Gold ($4,329) Defends $4,275 50-Day Average Into Warsh's First Hike — $4,522 Upside

Gold is under pressure for a clear reason. December gold futures traded at $4,329.80 an ounce at 11:50 a.m. ET, down $22.10 or 0.51%, while spot XAU/USD spent the Asian session swinging between a dip to $4,283 and a brief recovery above $4,300. The metal is coming off a one-month low of $4,253 printed on Monday and a third consecutive weekly decline. The cause is not a collapse in demand. It is the price of money.

The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.041% today, its highest level since 2007. The dollar index climbed above 99.50, a nearly two-week high. Fed funds futures show an 86.3% probability that the Federal Reserve lifts its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, the first hike since 2023. Every one of those numbers raises the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays no yield, and gold is absorbing all three at once.

What stands out is how little ground gold has actually surrendered. With a 10-year Treasury paying more than 5%, oil at $104.43 and a hike priced, gold has held above its 50-day simple moving average at $4,275 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June-to-August rally at $4,234. That $41 band is the line that matters. Buyers stepped in at $4,283 in Asia, $8 above the moving average, which tells you exactly where dip demand sits.

The structural bid explains the resilience. Global gold-backed ETFs took in $18 billion in August, the second-largest monthly inflow on record, pushing holdings up 121 tonnes to an all-time high of 4,189 tonnes and total assets to $615 billion. Central banks bought a record 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter. Those buyers are far less sensitive to a quarter-point rate move than momentum traders.

The damage from the peak is still real. Gold crossed $5,000 for the first time in January and set an intraday record above $5,500 before collapsing below $4,000 by late June. At $4,329.80, futures are 21% under that record. The rebound from the late-June low carried gold to $4,545.30 on August 19 and to the $4,600 area on August 25, and the last three weeks have given back $270 of that advance.

The forecast in this analysis rests on one thesis. The $4,234 to $4,275 floor is where official and ETF demand meets the rates trade, and Warsh's dot plot on Wednesday decides whether gold bounces toward $4,522 or breaks toward $4,108.

From $4,253 to $4,329.80: How the Last 48 Hours Unfolded

Monday set the tone. Gold fell 0.85% on the session and touched $4,253, its lowest level in more than a month, as the dollar strengthened and the 10-year yield broke above 5% for the first time since 2023. By Monday afternoon in New York, XAU/USD had recovered to $4,310, but the dollar index still sat up 0.32% at 99.41. The trigger was a Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline that forced a preventive shutdown and sent WTI crude above $100.

The overnight session brought a second leg lower. Gold slid to $4,295 in early Asian trade as rising bond yields and surging energy costs pushed hike expectations higher. Dip buyers then appeared in the $4,283 to $4,284 zone and lifted the metal back above $4,300. That bounce faded quickly. At 4 a.m. ET, December futures traded at $4,311.90, down $40.00 or 0.92%, while WTI futures stood at $103.55.

By 7 a.m. ET, futures had recovered modestly to $4,320.10, still down 0.73%. Silver dropped 0.76% to $63.65 an ounce at the same time. Oil was surging in that window, with WTI up 2.64% to $104.10 and Brent up 2.14% to $107.90.

The New York open delivered the day's best levels. At 10:04 a.m. ET, gold futures traded at $4,336.70, trimming the loss to 0.35%. That uptick lined up with a brief stall in the dollar. It did not last. As the 10-year Treasury yield climbed through 5.02% and then printed 5.041%, gold eased back to $4,329.80 by 11:50 a.m. ET. The S&P 500 was down 0.46% at 7,584.92 at that point, and the VIX had risen 3.22% to 17.65.

The pattern matters more than the net change. Gold has now been sold on three separate occasions in 48 hours: Monday's drop to $4,253, Tuesday's Asian dip to $4,283 and the U.S. morning fade from $4,336.70. Each low has been higher than the one before. That is not the footprint of capitulation. It is the footprint of a market absorbing macro selling at progressively firmer levels.

Gold's failure to rally on a geopolitical escalation is equally telling. Houthi forces launched a large missile and drone attack on a Saudi air base at Khamis Mushait on Monday, and a senior Iranian security official rejected immediate talks with Washington. In a normal cycle, that headline flow lifts gold. This week, it lifted the dollar instead.

