XRPI ETF Targets $6.69 and XRPR ETF Eyes $10.21 After a 7% Drop, as XRP Tests the $1 Zone That Sparked August’s 52% Rally

The Volatility Shares XRP ETF (NASDAQ:XRPI) closed Monday, November 9, at $5.83, down $0.42, or 6.72%. It opened at $5.83, rose to a high of $5.94 and fell to a low of $5.76. Volume reached 1,048,000 shares. In after-hours trade, it slipped another $0.02, or 0.34%, to $5.81. The fund now trades 7.6% above its 52-week low of $5.42 and 61.7% below its 52-week high of $15.24.

The REX-Osprey XRP ETF (Cboe BZX:XRPR) closed at $8.90, down $0.67, or 7.00%. It opened at $8.87, reached $9.02 and held $8.87 as its intraday low. Volume was far thinner, at 26,298 shares. XRPR sits 9.9% above its 52-week low of $8.10 and 58.2% below its 52-week high of $21.28. Both funds lost about 7% on a day when the S&P 500 rose 2.59%.

The losses reflect XRP’s slide since Friday’s US close. XRP traded near $1.09 at 21:40 UTC on Monday, after touching $1.0785 earlier in the session, its lowest level since August 19. Over the weekend, it fell from about $1.16 to $1.11 as a wave of crypto liquidations hit the market. Because US-listed ETFs only trade during market hours, Monday’s 7% drop captured the full weekend and Monday move in XRP at once.

Every XRP ETF fell by a similar amount. The Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) dropped 6.65% to $11.58. Franklin’s XRPZ fell 6.66% to $11.87. Bitwise’s XRP fund lost 6.69% to $12.19. Grayscale’s GXRP fell 6.67% to $21.13, and 21Shares’ TOXR dropped 6.50% to $10.65. The 2x leveraged XRPT lost 13.60% to $19.06, twice the move of the unleveraged funds. The near-identical declines show the funds tracked XRP as designed.

The bigger picture is grim. XRP is down about 40.5% in 2026 and has closed five weeks in a row lower. Spot XRP ETFs went four straight sessions without a single dollar of inflows last week. The Binance hacker has moved 139 million stolen XRP since November 5. XRPI and XRPR give investors two different ways to hold XRP through a brokerage account. Both have lost about 60% from their highs. The question now is whether the $1 zone in XRP can set a floor for both funds.

XRPI: A Futures-Based Fund With a 1.68% Expense Ratio

XRPI was the first non-leveraged XRP ETF in the US. It launched on May 22, 2025, after the CFTC and CME Group began trading XRP futures earlier that month. The fund seeks to deliver returns that generally correspond to XRP’s price performance. It does this mainly through CME XRP futures contracts, held through a Cayman Islands subsidiary. It does not hold XRP directly.

The fund’s holdings show how simple the structure is. In mid-October, XRPI held 1,500 CME XRP futures contracts for the October expiry, with a notional value equal to about 100% of net assets. Cash and Treasury bills backed those positions. As each contract nears expiry, the fund sells it and buys the next month’s contract. That monthly roll is the fund’s main operating task.

XRPI is expensive by ETF standards. Its management fee is 1.15%, and its total expense ratio is 1.68%. That compares with 0.75% for XRPR and lower fees for most spot XRP ETFs. On a $10,000 position, XRPI charges $168 a year, against $75 for XRPR. Over long holding periods, that gap adds up. It explains part of why XRPI has underperformed XRP since launch.

The fund pays distributions, an unusual feature for a crypto ETF. Its yield stands at 2.79%. The income comes from interest on the cash and Treasury bills held as futures collateral. At current US short-term rates near 4%, that collateral earns a meaningful return. The distribution offsets part of the fund’s high fees, but it does not change the fund’s direct exposure to XRP’s price.

XRPI is the largest of the two funds. Its net assets stood at $93.89 million on November 6, down from $99.39 million in mid-October. The fund had about 13.97 million shares outstanding in October. Its net asset value on November 6 was $6.24, and its market price stayed within a few cents of that figure. With 1,048,000 shares traded on Monday, XRPI is liquid enough for most investors, with typical spreads around 0.13%.

