XRPI ($7.09) Rises 2.46% as Spot XRP Funds Hold $1.47B but Flows Stall Near Zero — $1.35 Breakout Sets the Next Leg

The Volatility Shares XRP ETF (NASDAQ:XRPI) closed Tuesday at $7.09, up $0.17 or 2.46%, after opening at $7.02 and trading in a narrow band between $6.99 and $7.10. The fund closed within a cent of its session high, and after-hours trading was flat at $7.09. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF (BATS:XRPR) traded at $10.78 near the close, after opening at $10.76 and holding a tight $10.76 to $10.78 range on light activity.

Both funds tracked XRP higher. The token traded near $1.30, up about 2% on the day, holding above the $1.27 double bottom that has defined its floor through October. XRP’s market value stands near $82 billion, ranking it fifth among cryptocurrencies.

The gains came against a mixed backdrop. Ripple received approval for a national trust bank charter from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on October 26, a regulatory milestone that failed to spark a broader rally. U.S. stocks rose, with the Nasdaq up 1.33% on AI optimism, but crypto lagged: bitcoin held near $80,000, ether fell 1.49% and Solana slipped toward $100.

The longer view shows the damage. XRPI sits 55.6% below its 52-week high of $15.96 and 30.8% above its 52-week low of $5.42. XRPR sits 51.3% below its 52-week high of $22.12 and 33.1% above its 52-week low of $8.10. Both funds have roughly halved from their peaks, mirroring XRP’s slide from $3.661 in July 2025 to $1.30.

The spot ETF picture adds context. The five U.S. spot XRP ETFs held $1.469 billion in total net assets on Monday, equal to 1.79% of XRP’s market capitalization, against cumulative net inflows of $1.801 billion since their November 2025 debut. That gap means investors have put $332 million more into the funds than their holdings are now worth, an 18% paper loss on the money deployed. The funds recorded a $3.61 million outflow on Monday, all from the Bitwise XRP ETF.

The thesis for this analysis is direct. XRP ETFs have built a durable institutional base, $1.8 billion of cumulative inflows that has barely moved in weeks, but they are no longer adding new money at a pace that can lift the token. Flows have shrunk to a few million dollars a day in either direction, and investors are holding rather than buying or selling. Until XRP breaks out of its $1.25 to $1.35 range, the ETFs will track the token rather than drive it.

The ETF Lineup: Spot Funds, a Futures Fund and a Hybrid

XRP investors can choose among three types of exchange-traded products, and the structures matter for performance and costs.

The spot ETFs hold XRP directly. Five U.S. spot XRP ETFs trade on American exchanges, launched in November 2025 after regulators approved generic listing standards for crypto funds. The Bitwise XRP ETF, which trades under the ticker XRP, began operations on November 19, 2025. It holds XRP in custody with a New York-chartered trust company and prices its net asset value against a CME CF XRP reference rate. Bitwise waived its sponsor fee on the first $500 million of assets through December 19, 2025, and has charged 0.34% a year since. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ and other issuers round out the group.

The Volatility Shares XRP ETF (XRPI) uses futures rather than spot tokens. It holds XRP futures contracts traded on regulated exchanges, which means its performance depends on futures prices and the cost of rolling contracts from one month to the next. When futures trade above spot, a condition called contango, rolling contracts costs money over time and drags returns below the token’s spot performance. XRPI launched before spot funds won approval, giving early investors a regulated route to XRP exposure.

The REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) launched in September 2025 under the Investment Company Act of 1940, a different regulatory framework than the spot funds. It provided XRP exposure ahead of the spot ETF approvals and uses a structure that can combine direct holdings with other instruments.

The differences show in trading behavior. XRPI traded a full 11-cent range on Tuesday with active volume. XRPR traded in a 2-cent range, a sign of thinner liquidity. The spot funds together traded $22.76 million on Monday.

Price levels differ because each fund launched at a different share price and tracks XRP through different structures. XRPI at $7.09 and XRPR at $10.78 both move roughly in line with XRP, but their per-share prices are not directly comparable to the token’s $1.30.

For investors, the choice comes down to cost and tracking. Spot funds track XRP most closely with fees near 0.34%. Futures-based XRPI carries roll costs that can widen tracking gaps over long holding periods. XRPR’s thinner trading means wider spreads for larger orders.

Spot ETF Flows: $1.8 Billion In, Barely Moving Now

The spot XRP ETFs have built a substantial institutional base since November 2025, but flows have slowed to a trickle in October.

The cumulative total is the headline. Spot XRP ETFs have taken in $1.801 billion of net inflows since launch, according to data through October 26. That figure reached about $1.81 billion by October 9 and has held near that level since. The Bitwise XRP ETF accounts for $680 million of the total, about 38%, making it the largest contributor.

