XRP Price Forecast; XRP-USD Under Pressure At $1.75 As Bears Target $1.70 Support

XRP-USD: Critical Reset Between Structural Accumulation And Forced Deleveraging

Macro shock and risk-off backdrop for XRP-USD around $1.75

XRP-USD is trading roughly in the $1.74–$1.76 band after a broad, violent risk-off move that crushed every risk asset at once. Within hours of the latest US session, a global liquidation event erased trillions of dollars in market value: gold and silver combined wiped close to $4 trillion in an hour, the S&P 500 dropped about 1.3%, cutting roughly $800 billion of equity value, and Bitcoin (BTC-USD) slid almost 6% to trade below $83,000. Crypto is not selling off alone, it is being repriced inside a global deleveraging triggered by high leverage, renewed US–Iran tensions and a Fed that held rates and refused to give risk assets any relief.

Against that backdrop, XRP-USD losing around 6% in 24 hours to about $1.75, roughly 4% month-to-date and around 17% from recent cycle highs near $2.10–$2.20 is not a local story. It is the behavior of a high-beta asset in a macro stress test. The token now trades below $2.00, well under the earlier spike above $3.00, and is boxed between short-term support in the $1.70–$1.75 zone and a heavy resistance shelf between $1.81 and $2.00.

XRPL resilience: XRP ledger closing blocks every 3–4 seconds through the storm

While XRP-USD is repriced like a leveraged macro proxy, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is acting as if the market drama does not exist. Validators continue to reach consensus and close new ledgers every 3–4 seconds, validating and finalizing transactions globally with no observable degradation in uptime, latency or throughput.

That separation is important. Network performance is not tied to XRP-USD price, not tied to central-bank decisions and not tied to geopolitical stress. The ledger is behaving as a neutral, borderless, censorship-resistant settlement layer rather than a speculative toy. That is the fundamental base: a live, production network functioning as global financial infrastructure even while the associated token trades like a high-beta risk asset.

XRP-USD derivatives: $57M liquidations, shrinking open interest and a cleaner leverage profile

In the derivatives complex, XRP-USD is going through a textbook cleansing. On the latest leg down, leveraged traders absorbed the largest long wipeout in three months: around $57 million in XRP positions liquidated in a single session. At the same time, futures Open Interest fell from about $3.46 billion to $3.21 billion, a clear signal that traders are not re-leveraging into the dip but closing risk and stepping back.

This sits on top of an earlier structural reset. During the October crash, around $19 billion in leveraged positions were vaporized across crypto. For XRP specifically, estimated leverage ratios on major venues slid toward 0.18, one of the lowest points of the cycle. That collapse in leverage strips out fast money that previously fueled parabolic upside moves. It also means that in the current leg, downside is being driven more by genuine de-risking than by reflexive, over-levered cascades.

The message from derivatives is blunt: speculators are not gone, but they are smaller, less aggressive and far less willing to chase upside. For XRP-USD, that reduces fragility in the long term, but it also means rallies cannot rely on the same mechanical short-squeeze machinery that powered earlier spikes.

ETF flows and fund positioning: from $93M daily outflow to $1.17B cumulative inflow in XRP

Fund flows tell a two-layer story. At the surface, XRP ETFs just recorded their worst daily print since launch: nearly $93 million net outflow in a single day, chopping cumulative inflows back to roughly $1.17 billion and leaving net assets under management near $1.21 billion. That is aggressive capital flight and it matches the broader risk-off tone.

Zooming out, the picture flips. Over the prior months, spot XRP products in the US were consistently pulling money in: about $666 million of net inflows in November, around $499 million in December, and another $91.7 million already in January, even as the token traded down around 4% over the month. Over the same timeframe, Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $278 million in January net outflows and more than $4 billion drained toward the end of 2025.

Structurally, that means institutional and quasi-institutional players were still allocating to XRP while they were dialing back BTC exposure. The latest $93 million outflow day is a sentiment shock, not the whole story. It tells you how fast money reacts to a macro scare, but it does not erase three months of steady accumulation.

On-chain XRP structure: large wallets add 42 new 1M+ accounts while exchange supply halves

On-chain data cuts through the noise. Since the beginning of the month, XRP-USD has dropped roughly 4%, but large-balance behavior has turned upward. Addresses holding at least 1,000,000 XRP increased by 42 in January, taking the count to around 2,016 wallets and ending a four-month decline in big-holder numbers.

