SOFI ($16.71) Posts Its Best Day of the Quarter as Profit Guidance Finally Rises — Holding $15.70 Unlocks $20

SoFi Technologies traded at $16.71 on Tuesday afternoon, up $2.25 or 15.6% from Monday’s close at $14.46, on track for its best session of the quarter. The stock gapped higher before the bell, trading at $15.96 to $16.08 in premarket activity, jumped 8.5% to $15.70 in the first minutes after the release, extended to $16.16 in early regular trading and kept climbing through the New York lunch hour. Every attempt to fade the gap failed. At $16.71, SoFi carries a market value of $19.9 billion.

The catalyst was a clean sweep. Third-quarter adjusted net revenue rose 44% to a record $1.371 billion, beating the $1.26 billion consensus by $111 million, or 8.8%. Adjusted earnings of $0.18 per share topped the $0.17 estimate and rose from $0.11 a year earlier. Net income reached $241 million, up 73% from $139.4 million. Members climbed 35% to 17.1 million, with a record 1.2 million added in the quarter. And management raised 2026 guidance and introduced a 2027 outlook that sits well above Street expectations.

The context makes the rally matter. SoFi entered Tuesday down 45% for 2026, having fallen from a start-of-year level near $26.30 to $14.46. The stock slid for three straight sessions before the report, from $14.90 on October 21 to Monday’s close. Even after Tuesday’s surge, shares remain down 36% year to date, more than a third of their value gone in a year when the company has posted record quarter after record quarter.

The disconnect between business performance and share price is the core of this story. Revenue grew 44%, adjusted EBITDA grew 70%, net income grew 73%, and the stock still trades well below where it began the year. That gap was built by rate-hike fears, a slowdown in the technology platform business and, most directly, a July earnings reaction in which the stock fell 8.6% to $15.29 because management raised revenue guidance without raising profit guidance.

Tuesday’s report fixed that specific problem. Management raised both lines, moved 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $0.61 from $0.60, and put a hard number on 2027 at $0.90 per share, 48% above the 2026 target and above a consensus of $0.81 to $0.82.

The thesis for this forecast is direct. At $16.71, SoFi trades at 18.6 times its own 2027 earnings guidance for a company growing revenue 27% next year, a valuation that looks undemanding for the growth on offer. But the stock has been in a downtrend all year, and a single earnings gap does not reverse a 45% decline. The $20 level, 19.7% above spot, is the line that would confirm the year’s selling is over.

Q3 by the Numbers: $1.37 Billion Revenue and a 34.3% EBITDA Margin

The third-quarter release delivered records across every major line. Adjusted net revenue reached $1.371 billion, up 44% from a year earlier, while GAAP total net revenue reached $1.39 billion, up from $961.6 million. Revenue beat consensus by a wider margin than EPS, and the top-line surprise drove most of the stock’s reaction.

Profitability expanded faster than revenue. Adjusted EBITDA rose 70% to a record $469.8 million, a 34.3% margin, up from 29.7% in the second quarter. That 4.6-point sequential margin expansion is the most important number in the report, because profitability was the weak spot investors punished in July. Adjusted net income reached $243 million, and GAAP net income reached $241 million, SoFi’s twelfth consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. Pre-tax profit stood at $317.8 million, a 22.9% margin.

Member and product growth continued at a record pace. Members rose 35% to 17.1 million, with 1.2 million added in the quarter, the fastest pace of member growth in the company’s history. Products rose 44% to 26.7 million, extending the trend of members using more than one SoFi product. Product growth running nine points ahead of member growth is the cross-selling engine that management calls its Financial Services Productivity Loop.

Lending set records. Total loan originations reached $16.9 billion, up 71% year over year and 17.4% above consensus. Personal loan originations rose 69% to $12.6 billion, including $3.6 billion originated on behalf of third parties through the Loan Platform Business. Student loan originations surged 96% to $2.9 billion, and home loan originations rose 44% to $1.4 billion, with home equity loans making up 40% of home volume.

