XRP-USD ($1.2983) Defends $1.256 100-Day EMA as ETFs Hold 1.07B XRP — Upside Toward $1.40 Range Top

XRP is trading at $1.2983, up 0.54% over 24 hours, after the heaviest regulatory selloff of any major token this week. The price has fallen 11.10% over seven days, compared with a 4.20% decline across the broader crypto market. With 63.02 billion XRP in circulation, today's price puts its market capitalization at $81.82 billion. XRP ranks fifth among all cryptocurrencies, with 24-hour trading volume of $4.86 billion.

The damage came fast. On Sunday, XRP sat near $1.34. By Monday afternoon it had climbed to $1.49, a 9.8% gain on the day, as traders positioned for a Senate vote on the Clarity Act. On Tuesday, the Senate voted 49-50 against advancing the bill. XRP fell 10% in the session, trading in an intraday range of $1.25 to $1.31. From Monday's $1.49 high to today's $1.2983, XRP has lost 12.9%.

XRP fell harder than every major peer. On the day after the vote, XRP dropped 8%, while Ethereum fell 3%, Solana dropped 3.5% and Bitcoin lost 1.5%. The ranking tracks regulatory exposure. Bitcoin's commodity status is settled. XRP's legal classification has been contested for years, and the Clarity Act was supposed to end that debate. When the bill failed, XRP gave back its entire pre-vote rally and more.

The floor held where it needed to. XRP's Tuesday low of $1.25 sits within 0.6 cents of its 100-day exponential moving average at $1.256. The token is trading above both that level and its 50-day exponential moving average at $1.284. The broader recovery from August's lows remains intact. On August 17, XRP set a cycle low of $0.9877. Today's price is 31.4% above that low.

The thesis for this forecast is direct. XRP took the biggest regulatory hit in crypto this week, and its leveraged longs were flushed out in the process. Spot XRP ETFs kept attracting capital through September, the SEC chair committed to delivering regulatory certainty without Congress, and Ripple's stablecoin and tokenization business kept expanding. The $1.25 to $1.28 zone, where the 50-day and 100-day moving averages converge, is the line that separates a correction from a breakdown. A hold there sets up a rebuild toward $1.35 and $1.40. A daily close below $1.25 opens a move toward $1.20.

The macro tape is helping at the margin. The Nasdaq Composite is up 1.7% and the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.94% on Thursday, one day after the Federal Reserve's first rate hike since July 2023. Bitcoin trades at $76,670, up 2% over 24 hours, and Ethereum at $2,449. XRP's 0.54% daily gain lags both. The regulatory discount is still weighing on XRP more than macro relief is lifting it.

The Clarity Act Vote and XRP's 10% Collapse

The Senate vote was the defining event for XRP this month. The cloture motion to proceed to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act failed 49-50 on Tuesday, falling 11 votes short of the 60 required to open debate. Every Democrat voted no, joined by four Republicans: Susan Collins, Josh Hawley, Jerry Moran and Thom Tillis. Tillis switched to a no vote as a procedural step that preserves his right to call the bill back up.

XRP had more at stake than any other major token. The Clarity Act would have split crypto oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and set rules for when a digital asset counts as a security or a commodity. Ripple spent years in litigation over XRP's status. A federal framework would have locked in legal certainty for exchanges, banks and payment firms that want to use XRP. Without it, that certainty depends on agency rules that a future administration could revise.

Ripple lobbied openly for passage. On Monday, Chief Executive Brad Garlinghouse urged lawmakers directly: "Senate, the world is watching and voters are watching. Now is the time to vote yes." XRP rallied 9.8% the same afternoon while Bitcoin sat near $77,600, flat on the day. That move was XRP-specific, and it reversed just as quickly.

The reaction after the vote was blunt. Garlinghouse said the Senate's failure "stings" and called it a setback for the broader U.S. crypto industry. He added that the SEC under Chair Paul Atkins and the CFTC under Chair Michael Selig could continue issuing rules to address parts of the regulatory gap, and that Ripple would stay involved in that process. He said the failed vote would not change Ripple's business strategy, which relies on global expansion and institutional demand. Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty also responded publicly the same day.

