XRPR Closes at Its Session Low of $9.57, 55% Below Its 52-Week High, as ETF Inflows Stall at $1.81 Billion and XRP Tests the October Floor
XRP’s ETFs trade just 15% to 18% above their August lows | That's TradingNEWS
Key Points
- XRP fell to $1.18, an 11-week low; the Bitwise XRP ETF lost 4.74% to $13.06 and XRPR fell 4.73% to $9.57.
- Spot XRP ETFs logged zero net flows on November 3–5; $1.81B of inflows now sits against $1.41B in assets.
- A close below $1.19685 targets $1.10 and $0.99, where XRPR would hit $7.96, below its $8.10 52-week low.
XRP traded at $1.19 on Friday evening after falling to $1.18 during the session. It was the first time the token had traded below $1.19 since late August. XRP closed Thursday at $1.2075, down 7.46%, and has fallen another 1.5% since. Over the past two sessions it has dropped from a Wednesday close of $1.3048 and a weekly high of $1.3391. At $1.19, XRP is worth $75.44 billion and remains the fifth-largest cryptocurrency. It would need to rise 207% to return to its all-time high of $3.65.
The US-listed XRP funds closed Friday with the same message. The Bitwise XRP ETF finished at $13.06, down 4.74%. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF, XRPR, closed at $9.57, down 4.73%, or $0.48, after trading between $9.57 and $9.67. Its session low was its close, so buyers never appeared in the final hours. The XRPI fund closed at $6.25, down 4.87%, before edging up to $6.28 after hours. The leveraged products fell twice as far: the 2x XRP ETF lost 9.92% to $22.06, and the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF fell 9.87% to $10.04.
Our thesis is that the ETF prices show a market with neither institutional support nor retail conviction behind it, and the October low near $1.20 is the last line before the August lows. XRPR closed 55.0% below its 52-week high of $21.28 and only 18.1% above its 52-week low of $8.10. The XRPI fund closed 59.0% below its 52-week high of $15.24 and 15.3% above its low of $5.42. Both funds’ lows were set in August, when XRP traded near $0.99. ETF holders who bought at any point in the past year, apart from the summer lows, are sitting on losses.
Spot XRP ETF flows confirm the weakness. The funds recorded zero net flows on November 3, 4 and 5. Cumulative inflows since the November 2025 launch have stalled at $1.81 billion against assets of $1.41 billion. Ripple announced custody with BNY, an expanded partnership with Robinhood and a trade finance deal on the XRP Ledger on October 27. None of it has brought money into the funds.
Our base case through the December 9 Fed decision is a range of $1.05 to $1.32, with a midpoint of $1.18. A daily close below the October 30 low of $1.19685 would open $1.10 and then $0.99, 16.8% below the current price, where XRPR would trade near $7.96, below its 52-week low. A recovery needs a close above the 200-day average at $1.27, and a trend change needs a close above the 50-day average at $1.38, 16.0% above today’s level.
Friday’s Close in the ETFs: $13.06, $9.57, $6.25 and the 2x Funds at −9.9%
The XRP ETFs give a cleaner read of US demand than spot exchanges, because they trade only during US market hours and reflect what American investors are willing to pay. On Friday, every XRP fund fell. The Bitwise XRP ETF lost 4.74% to $13.06, implying a Thursday close of $13.71. XRPR lost 4.73% to $9.57 from $10.05. The XRPI fund lost 4.87% to $6.25 from $6.57. The moves line up with XRP’s 4.7% decline from Thursday’s 4 p.m. reference to Friday’s.
Intraday ranges were narrow. XRPR opened at $9.65, reached a high of $9.67 and closed at its low of $9.57. A fund that closes at the session low shows steady selling into the close with no late buying. The XRPI fund opened at $6.28, reached $6.38 and fell to a low of $6.23 before closing at $6.25. The 0.48% after-hours gain to $6.28 was too small to change the picture.
The leveraged funds show where the damage is concentrated. The 2x XRP ETF fell 9.92% to $22.06, from a Thursday close of $24.49. The ProShares Ultra XRP ETF fell 9.87% to $10.04, from $11.14. Both moved about 2.1 times XRP’s daily decline, in line with their design. Leveraged products appeal mainly to short-term traders, and their losses this week add to the evidence that retail traders who bought the post-election bounce are being forced out.