Daily flows have shrunk sharply. On Monday, October 26, the funds recorded a $3.61 million net outflow, after no net flows on Friday. The Bitwise fund accounted for the entire withdrawal. The other four funds saw no flows. Trading volume across the five funds reached $22.76 million.

The weekly pattern shows small swings. The funds took in $4.25 million in the week ended October 23, after $1.84 million of outflows the previous week. On October 22, the day the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, the funds drew $3.55 million of inflows, a modest buy-the-dip move. Monday’s outflow nearly matched that inflow.

These amounts are tiny relative to the funds’ size. A $3.61 million outflow equals about 0.25% of the funds’ $1.469 billion in assets. Weekly flows of $1.84 million to $4.25 million barely register. The funds are not losing money in bulk, but they are not attracting new money either.

The comparison to other crypto ETFs shows XRP holding steadier. Ether ETFs lost $88.58 million on Monday, Solana ETFs $8.23 million. Bitcoin ETFs gained $110.34 million. XRP’s $3.61 million outflow was the smallest among the three alternative tokens.

The slowdown follows a strong early period. XRP ETFs accumulated $756 million of inflows by early December 2025, weeks after launch, and reached $1.8 billion by mid-October 2026. Most of that money arrived in the funds’ first months.

For investors, the flow picture shows a stable but stalled base. The institutional holders who bought XRP ETFs are holding, but new buyers have not stepped in at current prices.

The $332 Million Gap: Why ETF Holders Are Underwater

The spread between cumulative inflows and current assets tells the story of XRP ETF performance since launch.

Spot XRP ETFs have taken in $1.801 billion of net inflows but hold only $1.469 billion in assets. The $332 million difference represents the paper loss on investors’ money, about 18% of the total deployed. Investors who bought the funds have, on average, lost money as XRP fell.

The math follows XRP’s price path. The token traded at $1.82 at the end of 2025, according to Bitwise’s quarterly filings, shortly after the funds launched. It fell to $1.34 by March 31, 2026, and $1.04 by June 30. It has since recovered to $1.30, a rebound of 25% from the June level but still 29% below its year-end price.

Bitwise’s filings show the dynamic clearly. In the first half of 2026, the Bitwise trust added about 181.5 million XRP through share creations, worth roughly $270 million at the time, while redemptions removed about 25.6 million XRP. Yet the trust recorded net realized and unrealized losses as XRP fell from $1.82 to $1.04. Investors kept buying through the decline, but the price drop erased much of the value.

That pattern explains the current hesitation. Investors who bought at $1.50 to $1.80 are waiting for a recovery before adding more. New investors see a token that has lost more than half its value from its July 2025 peak and has struggled to hold rallies.

The gap also shows conviction. Despite an 18% average paper loss, ETF holders have not sold in large amounts. Outflows remain small, and cumulative inflows have held near $1.8 billion. Investors are treating XRP ETFs as long-term positions rather than trading vehicles.

The same pattern appears in Ripple’s broader ecosystem. Large holders, those with at least 10 million XRP, control 68.5% of supply, the highest since November 2022, and long-term holder positions reached a one-month high on October 26.

For investors, the $332 million gap is both a warning and a floor. It shows how much XRP’s decline has cost ETF buyers, but it also shows that those buyers are not panicking.

XRPI: The Futures Fund at $7.09

The Volatility Shares XRP ETF offers a distinct way to hold XRP, and Tuesday’s trading shows how it behaves.

XRPI closed at $7.09, up 2.46%. The fund opened at $7.02, dipped to $6.99, then climbed to $7.10 before closing a cent below the high. The 2.46% gain slightly exceeded XRP’s roughly 2% move, a difference that can reflect futures pricing and the timing of the fund’s valuation.

The fund’s structure drives its returns. XRPI holds XRP futures rather than tokens. Futures contracts expire monthly, so the fund must sell expiring contracts and buy new ones, a process called rolling. When later-dated futures trade at a premium to near-dated ones, rolling costs money, creating a drag on returns over time. In periods when futures trade below spot, rolling can add a small gain.

The 52-week range shows XRPI’s swings. The fund peaked at $15.96 and bottomed at $5.42. The current $7.09 sits 55.6% below the high, close to XRP’s own decline from its peak range. The 30.8% recovery from the low matches XRP’s rebound from its June trough near $1.04.

XRPI’s advantage was timing. It gave investors regulated XRP exposure before spot funds won approval. Now that spot ETFs exist with lower costs and direct holdings, XRPI competes on liquidity and the ability to trade options in some cases.