The legislative window has effectively closed for 2026. Congress is expected to leave Washington later this month ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. That leaves no realistic path for another cloture vote, floor debate, amendments and House action before year-end. The crypto market structure debate moves to 2027 under a potentially different congressional balance.

The prediction markets had warned traders. Odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 sat near 20% during Monday's rally. XRP traders bid the token up 9.8% against those odds. When the vote failed, the market reset to the probability it had already priced in the betting markets. The size of XRP's drop reflects the gap between what traders hoped for on Monday and what the odds said all along.

The Leverage Flush: 88% of Liquidations Hit Longs

Derivatives traders built the Monday rally. Open interest on the largest XRPUSDT perpetual futures market rose from 292.1 million XRP early on September 13 to 313.7 million XRP by 21:00 UTC on September 14. That is an increase of 21.6 million XRP, or 7.4%, in 36 hours. New leveraged positions piled in as the price climbed toward $1.49.

Those positions were wiped out on the vote. XRP recorded $26.9 million in long liquidations on Tuesday, compared with $3.6 million in short liquidations. Longs accounted for 88.2% of the damage. The ratio shows that traders were positioned almost entirely for a legislative win, and the failed vote forced them out in a single session.

The broader crypto flush was larger. Total crypto liquidations reached $771 million over 24 hours after the vote, with 120,217 traders forced out and long positions making up $568.5 million of the losses. XRP's $26.9 million share was smaller in dollar terms than Bitcoin's or Ethereum's, but the percentage price move was twice as large. Leverage in XRP was concentrated relative to its market depth.

The leverage reset is now visible. Funding rates on XRP perpetual futures turned negative on major derivatives exchanges, showing traders cutting long exposure and paying to hold shorts. XRP's total open interest dropped below $1 billion as speculative demand waned. Negative funding after a liquidation event means the market is now positioned for further declines, not for a rebound.

That positioning cuts both ways. With longs flushed and funding negative, there are fewer forced sellers left below $1.25. The risk has shifted to the short side. If spot buyers push XRP back above $1.31, the top of Tuesday's range, shorts who opened near the lows would face losses and could be forced to cover. Negative funding also means shorts pay longs to keep their positions open, which adds a small cost to bearish bets over time.

Spot demand is the missing piece. Open interest remains elevated relative to spot activity, and the market needs spot buying to defend the $1.25 to $1.30 zone. The derivatives flush cleared the excess. It did not create new demand. The question for the forecast is whether ETF buyers, large wallets and institutional users step in to absorb supply at these levels.

Spot XRP ETFs Keep Buying Through September

Institutional demand has been steadier than the price. U.S. spot XRP ETFs launched after the SEC approved the first wave of products in November 2025. Issuers include Bitwise, Grayscale, 21Shares, Canary Capital and Franklin Templeton, with funds listed on NYSE Arca, Nasdaq and Cboe BZX. Cumulative net inflows crossed $1.70 billion by September 9.

The funds now hold a meaningful slice of supply. U.S. spot XRP ETFs hold 1.07 billion XRP, locking up more than 1.7% of circulating supply inside fund custody. At today's price, that position is worth $1.39 billion. Combined ETF net assets stood at $1.48 billion as of September 4, when cumulative inflows were $1.68 billion. The gap between inflows and assets reflects XRP's price decline since many of those shares were created.

September flows were positive until the vote. Spot XRP ETFs recorded a $7.20 million outflow on September 2, their only negative session of the month through September 10. Inflows returned with $6.14 million on September 3, a flat day on September 4, $1.55 million on September 8, $12.29 million on September 9 and $5.14 million on September 10. The funds brought in $17.43 million across September 9 and 10 while XRP dropped 4% to $1.36.

The weekly pace was consistent. Spot XRP ETFs recorded $18.98 million of net inflows in the week ending September 11, almost identical to $18.96 million the prior week. That brought September's cumulative inflows to $32.29 million. Two consecutive weeks within $20,000 of each other show a stable allocation pattern rather than momentum buying.

The Clarity Act vote hit crypto funds broadly. Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP ETFs shed $593 million combined on Tuesday, their heaviest single-day drawdown since June. Bitcoin and Ethereum products accounted for the bulk of that. After the vote, inflows into XRP ETFs rose again as the SEC chair committed to acting within the agency's authority. XRP ETF flows have remained positive through the week's volatility.