The balance sheet grew. Total deposits rose $5.8 billion in the quarter to $51.3 billion, and total assets increased $6.8 billion. Consolidated net interest margin rose 16 basis points sequentially to 6.14%.

Credit improved. The personal loan annualized charge-off rate fell to 2.26% from 2.60% a year earlier. Excluding delinquent loan sales, the all-in personal loan net charge-off rate stood at 3.4%, down 80 basis points year over year and 30 basis points sequentially. Student loan charge-offs held at 63 basis points.

Management also noted that eight of SoFi’s businesses now generate more than $100 million each in annualized revenue, a measure of how far the company has diversified beyond its origins in student loan refinancing.

Lending: $807 Million in Revenue and Record Originations

Lending remains SoFi’s largest segment and its main profit engine. The segment generated $807 million of adjusted net revenue in the third quarter, with lending net interest income rising 57% year over year to $670 million. The jump in net interest income reflects both a larger loan book and a wider spread between what SoFi earns on loans and what it pays on deposits.

Personal loans drove the volume. Originations of $12.6 billion rose 69% year over year, the largest quarter in SoFi’s history. Of that total, $3.6 billion was originated on behalf of third parties through the Loan Platform Business, where SoFi underwrites and originates loans that other institutions fund and hold. Total Loan Platform originations reached $3.8 billion including other categories, and the business added $153.4 million to adjusted net revenue, up from $143.3 million in the second quarter and $140.8 million in the first.

The Loan Platform Business matters for the investment case because it earns fees without consuming SoFi’s own balance sheet. When SoFi originates a loan for a partner, it collects a fee and often a servicing stream, but the credit risk and funding sit with the partner. That model lets SoFi scale origination volume faster than its deposit base would otherwise allow. Management said partner demand remains strong and that originations in the current quarter are already pacing ahead of the third quarter.

Student loans delivered the fastest growth. Originations nearly doubled, up 96% to $2.9 billion, as SoFi gained share in student loan refinancing and in-school lending. The student loan charge-off rate of 63 basis points, up just 2 basis points sequentially, shows the book remains among the highest quality in consumer lending.

Home loans continued to build. Originations rose 44% to $1.4 billion, with home equity products accounting for 40% of volume. Home equity lending grows when homeowners hold low-rate first mortgages and prefer to borrow against equity rather than refinance, a pattern that has persisted with mortgage rates elevated.

The fourth-quarter guide calls for $785 million of lending revenue, down from $807 million in the third quarter. That conservative number reflects management’s habit of guiding below run rate. For 2027, management guided lending revenue growth of 25%.

For the forecast, lending gives SoFi its earnings base. As long as originations stay above $15 billion per quarter and charge-offs keep improving, the segment can carry the company’s profit growth while the higher-growth businesses scale.

Financial Services: $525 Million Revenue and $51.3 Billion in Deposits

The Financial Services segment is where SoFi’s long-term thesis lives, and it is growing into a business of real scale. Segment net revenue rose 25% year over year to $525.1 million, driven by net interest income that rose 38% to $281.3 million and noninterest income that rose 13% to $243.8 million.

Deposits are the engine. Total deposits grew $5.8 billion in the quarter to $51.3 billion, up from $45.5 billion at the end of June, $40.2 billion at the end of March and $37.5 billion at the end of 2025. That is $13.8 billion of deposit growth in nine months, a 37% increase. Deposits matter because they fund SoFi’s loans at a lower cost than wholesale funding, widening net interest margin. Consumer deposits drove the net interest income growth in the segment.

Spending is accelerating. Interchange fee revenue, earned when members use SoFi debit and credit cards, reached a record $52 million, up 77% year over year, on $31 billion of total annualized spend across SoFi Money and Credit Card. Interchange is high-margin revenue that grows with member engagement rather than with credit risk.

Monetization per product is improving. Financial services revenue per product rose to $90 from $88 in the second quarter. Management cautioned that blended revenue per product may decline over time as lower-revenue businesses grow faster, but the third-quarter gain shows existing products are earning more.

