9998 to $1.055, and on Binance the low printed at $0.9975 before buyers pulled the price back to $1.0303 within hours. At $1.03, XRP carries a market capitalization of $65.24 billion on a circulating supply of 63.52 billion tokens, with $2.06 billion in 24-hour trading volume. It ranks sixth among all crypto assets.

The decline has been relentless. Friday marked the ninth consecutive day of losses. XRP traded at $1.18 a week ago, $1.33 a month ago and $2.33 a year ago. That leaves the token down 13% on the week, 23% on the month and 56% on the year. Against its all-time high of $3.65, set on July 17, 2025, XRP sits 72% lower.

The selling is not specific to XRP. Bitcoin fell 6.6% in 24 hours and dropped below $68,000 on Friday, and Ethereum lost the $2,000 level. Stablecoin balances shrank by $14.2 billion as liquidity drained from the sector. A wave of forced selling hit leveraged traders across exchanges. The broader backdrop is a 19-month high in the dollar index at 103.30, a 10-year Treasury yield at 5.16%, a December Federal Reserve hike fully priced, and a 1.85% drop in the Nasdaq Composite after Nvidia’s chief executive resigned.

Inside that storm, the $1.00 level carries outsized weight. It is the psychological floor that XRP held through the spring and summer of 2026, and the level that separates a deep correction from a full reset of the 2024 to 2025 rally. Friday’s intraday break and fast recovery show buyers still defend it, but each test weakens the floor.

The thesis for this forecast is that XRP’s institutional base is holding better than its price. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds still show $1.79 billion of cumulative net inflows, the six spot funds hold 1.17 billion XRP, and wallets holding at least 10,000 tokens keep growing. Those holders have not capitulated. If $1.00 holds and the crypto selloff stabilizes, XRP has a path back to its 50-day exponential moving average at $1.26, the upside target for this forecast and a 22% gain from $1.03.

Nine Days Down: How XRP Fell From $1.18 to $0.9975

The sequence shows a market that lost support level by level as the macro picture darkened.

XRP began November near $1.09, a level it slipped toward in the first days of the month after failing to hold above $1.10. A rebound attempt took the token back to $1.18 by the end of the first week, but sellers returned on every bounce. Each failed rally set a lower high, and each pullback found a lower low.

The macro shift accelerated the slide this week. On Tuesday, U.S. October consumer prices rose 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast, and the 2-year Treasury yield jumped 17 basis points, its biggest one-day move since April 2025. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered in December. On Thursday, the dollar index broke to a 19-month high above 103 and the 10-year yield climbed 11.6 basis points to 5.105%. On Friday, producer prices showed a 6.5% annual rate, the highest since November 2022.

Crypto assets trade as high-beta risk assets in that environment. Rising real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding tokens, and a stronger dollar drains global liquidity. Bitcoin’s drop below $70,000 on Thursday and below $68,000 on Friday pulled the entire sector lower, and XRP followed.

Leverage made the move sharper. As prices fell, long positions in perpetual futures hit liquidation thresholds, and forced selling pushed prices through support faster than spot buyers could absorb. That cascade produced Friday’s dip to $0.9975 on Binance, an intraday move that took out stops clustered just below $1.00.

The recovery was fast. XRP climbed back to $1.0303 within hours of the low, down 1.6% on the day at that point. The speed of the rebound suggests that spot buyers and larger holders were waiting below $1.00, and that the break was driven by liquidations rather than a wave of new sellers.

The pattern matters for the forecast. A nine-day losing streak driven by macro and leverage tends to exhaust itself once forced sellers are cleared. If Friday’s liquidation sweep marked that point, the next move favors a relief rally. If Bitcoin keeps falling, XRP will test $1.00 again, and the next break could last longer than a few hours.

The Macro Squeeze: Fed Hikes, a 103 Dollar and $14.2 Billion of Stablecoin Outflows

XRP’s slide this week cannot be separated from the macro backdrop, and that backdrop will decide when the selling ends.

