SPY ETF Closes at $754.37 After a 2.5% Week as Chips Sink and Staples Lead, $780 Target in Sight

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE Arca: SPY) closed Friday, November 13, at $754.37, down $2.75 or 0.36% from Thursday’s close of $757.12. The fund opened at $760.05, touched a session high of $760.10 in the first minutes of trading, then fell to an intraday low of $747.88 by late morning before recovering through the afternoon. The final print sat 0.9% above the low. SPY slipped to $752.34 in after-hours trading, down another 0.27%, and the fund carries a market value of $680.90 billion.

The S&P 500 index followed the same path. It closed at 7,561.67, down 30.73 points or 0.40%, after trading as low as 7,530 at 11:31 a.m. Eastern time, a decline of 0.82% at that point. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.91% to 25,136.27, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 50.46 points, or 0.10%, to 52,347.55. The Russell 2000 fell 0.32%.

The week was strong despite Friday’s dip. The S&P 500 gained 184.81 points, or 2.5%, over five sessions, after Monday’s rebound from the prior week’s AI selloff. The Nasdaq rose 2.3%, its best week since August, and the Dow climbed 2.1%. SPY finished the week up 2.5% from its prior Friday close near $736.

The longer view shows a market just below its highs. SPY’s 52-week range runs from $629.28 to $781.62. At $754.37, the fund sits 3.5% below its record and 19.9% above its 52-week low. Over the past 12 months, SPY has gained 11.9%.

Friday’s session told a rotation story. Stocks opened higher, then turned lower as chipmakers sold off. AMD fell 8.75%, Broadcom 4.76% and Nvidia 2.01%. Consumer staples led the sector table, with Coca-Cola up 1.86% and Walmart up 1.51%. Money moved out of technology and into defensive sectors, which explains why the Dow closed green while the Nasdaq fell 0.91%.

The thesis for this forecast is that the S&P 500 is absorbing a sharp shock to its largest technology names without breaking its broader uptrend. Nvidia’s leadership crisis, rising Treasury yields and a December Federal Reserve hike have all hit in the same week, yet SPY gained 2.5%. Breadth outside the chip sector is holding, and the rotation into staples, industrials and financials shows money staying in equities rather than leaving. The upside target is $780, a 3.4% gain from $754.37 that would put SPY within $1.62 of its record high.

Friday’s Session: Higher Open, Chip Selloff, Afternoon Recovery

The intraday path explains why Friday’s 0.36% decline understates the volatility.

Stocks opened higher. The Dow added 208 points, or 0.4%, just after 9:30 a.m., the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.1%. SPY traded at $759.04 three minutes after the open, up 0.25%. The early bid came after the 8:30 a.m. producer price report showed October final demand prices rising 0.3%, below the 0.4% forecast.

The rally faded within the first hour. As chipmakers turned lower, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gave up their early gains and moved into negative territory in morning trading. By 11:00 a.m., SPY was down 0.86% and the Invesco QQQ Trust was down 1.95%. The Dow held near flat.

The selling peaked late in the morning. At 11:31 a.m., the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.45% at 24,998 and the S&P 500 was down 0.82% at 7,530. The Nasdaq 100 traded as much as 1.9% lower at midday, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.0%. SPY hit its session low of $747.88, down 1.2% from Thursday’s close.

The afternoon brought a recovery. Buyers stepped in as the 10-year Treasury yield stabilized near 5%, and the index clawed back much of its decline. By the close, the S&P 500 had cut its loss to 0.40%, the Nasdaq to 0.91% and the Dow had turned positive. SPY recovered $6.49 from its low to close at $754.37.

The recovery matters. A market that falls 1.2% intraday and closes down 0.36% shows buyers willing to step in during weakness. That pattern, a sharp morning selloff followed by an afternoon recovery, is consistent with rotation rather than broad liquidation. Investors sold technology and bought other sectors, rather than exiting equities.

The sector split confirms it. Six sectors finished higher and five lower in the regular session, with consumer staples well clear of the rest and technology trailing. The Dow’s green close, driven by defensive names like Coca-Cola and Walmart, shows where the money went.

For the forecast, Friday’s session supports the view that the S&P 500’s uptrend is intact. The intraday low at $747.88 now marks the first support level for SPY, and the close 0.9% above that low suggests buyers defended it.

Nvidia’s Leadership Crisis: The Week’s Defining Event

The largest single factor in this week’s market was the turmoil at Nvidia, the S&P 500’s largest company by market value.