The futures market adds a leverage dimension. XRP futures open interest stands near $2.77 billion, and futures prices react quickly to market moves. That can amplify XRPI’s daily moves relative to spot funds.

The fund suits shorter-term traders. Investors planning to hold XRP for years may prefer spot funds that avoid roll costs. Traders who want to capture short moves, including around events like Wednesday’s Fed decision, may find XRPI’s liquidity useful.

For investors, XRPI at $7.09 tracks XRP’s direction closely day to day. Over longer periods, roll costs can create gaps that make spot funds a better choice for buy-and-hold positions.

XRPR: The 1940 Act Pioneer at $10.78

The REX-Osprey XRP ETF holds a unique place in the XRP fund landscape as one of the earliest products offering XRP exposure.

XRPR traded at $10.78 on Tuesday, after opening at $10.76 and holding a tight range of $10.76 to $10.78. The 2-cent range points to thin trading, as the fund’s activity has fallen since spot ETFs launched with larger asset bases and deeper liquidity.

The fund launched in September 2025 under the Investment Company Act of 1940, the framework that governs mutual funds and most ETFs. That structure differs from the spot XRP ETFs, which are organized as grantor trusts under the Securities Act of 1933. The 1940 Act framework allowed XRPR to reach the market before regulators approved spot crypto funds.

The 52-week range shows the fund’s path. XRPR peaked at $22.12 and bottomed at $8.10. The current $10.78 sits 51.3% below the high and 33.1% above the low. The drawdown roughly matches XRP’s decline from its 2025 peak.

XRPR’s challenge is competition. Once spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 from Bitwise, Franklin Templeton and others, investors gained lower-cost, more liquid options that hold XRP directly. XRPR’s assets and trading volume have lagged as a result.

The fund still serves a niche. Its 1940 Act structure can offer certain tax and regulatory characteristics that differ from grantor trusts, and some investors and platforms prefer that framework.

The thin trading carries a practical cost. Investors buying or selling XRPR in size may face wider bid-ask spreads than in the spot funds, which can eat into returns on large orders.

For investors, XRPR at $10.78 provides XRP exposure but with less liquidity than the spot ETFs. Its price movement tracks XRP, and its future depends on whether it can compete with larger, cheaper spot funds.

XRP at $1.30: The Token Behind the Funds

Every XRP ETF depends on the token’s price, and XRP’s technical and on-chain picture sets the direction for the funds.

XRP traded near $1.30 on Tuesday, holding above the $1.27 double bottom that has defined its floor this month. The token has traded in a narrow range between $1.26 and $1.32 after an early-week breakdown, according to market reports. Its market value stands near $82 billion.

The technical picture is weak. A death cross formed on October 19, when the 20-day exponential moving average crossed below the 50-day, a bearish signal. XRP sits about 64% below its all-time high of $3.661, set on July 18, 2025.

Exchange inflows signal selling pressure. Over the past 30 days, 6.05 billion XRP moved to exchanges, the highest inflow in seven months, according to on-chain data. Tokens moving to exchanges often signal intent to sell.

Other on-chain data show accumulation. Wallets holding at least 10 million XRP control 68.5% of supply, the highest level since November 2022. Long-term holder net position changes reached 189.9 million XRP on October 26, a one-month high. Exchange withdrawals hit a two-month high in recent days. That mix shows large holders buying while some smaller holders sell.

Ripple’s corporate developments have not lifted the token. The OCC approved Ripple’s national trust bank charter on October 26, a major regulatory step. But the charter benefits Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, which has a market value near $2.5 billion, more than XRP directly. Evernorth Holdings plans an $80 million stock sale to buy XRP, a modest source of demand.

A network update looms. An XRP Ledger amendment vote was delayed to November 4 after validator support dropped to 26 of 35 on October 21.

For ETF investors, XRP’s $1.25 to $1.35 range sets the funds’ direction. A break above $1.35 would lift all XRP ETFs; a break below $1.25 would push them lower.

XRP at $1.30: The Token Behind the Funds

Every XRP ETF depends on the token’s price, and XRP’s technical and on-chain picture sets the direction for the funds.

XRP traded near $1.30 on Tuesday, holding above the $1.27 double bottom that has defined its floor this month. The token has traded in a narrow range between $1.26 and $1.32 after an early-week breakdown, according to market reports. Its market value stands near $82 billion.

The technical picture is weak. A death cross formed on October 19, when the 20-day exponential moving average crossed below the 50-day, a bearish signal. XRP sits about 64% below its all-time high of $3.661, set on July 18, 2025.

