XRP-USD ($1.30) Defends a $1.27 Double Bottom as Whales Hold 68.5% of Supply — Break of $1.31 Opens $1.35 and $1.40

XRP traded at $1.30 on Tuesday, up 2.00% over 24 hours, after defending a session low of $1.2734 and pushing back to $1.3032 by the European afternoon. Spot volume reached $1.57 billion, with some venues reporting a 40% jump in activity to $1.68 billion. Market capitalization stood at $81.85 billion, fifth among digital assets, on a circulating supply of 63.35 billion tokens. The bounce kept XRP inside a band it has occupied for a week, and it leaves the token sitting directly beneath the $1.31 line that has capped every recovery since October 21.

The day’s headline belonged to Ripple, not to XRP. On Monday, October 26, Ripple announced that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency granted final approval for Ripple National Trust Bank, completing a chartering process that began with a conditional approval on December 12, 2025. The federally supervised trust bank will hold reserves for Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, act as collateral trustee for RLUSD holders and provide digital asset custody to institutions. It is the most significant regulatory milestone in Ripple’s history.

XRP barely moved. The token traded near $1.29 when the news broke and $1.30 a day later, a reaction that tells you how the market reads the charter: as a win for Ripple the company, not for XRP the asset. The charter gives XRP no designated role. RLUSD reserves are dollars and Treasury instruments, not XRP tokens, and RLUSD transactions on Ethereum do not touch the XRP Ledger at all.

The broader picture is weak. XRP sits 64.5% below its all-time high of $3.66 set on July 18, 2025, 51.4% below the $2.66 it held one year ago and 14.6% below the $1.52 it traded at one month ago. It closed 2025 at $1.82, according to the Bitwise XRP ETF’s own filings, which leaves the token down 28.6% for 2026. The only bright spot on the longer chart is the three-month view: XRP traded at $1.07 in late July and is up 21% since.

Tuesday’s backdrop was mixed. Bitcoin held $80,427 and ether slipped to $2,312, while the Nasdaq rallied 1.33% on AI optimism. XRP’s 2% gain outperformed both bitcoin and ether, a rare relative-strength day for the token.

The thesis for this forecast is direct. XRP is caught between corporate progress that does not flow to the token and holder behavior that is quietly constructive. Ripple’s bank charter, RLUSD growth and tokenization deals build the ecosystem, while spot ETF demand has stalled and a death cross hangs over the chart. Against that, wallets holding at least 10 million XRP control 68.5% of supply, the most since November 2022. The $1.25 to $1.35 range decides the next leg.

Ripple National Trust Bank: What the Charter Does and Does Not Do

The OCC’s final approval matters for Ripple’s business, and understanding why it does not move XRP is the key to this week’s price action. Ripple applied for a national trust bank charter and a Federal Reserve master account in July 2025, received conditional approval in December 2025 and announced final approval on October 26, 2026. Public OCC records still list only the conditional approval dated December 12, 2025, which leaves Ripple’s announcement ahead of the regulator’s published status.

The charter covers three functions. Ripple National Trust Bank will manage reserves backing RLUSD, Ripple’s dollar stablecoin with a market capitalization near $2.5 billion. It will act as collateral trustee for RLUSD holders, adding federal oversight to a stablecoin currently issued through Ripple’s Standard Custody & Trust Company. And it will offer digital asset custody to institutional clients, holding assets on their behalf.

The charter is narrow by design. Ripple National Trust Bank is not a commercial bank: it will not take retail deposits or make loans. The OCC’s earlier approval limited the entity to trust company activities, and the final approval keeps that scope. For Ripple, the charter is a regulatory foundation for its institutional payments, custody and capital markets businesses.

For XRP, the immediate benefit is limited. The charter assigns XRP no function. RLUSD reserves sit in cash and short-term government securities, so stablecoin growth does not create direct demand for XRP. RLUSD issued on Ethereum generates no XRP Ledger activity and burns no XRP. Even on the XRP Ledger, transaction fees are too small to reduce the token supply in any meaningful way.

That could change. If the trust bank begins holding XRP for institutional clients through its custody business, it would create a regulated channel for institutional XRP ownership. And if a larger share of RLUSD is issued on the XRP Ledger rather than on Ethereum, stablecoin growth would drive more ledger activity. Neither has happened at scale yet.

The charter arrives as Ripple’s broader institutional push gathers pace. Ripple’s president described the company as moving past simply issuing assets on-chain toward connecting institutional infrastructure on the XRP Ledger, including through a collaboration with BNY. Ripple’s Swell conference opens in New York this week, giving the company a stage for further announcements.