The Fed's First Hike Since 2023: Why the Dot Plot Matters More Than the Move

The FOMC opened its two-day meeting this morning, and the hike is priced. Fed funds futures show an 86.3% probability of a 25-basis-point increase that would take the target range from 3.50% to 3.75% up to 3.75% to 4.00%. Some measures push that probability above 90%.

The data forced the move. August CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year. A key gauge of underlying inflation rose at its fastest pace in four months and came in slightly above expectations. August PPI also ran hot. The August jobs report showed payrolls rising by 162,000, far above consensus. Four weeks ago, the setup looked different: gold rallied more than 2% in early August after a weak employment report, and futures at one point priced a 65% chance the Fed would hold in September.

Chair Kevin Warsh shifted that calculus at Jackson Hole on August 28, arguing that softer summer inflation readings did not prove underlying trends had improved. The committee was already leaning hawkish, with three of 12 voters supporting a hike in July.

For gold, the hike is not the risk. The Summary of Economic Projections is. The June dot plot projected a federal funds rate of 3.8% by the end of 2026, implying one hike. Futures now price two quarter-point increases by December. There are three outcomes, and each maps to a gold price.

A median dot showing one hike would be the dovish surprise. Yields would ease, the dollar would retreat from 99.50 and gold would have room to reclaim the 38.2% retracement at $4,412. A median showing two hikes matches market pricing and leaves gold chopping between $4,275 and $4,412. A median showing three hikes, or a Warsh press conference framing this move as the start of a cycle, would push the 10-year further above 5% and send gold through $4,234.

The press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday carries more weight than the 2:00 p.m. statement. A message that this is a single recalibration caps the damage to non-yielding assets. A message that persistent energy-driven inflation requires more tightening extends it.

The history of hiking cycles offers gold a quiet advantage. The metal has historically sold off into the first hike, when expectations peak, and stabilized once the tightening path becomes visible. With 86.3% already priced, much of that pre-hike selling may already be behind the market.

The 10-Year at 5.041%: The Opportunity-Cost Problem Gold Cannot Ignore

The Treasury market is the single biggest force weighing on gold this week. The 10-year yield rose four basis points to 5.02% early Tuesday and extended to 5.041%, clearing its 2023 peak and reaching the highest level since 2007. On Monday it briefly crossed 5% for the first time in three years.

The move has been fast. The 10-year sat at 4.7% on August 24. As of the September 11 close, the curve showed the 2-year at 4.63%, the 5-year at 4.79%, the 10-year at 4.98% and the 30-year at 5.36%. Today's 5.041% print adds another six basis points on top of that in two sessions. A surge in public and corporate borrowing has fed a global bond selloff that is not confined to the United States.

The mechanism is straightforward. An investor choosing between a 10-year Treasury paying 5.041% and a bar of gold paying nothing now gives up more than $5 a year for every $100 held in bullion. When the 10-year paid 4.7% three weeks ago, that cost was $4.70. The rise sounds small, but it applies to trillions of dollars of allocation decisions made by pension funds and insurers with fixed return targets.

The curve shape adds a second layer. Long yields are rising faster than short yields, which signals that bondholders are demanding a larger term premium, not simply pricing more Fed hikes. Term premium rises on fiscal concern, heavy issuance and inflation uncertainty. Those are, in theory, gold-positive forces. That tension explains why gold is falling far less than the yield surge would suggest on its own.

The Treasury has already shown what happens when it leans against rising yields. On August 19, a surprise liquidity support announcement knocked long yields and the dollar lower. Spot gold jumped 3.4% to $4,479.84 that day, touching $4,491.16, its highest level since June 4, while futures settled up 2.8% at $4,545.30. The dollar index fell 0.8%. That session is a template for gold's upside if yields reverse.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testified before the House Financial Services Committee today, with inflation, interest rates and the federal debt on the agenda. Any signal about expanded buybacks or a shift in issuance toward shorter maturities would pull long yields lower and offer gold the kind of catalyst it received on August 19. Absent that intervention, 5% on the 10-year remains a ceiling on every gold rally.

