XRP-USD Slides to $1.028, Eyes $1.21 Upside Target as $1.80B ETF Base Waits for New Buyers

XRP is trading right at the edge of its most important price level. XRP-USD traded at $1.028 by late afternoon in Europe, down 4.84% over 24 hours. During the morning flush that sent Bitcoin below $72,000 and Ether below $2,000, XRP came within inches of $1.00. At $1.028, the token sits 2.8 cents above the round number that traders and longer-term holders treat as the dividing line between a pullback and a breakdown.

The weekly damage is heavy. XRP is down 19.35% over seven days. A week ago, on November 6, it traded at $1.16. Two days before that, it held $1.21. The token has lost 18 cents since November 4, about 15% in eight days, and has fallen on most sessions since the start of the month.

The longer view is worse. XRP topped near $1.60 in October and has dropped 35.8% since. The all-time high of $3.66 came on July 18, 2025, so the current price sits 71.9% below the peak. Market value stands at $65.24 billion on 63.52 billion tokens in circulation. The fully diluted value, including tokens still locked in Ripple’s escrow, is $103.54 billion. XRP ranks sixth among cryptocurrencies by market value.

The trigger on Thursday came from outside crypto. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang resigned at 8:59 a.m. ET, and the AI-led selloff spread into every risk asset. Bitcoin fell 3.41% to $71,393. Ether dropped below $2,000. XRP followed, falling harder than Bitcoin, as altcoins do in risk-off moves. Daily momentum readings sank to an RSI of 23, deep in oversold territory.

The thesis of this forecast is direct. XRP’s institutional bid has gone quiet. Spot XRP ETFs posted 13 straight weeks of inflows from July to early October and built up $1.80 billion in cumulative net inflows. Since then, flows have stalled and turned negative. Without ETF buying, exchange traders set the price, and they have been sellers. The $1 level is where long-term holders and whales have stepped in before. If ETF demand returns, XRP has a clear path back up. If it does not, $1 is unlikely to hold.

The upside target is $1.21, the level XRP held on November 4 before the latest leg lower. Getting there requires the token to hold $1, reclaim $1.16 and see the first day of solid ETF inflows since September.

Spot XRP ETFs: From 13 Straight Weeks of Inflows to Zero

The XRP ETF story has flipped in six weeks. U.S. spot XRP ETFs took in net inflows every week from the week ended July 17 to the week ended October 9, 2026, a 13-week streak. That run lifted cumulative net inflows to about $1.80 billion. In September alone, the funds brought in $121.4 million. Wall Street was building a position.

The streak ended in October. October net inflows fell to $18.8 million, the lowest monthly total since March, when the funds saw net outflows. November has turned negative. On November 2, the funds posted a $529,500 outflow, all from Canary’s XRP ETF (XRPC). Then they logged zero net flows on November 3, 4, 5 and 6. For an entire week, not a single dollar of new money came in.

The selling picked up this week. On November 9, XRP ETFs recorded $10.42 million in net outflows. The Bitwise XRP ETF led with $9.40 million leaving, and XRPC lost another $811,400. Across two sessions, the funds shed about $18 million. On Wednesday, November 11, they again recorded zero net flows, with $26.58 million in trading volume but no net creations or redemptions.

Net assets have shrunk faster than flows. Total net assets fell to $1.19 billion, equal to 1.80% of XRP’s market value. On October 30, net assets stood at $1.42 billion. The gap comes mostly from price, not redemptions: the funds still hold most of the XRP they bought, but that XRP is worth less. Cumulative net inflows remain near $1.80 billion, so the funds have paid in more than they are now worth.

The fund-level data shows where demand built up. The Bitwise XRP ETF has $672 million in cumulative net inflows. Canary’s XRPC has $484 million. Both funds are now seeing redemptions after months of steady buying.

The anniversary adds a symbolic checkpoint. November 13 marks one year since the first spot XRP ETF launched. The funds’ one-year total of $1.80 billion in cumulative inflows is a solid start for a new product. But the recent stall raises the question of whether that demand was a one-time allocation or the start of a lasting institutional bid.

For the forecast, ETF flows are the clearest signal to watch. The first day of meaningful inflows since September would show that institutions see value near $1. Continued outflows would leave XRP dependent on exchange traders, who have been net sellers.