Nvidia closed Friday at $162.85, down 2.01%, after a 4.34% drop on Thursday. The stock fell 12% for the week and closed 13% below its November 6 close of $186.64. Its market capitalization slipped below $4 trillion. Since November 6, Nvidia’s board opened an investigation, and chief executive Jensen Huang resigned on Thursday.

The weight matters for SPY. Nvidia is the largest holding in the S&P 500, accounting for a share of the index in the high single digits. A 12% weekly decline in Nvidia subtracts most of a percentage point from the index on its own. That the S&P 500 still gained 2.5% for the week shows how strong the rest of the market was.

The selloff spread across the chip sector. AMD fell 8.75% on Friday to $534.06, on volume of 47.85 million shares. Broadcom fell 4.76%, and Intel dropped 5%. Dell fell 7.18% and Cisco 6.24%. Together, the semiconductor and hardware names account for a large share of the S&P 500’s technology weighting, and their declines drove the index’s losses on Thursday and Friday.

Retail investors bought the dip. Nvidia drew record retail buying on Thursday as the stock went into free fall, a pattern that has historically supported prices after sharp declines in mega-cap technology names.

The key question for SPY is whether Nvidia’s crisis is company-specific or a sign of broader AI weakness. Nvidia reports quarterly earnings on Tuesday. A strong report, with demand for its AI accelerators intact, would reassure investors that the leadership change does not threaten the business. A weak report would raise doubts over the entire AI capital spending cycle, which has driven much of the S&P 500’s gain over the past three years.

The rest of the AI trade held up better than chips. Software and cloud companies, which buy rather than sell AI hardware, did not fall as sharply. That split suggests investors are pricing Nvidia’s specific risks rather than abandoning the AI theme.

For the forecast, Nvidia is the main swing factor. SPY’s path to $780 runs through a stabilization in Nvidia and the chip sector. A further 10% decline in Nvidia would subtract another percentage point from the index and push SPY toward $740.

The Rate Picture: A 5.16% 10-Year and a December Hike

The second force on the S&P 500 this week was the bond market, and it remains the main macro risk for SPY.

The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.16% on Friday, its highest since October. It had risen from 4.8% to 5% over the prior week before Thursday’s jump of 11.6 basis points to 5.105%. The 2-year yield climbed 17 basis points on Tuesday alone, its biggest one-day move since April 2025, after U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October against a 0.3% forecast.

The Federal Reserve is set to hike. Futures markets price a 91% probability of a quarter-point increase at the December 8 and 9 meeting, with a 9% chance of a half-point move. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that the Fed is not making progress on inflation.

Higher yields hit equity valuations. At a 5.16% 10-year yield, the earnings yield on the S&P 500 sits below the risk-free rate. That compresses the equity risk premium, the extra return investors demand for holding stocks over bonds, to its thinnest level in decades. Growth stocks, whose value depends on distant cash flows, are most sensitive to that compression, which helps explain the Nasdaq’s underperformance on Friday.

Friday’s data offered a reprieve. October producer prices rose 0.3%, below the 0.4% forecast, though the annual rate reached 6.5%, the highest since November 2022. Existing home sales for October came in at 3.85 million, above the 3.75 million forecast. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said core inflation remains under control and the economy is very strong.

The dollar added pressure. The dollar index reached a 19-month high of 103.30 on Friday. A strong dollar reduces the value of overseas earnings for U.S. multinationals, which generate a large share of S&P 500 revenue abroad.

Oil prices added a layer. Brent crude traded near $97 per barrel after attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure revived supply concerns, keeping energy-driven inflation in focus.

For the forecast, rates set the ceiling on SPY’s valuation. As long as the 10-year yield holds above 5%, the S&P 500 will struggle to expand its multiple. SPY’s path to $780 requires earnings growth to carry the index, or yields to retreat below 5% after the Fed’s December decision.

Sector Rotation: Staples Lead, Technology Trails

Friday’s sector performance showed money rotating within the S&P 500 rather than leaving it.

Consumer staples led the sector table on Friday by a wide margin. Coca-Cola rose 1.86% and Walmart 1.51%. Staples are classic defensive stocks, with steady demand regardless of economic conditions, and they tend to outperform when investors turn cautious on growth.