For the forecast, the charter strengthens the long-term case for the Ripple ecosystem and adds legitimacy to the XRP Ledger as institutional infrastructure. It does not create near-term buying pressure for the token. Traders who bought XRP expecting a charter rally learned that lesson on Monday.

Spot XRP ETFs: $1.8 Billion In, $1.47 Billion Held, Demand Stalled

The spot XRP ETF complex, which launched in late 2025, has become the clearest gauge of institutional XRP demand, and that demand has gone quiet. U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $3.61 million of net outflows on Monday, October 26, with the Bitwise XRP ETF accounting for the entire amount. The same day, spot bitcoin ETFs took in $110.3 million.

The October pattern shows fading momentum. The funds took in $11.31 million in the week ended October 9, extending an inflow streak to 13 consecutive weeks. That streak ended in the week of October 12 to 16, when the funds recorded $1.84 million of net withdrawals, with only one positive day: a $740,000 inflow into the Bitwise fund on October 14. The week of October 19 to 23 brought $4.25 million to $4.3 million of inflows, driven by $708,520 on October 21 and $3.55 million on October 22, all of it into Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ. The funds then posted zero net flows on October 23 and outflows on October 26.

The scale is modest against the asset base. Cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $1.801 billion, but total net assets sit at $1.469 billion. That $332 million gap reflects XRP’s price decline since the funds launched: investors put in $1.8 billion and now hold $1.47 billion. The Bitwise fund has taken in $680 million of the total. Weekly flows of $4 million represent 0.3% of assets, a rounding error for a complex of this size.

The asset decline has been steady. Net assets fell from $1.77 billion on September 25 and $1.66 billion in early October to $1.57 billion by October 9 and $1.47 billion by October 16. The funds’ own filings show the price path: the Bitwise trust valued XRP at $1.82 on December 31, 2025, $1.34 on March 31, 2026 and $1.04 on June 30, 2026.

Five spot XRP ETFs trade in the U.S., with a WisdomTree fund pending. More products have not translated into more demand. Several proposed XRP investment products continue to face delays and amendments.

The contrast with bitcoin is the signal. Bitcoin ETFs hold $102.84 billion, 6.41% of bitcoin’s market value. XRP ETFs hold $1.47 billion, a small fraction of XRP’s $81.85 billion market cap. Institutional allocators who want crypto exposure are concentrating it in bitcoin.

For the forecast, ETF flows are a ceiling, not a floor. A return to weekly inflows above $10 million would signal renewed institutional interest and support a move toward $1.40. Continued flat-to-negative flows would leave XRP dependent on retail and whale demand.

Whales Control 68.5% of Supply, the Most Since November 2022

The on-chain picture is the strongest argument for XRP bulls, and it runs against the weak ETF data. Wallets holding at least 10 million XRP control 68.5% of the supply, the highest concentration since November 2022. Large holders have been absorbing tokens while the price fell, a pattern that often precedes stabilization.

Exchange withdrawals point the same way. The share of XRP being withdrawn from exchanges reached its highest level since mid-August, according to on-chain data. Tokens moving off exchanges into private wallets are generally held rather than traded, which reduces the supply available for immediate sale. Withdrawals at a two-month high during a week when the price sat near $1.29 suggest buyers are taking delivery.

Long-term holders are adding. The holder net position change metric, which tracks whether long-term wallets are accumulating or distributing, reached 189,903,498 XRP on October 26, its highest reading in a month. That marks a sharp recovery from a near-zero reading of 1,052,427 XRP on October 13. In two weeks, long-term holders swung from neutral to their strongest accumulation of the month, even as XRP fell below $1.30.

Not every on-chain signal agrees. The number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP declined from 351 to 339, a drop of 12 wallets that suggests some mid-sized whales redistributed or reduced exposure. Exchange balances rose by 47 million XRP over the same window, which would add to sell-side supply. The data shows a split: the largest holders and long-term wallets are accumulating, while some mid-sized holders are taking profits or moving coins to exchanges.

Network activity spiked. Daily XRP transactions jumped 1,717% to a six-month peak, a surge that can reflect payments activity, exchange movements, tokenization or simply wallet reorganization. A spike of that size without a corresponding price move suggests activity driven by large holders or institutions rather than a retail rush.

