EURUSD Tests 1.1400 on Fed Hike Bets — 150bp Rate Gap Targets 1.1300 Downside

The euro is losing a race between two central banks that are both tightening. EUR/USD traded at 1.1401 by 15:00 GMT on Wednesday, sliding toward the 1.1400 handle and back to levels last seen in late July. The pair had already started the European session weak, with the euro at $1.1446 in early trading, near its weakest level since late July. The trigger for the second leg lower was a blowout U.S. business survey that pushed markets to price a second Federal Reserve hike in October.

The setup is unusual. For most of the past decade, EUR/USD moved on divergence between a hiking Fed and an easing or idle ECB. In 2026 both central banks are raising rates into an energy shock from the Middle East war. The Fed lifted the federal funds target to a 3.75% to 4.00% range on September 16. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on September 10, its second hike since the war began. Both are fighting the same inflation impulse, but the U.S. economy is running far hotter, and that gives the Fed more room to keep going.

Wednesday's data made that gap explicit. The U.S. composite PMI jumped to 58.4 with services at 58.7 and manufacturing at 57.0, five-year highs, and input costs rose at the fastest rate since October 2022. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.058%, its highest since July 2007, and the 2-year climbed to 4.874%. The euro area, by contrast, is growing near 0.9% this year on the ECB's own forecast, with its largest economies carrying political risk in Berlin and fiscal risk in Paris.

The dollar index rose 0.4% after the U.S. data to its strongest level since late July, and it held near 100.56. Sterling traded at $1.3337. The move was broad-based dollar strength, but the euro took an extra hit from the combination of an energy-importing economy, political stress and a central bank that cannot match the Fed's pace.

The thesis for this forecast is direct. The policy gap drives EUR/USD, and on Wednesday it widened. With the fed funds ceiling at 4.00% and the ECB deposit rate at 2.50%, the headline rate differential stands at 150 basis points in the dollar's favour. As long as the U.S. 2-year yield holds near 4.87% and October Fed hike odds stay above 50%, the path of least resistance runs lower, toward 1.1350 and a test of 1.1300. The euro regains traction only if the Fed signals a pause, oil breaks lower on an Iran deal, or euro area data surprises sharply enough to pull ECB pricing higher.

Session Tape: From 1.1446 to the 1.1400 Handle

The European morning set a defensive tone. The euro opened near $1.1446, lingering around its weakest level since late July, as expectations of near-term Fed rate hikes kept the dollar near a two-month high. Easing oil prices on hopes for an Iran deal offered some support to the single currency, but not enough to lift it off the lows.

That fragile balance held into the European data window. The euro area flash PMIs landed without a meaningful surprise. The manufacturing gauge held unchanged at 52.7 against a 52.6 forecast, while the output index rose to 53.4 from 53.3, its highest in 55 months. A solid factory print kept the euro from breaking lower in the European session, but it did nothing to change the policy picture.

The move came at 13:45 GMT with the U.S. release. The composite reading of 58.4 against 56.0 in August, manufacturing at 57.0 against a 53.5 forecast and services at 58.7 against 56.0 sent the 10-year Treasury yield up 9.4 basis points to 5.042% within minutes, and the dollar index jumped 0.4%. EUR/USD dropped from the mid-1.14s into the 1.1400 area over the following hour. By 15:00 GMT the pair sat at 1.1401, near late-July levels.

The shape of the day matters. The pair did not collapse; it stepped lower in two legs, each tied to a specific data point. The first leg, from the prior session into the 1.1446 area, reflected the lingering effect of Tuesday's Fed commentary and a firm dollar. The second leg, from the mid-1.14s to 1.1401, reflected the U.S. PMI and the jump in yields. There was no disorderly selling and no sign of a positioning squeeze.

Cross-asset moves confirmed the dollar-strength reading. Gold futures fell $58.30, or 1.33%, to $4,318.10, and Bitcoin slid 2.30% to $84,255.74. The S&P 500 lost 0.54% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.06%. Every asset that competes with the dollar or with Treasury yields lost ground on the same shock.

Oil added a second layer later in the morning. WTI crude reversed from an early $89.64 to $91.92, up 1.55%, after an armed group shut a pipeline valve at Libya's El Sharara field, which supplies a third of the country's output. For an energy importer like the euro area, rising crude is a direct terms-of-trade hit, and it reinforced the euro's slide into the 1.1400 area.