XRPR: Direct XRP Holdings in a ‘40 Act Wrapper

XRPR takes a different approach. It launched on September 18, 2025, as the first US ETF to hold XRP directly. It is registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, the same law that governs mutual funds. That structure differs from most spot crypto ETFs, which are registered under the Securities Act of 1933 as grantor trusts. The ‘40 Act gives XRPR stronger investor protections but requires a more complex portfolio.

The fund holds XRP directly as its main asset. It also allocates at least 40% of its assets to other exchange-traded products that track XRP. A recent snapshot showed the CoinShares XRP ETP at about 25% of the portfolio. XRPR uses a Cayman Islands subsidiary for up to 25% of its holdings, a structure REX-Osprey also uses for its Solana staking fund. Cash and Treasury bills make up a small share.

XRPR charges a 0.75% expense ratio, less than half XRPI’s 1.68%. It uses a fee waiver to avoid charging investors twice for the subsidiary and underlying ETPs. For long-term holders, the lower fee is XRPR’s main advantage over XRPI. Over five years at current fees, a $10,000 position in XRPR would pay about $375 in fees, against $840 in XRPI.

XRPR is smaller and less liquid. Its assets under management stand at roughly $52 million to $56 million, with about 4.4 million shares outstanding. Monday’s volume of 26,298 shares was about 2.5% of XRPI’s volume. Thin trading means wider bid-ask spreads and occasional premiums or discounts to net asset value. The fund has traded at premiums above 1% at times. Investors should use limit orders rather than market orders.

The fund’s track record shows how closely it follows XRP. Since its 52-week high of $21.28, XRPR has fallen 58.2%. Over a similar stretch, XRP fell about 57.7% from its 52-week high of $2.5772 to about $1.09. The close match reflects direct holdings. XRPR does not face the futures roll costs that weigh on XRPI. Its tracking gap over the past year comes mainly from fees and the timing of its holdings in other ETPs.

Why XRPI Lags XRP: Futures Roll Costs and Fees

XRPI has underperformed XRP and XRPR over the past year. From its 52-week high of $15.24, XRPI has fallen 61.7%. XRP fell about 57.7% from its high, and XRPR fell 58.2%. The extra 4 percentage points of decline in XRPI reflects the cost of holding futures instead of the underlying token.

Futures roll costs are the main drag. When the price of next month’s XRP futures contract sits above the current month’s price, a market condition called contango, XRPI must pay more each time it rolls its position forward. Over a year, those small costs compound. Crypto futures markets have often traded in contango, because traders pay a premium for leveraged long exposure. That premium transfers from fund holders to futures sellers each month.

Fees add to the gap. XRPI’s 1.68% expense ratio is more than twice XRPR’s 0.75%. Over a full year, that difference alone accounts for nearly 1 percentage point of underperformance. The fund’s distributions, at a 2.79% yield, offset part of the cost. Total return, including distributions, narrows the gap with XRP, but does not close it.

The structure has advantages too. Futures are highly regulated and trade on the CME, the largest US derivatives exchange. XRPI holds no tokens, so it carries no custody risk from wallets or exchanges. For institutional investors who cannot hold crypto directly or through grantor trusts, XRPI offers a familiar structure. That explains why it held nearly $94 million in assets even after spot XRP ETFs became available.

The choice between the two funds depends on time horizon. For short-term trading, XRPI’s higher liquidity and tight spreads make it practical. For long-term holding, XRPR’s lower fees and direct exposure make it more efficient. Neither fund can avoid XRP’s price risk. The 7% drop on Monday hit both equally. The difference between them only matters over months, not days.

XRP’s Slide: Five Red Weeks and a Test of $1

Both funds depend on XRP. The token traded near $1.09 on Monday after falling to $1.0785, its lowest level since August 19. It closed Sunday, November 8, at $1.1105, down from $1.3047 on November 4. That is a 15% drop in four sessions. XRP has now closed five weeks in a row lower, a losing streak that has historically ended at lower prices within the following three months.