Exchange inflows signal selling pressure. Over the past 30 days, 6.05 billion XRP moved to exchanges, the highest inflow in seven months, according to on-chain data. Tokens moving to exchanges often signal intent to sell.

Other on-chain data show accumulation. Wallets holding at least 10 million XRP control 68.5% of supply, the highest level since November 2022. Long-term holder net position changes reached 189.9 million XRP on October 26, a one-month high. Exchange withdrawals hit a two-month high in recent days. That mix shows large holders buying while some smaller holders sell.

Ripple’s corporate developments have not lifted the token. The OCC approved Ripple’s national trust bank charter on October 26, a major regulatory step. But the charter benefits Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, which has a market value near $2.5 billion, more than XRP directly. Evernorth Holdings plans an $80 million stock sale to buy XRP, a modest source of demand.

A network update looms. An XRP Ledger amendment vote was delayed to November 4 after validator support dropped to 26 of 35 on October 21.

For ETF investors, XRP’s $1.25 to $1.35 range sets the funds’ direction. A break above $1.35 would lift all XRP ETFs; a break below $1.25 would push them lower.

The Crypto ETF Divide: XRP Holds Better Than Ether and Solana

XRP ETFs have held up better than other alternative crypto funds in October, a sign of relative stability in a weak market.

Monday’s flows showed the divide. Bitcoin ETFs took in $110.34 million, all into BlackRock’s IBIT. Ether ETFs lost $88.58 million, led by $104.71 million out of BlackRock’s ETHA. Solana ETFs lost $8.23 million, led by $7.22 million out of Bitwise’s staking fund. XRP ETFs lost $3.61 million. Combined, ether, Solana and XRP funds lost $100.42 million, leaving total crypto ETF flows across the four assets positive by only $9.92 million.

The relative sizes matter. XRP ETFs hold $1.469 billion, equal to 1.79% of XRP’s market capitalization. Solana ETFs hold $1.55 billion, 2.63% of Solana’s market capitalization. Bitcoin ETFs hold $102.84 billion, 6.41% of bitcoin’s. XRP’s ETF penetration is the lowest of the three, meaning ETFs have less influence on XRP’s price than on bitcoin’s or Solana’s.

The flow trends differ. Solana ETFs ended a 14-week inflow streak in early October and have bled near-daily since. Ether ETFs have lost about $917 million in October. XRP ETFs have held roughly flat, swinging between small inflows and outflows.

Price performance followed. XRP rose about 2% on Tuesday while Solana slipped and ether fell 1.49%. Over the past month, XRP has held its range better than Solana, which fell 17%.

The stability reflects XRP’s holder base. Large holders and long-term investors dominate supply, and they have been accumulating rather than selling. That limits downside pressure even when ETF flows turn negative.

For investors, XRP ETFs’ relative resilience is a modest positive. In a market where capital is consolidating into bitcoin, XRP funds have avoided the heavy outflows that hit ether and Solana.

The Macro Calendar: Fed, Big Tech and Bitcoin’s Expiry

XRP ETFs will face several outside forces this week that could break the token’s range.

The Federal Reserve decides Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET. A hold at 3.75%-4.00% is priced above 90%, with a December hike close to fully priced. A hawkish message confirming December would lift yields and the dollar, pressuring crypto. A softer message would ease pressure on risk assets.

Big Tech earnings follow. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday after the close, and Amazon Thursday. Strong results would extend the AI rally that has drawn capital away from crypto. A disappointment could trigger a risk-off move that hits XRP alongside equities, though it could eventually redirect capital toward crypto.

Bitcoin’s options expiry looms Friday. About $11 billion of bitcoin options expire on Deribit on October 30, with max pain near $78,000. A bitcoin move toward that level would likely drag XRP below $1.27. A bitcoin breakout above $82,500 would lift XRP toward $1.35 to $1.40.

The XRP Ledger amendment vote on November 4 adds a network-specific event. Validator support needs to recover above the threshold for the amendment to pass, and failure could weigh on sentiment.

The U.S. midterm elections on November 3 add political risk. Crypto regulation has become a campaign issue, and the outcome could shape the regulatory environment for XRP ETFs and Ripple’s banking ambitions.

The AI rotation remains the broadest headwind. Anthropic’s IPO filing, Meta’s $25 billion stock sale and Broadcom’s $63 billion chip financing pulled speculative capital toward equities this week. Crypto has lagged as a result.

For XRP ETF investors, the calendar is heavy with event risk. The funds will likely stay volatile through Friday, with direction set by the Fed and bitcoin.

XRPI and XRPR Technical Map

Both funds’ charts mirror XRP’s levels, translated to their own share prices.