The level to watch for the rest of the session is 1.1400. A close below that round number marks a fresh two-month low and opens the next leg lower. A rebound back above 1.1446 would signal that the post-PMI move has run its course.

The U.S. PMI Shock: Why a 58.4 Print Moves EUR/USD

The U.S. data did most of the day's work. The composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August. Manufacturing climbed to 57.0 from 53.9, far above the 53.5 forecast, and services rose to 58.7 against a 56.0 consensus. Both sector gauges hit five-year highs, the strongest outside the pandemic period since 2015. The survey showed a sharp rise in prices paid by businesses, adding directly to inflation concerns.

The internals point the same way. Average input costs across goods and services rose at the fastest pace since October 2022, with firms citing fuel, transport and wages. Backlogs grew at the fastest rate since May 2022, factory hiring rose at the quickest pace since February 2021, and new orders in both manufacturing and services grew at their strongest rates since spring 2022. The data point to annualized growth near 5% and a 4% third quarter.

For EUR/USD, the mechanism runs through rate expectations. A U.S. economy expanding at a 4% to 5% pace with accelerating input costs leaves the Fed with no reason to pause after its September hike. Traders raised their bets on an October Fed hike after the release, and the odds climbed above 53%. The 2-year yield, the most policy-sensitive part of the curve, rose almost 10 basis points on the day to 4.874%, a new cycle high.

That front-end move is what hurts the euro. Currency markets price the interest-rate differential between two economies, and the most relevant differential for EUR/USD sits at the 2-year point, where policy expectations dominate. When the U.S. 2-year jumps 10 basis points in a day and European yields move far less, the carry advantage of holding dollars over euros widens immediately. Capital follows the higher yield.

The contrast with the euro area is stark. The ECB's own projections put euro area growth at 0.9% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027. A U.S. economy running at four to five times that pace generates more inflation pressure, which requires tighter policy, which supports the dollar. The growth gap feeds the rate gap, and the rate gap drives the currency.

The ECB offers little counterweight right now. ECB hike prospects gave the euro little support on Wednesday. Markets already expect the ECB to stay on a tightening bias, but the scope for further hikes is limited by weak growth and political risk. The Fed, by contrast, has a booming economy that can absorb more tightening without tipping into recession. Until that asymmetry changes, strong U.S. data will keep translating into a weaker EUR/USD.

Fed at 4.00%, ECB at 2.50%: The 150-Basis-Point Gap

The policy gap is the anchor for any EUR/USD forecast. On September 16, the Fed voted unanimously to raise the federal funds target by 25 basis points to a 3.75% to 4.00% range, its first increase since July 2023, and signalled another hike could come this year. Six days earlier, on September 10, the ECB lifted its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% from 2.25% and its main refinancing rate to 2.65%, its second hike since the U.S.-Iran war began.

The arithmetic is simple. The fed funds ceiling at 4.00% sits 150 basis points above the ECB deposit rate at 2.50%. Both central banks moved by the same 25 basis points in September, so the gap did not change on the decisions themselves. What changed on Wednesday was the expected path. Markets now price better-than-even odds of a second Fed hike in October, while the ECB faces growth constraints that limit its follow-through.

The Fed's messaging reinforces the hawkish path. Chair Kevin Warsh declined to offer forward guidance after the September hike and argued policy had never been tight before the move. On Tuesday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin warned that inflation shocks could take time to fade, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins backed the hike amid concern that inflation could stay above 2%. Three consistent hawkish messages in one week leave little room for a dovish surprise.

The ECB is hawkish too, but with qualifiers. ECB President Christine Lagarde said after the September decision that risks to growth are tilted to the downside while inflation risks are tilted to the upside, and reiterated that decisions will be taken meeting by meeting. Downside growth risks are the key phrase for currency traders. A central bank that sees growth risks as downside-skewed will hike more cautiously than one facing a 58.4 PMI.

The long end of the curve tells the same story. The U.S. 10-year at 5.058% sits 106 basis points above the fed funds ceiling, reflecting both expected hikes and a term premium driven by strong growth and heavy capital demand from the AI buildout. U.S. yields at that level attract global capital, including European savings, into dollar assets. Every basis point of U.S. yield above European yields strengthens that pull.