The 2026 decline is steep. XRP ended 2025 at $1.8400, so it is down about 40.5% for the year. One year ago, it traded near $2.37. Its 52-week high of $2.5772 came on November 10, 2025. Its 52-week low of $0.9884 came on August 14, 2026. At $1.09, XRP trades just 10.3% above that low. The $1 level sits about 8.3% below the current price.

The August low matters for both funds. In mid-August, XRP traded within a few cents of $1 for eight sessions. Buyers defended the $0.9884 to $0.9959 zone three times before a sharp reversal. XRP then rallied 52% in three days, from $1.1044 on August 19 to an intraday high of $1.6838 on August 22. XRPI and XRPR set their 52-week lows near that August bottom. A return to the $1 zone would test whether those buyers return.

The broader crypto market added pressure. Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since August over the weekend, briefly touching about $73,477. More than $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, most of them bets on higher prices. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion in the week of November 2 to 6, their worst week since June. When the whole market sells off, XRP tends to fall harder because of its exchange-driven trading base.

XRP’s specific problem compounds the pressure. Since November 5, the hacker behind the October 29 Binance theft has moved 139 million stolen XRP, worth about $151 million, out of one wallet. About 94.5 million XRP remain in the hacker’s known wallets. That supply hangs over the market. Every rally gives the hacker a better price to sell into. XRPI and XRPR will not recover sustainably until that overhang clears.

Spot XRP ETF Flows Stall: Four Days of Zero Inflows

XRP ETF demand has dried up. US spot XRP ETFs recorded a net outflow of $529,500 on Monday, November 2, all from the Canary XRP ETF. They then recorded zero net flows on November 3, 4, 5 and 6. Four straight sessions without a single dollar of new money was the longest such stretch since August. The pause came as XRP fell 7.1% over the week.

The trend has been building for weeks. Spot XRP ETFs took in net inflows every week from mid-July to early October, a 13-week streak that lifted cumulative inflows to about $1.80 billion. September brought $121.4 million in inflows. October brought just $18.8 million, an 84.5% drop. The last positive week ended October 30, at $4.3 million. Since then, new institutional money has stopped arriving.

The spot funds now hold $1.34 billion in net assets, about 1.82% of XRP’s market value. Cumulative inflows stand at $1.81 billion. The gap of about $470 million represents unrealised losses on the tokens the funds bought. ETF investors who bought XRP at higher prices are sitting on paper losses of about 26%. That overhang creates selling pressure whenever prices recover toward their average cost.

XRPI and XRPR are not part of that headline flow data, which covers grantor trust ETFs such as XRPC, XRPZ and Bitwise’s XRP fund. But they reflect the same institutional mood. XRPI’s net assets fell from $99.39 million in mid-October to $93.89 million in early November, a 5.5% drop. Part of that decline came from XRP’s price fall. Part came from redemptions. The pattern matches the broader ETF market.

The first anniversary of the spot XRP ETF market falls on November 13. That date will put the funds’ one-year inflow total against the $1.81 billion they have drawn since launch. More practically, traders will watch for the first day of positive flows after last week’s stall. A return to inflows would signal that institutional buyers see value near $1. That would support XRPI and XRPR at the same time.

The Binance Hacker’s XRP Overhang

The single largest XRP-specific risk is the stolen supply from the Binance hack. On October 29, attackers drained about $6.34 billion from Binance across ten blockchains, the largest crypto theft on record. The haul included 233.46 million XRP, worth about $254 million at $1.09. The XRP Ledger has no mechanism to freeze tokens, so the stolen coins can move freely.

The coins sat dormant for about 80 hours. On November 2, the attacker split all 233.46 million XRP across six new wallets. On Thursday, November 5, distribution began. Since then, 139 million XRP have left one of the hacker’s wallets in 728 payments to 79 addresses. Much of it has been swapped into Bitcoin through cross-chain exchange protocols. About 94.5 million XRP remain in the hacker’s known wallets, worth about $103 million.