The concentration cuts both ways. A market where 68.5% of supply sits in large wallets can stabilize quickly when those wallets accumulate, because the remaining float is thin. But it can also fall sharply if a few large holders decide to sell, because their positions dwarf daily volume of $1.57 billion.

For the forecast, the on-chain data provides a floor. Accumulation by long-term holders and the largest wallets near $1.27 to $1.30 explains why XRP has held that zone despite weak ETF flows and a bearish technical signal.

The Death Cross and the $1.27 Double Bottom

The technical picture contains two conflicting patterns, and the next daily close will decide which one wins.

The bearish signal came first. XRP formed a daily death cross on October 19, when its 20-day exponential moving average fell below its 50-day EMA. The crossover signals weakening momentum, and XRP has struggled to recover above either average since. A similar signal earlier in the cycle preceded a 30% decline. If XRP falls below $1.25, the next major support sits near $0.98, a level that would put the token below $1 for the first time since its mid-year low.

History offers a counterweight. The previous three death-cross signals on XRP’s daily chart were followed by rebounds of 31%, 24% and 18%, respectively, rather than extended declines. Death crosses are lagging indicators, and they often appear after much of a decline has already happened. XRP fell 14.6% in the month before the October 19 signal, so the crossover confirmed weakness that had already occurred.

The bullish pattern is shorter-term. On the four-hour chart, XRP has bounced twice from $1.27 support, forming a double bottom. The neckline sits at $1.31. A close above $1.31 would complete the pattern and open a move toward $1.35, the measured target. A failure to hold $1.27 would invalidate the double bottom and send XRP toward $1.25.

The daily structure adds detail. XRP’s daily RSI improved to 41.56, recovering from oversold territory but still below the 50 midpoint that separates bullish from bearish momentum. A daily close above $1.3138 would clear immediate resistance and expose the $1.3295 to $1.3299 zone, an area formed by the October 23 high and the October 21 low. The October 21 low itself undercut the $1.2548 support level, showing that the recent recovery followed further weakness.

The broader trend is bearish. XRP has made lower highs since the August rebound to $1.70 and the September recovery to $1.60, and it traded at $1.40 on October 10 before sliding to $1.30. The pattern of each rally failing at a lower level than the last remains intact.

For the forecast, the technical setup is binary. A daily close above $1.31 confirms the double bottom and targets $1.35 to $1.40. A daily close below $1.25 confirms the death-cross breakdown and targets $1.04 to $0.98.

RLUSD, BNY and Aviva: Ecosystem Growth Without Token Demand

Ripple’s ecosystem is expanding on several fronts, and the gap between that expansion and XRP’s price defines the token’s problem. RLUSD, Ripple’s dollar stablecoin, has grown to a market capitalization near $2.5 billion, and its reserves will now sit under federal oversight through the new trust bank. RLUSD is increasingly used in Ripple’s institutional payments and trading products.

Tokenization is moving onto the XRP Ledger. Aviva Investors tokenized a share class of its Sterling Liquidity Fund, a vehicle with assets near $29 billion, on the XRP Ledger. Ripple is connecting institutional infrastructure on the ledger through a collaboration with BNY, aiming to let institutions move from simply holding digital assets to using them in capital markets and trade finance. Ripple Treasury, launched in January 2026 after Ripple acquired GTreasury, offers corporate clients access to tokenized money-market funds.

Corporate treasury demand is building in a small way. Evernorth Holdings, a Ripple-backed XRP treasury company, plans an $80 million stock issuance to increase its XRP holdings. That provides a direct buying channel, though $80 million is small against XRP’s $1.57 billion of daily volume.

The problem is the link between these activities and the token. Tokenized funds on the XRP Ledger pay small transaction fees in XRP, but those fees are fractions of a cent. Institutions using RLUSD for payments hold dollars, not XRP. Custody services through the trust bank could eventually include XRP, but the charter’s initial focus is RLUSD reserves.

The market has noticed the gap. XRP fell 37% from early 2026 through late October even as RLUSD grew, tokenization deals multiplied and Ripple won its charter. Ripple the company is executing; XRP the token is not capturing the value.

That gap could close if three things happen. RLUSD issuance shifts toward the XRP Ledger, driving ledger activity. Ripple’s payment products use XRP as a bridge currency at larger scale. And institutional custody clients add XRP to their holdings through the trust bank. Each is possible; none is happening at a scale that moves price.

For the forecast, ecosystem growth is a long-term support, not a short-term catalyst. Swell announcements this week could produce headlines, but the charter reaction showed that corporate news without a direct XRP mechanism does not move the token.