The Federal Reserve is the main driver. Futures markets price a quarter-point hike at the December 8 and 9 meeting as fully certain, with odds of a half-point move above 10%. Fed officials across the spectrum have leaned hawkish. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that the Fed is not making progress on inflation. Higher policy rates make cash and Treasury bills more attractive relative to crypto assets that pay no yield.

The dollar is amplifying the pressure. The dollar index reached 103.30 on Friday, its highest in 19 months. A strong dollar tightens global financial conditions and tends to weigh on assets priced in dollars, including Bitcoin and XRP. The euro fell to a 19-month low and the yen weakened past 160 per dollar, signs of how broad the dollar’s rally has become.

Treasury yields set the opportunity cost. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.16% on Friday, its highest since October. At those levels, institutional investors can earn more than 5% in government debt with no price risk, which reduces the appeal of speculative positions.

Liquidity inside crypto is shrinking. Stablecoin balances fell by $14.2 billion, a sign that capital is leaving the sector rather than rotating between tokens. Stablecoins serve as the dry powder for crypto trading; when that pool shrinks, buying power for every token falls.

Equity markets added to the risk-off tone. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.85% and the S&P 500 dropped 1.09% on Friday, led by a semiconductor rout after Nvidia’s chief executive resigned. Crypto has traded with high correlation to technology stocks through 2026, and the AI trade’s stumble spilled over into digital assets.

The macro calendar offers both risk and relief. Nvidia reports earnings on Tuesday, a test of the AI spending story that has underpinned risk appetite. The Fed meets December 8 and 9. If the Fed delivers a quarter-point hike and signals the cycle is near its end, the dollar and yields could peak, easing pressure on crypto. A half-point move or hawkish guidance would extend the squeeze.

For XRP, the macro picture means the token’s near-term direction depends more on Bitcoin and the dollar than on XRP-specific news. A stabilizing dollar and a Bitcoin rebound above $70,000 would set the stage for XRP to reclaim $1.19 and push toward $1.26.

Spot XRP ETFs Turn One: $1.79 Billion In, $1.16 Billion Held

Friday marked a milestone that frames XRP’s institutional story. The Canary XRP ETF, ticker XRPC, launched on November 13, 2025, as the first U.S.-listed spot XRP exchange-traded fund. One year later, six spot XRP funds trade in the United States, and their flow data shows an investor base that has bent but not broken.

Cumulative net inflows across the spot XRP funds stand at $1.79 billion since launch. Total net assets have fallen to $1.16 billion, equal to 1.77% of XRP’s market capitalization. The gap between those two numbers reflects price decline, not investor withdrawals: holders put in $1.79 billion, and the XRP they bought is now worth less.

The fund-level data shows where the money sits. The Bitwise XRP ETF is the largest of the spot funds, with $420.29 million in net assets and $672 million in cumulative net inflows. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ has drawn $524 million in cumulative inflows, and Canary’s XRPC has drawn $484 million. The six spot funds held 1.17 billion XRP as of the November 11 close, or 1.19 billion including the XRP held by Bitwise’s multi-asset fund.

Recent flows turned negative but remained modest. The spot XRP funds recorded $10.42 million of net outflows on November 9, led by $9.40 million from the Bitwise fund and $811,400 from XRPC. Another $7.62 million left on November 10. No net flows occurred on November 11 or 12. In the week of November 2 to 6, net outflows totaled just $529,500.

Those numbers are small against the base. Outflows of $18 million over two sessions equal 1.6% of current net assets and 1.0% of cumulative inflows. ETF holders have not rushed for the exits during a nine-day slide and a 23% monthly decline.

The peak shows how far assets have fallen. Net assets for the group reached $1.70 billion on October 6, before the latest leg of the selloff. The drop to $1.16 billion reflects XRP’s price decline from above $1.40 to $1.03.

For the forecast, ETF behavior is the strongest bullish signal in the data. Institutional holders who bought XRP through regulated funds over the past year are sitting through the drawdown. If flows turn positive again as the price stabilizes, ETF demand could absorb supply quickly. A shift to sustained outflows would remove that support.

Whales Keep Buying: 343,500 Wallets Above 10,000 XRP

On-chain data shows a split between retail fear and larger-holder accumulation.

Wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP have grown to 343,500, an increase of 16,815, or 5.15%, over the past nine months. That growth has continued through November, even as the price fell from $1.18 to $1.03 and retail sentiment turned bearish. Larger holders appear to be using the decline to add to positions.

The behavior fits a pattern seen in prior XRP corrections. Wallets in the 10,000 to 1 million token range tend to accumulate during drawdowns and distribute into rallies. Their growth during a nine-day losing streak suggests a cohort that views $1.00 as value rather than as a breakdown level.

Ripple’s own supply movements matter for the balance. Exchange wallets attributed to Ripple shrank by 133 million XRP in the week to October 31, ahead of the monthly escrow release. Ripple releases up to 1 billion XRP from escrow on the first of each month and typically returns most of that amount to new escrow contracts. The November 1 window opened access to more than 1 billion tokens, and any portion Ripple sells enters circulating supply.

The supply picture is steady. Circulating supply stands at 63.52 billion XRP against a maximum supply of 100 billion. The remaining tokens sit mostly in escrow, released on a predictable schedule. That predictability limits surprise supply shocks, but it also means a steady flow of tokens that buyers must absorb each month.

The divergence between whale accumulation and price weakness has a clear interpretation. Larger holders and ETF investors are absorbing supply, while leveraged traders and retail holders are selling. That combination tends to produce sharp liquidation lows followed by fast recoveries, exactly what Friday’s dip to $0.9975 and rebound to $1.0303 showed.

The risk is that accumulation slows if the price breaks lower. Whales add at levels they view as cheap, but a sustained break below $1.00 could change that calculus. The next on-chain signal to watch is whether wallet growth continues if XRP trades below $1.00 for more than a few hours.

For the forecast, whale accumulation supports the view that $1.00 is a demand zone. Combined with steady ETF holdings, it suggests that the selling pressure is coming from short-term traders, not long-term holders. That composition favors a rebound once forced selling ends.

Ripple’s Business Expands as XRP Lags

Ripple, the company most closely associated with XRP, continues to expand its business, but that growth has not translated into token price strength.

Ripple Prime, the institutional brokerage arm built on the $1.25 billion acquisition of Hidden Road, announced a leadership change on Friday. Founder Marc Asch will leave at the end of the year, and Noel Kimmel, already serving as vice president, will assume leadership of the business. Ripple Prime serves more than 300 institutions worldwide and has expanded into leveraged ETF financing, a market traditionally dominated by major Wall Street banks.

The leadership change does not alter the business strategy, but it adds a short-term question for investors who view Ripple Prime as a channel for XRP’s institutional use. The unit has processed large volumes of trades and financing without requiring XRP as a settlement asset, a divergence that has frustrated some token holders. Earlier proposals involving XRP as collateral and in lending products showed Ripple’s interest in expanding the token’s financial utility beyond cross-border payments.

Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD, also competes for attention. RLUSD runs on the XRP Ledger and Ethereum, and its growth adds transaction activity to the ledger, but stablecoin payments do not require holding XRP. The token’s value depends on demand for XRP itself, through payments, liquidity provisioning, trading and investment products.

The network continues to develop. XRP Ledger version 3.5.0 is scheduled for December 3, 2026, with upgrades designed to improve network performance. The ledger’s developers also plan a reset of two test networks, a routine step that does not affect the main network or existing XRP holdings. November 2026 also marks 15 years since the first code for the ledger was written in 2011.

The gap between corporate growth and token price is not new. Ripple’s acquisitions, licenses and product launches have expanded the company’s reach, but XRP’s price has followed broader crypto market cycles more closely than Ripple’s business milestones. That pattern held through 2026, as XRP fell from above $3 to $1.03 while Ripple added services.

For the forecast, Ripple’s business provides long-term support for the XRP ecosystem but limited near-term price impact. The December 3 ledger upgrade could draw attention, and any new product that requires XRP for settlement would matter more for the token. In the near term, macro and Bitcoin set the direction.