The Dollar Above 99.50: A Haven Competing With Gold for the Same Flows

The dollar is winning the safe-haven contest this week, and gold is paying for it. The dollar index rose 0.32% to 99.41 on Monday and pushed above 99.50 on Tuesday, a nearly two-week high. Gold is priced in dollars, so every tick higher in the index makes bullion more expensive for buyers holding euros, yen, rupees and yuan.

Three forces are driving the dollar at once. Higher Treasury yields attract foreign capital into dollar assets. Fed hike expectations widen the rate gap against most major central banks. And persistent Middle East uncertainty is pulling defensive money into the world's reserve currency. That third force is the one that usually belongs to gold.

The breadth of the dollar's move shows how broad the bid is. The dollar gained 0.44% against the New Zealand dollar, 0.29% against the Australian dollar, 0.22% against the Japanese yen and 0.11% against both the euro and the British pound in Asian trading. USD/JPY pushed toward 155.00. The Australian dollar sat below 0.7150, close to a three-week low.

The central bank calendar reinforces the dollar's advantage. The Bank of England is expected to hold its policy rate at 3.75% on Thursday. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on Friday. A Fed hike to 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday keeps U.S. policy rates well above Japan's and at least level with the U.K.'s, which leaves the carry advantage with the dollar through the week.

The Bank of Japan decision holds a hidden upside for gold. A more aggressive normalization path in Tokyo could strengthen the yen sharply, and yen strength tends to weigh on the dollar index. A yen-driven dollar pullback on Friday would give gold its first relief from currency pressure in three weeks.

The correlation cuts both ways over time. Gold's 2026 surge above $5,500 came during a period of dollar weakness and aggressive reserve diversification away from dollar assets. That diversification has not stopped: official-sector buying hit a record in the second quarter. What has changed is the short-term flow picture. As long as the dollar index holds above 99.50 and U.S. yields sit above 5%, gold's upside stays capped at the $4,323 to $4,412 resistance band. A dollar retreat below 99.00 after the Fed would be the clearest macro signal that gold's correction has run its course.

$104 Oil and the Middle East: Why the War Is Lifting the Dollar Instead of Gold

Crude oil is the root cause of this week's rates pressure, and its relationship with gold has flipped. WTI traded at $104.43 at 11:50 a.m. ET, up 3.00%, and Brent reached $107.90 earlier in the day. The rally follows an attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and which Saudi officials said could disrupt up to 4% of global oil supply.

The pace is what worries the Fed. Brent traded at $94.39 in late August. It crossed $101 on September 9, hit $105 on September 10 and reached $107.90 today, a $13.51 climb in under four weeks. That move feeds headline CPI directly within one or two monthly prints.

In theory, an oil shock driven by war should be a double tailwind for gold: an inflation hedge and a geopolitical haven at the same time. In practice, this week it has been a headwind. Higher oil raises inflation expectations, which pushes the Fed toward more hikes, which lifts real yields and the dollar. Those forces overpower gold's inflation-hedge appeal in the short run because the Fed's response to inflation matters more for a non-yielding asset than inflation itself.

The escalation is broadening. Houthi forces struck a Saudi air base at Khamis Mushait on Monday, and a senior Iranian security official said Tehran will not return to negotiations with Washington until its conditions are met. A Defense Department inspector general report put the cost of the Iran war at $33.4 billion. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi travels to China on Wednesday, the same day as the Fed decision.

The regime change in gold's behavior has a precedent in this conflict. Earlier in 2026, as the war escalated, gold collapsed from above $5,500 to below $4,000 by late June, a 27% drawdown, even as geopolitical risk stayed elevated. The driver then, as now, was the rates response to energy inflation, not the war itself.

The pivot point for gold is not a ceasefire. It is the moment oil stops feeding the Fed's hawkish path. A de-escalation that sends WTI back below $100 would ease hike expectations, pull the 10-year back under 5% and remove the dollar's haven bid. That combination would likely deliver the kind of move gold posted on August 19. An escalation that pushes Brent toward $115 would do the opposite in the near term, keeping gold pinned near the $4,234 to $4,275 floor until the rate path peaks.