At the same time, centralized exchanges have seen their XRP inventory collapse by more than 50%, from approximately 3.76 billion tokens to 1.64 billion, the lowest level since 2017. That is not a cosmetic change. It means roughly 2.12 billion XRP has been pulled off trading venues into self-custody, institutional custody or OTC arrangements.

Trading flow confirms an environment where supply is tightening while speculative demand is drained. Taker buy volume on major exchanges has cratered by about 95.7%, from roughly $5.8 billion to $250 million, and the taker buy-sell ratio has stayed negative. Sellers have been willing to hit bids, buyers have not been willing to lift offers, and yet the amount of XRP actually sitting on exchanges has kept falling.

That combination – fewer coins available to trade, fewer aggressive buyers, but steady accumulation in large private wallets and ETF wrappers – is classic stealth accumulation behavior. It does not guarantee immediate upside. It does say that while price trends down, ownership is quietly migrating from weak, short-term hands to stronger balance sheets that are willing to ride volatility.

Profit taking and distribution: $220M daily realized gains and a $721M seven-year wallet exit

The selling pressure is not coming from panicked newcomers, it is coming from investors who are very deep in the money. One seven-year wallet that accumulated XRP at around $0.40 dumped more than $721 million worth of tokens near the $2.00 region. On-chain realized profit metrics show the same pattern at scale: daily realized profits have surged around 240% since September, from roughly $65 million to close to $220 million per day.

These holders are not capitulating, they are distributing strategically after multi-year gains of 300%–400%+. When that cohort hits the sell button into strength, it creates heavy, persistent supply that overwhelms headline-driven demand from newer buyers. The result is exactly what you see now: fundamentals improving on paper, yet XRP-USD grinding lower as early capital exits at prices that still look attractive compared with their entry.

Technical structure in XRP-USD: downtrend confirmed between $1.70 and $2.27

Technically, XRP-USD is in a clean, confirmed downtrend across timeframes. On the daily chart, price is trading near $1.74, below all key moving averages and aligned in bearish order:
Price below the 20-day EMA around $1.93
20-day EMA below the 50-day EMA near $2.00
50-day EMA below the 200-day EMA close to $2.27

That “price < EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA200” stack is the textbook signature of a dominant downtrend. Each bounce into the $1.93–$2.00 band is currently more likely to be sold than extended. The recent “death cross” – the 50-day sliding below the 200-day – reinforces the message that the prior bullish phase has broken, and the market is now in a distribution and reset leg.

Momentum confirms the damage. The daily RSI around 34 is just above oversold, signaling that sellers have controlled the tape for days but have not yet exhausted themselves. That kind of print often allows additional downside before a serious reversal. The daily MACD is negative, with its histogram below zero, indicating that bearish momentum is still in place even if the acceleration has slowed.

Price action is boxed between short-term support at $1.72 and a support-turned-resistance band around $1.81. Above that, the next inflection is the $2.00 area at the 50-day EMA, and then $2.13 and $2.27 at the 100- and 200-day EMAs. On the downside, a clean break and daily close below $1.70 opens the path back toward the April low around $1.61, a level that has now been highlighted by both derivatives desks and technical analysts as the next serious demand zone.

On intraday charts, the picture is similar. On the hourly frame, XRP-USD trades below the EMA20 (~$1.78), EMA50 (~$1.83) and EMA200 (~$1.89), with the RSI near 31, hovering close to oversold but without a strong reversal signal. On 15-minute charts, RSI has recovered toward the low-40s, showing short-term stabilization, but price still sits under the $1.75–$1.77 micro-resistance area. The structure is one of a controlled bleed, not a completed capitulation.

Sentiment and macro overlay: extreme fear, Fed policy and the Kevin Warsh nomination

Sentiment in crypto is categorically bad. A leading fear-and-greed gauge sits in Extreme Fear around 16, total crypto market cap is down close to 6% in 24 hours, and BTC dominance is edging higher as capital hides in the most liquid large cap. Altcoins, including XRP, are carrying the highest beta to this risk-off phase.

The macro triggers are straightforward. The Fed left rates unchanged and leaned hawkish in tone, refusing to promise quick cuts in the face of sticky inflation and geopolitical stress. That added a higher discount rate for all future cash flows and speculative narratives, directly hitting risk assets. On top of that, rising US–Iran tensions and renewed focus on security risks pushed investors toward cash, dollars and short-duration safe assets.