Leveraged funds also lose value over time in volatile markets. A 2x fund resets its leverage every day, so a sequence of large up and down moves erodes its value even if the underlying asset ends flat. XRP’s moves this week, up 2.12% on Tuesday, up 2.24% on Wednesday, down 7.46% on Thursday and down again on Friday, are the kind of swings that hurt leveraged holders most. That decay discourages traders from holding leveraged XRP positions through a downtrend.
For the forecast, the ETF closes set the tone for Monday. Funds that close at their session lows on a Friday often open lower the following week if spot prices keep falling over the weekend. XRP trades around the clock, so weekend moves will show up in Monday’s ETF opening prices. A weekend hold above $1.19685 would let the funds open flat. A break below it would put XRPR near $9.20 to $9.40 and the Bitwise fund near $12.50 at Monday’s open.
Where ETF Holders Stand: 55% to 59% Below the 52-Week Highs
The 52-week ranges of the XRP funds show how much value has been lost. XRPR’s 52-week high is $21.28 and its low is $8.10. At $9.57, it is 55.0% below the high and 18.1% above the low. The XRPI fund’s range runs from $15.24 to $5.42. At $6.25, it is 59.0% below the high and 15.3% above the low. The Bitwise XRP ETF traded at $24.44 in November 2025, $19.46 in January 2026 and $13.64 at the end of June. At $13.06, it is 46.6% below its November 2025 level.
The highs date from late 2025, when XRP traded above $2.50 after the funds launched. XRP’s 52-week high is $2.58, and the funds’ highs correspond to that level. The lows date from August 2026, when XRP fell to $0.99, its 12-month low. Since then, XRP rallied to $1.57 on September 23 and has given back most of that move. The ETFs have followed the same path.
Aggregate flows show the cost to investors. Since launch, spot XRP ETFs have taken in $1.81 billion in net inflows, while their combined assets stand at $1.41 billion. The $400 million gap reflects losses on the money invested. Reconstructions of the funds’ cost bases put unrealized losses at $440 million. The six spot funds held 1.18 billion XRP worth $1.52 billion at the November 4 close, and that value has fallen since.
Underwater holders tend to hold rather than sell during declines, which is what this week’s zero flows show. They also tend to sell when prices recover toward their purchase price, which caps rallies. Investors who bought near the launch, when XRP traded above $2.00, would need XRP to rise 68% or more to break even. Investors who bought in September, when XRP traded near $1.50, would need a 26% gain. Each of those groups will add selling pressure as XRP approaches their entry levels.
For the forecast, the ETF cost basis creates overhead supply between $1.27 and $1.57. That zone includes the 200-day average, the 100-day average at $1.31, the 50-day average at $1.38 and the September high. Rallies into it will meet holders looking to reduce losses. Below the current price, the 52-week lows of the funds, equivalent to XRP near $0.99 to $1.01, are the levels where long-term buyers stepped in during August.
Spot ETF Flows: Three Days at Zero
US spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 after the end of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s long case against Ripple. Six spot funds trade, including the Bitwise XRP ETF and XRPR, and several futures-based and leveraged products sit alongside them. In their first months, the funds drew steady inflows, and cumulative net inflows reached $1.81 billion. The last session with a material inflow was October 29, when the funds took in $8.4 million.
Since then, flows have stopped. The spot funds recorded $530,000 of redemptions on November 2 and zero net flows on November 3, 4 and 5. On November 4, holdings across the funds fell by 64,826 XRP, worth $84,300, and over November 2 to 4 they fell by 259,700 XRP. About $14 million of ETF shares traded on November 3, so investors are still trading the funds but not adding to them.
Other crypto ETFs are worse. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $430.2 million on November 5, with none of the 12 funds recording an inflow, and $869.8 million over November’s first four sessions. Ether ETFs lost nearly $100 million on November 5. Solana ETFs lost $1.18 million. Against that backdrop, zero flows into XRP funds look like a holding pattern rather than an exit. Institutions are not selling XRP funds, but they are not buying either.
The lack of inflows matters because Ripple releases XRP from escrow on a regular schedule and sells part of it to fund operations. One estimate suggests ETFs would need to absorb about 200 million XRP a month to offset that supply. With flows at zero, that supply reaches a market with no steady buyer. Exchange outflows of 418.5 million XRP from Binance on November 4, worth $540 million, show some holders moving tokens to private storage, but that has not translated into price support.