The $1 Line: August Low at $0.9852 Is the Last Support

The $1 level is the center of every XRP trade right now. It is a round number where options, stop-loss orders and long-term buy orders all cluster. XRP traded as low as $1.0364 earlier on Thursday before the afternoon flush pushed it closer to $1.00. At $1.028, the price is 2.8% above the line.

The August low sits just below. On the daily chart, the next major support is the August low at $0.9852. That level marks the bottom of XRP’s summer trading range. A break below $1 would put $0.9852 immediately in play, and a break of $0.9852 would take XRP to levels not seen in more than a year.

Some traders see value in the zone. Long-term accumulation interest runs from $1 down to $0.70. Traders who share that view will buy aggressively near $1. But they also warn that a confirmed break below $1 could bring another 30% to 40% drop. Round numbers act as floors until they break, and when they break, they often turn into ceilings.

Momentum is deeply oversold. The daily RSI reading of 23 is one of the lowest of the year. Readings that low usually lead to a bounce within days, because sellers run out of supply at those levels. But oversold conditions can persist in strong downtrends. A bounce from an RSI of 23 does not confirm a bottom.

The trend indicator shows how strong the selling is. The average directional index reads 45, signaling a strong downward trend. ADX readings above 40 mark powerful trends that tend to keep going until a catalyst breaks them. XRP has fallen on most sessions since October, and the trend has not yet shown signs of exhaustion.

The October high frames the scale of the drop. XRP fell from near $1.60 in October to $1.028, a 35.8% decline. A typical bear-market rally retraces 38% to 50% of the prior decline. That would put a relief bounce in the $1.25 to $1.31 range. Reaching $1.21, the upside target, would retrace about 32% of the drop, well within that normal range.

For the forecast, $1 decides the next move. A daily close above $1.036, Thursday’s earlier low, would show buyers defending the line and set up a test of $1.16. A daily close below $1 would open $0.9852 quickly and put the bear case in control.

Binance Outflow: 418.5 Million XRP Left the Exchange on November 4

On-chain data shows a split between price and supply. On November 4, 418.5 million XRP left Binance, worth about $540 million at the time. It was the exchange’s largest single-day XRP outflow in nine months. Coins leaving an exchange usually mean holders are moving them into private wallets for long-term storage, which reduces the supply available to sell.

The outflow did not lift the price. XRP fell to $1.21 that day and kept falling. US spot XRP ETFs recorded zero net flows on November 3, 4 and 5, so the exchange outflow came without any matching institutional buying. Coins left Binance, but no new demand stepped in to push the price higher.

The Binance hack shapes that data. On October 29, attackers drained $6.3 billion from Binance hot wallets across ten blockchains, including XRP Ledger. Binance paused withdrawals and began restoring them on November 3. XRP Ledger withdrawals were among the services reopened. Part of the November 4 outflow likely reflected users who had been waiting to withdraw, not fresh long-term buying.

The stolen tokens are a separate risk. None of the stolen XRP has been frozen. Unlike stablecoins, which issuers can freeze at the contract level, XRP has no central freeze function for stolen tokens. Hackers have already swapped some stolen tokens into Bitcoin. Each conversion adds selling pressure on XRP.

Exchange balances matter for the forecast. When large amounts of XRP leave exchanges and sit in private wallets, the float available for trading shrinks. A smaller float means any new demand has a bigger impact on price. If ETF demand returns while exchange balances stay low, XRP could move up fast. Without new demand, a smaller float does not help the price.

Whale activity is mixed. Large-wallet participation has grown even as ETF demand stalled. Some large holders treat the $1 zone as an accumulation area. Others are selling into any bounce. The balance between those groups sets the near-term direction.

For the forecast, the Binance outflow is a long-term positive that has not yet produced a short-term effect. Lower exchange supply sets up a sharper rally once demand returns. Until then, the stolen-token overhang and the lack of ETF buying keep the price under pressure.

Ripple and RLUSD: $2.57 Billion Stablecoin, Robinhood and BNY

Ripple’s business keeps growing even as XRP falls. Ripple USD (RLUSD), the company’s dollar-backed stablecoin, launched in December 2024 and has reached a market value of $2.57 billion. Nearly $1 billion of that supply sits on the XRP Ledger. The stablecoin’s growth gives the network more activity and more use cases.