The Demand Floor: $18 Billion ETF Month and a Record 288.9 Tonnes of Central Bank Buying

The strongest argument for gold's floor is who is buying. Global gold-backed ETFs pulled in $18 billion in August, the second-largest monthly inflow on record. Holdings rose 121 tonnes to an all-time high of 4,189 tonnes, and total ETF assets climbed 16% to $615 billion. North American and European funds drove the surge.

That reverses the pattern from earlier in the year, when ETF investors were net sellers during the collapse from $5,500 toward $4,000 even as central banks kept buying. For the first time in months, official buyers and private buyers are leaning in the same direction at the same time. That alignment helps explain the 15% rally from the mid-July low to the $4,600 area in late August.

The official sector is doing the heavy lifting. Central banks bought a record 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026. Third-quarter data is not due until after the quarter ends on September 30. At the second-quarter pace, central banks are absorbing more than 22 tonnes a week, a steady price-insensitive bid that does not care whether the Fed hikes by 25 basis points on Wednesday.

The motive behind that buying is structural, not tactical. Reserve managers have spent several years diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets and foreign currencies. The war, sanctions risk and rising U.S. debt levels have all reinforced that shift. A 5% Treasury yield does not change the calculus for a central bank trying to reduce exposure to a single currency.

The ETF picture is more rate-sensitive, and that is where this week's risk sits. August's inflows arrived when futures priced as little as a 35% chance of a September hike and yields were retreating. With hike odds at 86.3% and the 10-year above 5%, some of that August money could reverse. A return to ETF outflows in September would remove the private leg of the demand floor and leave central banks as the only structural buyer.

Record holdings also create a vulnerability. With 4,189 tonnes in ETFs, a 2% reduction would release 84 tonnes into the market, close to four weeks of central bank buying at the second-quarter pace. That math is why the $4,234 level matters so much: if price breaks, ETF holders who bought in August at $4,350 to $4,600 are underwater and more likely to sell. If price holds, their cost basis becomes support.

Technical Structure: $4,275 50-Day SMA, $4,234 Fibonacci and the $4,412 Ceiling

The chart is clean, and gold sits in the middle of its decision zone. The key reference is the June-to-August upswing, the rally from the late-June low below $4,000 to the late-August peak. Its Fibonacci retracements define both the support and the resistance that matter for the next 30 days.

The 50% retracement sits at $4,323, and gold futures at $4,329.80 are trading $6.80 above it. Spot XAU/USD has been trading just beneath that level, which gives the market a neutral-to-capped tone. Above it, the 38.2% retracement at $4,412 is the first strong barrier, followed by the 23.6% level at $4,522. The August 19 spot high of $4,491.16 sits between those two levels.

On the downside, the 50-day simple moving average at $4,275 is the first line of defense. The 61.8% retracement at $4,234 sits $41 below it. Monday's low of $4,253 landed squarely inside that band, and Tuesday's Asian dip-buying at $4,283 held above it. A daily close below $4,234 would break the entire recovery structure since June and expose the 78.6% retracement at $4,108. Below that, the prior anchor area at $3,947 is the last major support before the late-June low.

Momentum confirms the consolidation. The daily relative strength index hovers around 45, below neutral but far from oversold. The MACD remains in negative territory with a depressed histogram, a sign that rallies will struggle unless buyers reclaim the $4,323 to $4,412 band. The 100-day moving average, which gold broke above near $4,381 on August 19, now acts as overhead resistance inside that same band.

The pattern since late August is a series of lower highs: the $4,600 area on August 25, then sub-$4,400 rallies in September, then Tuesday's $4,336.70 U.S. session high. The lows have been holding firmer, from $4,253 on Monday to $4,283 on Tuesday. That combination creates a narrowing wedge between $4,234 and $4,412, and wedges resolve with a directional break.

The trigger levels are precise. A daily close above $4,412 opens $4,491 and then $4,522, a 4.4% gain from $4,329.80. A daily close below $4,234 opens $4,108, a 5.1% decline. Wednesday's Fed decision is the event most likely to force that break.

Silver at $63.65 and the Gold-Silver Ratio at 68: Industrial Metal Pressure

Silver is taking the same macro hit with extra industrial exposure. Silver futures fell 0.76% to $63.65 an ounce in early Tuesday trading. The metal has traded between $64 and $67 in recent weeks, so today's print sits at the bottom of that range.