Technology trailed. The sector’s decline was driven by semiconductors and hardware, with AMD down 8.75%, Dell down 7.18%, Cisco down 6.24%, Broadcom down 4.76% and Nvidia down 2.01%. Technology is the largest sector in the S&P 500 by weight, so its declines dragged the index lower even as other sectors gained.

The split between the Dow and the Nasdaq captures the rotation. The Dow, weighted toward industrials, financials and consumer names, closed up 0.10%. The Nasdaq Composite, weighted toward technology, fell 0.91%. A day where the Dow closes green and the S&P 500 still loses 0.4% is a rotation signal.

Thursday showed a different pattern. On Thursday, nine of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors fell. Materials dropped 1.5%, industrials 0.9% and financials 0.7%. That broad decline came as Nvidia’s chief executive resigned, tensions with Iran rose and expectations of a Fed hike firmed. Friday’s narrower decline, with six sectors higher, showed improvement in breadth.

Payment and fintech stocks rallied on Friday. Shift4 Payments rose 7.9%, leading a rally in payment names alongside Toast and Global Payments. Modine Manufacturing jumped 28% on reports of a takeover approach from Samsung Electronics. Those moves show that buyers were active in cheaper, cash-generating names even as mega-cap technology fell.

New highs and lows tell the breadth story. On Thursday, the S&P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 55 new highs and 267 new lows. The S&P 500’s ratio of highs to lows shows a market where large-cap leadership remains intact outside technology.

For the forecast, the rotation is constructive for SPY. Money moving from chips to staples, industrials and financials stays inside the S&P 500. As long as the rotation continues rather than turning into broad selling, SPY’s uptrend holds.

Earnings: The Third-Quarter Season Winds Down

The third-quarter earnings season is in its final weeks, and the results support the S&P 500’s valuation even as rates rise.

Most S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter results. The season has shown earnings growth broadly in line with or ahead of expectations, with technology, communication services and financials leading. The AI buildout has continued to drive revenue for hyperscale cloud providers and their suppliers.

Individual reports this week showed the pattern. Cisco fell 6.24% on Friday as enterprise technology stocks weakened. Shift4 Payments beat earnings estimates but cut guidance for the third time this year. Modine Manufacturing reported 95% growth in data center sales but missed on margins. The common thread is strong demand from AI and data center buildouts alongside margin pressure from tariffs, materials costs and supply chain constraints.

Nvidia’s report on Tuesday is the season’s final major event. As the S&P 500’s largest company, Nvidia’s results and guidance will shape expectations for AI spending into 2027. The report comes days after Huang’s resignation, which adds uncertainty over how the company will communicate its outlook.

Retailers report over the next two weeks. Walmart, Target and Home Depot will show how the U.S. consumer is holding up under higher rates and energy prices. Walmart’s 1.51% gain on Friday ahead of its report suggests investors expect resilience.

Forward earnings estimates drive the index’s valuation. With the 10-year yield at 5.16%, the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings multiple has limited room to expand. Earnings growth must do the work. Consensus estimates for 2027 point to continued growth, supported by AI spending, a strong economy and corporate buybacks.

Buybacks provide steady demand. S&P 500 companies continue to repurchase shares at a high pace, and the buyback window reopens as companies exit their post-earnings quiet periods. That demand supports SPY during periods of selling.

For the forecast, earnings remain the foundation under SPY. A strong Nvidia report and solid retail results would support the move toward $780. A weak Nvidia report would shift attention to the risk that AI spending is peaking.

SPY’s Structure: The World’s Largest ETF and What It Holds

SPY’s mechanics matter for understanding how it responds to market moves.

SPY tracks the S&P 500 index, holding the 500-plus large-cap U.S. companies in proportion to their market capitalization. It is the largest and most traded exchange-traded fund in the world, with a market value of $680.90 billion. On a typical day, SPY trades 42.8 million shares on a three-month average basis.

Cap weighting concentrates the fund. The largest technology companies, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Broadcom, account for a third or more of SPY’s assets. That concentration means SPY’s performance depends heavily on a handful of names. When those names fall, as Nvidia and Broadcom did this week, SPY falls even if most of its holdings rise.

The concentration showed this week. Nvidia’s 12% weekly decline and Broadcom’s drop would normally drag SPY sharply lower. Instead, SPY gained 2.5%, because the other 490-plus holdings rose enough to offset the losses at the top. That breadth is a strong signal for the index’s uptrend, showing that leadership is broadening beyond mega-cap technology.