For the forecast, the gap needs to narrow for EUR/USD to recover meaningfully. That requires either a Fed pause, which would compress the expected differential, or an ECB acceleration, which would require stronger euro area inflation data. Neither looks likely before the October meetings. The 150-basis-point headline gap, with a widening expected gap, points to a lower EUR/USD through October.

The ECB's September Hike: 3.0% Inflation and a 0.9% Growth Problem

The ECB's September decision explains why the euro gets limited support from higher European rates. The central bank raised its deposit rate to 2.50% and its main refinancing rate to 2.65%, citing the Middle East conflict as a continued source of inflation pressure, with inflation expected to stay well above the 2% target for an extended period.

The staff projections are the heart of the problem. The ECB kept its 2026 inflation forecast at 3.0% but raised its projections for 2027 and 2028 to 2.5% and 2.1%. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, is projected at 2.5% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028. An upward revision to the outer years means the ECB sees the energy shock feeding into wages and services prices, which argues for a longer tightening bias.

Growth is the constraint. The ECB raised its growth forecasts to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027, reflecting stronger-than-expected resilience, while leaving 2028 unchanged at 1.5%. A 0.9% growth rate against 3.0% inflation is a stagflationary mix. The ECB can hike into that, but each hike carries a real risk of pushing the economy toward stagnation. That limits how far and how fast the ECB can go.

The path to this point matters. On June 11, the ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points, lifting the deposit facility to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate to 2.40% and the marginal lending facility to 2.65%, with baseline projections at the time showing headline inflation of 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. In July, the ECB held at 2.25% as euro area inflation eased to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, but warned that renewed disruption to energy supplies could keep prices higher for longer. September's hike delivered on that warning.

The inflation trajectory gives the ECB a partial case for more. With headline inflation projected at 3.0% for 2026 and the ECB warning that higher energy prices drive broader inflation through second-round effects, a third hike later in the year is possible. But markets already price that bias into the euro, and the ECB lacks the growth backdrop to outpace the Fed.

For EUR/USD, the ECB's stance works as a floor, not a lift. A central bank on a hiking bias prevents a collapse in the euro, because it keeps European yields rising alongside U.S. yields. It does not drive a rally, because it cannot match the Fed's pace. That leaves the pair drifting lower with the Fed in control of direction, cushioned from a sharp drop by an ECB that is also tightening.

Euro Area Growth: A 55-Month Factory High Meets Soft Services

The euro area economy is stronger than its reputation, which helps explain why EUR/USD has fallen gradually rather than sharply. The September flash manufacturing PMI held unchanged at 52.7, slightly above the 52.6 forecast, while the output index rose to 53.4 from 53.3, its highest in 55 months. New export orders rose again, employment held broadly steady, and purchasing activity increased for a second consecutive month.

The factory recovery has momentum. In August, the euro area flash composite PMI rose to 52.1 from 52.0 in July, a nine-month high above the 51.7 forecast, with factory output growing at its fastest pace in four and a half years. Germany led the gain with its strongest manufacturing expansion since January 2022, and export demand returned to growth for the first time in four and a half years. The final August composite came in at 52.0, with new export orders rising for the first time in four and a half years and employment expanding for the first time this year.

Services are the weaker half. The euro area services PMI eased to 51.6 in August from 51.7 in July, still consolidating a recovery after the Middle East war triggered an energy price surge that pushed PMIs into contraction in the three months to June. A services sector growing at a 51 to 52 pace does not generate the wage and price pressure that would force the ECB into aggressive tightening.

The comparison with the U.S. is what matters for the currency. A euro area composite near 52 against a U.S. composite at 58.4 is a growth gap of more than six points. U.S. services at 58.7 compare with euro area services near 51.6, a gap of seven points. Those gaps translate directly into rate expectations, because stronger growth sustains stronger inflation.

The quality of the euro area recovery also matters. Growth driven by manufacturing and exports is more sensitive to global demand and energy costs than growth driven by domestic services. A renewed oil spike or a slowdown in global trade would hit the euro area's factory sector first. With Libya supply disruptions pushing WTI back toward $92 and Brent near $99, that sensitivity is being tested right now.

For the forecast, euro area data acts as a stabilizer rather than a driver. Solid manufacturing numbers prevent a collapse in the euro, because they keep recession fears contained and support the ECB's hiking bias. They do not generate a rally, because they remain far weaker than U.S. data. EUR/USD needs a euro area composite pushing toward 54 or 55, alongside softer U.S. data, before the growth gap narrows enough to reverse the trend.

