XRPI Hits a $5.39 Low and XRPR Holds $8.33 as XRP Tests $1, Targets $6.57 and $10.04 in Sight

The two oldest U.S. XRP exchange-traded products closed Friday, November 13, at fresh lows for the cycle. The Volatility Shares XRP ETF (NASDAQ: XRPI) settled at $5.46, down $0.07 or 1.27%, after trading between $5.39 and $5.52 on the session. The $5.39 low set a new 52-week low for the fund. XRPI slipped further to $5.38 after the close, down another 1.48%. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF (Cboe BZX: XRPR) closed at $8.33, down $0.099 or 1.17%, after opening at $8.40 and trading as low as $8.27. XRPR’s 52-week low sits at $8.10.

Both funds are deep in drawdown. XRPI’s 52-week high sits at $13.87, which leaves the fund 60.6% below its peak. XRPR’s 52-week high sits at $20.75, which leaves it 59.9% lower. XRPI has delivered a total return of negative 53.71% over the past year, including its monthly distributions.

The November decline has been relentless. XRPI closed at $6.65 on November 2, rose to $6.95 on November 4, then fell to $6.57 on November 5, $6.25 on November 6, $5.83 on November 9, $5.53 on Thursday and $5.46 on Friday. That leaves XRPI down 12.6% on the week and 17.9% month to date. XRPR followed the same path: $10.16 on November 2, a peak of $10.60 on November 4, then $10.04, $9.57, $8.90, $8.43 and $8.33. XRPR is down 13.0% on the week and 18.0% month to date.

The driver is the underlying token. XRP traded at $1.03 late Friday after a ninth consecutive day of losses that took it below $1.00 for the first time since August, touching $0.9975 on Binance before buyers pulled it back. XRP is down 13% on the week, 23% on the month and 72% from its all-time high of $3.65. Both ETFs track that move, with XRPR holding XRP directly and XRPI holding CME XRP futures.

The thesis for this forecast is that both funds are pricing XRP’s test of $1.00, and their recovery depends on that floor holding. Spot XRP ETF holders have not capitulated: the six spot funds still hold 1.17 billion XRP and $1.16 billion in assets, with $1.79 billion of cumulative net inflows. If XRP holds $1.00 and recovers toward its 50-day exponential moving average at $1.26, XRPI has a path back to $6.57, its November 5 close and a 20.3% gain, and XRPR has a path back to $10.04, its November 5 close and a 20.5% gain. Those are the upside targets for this forecast.

How the Two Funds Work: Spot Versus Futures

XRPI and XRPR both give investors exposure to XRP, but they get there in different ways, and the difference matters for how each fund behaves.

XRPR, launched on September 18, 2025, by REX Shares and Osprey Funds, was the first U.S. fund to offer direct XRP exposure. It holds XRP itself and a European exchange-traded product backed by physical XRP. As of November 5, the fund held 59.49% of its assets in XRP directly, 19.89 million tokens worth $24.63 million, and 40.49% in CoinShares Physical XRP, worth $16.76 million. Its net asset value stood at $10.16 that day, against a closing price of $10.05, a discount of 1.1%. The fund lists on Cboe BZX and charges a 0.75% expense ratio.

XRPI, launched on May 22, 2025, by Volatility Shares, takes a different route. It holds CME XRP futures contracts rather than XRP itself. As of early November, 66.16% of the fund’s exposure sat in the November 2026 CME XRP futures contract, with the balance in money market deposits and cash. The fund lists on Nasdaq and pays a monthly distribution, most recently $0.19 per share, with an ex-dividend date of October 21. Its expense ratio stands at 0.94%.

The structures create different tracking behavior. XRPR moves with the spot price of XRP, minus fees and any gap between its share price and net asset value. XRPI moves with the futures price, which can trade above or below spot depending on market conditions. When futures trade at a premium, XRPI pays a roll cost each month as it sells expiring contracts and buys the next month. That cost has contributed to XRPI’s long-run underperformance against spot XRP.