For the forecast, daily ETF flow data is the most important signal. A return to inflows of $10 million or more a day would show institutional demand has resumed and would support a recovery toward $1.27. Sustained outflows, with ETF holders redeeming to cut losses, would confirm the bear case and push XRP toward $0.99. The funds’ Friday closes, at session lows, point to continued pressure into next week.
The Sell-Off: Wall Street, Bitcoin and $1.25 Billion in Liquidations
The trigger for this week’s decline came from the equity market. On Thursday, the Nasdaq fell 5.52% to 24,315, entering correction territory more than 10% below its October 6 record. The S&P 500 lost 4.36%, its worst day since April 2025, and the Dow fell 1,833 points. The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped more than 12%. Democrats’ sweep of both chambers of Congress raised fears of tighter regulation of AI, and the selling spread to crypto.
Bitcoin fell from above $80,000 on Wednesday to an intraday low of $75,114 on Thursday and $75,200 on Friday, its lowest level since mid-September. It closed Friday near $75,625. Ether lost 7.29% to $2,247.74. Crypto derivatives liquidations reached $1.25 billion in 24 hours, with $1.12 billion of that from leveraged long positions. In one four-hour window, $818.90 million of long positions were liquidated.
XRP’s own liquidations were smaller but one-sided. XRP derivatives saw $22.59 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 96.6% of the total. More than 4,500 traders lost positions. Those traders had bought the post-election bounce to $1.34 with leverage, and the fall to $1.18 wiped them out. Social sentiment toward XRP fell to its lowest level since July.
XRP fell more than Bitcoin. Over 30 days, XRP is down 8.8% against Bitcoin, and over 24 hours it fell 2.3% more. XRP behaves as a high-beta version of Bitcoin in a falling market: it drops further on bad days and recovers less on good ones. Its correlation with the Nasdaq has also risen, as institutions treat crypto as a risk asset to cut alongside technology stocks.
For the forecast, XRP’s direction depends on Bitcoin and the Nasdaq. If Bitcoin holds $75,000 and recovers toward $80,000, XRP can retest $1.27. If Bitcoin breaks below $75,000 toward $70,000, XRP’s beta points to $1.10 and then $0.99. Ripple-specific news can lift XRP for a session, but over the next six weeks the broader market will set the trend.
Ripple’s Institutional Push: BNY, Robinhood, RLUSD
Ripple’s business has had a strong autumn. At its Swell 2026 conference on October 27, Ripple announced that BNY now custodies XRP and its RLUSD stablecoin for institutional clients on its Digital Asset Custody platform. BNY, which has held RLUSD’s reserves since July 2025, is also working on a channel that would let its clients mint and redeem RLUSD directly. The two companies plan to support more tokenized assets issued on the XRP Ledger.
Robinhood is bringing RLUSD to its app. The stablecoin already trades on Robinhood Chain and on Bitstamp by Robinhood, and the partnership extends to treasury management, lending and trading through Ripple Prime, Ripple’s institutional brokerage. Separately, Ripple partnered with C2FO to settle trade finance payments for its Instant Pay service on the XRP Ledger using RLUSD. RLUSD has reached a market capitalization of $2.57 billion, with nearly $1 billion issued on the XRP Ledger.
The XRP Ledger is also being upgraded. On November 4, the ledger activated the fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment, which closed a vulnerability in which accounts with certain token-burning permissions could mint tokens by mistake. XRP’s native supply was not affected. The ledger added 7,934 new wallets on November 1, its sixth-highest daily total of 2026. A separate lending feature remains on hold.
None of this has created demand for the token. RLUSD’s reserves are cash and Treasuries, not XRP. BNY custody makes XRP easier for institutions to hold but does not require anyone to buy it. Trade finance on the XRP Ledger uses XRP only for transaction fees, which are fractions of a cent. Ripple’s growth makes the network more valuable, but the market has not decided how much of that value flows to XRP itself.
For the forecast, Ripple’s announcements are a long-term positive with little near-term effect. XRP has fallen 18.1% over 30 days, a period that includes some of Ripple’s most significant partnerships. The token needs a clear link between Ripple’s institutional business and XRP purchases, such as BNY or Robinhood clients using XRP for settlement rather than only custody, before partnership news can move the price.