Profitability in the segment slipped as SoFi invested. Contribution profit rose 16% to $261.0 million, but the contribution margin fell to 50% from 54% a year earlier, as marketing and growth spending outpaced revenue. Through nine months, contribution profit rose 19% to $669.3 million at a 47% margin.

The fourth-quarter guide calls for $550 million of financial services revenue, up from $525 million. For 2027, management guided this segment to grow 35%, the fastest of the three. That growth rate, on a base approaching $2.2 billion in annualized revenue, would make Financial Services SoFi’s largest growth contributor next year.

The credit card book is the soft spot. Credit card charge-offs rose to 7.77% from 6.55% a year earlier, a 122-basis-point increase that runs against the improving trend in personal loans. The card book is small relative to personal loans, but rising losses there bear watching as SoFi pushes card adoption.

For the forecast, Financial Services is the business that justifies a growth multiple. Deposits growing $5 billion to $6 billion a quarter and interchange revenue up 77% describe a digital bank taking share.

Technology Platform: The Drag That Is Ending

The Technology Platform segment has been the weakest part of SoFi’s story in 2026, and the third quarter showed signs that the drag is fading. Segment net revenue fell 24% year over year to $87.4 million, but rose 3% from the second quarter’s $84.5 million. Excluding a large client that completed its transition off the platform before the end of 2025, segment revenue grew 18% year over year.

The client loss explains the year’s weakness. Technology Platform total enabled accounts fell 11% year over year to 140.4 million, down from 160 million a year earlier, after the large client departed. In the second quarter, segment revenue fell 23% and contribution profit dropped 65% to $11.8 million as the business absorbed the loss without a replacement.

The recovery has begun. Enabled accounts rose by 6 million in the third quarter, from 134.8 million in June to 140.4 million in September, the first meaningful sequential gain since the client exit. The account count has recovered from a low of 128.5 million, signaling that new client signings are filling the gap.

The business runs through Galileo, SoFi’s payments processing and card-issuing platform, and Technisys, its core banking software. Fintechs and banks use the platform to power their own accounts and cards, which gives SoFi revenue from companies that compete with its consumer business. The model diversifies SoFi’s revenue away from consumer credit and offers recurring, fee-based income.

Management remains confident in the segment’s trajectory. It expects the Technology Platform to return to 25% revenue growth in a steady state, and guided 2027 segment growth of 25%. The fourth-quarter guide calls for $90 million of segment revenue, another sequential gain.

The year-over-year comparison will flip in the fourth quarter. With the large client gone before December 31, 2025, the fourth-quarter 2026 comparison will run against a base that no longer includes that revenue. Reported growth should turn sharply positive, removing a headline drag that has weighed on the stock all year.

For the forecast, the Technology Platform’s turn matters more for sentiment than for earnings. At $87 million per quarter, it represents 6% of adjusted net revenue. But a segment shrinking 24% gave bears an easy argument that SoFi’s diversification story was failing. Reported growth turning positive in the fourth quarter removes that argument and lets investors focus on lending and Financial Services.

Guidance: 2026 Raised to $5.04 Billion, 2027 Set at $6.4 Billion and $0.90 EPS

The guidance is what drove Tuesday’s 15.6% rally, and it addresses directly the complaint that sank the stock in July.

For 2026, management raised adjusted net revenue guidance to $5.04 billion from a prior range of $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion, an increase of $240 million at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA guidance rose to $1.66 billion from $1.6 billion. Adjusted EPS guidance rose to $0.61 from $0.60, above the $0.59 consensus. In July, management raised revenue guidance but held EPS at $0.60, and the stock fell 8.6% the next day. This time, both lines moved.

The 2026 guide looks conservative. It implies fourth-quarter adjusted net revenue of $1.376 billion, just 0.4% above the third quarter’s $1.371 billion. SoFi has grown revenue 13% to 16% sequentially in recent quarters, and the segment guides for the fourth quarter add up to the same flat number. A company that just posted 44% growth guiding to flat sequential revenue is building room for another beat.