The distributions add a wrinkle. XRPI’s monthly payouts come from the interest earned on cash collateral backing the futures position. At current Treasury bill yields above 4%, that income is meaningful, and it partly offsets the roll cost. XRPR does not pay a regular distribution.

The size difference is also clear. XRPI held $80.02 million in assets as of Thursday, down from $96.40 million on November 3. XRPR held $35.21 million. Both are small next to the largest spot XRP funds: the Bitwise XRP ETF holds $431.52 million, Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ $329.24 million and Canary’s XRPC $257.33 million.

For the forecast, the structural difference means XRPR offers cleaner exposure to a spot XRP recovery, while XRPI adds futures roll dynamics and a monthly income stream. In a sharp rally, XRPR would likely track XRP more closely. In a slow grind, XRPI’s distributions would partly cushion holders.

XRP at $1.03: The Floor Both Funds Depend On

Both ETFs are a derivative of one price, and that price is testing its most important level of the year.

XRP traded at $1.03 late Friday after a session that took the token below $1.00 for the first time since August. The 24-hour range ran from $0.9998 to $1.055, and on Binance the low printed at $0.9975 before buyers pulled the price back to $1.0303 within hours. At $1.03, XRP carries a market capitalization of $65.24 billion on 63.52 billion tokens in circulation.

The decline has been steady. Friday marked XRP’s ninth consecutive day of losses. The token traded at $1.18 a week ago, $1.33 a month ago and $2.33 a year ago. Against its all-time high of $3.65, set on July 17, 2025, XRP sits 72% lower.

The funds have tracked that move closely. XRPR’s 13.0% weekly decline matches XRP’s 13% weekly drop. XRPI’s 12.6% decline is slightly smaller, reflecting the futures basis and timing differences between the fund’s 4:00 p.m. close and XRP’s round-the-clock trading.

The technical picture for XRP is bearish. The token trades below its 50-day exponential moving average at $1.26, its 100-day EMA at $1.29 and its 200-day EMA at $1.34. The SuperTrend indicator at $1.19 continues to track overhead. XRP has broken a downward trendline that had defined the decline from the October highs.

The $1.00 level carries outsized weight. It is the psychological floor XRP held through the spring and summer of 2026, and Friday’s break and fast recovery showed buyers still defend it. A daily close below $0.99, the lower boundary of a descending channel, would open a deeper move toward $0.70.

The translation to the funds is direct. If XRP holds $1.00 and rallies 22% to the 50-day EMA at $1.26, XRPR would gain a similar percentage and trade near $10.15, and XRPI would trade near $6.65 after accounting for the futures basis. A break below $0.99 toward $0.90 would push XRPR toward $7.30 and XRPI toward $4.80.

For the forecast, XRP’s $1.00 floor is the single most important level for both ETFs. The upside targets of $10.04 for XRPR and $6.57 for XRPI assume the floor holds and XRP recovers toward $1.25. A break below $0.99 would invalidate both targets.

The Macro Squeeze: Fed Hikes, a 103 Dollar and $14.2 Billion of Stablecoin Outflows

XRP’s slide this month, and with it the decline in both funds, cannot be separated from the macro backdrop.

The Federal Reserve is the main driver. Futures markets price a 91% probability of a quarter-point hike at the December 8 and 9 meeting and a 9% chance of a half-point move. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that the Fed is not making progress on inflation. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, and producer prices are running at 6.5% year over year, the highest since November 2022.

Higher rates hit crypto from two directions. They raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding token, and they tighten the global liquidity that funds speculative positions. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.16% on Friday, and institutional investors can earn more than 5% in government debt with no price risk.

The dollar amplified the pressure. The dollar index reached 103.30 on Friday, its highest in 19 months. A strong dollar drains liquidity from assets priced in dollars, including XRP.

Liquidity inside crypto shrank. Stablecoin balances fell by $14.2 billion, a sign that capital is leaving the sector rather than rotating between tokens. Bitcoin fell 6.6% in 24 hours and traded below $69,000. Ethereum lost $2,000. Solana tested $77.85.