The XRP Ledger Amendment Delay: Validators Push Back to November 4

A governance hiccup on the XRP Ledger added a minor headwind. A cleanup amendment, a protocol change that removes outdated code, had been progressing toward activation when validator support fell to 26 of 35 on October 21. XRP Ledger amendments require support from at least 80% of trusted validators, 28 of 35, sustained for two weeks. The drop below that threshold reset the approval period.

Support has since recovered, and the amendment is now scheduled to activate on November 4, 2026. The delay itself has no direct effect on XRP’s price, but it highlights the ledger’s governance model, where a small set of validators must coordinate on protocol changes. A two-week reset means the amendment activates in the first week of November rather than in October.

The governance process matters for institutional users. Banks and asset managers evaluating the XRP Ledger for tokenization and payments want predictable protocol changes. A reset caused by validator support dropping just below the threshold shows the system working as designed, rejecting changes without sufficient consensus, but also shows how narrow the margins can be.

For traders, the November 4 date sits two days after the Federal Reserve decision and one day after the U.S. midterm elections, in a week already crowded with macro catalysts. The amendment is unlikely to move price on its own.

The broader point is that XRP’s fundamentals are moving slowly. Protocol upgrades, ETF launches and Ripple’s regulatory wins all advance the network’s long-term position, but none creates the kind of immediate demand shock that would break XRP out of its range. The token needs either a macro catalyst, such as a dovish Fed, or a direct demand catalyst, such as a large custody inflow or a surge in ETF subscriptions.

For the forecast, the amendment is noise. It adds no meaningful risk and no meaningful upside.

The Fed on Wednesday and Crypto’s Rate Sensitivity

The Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET is the macro event that could break XRP’s range. Fed funds futures price a hold at 3.75%-4.00% above 90% probability, with a December hike close to fully priced. Markets see no rate cuts in 2026. The Fed raised rates in September as the U.S.-Iran war’s energy shock pushed CPI to 3.7% and the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge to 3.4%.

Higher rates have hit crypto broadly. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 5.00% on Tuesday, a level that raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. XRP fell from $2.66 a year ago to $1.30, bitcoin from $114,125 to $80,427, and ether from $4,121 to $2,312. Every major crypto asset has lost ground in a year when the Fed shifted from cuts to hikes.

XRP has held up better than ether this month. XRP is down 14.6% over 30 days against ether’s 14.2% decline and bitcoin’s 4.6%, a roughly even performance with ether but weaker than bitcoin. On Tuesday, XRP’s 2% gain outperformed both bitcoin’s 0.37% and ether’s 1.5% decline, a sign that XRP-specific holder demand provided support.

The U.S. data gives the Fed no reason to soften. Consumer confidence jumped to 91.7 in October, durable goods orders rose 1.8% and jobless claims sit at 194,000. A strong economy supports a hawkish Fed.

Three outcomes matter for XRP. A hold with language that keeps December open but stresses data dependence would ease pressure on crypto and could push XRP through $1.31 toward $1.35. A hold with explicit guidance toward December, the base case, would keep XRP pinned in the $1.25 to $1.31 range. A surprise hike, priced below 10%, would hit crypto broadly and send XRP through $1.25 toward $1.10.

Bitcoin’s options expiry adds a second risk. Deribit’s October expiry on Friday at 08:00 UTC carries $11 billion of bitcoin options with a max-pain level at $78,000. A bitcoin break below $78,000 would likely drag XRP below $1.25.

For the forecast, the Fed sets the volatility, and XRP’s whale support sets the floor.

XRP Versus the Market: Outperforming Ether, Lagging Bitcoin’s Institutions

XRP’s relative position among crypto assets shows a token with a distinct holder base and a weak institutional bid.

Against ether, XRP has held up well this month. Both assets fell roughly 14% over 30 days, but Tuesday’s session showed divergence: XRP rose 2% while ether fell 1.5%. Ether faces specific headwinds, including $88.58 million of ETF outflows on Monday, the largest corporate buyer nearing a self-imposed cap and Ethereum Foundation selling. XRP’s ETF flows are smaller in absolute terms, so outflows of $3.61 million barely register against its market cap.

Against bitcoin, XRP lags on institutional demand. Bitcoin ETFs took in $110.3 million on Monday and hold $102.84 billion in total. XRP ETFs lost $3.61 million and hold $1.47 billion. Bitcoin has corporate treasuries, sovereign interest and deep derivatives markets. XRP’s institutional infrastructure is younger and thinner.