The gold-silver ratio tells the story. With gold futures at $4,329.80 and silver at $63.65, the ratio stands at 68. It had been sitting in the mid-60s in early September. A rising ratio means silver is underperforming gold, which is typical when growth fears build alongside rate hikes. Silver carries heavy industrial demand from solar panels, electronics and electric vehicles, so it takes a double hit when higher energy costs and tighter policy threaten manufacturing activity.

The broader metals complex has been under pressure. Base metals and silver both slid sharply in the September 11 session, cutting short a rally in mining stocks. Silver has also faced a demand shock from India, where surprise restrictions on silver imports hit prices earlier in the year.

For gold forecasting, silver serves as a sentiment gauge. When precious metals rally on genuine monetary demand, silver typically outperforms gold because of its smaller market and higher beta. When the ratio climbs, it signals that buyers are favoring gold's reserve-asset role over silver's cyclical exposure. A ratio at 68 and rising is consistent with defensive, central-bank-led gold demand rather than a speculative precious metals rush.

The ratio also offers a clean confirmation signal for gold's next move. If gold breaks above $4,412 after the Fed and silver reclaims $67, the ratio would compress back toward 66, confirming broad-based buying. If gold holds its floor while silver breaks below $62, the ratio would push above 70, a sign that the macro squeeze is intensifying and gold's floor is being held only by official buyers.

The oil connection runs through silver more directly than gold. Silver miners and refiners are heavy energy consumers, and a $104 WTI price inflates their operating costs just as prices soften. Mining margins are thinning at both ends.

Silver's positioning ahead of the Fed mirrors gold's: a priced hike, a data-dependent dot plot and a dollar at a two-week high. A dovish surprise would lift silver faster than gold in percentage terms. A hawkish surprise would hit silver harder. Traders using silver as a leveraged gold proxy this week face asymmetric risk skewed to the downside until the ratio stops rising.

Gold Miners: GDX Slides to $93.46 as Operating Leverage Works in Reverse

Gold mining stocks are magnifying bullion's decline. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF traded at $93.46 on Tuesday, within a session range of $92.85 to $94.80, after opening at $94.59. The fund had been quoted at $97.10 in the prior session, so the morning move represents a 3.7% decline against a 0.51% drop in gold futures. The ETF sits 20% below its 52-week high of $117.18 and 39% above its 52-week low of $67.26, with $29.13 billion in assets.

The concentration in the fund makes the top holdings critical. Newmont accounts for 10.98% of assets, Agnico Eagle Mines 10.71%, Barrick Mining 7.34%, Wheaton Precious Metals 5.98%, AngloGold Ashanti 5.05% and Franco-Nevada 4.85%. Those six companies make up 45% of the fund.

Operating leverage is the reason miners move more than metal. A miner's revenue rises and falls directly with the gold price, while most costs move slowly. When gold rallies, the extra revenue flows almost entirely to profit. When gold falls, profit shrinks faster than revenue. In early August, that leverage worked upward: the gold miners ETF rose 21.09% in five days to $89.73 as gold jumped to $4,353, and Newmont advanced 20.55% to $112.97 in the same week.

The fundamentals behind the sector are still strong. Newmont posted a record $2.2 billion of second-quarter free cash flow on a realized gold price of $4,414 an ounce, against byproduct all-in sustaining costs of $1,621, comfortably below full-year guidance of $1,680. Agnico Eagle generated $1.3 billion of free cash flow at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,459. At $4,329.80 gold, Newmont's margin per ounce stands above $2,700, and industry-wide margins sit near $3,000 an ounce.

The risk to miners is the oil price, not gold. Fuel, power and reagents make up a large share of mining costs, and $104 WTI inflates those costs in real time. The combination of gold at $4,000 and WTI above $95 would erase much of the margin expansion that drove the sector higher this year. That scenario is not the base case, but today's action shows how quickly investors are pricing the squeeze.

For gold forecasting, miners act as an early warning system. The fund's 3.7% slide against gold's 0.51% decline signals that equity investors expect more downside in bullion into the Fed. A miners rebound above $97.10 that runs ahead of gold would be the first sign that the correction is ending.