The ETF channel reflected the squeeze. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $284 million of outflows on November 12, their sixth straight day of withdrawals. Spot XRP ETFs lost $10.42 million on November 9 and $7.62 million on November 10 before flows went flat on November 11 and 12.

Equity markets added to the risk-off tone on Thursday and Friday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.91% on Friday after Nvidia’s chief executive resigned, and AMD dropped 8.75%. The S&P 500 still gained 2.5% for the week, a sign that equity investors rotated rather than fled, but crypto did not benefit from that rotation.

Friday’s producer price report offered a crack. The monthly rise of 0.3% came in below the 0.4% forecast. A second soft data point would lower the odds of a half-point hike and ease pressure on XRP.

For the forecast, the macro picture sets the ceiling for both funds. XRPR’s path to $10.04 and XRPI’s path to $6.57 run through a stabilizing dollar, a pause in the rise of Treasury yields and a Bitcoin rebound above $70,000.

The XRP ETF Complex: $1.16 Billion Held, $1.79 Billion In

XRPI and XRPR sit inside a larger complex of XRP products, and the complex’s flows show where institutional demand stands.

The six U.S. spot XRP ETFs held 1.17 billion XRP as of the November 11 close, with $1.24 billion in combined net assets at that point, or 1.19 billion XRP including the XRP held by Bitwise’s multi-asset fund. By the latest reading, total net assets stood at $1.16 billion, equal to 1.77% of XRP’s market capitalization. Cumulative net inflows since launch total $1.79 billion.

The gap between those numbers reflects price decline. Investors put in $1.79 billion, and the XRP they bought is now worth $1.16 billion. The funds’ net assets peaked near $1.70 billion on October 6, before the latest leg of the selloff.

The fund-level data shows the hierarchy. The Bitwise XRP ETF leads with $431.52 million in assets. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ holds $329.24 million, Canary’s XRPC $257.33 million and Grayscale’s GXRP $61.80 million. Among futures and leveraged products, XRPI holds $80.02 million, the Teucrium 2x Long Daily XRP ETF $88.82 million, the Volatility Shares 2x XRP ETF $75.71 million and the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF $39.37 million. XRPR holds $35.21 million.

Flows turned negative this month but stayed modest. The spot funds recorded $10.42 million of net outflows on November 9, led by $9.40 million from the Bitwise fund and $811,400 from XRPC. Another $7.62 million left on November 10. No net flows occurred on November 11 or 12. In the week of November 2 to 6, outflows totaled just $529,500.

Those numbers are small against the base. Outflows of $18 million over two sessions equal 1.6% of current net assets and 1.0% of cumulative inflows. ETF holders have not rushed for the exits during a 23% monthly decline in XRP.

The leveraged products show a different signal. The Teucrium 2x fund recently took in $1.44 million, a sign that some traders are using leverage to bet on a rebound from $1.00.

Friday also marked a milestone. Canary’s XRPC launched on November 13, 2025, as the first U.S.-listed spot XRP ETF under the 1933 Act structure. One year later, the complex has grown to more than a dozen products.

For the forecast, the complex’s resilience supports both funds. Spot holders sitting through a 72% drawdown in XRP show conviction. A return to inflows across the complex would lift XRP and, with it, XRPR and XRPI.

XRPI: Futures Exposure, Monthly Income and a New Low

XRPI’s specific dynamics matter for investors weighing it against spot alternatives.

XRPI closed at $5.46 on Friday after setting a new 52-week low of $5.39 during the session. The fund opened at $5.48 and traded as high as $5.52 before sliding into the close. After hours, it fell to $5.38. Its 52-week high sits at $13.87. Earlier this year, the fund traded at $15.24 at its peak, by one data series.

The November tape shows accelerating selling. XRPI closed at $6.65 on November 2, $6.83 on November 3 and $6.95 on November 4, the month’s high. Volume rose sharply as the decline began: 503,029 shares on November 5 and 1,053,434 shares on November 9, more than ten times the 72,997 shares traded on November 3. That spike in volume during the breakdown signals forced or conviction selling.