For 2027, SoFi introduced a preliminary outlook one quarter earlier than usual, which management attributed to stronger visibility. The company expects adjusted net revenue of $6.4 billion, up 27% from the revised 2026 figure, against consensus estimates of $5.99 billion to $6.14 billion. It expects adjusted EBITDA of $2.24 billion, net income of $1.28 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.90, against a consensus of $0.81 to $0.82. Segment growth targets call for 25% in lending, 35% in Financial Services and 25% in the Technology Platform.

The assumptions are reasonable. The 2027 outlook assumes two rate hikes during the year and a 24% effective tax rate. Management said the outlook holds whether rates stay where they are, rise or fall, without quantifying the scenarios. SoFi’s 17% total capital ratio, well above the 10.5% regulatory minimum, and its expected cash generation are sufficient to fund the 2027 plan without raising additional capital.

The EPS math is striking. Moving from $0.61 in 2026 to $0.90 in 2027 represents 48% earnings growth on 27% revenue growth, a sign of operating leverage as fixed costs spread over a larger revenue base. The adjusted EBITDA margin implied for 2027 is 35%, up from 33% for 2026.

For the forecast, the guidance resets the valuation debate. At $16.71, SoFi trades at 27.4 times 2026 EPS guidance and 18.6 times 2027 EPS guidance. If management delivers $0.90 in 2027, the current price embeds a multiple well below the company’s growth rate.

Credit Quality: Charge-Offs Fall Across the Personal Loan Book

For a consumer lender trading at a discount, credit quality is the variable that determines whether the market trusts the earnings. SoFi’s third-quarter credit data gave investors reason to.

Personal loan charge-offs improved on every measure. The personal loan annualized charge-off rate fell to 2.26% from 2.60% a year earlier, a decline of 34 basis points. The all-in personal loan net charge-off rate, which adds back the effect of delinquent loan sales, stood at 3.4%, down 80 basis points year over year and 30 basis points from the second quarter. In the second quarter, the all-in rate was 3.7% and the reported personal loan charge-off rate was 2.62%. Credit is getting better, not worse, as originations surge.

The improvement matters because personal loans are SoFi’s largest product. Originations of $12.6 billion per quarter mean any deterioration in credit would hit earnings quickly through higher provisions. Falling charge-offs against record volume indicate SoFi is lending to stronger borrowers, not stretching credit standards to chase growth.

Student loans remain pristine. The student loan annualized charge-off rate stood at 63 basis points, down 6 basis points from a year earlier and up 2 basis points sequentially. Student loan refinancing borrowers tend to be high-income professionals, and the book’s loss rate reflects that.

Credit cards are the exception. Credit card charge-offs rose to 7.77% from 6.55% a year earlier. Card losses typically run higher than personal loan losses across the industry, and SoFi’s card book is younger and still seasoning. But a rising trend in a product SoFi is actively growing deserves attention, particularly with the consumer facing higher energy and food costs.

The macro backdrop is mixed for consumer credit. U.S. consumer confidence rebounded to 91.7 in October from 84.2, but write-in responses cited high costs for energy, goods and services. Gasoline averaged $4.27 a gallon against $3.05 a year ago. Initial jobless claims dropped to 194,000, the lowest since late July, and a strong labor market is the best support for consumer credit.

The capital buffer provides protection. SoFi’s 17% total capital ratio sits 6.5 points above the regulatory minimum, giving the company room to absorb higher losses without raising capital.

For the forecast, credit is a tailwind. Falling personal loan charge-offs support the 2027 earnings guide, and a strong labor market reduces the risk of a credit cycle turn.

Valuation: 18.6 Times 2027 Earnings for 27% Growth

SoFi’s valuation has compressed so sharply this year that it now looks inexpensive against its growth. At $16.71 and a market value of $19.9 billion, the stock trades at 27.4 times 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.61 and 18.6 times 2027 guidance of $0.90. On revenue, it trades at 3.9 times 2026 guidance of $5.04 billion and 3.1 times 2027 guidance of $6.4 billion.