The timing matches the price. The first payouts went out on November 5, the same day XRP fell 7.57%, its worst session of the week. XRPI and XRPR fell sharply that day. Each subsequent wave of distributions has coincided with fresh selling. The hacker is a forced seller who needs to convert stolen tokens before they can be traced or blocked. That makes the supply price-insensitive.

The overhang matters more for XRP than its size suggests. The full stolen stash equals 0.37% of XRP’s circulating supply. But net new buying on any given day is a small fraction of XRP’s $3.54 billion in daily volume. Selling $151 million of XRP into thin spot demand over four days hits the price far harder than its share of supply implies. XRPI and XRPR holders feel that pressure directly.

The overhang will clear once the remaining 94.5 million XRP have been distributed and sold. On current evidence, that could take one to two more weeks. Until then, rallies in XRP will likely meet selling from the hacker’s wallets. That caps the upside for XRPI and XRPR in the short term. Once the overhang clears, the main XRP-specific source of selling disappears.

Regulatory Tailwinds: Ripple’s Trust Bank and Coinbase’s Charter

XRP’s regulatory position has rarely been stronger. On October 26, Ripple announced that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency had granted final approval for Ripple National Trust Bank. The charter lets Ripple hold reserves for its RLUSD stablecoin, worth about $2.6 billion, and provide digital asset custody to institutions under federal supervision. The approval came 318 days after conditional approval in December 2025.

On Monday, Coinbase secured its own final OCC approval for a national trust bank. Coinbase serves as custodian for many crypto ETFs, including several XRP funds. A federally supervised custodian strengthens the case for institutional investors to hold XRP through ETFs. It also reduces the operational risk that has long worried pension funds and large asset managers.

The regulatory picture differs between the two funds. XRPI holds CME futures, which are regulated by the CFTC. It has no direct custody exposure. XRPR holds XRP directly and through other ETPs, so it depends on custodians. Stronger federal oversight of custodians makes XRPR’s structure more attractive to conservative investors. It does not change XRPI’s risk profile.

The approvals have not reached the price. XRP traded at $1.3296 on October 27, when Ripple’s charter was confirmed. It has fallen about 18% since. The charter supports Ripple’s RLUSD and custody businesses, neither of which requires buying XRP. Regulatory progress builds a long-term foundation for XRP ETFs, but it does not create immediate demand for the token.

The regulatory clarity still limits the downside. XRP’s legal status in the US is settled. Spot and futures XRP ETFs trade on major exchanges. Federal trust banks now custody crypto assets. A regulatory shock that would push XRP sharply below its August low is unlikely. That sets a practical floor under XRPI and XRPR, even if the floor is lower than current prices.

XRPT Shows the Leveraged Risk: Down 13.60% and 91.3% From Its High

The leveraged XRP fund shows what happens when volatility meets daily leverage. The 2x XRPT fell 13.60% on Monday to $19.06, twice the move of the unleveraged XRP ETFs. It traded between $18.71 and $19.90 on volume of 386,352 shares. Its 52-week high of $218.80 sits 91.3% above the current price.

That 91.3% loss contrasts with XRP’s 57.7% drop from its high. A 2x fund in a volatile, falling market can lose far more than twice the underlying asset’s decline. Daily compounding magnifies losses when prices swing in both directions. XRP has been one of the most volatile major tokens over the past year. That volatility has destroyed most of XRPT’s value.

The comparison matters for XRPI and XRPR holders. Both unleveraged funds have lost about 60% from their highs, roughly in line with XRP. They have not suffered the extra decay that hit XRPT. For investors who want XRP exposure without amplified risk, XRPI and XRPR remain the practical choices. XRPT is a short-term trading tool, not a holding.