The futures structure shapes returns. XRPI held 66.16% of its exposure in the November 2026 CME XRP futures contract in early November, so the fund will roll into the December contract before November expiry. The roll cost depends on the spread between the two contracts. In a falling market, futures can trade at a smaller premium or even a discount to spot, which reduces or eliminates the roll cost.

The monthly distributions add income. XRPI paid $0.19 per share with an October 21 ex-dividend date, equal to a 2.72% yield on the price at the time. The payouts come from interest on cash collateral. At current Treasury bill yields, that income helps offset part of the fund’s 0.94% expense ratio and any roll costs.

Assets have fallen with the price. XRPI held $96.40 million on November 3 and $80.02 million on Thursday, a 17% decline that tracks the price drop more than outflows. Shares outstanding stood at 14.09 million in early November.

The long-run record shows the cost of the structure. Since its May 2025 inception, XRPI has delivered an average annual return of negative 42.96%, and its one-year total return stands at negative 53.71%. Part of that underperformance reflects XRP’s decline, and part reflects futures roll costs during periods of contango.

For the forecast, XRPI’s upside target is $6.57, the November 5 close and a 20.3% gain from $5.46. That move requires XRP to rally toward $1.25. The new 52-week low at $5.39 is the line that, if broken on a closing basis, would open a move toward $4.80.

XRPR: Spot Exposure, a Narrow Spread and the $8.10 Floor

XRPR’s spot structure makes it a cleaner proxy for XRP, with its own trading characteristics.

XRPR closed at $8.33 on Friday after opening at $8.40, which was also the session high, and trading as low as $8.27. The fund’s 52-week low sits at $8.10, set earlier in the cycle, which leaves Friday’s close 2.8% above that floor. Its 52-week high sits at $20.75. Over the past year, XRPR’s adjusted close has ranged from $8.16 to $21.18 by another data series.

The November tape mirrors XRP. XRPR closed at $10.16 on November 2, $10.40 on November 3 and $10.60 on November 4, the month’s high. It then fell to $10.04 on November 5, $9.57 on November 6, $8.90 on November 9, $8.43 on Thursday and $8.33 on Friday. Volume stayed light: 26,318 shares on November 9 and 20,421 shares on November 6.

The holdings explain the tracking. As of November 5, XRPR held 19.89 million XRP directly, worth $24.63 million, and $16.76 million in CoinShares Physical XRP. That split gives the fund direct exposure to the token, with a portion held through a European product that is itself backed by physical XRP.

The discount to net asset value is a factor. On November 5, XRPR’s net asset value was $10.16 against a closing price of $10.05, a 1.1% discount. The fund’s 30-day median bid-ask spread stands at 1.02%. Investors buying or selling XRPR pay that spread on each trade, which adds to the cost of the fund’s 0.75% expense ratio.

The fund’s size limits liquidity. At $35.21 million in assets, XRPR is one of the smaller products in the XRP complex. Light volume and a wide spread mean the fund can trade at a premium or discount to its holdings during fast moves.

XRPR’s structure gives it a specific advantage. Because it holds XRP directly, it avoids the futures roll costs that weigh on XRPI. In a sharp rally, XRPR would capture the full move in spot XRP, minus fees.

For the forecast, XRPR’s upside target is $10.04, the November 5 close and a 20.5% gain from $8.33. That move requires XRP to recover toward $1.25. The 52-week low at $8.10 is the critical support; a close below it would open a move toward $7.30.

Technical Picture: Support at $5.39 and $8.10, Targets at $6.57 and $10.04

Both funds sit just above their 52-week lows after a sustained decline, with clear levels on each chart.

For XRPI, the support ladder starts at $5.39, Friday’s new 52-week low. The after-hours print of $5.38 already tested that level. A daily close below $5.39 would extend the breakdown toward $5.00, a round-number level, and then $4.80, the level implied by XRP at $0.90. Resistance stacks up above. The first level is $5.52, Friday’s high. The second is $5.53, Thursday’s close. The third is $5.83, the November 9 close where the volume spike began. The fourth is $6.25, the November 6 close. The upside target sits at $6.57, the November 5 close. Above that, $6.95 marks the November 4 high.