Those multiples look modest for the growth on offer. A company growing revenue 44% this year and guiding to 27% next year, with EPS growth of 48% in 2027, would typically command a multiple well above 20 times forward earnings in the technology sector. Even against regional banks, which trade at 10 to 14 times earnings with low-single-digit growth, SoFi’s 18.6 times 2027 earnings represents a modest premium for a growth rate several times higher.

The PEG ratio frames the case. On 2027 numbers, SoFi trades at 18.6 times earnings for 48% EPS growth, a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.4. A PEG below 1.0 is traditionally considered inexpensive. On 2026 numbers, the stock trades at 27.4 times earnings for EPS that is rising sharply from 2025 levels.

The bear case on valuation focuses on what kind of company SoFi is. Critics argue it should be valued as a bank, not a technology company, because the majority of its revenue comes from lending and net interest income. Banks trade on price-to-tangible-book and return on equity, and lending businesses carry credit-cycle risk that justifies lower multiples. SoFi’s earnings also depend on its ability to keep growing deposits and originations at a pace that may slow as the company scales.

The 45% decline through Monday priced in much of that skepticism. At $14.46, SoFi traded near 16 times 2027 guidance. Tuesday’s rally moved the multiple up but left it well below where the stock traded at the start of 2026, when shares sat near $26.30.

The PayPal contrast is instructive. PayPal, reporting the same day, posted third-quarter revenue up 2% to $8.6 billion, missed revenue estimates and fell 1% premarket, despite non-GAAP EPS growth of 8% to $1.45 and raised full-year guidance. Investors are paying up for growth and punishing stagnation in fintech.

For the forecast, valuation supports further upside. If SoFi delivers its 2027 guidance and the market assigns even 22 times earnings, the stock would trade at $19.80, close to the $20 level that marks the technical turning point.

Why the Stock Fell 45% While the Business Grew 44%

The gap between SoFi’s operating performance and its share price this year has three explanations, and Tuesday’s report addressed two of them.

The first was profit guidance. In July, SoFi reported second-quarter revenue of $1.21 billion, beating consensus of $1.11 billion by 8.3%, and raised full-year revenue guidance to $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion. But it held adjusted EPS guidance at $0.60, and the stock fell 8.6% to $15.29. Investors read unchanged profit guidance on higher revenue as evidence that SoFi was buying growth with margin. The third-quarter report reversed that: adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 34.3% from 29.7%, EPS guidance rose to $0.61, and 2027 EPS of $0.90 implies further margin expansion.

The second was the Technology Platform. A segment shrinking 23% to 24% year over year gave the market a reason to doubt SoFi’s diversification. The third quarter showed sequential recovery, with revenue up 3% and enabled accounts up 6 million, and the fourth-quarter comparison will turn positive.

The third is rates and macro, which Tuesday’s report could not fix. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September to 3.75%-4.00% and is close to fully priced for another hike in December. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.00%. Higher rates raise SoFi’s funding costs, increase the risk of credit deterioration and compress valuation multiples across growth and financial stocks. Fintech stocks with consumer-credit exposure have been among the hardest hit as rate expectations shifted from cuts to hikes.

The broader fintech complex suffered alongside SoFi. Rate-sensitive financial stocks lagged through October, and the sector’s shift from a rate-cut thesis to a rate-hike reality hit companies whose valuations depended on easing.

Management addressed the rate question directly. The 2027 outlook assumes two rate hikes and holds in any rate scenario, according to management. SoFi’s deposit growth gives it a funding base that reprices more slowly than wholesale funding, and its net interest margin rose 16 basis points in the third quarter despite higher rates.

For the forecast, two of three headwinds are fading. The profit-guidance concern is resolved and the Technology Platform drag is ending. The rate environment remains the open question, and Wednesday’s Fed decision will shape how fast the market rewards SoFi’s improved fundamentals.