Against the broader altcoin market, XRP is a relative safe haven. Solana traded below $100 on Tuesday, and Stellar set a new 60-day low. XRP’s 2% gain made it one of the stronger major altcoins on the day, likely reflecting the accumulation by large holders and long-term wallets visible on-chain.

The crypto equity backdrop is weak. Crypto-linked stocks fell sharply on Monday as risk capital rotated toward AI equities after Anthropic’s IPO filing and Meta’s $25 billion stock sale. Strategy fell 4.21%, Circle 7.07% and BitMine 6.52%. That rotation has drained marginal capital from the entire digital asset sector, and XRP has not been immune.

XRP’s market cap ranking reflects its position. At $81.85 billion, XRP ranks fifth among digital assets, behind bitcoin, ether, Tether’s USDT and BNB. That ranking has slipped as stablecoins grew and BNB held its value.

For the forecast, XRP’s relative strength against ether and the broader altcoin complex is a modest positive. It suggests the token has a committed holder base that absorbs selling. But without institutional flows matching bitcoin’s, XRP cannot lead a crypto recovery; it can only follow one.

Technical Map: $1.25 Floor, $1.31 Neckline, $1.40 Ceiling

The chart has drawn clear levels, and XRP sits just below its key resistance.

Support begins at $1.2734, Tuesday’s session low, and $1.27, the four-hour double-bottom level that has held twice. Below that, $1.2548 marks the support that broke on October 21, and $1.25 is the round number that separates the current range from a deeper decline. A daily close below $1.25 would confirm the death-cross breakdown and open $1.10, then $1.04, XRP’s June 30 level, and $0.98, a move below $1 that would test the year’s floor. The late-July low near $1.07 sits in that zone as well.

Resistance starts at $1.3032, Tuesday’s session high, and $1.31, the four-hour neckline. A daily close above $1.3138 would clear immediate resistance and complete the double bottom. Above that, $1.3295 to $1.3299, formed by the October 23 high and the October 21 low, is the next hurdle. The $1.35 level is the measured target of the double bottom. Above $1.35, $1.40, where XRP traded on October 10, is the major ceiling and the level that would signal the October decline has reversed. Beyond $1.40, the $1.52 level from one month ago and the $1.60 September high come into view.

The trend structure is bearish on the daily chart. XRP trades below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs after the October 19 death cross, with lower highs from the August peak at $1.70 to $1.60 in September, $1.40 in early October and $1.33 on October 23. The daily RSI at 41.56 is recovering but has not crossed 50.

The four-hour chart is more constructive. The double bottom at $1.27 and the recovery toward $1.30 show buyers defending the zone. Volume rising 40% on Tuesday’s bounce adds weight to the defense.

The key level is $1.31. Three tests since October 21 have failed there. A fourth test that succeeds would confirm that holders absorbing supply at $1.27 have exhausted sellers.

The trading range for the week is $1.25 to $1.35, with a neutral bias until $1.31 breaks.

What Could Break the Range: Swell, ETF Flows, a Softer Fed

The $1.25 to $1.35 range is stable only as long as weak institutional demand and strong holder accumulation stay balanced. Four developments could break it.

The first is Ripple’s Swell conference in New York this week. Ripple typically uses Swell to announce partnerships, product launches and institutional deals. An announcement that creates direct XRP demand, such as the trust bank adding XRP custody for a major institution, a large bank using XRP as a bridge asset or a meaningful shift of RLUSD issuance onto the XRP Ledger, would differ from the charter news and could push XRP through $1.35. Announcements focused on RLUSD or Ripple’s corporate products would likely repeat the charter’s muted reaction.

The second is ETF flows. A return to weekly inflows above $10 million, particularly if spread across several funds rather than concentrated in one, would signal renewed institutional interest. The pending WisdomTree XRP ETF could add a new channel. Weekly outflows above $5 million, by contrast, would confirm that institutional demand has rolled over.

The third is the Fed. A dovish surprise on Wednesday would lift crypto broadly and give XRP the macro tailwind to clear $1.31 and $1.35. A hawkish surprise would push it through $1.25.

The fourth is bitcoin. XRP trades with high correlation to bitcoin on large moves. A bitcoin rally through $82,500 after Friday’s options expiry would likely pull XRP toward $1.40. A bitcoin break below $78,000 would likely drag XRP toward $1.10.