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Whales Buying, Retail Selling
On-chain data shows a split between large and small holders. Large XRP holders have bought about 60 million XRP over the past seven days, according to on-chain tracking. Exchange outflows have surged, with 418.5 million XRP leaving Binance on November 4 alone, the largest single-day outflow from that exchange in nine months. Large holders moving XRP off exchanges usually signals accumulation for the long term.
Retail traders are selling. Social sentiment toward XRP fell to its lowest level since July, and leveraged long traders lost $21.8 million in Friday’s liquidations. The 2x XRP funds fell 9.9% on Friday, and their declines show that short-term traders are leaving. The ETF data, with zero inflows, shows that US investors buying through brokerage accounts are not adding positions either.
The divergence often appears near market lows. When large holders buy while retail sentiment hits extremes of pessimism, prices have historically found a floor within weeks. Contrarian traders look for that combination of whale accumulation, negative sentiment and liquidated leverage as a sign that selling is close to exhaustion. All three are present this week.
But accumulation is not the same as a reversal. Whales buying 60 million XRP over a week represents about $71 million at current prices, a small amount relative to XRP’s $2.55 billion daily trading volume and $75.44 billion market capitalization. Large holders can accumulate for weeks or months while the price keeps falling. The August low of $0.99 came after a similar period of whale buying and negative sentiment.
For the forecast, the whale data supports the idea that a bottom is forming in the $0.99 to $1.20 zone, but it does not point to an immediate recovery. A sustained rebound needs retail and institutional demand to return, through ETF inflows and a recovery in sentiment. Until then, large holders are absorbing supply without lifting the price.
Washington and the Fed: Two Headwinds
The election has changed the regulatory picture. Democrats will control both chambers of Congress when the new session begins on January 3, 2027. A senator who has criticized the industry is expected to chair the Senate Banking Committee, and House Democrats are considering a crypto market structure bill with stronger investor protections and more oversight from the Securities and Exchange Commission. Democrats also plan to investigate the Trump family’s crypto ventures.
For XRP, the SEC’s authority is the key issue. Ripple spent years in litigation with the SEC over whether XRP was a security. The case ended, and the ETFs launched under a framework that treated XRP as a commodity-like asset. A market structure bill that gives the SEC more power to classify tokens would revive some of that uncertainty. A divided government limits how far Democrats can go, since the president can veto legislation, but the political tailwind that helped XRP in 2025 has gone.
The Fed adds pressure. Friday’s October jobs report showed payrolls rising by 165,000 against a 70,000 consensus and unemployment falling to 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Futures now price a 74.8% chance that the Fed will raise rates on December 9. The two-year Treasury yield is at 4.54% and the ten-year at 4.90%. The dollar index rose 0.63% to 102.12 on Friday, its biggest gain in seven weeks.
Higher rates hurt XRP in two ways. They raise the cost of holding an asset that pays no yield, since investors can earn close to 4% on cash. They also strengthen the dollar, which tends to weigh on crypto. A Fed that keeps hiking into 2027 would make it harder for XRP to recover its September levels, and harder for the ETFs to attract new money from institutions comparing them with bonds.
For the forecast, Washington and the Fed are background headwinds. Neither will change XRP’s price on its own in the next six weeks, but together they reduce the chance of a sustained rally. Tuesday’s US consumer price index is the first test. A hot core reading would lock in the December hike and push XRP lower. A soft reading would lower the hike odds and give crypto room to recover.
Supply: 63.4 Billion Tokens and Escrow Releases
XRP has 63.4 billion tokens in circulation out of a fixed supply of 100 billion. The rest is held by Ripple, much of it in escrow that releases on a regular schedule. Ripple sells part of the released XRP to fund its operations and its expanding product lineup, including RLUSD, Ripple Prime and its custody business. That creates a steady stream of supply that the market has to absorb.
The ETFs hold a small share. The six spot funds hold 1.18 billion XRP, 1.86% of circulating supply. Over the year since launch, they have added that amount. Escrow releases and Ripple’s sales over the same period have been several times larger. With ETF flows at zero, there is no regular buyer absorbing new supply, which adds steady pressure on the price.
The debate over Ripple’s sales has resurfaced this week. Supporters argue that Ripple uses XRP sales to fund products that increase demand for the network. Critics point out that XRP’s price has fallen 67% from its July 2025 high while Ripple has kept selling. The truth sits between: Ripple’s sales are a source of supply, and its products have not yet created enough demand to offset them.