The Fed on Wednesday and What Rates Mean for SoFi

The Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET is the macro event that matters most for SoFi in the coming days. Fed funds futures price a hold at 3.75%-4.00% above 90% probability, with a December hike to 4.00%-4.25% close to fully priced. Markets see no rate cuts in 2026, and the first easing no earlier than spring 2027.

Rates cut both ways for SoFi. Higher rates raise the yield on SoFi’s loans, which supports net interest income: lending net interest income rose 57% year over year in the third quarter, and consolidated net interest margin reached 6.14%. But higher rates also raise funding costs on deposits, increase the burden on borrowers, reduce demand for refinancing products such as student loan refinancing, and compress valuation multiples.

The management outlook is rate-agnostic by design. The 2027 guidance assumes two rate hikes during the year, which positions the forecast for the environment markets currently price. If rates rise less than expected, SoFi would benefit from lower funding costs and a stronger refinancing market. If rates rise more, the higher yield on loans partly offsets higher deposit costs.

The U.S. economy supports SoFi’s customer base. Consumer confidence jumped to 91.7 in October, durable goods orders rose 1.8% in September, the U.S. flash composite PMI sits near a five-year high and jobless claims are near cycle lows. SoFi’s members, who skew toward high-earning professionals, benefit from a strong labor market.

Inflation is the risk. September CPI rose 3.7% and the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge rose 3.4% in August. Energy costs from the U.S.-Iran war have pushed gasoline to $4.27 a gallon. Higher living costs squeeze household budgets and raise the risk of rising delinquencies, the pattern already visible in SoFi’s credit card charge-offs at 7.77%.

For Wednesday, three outcomes matter. A hold with language that keeps December open but stresses data dependence would support rate-sensitive stocks including SoFi. A hold with explicit guidance toward December, the base case, would be neutral for SoFi because its guidance already assumes hikes. A surprise hike, priced below 10%, would hit financials and growth stocks broadly and could send SoFi back toward the $15.70 gap level.

For the forecast, the Fed is a short-term volatility risk, not a thesis-breaker. SoFi’s guidance is built for a hiking environment.

Technical Map: $15.70 Gap Floor, $18 Pivot, $20 Trend Line

The chart has drawn clear levels after Tuesday’s gap, and the stock sits well above its pre-earnings range.

Support begins at $16.16, the early regular-session level, followed by $15.96 to $16.08, the premarket trading zone. The critical floor is $15.70, the level where the stock first traded after the release. A close below $15.70 would signal that sellers are fading the gap, and it would put $15.29, the July post-earnings low, in play. Below that, $14.90, the October 21 close, and $14.46, Monday’s close, mark the full gap fill. A close below $14.46 would erase Tuesday’s rally entirely and return the stock to its year-to-date downtrend.

Resistance starts at $17, a round number just above spot. Above that, $18 is the first major pivot, a level that would mark a 24.5% gain from Monday’s close and a meaningful break from the October trading range. The $20 level is the line that matters most: a sustained move above $20 would mark a reversal of the downtrend that began in January and confirm the selling is over. Above $20, the next targets sit at $22 and the start-of-year level near $26.30.

The trend remains bearish on the larger timeframe. SoFi has fallen from near $26.30 to $14.46 in 2026, a 45% decline, with a series of lower highs throughout the year. The July earnings drop to $15.29 and the October slide to $14.46 formed a double-bottom area in the $14.46 to $15.29 zone, and Tuesday’s gap above both suggests that floor held.

Gap behavior after earnings is the near-term test. Stocks that gap up on strong earnings and close near their highs often extend the move over the following sessions as institutions build positions. Stocks that fade the gap tend to drift back toward the pre-earnings level. SoFi’s intraday strength, rising from $15.70 to $16.71 rather than fading, is the more bullish pattern.

The trading range for the coming week is $15.70 to $18.00, with a bullish bias as long as the stock holds above $15.70.