On-chain behavior adds a fifth, slower factor. If wallets holding 10 million or more XRP continue accumulating and exchange withdrawals stay elevated, the float available to sellers will keep shrinking. That supports a floor at $1.25 to $1.27 but does not by itself create upside momentum.

The risks to the downside are clear: a hawkish Fed, a bitcoin breakdown, continued ETF outflows, a large whale distribution from the 68.5% of supply held in big wallets, or a Swell week that produces only corporate headlines with no XRP-specific demand.

XRP Price Forecast: Three Scenarios Into November

The forecast splits into three paths, with Wednesday’s Fed decision, Swell announcements and bitcoin’s reaction to Friday’s options expiry deciding which plays out.

The base case, with the highest probability, is a range between $1.25 and $1.35 through the first week of November. The Fed holds at 3.75%-4.00% with language that keeps December open, bitcoin stays between $78,000 and $82,500 through the expiry, spot XRP ETF flows remain near zero, and Swell produces corporate announcements without direct XRP demand. Long-term holders keep accumulating near $1.27, defending the double bottom, while sellers cap rallies at $1.31 to $1.33. In this scenario, XRP trades near $1.28 to $1.32 by early November.

The bull case requires a daily close above $1.35. The triggers would be a Swell announcement that creates direct XRP demand, a Fed that softens December guidance, a bitcoin rally through $82,500, and a return of ETF inflows above $10 million per week. In that scenario, XRP would clear $1.31, complete the four-hour double bottom, push through $1.35 and target $1.40 within 30 days, a gain of 7.7% from $1.30. A close above $1.40 would reverse the October decline and open $1.52, the level from one month ago. The history of past death crosses being followed by rebounds of 18% to 31% supports this path if the macro backdrop cooperates.

The bear case requires a daily close below $1.25. The triggers would be a hawkish Fed surprise, a bitcoin break below $78,000 into Friday’s expiry, continued ETF outflows and distribution from large holders. In that scenario, XRP would confirm the death-cross breakdown and fall toward $1.10, then $1.04, a decline of 20% from spot. A further break would open $0.98, below $1 for the first time since mid-year.

Weighing the scenarios, the balance is neutral with a slight bullish tilt in the near term. The death cross and weak ETF demand are real headwinds, but whale accumulation at a two-and-a-half-year high, long-term holder buying at a one-month high and exchange withdrawals at a two-month high provide a floor that bitcoin and ether lack this week.

The 30-day price target is $1.40, conditional on a daily close above $1.35. A daily close below $1.25 would shift the target to $1.04.

Verdict: Neutral in the $1.25 to $1.35 Range, $1.31 Decides and $1.40 Needs a Real Catalyst

XRP at $1.30 is a token whose company is winning while its price is not. Ripple secured final OCC approval for Ripple National Trust Bank on October 26, giving RLUSD’s $2.5 billion in reserves federal oversight and opening an institutional custody business. Tokenized funds are launching on the XRP Ledger, Ripple is building with BNY, and Swell opens this week in New York. None of it moved XRP, because the charter gives the token no designated role and RLUSD growth creates no direct XRP demand. The token sits 64.5% below its $3.66 all-time high and 28.6% below where it closed 2025.

Institutional demand has stalled. Spot XRP ETFs lost $3.61 million on Monday while bitcoin ETFs took in $110.3 million, after a 13-week inflow streak ended in mid-October. The funds have taken in $1.801 billion since launch but hold only $1.469 billion, a $332 million gap that reflects the price decline. Weekly flows of $4 million represent 0.3% of assets.

The holders tell a different story. Wallets with at least 10 million XRP control 68.5% of supply, the most since November 2022. Long-term holder net position change hit 189.9 million XRP on October 26, a one-month high, up from near zero on October 13. Exchange withdrawals reached their highest share since mid-August. That accumulation explains why XRP held $1.27 twice and outperformed both bitcoin and ether on Tuesday.

The verdict is neutral. The October 19 death cross and the series of lower highs keep the daily trend bearish, while the four-hour double bottom at $1.27 and whale accumulation build a floor. A daily close above $1.31 would complete the double bottom and target $1.35, and a close above $1.35, backed by a Fed that softens December guidance, a bitcoin rally through $82,500 or a Swell announcement that creates direct XRP demand, would put $1.40 in reach within 30 days. A daily close below $1.25 would confirm the breakdown and shift the target to $1.04, with $0.98 as the extension. Until $1.31 breaks, XRP trades a range where Ripple’s corporate wins and the token’s price remain two separate stories.

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