Regulation and Market Structure: The Legal Overhang Is Gone

XRP enters this correction without the legal overhang that shaped its price for years, and that changes how institutional investors treat the token.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s case against Ripple, filed in December 2020, ended with the court’s 2023 ruling that XRP sales on public exchanges did not constitute investment contracts, followed by the resolution of the remaining issues. That legal clarity opened the path to the spot ETFs that launched in November 2025 and to broader participation by U.S. institutions.

The ETF structure itself reflects a regulatory shift. The approval of generic listing standards for crypto exchange-traded products allowed multiple issuers to launch spot XRP funds in short order. Six spot funds now trade in the United States, run by issuers including Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Canary and others. That breadth of issuers gives XRP a distribution channel into brokerage accounts, retirement plans and advisory platforms that did not exist before 2025.

The legal clarity explains why XRP’s investor base looks different in this correction than in past ones. In prior selloffs, regulatory risk added a layer of uncertainty that drove sharper declines. Today, the decline reflects macro and liquidity conditions rather than doubts over the token’s legal status.

Market structure legislation remains a factor. U.S. lawmakers have worked on frameworks to define how digital assets are regulated and which agency oversees them. Clearer rules would reduce compliance risk for banks and asset managers that want to hold or trade XRP directly, rather than through ETFs. Progress on that front would support institutional demand.

The global picture also matters. XRP trades on exchanges across Asia, Europe and the Americas, and regulatory moves in major markets such as Japan, South Korea and the European Union affect liquidity. Rakuten Group disclosed a position in a U.S.-listed spot XRP ETF in its latest filing with the SEC, a sign that large Asian corporates are using U.S. products to gain exposure.

For the forecast, regulation is no longer a source of downside risk for XRP. That removes one of the factors that drove past crashes and supports the view that the current decline is cyclical. When macro conditions improve, XRP’s institutional channels are in place to capture renewed demand faster than in prior cycles.

Technical Picture: $1.00 Support, $1.19 SuperTrend and $1.26 Target

The chart shows XRP trading under heavy selling pressure, with every major trend indicator overhead and a clear battle at $1.00.

XRP trades below its 50-day exponential moving average at $1.26, its 100-day EMA at $1.29 and its 200-day EMA at $1.34. All three averages slope lower, and the token sits 18% below the 50-day line. The SuperTrend indicator sits at $1.19 and continues to track overhead, a sign that rallies remain vulnerable to selling until the price closes above it. XRP has also broken a downward trendline that had defined the decline from the October highs.

The support ladder is clear. The first level is $1.00, the psychological floor that held on a closing basis on Friday despite the intraday break to $0.9975. The second is $0.99, the lower boundary of a descending channel that has contained the decline. Below that, the next major support sits at $0.70, the level that marks the bottom of the broader range traders are watching.

Resistance stacks up above. The first level is $1.055, Friday’s 24-hour high. The second is $1.09, the level where early November rebounds failed. The third is $1.12, a level that changes the short-term picture if reclaimed. The fourth is $1.18 to $1.19, last week’s price and the SuperTrend line. The upside target sits at $1.26, the 50-day EMA. Above that, $1.29 and $1.34 mark the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, and $1.38 marks the top of the broader range.

The target is defined. A move from $1.03 to $1.26 is a gain of $0.23, or 22%. Reclaiming the 50-day EMA would signal that the nine-day decline has ended and that the trend has shifted from bearish to neutral.

Momentum indicators point to oversold conditions after nine straight down days. Oversold readings do not guarantee a bounce, but they raise the odds of a relief rally once selling pressure eases. Friday’s fast recovery from $0.9975 to $1.0303 was the first sign of buyers stepping in with size.

The technical verdict: bearish below $1.12, neutral between $1.12 and $1.19, constructive above $1.19, with $1.26 as the upside target and $0.99 as the line that, if broken on a closing basis, would open a deeper move toward $0.70.

XRP Versus Bitcoin and Ethereum: Relative Strength at the Lows

XRP’s performance against Bitcoin and Ethereum offers a clue to how the token might behave in a recovery.