For XRPR, the support ladder starts at $8.27, Friday’s low, and $8.10, the 52-week low. A daily close below $8.10 would open a move toward $7.30, the level implied by XRP at $0.90. Resistance stacks up above. The first level is $8.40, Friday’s open and high. The second is $8.43, Thursday’s close. The third is $8.90, the November 9 close. The fourth is $9.57, the November 6 close. The upside target sits at $10.04, the November 5 close. Above that, $10.60 marks the November 4 high.

The targets are defined. XRPI’s move from $5.46 to $6.57 is a gain of $1.11, or 20.3%. XRPR’s move from $8.33 to $10.04 is a gain of $1.71, or 20.5%. Both require XRP to rally 20% to 22%, from $1.03 toward $1.25.

Momentum is stretched. XRP’s nine-day losing streak and the funds’ near-vertical November declines leave all three deeply oversold on short-term measures. Oversold readings do not guarantee a bounce, but they raise the odds of a relief rally once selling pressure eases.

Volume tells the story of the breakdown. XRPI’s 1.05 million shares on November 9 was more than ten times its early-November pace, a sign of capitulation selling in the futures fund. XRPR’s volume stayed light, which suggests its holders are more patient.

The technical verdict for XRPI: bearish below $5.83, neutral between $5.83 and $6.25, constructive above $6.25, with $6.57 as the upside target and $5.39 as the breakdown line. For XRPR: bearish below $8.90, neutral between $8.90 and $9.57, constructive above $9.57, with $10.04 as the upside target and $8.10 as the breakdown line.

Ripple, Regulation and the Long-Term Case

The fundamental case for XRP, and by extension both funds, has not changed during the selloff.

The legal overhang that shaped XRP’s price for years is gone. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s case against Ripple ended with the court’s 2023 ruling that XRP sales on public exchanges did not constitute investment contracts, followed by resolution of the remaining issues. That clarity opened the path to the spot ETFs that launched in late 2025.

Ripple continues to expand its business. Ripple Prime, the institutional brokerage built on the $1.25 billion acquisition of Hidden Road, serves more than 300 institutions worldwide and has expanded into leveraged ETF financing. Founder Marc Asch will leave at the end of the year, and Noel Kimmel will assume leadership of the unit.

The network continues to develop. XRP Ledger version 3.5.0 is scheduled for December 3, 2026, with upgrades designed to improve network performance. November 2026 also marks 15 years since the first code for the ledger was written in 2011.

Larger holders keep accumulating. Wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP have grown to 343,500, an increase of 16,815, or 5.15%, over the past nine months. That growth has continued through November even as the price fell.

Institutional exposure is spreading. Rakuten Group disclosed a position in a U.S.-listed spot XRP ETF in its latest filing with the SEC, a sign that large Asian corporates are using U.S. products to gain exposure.

Supply is predictable. Ripple releases up to 1 billion XRP from escrow on the first of each month and returns most of it to new escrow contracts. The December 1 release will show how much net supply enters the market.

The gap between fundamentals and price is not new. Ripple’s business milestones and the ETF launches have not prevented XRP from falling 72% from its high. Token prices have followed broader crypto cycles and macro liquidity more closely than network developments.

For the forecast, the long-term case supports both funds over a multi-year horizon. In the near term, macro conditions and Bitcoin set the direction. XRPR and XRPI will recover when XRP does, and XRP will recover when the dollar and yields stop rising.

Catalysts: Nvidia, the Fed and the December 3 Ledger Upgrade

Both funds face a cluster of events over the next four weeks that could break the downtrend or extend it.

Nvidia’s earnings on Tuesday are the first test. Technology stocks and crypto have traded together through 2026. Strong results would ease fears over AI spending and support risk appetite. A miss would extend the risk-off move and push XRP back toward $1.00.