Oil at $92: The Euro's Energy Problem

Energy is the euro's structural weakness in 2026. The euro area imports the bulk of its oil and gas, so higher energy prices worsen its terms of trade, drain income abroad and hit growth. Every sustained move higher in crude weighs on the euro relative to the dollar, because the U.S. is a net energy producer and benefits from higher prices in its balance of payments.

Wednesday's oil move added pressure. Early in the day, WTI crude fell 0.97% to $89.64 and Brent slipped 0.24% to $99.01, as U.S.-Iran talks at the United Nations raised hopes for de-escalation. By mid-morning, WTI reversed to $91.92, up 1.55%, after an armed group shut a pipeline valve at Libya's El Sharara field. The swing of $2.28 in a few hours is a reminder of how fragile energy supply remains.

The euro felt that fragility on Tuesday as well. The euro weakened to $1.145, its lowest level since late July, as higher oil prices weighed on sentiment and the dollar stayed supported by expectations of further Fed rate hikes. Brent rose after touching its lowest level since September 10, keeping markets focused on energy flows and diplomatic efforts at the UN meetings.

The ECB is explicit about the energy channel. Lagarde warned that renewed disruption to energy supplies could lift energy prices further and for longer, and that the longer energy prices stay high, the more likely they are to drive broader inflation through indirect and second-round effects. That warning is the core of the ECB's hiking bias, but it is also the source of the euro's growth problem: the same energy shock that forces hikes also suppresses the economy.

The U.S. policy response adds a wrinkle. The administration is examining a ban on diesel exports to address record-high domestic diesel prices. Europe depends on U.S. diesel imports for part of its supply. A U.S. export ban would tighten European diesel markets, lift prices and add another inflation shock to the euro area just as growth is recovering. That scenario would be negative for EUR/USD on two fronts: weaker growth and a stronger dollar.

For the forecast, Brent at $100 is the key threshold. A sustained move back above $100 on Libya supply losses or a breakdown in Iran talks would likely push EUR/USD toward 1.1350 and possibly 1.1300. A decisive break below $95 on an Iran deal would ease the euro area's terms-of-trade pressure and give EUR/USD room to rebound toward 1.1500. Oil is the second most important driver of the pair after the rate gap.

Berlin and Paris: Political Risk Premium on the Euro

The euro carries a political risk premium that the dollar does not. In Germany, the governing CDU suffered its worst-ever state election result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, failing to win a single seat and prompting some party members to call for Chancellor Friedrich Merz to step down after 16 months in office. Leadership instability in the euro area's largest economy raises questions about fiscal policy, defence spending and industrial support at a time when Germany is leading the manufacturing recovery.

France is the larger concern for bond markets. The French government is struggling to reduce a budget deficit of more than 5% of GDP ahead of a divisive presidential election next year. France's public finances drew a ratings downgrade from one agency and a negative outlook revision from another, adding to a growing series of warnings about the country's fiscal position.

The channel to the currency runs through sovereign spreads. When French and other peripheral bond yields rise relative to German yields, investors price a higher risk of fragmentation within the euro area. That risk premium weighs on the euro regardless of what the ECB does with its policy rate. A widening French-German spread limits how much the ECB can tighten, because higher rates increase debt-servicing costs for fiscally stretched governments.

The timing is poor for the euro. Political risk tends to matter most when growth is weak and rates are rising, which is exactly the current environment. A euro area growing at 0.9% with a central bank hiking into an energy shock and two of its largest economies carrying political uncertainty is a fragile setup. Each factor alone might be manageable. Together they cap the euro's upside.

The U.S. has its own political calendar, but it is not weighing on the dollar. The midterm elections are six weeks away, and President Trump has signalled that an Iran deal is more likely after the vote. U.S. political noise has not translated into a dollar risk premium, largely because U.S. yields at 5% dominate every other consideration for global capital.

For the forecast, political risk works as a drag on rallies. Even if the Fed pauses or oil falls, any EUR/USD bounce toward 1.1500 is likely to meet selling from investors hedging European political risk. A decisive leadership change in Berlin or a fiscal agreement in Paris would remove part of that premium, but neither looks likely in the next few weeks. Until then, the euro trades with a built-in discount.