XRP’s valuation rests on expectations about future use. At $75.44 billion, its market value is far larger than RLUSD’s $2.57 billion market capitalization and the fee revenue the XRP Ledger generates. Investors are paying for the possibility that XRP becomes a bridge asset for cross-border payments, collateral for tokenized markets or a reserve asset for institutions. Each is plausible. None is happening at scale today.
For the forecast, supply is a slow but constant pressure. In a rising market, escrow releases are absorbed easily. In a falling market with no ETF demand, they add to the decline. Over the next six weeks, supply will not drive the price on its own, but it limits how quickly XRP can recover without a new source of buyers.
The Technical Map: $1.19685 Support, $1.24333 and $1.27 Resistance
XRP is sitting on its most important short-term support. The October 30 low of $1.19685 is the floor that held through the past week. Thursday’s low of $1.19797 came within $0.00112 of it, and Friday’s intraday low of $1.18 broke through briefly before XRP recovered to $1.19. A daily close below $1.19685 would confirm the break and target $1.10, the top of the summer trading range, 7.6% below the current price.
Below $1.10, the major support is the August 17 low of $0.99, also XRP’s 12-month low and the bottom of its 52-week range of $0.9886 to $2.5797. That is 16.8% below the current price. XRP spent most of the summer between $0.90 and $1.10 before a 56% rally in a single week lifted it toward $1.57. A return to $0.99 would erase that rally and put the XRP ETFs at new 52-week lows: XRPR near $7.96, below its $8.10 low, and the XRPI fund near $5.20, below its $5.42 low.
Resistance starts at $1.23364 and $1.24333, two levels that supported XRP earlier in the week and were lost on Thursday. A daily close above $1.24333 would reclaim Monday’s range and give buyers a chance to retest the 200-day average at $1.27, 6.7% above the current price. Above that, the 100-day average sits at $1.31, the 50-day average at $1.38 and the September 23 high at $1.57. The moving averages are stacked in bearish order, with the 50-day above the 100-day above the 200-day, and the price below all three.
Momentum is weak but approaching oversold. The daily relative strength index fell to 35.71 on Thursday, close to the 30 level that marks oversold conditions. Oversold readings often produce relief rallies, as the 2% gains on Tuesday and Wednesday showed. In a downtrend, those rallies tend to stall at the first resistance, which is $1.24333 to $1.27.
The ETF levels map directly. The Bitwise XRP ETF trades at roughly $10.97 per $1 of XRP, so XRP at $1.27 corresponds to $13.93 and XRP at $0.99 to $10.86. XRPR trades at roughly $8.04 per $1 of XRP, so XRP at $1.27 corresponds to $10.21. The XRPI fund trades at roughly $5.25 per $1 of XRP, so XRP at $1.38 corresponds to $7.25. Traders who prefer the ETFs to spot XRP can use these conversions with small adjustments for fees.
Event Risks: CPI, ETF Flows, Bitcoin and the Fed
Five events will drive XRP over the next six weeks. The first is Tuesday’s October US consumer price index. After the strong jobs report, inflation data will decide whether the Fed hikes on December 9. A core reading at or above 0.3% on the month would push the December hike odds above 90%, strengthen the dollar and weigh on crypto. A soft reading would lower the odds and support a rebound.
The second is daily XRP ETF flow data. Three straight days of zero flows is a warning. A return to daily inflows would show institutions are buying the dip and would support a recovery toward $1.27. Outflows on the scale of Bitcoin ETFs’ $430.2 million day would push XRP through support. The funds’ Friday closes at session lows suggest the pressure has not yet eased.
The third is Bitcoin. XRP has followed Bitcoin closely this week, with greater swings. Bitcoin closed Friday near $75,625, holding its prior low. A break below $75,000 would likely take XRP below $1.19685. A recovery above $80,000 would give XRP room to rally toward the 200-day average.
The fourth is the Fed decision on December 9. A hike to 4.00% to 4.25% is mostly priced in, but the Fed’s projections for 2027 will matter. A signal that more hikes are coming would weigh on crypto into year-end. A signal that the Fed is near the end of its cycle would support a recovery.