Scale is the limitation. A $19 million weekly inflow is small against XRP's $81.82 billion market capitalization and $4.86 billion of daily trading volume. ETF buying provides a steady bid and signals institutional conviction. It is not large enough by itself to reverse a regulatory selloff. The forecast depends on ETF demand staying positive while other buyers return.

The SEC Steps In Where Congress Failed

The most important regulatory development after the vote came from the SEC. Chair Paul Atkins commended Congress and other stakeholders for their work on the Clarity Act, then said the agency could still regulate the crypto industry without legislation. "We will act decisively within the SEC's statutory authority to deliver certainty for American investors and for the entrepreneurs shaping our technological future," Atkins said.

That statement matters more for XRP than for any other major token. The central risk from the Clarity Act's failure was continued ambiguity about whether XRP and similar tokens fall under securities law. An SEC chair who commits to delivering certainty through agency action reduces that risk, even without a statute. Atkins had said days earlier that the SEC would continue its Project Crypto initiative regardless of the Senate outcome.

The CFTC shares the regulatory load. Garlinghouse pointed to CFTC Chair Michael Selig alongside Atkins as regulators who could issue rules to fill parts of the gap. Coordinated rulemaking between the two agencies could deliver much of what the Clarity Act promised on token classification and exchange registration, though with less durability than federal law.

Agency rules carry political risk. A future SEC or CFTC under different leadership could revise or reverse rules that current leadership adopts. Legislation would have locked in the framework. That is the structural discount XRP now carries: regulatory certainty exists, but it depends on who runs the agencies after 2028. The market is pricing that dependency.

Other regulatory progress continued. The SEC cleared a path for tokenized stocks this week, bringing U.S. markets closer to 24/7 trading. The UK Financial Conduct Authority published final cryptoasset perimeter guidance on September 16, naming which activities require authorization ahead of a September 30 application gateway. Clear rules in London and a supportive SEC in Washington give payment and tokenization firms operating room, even without the Clarity Act.

Federal Bitcoin policy moved forward separately. The House Financial Services Committee voted 28-21 to advance a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill that would also establish a separate Digital Asset Stockpile for non-Bitcoin assets held by the government. The stockpile would hold forfeited assets rather than purchase new tokens. For XRP, it signals that federal policy toward digital assets remains constructive even as the market structure bill stalled.

RLUSD Crosses $2.4 Billion as Ripple's Business Expands

Ripple's stablecoin is the fastest-growing part of its ecosystem. RLUSD's total supply has climbed to $2.42 billion, split between $1.37 billion on Ethereum and $1.05 billion on the XRP Ledger. Supply rose more than 50% over the past 30 days. A stablecoin that adds more than $800 million in a month is winning real payment and settlement activity.

The XRP Ledger's share of RLUSD matters for the token. With $1.05 billion of RLUSD issued natively on the XRP Ledger, 43.4% of the stablecoin's supply runs on Ripple's own network. Every RLUSD transaction on the XRP Ledger requires XRP for network fees and account reserves. Stablecoin growth on the ledger creates structural demand for the token, even if that demand is small relative to speculative flows.

Corporate treasury adoption is expanding. German logistics and manufacturing group TRATON connected to Ripple's treasury infrastructure, gaining access to both XRP and RLUSD on the same platform without new vendors or wallets. RLUSD lets the company move money across borders in minutes before converting to local currency. XRP is handled like a standard bank account with a full audit trail, real-time valuation and 15-decimal precision.

Tokenized funds have arrived on the ledger. Aviva Investors launched a tokenized share class of its USD Liquidity Fund on the XRP Ledger in partnership with Ripple, approved by the Central Bank of Ireland. It is the first public-chain tokenized fund structure cleared by a major EU regulator. BNY Mellon holds the underlying assets, Komainu provides digital asset custody and Licuido supplies the tokenization infrastructure. The fund keeps the same investment objective, risk profile and regulatory protections as its traditional share classes.

Ripple is building for automated payments. The company added XRP payments to a developer kit supporting Stripe and Tempo's artificial intelligence payment standard. The update expands automated payments in XRP and RLUSD, with tools that let AI agents pay repeatedly for services and manage wallets across blockchains. Machine-to-machine payments are an emerging use case where fast, low-cost settlement networks compete for volume.