The partnerships are expanding. In late October, Ripple and Robinhood expanded their partnership to bring RLUSD to retail and institutional markets. Robinhood plans to use the stablecoin on the XRP Ledger for institutional settlement. Ripple also expanded its work with BNY on digital asset custody. It partnered with working-capital platform C2FO to bring financing and settlement for C2FO’s new Instant Pay service onto the XRP Ledger using RLUSD.

Ripple received U.S. approval to start Ripple National Trust Bank, a federally chartered trust bank. A bank charter lets Ripple offer custody and settlement services under federal oversight, which makes it easier for banks and asset managers to work with the company.

On-chain activity shows the stablecoin in use. On November 2, Ripple’s RLUSD treasury minted 110,565,832 RLUSD in a single transaction on the XRP Ledger, one of the largest mints recorded on the network. Large mints usually come in response to demand from institutions or exchanges that need stablecoin liquidity.

The infrastructure keeps improving. The XRP Ledger activated Token Escrow, known as XLS-85, in February 2026. It extends the ledger’s native escrow function, which used to be limited to XRP, to stablecoins and tokenized assets. That lets RLUSD and other tokens be locked on-chain for staged releases and conditional settlement.

The link between RLUSD and XRP matters for the forecast. XRP remains the ledger’s gas and reserve asset. Every transaction on the XRP Ledger burns a small amount of XRP as a fee, and every escrowed asset requires an XRP reserve. More stablecoin activity means more demand for XRP as gas and reserves. But that demand is small relative to XRP’s $65 billion market value, so RLUSD growth alone cannot carry the price.

Network activity remains steady. The XRP Ledger processed about 3.93 million transactions and had 60,898 active addresses in a 24-hour period on November 12.

For the forecast, Ripple’s business provides a fundamental floor that does not depend on speculative flows. It supports long-term demand but does not offset short-term ETF and exchange selling.

Escrow Releases: 1 Billion XRP Each Month

Ripple’s escrow schedule adds steady supply. The company releases 1 billion XRP from escrow each month under a schedule set years ago. The release is mechanical, and Ripple usually puts most of the released XRP back into new escrow contracts. The net amount that reaches the market is far smaller than 1 billion.

The gap between circulating and total supply shows the size of escrow. XRP has 63.52 billion tokens in circulation, worth $65.24 billion. The fully diluted value, which counts all tokens including those in escrow, stands at $103.54 billion. That means about 37% of total supply sits outside circulation, mostly in Ripple’s escrow and corporate holdings.

Net escrow flows matter more than gross releases. Traders should watch net escrow flows and transfers to exchanges, not the headline 1 billion release, for real supply pressure. When Ripple re-locks most of the release, the net addition to the float is modest. When Ripple moves released XRP to exchanges or institutional buyers, the supply pressure is real.

The escrow schedule cuts both ways for sentiment. Critics argue the steady release keeps a ceiling on XRP’s price. Supporters argue the transparency of the schedule removes uncertainty, since everyone knows exactly when and how much is released. Either way, the release is priced in. It does not explain the sharp November drop.

Ripple’s use of released XRP has shifted toward institutional channels. Ripple supplies XRP for its payments business, which uses the token for cross-border liquidity. Institutional sales through structured channels add less direct pressure than open-market selling on exchanges.

The supply math frames the long-term picture. At $1.028 and 63.52 billion circulating, XRP’s market value sits at $65.24 billion. If all escrowed tokens eventually reach circulation, the market value at the same price would be $103.54 billion. That gap means long-term holders face gradual dilution, which has to be offset by rising demand.

For the forecast, escrow is a background factor. It adds predictable supply that the market has absorbed for years. It does not drive short-term price moves. The ETF flows, exchange balances and macro backdrop matter far more for the next several weeks.

Derivatives: Liquidations Light, Open Interest Down 2.93%

XRP’s derivatives market shows deleveraging rather than panic. Over a recent 24-hour stretch, long liquidations totaled $2.95 million, 72% of all XRP liquidations. The price held flat over that period while open interest fell 2.93%. Traders were closing positions rather than getting forced out.