Dollar Strength Across the Board: DXY at 100.56 and the Cross-Asset Signal

Wednesday's EUR/USD move was part of a broad dollar rally. The dollar held near its strongest level in two months on prospects of near-term rate hikes, with the euro at $1.1446, sterling at $1.3337 and the dollar index at 100.56. After the U.S. PMI, the dollar index rose another 0.4%, a large move for that gauge, to its strongest level since late July.

The euro is the largest component of the dollar index, carrying a weight near 58%. That means a drop in EUR/USD mechanically lifts the index. But Wednesday's move was not a euro-only story. Sterling, the yen and commodity currencies also weakened, which confirms the driver is U.S. rates rather than a specific euro shock.

The recent recent history shows how quickly the dollar can turn. In July and August, coordinated yen-buying intervention between Japan and the United States pushed the dollar index toward 99.79, and EUR/USD rallied to its August top at 1.1711 on August 21. Since then, the Fed's hawkish turn has reversed that move. From 1.1711 to 1.1401, EUR/USD has fallen 310 pips, a 2.6% decline in five weeks.

The cross-asset map confirms the dollar-strength regime. Gold fell 1.33% to $4,318.10, Bitcoin dropped 2.30%, and equities slid, led by the Nasdaq's 1.06% loss. Rising U.S. yields and a stronger dollar hit every asset priced in dollars or competing with dollar yields. When the dollar strengthens against gold, crypto and equities at the same time, the move is driven by U.S. rates, not by euro weakness.

Sterling offers a useful comparison. With the Bank of England's rate well above the ECB's, sterling has held up better than the euro against the dollar through 2026. A pound at $1.3337 against a euro at $1.1401 puts EUR/GBP near 0.855, reflecting the relative weakness of the single currency. Rate differentials drive both crosses, and the euro sits at the low end of the G10 yield spectrum.

For the forecast, the dollar index at 100.56 is the key reference. A break above 101 on further hawkish Fed signals would likely push EUR/USD below 1.1350. A reversal back below 100, most likely on a dovish Fed surprise or a sharp drop in U.S. yields, would give EUR/USD room to reclaim 1.1500. The euro is not in control of its own direction; the dollar is.

Technical Map: The 200-Day Break, 1.1400 Handle and 1.1711 August Top

The chart turned bearish before Wednesday's data. EUR/USD broke below the critical 200-day simple moving average above 1.1620, a signal that the medium-term uptrend has ended. Once a major pair breaks its 200-day average, trend-following funds shift from buying dips to selling rallies, which adds persistent pressure.

Resistance is now layered above the market. The first level is 1.1446, Wednesday's early-session level and Tuesday's low zone. Above that, the provisional 55-day and 100-day simple moving averages at 1.1526 and 1.1542 form initial resistance before the more important 200-day average. Clearing the 200-day near 1.1620 would open the path back to the August top at 1.1711 from August 21.

The distance to those levels frames the risk-reward. From 1.1401, the 55-day average at 1.1526 sits 125 pips higher, a 1.1% move. The 200-day near 1.1620 sits 219 pips higher, a 1.9% move. The August top at 1.1711 sits 310 pips higher, a 2.7% move. Every one of those levels would require a change in the Fed outlook to reach.

Support is thinner. The 1.1400 handle is the immediate line, and Wednesday's trade already tested it. A daily close below 1.1400 would mark a fresh two-month low and open the path to 1.1350, the next round-number support. Below that, 1.1300 is the target for a sustained breakdown, 101 pips below the current level, a 0.9% move.

The moving average structure is bearish. With price below the 55-day, 100-day and 200-day averages, and the shorter averages at 1.1526 and 1.1542 sitting below the 200-day near 1.1620, the averages are stacked in a way that signals a downtrend. A bullish reversal would require price to reclaim the 55-day and 100-day averages first, which would take a move of more than 1%.

Momentum supports the downside view without signalling exhaustion. A 310-pip decline over five weeks is a steady trend, not a capitulation. Steady trends tend to extend until a fundamental catalyst reverses them. For EUR/USD, that catalyst would be a Fed pause or a sharp drop in oil.

The trading range for the rest of the week runs from 1.1350 to 1.1446. A break below 1.1350 sets up a test of 1.1300. A recovery above 1.1446 would signal the post-PMI selling is exhausted and put 1.1526 in play.