Bitcoin’s response to the $68,000 to $69,000 zone is the second. Bitcoin’s break below $70,000 drove much of this week’s selling across crypto. A Bitcoin rebound above $70,000 would ease pressure on XRP and both funds.

XRP ETF flows are the third. Spot XRP funds recorded no net flows on November 11 and 12 after two sessions of outflows. A return to inflows would signal that institutional buyers see value near $1.00.

Ripple’s escrow release on December 1 is the fourth. A smaller net release would support the price; a larger one would add selling pressure.

The XRP Ledger’s version 3.5.0 upgrade on December 3 is the fifth. Network upgrades rarely move prices on their own but can support sentiment during a recovery.

The Fed’s December 8 and 9 meeting is the sixth. A quarter-point hike is 91% priced. If the Fed signals the cycle is near its end, the dollar and yields could peak, a setup that historically supports crypto.

XRPI’s futures roll is the seventh. The fund will roll from the November CME XRP contract into December before expiry. The spread between those contracts will determine the roll cost or benefit.

XRPR’s discount to net asset value is the eighth. The fund closed at a 1.1% discount to its holdings on November 5. A widening discount during the selloff would signal that sellers are paying up to exit, while a move back to a premium would show buyers returning ahead of the underlying token.

For the forecast, the catalysts tilt toward volatility. The first week carries the most downside risk, with Nvidia and Bitcoin setting the tone. The ledger upgrade and the Fed meeting offer upside catalysts in early December. The order matters: a clean Nvidia report and a Bitcoin hold above $68,000 next week would let the December events work in the funds’ favor.

Bull Case: XRPI to $6.57, XRPR to $10.04

The upside case for both funds rests on five drivers.

The first is XRP’s $1.00 floor. XRP broke below $1.00 on Friday but recovered within hours. The speed of the rebound suggests spot buyers and larger holders are waiting below the round number. A successful defense would set up a relief rally.

The second is exhaustion. XRP has fallen nine days in a row, and both funds have dropped 13% in a week. XRPI’s volume spike on November 9 looked like capitulation. Selling streaks driven by leverage and macro tend to end with exactly this kind of flush.

The third is ETF stability. The spot XRP funds hold 1.17 billion XRP and $1.16 billion in assets. Outflows of $18 million over two sessions are small, and flows went flat on November 11 and 12. If flows turn positive, demand could absorb supply quickly.

The fourth is whale accumulation. Wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP grew to 343,500 and kept growing through November.

The fifth is a macro turn. If the Fed signals the end of its hiking cycle in December, the dollar and yields could peak, and crypto would likely rebound.

The price path for XRPI is defined. The first target is $5.53, Thursday’s close. The second is $5.83, the November 9 close. The third is $6.25, the November 6 close. The upside target is $6.57, a 20.3% gain.

The price path for XRPR is defined. The first target is $8.43, Thursday’s close. The second is $8.90, the November 9 close. The third is $9.57, the November 6 close. The upside target is $10.04, a 20.5% gain.

Beyond the targets, XRPI’s November 4 high at $6.95 and XRPR’s at $10.60 mark the next levels. Reaching them would require XRP to recover toward $1.30, near its 100-day EMA.

The bull case does not require XRP-specific news. It requires the crypto market to stop falling and XRP’s $1.00 floor to hold.

The two funds would respond differently to a rally. XRPR, holding XRP directly, would track the token’s move closely, though its 1.02% median spread and light volume could leave it lagging in the first hours of a sharp move. XRPI would follow the CME futures price, which in a fast rebound can move ahead of spot as traders rush to add long exposure. Its monthly distribution adds a small cushion for holders who wait. Investors who want the cleanest exposure to a recovery in XRP would favor XRPR; those who want income while they wait would favor XRPI.

Bear Case: XRP Breaks $0.99 and Both Funds Make New Lows

The downside case depends on the macro squeeze continuing and XRP’s floor giving way.