SPY tracks the index at a fixed ratio. At the index close of 7,561.67, SPY’s $754.37 close implies a ratio of 0.09976. That means each 100-point move in the S&P 500 translates to a $9.98 move in SPY. The upside target of $780 corresponds to an S&P 500 level of 7,819. SPY’s record of $781.62 corresponds to 7,835.

Options activity amplifies moves. SPY carries the most actively traded options market in the world, with daily and weekly expirations. Dealers hedging those options buy and sell SPY shares as prices move, which can accelerate rallies and selloffs around key strike levels. The $750 and $760 strikes, which bracketed Friday’s trading, are focal points for option positioning.

Competing funds track the same index. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF charge lower fees than SPY and have drawn large inflows from long-term investors. SPY remains the preferred vehicle for traders and institutions because of its liquidity.

For the forecast, SPY’s cap-weighted structure makes it sensitive to Nvidia and the largest technology names. A recovery in those names would lift SPY quickly. Continued weakness would cap the fund even if the rest of the market rises.

Technical Picture: $747.88 Support, $760 Resistance and the $780 Target

The SPY chart shows a fund pulling back from a strong week, with clear levels on both sides.

The support ladder starts at $747.88, Friday’s intraday low. Buyers defended that level on Friday, and the close 0.9% above it suggests demand. Below that, $740 marks a round-number level and the midpoint of the week’s range. The third level is $736, the prior Friday’s close, where SPY began the week’s 2.5% advance. A break below $736 would erase the week’s gains and signal that the rally has failed.

Resistance stacks up above. The first level is $757.12, Thursday’s close. The second is $760.10, Friday’s intraday high and the top of the opening rally. A daily close above $760 would signal that the chip selloff has been absorbed. The upside target sits at $780, a level that corresponds to 7,819 on the S&P 500 and sits $1.62 below SPY’s record high of $781.62. A close above $781.62 would mark a new all-time high.

The upside target is defined. A move from $754.37 to $780 is a gain of $25.63, or 3.4%. The S&P 500 gained 2.5% this week alone, so a 3.4% move over several weeks is within the index’s normal range.

The longer trend is intact. SPY trades 19.9% above its 52-week low of $629.28 and 3.5% below its record. A 3.5% pullback from a record is a routine correction for the S&P 500, which experiences declines of 3% to 5% several times in a typical year.

Volatility rose but remains contained. Volatility ETFs rose 2.46% on Friday as the chip selloff unfolded, a modest move for a session in which SPY fell 1.2% at its low. A spike in volatility would signal broader fear. The modest rise on Friday suggests traders hedged against further declines without panicking.

The weekly structure is constructive. SPY gained 2.5% this week despite Nvidia’s 12% decline and a 5.16% 10-year yield. A market that rises in the face of negative news shows underlying strength.

The technical verdict: bullish above $747.88, neutral between $736 and $747.88, bearish below $736. The upside target is $780 on a daily close above $760.10. A break below $736 would open a deeper move toward $720.

Breadth and Leadership: Beyond Mega-Cap Tech

The internal strength of the S&P 500 matters as much as its headline level, and this week’s data shows broadening participation.

The S&P 500 gained 2.5% for the week while its largest company fell 12%. That combination is only possible if most other stocks rose. The equal-weighted S&P 500, which gives each company the same weight regardless of size, likely outperformed the cap-weighted index this week, a sign that the average stock is doing better than the mega-caps.

The new highs data confirms it. On Thursday, the S&P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs against two new lows. That ratio of 9 to 1 shows that more stocks are breaking out than breaking down. The Nasdaq Composite showed the opposite, with 55 new highs against 267 new lows, reflecting weakness in smaller technology and growth names.

Leadership is rotating. Consumer staples, industrials and financials have taken turns leading on different days this week. On Friday, staples led. Payment stocks and select industrials rallied. That rotation keeps the index supported even as technology weakens.

The Dow’s performance tells the same story. The Dow gained 2.1% for the week and closed green on Friday. The Dow is price-weighted and less exposed to Nvidia than the S&P 500, so its strength reflects gains in industrials, financials and consumer names.

Small caps lagged. The Russell 2000 fell 0.32% on Friday and is more sensitive to rising rates than large caps, because small companies rely more on floating-rate debt. Higher Treasury yields weigh on small caps, which helps explain their underperformance.