Ledger activity supports the adoption story. XRP Ledger daily transactions increased 21% to 2.4 million between January and July 2026. The network's growth in transactions, stablecoin supply and institutional integrations runs in the opposite direction from the token's weekly price. That divergence is the fundamental case for a recovery once regulatory fear fades.

Escrow Supply and the Holder Math

XRP's supply structure differs from Bitcoin and Ethereum. XRP has a maximum supply of 100 billion tokens, with 63.02 billion in circulation. The remaining 36.98 billion, 37.0% of total supply, sits mostly in escrow controlled by Ripple. Escrow releases add new tokens to circulation on a schedule.

The monthly unlock is large relative to ETF demand. Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP from escrow on September 1, worth $1.38 billion at the time. At today's price, 1 billion XRP is worth $1.30 billion. September's ETF inflows through September 11 totaled $32.29 million. The monthly escrow release is 40 times September's ETF buying. Ripple historically returns a large share of each unlock to escrow, so the net supply added is smaller than the headline figure, but the overhang remains a structural consideration.

The holder base is under water. Three out of four XRP holders bought above $2. At today's price of $1.2983, those holders need a 54.0% gain to break even. That creates overhead supply at every price level between $1.30 and $2.00, as holders who waited through the decline sell into rallies to cut losses or recover capital. It is the main reason XRP has struggled to push through $1.50 this year.

Wallet distribution shows how concentrated holdings are. As of September 6, ranking in the top 10% of XRP wallets required 2,120 XRP. At today's price, that is worth $2,752. A small number of large wallets hold most of the supply. Their behavior matters more than retail sentiment.

Large wallets and retail are moving in opposite directions. On-chain data showed retail selling near $1.3459 while large wallets accumulated during the run-up to the vote. That pattern typically marks professional buyers absorbing supply from smaller holders. If large wallets continued accumulating into Tuesday's drop to $1.25, they now hold positions below retail's recent selling price.

Asset managers are allocating to XRP despite the volatility. Grayscale's Bitcoin-free Next Gen advisor portfolio gives XRP the second-largest weight at 26.11%, behind only Ethereum. Model portfolio allocations create recurring demand from financial advisors who follow them. Combined with ETF inflows, that provides a slow, persistent bid that offsets part of the escrow and underwater-holder supply.

The Fed Hike and the Macro Headwind

The Federal Reserve set the macro ceiling for crypto on Wednesday. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. The policy statement dropped prior language linking elevated inflation to energy supply shocks and said the action would support a timelier return to the 2 percent goal.

The projections point to more tightening. Sixteen of 18 officials projected at least one more quarter-point hike this year. The median projection for the end of 2026 rose to 4.1% from 3.8% in June. Futures put a 50% probability on another hike at the October 27–28 meeting, and money markets price 75 basis points of additional tightening by next June.

Higher rates weigh on speculative assets. XRP trades as a high-beta risk asset, and rising real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding tokens that generate no income. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 7.4 basis points to 4.74% on Wednesday, its highest since 2024. The 10-year yield touched 5.04% earlier this week, its highest since 2007. The dollar index reached 100.37 on Thursday, its strongest since July 31.

Thursday brought partial relief. The 10-year yield fell to 4.94% as oil prices dropped, with WTI crude trading near $100 per barrel after Saudi Arabia outlined plans to restore its damaged East-West pipeline. The dollar index eased to 100.08. Risk assets rallied: the S&P 500 rose 1% and the Nasdaq gained 1.7%. XRP's modest 0.54% gain shows the token is participating in the relief less than other risk assets.

The Fed chair's approach adds volatility. Kevin Warsh said the hike removed "a dose of accommodation" and that inflation has been too high for too long, while refusing to give forward guidance. Without guidance, markets trade every inflation and labor report as a potential rate event. Initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 on Thursday, below the 208,000 forecast, which supports the Fed's case for further tightening.

Friday's calendar carries rate risk for crypto. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 1.25% overnight. A hawkish signal from Tokyo could strengthen the yen and force an unwind of yen-funded carry trades, which historically hit leveraged crypto positions. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 9:30 a.m. ET and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid at 11:45 a.m. ET, the first officials to comment after the hike. XRP's leverage has already been flushed, which reduces its vulnerability to a carry unwind compared with a week ago.