Bitcoin fell 6.6% in 24 hours and traded below $68,000 on Friday. Ethereum lost the $2,000 level. XRP fell 0.6% to 2.2% over the same period depending on the price feed, and held above $1.00 on a closing basis. On the day, XRP outperformed both of the larger assets. Against Bitcoin, XRP gained 3.5% in 24 hours, trading at 0.00001481 BTC.

The weekly picture shows XRP falling in step with the market. XRP is down 13% to 14% on the week, in line with the declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The monthly decline of 23% to 24% reflects XRP’s slide from $1.33 in mid-October.

The relative strength on Friday matters because it came during the sharpest part of the selloff. When Bitcoin broke below $68,000, XRP dipped below $1.00 briefly but recovered faster than the larger tokens. That suggests buyers were more active at XRP’s key level than at Bitcoin’s.

The year-over-year comparison shows XRP’s deeper drawdown. XRP is down 56% from $2.33 a year ago. That decline reflects the unwinding of the late-2024 and 2025 rally, when XRP outperformed most large tokens on ETF anticipation and legal clarity. Some of that outperformance has reversed as the market priced in the ETFs and shifted focus to macro conditions.

Correlation remains high. XRP moves with Bitcoin on most days, and a sustained Bitcoin recovery is the single most important condition for an XRP rally. If Bitcoin reclaims $70,000 and stabilizes, XRP’s beta to Bitcoin suggests a move toward $1.12 to $1.19 would follow. A Bitcoin drop toward $60,000 would test XRP’s $0.99 channel support and likely break it.

Ethereum’s struggle below $2,000 adds a note of caution. Ethereum ETF outflows shrank sharply in recent weeks, a sign that institutional selling has slowed. If the same pattern holds for XRP, the reduced selling from funds could allow the price to stabilize faster than in prior corrections.

For the forecast, XRP’s relative strength at the lows supports the view that $1.00 is a meaningful demand zone. The token needs Bitcoin’s help to rally, but when that help arrives, XRP could outperform as it did on Friday.

Catalysts: Nvidia, the Fed and the December 3 Ledger Upgrade

XRP faces a cluster of events over the next four weeks that could break the downtrend or extend it.

Nvidia’s earnings on Tuesday are the first test. Technology stocks and crypto have traded together through 2026, and Friday’s selloff in both was tied in part to Nvidia’s leadership turmoil. Strong results and a steady outlook would ease fears over AI spending and support risk appetite. A miss or weak guidance would extend the risk-off move and push XRP toward $1.00 again.

Bitcoin’s response to the $68,000 level is the second. Bitcoin’s break below $70,000 drove much of this week’s selling across the sector. If Bitcoin stabilizes and reclaims $70,000, the pressure on XRP would ease. A drop toward $65,000 would pull XRP below $1.00.

The Fed’s December 8 and 9 meeting is the third. A quarter-point hike is fully priced. If the Fed delivers that and signals the cycle is near its end, the dollar and yields could peak, a setup that historically supports crypto. A half-point hike or hawkish guidance would extend the squeeze on risk assets.

The XRP Ledger’s version 3.5.0 upgrade, scheduled for December 3, is the fourth. Network upgrades rarely move prices on their own, but they draw attention to the ledger’s development and can support sentiment during a recovery.

ETF flows are the fifth. Spot XRP funds recorded no net flows on November 11 and 12 after two sessions of outflows. A return to inflows would signal that institutional buyers see value near $1.00. Sustained outflows would remove a key source of support.

Ripple’s escrow release on December 1 is the sixth. Ripple releases up to 1 billion XRP from escrow each month. The amount Ripple sells versus returns to escrow affects net supply. A smaller net release would support the price, while a larger one would add selling pressure.

Leverage resets are the seventh. Friday’s liquidation sweep cleared a large share of leveraged long positions. With less leverage in the system, future moves may be driven more by spot demand, which reduces the risk of cascading liquidations.

For the forecast, the catalysts tilt toward volatility. The first two weeks carry the most downside risk, with Nvidia and Bitcoin’s response to $68,000 setting the tone. The Fed meeting and ledger upgrade offer upside catalysts in early December.

Bull Case: The Path to $1.26

The upside case for XRP rests on five drivers, and the data supports several of them.