The risk is that breadth narrows again. If the chip selloff spreads to software and cloud companies, or if rising yields hit financials and industrials, the rotation could turn into broad selling. The key signal would be a day when the Dow, the equal-weighted S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all fall together.

For the forecast, breadth supports SPY. A market where most stocks rise while a few mega-caps fall is stronger than one where a few mega-caps carry the index. If Nvidia stabilizes, the combination of broad participation and a recovery at the top would push SPY toward $780.

Catalysts: Nvidia on Tuesday, Retail Earnings and the Fed

SPY faces a cluster of events over the next four weeks that will decide whether it reaches its record or pulls back further.

Nvidia’s earnings on Tuesday are the first and largest test. As the S&P 500’s largest company, Nvidia’s results and guidance will move the index directly through its weight and indirectly through its influence on AI-related stocks. A strong report would lift chips and could push SPY above $760. A weak report would extend the chip selloff and push SPY toward $740.

Retail earnings follow. Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s report over the next two weeks, showing how consumers are holding up under higher rates and energy costs. Strong results would support consumer discretionary and staples stocks.

U.S. economic data is the third. Retail sales, jobless claims and housing data will shape the Fed’s December decision. Softer data would lower the odds of a half-point hike and ease pressure on yields.

The Fed’s December 8 and 9 meeting is the fourth. A quarter-point hike is 91% priced. If the Fed delivers that and signals the cycle is near its end, yields could peak and equity valuations could expand. A half-point hike or hawkish guidance would push yields higher and weigh on SPY.

Treasury yields are the fifth. A 10-year yield above 5.2% would pressure equity valuations. A retreat below 5% would ease that pressure.

Geopolitics is the sixth. Tensions with Iran and attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have kept oil prices elevated. A spike in oil would raise inflation fears and pressure stocks.

Year-end seasonality is the seventh. November and December have historically been strong months for the S&P 500, supported by holiday spending, buybacks and portfolio positioning. That seasonal tailwind favors SPY into year-end.

The order of events matters. Nvidia reports before the retail earnings and the Fed, so its results will set the tone for the rest of the month. A clean report would let investors focus on consumer data and the Fed’s guidance; a miss would put every later event in the shadow of AI spending doubts.

For the forecast, the catalysts tilt positive after Tuesday. Nvidia’s report is the main risk. If it passes without a major disappointment, retail earnings, buybacks and year-end seasonality support a move toward $780.

Bull Case: The Path to $780

The upside case for SPY rests on five drivers, and several are already in place.

The first is breadth. The S&P 500 gained 2.5% for the week despite Nvidia’s 12% decline. The index posted 18 new highs against two new lows on Thursday. Broad participation supports the uptrend.

The second is rotation. Money moving from chips to staples, industrials and financials stays inside the S&P 500. As long as the rotation continues, SPY holds up.

The third is an Nvidia stabilization. Nvidia has fallen 13% since November 6. A strong earnings report on Tuesday would reassure investors that the leadership change does not threaten the business, and a rebound in the S&P 500’s largest company would lift SPY directly.

The fourth is seasonality. November and December have historically been strong months for the S&P 500, supported by buybacks and holiday spending.

The fifth is a Fed peak. If the Fed delivers a quarter-point hike in December and signals the cycle is near its end, Treasury yields could retreat from 5.16%, easing pressure on equity valuations.

The price path is defined. The first target is $757.12, Thursday’s close. The second is $760.10, Friday’s high. The primary upside target is $780, a gain of $25.63, or 3.4%, from $754.37, corresponding to 7,819 on the S&P 500.

Beyond $780, the record high at $781.62 is the next level. A close above that would mark a new all-time high and open the path toward $800, corresponding to 8,019 on the S&P 500.

The bull case does not require a rally in technology. It requires Nvidia to stabilize and the rotation into other sectors to continue. Given the week’s 2.5% gain despite the chip selloff, that combination could carry SPY to $780 within weeks.

The macro calendar could add a sixth driver. Friday’s producer price report already came in below forecast, with October final demand prices up 0.3% against 0.4%. A second soft print in the coming retail sales or jobless claims data would lower the odds of a half-point Fed hike and pull the 10-year yield back toward 5%. Each 10-basis-point drop in the 10-year yield has historically supported a modest expansion in the S&P 500’s earnings multiple, and a retreat from 5.16% to 5% would give SPY room to rally without needing faster earnings growth. Buyback activity adds steady demand as companies exit their post-earnings quiet periods.