The September Path: From $1.47 to $1.25

September started with a rally. On September 1, XRP climbed to $1.47, up 8.42% on the day, as the Clarity Act approached its Senate vote. The same day, Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP from escrow. The rally began a pattern that defined the month: legislative hope drove spikes, and macro or regulatory reality reversed them.

The first week consolidated. By September 6, XRP traded at $1.39 after moving between $1.35 and $1.42 over the prior week. On September 10, XRP dropped 4% to $1.36 even as spot ETFs attracted $17.43 million over two sessions. Through the second week, the token held a $1.34 to $1.35 range for most of the period.

The pre-vote spike came next. On September 14, XRP rose to $1.40, up 4.3% over 24 hours, then extended to $1.49 by Monday afternoon, a 9.8% daily gain. Derivatives open interest rose 7.4%. On September 15 at 1:22 p.m. ET, before the vote result, XRP traded at $1.39 on 24-hour volume of $3.34 billion.

The collapse followed within hours. XRP fell 10% on the vote, trading between $1.25 and $1.31. By September 16, the token was down 8% on the day while Bitcoin lost 1.5%. XRP ended the week down 6.7%.

The August base puts September in context. On August 17, XRP traded at $0.99 after setting a cycle low of $0.9877 and failing to hold $1.00. From that low to September's $1.49 peak, XRP rallied 50.9%. Today's $1.2983 has retraced 39.2% of that advance. The token remains well above its August base even after the week's damage.

The range for the month defines the trading plan. The top is $1.49, the pre-vote spike. The bottom is $1.25, the post-vote low. The midpoint is $1.37. Today's price sits in the lower third of that range, 5.2% below the midpoint. A move back above $1.35 would put XRP on the recovery side of its September structure. A daily close below $1.25 would break the month's low and put the moving average support at risk.

Prediction markets see more downside in September. Contracts on XRP falling below $1.20 in September priced at 57%, while contracts on XRP rising above $1.50 priced at 32%. The market leans toward a retest of lower levels before month-end. For the full year, contracts on XRP topping $3.25 priced at 23%, and contracts on XRP dropping below $0.80 priced at 29%.

Support Map: $1.284, $1.256 and $1.20

Three levels define XRP's downside. The first is $1.284, the 50-day exponential moving average. XRP trades 1.1% above it. The 50-day average marks the intermediate trend. Holding above it keeps the recovery from August's lows intact on a technical basis.

The second is the $1.25 to $1.256 zone. The 100-day exponential moving average sits at $1.256, and Tuesday's post-vote intraday low was $1.25. That convergence makes it the strongest support on the chart. From today's price, $1.25 is a 3.7% decline. A level where the longer-term moving average and the liquidation low meet is where buyers have the most reason to defend.

The third is $1.20. Below the moving average zone, the next reference is the round number that prediction markets give a 57% probability of breaking in September. From today's price, $1.20 is a 7.6% decline. A move there would break both key moving averages and signal that the post-vote selloff has become a trend.

The trigger for a break is a combination of events. A second day of broad crypto ETF outflows, a hawkish Bank of Japan decision that forces carry-trade liquidation, and a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield back above 5.04% would pressure all risk assets. For XRP specifically, a large net escrow release without offsetting ETF demand would add supply at the worst moment.

Below $1.20, the August base returns to view. The $1.00 level acted as support through mid-August and then as resistance after XRP briefly broke below it. The cycle low at $0.9877 sits 23.9% below today's price. Those levels are not near-term targets without a new shock beyond the Clarity Act failure and the Fed hike.

The support structure favors holding $1.25. The leverage flush removed forced sellers, funding turned negative, and ETF buyers continued adding. Large wallets accumulated while retail sold near $1.3459. XRP broke to $1.25 on a regulatory shock and recovered to $1.30 within 48 hours. The test for support comes Friday with the Bank of Japan decision and Fed speakers.

Resistance Stack: $1.31, $1.35, $1.40 and $1.49

The upside has four layers of resistance. The first is $1.31, the top of Tuesday's post-vote trading range. XRP trades 0.9% below it. Reclaiming $1.31 would put the token back above the entire collapse range and signal that sellers exhausted themselves in a single session. It is also the level where shorts that opened near the lows begin facing losses.