The first risk is a deeper Bitcoin decline. If Bitcoin falls toward $60,000 to $65,000, XRP would almost certainly break $1.00 and the $0.99 channel support.

The second risk is a hawkish Fed. A half-point hike in December would push yields and the dollar higher.

The third risk is ETF outflows. Sustained outflows from the spot XRP funds would remove a key source of demand.

The fourth risk is supply. Ripple’s December 1 escrow release could add tokens to circulation in a weak market.

The fifth risk is fund-specific. XRPI faces futures roll costs if contango widens, and its small size means outflows can force futures sales. XRPR’s 1.02% median spread and light volume mean it can trade at a discount to net asset value during fast selloffs.

The sixth risk is a psychological break. A sustained move below $1.00 in XRP could trigger selling from holders who viewed it as a floor.

The price path for XRPI is clear. A daily close below $5.39 triggers the bearish setup. The first target is $5.00. The second is $4.80, implied by XRP at $0.90. A move from $5.46 to $4.80 is a decline of 12.1%.

The price path for XRPR is clear. A daily close below $8.10 triggers the bearish setup. The first target is $7.70. The second is $7.30, implied by XRP at $0.90. A move from $8.33 to $7.30 is a decline of 12.4%.

The bear case would accelerate if Bitcoin breaks $65,000, if Nvidia disappoints on Tuesday, or if spot XRP ETF outflows exceed $50 million in a week. Any two of those together would put XRP at $0.80 and push both funds 20% below current levels.

The bear case also has a timing element. XRP’s $1.00 floor held through the spring and summer when the macro backdrop was calmer. This time it faces a Fed debating a half-point hike and a dollar at a 19-month high. Each failed test of $1.00 draws in fewer buyers, and a second test inside two weeks would carry higher odds of a break than Friday’s first one. Holders who bought XRPR above $20 or XRPI above $13 earlier in the cycle now sit on losses of 60%, a level where patience can give way to tax-loss selling into year-end.

Verdict: Bearish Below XRPI $5.83 and XRPR $8.90, Upside Targets $6.57 and $10.04 on a $1.00 Hold

XRPI closes the week at $5.46 after setting a new 52-week low of $5.39, and XRPR closes at $8.33, 2.8% above its 52-week low of $8.10. Both funds are down 13% on the week, 18% month to date and 60% from their 52-week highs, tracking XRP’s nine-day slide to $1.03 and its first trade below $1.00 since August.

The near-term bias stays bearish. The macro backdrop, with a December Fed hike 91% priced, a 19-month high in the dollar, a 10-year Treasury yield at 5.16%, Bitcoin below $69,000 and $14.2 billion of stablecoin outflows, argues against a quick recovery.

The institutional base is holding. The spot XRP funds hold 1.17 billion XRP and $1.16 billion in assets, with $1.79 billion of cumulative inflows. Outflows this week totaled $18 million. Wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP grew to 343,500. Those holders have not capitulated, and their presence explains why XRP recovered so quickly from below $1.00.

The levels are defined. For XRPI, $5.39 is the breakdown line, $5.83 and $6.25 the first resistance levels, and $6.57 the upside target, a 20.3% gain. For XRPR, $8.10 is the breakdown line, $8.90 and $9.57 the first resistance levels, and $10.04 the upside target, a 20.5% gain.

The catalysts are clustered. Nvidia reports Tuesday. Ripple’s escrow release lands December 1. The XRP Ledger upgrade arrives December 3. The Fed decides December 8 and 9.

The verdict for investors: XRPI is bearish below $5.83 and targets $6.57 once XRP’s $1.00 floor holds; XRPR is bearish below $8.90 and targets $10.04 on the same condition. XRPR offers cleaner spot exposure with no futures roll, while XRPI adds monthly income from its cash collateral. A daily close below $5.39 in XRPI or $8.10 in XRPR would confirm that XRP has broken $0.99 and open a further 12% decline in both. Until then, the combination of a leverage flush, steady spot ETF holdings and whale accumulation makes the current levels a zone where the next rally in XRP, and in both funds, is most likely to start.

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