On the political side, Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair added an extra layer of uncertainty. Warsh has historically leaned toward sound-money rhetoric and is widely seen as more tolerant of tighter financial conditions than a fully dovish candidate. The nomination is being interpreted as mildly supportive for Bitcoin in the long term, but in the immediate aftermath markets care more about volatility and positioning than about long-horizon narratives.

Bullish path in XRP-USD: defend $1.70 and reclaim $1.93, then $2.00–$2.18

For XRP-USD bulls, the roadmap is clear and unforgiving. First, the market must defend the $1.70–$1.75 cluster, which combines horizontal support, the lower daily Bollinger Band near $1.75 and the first pivot support around $1.70. Daily closes above $1.70 keep the selloff as a controlled downtrend rather than a fresh breakdown.

Second, bulls need to win back the daily pivot at roughly $1.76 and then sustain trade above the $1.80–$1.81 resistance-turned-supply zone. That would signal that dip buyers are strong enough to absorb ETF outflows and forced liquidations.

The real line in the sand is the 20-day EMA around $1.93. A decisive break and close back above that level, followed by a push through the $2.00–$2.05 band and into the $2.18 upper Bollinger region, would mark genuine trend repair. RSI would need to move back above 40–45, ideally 50, and the MACD histogram would need to rotate toward or above zero. Only then can the market start talking about a sustained attempt to retest the $2.19–$2.29 resistance zone and, later, the $3.00+ region.

Until those conditions occur, any bounce is technically a rally inside a downtrend, not a confirmed new bull leg.

Bearish path in XRP-USD: extension toward $1.61 and potentially $1.25

For the bears, the playbook is more straightforward. As long as XRP-USD fails at $1.78–$1.83 on intraday rallies and cannot reclaim the 20-day EMA near $1.93, the dominant stance is to sell into strength. A daily close below $1.70, especially with expanding volume and rising ATR, would be the trigger for the next leg lower.

The first downside magnet in that scenario is the April low at $1.61. Below that, technicians watching Fibonacci extensions and prior consolidation structures are pointing to a broader support band down toward $1.25 as a potential overshoot target if macro conditions worsen and ETF outflows persist.

From a sentiment standpoint, continued extreme fear, rising BTC dominance, and further drawdowns in ETF AUM would reinforce that path. As leverage has already been purged, further declines would be driven more by spot selling and fund redemptions than by cascading margin calls, which can make the move slower but still structurally damaging.

Positioning view on XRP-USD: speculative Buy with brutal volatility, not a comfort trade

Structurally, XRP-USD is in a rare configuration:
Price in a confirmed downtrend, trading around $1.75, under all major EMAs and below key resistance at $1.81–$2.00
Long-term holders realizing roughly $220 million per day in profits and single wallets unloading hundreds of millions like the $721 million seven-year account near $2.00
Spot ETFs showing mixed behavior: one-day outflows of about $93 million, but cumulative inflows of roughly $1.17 billion and three straight months of positive net subscriptions
Exchange balances cut from 3.76 billion XRP to 1.64 billion XRP, the lowest since 2017, while the number of 1M+ XRP wallets rises by 42 to 2,016 addresses
Taker buy volume crushed by 95.7% from $5.8 billion to $250 million, but supply is quietly moving off exchanges and into long-horizon storage

That combination says the following. The short-term tape is objectively bearish. The mid-term structure, however, is quietly bullish: coins are leaving exchanges, big wallets are accumulating, and ETFs have built a multi-billion-dollar base even after the worst outflow day since launch.

From a market-structure standpoint, XRP-USD screens as a speculative Buy for high-volatility traders and long-term holders who can tolerate deep drawdowns, not as a safe haven or a stable carry asset. The cleaner leverage profile, halved exchange inventory and rising large-wallet count create the conditions for an outsized upside move once macro stress eases and demand returns. The timing is impossible to pinpoint, and nothing prevents the market from testing $1.61 or even lower before that upside is unlocked.

For anyone engaging with XRP-USD here, the critical levels are simple and non-negotiable: defend $1.70–$1.75 to avoid a slide toward $1.61, watch $1.93 and $2.00 as the first real proof that bears are losing control, and treat the $2.19–$2.29 zone as the next major decision point if and when a recovery wave arrives.

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