The second is $1.3459, where retail sellers were active during the run-up to the vote. That zone overlaps with $1.35, the bottom of the $1.35 to $1.42 range XRP held in early September. From today's price, $1.35 is a 4.0% gain. Clearing it would put XRP back inside its pre-vote trading range.

The third is the $1.40 to $1.42 zone, the top of the early-September range and the September 14 level before the final spike. From today's price, $1.40 is a 7.8% gain. Reclaiming $1.40 would erase most of the Clarity Act selloff and require ETF inflows to accelerate beyond the $19 million weekly pace.

The fourth is the $1.47 to $1.50 zone. XRP hit $1.47 on September 1 and $1.49 on September 14, and prediction markets price a 32% chance of a September move above $1.50. From today's price, $1.49 is a 14.8% gain and $1.50 is a 15.5% gain. That move would need a new catalyst: a formal SEC rulemaking proposal on token classification, a large institutional adoption announcement, or a broad crypto rally driven by falling yields.

Each level has a different trigger. Reclaiming $1.31 needs only a continuation of Thursday's macro relief and short covering. Breaking $1.35 needs XRP ETF inflows to hold positive and the SEC to follow Atkins' statement with concrete action. Clearing $1.40 needs Bitcoin to push toward $80,000 and pull the broader market with it. Reaching $1.49 needs an XRP-specific catalyst on the scale of the Clarity Act hopes that drove Monday's spike.

Overhead supply thickens above $1.35. The retail selling zone at $1.3459, the underwater holders who bought above $2, and Ripple's monthly escrow releases all add supply into rallies. That structure makes the $1.35 to $1.40 zone harder to break than the price distance suggests. XRP will need sustained spot demand, not just a short squeeze, to clear it.

XRP Price Forecast Verdict: Range With a Bullish Tilt, $1.35 Target

XRP enters Friday at $1.2983, up 0.54% over 24 hours, after falling 12.9% from Monday's $1.49 high on the Senate's 49-50 rejection of the Clarity Act. It dropped 10% on the vote to an intraday low of $1.25, fell 8% the next day while Bitcoin lost only 1.5%, and lost 11.10% for the week. Long liquidations of $26.9 million made up 88.2% of the damage. The token held its 100-day exponential moving average at $1.256 and trades above its 50-day average at $1.284.

The recovery case rests on demand that did not leave. U.S. spot XRP ETFs hold 1.07 billion XRP, more than 1.7% of circulating supply, with cumulative inflows above $1.70 billion and steady weekly inflows near $19 million. SEC Chair Paul Atkins committed to acting decisively within the agency's authority to deliver certainty for crypto. RLUSD supply climbed more than 50% in 30 days to $2.42 billion, with $1.05 billion on the XRP Ledger. Aviva Investors, TRATON and a new AI payments developer kit added institutional use cases. Large wallets accumulated while retail sold near $1.3459.

The risk case is structural. The Clarity Act is dead for 2026, leaving XRP's legal status dependent on agency rules that a future administration could change. Three out of four holders bought above $2. Ripple's 1 billion XRP monthly escrow release is 40 times September's ETF inflows. Funding turned negative, and prediction markets price a 57% chance of XRP falling below $1.20 this month. The Fed's hike and 75 basis points of priced tightening pressure speculative assets.

The forecast is a range with a bullish tilt. First resistance sits at $1.31, then the $1.3459 to $1.35 zone, with $1.40 to $1.42 as the extended target and $1.49 as the breakout level. Support holds at the $1.284 50-day moving average, the $1.25 to $1.256 zone and $1.20. A daily close below $1.25 invalidates the bullish tilt and opens a move toward $1.20.

The trigger is spot demand. XRP ETF inflows holding positive, combined with the 10-year Treasury yield staying below 4.94% and Bitcoin extending toward $80,000, confirms a break above $1.31 and a move toward $1.35 and $1.40. Concrete SEC rulemaking on token classification would extend the rally. A daily close below the $1.25 moving average convergence sends XRP toward $1.20.

Verdict: bullish bias above $1.25, targeting $1.35 near term and $1.40 on sustained ETF inflows and a break above $1.31, with the forecast invalidated on a daily close below $1.25.

That's TradingNEWS