SoFi Stock Price Forecast: Three Scenarios Into November

The forecast splits into three paths, with gap behavior over the next sessions, Wednesday’s Fed decision and broader fintech sentiment deciding which plays out.

The bull case requires a daily close above $18. The triggers would be continued buying that holds Tuesday’s gap, a Fed decision that does not surprise hawkishly, and positive estimate revisions as analysts lift 2027 forecasts toward management’s $0.90 guide. In that scenario, SoFi would clear $18 and target $20 within 30 days, a gain of 19.7% from $16.71. At $20, the stock would trade at 22.2 times 2027 EPS guidance, still below its growth rate. A close above $20 would reverse the year-long downtrend and open $22.

The base case is a consolidation between $15.70 and $18 into mid-November. The gap holds, with buyers defending $15.70, but the stock needs time to absorb the 15.6% move. The Fed holds with hawkish language, rate-sensitive stocks trade sideways, and SoFi digests the earnings jump as analysts revise estimates. In this scenario, the stock trades near $16.50 to $17.50 by mid-November.

The bear case is a daily close below $15.70. The triggers would be a hawkish Fed surprise, a broader selloff in financial or growth stocks, or a fade of the earnings gap as short-term traders take profits. In that scenario, SoFi would retest $15.29 and potentially fill the gap to $14.46, a decline of 13.5% from spot. A close below $14.46 would return the stock to its downtrend and target the $13 zone.

Weighing the scenarios, the balance tilts bullish. The third quarter beat on every major metric, raised 2026 guidance on both revenue and EPS, and set 2027 EPS at $0.90 against a consensus of $0.81 to $0.82. Credit is improving, deposits are growing at $5 billion to $6 billion a quarter, and the Technology Platform drag is ending. At 18.6 times 2027 guidance, the valuation leaves room for upside. The risk is macro: higher rates and a stretched consumer.

The 30-day price target is $20, conditional on a daily close above $18 and the gap holding above $15.70. A daily close below $15.70 would shift the target to $14.46.

Verdict: Bullish Above $15.70, $20 Target Needs the Gap to Hold

SoFi at $16.71 is a growth company that has been priced like a broken one, and Tuesday’s report made the case for repricing. Third-quarter adjusted net revenue rose 44% to a record $1.371 billion, beating consensus by 8.8%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 70% to $469.8 million with margin expanding to 34.3% from 29.7%. Net income reached $241 million, up 73%. Members grew 35% to 17.1 million with a record 1.2 million added, products grew 44% to 26.7 million, deposits rose $5.8 billion to $51.3 billion, and loan originations hit a record $16.9 billion.

The guidance answered the market’s main objection. After July’s selloff on unchanged profit guidance, SoFi raised 2026 adjusted EPS to $0.61, raised revenue guidance to $5.04 billion from a $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion range, and set 2027 at $6.4 billion in revenue, $2.24 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $0.90 in EPS, all above consensus. Personal loan charge-offs fell to 2.26%, the all-in rate dropped 80 basis points to 3.4%, and a 17% capital ratio funds the 2027 plan without new equity.

The risks are real but manageable. Credit card charge-offs rose to 7.77%, the Technology Platform still shrank 24% year over year before the comparison turns, and a Fed holding at 3.75%-4.00% with a December hike in view keeps pressure on rate-sensitive stocks. The stock remains down 36% for 2026 even after Tuesday’s rally.

The verdict is bullish. At 18.6 times 2027 EPS guidance for a company growing earnings 48% next year, SoFi trades at a PEG ratio of 0.4, inexpensive for its growth. A daily close above $18, with the gap holding above $15.70, would put $20 in reach within 30 days and challenge the downtrend that has defined 2026. A daily close below $15.70 would signal the gap is fading and shift the target to the $14.46 pre-earnings close. SoFi has delivered the numbers; the stock now needs to prove the market believes them by holding Tuesday’s gains through the Fed and building toward $20.

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