For XRPI, support begins at $6.99, Tuesday’s low, and $7.00, a round number. Below that, the fund’s floor sits near the levels that matched XRP’s $1.27 double bottom. A break below would open a move toward $6.50, then $5.42, the 52-week low. Resistance starts at $7.10, Tuesday’s high. Above that, a move matching XRP’s break above $1.35 would lift XRPI toward $7.40 to $7.50. A move matching XRP at $1.40 would target near $7.65. The 52-week high of $15.96 sits far above, requiring XRP to more than double.

For XRPR, support begins at $10.76, Tuesday’s low. Below that, the fund’s floor matches XRP’s $1.25 to $1.27 zone. A break would open a move toward $10.00, then $8.10, the 52-week low. Resistance starts at $10.78, Tuesday’s high, with the next targets near $11.20 to $11.50 if XRP breaks above $1.35. The 52-week high of $22.12 requires a recovery in XRP toward $2.60 or more.

The trend for both funds is sideways within a longer downtrend. Both have roughly halved from their peaks and recovered about 30% from their lows, matching XRP’s path.

XRP’s levels drive both funds. Support at $1.27, the double bottom, and $1.25 frames the downside. A daily close below $1.25 would target $1.04, the June low. Resistance at $1.35 frames the upside, with $1.40 the next target.

For traders, XRPI’s tighter tracking of daily moves and better liquidity make it the more active vehicle. XRPR’s thin trading makes it better suited to patient investors.

XRP ETF Outlook: Three Scenarios Into November

The outlook splits into three paths, with the Fed, bitcoin’s options expiry and XRP’s range deciding which plays out.

The base case, with the highest probability, is a continued range. XRP holds between $1.25 and $1.35 through the first week of November. ETF flows stay small, swinging between a few million dollars of inflows and outflows. Cumulative inflows hold near $1.8 billion and total assets near $1.47 billion. XRPI trades between $6.85 and $7.35, and XRPR between $10.40 and $11.20.

The bull case requires XRP to close above $1.35. The triggers would be a bitcoin breakout above $82,500, a softer Fed message, passage of the XRP Ledger amendment on November 4 and renewed ETF inflows above $10 million a day. In that scenario, XRP would target $1.40, and spot ETF assets would climb toward $1.55 billion. XRPI would target near $7.65 and XRPR near $11.60.

The bear case requires XRP to close below $1.25. The triggers would be a bitcoin break below $78,000 on Friday’s expiry, a hawkish Fed, continued exchange inflows and failure of the amendment vote. In that scenario, XRP would target $1.04, the June low, a 20% decline. Spot ETF assets would fall toward $1.2 billion, widening the gap with cumulative inflows to nearly $600 million. XRPI would fall toward $5.70 and XRPR toward $8.70.

Weighing the scenarios, the balance is neutral. Stable ETF holdings, whale accumulation and the double-bottom floor support XRP. The death cross, exchange inflows, the AI rotation and a heavy macro calendar limit the upside.

Verdict: Stable Base, Stalled Flows, $1.35 Unlocks the Next Move

XRP ETFs at Tuesday’s close show a market holding its ground without momentum. XRPI rose 2.46% to $7.09, and XRPR held $10.78, both tracking XRP’s 2% gain to $1.30. Both funds sit roughly halfway between their 52-week highs and lows, down more than 50% from their peaks and up about 30% from their troughs.

The spot ETFs have built a solid institutional base. Five funds hold $1.469 billion in assets after $1.801 billion of cumulative inflows since November 2025, with the Bitwise XRP ETF contributing $680 million. Investors have held through an 18% average paper loss, a $332 million gap, without significant selling. Monday’s $3.61 million outflow was the smallest among alternative crypto funds, as ether and Solana ETFs lost far more.

But the funds have stopped growing. Daily flows have shrunk to a few million dollars, weekly flows to under $5 million, and new buyers are not stepping in at current prices. XRP’s death cross, 6.05 billion tokens moved to exchanges in 30 days, and the AI rotation that has drawn capital from crypto all limit the upside. Ripple’s bank charter boosts its RLUSD stablecoin more than XRP.

The verdict is neutral. XRP ETFs will track XRP’s $1.25 to $1.35 range through the Fed decision and Friday’s bitcoin options expiry. A daily close above $1.35 would lift XRPI toward $7.65 and XRPR toward $11.60, with renewed ETF inflows likely to follow. A close below $1.25 would push XRPI toward $5.70 and XRPR toward $8.70 as XRP targets $1.04. For long-term investors, the spot funds’ lower costs and direct holdings make them the better vehicle, while XRPI remains the trader’s tool for short-term moves.

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