Thursday’s flush was bigger across crypto. Total crypto liquidations hit $530 million in a day, with $222 million wiped out in one hour as Bitcoin fell to $72,000 and Ether broke $2,000. Longs accounted for $217 million of the one-hour total. Close to 110,000 traders were liquidated. XRP was not the biggest contributor, but it moved with the rest of the market.

Falling open interest is a mixed signal. When open interest drops while price falls, it means traders are closing leveraged positions and stepping back. That reduces the risk of a cascade of forced selling, because less leverage remains. But it also shows less speculative interest. Traders are not betting on a bounce.

The low liquidation figures for XRP specifically show the token’s leverage was already reduced. Earlier selloffs in October and early November had already flushed out many leveraged longs. Thursday’s move pushed XRP lower without the kind of forced-selling cascade that hits more leveraged markets.

The setup favors a squeeze if sentiment turns. With leverage reduced and longs mostly cleared out, any short positions built during the decline become fuel for a rally. If XRP bounces off $1 and shorts rush to cover, the token could move sharply toward $1.10 or $1.16. Short squeezes in oversold markets tend to be fast.

Funding rates are the signal to watch. Negative funding, where shorts pay longs to keep positions open, has marked local bottoms in past cycles. A move to negative funding near $1 would show shorts crowding in at the bottom, the classic setup for a squeeze.

The derivatives picture fits the broader crypto pattern. Bitcoin futures open interest declined about 2.9% and volume dropped 27.6% before Thursday’s shock. The whole market was deleveraging slowly before the Nvidia news triggered a sharp flush.

For the forecast, derivatives show XRP is clearing out speculation, not collapsing. A market with lower leverage and oversold momentum has the conditions for a bounce. The missing piece is a spot buyer, which most likely means ETF demand.

Macro: 10-Year at 5.07%, Dollar at 103.08, Fed Hike Odds at 89%

XRP’s slide is part of a broad selloff in assets that pay no yield. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.07% on Thursday. The benchmark cleared 5% in mid-September, its highest since July 2007, and hit a closing high of 5.31% on October 5. Every move above 5% has pressured crypto, and XRP has fallen with Bitcoin each time.

The U.S. inflation data drove the latest leg. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported October CPI up 0.4% and core CPI up 0.3%, both a tenth above forecast. Core has printed 0.3% for three straight months, a 3.7% annualized pace. Futures now show an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike on December 9 and an 11% chance of a 50-basis-point move. Expectations of higher U.S. rates weighed on crypto sentiment through the week.

The dollar adds pressure. The Dollar Index hit 103.08 on Thursday, a 19-month high. A stronger dollar tightens global liquidity and pushes down every asset priced in dollars. Gold fell 2.90% to $3,871.59, almost the same as XRP’s move. When the haven metal and the risk asset fall together, the driver is the dollar and real yields.

The labor market keeps the Fed on its path. The Labor Department reported jobless claims rose to 200,000 for the week ended November 7, with continuing claims down to 1.697 million. A tight labor market gives the Fed no reason to slow its hikes.

Bitcoin sets the tone. XRP’s correlation with Bitcoin remains high. Bitcoin fell 3.41% to $71,393 on Thursday, on track for its sixth straight weekly decline. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost $1.44 billion over five sessions. When Bitcoin’s institutional demand weakens, XRP’s weakens too. XRP’s own ETF stall mirrors the Bitcoin ETF outflows.

The AI link drives risk appetite. Crypto has tracked AI equities closely. The Nvidia shock that sent the Nasdaq down 0.63% hit crypto with it. Nvidia’s earnings on November 17 will shape AI sentiment, and crypto will likely follow.

For the forecast, macro sets the ceiling. XRP can bounce on oversold conditions and ETF flows, but a sustained move to $1.21 and beyond likely needs the 10-year to fall back under 5%. That requires a soft PPI print and a Fed that signals December ends its hiking cycle.

XRP vs. Bitcoin and the Altcoin Tape

XRP has fallen harder than Bitcoin through the November selloff. XRP is down 19.35% over seven days, while Bitcoin is down 10.16% over the same period. XRP’s October-to-now decline of 35.8% is deeper than Bitcoin’s. In a risk-off market, investors cut higher-beta assets first, and XRP has been treated as higher beta.