Bear Case: Nvidia Disappoints and $736 Breaks

The downside case depends on the chip selloff spreading and rates rising further.

The first risk is a weak Nvidia report. A disappointment on Tuesday would extend the chip selloff and raise doubts over the AI spending cycle. Given Nvidia’s weight in the index, a 10% further decline would subtract most of a percentage point from the S&P 500.

The second risk is a hawkish Fed. A half-point hike in December or guidance that more hikes are coming would push yields higher and compress equity valuations.

The third risk is yields. A 10-year Treasury yield above 5.2% would push the equity risk premium further negative and weigh on growth stocks.

The fourth risk is narrowing breadth. If the selling spreads from chips to software, financials and industrials, the rotation would turn into broad liquidation.

The fifth risk is oil. Attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and tensions with Iran could push oil prices higher, raising inflation fears.

The sixth risk is concentration. SPY’s heavy weighting in mega-cap technology means a sustained decline in those names would drag the fund lower even if most holdings rise.

The price path is clear. A daily close below $747.88 triggers the bearish setup. The first target is $740. The second is $736, the prior Friday’s close. The third is $720, a level that would mark a 7.9% decline from the record. A move from $754.37 to $720 is a decline of $34.37, or 4.6%.

The bear case would accelerate if Nvidia falls more than 10% after earnings, if the 10-year yield breaks above 5.25%, or if the Fed signals a half-point hike. Any two of those together would put $720 in play.

The bear case also carries a valuation dimension. With the 10-year Treasury at 5.16%, the S&P 500’s earnings yield sits below the risk-free rate, a configuration that leaves little cushion if earnings estimates fall. A weak Nvidia report could trigger downward revisions to 2027 estimates for the entire AI supply chain, and the index would then face both lower earnings and a higher discount rate. The Russell 2000’s 0.32% decline on Friday and the Nasdaq’s 267 new lows on Thursday show that weakness outside the large-cap leaders is already building. If that weakness spreads into the S&P 500’s industrials and financials, the rotation that carried the index this week would stop working.

Verdict: Bullish Above $747.88, Upside Target $780 on an Nvidia Stabilization

SPY closes the week at $754.37, down 0.36% on Friday but up 2.5% for the week. The S&P 500 closed at 7,561.67, down 0.40% on the day and up 184.81 points for the week. The fund sits 3.5% below its record high of $781.62 and 19.9% above its 52-week low.

The week’s resilience is the main signal. Nvidia fell 12% and its chief executive resigned. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.16%. A December Fed hike is 91% priced. AMD fell 8.75% on Friday alone. Yet the S&P 500 gained 2.5%, the Dow rose 2.1% and the Nasdaq posted its best week since August.

The rotation is constructive. Money moved from chips into consumer staples, industrials and financials. The S&P 500 posted 18 new highs against two new lows on Thursday. Friday’s intraday low of $747.88 drew buyers, and the close 0.9% above that level showed demand.

The risks are concentrated. Nvidia’s earnings on Tuesday are the main event. A strong report would support a move to $780. A weak one would extend the chip selloff and push SPY toward $736. Yields above 5% cap valuation expansion.

The levels are defined. On the upside, $757.12 is Thursday’s close, $760.10 Friday’s high, $780 the upside target and $781.62 the record. On the downside, $747.88 is Friday’s low, $740 a round-number support, $736 the prior Friday’s close and $720 the deeper target.

The verdict for investors: SPY is bullish above $747.88 and targets $780 on a daily close above $760.10. The key catalyst is Nvidia’s report on Tuesday. If it passes without a major disappointment, retail earnings, buybacks and year-end seasonality support a move to $780 and a test of the record at $781.62. A daily close below $736 would erase the week’s gains and open a move toward $720. The S&P 500 absorbed a shock to its largest company and still gained 2.5% this week, a sign that the broader uptrend has the strength to carry SPY toward its highs.

The risk-reward from $754.37 favors the upside. The move to $780 is $25.63, or 3.4%, while the move to $736 is $18.37, or 2.4%. That ratio improves if SPY holds Friday’s $747.88 low through Nvidia’s report. Investors who wait for a close above $760.10 give up part of the move but gain confirmation that the chip selloff has been absorbed. Long-term holders can treat a pullback toward $740 as a routine correction inside an uptrend that has carried SPY 19.9% above its 52-week low.

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