The first is exhaustion. Nine consecutive down days and a liquidation sweep below $1.00 suggest that forced sellers have been cleared. Friday’s recovery from $0.9975 to $1.0303 within hours showed spot buyers waiting below the round number. Selling streaks driven by leverage tend to end with exactly this kind of flush.

The second is ETF stability. Spot XRP funds hold 1.17 billion XRP and $1.16 billion in net assets, with $1.79 billion of cumulative inflows. Outflows of $18 million over two sessions are small against that base, and flows went flat on November 11 and 12. If flows turn positive, ETF demand could absorb supply quickly.

The third is whale accumulation. Wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP grew by 16,815 to 343,500 over nine months and kept growing through November. Larger holders are buying the decline, which provides a demand floor near $1.00.

The fourth is a macro turn. If the Fed delivers a quarter-point hike in December and signals the end of the cycle, the dollar and yields could peak. Bitcoin would likely rebound, and XRP would follow with its typical high beta.

The fifth is relative strength. XRP held $1.00 on a closing basis while Bitcoin fell 6.6% and Ethereum broke $2,000. That outperformance during the sharpest part of the selloff suggests XRP could lead in a recovery.

The price path is defined. The first target is $1.055, Friday’s high. The second is $1.09, the early November rejection level. The third is $1.12, the level that changes the short-term trend. The fourth is $1.19, the SuperTrend line. The primary upside target is $1.26, the 50-day EMA. A move from $1.03 to $1.26 is a gain of 22%.

Beyond $1.26, the 100-day EMA at $1.29 and the 200-day EMA at $1.34 represent the next resistance levels. A break above $1.34 would signal a broader trend reversal, with $1.38, the top of the broader range, the next objective.

The bull case does not require XRP-specific news. It requires the crypto market to stop falling and Bitcoin to stabilize. Given the leverage flush, steady ETF holdings and whale accumulation, that combination could arrive within weeks.

Bear Case: $0.99 Breaks and $0.70 Comes Into View

The downside case depends on the macro squeeze continuing and XRP’s $1.00 floor giving way.

The first risk is a deeper Bitcoin decline. Bitcoin trades below $68,000 after a 6.6% daily drop. If it falls toward $60,000 to $65,000, XRP would almost certainly break $1.00 and the $0.99 channel support.

The second risk is a hawkish Fed. A half-point hike in December or guidance that more hikes are coming would push yields and the dollar higher, extending the squeeze on risk assets.

The third risk is ETF outflows. Spot XRP funds lost $18 million over two sessions this week. Sustained outflows would remove a key source of demand and signal that institutional holders are losing patience.

The fourth risk is supply. Ripple’s monthly escrow releases add tokens to circulation, and in a weak market those tokens face fewer buyers. A larger net release on December 1 would add pressure.

The fifth risk is a failed AI trade. Nvidia reports Tuesday after its chief executive resigned. A weak report would extend the selloff in technology stocks, which crypto has tracked closely through 2026.

The sixth risk is a psychological break. The $1.00 level carries weight beyond technical analysis. A sustained break below it could trigger selling from holders who viewed $1.00 as a floor, turning a liquidation wick into a trend.

The price path is clear. A daily close below $0.99 triggers the bearish setup. The first target is $0.90. The second is $0.80. The third is $0.70, the bottom of the broader range. A move from $1.03 to $0.70 is a decline of 32%.

The bear case would accelerate if Bitcoin breaks $65,000, if Nvidia disappoints on Tuesday, or if ETF outflows exceed $50 million in a week. Any two of those together would put $0.70 in play.

The bear case also has a timing element. Each failed test of $1.00 draws in fewer buyers, and a third test inside two weeks would carry higher odds of a break than Friday’s first one. A weekly close below $1.00 would be the first since August and would mark the end of the range that has held since the spring. Holders who bought the ETFs near $1.40 to $1.70 in the autumn would then sit on losses above 30%, a level where patience tends to give way to redemptions.

Bear Case: $0.99 Breaks and $0.70 Comes Into View

The downside case depends on the macro squeeze continuing and XRP’s $1.00 floor giving way.

