Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Climbs to $3,346 as Fed Cut Bets Signal Rally Toward $4,200

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Trades at $3,346 as Institutional Demand, Fed Easing, and Record Supply Scarcity Reinforce Bullish Setup

ETH Price Action and Market Context

Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades at $3,346.38, up 0.78% as of Dec 10, 16:22 UTC, consolidating after a week-long surge above $3,300. The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency now commands a $401 billion market capitalization, extending its recovery from the November lows near $2,700. The current structure remains bullish after clearing the $3,100 resistance, with price momentum driven by whale accumulation and speculation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

Institutional Accumulation Drives Structural Liquidity Shift

Large holders controlling 10,000–100,000 ETH have accumulated nearly 400,000 ETH over two sessions—worth approximately $1.34 billion—as U.S. investors re-enter the market. The Coinbase Premium Index remains positive, confirming domestic inflow strength. On the derivatives side, open interest expanded by 440,000 ETH to 12.48 million, marking a renewed positioning wave before the Fed meeting. Simultaneously, short liquidations totaling $105 million confirm momentum alignment with long exposure.

Exchange Reserves Collapse to Record Lows

Ethereum’s liquid supply continues to tighten. Only 8.7 % of total ETH—around 16.6 million coins—remains on centralized exchanges, down nearly 20 % since July 2025. Institutional activity, including Bitmine’s $435 million purchase, has reduced available float and amplified scarcity. Compared to Bitcoin’s 14.8 % exchange ratio, Ethereum now faces a far sharper liquidity squeeze. This decline marks a shift toward long-term holding via staking, restaking, and institutional custody, effectively locking coins “in places that don’t sell.”

Technical Structure Confirms Bullish Breakout Zone

ETH maintains an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout that remains valid above $2,710. A developing bullish EMA crossover between the 20- and 50-day averages suggests acceleration if ETH closes above $3,390. The next resistance levels stand at $3,570 and $3,710, while support rests near $3,100 and $2,850. The RSI near 61 supports bullish continuation, though an overbought Stochastic Oscillator hints at possible near-term pauses.

Profit Pressure Measured Against Institutional Absorption

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) index climbed to 0.296, its highest since November, usually a profit-taking zone. Historically, this triggers 5–6 % pullbacks; however, current institutional absorption offsets retail selling. Over 934,000 ETH ($3.1 billion) has been accumulated by whales in three weeks, while small investors sold roughly 1,000 ETH, showing the market’s shift toward concentrated ownership.

Macro Policy And Fed Liquidity Tailwinds

Expectations for a 25 bps rate cut and potential $45 billion monthly debt buyback from the Fed are re-pricing crypto risk upward. The end of quantitative tightening on Dec 1 aligns with the ETH-BTC pair breakout, suggesting Ethereum’s lead in the next altcoin cycle. President Trump’s remarks favoring a liquidity-focused Fed Chair accelerated fund flows into ETH ETFs.

Network Strength After Fusaka Upgrade

Following the Fusaka upgrade on Dec 3, gas efficiency improved and exchange balances fell to 16.8 million ETH. Over 32.4 million ETH is now staked—27 % of total supply—establishing structural scarcity. Layer-2 ecosystems such as Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism continue to expand TVL, reinforcing ETH’s network dominance.

ETF Inflows and Institutional Legitimization

The BlackRock Staked Ethereum ETF has drawn $620 million in its first 10 days, while Bitwise’s 10 Crypto Index ETF increased institutional exposure to ETH. These vehicles funnel traditional capital directly into on-chain yield, deepening demand and removing liquid supply from exchanges.

Derivative Positioning and Short-Term Risks

Leverage positioning remains elevated but stable. The funding rate neutrality indicates sustainable demand rather than excess speculation. Key resistance sits at $3,470–$3,500; clearing this zone confirms continuation to $3,710–$3,800. Failure here exposes $3,100 and $2,850 support layers.

Outlook and Rating

With exchange supply at record lows, institutional inflows rising, and monetary policy turning dovish, Ethereum (ETH-USD) remains in a strong structural uptrend. Short-term corrections are likely but shallow. Data support a BUY bias, targeting $3,710–$4,000 through Q1 2026, contingent on the Fed’s easing cycle and sustained staking growth.

That's TradingNEWS