Ripple XRP Price Forecast: XRP-USD Defends $3, Eyes Breakout to $6

Ripple (XRP-USD) Battles Volatility with ETF Optimism and Technical Strength

XRP Price Action and Market Behavior

Ripple’s XRP-USD has spent the past week swinging between aggressive profit-taking and renewed optimism tied to dovish Federal Reserve signals. The token fell sharply to $2.79 before rebounding above the $3.00 psychological threshold, ending Saturday near $3.01. That recovery was triggered by Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, which revived September rate cut expectations, sparking a surge in risk assets. Volume spiked to 667.4 million trades during the move from $2.84 to $3.03, nearly five times higher than session averages, confirming heavy institutional flows. The market is now watching closely whether XRP can sustain support at $2.97–$3.00, a level that has been repeatedly defended despite volatile intraday moves. Failure below $2.96 risks a drop toward $2.63, while a decisive break above $3.10 opens the door to $3.25 and beyond.

Institutional Flows and On-Chain Activity

On-chain settlement volumes on the XRP Ledger surged by 500% in August, peaking at 844 million XRP settled in a single day, underscoring that network usage is accelerating even as price action remains capped by whale selling. Exchange flow data showed net inflows of $76.8 million, indicating that short-term holders used the recent bounce to lock in profits. Despite those flows, futures open interest declined only modestly—by around 100 million XRP—suggesting that leveraged traders are not driving the pressure. With over 90% of supply still sitting in profit, analysts warn that further selling could persist if macro conditions deteriorate. At the same time, ETF optimism is counterbalancing bearish flows, attracting large-scale investors betting on the next structural breakout.

XRP ETF Momentum and Regulatory Shifts

Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC concluded this month, removing one of the largest regulatory overhangs for XRP. Within hours of the ruling, seven asset managers including Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree, 21Shares, and Grayscale filed amended S-1 applications for spot XRP ETFs. Bloomberg analysts now assign a 95% approval probability, with decisions expected in late October. JPMorgan forecasts $8 billion in inflows in the first year of trading if approval is granted, a scale that would place XRP alongside leading crypto ETFs. This dynamic has fueled a sharp repricing of risk, with traders layering bullish forecasts around ETF-driven capital flows. The ETF narrative is already visible in pricing, as XRP surged 8.56% in a single session when news of amended filings broke, alongside Powell’s dovish remarks. Approval would likely cement the $3.65 level as a launchpad for a broader rally toward $6–$10 in 2026.

Technical Resistance and Bullish Formations

Technically, XRP is forming a cup-and-handle pattern that suggests potential for an explosive breakout. Analysts such as CryptoBull project that a sustained move beyond $3.66 could trigger a rally to the $7–$8 zone, representing gains of more than 120% from current levels. Shorter-term, the $3.25–$3.30 range is the next test, with a break above that resistance setting up a challenge of July’s highs near $3.65–$3.66. RSI readings around 67 point to strong demand without overbought conditions, while MACD signals continue to favor upside momentum. Key support remains anchored at $2.96, where large institutional buyers stepped in during the liquidation-driven selloff that erased $105 million in long positions. The resilience at that level reinforces the bullish base, though rejection at $3.10 or $3.25 could force consolidation before the next leg higher.

Macro and Competitive Landscape

Ripple’s trajectory remains closely tied to macro dynamics. The hawkish tilt in FOMC minutes had briefly shaken the market, yet Powell’s follow-up commentary reversed sentiment. If rate cuts materialize in September, lower yields could fuel renewed appetite for risk assets, directly benefiting XRP and altcoins. Beyond macro, competition in cross-border payments is intensifying. Projects such as Remittix and Layer Brett are positioning themselves as faster, high-yield alternatives, with presale traction building speculative momentum. Still, Ripple retains unmatched institutional integration, with its ledger settlement activity dwarfing that of smaller competitors. The challenge remains whale-driven supply, as each rally has triggered distribution from large holders, capping momentum before critical resistance levels. Overcoming this dynamic requires a sustained catalyst—an ETF approval or structural inflows that overwhelm profit-taking supply.

Buy, Sell, or Hold?

At $3.01, XRP trades in a narrow but pivotal band where both bullish and bearish forces collide. The technical floor at $2.96 has held despite intense pressure, while ETF filings have injected fresh optimism into the market. The next breakout hinges on a close above $3.10, which would confirm upside momentum toward $3.25 and $3.65. With JPMorgan’s $8 billion ETF inflow forecast and bullish structures pointing to $6–$8 by 2026, XRP presents an attractive Buy for investors able to tolerate near-term volatility. For traders, risk lies in sharp pullbacks toward $2.63 if support falters, but the broader setup now tilts bullish with ETF-driven inflows set to reshape the market structure.

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