The first risk is a deeper Bitcoin decline. Bitcoin trades below $68,000 after a 6.6% daily drop. If it falls toward $60,000 to $65,000, XRP would almost certainly break $1.00 and the $0.99 channel support.

The second risk is a hawkish Fed. A half-point hike in December or guidance that more hikes are coming would push yields and the dollar higher, extending the squeeze on risk assets.

The third risk is ETF outflows. Spot XRP funds lost $18 million over two sessions this week. Sustained outflows would remove a key source of demand and signal that institutional holders are losing patience.

The fourth risk is supply. Ripple’s monthly escrow releases add tokens to circulation, and in a weak market those tokens face fewer buyers. A larger net release on December 1 would add pressure.

The fifth risk is a failed AI trade. Nvidia reports Tuesday after its chief executive resigned. A weak report would extend the selloff in technology stocks, which crypto has tracked closely through 2026.

The sixth risk is a psychological break. The $1.00 level carries weight beyond technical analysis. A sustained break below it could trigger selling from holders who viewed $1.00 as a floor, turning a liquidation wick into a trend.

The price path is clear. A daily close below $0.99 triggers the bearish setup. The first target is $0.90. The second is $0.80. The third is $0.70, the bottom of the broader range. A move from $1.03 to $0.70 is a decline of 32%.

The bear case would accelerate if Bitcoin breaks $65,000, if Nvidia disappoints on Tuesday, or if ETF outflows exceed $50 million in a week. Any two of those together would put $0.70 in play.

The bear case also has a timing element. Each failed test of $1.00 draws in fewer buyers, and a third test inside two weeks would carry higher odds of a break than Friday’s first one. A weekly close below $1.00 would be the first since August and would mark the end of the range that has held since the spring. Holders who bought the ETFs near $1.40 to $1.70 in the autumn would then sit on losses above 30%, a level where patience tends to give way to redemptions.

Verdict: Bearish Below $1.12, Upside Target $1.26 on a $1.00 Hold

XRP enters the weekend at $1.03 after a ninth straight down day and a brief break below $1.00 that touched $0.9975. The token is down 13% on the week, 23% on the month, 56% on the year and 72% from its all-time high of $3.65. All three major exponential moving averages sit overhead, at $1.26, $1.29 and $1.34, and the SuperTrend line at $1.19 caps rallies.

The near-term bias stays bearish while XRP trades below $1.12. The macro backdrop, with a December Fed hike fully priced, a 19-month high in the dollar, a 10-year Treasury yield at 5.16%, Bitcoin below $68,000 and $14.2 billion of stablecoin outflows, argues against a quick recovery.

The institutional base is holding. Spot XRP ETFs, which turned one year old on Friday, hold 1.17 billion XRP and $1.16 billion in net assets, with $1.79 billion of cumulative inflows. Outflows this week totaled $18 million, a fraction of that base. Wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP grew to 343,500. Those holders have not capitulated, and their presence explains why XRP recovered so quickly from below $1.00.

The levels are defined. On the downside, $1.00 and $0.99 are the immediate supports, with $0.90, $0.80 and $0.70 below. On the upside, $1.055 is Friday’s high, $1.09 and $1.12 the first resistance levels, $1.19 the SuperTrend, and $1.26 the upside target, a 22% gain from current levels.

The catalysts are clustered. Nvidia reports Tuesday. Ripple’s escrow release lands December 1. The XRP Ledger upgrade arrives December 3. The Fed decides December 8 and 9. Each of those events can move XRP by 5% to 10%.

The verdict for traders: XRP is bearish below $1.12, neutral up to $1.19, and targets $1.26 once Bitcoin stabilizes and the $1.00 floor holds through the next test. A daily close below $0.99 would invalidate the setup and open a move toward $0.70. Until then, the combination of a leverage flush, steady ETF holdings and whale accumulation makes $1.00 the line where the next rally is most likely to start. A daily close above $1.12 would confirm that the nine-day decline has ended, and a close above $1.19 would put the 50-day EMA at $1.26 within reach before the Fed meets on December 8 and 9.

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