The fifth is Washington. Committee assignments for the new Congress will be confirmed in the coming weeks, and Democrats’ plans for crypto legislation will become clearer. A Senate Banking chair focused on investor protection and SEC authority would add to regulatory uncertainty. Hearings on the Trump family’s crypto ventures would keep the sector in the political spotlight. Any of these can move XRP several percent in a session.
Scenario Map: $1.38 Upside, $1.05–$1.32 Base, $0.99 Downside
Our forecast covers the period to the Fed decision on December 9, with three scenarios.
The base case, at 50% probability, is a range of $1.05 to $1.32, with a midpoint of $1.18. In this scenario, Bitcoin trades between $72,000 and $82,000, the equity market stabilizes and the Fed hikes on December 9 as priced. XRP ETF flows stay close to zero. XRP breaks below $1.19685 at least once and tests $1.10, then recovers toward $1.24333 to $1.27 without closing above the 200-day average for long. The Bitwise XRP ETF trades between $11.52 and $14.48, and XRPR between $8.44 and $10.61.
The bearish case, at 30% probability, is a fall to the August low of $0.99, 16.8% below the current price. This would follow a hot US CPI print, a Bitcoin break below $75,000 toward $70,000 and further weakness in technology stocks. ETF holders would start redeeming to cut losses, and the remaining leveraged long positions would be liquidated. XRPR would fall to $7.96, below its 52-week low of $8.10, and the XRPI fund to $5.20, below its low of $5.42. A daily close below $0.99 would take XRP into the summer range of $0.90 to $1.10.
The bullish case, at 20% probability, is a recovery to the 50-day average at $1.38, 16.0% above the current price. This would need a soft US CPI print, a Bitcoin recovery above $80,000 and a return to daily ETF inflows. Whale accumulation would continue, and retail sentiment would recover from its July lows. A close above $1.38 would open the September high of $1.57. The Bitwise XRP ETF would trade near $15.14, XRPR near $11.10 and the XRPI fund near $7.25.
From $1.19, the risk-reward is skewed lower. The bullish target is 16.0% away, the bearish target 16.8% away, and the bearish scenario carries 10 percentage points more probability. The signals that will decide which scenario plays out, in order of importance, are the October 30 low at $1.19685, daily XRP ETF flows, Bitcoin’s hold of $75,000, Tuesday’s CPI, and the Fed decision on December 9.
Verdict: Bearish-Neutral, Sell Rallies Into $1.24–$1.27, Target $1.10, Then $0.99
XRP at $1.19 has fallen to an 11-week low after touching $1.18, its first trade below $1.19 since late August. It closed Thursday down 7.46% at $1.2075 and has lost another 1.5% since. The spot XRP ETFs fell in step on Friday: the Bitwise XRP ETF lost 4.74% to $13.06, XRPR lost 4.73% to $9.57, closing at its session low, and the XRPI fund lost 4.87% to $6.25. The 2x funds fell 9.92% and 9.87%. XRPR sits 55.0% below its 52-week high and 18.1% above its low, and the XRPI fund 59.0% below its high and 15.3% above its low.
Demand is missing. Spot XRP ETFs recorded zero net flows on November 3, 4 and 5, and cumulative inflows of $1.81 billion stand against $1.41 billion in assets, leaving holders with $440 million of unrealized losses. Ripple’s partnerships with BNY and Robinhood and RLUSD’s growth to $2.57 billion have not brought buyers to the token. Retail sentiment is at its lowest since July, and leveraged longs lost $21.8 million on Friday. Whales have bought 60 million XRP in seven days, but that has not been enough to stop the decline.
The broader market adds pressure. The Nasdaq’s 5.52% fall, Bitcoin’s drop to $75,200, $1.25 billion of crypto liquidations, a Fed priced at 74.8% for a December hike and a Democratic Congress focused on SEC oversight all weigh on XRP. The token trades as a high-beta version of Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is near its own key support.
Our call is bearish-neutral. We would sell rallies into $1.24 to $1.27, between Thursday’s broken support and the 200-day average, with a first target of $1.10, 7.6% below the current price, and an extended target of the August low at $0.99 if Bitcoin breaks $75,000. At $0.99, XRPR would trade near $7.96 and the Bitwise fund near $10.86. A daily close above $1.27 would neutralize the view, and a close above $1.38 would invalidate it and open $1.57. The base-case range into the December 9 Fed decision is $1.05 to $1.32. Until the ETFs start taking in money again, XRP will keep following the broader crypto market lower.