The altcoin tape confirms the pattern. On Thursday, BNB fell 4.18% to $651.51. Solana dropped 3.52% to $80.94. Ether lost 2.70% to $2,000.44. Bitcoin fell 3.00% to $71,333. XRP’s 3.96% drop to $1.02 put it in the middle of the altcoin pack, worse than Bitcoin but in line with the other large altcoins. Only TRON held near flat.

Bitcoin dominance stands near 60%. That level is high but not rising sharply, which means money is not rotating from altcoins into Bitcoin as a relative haven. Money is leaving the whole crypto market, with altcoins losing faster. Total crypto market value fell 4.57% to $2.43 trillion.

Altcoin ETF flows paint the same picture across the board. On November 11, Solana, Hyperliquid, Zcash and Near spot ETFs recorded net outflows. XRP, Dogecoin, Chainlink, Avalanche, Hedera, Litecoin, Polkadot, BNB and TRON ETFs recorded zero net flows. No altcoin ETF took in money that day. Institutional demand for altcoins has stalled across the category.

XRP’s ETF base is larger than most altcoins. With $1.19 billion in net assets and $1.80 billion in cumulative inflows, XRP has the biggest altcoin ETF footprint after Ether. That makes XRP the altcoin most dependent on ETF flows, and the one with the most to gain if those flows return.

The rotation pattern in past cycles favors XRP on the way up. In crypto recoveries, Bitcoin usually leads, followed by Ether and then large altcoins. XRP has historically had sharp rallies once Bitcoin stabilizes, partly because its retail base is large and quick to buy back in. A Bitcoin bounce above $75,600 would likely give XRP room to move toward $1.16 and $1.21.

For the forecast, XRP’s path depends on Bitcoin’s. If Bitcoin holds $70,000 and recovers, XRP’s oversold conditions and lower exchange supply set up a fast rebound. If Bitcoin breaks $70,000, XRP will likely break $1 and test $0.9852.

Technical Structure: RSI at 23, ADX at 45 and the $1.16 Ceiling

The chart shows a deeply oversold market in a strong downtrend. At $1.028, XRP trades well below its October high near $1.60 and below every major moving average. The daily RSI sits at 23, one of the lowest readings of the year. The ADX reads 45, signaling a strong downward trend.

The support map is short. The first support is $1.00, the round number. Below it, the August low at $0.9852 is the last major support from the summer range. A break below $0.9852 would take XRP into territory not seen in more than a year, with the next zone near $0.91 at the bottom of the weekly projected range.

The resistance map is clear. Thursday’s earlier low at $1.0364 is the first resistance, now acting as a ceiling. Above it, $1.05 marks the level XRP held for most of the morning. Then $1.16, the November 6 level, and $1.21, the November 4 level. The $1.21 level is the upside target.

The short-term range projection frames the next week. XRP is projected to trade between $0.9133 and $1.2215 over the next seven days. That is a wide range, reflecting high volatility, and it puts both the $0.9852 support and the $1.21 target within reach.

Oversold readings set up a bounce. An RSI of 23 shows sellers are exhausted at current levels. In past selloffs, readings in the low 20s have led to relief rallies of 10% to 20% within a week or two. A 17.7% bounce from $1.028 would take XRP to the $1.21 target.

The strong ADX warns against expecting a quick reversal. An ADX of 45 means the downtrend has momentum. Relief rallies in strong downtrends often fail at resistance and lead to new lows. A bounce to $1.16 or $1.21 could meet heavy selling from traders who bought higher and want to exit near breakeven.

The weekly structure matters. XRP has made lower highs and lower lows since October. Breaking that pattern needs a weekly close above a prior high. The first weekly level that would signal a trend change is $1.21, the November 4 high. That is why $1.21 serves as both the upside target and the line that would shift the trend.

For the forecast, $1 decides the next move. A hold above $1 and a reclaim of $1.0364 would set up a bounce to $1.16 and $1.21. A daily close below $1 would put $0.9852 and then $0.91 in play.