Scenario Map: What Wednesday's Fed Decision Means for XAU/USD

The Fed decision on Wednesday produces three realistic outcomes, and each maps to a specific gold price path from $4,329.80.

The first scenario is the base case: a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75% to 4.00% with a median dot plot showing two hikes in 2026, matching futures pricing. The 10-year would hold near 5%, the dollar index would stay near 99.50 and gold would remain inside its wedge. The trading range for this scenario is $4,234 to $4,412, with the 50-day moving average at $4,275 acting as a pivot. Gold would likely drift toward the lower half of that range into the Bank of Japan decision on Friday, then take direction from the yen.

The second scenario is the dovish surprise: a hike paired with a dot plot showing only one increase this year and Warsh framing the move as a single recalibration. Long yields would pull back below 5%, the dollar would slip toward 99.00 and gold would reclaim the $4,412 38.2% retracement within days. The upside targets are the August 19 spot high at $4,491.16 and then the 23.6% retracement at $4,522. A sustained move above $4,522 would reopen the $4,600 area from August 25, a 6.2% gain from current levels.

The third scenario is the hawkish surprise: a median dot showing three hikes or a press conference emphasizing that energy-driven inflation requires sustained tightening. The 10-year would push toward 5.10% or higher, the dollar would clear 100, and gold would break $4,234. The downside targets are the 78.6% retracement at $4,108 and then the $3,947 anchor. A test of $3,947 would represent an 8.8% decline from $4,329.80 and would challenge the late-June lows below $4,000.

The probabilities favor range trading. The two-hike base case is already priced, and a hike with a 3.8% year-end projection intact would read as dovish relative to current futures. The asymmetry sits in the tails: the hawkish scenario has a larger downside move, $222 to the first target, while the dovish scenario has a $192 move to $4,522.

Three variables outside the Fed can override all three scenarios. A Treasury announcement on buybacks or issuance, as on August 19, can reverse long yields in a single session. A Bank of Japan hike that strengthens the yen can knock the dollar lower on Friday. And an oil move below $100 on Middle East de-escalation would undercut the entire hawkish case.

Gold Price Forecast Verdict: $4,234 Floor, $4,522 Target, $4,108 Risk

Gold futures at $4,329.80 are sitting inside a squeeze between the heaviest rates pressure in 19 years and the deepest structural demand on record. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.041%, the dollar index cleared 99.50, WTI traded at $104.43 and fed funds futures price an 86.3% chance of a hike to 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday. Against that, global gold ETF holdings sit at a record 4,189 tonnes after an $18 billion August, and central banks bought a record 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter.

The price action shows which side is winning in the short run and which side is winning structurally. Gold has fallen for three consecutive weeks and touched a one-month low of $4,253. But it has held above the 61.8% retracement at $4,234 and bounced off the 50-day moving average at $4,275 twice in 48 hours, with each low firmer than the last. The gold miners ETF's 3.7% slide to $93.46 shows equity investors expect more pain, while the physical market keeps absorbing supply.

The short-term bias is neutral-to-bearish into Wednesday's 2:00 p.m. ET statement and 2:30 p.m. ET press conference. The base case is a range between $4,234 and $4,412 through the Fed and the Bank of Japan decision on Friday. A daily close below $4,234 on a hawkish dot plot would target $4,108 first, 5.1% lower, with $3,947 as the extended downside. That break would likely trigger ETF selling from August buyers now underwater.

The 30-day forecast leans constructive once the Fed is out of the way. With 86.3% of the hike priced and a first hike historically marking the peak of pre-hike selling pressure, the path of least resistance after Wednesday points higher if $4,234 holds. A daily close above $4,412 confirms that path and targets $4,491.16 and then $4,522, with $4,600 as the extended objective if the dollar retreats below 99.00 and the 10-year slips back under 5%.

The 30-day forecast range is $4,108 to $4,600, with $4,275 as the pivot. Below $4,234, the rates trade wins and gold tests $4,108. Above $4,412, official and ETF demand reasserts control and gold targets $4,522. Until Warsh's dot plot is public, the floor at $4,234 to $4,275 defines the trade, and the $4,522 target stays conditional on that floor holding through Wednesday's close.

That's TradingNEWS