Leveraged XRP funds also signal market sentiment. Heavy volume in XRPT shows that traders are still betting on sharp moves in XRP. Monday’s 386,352 shares traded was a large figure for a fund at this price. Some of those trades likely came from investors buying the dip with leverage. Others likely came from forced selling as positions hit stop-loss levels. The activity confirms that XRP remains a high-volatility trading asset.

The leveraged fund also offers a useful reference for upside scenarios. If XRP rallies 15% from $1.09 to $1.25 in a few steady sessions, XRPT would rise about 30% or more. XRPI and XRPR would rise about 15%. The unleveraged funds offer a cleaner, more predictable way to capture a rebound. For most investors, that predictability matters more than leverage.

Valuation Map: Translating XRP Levels Into XRPI and XRPR

Both funds track XRP closely enough to translate XRP price levels into fund prices. At Monday’s close, XRPI traded at about 5.35 times XRP’s price, and XRPR at about 8.17 times. Those ratios shift slowly over time as fees, roll costs and distributions accumulate. Over a few weeks, they provide a reliable guide.

For upside targets, the key XRP level is $1.25, the shelf where XRP closed four sessions in a row from October 30 to November 2. A move from $1.09 to $1.25 would be a 14.7% gain. That would lift XRPI to about $6.69 and XRPR to about $10.21. Both levels sit well below the funds’ October trading ranges, so the move would not require a full recovery.

The extended upside target is $1.3353, XRP’s November 4 intraday high. Reaching it would require a 22.5% rally from current levels. That would lift XRPI to about $7.14 and XRPR to about $10.90. XRPI traded near $7.14 in mid-October, when its net asset value was $7.11. A return there would erase the November decline.

On the downside, the $1.00 level would mean an 8.3% drop in XRP. That would take XRPI to about $5.35, just below its 52-week low of $5.42. XRPR would fall to about $8.17, just above its 52-week low of $8.10. A drop to XRP’s 52-week low of $0.9884 would put XRPI near $5.29 and XRPR near $8.08. Both funds would set new 52-week lows.

The map shows the risk-reward balance. From Monday’s close, a 14.7% rally to the $1.25 XRP shelf would lift XRPI by $0.86 and XRPR by $1.31. An 8.3% drop to $1 would cut XRPI by $0.48 and XRPR by $0.73. The upside is about 1.8 times the downside to the $1 level. That ratio improves for buyers near the $1 zone and worsens if the funds rally without a change in XRP’s fundamentals.

Technical Map Above: XRP at $1.12, $1.16 and the $1.25 Shelf

The first resistance level for XRP is $1.12, Monday’s intraday high zone, about 2.8% above the current price. A move there would lift XRPI to about $5.99 and XRPR to about $9.15. That would recover roughly a third of Monday’s losses in the two funds. A close above $1.12 would show buyers absorbing the weekend selling.

The next level is $1.1620, XRP’s November 7 close, 6.6% above the current price. Clearing it would end the five-day losing streak in XRP. XRPI would trade near $6.21, close to its November 6 net asset value of $6.24. XRPR would trade near $9.49. That level would bring both funds back to where they stood before the weekend liquidations.

Above $1.1620 sits $1.2060, the November 5 close, where the hacker’s distribution began. A move there would lift XRPI to about $6.45 and XRPR to about $9.85. The stretch from $1.1620 to $1.2060 is where selling became heavy last week. Volume during any move into that zone would need to match Monday’s $3.54 billion in XRP to be credible.

The major resistance shelf runs from $1.2478 to $1.2544, the October 30 to November 2 closes. That is the zone behind the positive targets of $6.69 for XRPI and $10.21 for XRPR. XRP closed four times within a 0.7-cent band there before breaking down. Broken support often turns into resistance. A close back above $1.25 would mark the end of the November sell-off.

Momentum indicators are deeply oversold. XRP’s daily relative strength index fell to about 29 on November 7 and has dropped further since. Oversold readings that deep often precede sharp short-covering rallies. The August pattern, when XRP rallied 52% in three days from near $1.10, shows how fast a rebound can come. For XRPI and XRPR, a similar move would put the positive targets within reach in days rather than weeks.