Key Catalysts: ETF Anniversary, PPI Friday, Fed December 9

The calendar for the next four weeks is full, and several events can move XRP. The first comes Friday, November 13, the first anniversary of the first spot XRP ETF. The date gives the market a natural checkpoint to judge the funds’ first year. A strong flow day around the anniversary would signal renewed institutional interest. More outflows would confirm that demand has faded.

U.S. October PPI lands Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. A soft print would ease rate fears and help all risk assets, including XRP. A hot print would push the 10-year yield higher and likely send XRP below $1. Economists already estimate core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, rose 0.4% in October.

Daily ETF flows are the ongoing catalyst. Each daily flow report from the XRP ETFs shows whether institutions are buying or selling near $1. A return to positive flows after the November stall would be the strongest bullish signal XRP could get. The Bitwise XRP ETF and Canary’s XRPC are the funds to watch.

Nvidia’s earnings on November 17 will shape the AI trade. Crypto has followed AI equities this year. A strong Nvidia report under interim CEO Colette Kress would steady risk appetite. A weak one would extend Thursday’s selloff.

The XRP Ledger’s Testnet and Devnet reset on November 25 is a technical event, aimed at improving server stability. It does not affect the main network but shows ongoing development activity.

The November jobs report on December 4 and the Fed decision on December 9 are the biggest macro events. A 25-basis-point Fed hike with a signal that December ends the cycle would weaken the dollar and lift crypto. A 50-basis-point hike would pressure all risk assets.

Ripple news adds upside risk. New RLUSD partnerships, further progress on Ripple National Trust Bank or expansion of institutional lending on the XRP Ledger would support long-term sentiment. Proposed institutional lending could create new demand for XRP as collateral.

The stolen Binance tokens add downside risk. Further swaps of stolen XRP into Bitcoin would add selling pressure.

For the forecast, the ETF anniversary and Friday’s PPI are the most immediate tests. The Fed meeting on December 9 is the event most likely to set XRP’s direction into year-end.

XRP Price Forecast and Verdict: $1.00 Floor, $1.21 Upside Target

The forecast breaks into three paths. The bear path is a daily close below $1.00. That would break the round-number floor, open the August low at $0.9852 and, if that fails, put $0.91 in play. A confirmed break below $1 could bring a 30% to 40% drop. The triggers are continued ETF outflows around the November 13 anniversary, a hot PPI print Friday, Bitcoin breaking below $70,000 or further selling of stolen Binance tokens.

The base path is a range between $1.00 and $1.16. XRP has fallen 19.35% in a week, and its RSI of 23 shows exhaustion. Markets that oversold usually bounce to test broken support, here at $1.0364 and $1.05, before deciding direction. The range holds as long as ETF flows stay near zero, Bitcoin holds above $70,000 and the 10-year Treasury hovers near 5%.

The bull path is a reclaim of $1.0364, then $1.05, then $1.16, which opens the $1.21 upside target, the level XRP held on November 4. That is a 17.7% move from $1.028, within the range of past relief rallies from deeply oversold levels. Three things need to happen. Spot XRP ETFs need their first solid day of inflows since September. Bitcoin needs to stabilize and reclaim $75,600. And the Fed needs to signal that December ends its hikes, easing the pressure on non-yielding assets.

The supply picture supports a bounce once demand returns. The 418.5 million XRP that left Binance on November 4 reduced the float available to sell. Leverage has come out of the derivatives market, with open interest down and liquidations light. Shorts built during the decline become fuel for a squeeze. Ripple’s RLUSD has grown to $2.57 billion, and its partnerships with Robinhood, BNY and C2FO add steady network activity.

The verdict on XRP is bearish in the short term, with a defined floor and recovery path. Thursday’s slide to $1.028, a 4.84% daily loss and 19.35% weekly drop, confirms that XRP is trading as a high-beta altcoin with no institutional bid behind it. Spot XRP ETFs, which drew $1.80 billion over 13 straight weeks into October, have gone a full week without a single inflow and then turned to outflows. The fuel is a macro backdrop of 5.07% Treasury yields, a 103.08 dollar and 89% odds of a December Fed hike. The $1 floor decides whether this is a deep pullback or a new leg toward $0.9852 and below. The $1.21 upside target stays valid, but it needs ETF demand to return, and until that happens, every bounce toward $1.16 meets sellers waiting to exit.

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