Iran, Xi and the Catalyst Calendar Through October

The next five weeks carry at least four catalysts that can move EUR/USD sharply. The first arrives Wednesday afternoon, when Fed remarks hit the tape. After a 58.4 PMI, a hawkish tone is priced. A dovish surprise would pull the U.S. 2-year lower and send EUR/USD back toward 1.1446. A repeat of the Barkin-Collins message keeps the pressure on 1.1400.

The second is Iran. The U.S. and Iran met for three hours at the United Nations on Tuesday, with Qatari mediation, and President Trump described the talks as very productive. Tehran denied it had dropped its preconditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and framed the exchange as a channel to restate its terms, including an end to the war, the lifting of the naval siege and the release of frozen assets. President Trump has signalled a deal is more likely after the midterm elections. An agreement that reopens Hormuz would pull oil sharply lower, ease the euro area's terms-of-trade pressure and likely push EUR/USD above 1.1500. A breakdown would do the opposite.

The third is the U.S.-China summit. President Xi Jinping's visit is his first to Washington in 11 years, with trade, rare earths, AI and the Iran war on the agenda. A trade de-escalation would support global growth and help the euro area's export-led recovery, a mild positive for EUR/USD. A breakdown over rare earths or chip exports would lift safe-haven demand for the dollar and weigh on the euro.

The fourth is the October policy meetings. The Fed meets October 28-29, and a second hike there would likely push EUR/USD toward 1.1300. A pause with a hawkish statement would likely spark a relief rally toward 1.1526. The ECB's next decision follows in the same window, and a third hike would narrow the rate gap at the margin, but only if the Fed holds.

Euro area data will fill the gaps between those events. September inflation data will show whether the energy shock is feeding into core prices, which would strengthen the case for another ECB hike. The final September PMIs will confirm whether the manufacturing recovery is holding. Neither is likely to shift the trend alone, but a hot euro area inflation print alongside a soft U.S. data point could trigger a short-covering rally.

The calendar favours volatility over direction in the near term. The direction comes from the Fed. The magnitude comes from oil and politics.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: 1.1350 Next, 1.1300 Risk, Verdict

The forecast breaks into three scenarios, each tied to the Fed-ECB rate gap and the oil price.

The base case is a grind lower toward 1.1350, then consolidation. The U.S. 2-year holds between 4.80% and 4.95%, October Fed hike odds stay above 50%, Brent trades between $95 and $102, and euro area data stays steady. EUR/USD breaks below 1.1400, tests 1.1350 and ranges between 1.1330 and 1.1450 into the October meetings. This path carries a 50% probability.

The bear case targets 1.1300, 0.9% below the current level. It requires the Fed to confirm an October hike, the U.S. 2-year to push toward 5.00%, Brent to break back above $100 on Libya supply losses or Iran escalation, and French or German political stress to widen euro area bond spreads. A daily close below 1.1350 would confirm the breakdown. A U.S. diesel export ban that tightens European fuel markets would add further pressure. This path carries a 30% probability.

The bull case targets 1.1526 and 1.1542, the 55-day and 100-day moving averages, 1.1% to 1.2% above the current level, with the 200-day near 1.1620 as an extension. It requires a dovish Fed signal that pushes October hike odds below 40%, a sharp drop in U.S. yields, and an Iran deal that pulls Brent below $95. A daily close above 1.1446 would signal the reversal. This path carries a 20% probability.

Levels to trade: resistance at 1.1446, 1.1526, 1.1542, 1.1620 and 1.1711. Support at 1.1400, 1.1350 and 1.1300.

The verdict on EUR/USD for September 23 is bearish. A 58.4 U.S. composite PMI pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.058%, the 2-year to a cycle high of 4.874% and October Fed hike odds above 53%, while the dollar index climbed to its strongest level since late July near 100.56. The ECB's hike to 2.50% on September 10 keeps a floor under the euro, but with the fed funds ceiling 150 basis points higher, euro area growth projected at 0.9%, oil back near $92 on the Libya outage and political risk in Berlin and Paris, the rate gap favours the dollar. EUR/USD sits below its 200-day average, trading at 1.1401 near late-July lows. Rallies toward 1.1446 and 1.1526 are selling opportunities while U.S. yields hold above 5%, with 1.1350 the next target and 1.1300 the risk if the Fed confirms an October hike.

That's TradingNEWS