Technical Map Below: XRP at $1.0785, $1 and the $0.9884 Floor

The first support level for XRP is Monday’s intraday low of $1.0785, about 1.1% below the current price. A close below it would confirm a new leg lower. For XRPI, that level translates to about $5.77, close to Monday’s low of $5.76. For XRPR, it translates to about $8.81.

The critical support is $1.00. XRP traded within a few cents of $1 for eight sessions in mid-August, with six closes between $0.9920 and $1.0081. That cluster shows heavy buying interest. A test of $1 would take XRPI to about $5.35 and XRPR to about $8.17. XRPI would break below its 52-week low of $5.42, while XRPR would hold just above its $8.10 low.

The floor is XRP’s 52-week low of $0.9884, set on August 14. Lows of $0.9891 on August 18 and $0.9959 on August 19 sit just above it. Three bottoms within 0.75 cents form a strong support band. A test of $0.9884 would put XRPI near $5.29 and XRPR near $8.08. Both funds would set new 52-week lows.

A break below $0.9884 would leave little nearby support. A drop toward $0.90 would be likely as stop-loss orders and leveraged long positions near $1 are triggered. That would take XRPI toward $4.82 and XRPR toward $7.35. That scenario requires the hacker’s remaining supply, weak ETF demand and a poor macro backdrop to combine. All three are present now, which keeps the risk real.

The downside map shows the zone where long-term buyers are most likely to act. The $1.00 to $0.9884 band in XRP is where the August bottom formed. For XRPI, that zone is $5.29 to $5.35. For XRPR, it is $8.08 to $8.17. A strong rebound from that zone on rising volume and renewed ETF inflows would mark the most likely bottom for the move.

Event Risk and the Verdict on XRPI and XRPR

The next two weeks bring several catalysts. Tuesday’s US consumer price index will set the tone for rate expectations and risk appetite. Monday’s spot crypto ETF flow data will publish the same day. November 13 marks the first anniversary of the spot XRP ETF market. Throughout the period, the hacker’s remaining 94.5 million XRP will remain the key on-chain data point. Any move in Bitcoin will also drive XRP and both funds.

The bearish case is clear. XRPI fell 6.72% to $5.83 and XRPR fell 7.00% to $8.90 on Monday. XRP has lost about 40.5% in 2026 and closed five weeks lower. Spot XRP ETFs went four sessions without inflows, and their $1.34 billion in assets sits about $470 million below cumulative inflows. The Binance hacker has moved 139 million stolen XRP. XRPI carries a 1.68% expense ratio and futures roll costs that make it trail XRP over time. Both funds sit within 10% of their 52-week lows.

The bullish case rests on positioning and history. XRP is deeply oversold, with its daily relative strength index below 30. It trades just 10.3% above its 52-week low, a level that held through August and produced a 52% rally in three days. The regulatory picture has improved, with federal trust charters for Ripple and Coinbase. XRPR offers direct XRP exposure at a 0.75% fee. XRPI offers liquid, CFTC-regulated futures exposure and pays a 2.79% yield. Once the hacker’s supply clears, the main XRP-specific source of selling disappears.

The balance favours buying weakness near the $1 zone. The near-term risk still points to a test of $1, but the upside from that zone is larger than the downside below it.The verdict on XRPI and XRPR is a buy on weakness, with positive targets of $6.69 for XRPI and $10.21 for XRPR. Those targets correspond to XRP returning to its $1.25 shelf, a 14.7% gain from current levels. An extended rally to XRP’s November 4 high of $1.3353 would lift XRPI to $7.14 and XRPR to $10.90. The best entry zone sits at $5.29 to $5.35 for XRPI and $8.08 to $8.17 for XRPR, matching XRP’s $0.9884 to $1.00 support band. A daily XRP close below $0.9884 cancels the buy view. For long-term holders, XRPR’s lower fee and direct holdings make it the more efficient choice. For active traders, XRPI’s liquidity makes it the better tool.

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